Tag Archives | OF

Player Profile #32: Ryan Braun | OF | MIL

By on February 21, 2012 | Comments { 4 }

There’s no question that Ryan Braun is one of the game’s best hitters, but with a 50-game suspension looming over his head it’s tough to take a chance on him in the first round. It’s too bad because Braun is coming off of his best season thanks to his career high 33 steals in addition to his usual .300-30-100 numbers. When drafting him, owners should take into account the replacement-level player that will take Braun’s place for the first 50 games. If you add both players’ seasons together you will almost definitely come out with a top 10 outfielder, which is why you don’t want to wait too long to draft Braun.

Best case scenario: His suspension gets revoked
Similar players: Matt Kemp (LAD), Curtis Granderson (NYY) with better BA, Justin Upton (ARI)
Worst case scenario: Suspension stays in place and he only plays 100ish games

Strengths

Everything. Braun is one of those rare players who absolutely contributes in every category. He’s a perennial 100-run, 100-RBI and .315 batting average threat. Add in the 30/30 potential and you have a fantasy monster for years to come. 

Weaknesses

Suspension. It’s been talked about a lot this offseason, but it looks like Braun will have to serve the 50 games. While this hurts his value, owners shouldn’t wait too long to draft him.

ADP Report (28.1)

When drafting Braun you have to consider the player you will play during his 50-game suspension. The combination of those two players is definitely close to a top 30 player and makes Braun well-worth this ADP. You don’t need any sabermetric stats to tell you that Braun can dominate a baseball and if you are in a keeper league you shouldn’t let the suspension deter you from taking him in the first round.

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Player Profile #35: Jay Bruce | OF | CIN

By on February 18, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Jay Bruce does something that’s rare these days and that’s hit home runs. That’s about all he does because he won’t contribute enough in steals to make a difference and his batting average will be mediocre thanks to his swinging strike rate (career 12.2%). His xBA has been consistently in the .260 range, which is what you should expect and that will hurt his value some. Still, the power is legit and if you plan ahead and compensate for the batting average he can be plenty valuable in fantasy.

Best case scenario: Hits 35-40 home runs
Similar players: Mike Stanton (MIA), Mike Morse (WAS), Lance Berkman (STL)
Worst case scenario: Nick Swisher (NYY)

Strengths

Power, home/road splits. Not only does Bruce have near-elite power, but he’ll only be 25 years old in April. I also like that his power is pretty consistent whether he’s at home or on the road (.226 home ISO/.209 road ISO).

Weaknesses

Batting average, streaky. While Bruce has a very good walk rate (career 9.6 BB%), he swings (and misses) at too many pitches to keep a consistent batting average. His contact rate (career 74.0%) is below the league average (~80.0%).

ADP Report (40.5)

While he’s more of a three-category contributor (R, HR, RBI), Bruce still provides plenty of value in fantasy. He also has a lot of upside given his age and if he can improve on his already good power he will be a great value in the late fourth/early fifth round.

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Player Profile #37: Matt Holliday | OF | STL

By on February 17, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Last year Matt Holliday was on pace for another Holliday-esque season, but a variety of injuries limited him to just 124 games. While the counting stats weren’t what we are used to, he actually posted a four-year high in ISO (.229) at 31 years old. While his power will start decreasing at some point, Holliday is as consistent as they come and will provide you with very good numbers across the board, but don’t expect much in steals. After stealing 28 bases in 2008, he’s only attempted 38 steals in the last three years.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy
Similar players: Hunter Pence (PHI), Josh Hamilton (TEX), Adam Jones (BAL) with more R/RBI
Worst case scenario: Andre Ethier (LAD)

Strengths

Consistency, balance, batting average. Even without that Albert Pujols guy, Holliday should be able to bring the same production to the table. Since his rookie year in 2004, he has hit over .300 in every season as a pro except for last year when he hit — wait for it — .296.

Weaknesses

Age, injuries. Holliday was hit with the injury bug last year and whether it’s a sign of wear and tear or his age catching up to him is to be determined. He’s only 32 years old, but at some point his production will start decreasing and you want to be ahead of the curb and sell high when that happens.

ADP Report (37.7)

Even with his age and injuries last year, I think Holliday is a safe bet to produce close to a top 20 hitter in 2012. Those in one-year leagues should have no issues spending a high pick on Holliday (I’d go even higher than 37th overall), but in keeper leagues, his age might be a deterrent that early.

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Player Profile #41: Hunter Pence | OF | PHI

By on February 16, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Hunter Pence is one of the most consistent outfielders on the planet. OK, the United States. Now that he’s escaped Houston for Philadelphia, he actually has some upside too. He should get plenty of RBI opportunities hitting in the middle of that lineup and maybe even approaches 30 home runs given his boost after being traded (11 HR in 207 ABs). The steals have gone down, but the uptick in power will even it out.

Best case scenario: Matt Holliday (STL)
Similar players: Adam Jones (BAL), Alex Gordon (KC), Aramis Ramirez (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Michael Cuddyer (COL)

Strengths

Power, RBI, consistency, home park. It will be exciting to see what kind of production Pence will bring now that he is in a real offense. A 30-100 season is on the high side (at least in terms of HR), but it’s not out of the question. Also factor in that Pence managed a cool .341/.408/.495 slash at his new home.

Weaknesses

Ground ball percentage. Perhaps if Pence didn’t hit the ball on the ground over 50 percent of the time he would be able to fully realize his power potential.

ADP Report (44.8)

Pence is a very safe pick and can be a low-end No. 1 outfielder or very good No. 2 outfielder. He might not have the power potential that Jay Bruce has or the top-10 upside that Carl Crawford possesses, but if you want someone who does everything very well, Pence is your guy. You can Pence-il (get it?) him in for a .280 batting average with 25 home runs, 90/90 R/RBI and five-plus steals.

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Player Profile #43: Carl Crawford | OF | BOS

By on February 15, 2012 | Comments { 2 }

No one saw 2011 coming for Carl Crawford, but it’s time to put it in the past. The man only put up consecutive top-five seasons in terms of PSR before taking his talents up North. He was very unlucky as his xBA was nearly 30 points higher than his actual batting average and a hamstring injury took him out for nearly a month (and bothered him for more). If you bump up Crawford’s batting average, runs and steals a little bit we are having a different conversation today. Now he will miss the first few weeks of the season, but you should look for Crawford to return to close his original value.

Best case scenario: Carl Crawford (BOS) pre 2011
Similar players: Desmond Jennings (TB), Shane Victorino (PHI), Drew Stubbs (CIN)
Worst case scenario: Brett Gardner (NYY)

Strengths

Speed, runs. Before 2010, Crawford had 107 steals in two seasons so you can expect him to contribute big numbers as long as he’s healthy. It’s hard to project Crawford’s run totals because of his uncertain lineup spot, but the Red Sox lineup is full of run producers so you’d think he’d be fine wherever he hits.

Weaknesses

Lineup spot, injuries. With so many big bats in the lineup, Crawford might find himself hitting seventh again in 2012. Obviously, the ideal spot would be second, but I’d say Dustin Pedroia has that locked down. Crawford also went through wrist surgery recently and will miss the first few weeks of the season, but a bum wrist can affect his hitting so there’s that to worry about as well.

ADP Report (39.9)

At first glance you would say this ADP was too low, but given his injury risk and uncertainty of whether he can handle the burden of the Boston media/huge contract, it’s about right. He has big upside (top 10), but with 2011 in recent memory it’s hard to bank on that production just yet. He has the potential to win people a lot of leagues this year.

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Player Profile #53: Nelson Cruz | OF | TEX

By on February 12, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

This might sound like an exagerration, but Nelson Cruz has been one of the best per-game fantasy baseball players over the last three years. If you take his per-game averages over the last three seasons and extrapolate them over 150 games you have the following player: .278/.338/.534 slash with 82.9 runs, 35 home runs, 100.4 RBI and 19.2 steals. Yes, that’s comparable to Justin Upton. Unfortunately that fun little exercise doesn’t really mean much because Cruz has about as much a chance of playing 150 games as I do winning the lottery (spoiler alert: I don’t play the lottery). So just make sure you prepare for Cruz to miss around a month and cherish the days he’s in the lineup.

Best case scenario: Mike Stanton (MIA) with more steals
Similar players: Josh Hamilton (TEX), Justin Upton (ARI) on a per-game basis, Jay Bruce (CIN) with more steals
Worst case scenario: Injuries catch up to him and he plays in fewer than 100 games

Strengths

Power/speed, RBI, lineup/ballpark. Not many possess the combination of home runs and steals that Cruz brings and batting in that lineup and ballpark give him plenty of advantages in RBI. He has a career slash of .306/.367/.576 at home (.233/.293/.432 away).

Weaknesses

Injuries, batting average. Cruz’s xBA’s have been all over the map (.237, .292, .260) in the last three years. I think Cruz is more of a .260-.270 hitter than a .290-.300 one because his contact rate is still lower than it should be (career 72.8 contact%, 13.2 SwStr%).

ADP Report (49.6)

If it weren’t for the injuries, Cruz would be at least a top 15 pick every season. Still, you’re getting a top 20 player for at least 100 games and if you manage your roster right, it could be a nice investment to make late in the fifth round.

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Player Profile #54: Michael Bourn | OF | ATL

By on February 12, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Michael Bourn is about as sure a thing as you can get in fantasy sports. You know you’re getting 50+ steals along with at least a .270 batting average, .340 on-base percentage and 90 runs aka Brett Gardner last year. Now that he’s on the Braves, you can probably tack on about 10 more runs and that .270 batting average is an absolute floor — he’s hit over .280 twice in the last three years. I should note that his 26.6 LD% will come down in 2012 and his batting average will come down as a result (his xBA last year was .281, which seems about right). Bourn will single handedly carry steals for you in roto leagues, which alone is a nice quality, but he has far outgrown the “one category contributor” title.

Best case scenario: Jose Reyes (MIA) with no power
Similar players: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Brett Gardner (NYY), Elvis Andrus (TEX) with more steals
Worst case scenario: Cameron Maybin (SD) with no power

Strengths

Steals, runs, lineup. The Braves lineup is strong and should give Bourn plenty of chances to cross home plate, which wasn’t the case when Bourn was in Houston.

Weaknesses

Power. Not that this comes as a surprise, but Bourn has absolutely no power to speak of (career .087 ISO) and batting leadoff gives him virtually no RBI opportunities.

ADP Report (56.5)

I’m glad to see that the fans are believing in Bourn because he definitely has the skill set to be a top 50 player. After finishing second (61), second (52) and first (62) in steals the last three years, Bourn is probably the favorite to finish on top again in 2012. Add in the new potential for 100 runs and Bourn should have no problem finishing in the top 30 in PSR.

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