Tag Archives | OF

Player Profile #198: Brennan Boesch | OF | DET

By on January 1, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

For two seasons now Boesch has put up very good numbers in the first half followed by a disappointing second half. It’s the reason why he’s more of  a late-round flier than anything else. We’ll have to see how his power comes back after tearing a thumb ligament that forced him to miss the final 1 1/2 months last year. In his career he has 605 at-bats in either the third or fifth slot in the lineup and is batting .291 (.223 in 287 at-bats anywhere else) so here’s to hoping that he stays near Miguel Cabrera!

Best case scenario: Michael Morse (WAS)
Similar players: Nolan Reimold (BAL), Jason Kubel (MIN), Casey McGehee (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Ryan Raburn (DET)

Strengths

Against lefties, streaky hitter. You want to start Boesch against lefty pitchers because he has a career .319/.380/.471 slash line (.254/.315/.425 vs. righties) and while being a streaky hitter isn’t techinically a strength, it can be if you are smart about it.

Weaknesses

Doesn’t walk much (OBP), streaky hitter. Streaky can be both good and bad, you just have to know when to jump ship and get back on. Last year, Boesch cut down on his swing percentage (51.8% from 57.3%), but his walk percentage didn’t get better (7.4% from 7.8%). That’s not a great sign for those in OBP leagues.

ADP Report (215.5)

Boesch isn’t a bad draft pick in the late rounds in your draft. Chances are he is going to continue being the player we’ve seen for two years, but that can be useful for a month-long stretch. Just be smart and play the trends (play him vs. lefties and at home) and he won’t disappoint. And hey, if he decides to put together a full season of good baseball you’ll have yourself a top 20 outfielder.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Jose Bautista: The modern day Barry Bonds

By on May 16, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Move over Albert Pujols there’s a new best hitter on the planet in town. Now if you would just allow me to sift through my collections of stat lines for a moment so that I can find him.

(Frantically tosses pieces of paper to the side)

Aha, here it is!

(Holds up white piece of paper with one line illuminated by a beam of light shining down from what seems like heaven)

32 G | 34 R | 16 HR | 27 RBI | 4 SB | .368 AVG | .520 OBP | .868 SLG

That, right there, is the fine work of Mr. Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays or as I like to call him—the modern day Barry Bonds (sorry if the title gave it away).

Bautista was one of the more interesting players to talk about during the offseason due to his sudden elite power. There were countless articles written about him and the conclusion was pretty much the same in all of them, including my preview:

Bautista is already a selective hitter, as he swings at only 41.7 percent of pitches, which is why he puts up very good walk totals. However, baseball is a game of adjustments, and Bautista will have to learn how to deal with pitches to the opposite field before he puts up another performance like he did in 2010.

Clearly Bautista reads Baseball Professor because so far he has fixed that problem of hitting to the opposite field, albeit in a small sample size, with a .714 ISO. Last year, his ISO was a mere .131 to the opposite field.

He has also improved what was already an exceptional approach at the plate with a spike in his walk rate (14.6% to 23.3%) and drop in his strikeout rate (20.4% to 16.7%). It’s evident that pitchers are afraid to give him anything to hit, but Bautista is patient enough that he will only swing at pitches that he can knock out of the park.

This is the transformation that Bonds went through after he starting hitting all those home runs. Pitchers avoided him at the plate and he avoided swinging at pitches off the plate.

I have to be honest, after Bonds left the game I didn’t think we would ever see anything like him again in baseball and here is Bautista just seven years later. I fully expect this continue and for this season only there isn’t another player that I would rather have than him especially given that he is eligible at the extremely shallow third base position. I am all in.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

It's Time To Give Alex Gordon Another Chance

By on April 7, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

I know you swore to yourself to never let Alex Gordon hurt you again.

You were giddy back in 2007 when you anticipated a rookie year for the ages only to have your expectations fall short. Chalk that up to growing pains you said to yourself, things will really click for him in his second year. So you spent a high draft pick on him the next year in hope of the anti-sophomore slump. Gordon was better that year, but still not nearly as good as expected.

After two mediocre years you weren’t ready to give up on all that talent. You drafted him as a post-hype sleeper and were pleased that you got him at a “discounted” price since most of your fellow league mates had already given up on him. He gave you a .232 batting average and six home runs for your “wise” investment.

Feeling betrayed heading into last season, you wanted to shake the bad habit known as believing in Alex Gordon. But his name stared back at you from the depths of the draft board. You couldn’t ignore the sirens any longer. I have to have him again, I can’t deal with him being successful on another team so you were compelled to invest in his services for the fourth year in a row. But after another disappointing season in which he batted .215  and hit only eight home runs you felt scammed. So you did the only thing any sensible person would do, you promised yourself never to trust Alex Gordon again.

I admire your strength for ignoring Gordon on draft day but I have some bad news for you: It may be time to give him another chance.

With two more hits yesterday, Gordon raised his batting average to .379. He also has seven runs, one home run, four RBI and six extra base hits. It’s not like he’s faced weak pitching either. He’s stepped into the batters box against Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, Gavin Floyd and Mark Buehrle. Most impressive about Gordon’s start so far is that he already has six hits in nine at-bats against left-handed pitching. For his career he’s struggled again southpaws, with a batting average of only .224 against them so this is an encouraging sign.

It’s possible that the move to left field has cleared Gordon’s mind. He no longer has to worry about becoming the next George Brett at third or being the face of the franchise since the Royals have so much young talent in the pipeline. At the magical age of 27 years old opposing pitchers might finally make sense to him. Sometimes it takes longer for players to adjust to the major leagues, and that includes players with Gordon’s pedigree.

Maybe you still don’t have confidence in him, but his manager certainly does. Ned Yost is so confident in Gordon’s ability that he has made him the Royals number three hitter.

Open up your circle of trust and give Gordon another chance. He won’t hurt you anymore if you add him to one your final roster spots. If this first week turns out to be just a tease send him packing. But if  Gordon finally breaks out and reaches his potential you can feel vindicated and tell him you always believed in him.

Read full story · Comments { 1 }

Don't Hate the Player, Hate the ADP: Jason Heyward

By on March 20, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Hype is a beautiful thing. Even if it’s warranted, as in the case of Jason Heyward, it still overrates a player.

A lot was expected from Heyward in his rookie season and he didn’t disappoint. As a 20 year old he managed a .277 batting average to go along with 83 runs, 18 home runs, 72 RBI and 11 stolen bases. Those numbers were good enough to make Heyward the 11th outfield taken on average in ESPN leagues with an ADP 43.5. Wait, really?

Heyward is definitely a once in a decade talent but let’s not put him in elite status yet. Maybe in 2012, but not in 2011. To be considered a number one outfielder in a 12-team league like many people are regarding Heyward, a player needs to be very good in multiple categories or exceptional in one while not being a liability in the others.

Heyward doesn’t fulfill either option yet. Although he’s above average in every category, he’s not that strong in any particular category yet.  His power is still developing as a 21 year old. Last year he hit one home run every 28.89 at-bats. In other words, Heyward hit a home run less frequently than both Lyle Overbay and Jeff Francoeur. Although he has base stealing ability, he’s unlikely to be a 20-plus base stealer. As for batting average, Heyward has an exception eye for the strike zone and I see him batting close to .300, but not any higher in 2011.

Let’s compare how Heyward’s numbers stacked up last year to a similarly hyped outfielder:

Jason Heyward: 520 AB | .277 BA | 83 R | 18 HR | 72 RBI | 11 SB

Jay Bruce: 509 AB | .281 BA | 80 R | 25 HR | 70 RBI | 5 SB

Even though Bruce is only 23 years old and his numbers were slightly better than Heyward’s last year, his ADP is 77.4, or 34 picks AFTER Heyward. I agree that Heyward should be the one drafted first but the difference shouldn’t be nearly this great.

There are also several outfielders being drafted after Heyward that will yield at least the same production such as Jayson Werth, Alex Rios and Hunter Pence. Sure they don’t have the same potential as Heyward but they’ll be available a couple of rounds later which will allow you to draft a stud starting pitcher, a top middle infielder or a top corner infielder.

If you’re in a keeper league however, all bets are off. Since Heyward’s potential is immense, I’m drafting him well before the 43rd pick. Unfortunately, most of us play in yearly leagues and Heyward doesn’t have the time to develop into one of the game’s best outfielders in only one year.

Yes, hype is a beautiful thing but it can still rear it’s ugly head, even when surrounding one of the game’s future stars.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Mike Morse: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on March 14, 2011 | Comments { 2 }

Mike Morse will be 29-years old on opening day and has just 237 major league games and 685 plate appearances to his credit. He spent four years languishing in the northwest as a member of the Mariners before moving to Washington and becoming a prominent part of the Nationals’ outfield rotation.

Morse accrued 293 of those 685 plate appearances last season after becoming a full-time starter in mid July, and he had pretty significant value in those final three and a half months by batting .289 with 15 homers. Morse won’t steal bases—it’s up to Jayson Werth, Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina to do that—but he is capable of hitting over .280 again with similar power output projected over more at-bats.

When Morse was in the lineup, he spent most of his time batting fifth through seventh. A 2011 projected lineup courtesy of Roto Champ has Morse slotted in sixth, sitting right behind Ryan Zimmerman, Werth and Adam LaRoche. That should give Morse a good amount of RBI opportunities.

Assuming 500 at-bats, which I think is reasonable, we could be looking at a 20-homer, 80-RBI season with a good batting average coming from a widely undrafted player.

Read full story · Comments { 2 }

Logan Morrison: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 20, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Logan Morrison is one of the more entertaining twitter users in baseball, but the guy can play too (you can follow him @LoMoMarlins by the way).

Much like Heyward, Morrison is another rookie who handles the strike zone like a veteran hitter. In Double-A and Triple-A, Morrison posted a 111:81 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which bodes well for his batting average. He showed that he could bring that plate discipline to the Majors with his 14.3 BB%, which ranked17th among hitters with at least 280 plate appearances.

The one knock on Morrison is his lack of power…err home runs. If you look at his ISO, Morrison’s power has been the same almost his entire career although his home run totals haven’t been quite as consistent. However, if Morrison can’t bring double-digit power he won’t (and shouldn’t) be regarded as a fantasy player worth starting in most leagues.

But there’s some hope that the home runs will come.

In 287 PA, Morrison only managed two home runs, but he hit 20 doubles, which puts him on pace to be among the league leaders in the category. As Morrison gets more comfortable hitting against the best pitchers in the country, he will learn to loft the ball a bit more and bring double-digit power. He hit fly balls just 32 percent of the time last year while hitting line drives 19.7 percent of the time so you know he makes good contact on the ball.

Morrison is a big guy, who stands at 6-foot-3, 245 pounds so he definitely doesn’t lack the size to develop some power.

Fantasy owners, in keeper leagues especially, should probably thank Morrison for the low home run total as it will definitely lower his value on draft day. Morrison has shown that he can handle himself at the plate and has passed every test thrown his way. Get while the gettin’ is good.

He should bat near the top of the Marlins order, which should help him score close to 85 runs.

2011 Fantasy Projection

86 R | .287 AVG | 12 HR | 63 RBI | 4 SB

Read full story · Comments { 1 }

Peter Bourjos: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 19, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

The existence of Peter Bourjos seems to be a secret. While perusing through ESPN’s Live Draft Results page I noticed that on average, people are taking Bourjos with the 260th pick. In case you didn’t know, the number 260 is ESPN’s designated number given to players who aren’t being drafted. Shockingly, Bourjos is owned in a mere 0.2% of ESPN leagues, the same percentage as Preston Wilson, a player that hasn’t donned a major league uniform since 2007.

Perhaps people are convinced that Bourjos won’t stick on the Angels major league roster. If that’s the case, they must not have heard manager Mike Scioscia’s comments regarding the Angels outfield situation:

“With Torii in right and Bourjos in center doing what he does and Vernon in left, we’re going to control a lot of the baserunning aspects that were troubling to us at some points early in the year.”

Simply put, the Angels like Bourjos’ defense too much to keep him out of the starting lineup.

You may notice that in 51 games last year Bourjos’ batting average was only .204 and conclude that he’s all glove. However, his BABIP of .228 was way too low for someone with his speed. Bourjos’ career minor league batting average of .293 also indicates that he should hit for a much higher average in 2011.

Despite rarely getting on base last season, Bourjos still managed to steal 10 bases. His ability to steal bases should not come as a surprise since he stole 50 bases in the minors in 2008. And as you know, Scioscia is notorious for giving his base runners the green light.

At this point Bourjos meet seem like a poor man’s Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn but there’s one problem with that- Bourjos has power.

In 595 at-bats last year split between Triple-A and the Angels, Bourjos hit 19 HR and his ISO with the big league club was an impressive .177. If you look at Pierre’s ISO you’ll notice that it was only .041. So comparing Bourjos to other speedy leadoff types is not quite accurate.

If you’re looking to compare Bourjos to somebody, Drew Stubbs might be a good comparison. Consider Bourjos a poor man’s Stubbs with less power but a probable higher batting average. Not bad for someone being undrafted in the majority of leagues.

Bourjos will only be 24 years old on Opening Day and he definitely has the potential to grow as a player. Instead of drafting a Nyjer Morgan-type in the late rounds, draft Bourjos instead.

2011 Fantasy Projection

68 R | .273 AVG | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 32 SB

Read full story · Comments { 3 }
  • 2012 MLB Closer Chart
  • About BaseballProf
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • xBA/xBABIP By Year
  • Contact
  • #TheseAreStats
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Buy/Sell
  • Daily Dozen
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • FAAB Five
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Power Rankings
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • Twice is Nice
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009