His situation was greatly upgraded last season when he was traded from the lowly Astros to the Atlanta Braves at the trade deadline. However, Bourn’s production (runs, average, stolen bases) remained the same after the trade. In a time where just changing teams makes players forget how to play baseball (i.e. Adam Dunn, Edgar Renteria or Jayson Werth anyone?) it’s reassuring that Bourn didn’t have that problem.

His batting average hovered around .300 after July and his stolen bases and runs were also basically the same. He had 10 three-hit games in four months before the trade and five three-hit games in two months with the Braves. Pencil in Atlanta’s historic late-season swoon and you have to think that he would have had better production if the Braves hadn’t tanked so badly.

Martin Prado, Dan Uggla, Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman would probably help any player in terms of production and protection. I think with a full season in this lineup opposed to the young, inexperienced lineup of Houston, Bourn can improve upon his numbers from 2011 (193 hits, 94 runs, 2 home runs, 50 RBI, .294 average, MLB-best 61 steals.) I think he can easily go for 100+ runs and 200 hits while maintaining the same average, runs and steals totals.

When it comes to draft position, he’s definitely a top-100 pick or a top-20 outfielder. He’s more valuable than one might think, and another thing I like is that he’s a proven commodity.

Of all the steal-heavy outfielders (Brett Gardner, Coco Crisp, Ichiro Suzuki, Juan Pierre, Angel Pagan and Austin Jackson), Bourn is the best. Of course, like everyone on this list, Bourn’s upside is limited because he possesses almost no power.

If you draft Bourn, getting a power-heavy outfielder isn’t a bad idea as they would compliment each other perfectly. Mike Stanton is the first that comes to mind, but also Nelson Cruz or Jay Bruce.

Whatever the case, you can do much worse than getting Bourn as one of your core four outfielders. He will get you the runs, hits (if they score hits) and stolen bases for you and he has a chance in 2012 to best his 2011 numbers with the Braves and Astros. Go fishing, but not before pick 70.

Best case scenario: Alex Gordon (KC)
Similar players: Nick Swisher (NYY), Chris Young (ARI), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Michael Cuddyer (COL)

Strengths

Walks, power/speed. The good news is that even in a down year Werth managed to draw walks 11.4 percent of the time. He was also one steal away from his third 20/20 season and while we’d like him not to have exactly 20 homers and 20 steals, it’s still not a bad accomplishment.

Weaknesses

Batting average, lineup, age. Werth’s .296 batting average in 2010 was a fluke thanks to a .352 BABIP (.307 xBABIP) so don’t expect him to come close to that mark again. It also concerns me how much his run and RBI totals fell with his switch to the Nationals and while I think they are getting better as a team, the top of the order could still use some work.

ADP Report (99.8)

Fantasy owners are ready to give up it seems as his ADP has plummeted after one down season. I think Werth has a shot at another .260/25/80 season with his usual 15-20 steals. That’s not what he was in Philadelphia, but it’s still a top 100 player.

Best case scenario: Justin Upton (ARI)
Similar players: Michael Cuddyer (COL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Shoulder injury comes back

Strengths

Plate discipline, power, age. His plate discipline took a step backwards last season, but he still has an above average career O-Swing% (26.1%) and OBP (.362), especially for someone his age. Also, his raw power is drool-inducing when you consider that he has 32 home runs in 916 at-bats (28.63 AB/HR) with a career 54.6 ground ball percentage.

Weaknesses

Ground balls, injuries. If Heyward can figure out how to hit more fly balls (career 29.7%) his home run totals would sky rocket. Unfortunately there have been no signs of that getting better so it’s just blind faith that he will keep improving as a hitter. It also doesn’t help that he spent almost the entire 2011 season nursing a shoulder injury.

ADP Report (108.3)

We at Baseball Professor are definitely buying into the potential that Heyward has, and I think he’s worth a gamble as early as the seventh round. I’ll admit that expectations for 2012 should be tempered, but in keeper leagues he shouldn’t be lasting past the fifth round because the potential is there for him to be a top-10 outfielder for the next 10 years.

Best case scenario: Josh Hamilton (TEX) assuming Hamilton misses about 30 games, which he usually does
Similar players: Nelson Cruz (TEX), Adam Jones (BAL), Carlos Santana (CLE)
Worst case scenario: Josh Willingham (MIN)

Strengths

HR, R, balance. If you thought Hart was destined to become a balanced 20/20 threat a few years back, join the club. Instead, he traded in the speed for power and now he’s a 30-homer threat. We’ll see where he bats in Milwaukee’s lineup (MLBDepthCharts.com has him slated at fifth right now with Braun factored in) but he could see a lot of time hitting ahead of Braun and new third baseman Aramis Ramirez. If that’s the case, Hart will be a good source of runs. Either way, he does a little bit of everything.

Weaknesses

Milwaukee’s deteriorating lineup, hitting on the road. With Fielder gone and Braun (for now) out of the lineup, Hart won’t be getting the same support he’s used to in Milwaukee. Hart’s also batted just .256 with 27 homers in 195 games on the road over the last three seasons versus .301 with 45 homers in 195 games at home over the same span.

ADP Report (89.8)

It seems mock drafters value Hart just like we do. He ranked 91 last year despite missing time due to injury, and even though he should play more games this season, the significant lineup changes in Milwaukee will likely counter any positive effect those extra games will have on Hart’s end-of-season stat line.

Best case scenario: Michael Bourn (ATL) with fewer runs
Similar players: Cameron Maybin (SD), Emilio Bonifacio (MIA), Coco Crisp (OAK)
Worst case scenario: Juan Pierre (PHI)

Strengths

Steals, batting average. Even at 37, Ichiro posted back-to-back 40-steal seasons with an 83.7 percent success rate. As for his batting average, I don’t see him posting a sub-.300 BABIP again so he should be back around .300.

Weaknesses

Age, power. Ichiro’s endurance over his career has been pretty amazing. He’s played in at least 161 games in seven of his last eight seasons, but you have to think age will catch up with him eventually.

ADP Report (104.9)

Even though Ichiro is on the downside of his career, he’s a pretty good value in the 11th round. Before, when Ichiro was being drafted as an OF1 he had to hit .330 to bring back equal value, but with his current ADP he only needs to hit around .300 to keep his owners happy. I think for the first time in his career we can say Ichiro is being underrated in drafts.

Best case scenario: B.J. Upton (TB) but with a little less pop
Similar players: Emilio Bonifacio (MIA), Angel Pagan (SF), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) with a .250 average
Worst case scenario: Loses his starting job and is reduced to being a pinch runner

Strengths

Speed, vs. LHP. The speed we’ve already covered. Maybin doesn’t have a ton of major league experience, but he did bat .296 versus left-handed pitchers last season.

Weaknesses

RBI, park/lineup, reliability. The park and lineup have already been recounted so I won’t cover that again. Maybin did tally just 40 RBI last season, but he did that batting all over the San Diego lineup. This season he’s currently slated to bat third. Will that continue, and, even if it does, can Maybin actually be a good bat for the middle of the Padres’ order?

ADP Report (101.5)

Maybin ranked 82nd last season and should drive in more runs by virtue of his lineup slot, but you should know there’s an inherent amount of risk selecting Maybin anywhere in the 90-110 range. There are safer options available, but if he gets regular playing time (which he should, barring injury) and he still runs like last season, this is where he’ll likely end up ranking.

Best case scenario: B.J. Upton (TB)
Similar players: Drew Stubbs (CIN), Jeff Francoeur (KC), Andrew McCutchen (PIT) with a lower BA
Worst case scenario: Ryan Roberts (ARI)

Strengths

Power, speed, run/RBI combo. Young has been a 20/20 player in each of the last two seasons and added in a third 20/20 year back in 2007. For his career, he averages 23 homers and 21 steals per 156 games (the exact amount he’s played the last two seasons). Young tends to bounce around the Arizona lineup, but in general he’s their fifth hitter. Batting behind Justin Upton and Miguel Montero, two very good bats, should equal plenty of RBI despite the low average, and his speed is enough to help him elevate his run total…again, despite the low average.

Weaknesses

Batting average. Young will be lucky to bat .257 again, and something right around .240 is what we should expect. If he was even able to bat .270 he’d be a top 25-50 option, but that’s a pipe dream.

ADP Report (125.0)

People really hate Young. Because of his low average, everyone seems to assume he’s more of a detriment to your team than he really is, but having a player like Young allows you to take on other undervalued players like Michael Young who can give you a great batting average but don’t help you much in homers or steals. Last season Michael Young finished 46th and Chris Young finished 99th, but because of their perceived shortcomings their ADPs this season are 71 and 125, respectively. Pairing them would produce incredible combined value and be a shrewd move.

Best case scenario: Corey Hart (MIL) sans steals
Similar players: Torii Hunter (LAA), Logan Morrison (MIA), Nelson Cruz (TEX) when Cruz has an extended DL stint
Worst case scenario: Josh Willingham (MIN)

Strengths

Lineup, power, consistency. Swisher can approach 30 homers with over 80 runs and RBI. It’s hard to see him not putting up these numbers. Seriously, there’s very little analysis needed here. Swisher is what he is.

Weaknesses

Speed, batting average. His batting average has fluctuated a bit over the last three seasons, but his xBA was nearly identical in the last two. Swisher is a .270-.275 hitter and won’t steal bases.

ADP Report (122.9)

Swisher had a down year last season and still finished the year ranked right at this ADP. He’s a great bet to replicate his 2010 numbers, average aside, which makes him a top 75-100 player. This is one of the best values in the outfield.

Best case scenario: 2011′s Melky Cabrera (SF) without the steals
Similar players: Dexter Fowler (COL), Nick Markakis (BAL), light version of Michael Young (TEX)
Worst case scenario: Another 2011 season

Strengths

Batting average, runs, home park. We’ve covered the fact that Prado is a .300 hitter on a normal year and with that .300 batting average comes 90-100 runs, which is very good for a third baseman/outfielder. He’s also very comfortable hitting at home with a .309/.349/.458 career slash at Turner Field.

Weaknesses

Health, dependent on BABIP. Hopefully there are no long term repercussions from Prado’s staff infection in his leg last year because it clearly had an effect on his production when he returned from it. Also a player that fits Prado’s profile (contact hitter, doesn’t draw walks) will need a little luck on his side to maintain consistent success over a full season.

ADP Report (191.1)

This might be the most the public disagrees with the professors in our entire top 200 ranks. To me, Prado going in the 20th round of a standard league draft is ridiculously low. Given that he has position eligibility at two fairly shallow positions (especially if you’re in a five OF league) he should be going at least in the top 140. All you have to do is look at his PSR rank in his breakout 2010 season (79) to know the kind of upside he brings and why he should be a top 120 pick.

The good news for Orioles fans, Markakis owners and our current rankings is that, despite offseason surgery, Markakis is projected to be ready by Opening Day. Back in 2008, Markakis hit 20 homers and clubbed 48 doubles. It was his second straight 20-homer, 45-double season, and most figured those doubles would eventually turn into homers as Markakis aged (sound familiar, Billy Butler?). They didn’t, and instead of adding home runs it seems Markakis has seen his best power days come and go. He’s still a fairly balanced fantasy option with his ability to bat over .280, threaten 20 homers and crack double digits in steals, but he doesn’t do any one thing very well and Baltimore’s offense can still only be described as “disappointing.”

Best case scenario: Hunter Pence (PHI)
Similar players: Michael Cuddyer (COL), Seth Smith (COL), Melky Cabrera (SF)
Worst case scenario: Jason Bay (NYM)

Strengths

vs. RHP, second half. Over the last two years Markakis has averaged one homer every 37 at-bats versus right-handed pitchers. That’s not necessarily very good, but it’s a heck of a lot better than his homer rate against lefties. We’ll get to that. For whatever reason, Markakis also flexes his muscle a lot more in the second half than the first half, averaging a homer every 43 at-bats before the All-Star Break for his career and one every 29 at-bats after the break. If you think that’s more a product of his 20-homer power early in his career, rest assured that it’s not. I checked.

Weaknesses

Power vs. LHP. One hundred twenty-six. That’s how many at-bats Markakis goes between homers against left-handed pitchers. Again, 126. He hits lefties for a good average, career .289, but the power is completely nonexistent. If he played a full season against lefties, he’d hit just five home runs. Five. That’s what Elvis Andrus does.

ADP Report (125.9)

Go for it. Markakis at his worst (2010) ranked exactly at this ADP, 126th overall, and I just can’t imagine him finishing a year worse that 79 runs, 12 homers, 60 RBI, seven steals and a .297 average. Even last year, when he didn’t hit 75 runs or RBI, his balance was enough to make him the 99th-ranked player overall and the 37th-ranked outfielder. His outfield rank last year doesn’t exactly jump out at you, but (by my count) at least four to seven of the players ranked ahead of him were starters at other positions, making Markakis a solid third outfielder in 10- and 12-team leagues. Plus, the tier of players directly after him (Angel Pagan, Juan Pierre, Torii Hunter, Carlos Lee, Austin Jackson) are a lot less reliable than the Orioles’ resident Mr. Disappointing.