Here we are, Draft Weekend. So maybe that’s not a real thing, but with Opening Day fast approaching leagues are starting to get their drafts in gear and what better way to prepare with some bold predictions!
1. Dexter Fowler finally breaks out and scores 100 runs with 30 steals.
Odds: 25 percent
How can someone with Fowler’s speed and ability to get on base (career .355 OBP)have such a hard time stealing bases (career 65-percent success rate)? That question we may never be able to answer, but he’s entering his fourth season as a pro (26 years old) and is coming off a great second half where, among outfielders, he ranked T-5th in runs (51), 1st in triples (10), T-19th in steals (10) and 9th in OBP (.381).
Reports out of Rockies camp claim that Fowler has been working on his stolen base techiques and if everything works out we could see a true breakout campaign in 2012.
2. Peter Bourjos hits 15 home runs and steals 30 bases.
Odds: 25 percent
Bourjos is another outfielder who came on strong in the second half last season, posting a .270 batting average with 39 runs, nine home runs and 11 steals in 215 at-bats. He doesn’t walk much, so his on-base percentage will rely heavily on his batting average, but he has the speed to steal any base when he does get on. Look for him to be more comfortable and aggressive on the base paths in his sophomore season.
3. Giancarlo Stanton finishes 2012 outside the top 15 among outfielders.
Odds: 15 percent
Stanton has been sort of a staple on Baseball Professor this preseason as we think he is being quite overrated on draft day. His current ADP is 26.12 and the big problem with that is he’s only elite in one category (HR). Sure, he gets a decent amount of runs, but we don’t expect 100 anytime in his near future. He should up his RBI with the addition of Jose Reyes, but I still see 100 as a ceiling and you aren’t getting anything in terms of steals or batting average.
The scenario that we’ll keep shoving down your throats is Stanton vs. Michael Bourn. Bourn, who’s going at pick 53.04 is an elite contributor in at least two categories (R, SB) and at least has the potential to hit .300 even though he’s probably closer to a .285 hitter. Yes, generally home runs are harder to find, but not in the third round where Stanton is going in almost every draft.
4. Jeff Francoeur finshes higher than Matt Holliday in 2012 PSR.
Odds: 10 percent
This prediction has a lot more to do with Holliday than it does Francoeur. I’m worried about Holliday, who showed some signs of breaking down last year and while he’s a tough guy (he came back from an appendectomy in less than two weeks for God’s sake his production can be limited even if he does get on the field. Then there’s also the fact that Albert Pujols is gone and all Holliday has hitting around him is the oft-injured Lance Berkman and the often-more-injured Carlos Beltran. It seems that the odds are stacked against Holliday this season and I don’t want to be the guy paying for the season he finally disappoints.
For Francoeur, other than being my least favorite last name to spell, he will probably see some reduction in his 2011 numbers. What we saw was Frenchy at his best in almost every category and while I think the steals are semi-legit I see him more as an 18-homer, 16-steal guy rather than a 20/20 player.
5. Logan Morrison puts it all together for a nice .280-85-25-90-5 line.
Odds: 20 percent
The good thing about Morrison is that he got paired with a manager who might love Twitter more than he does. We know that he can hit .280 and 25 home runs is certainly in his reach. If he can reach both marks the rest of the counting stats should fall right in place give his spot batting fifth in a surprisingly solid lineup.
6. Lucas Duda finishes in the top 25 among outfielders.
Odds: 30 percent
The man known as El Dudarino had a very productive rookie season posting numbers very close to his minor league track record. He has the profile of a decent power hitter (6-foot-4, 250 pounds) who knows his way around a strike zone (9.5 BB%). Last season, he hit fly balls 47 percent of the time and his ISO was a decent .189.
If he had played enough for 650 plate appearances, he would have hit close to 18 home runs. Now that the Mets are bringing the walls in, expect a slight power surge that could push him over the 20-homer threshold and make him a viable outfielder in all leagues.
7. B.J. Upton ends 2012 as a top-five OF.
Odds: 20 percent
Oh Bossman Junior (yes, that’s what B.J. is short for), I can never seem to shake you. Every year I try to convince myself to forget about Upton and just go on with my life, but he always sucks me in somehow. Let’s get one thing straight; while a lot of people hate on him for his horrible batting average, his yearly 20/40 potential still makes him damn useful in fantasy. He also takes a lot of walks (11.2 BB%), which helps him get on base despite the poor batting average. But’s that not the main reason I like him in 2012. He’s in a contract year!
He’s been in a three-year battle with the Rays getting slight increases in arbitration, but he has yet to really cash in big with a long-term deal. Well, that’s coming if he ups his play in 2012 and he knows it. Nothing like a little green to motivate an uber-talenter player who’s been resting on his laurels for the better part of three seasons now. And I’m sucked right back in again.
8. Drew Stubbs breaks the strikeout record…by 10 strikeouts.
Odds: 15 percent
The best comparison I can come up with when thinking of Stubbs is the aforementioned Upton without the plate discipline. That’s a downright scary thought. Stubbs has increased his strikeout rate in every season, ending with a 30.1 strikeout percentage in 2011 that helped him score the third-highest strikeout total in MLB history (205).
The problem with Stubbs begins and ends against right-handed pitching (7.9 BB%/30.9 K% with a .226/.293/.338 slash). Compare those with his numbers against left-handed pitching (14.9 BB%/26.9 K% with a .319/.418/.478 slash) and you see a completely different hitter. Unfortunately, right-handed pitching is much more common in the majors as evidenced by his 547 PAs against righties versus only 134 against lefties.
9. Bryce Harper gets called up in May and hits 20 home runs, while Mike Trout stays in Triple-A until September.
Odds: 25 percent
Harper has dominated every level of baseball he has played and the Nationals might have no choice but to call him up once his Super Two deadline passes (usually sometime in May). For the record, I actually don’t know how good Harper was back in his tee ball days, but wouldn’t it be funny if he absolutely sucked and all the kids made fun of him? We’ll never know.
Alas, he’s about ready to contribute in a big way in the majors and at the very worst should be able to showcase that sweet power that he brings. We might not see a Ryan Braun-type dominance right away (c’mon, the kid is only 19!), but if all goes according to plan we might be talking about Harper as a top 10 outfielder as soon as 2013. I love the hype machine!
10. Allen Craig will be the best fantasy hitter on the Cardinals.
Odds: 15 percent
OK, OK, this is my last unintentional shot at Holliday. I’m a big-time fan of his, I swear! Anyways, here’s a fun fact courtesy of ESPN’s funny man/love expert Matthew Berry: Craig hit a home run every 18.1 at-bats in 2011. Yes, that’s the same as notable power hitter David Ortiz. We weren’t sure that Craig would be ready until possibly June after knee surgery in December, but the Cardinals haven’t ruled him out for Opening Day just yet. That alone should let you feel good about his prospects of returning sometime in April or May.
He’s a career .307 hitter in the minor leagues and always possessed close to 30-homer power when extrapolated over 160 games. He’s been right around those numbers in his limited time in the Majors, and if he can finally stay healthy he will provide big time value for those that took the chance late in their drafts.
