Tag Archives | Josh Johnson

The Morning After: Apr. 11

By on April 11, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Saturday was an exciting day in baseball. C.C. Sabathia came within four outs of no-hitting the Rays, the Giants and Rockies battled it out for 14 innings and Jason Varitek came back from the dead and homered twice. If you started Varitek please email me because I would like to talk to you about a potential Vegas trip and some stocks.

On to the happenings of Saturday afternoon/night.

Saturday’s Best: C.C. Sabathia (NYY) – 7.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Saturday’s Worst: Ryan Doumit (PIT) – 0-for-4, 4 K

Tigers 4, Indians 2

I knew the Indians’ offense was going to be bad, but they only managed three hits (all singles) against Jeremy Bonderman and co.? C’mon! … The Indians aren’t really bringing anything in the pitching department either as they have walked at least five batters four of their five games. … Magglio Ordonez is doing his best to prove that he is not done hitting and now has two home runs on the season and leads the American League with a .476 batting average.

Twins 2, White Sox 1

The White Sox have four starters batting below the Mendoza Line and Carlos Quentin leads all with a whopping .267 batting average. I liked this team in the preseason and I would be patient as I think they figure it out soon. … Scott Baker showed off his great control as he  walked just one in seven innings for the win.

Nationals 4, Mets 3

Owning Oliver Perez is like playing the lottery every five days; sometime you win big, but most of the time he burns you. … The big news is the return of Jose Reyes who batted leadoff and collected a hit in his first game back.

Cubs 4, Reds 3

Alfonso Soriano went deep for the first time this season, but the emergence of Tyler Colvin might cut into his playing time this season. … Carlos Zambrano showed us why we shouldn’t overreact to just one start and pitched a strong seven innings (3 ER, 9 K, 8 RA). … It was nice to see Aaron Harang put up a goose egg in the walk column because if he can figure out his control issues maybe he can return to his pre-2008 form.

Yankees 10, Rays 0

C.C. Sabathia had his no-hitter broken up with just four outs to go, which is a good sign because usually he is a slow starter. … Mark Teixeira finally got his first hits of the season as he went 3-for-4. … Don’t look now, but Brett Gardner has a .467 OBP after the first week and has scored 80 percent of the time he’s gotten on base. Also, he has three steals and could be a very cheap source of steals and runs on your team. … Not to be lost in the blowout, Evan Longoria had a steal with Sabathia on the mound; he will give you a sneaky 10 steals on the season.

Cardinals 7, Brewers 1

Jaime Garcia‘s first start for the Cardinals was a great one and he’s worth a look in deeper leagues. … After he showed us what he can do in the Cardinals’ lineup last year, it’s no surprise that Matt Holliday has a .476 batting average through the first five games of the season. … It’s not a good sign that Yovani Gallardo is already struggling this season as he has shown in the past that he only gets worse as the season progresses.

Mariners 4, Rangers 3

Franklin Gutierrez is touted as the best defensive outfielder in the majors, but he is no slacker at the plate either. He’s batting behind Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins, which will make it almost impossible for him to reach 100 RBI this season. … Not a great start for Milton Bradley (.048 BA) who is being heavily relied on by the Mariners for his power. … Nice to see Felix Hernandez bounce back after walking six batters in the opener. … David Aardsma is doing his best to prove that 2009 was no fluke and now has two saves and four strikeouts in two innings of work. … Speaking of closers, what’s up with Frank Fransisco? He already has two blown saves and it seems that he is handing over closing duties to youngster Neftali Feliz.

Phillies 9, Astros 6

It would be an understatement to say that the Phillies’ offense is on  fire as five of their eight regular starters have a batting average over .368. … Felipe Paulino, who is a sleeper for many because of his strikeout potential, will have to figure out how to keep guys off base before I consider him a safe waiver wire pickup. … Matt Lindstrom better get his act together or else he will be losing his closers role to Brandon Lyon very soon.

Blue Jays 3, Orioles 0

After blowing his first save opportunity, Jason Frasor has converted three consecutive saves. … A lot of us loved the Baltimore offense coming into the season, but up until now it has been all Matt Wieters (.389 BA) with very little help from everyone else. … Vernon Wells finally came back down to earth with an 0-for-3 day and if you can trade him for top value I would jump on the opportunity.

Marlins 7, Dodgers 6

Gaby Sanchez is doing his best to keep Logan Morrison in the minors and I would say a .353 batting average and his first home run of the season is a good sign. … Not a great start for Josh Johnson, who now has a 10:7 K:BB ratio this season. … Russell Martin went 2-for-2 and is now batting .364 on the season with at least one walk in every game. … Rafael Furcal had his third straight multi-hit game and has three steals after a miserable 2009 season.

Red Sox 8, Royals 3

The Red Sox must have had a nice breakfast buffet because they hit five home runs, two of which came from Jason Varitek and one from Jeremy Hermida. … Josh Beckett pitched seven solid innings and seems to be fine after his opening day troubles. … Zack Greinke surrendered two home runs and let up four earned runs (he let up four earned runs just once last season).

Pirates 6, Diamondbacks 3

Maybe Dan Haren is trying to not dominate as much in the first half so his second half struggles don’t seem as bad. That’s the only explanation I have for letting up five earned runs and nine hits in 6 2/3 innings pitched against the Pirates. … A nice start from Zach Duke ()who now has two wins on the season and his next start is against Cincinnati.

Padres 5, Rockies 4 (14 inn.)

He did let up three long balls, but Mat Latos (7 IP, 4 ER, 4 K) was very good otherwise. He pitches in a great home ballpark and could be a very good matchups play in 10-team leagues this year. … Not a bad day for Chase Headley who went 3-for-5 with two walks on the day. … Ian Stewart continues his hot start with a 3-for-6 day and could finally be ready to break out now that he has an everyday job.

Angels 4, Athletics 3

Ben Sheets continues to struggle (6 IP, 13 RA, 1 K) and it seems like everyone’s favorite sleeper is rapidly losing followers. … On the other side, Jered Weaver has another good start to a season. Hopefully he can keep it up past the All-Star break this year. … If Hideki Matsui (3-for-5, 2 RBI) can stay healthy (and as a DH that shouldn’t be hard) he should continue to put up very good numbers hitting fourth for the Angels.

Braves 7, Giants 2

Somehow Derek Lowe let up just one run despite walking seven batters and now has a K:BB ratio of 7:10. … Jason Heyward (3-for-3, 2 RBI) hit his second home run of the season, but before you start buying into the hype of this 20-year old remember that he will be prone to slumps in his first major league season. … Martin Prado (2-for-4) has been on a tear to start the season and leads the National League with a .600 batting average.

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Apr. 8: Cliff Lee Making Progress, Hideki Matsui to Start In Left, and Nelson Figueroa to Philly

By on April 8, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

The season is starting to gain momentum, and so are we. Here are the Fantasy Headlines for Thursday, April 8:

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Mound Visit – SP Top 50, Week 1

By on April 7, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

On March 2, we released our 2010 starting pitching tier rankings.

In the five weeks in between, we’ve seen some surprisingly dominant performances and some lingering injury concerns, both of which have had an effect on our top 50 rankings for starting pitchers.

The top 10 remain relatively unchanged, the only difference being Jon Lester‘s 200-plus strikeouts supplanting Chris Carpenter‘s dominant ERA and WHIP. However, the top 10 are only a small portion of the pitchers we need to be concerned with, so in this weekly article we’ll profile the position as a whole and name some players who are rising or falling as well as updating injury situations and bringing up a few names in the minors that you’ll soon need to know.

Surging

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins

In our composite preseason tier rankings, George, Chris and I had Nolasco ranked 24th among starters and knocking on the door of tier two. With an absolutely lights-out spring (25.1 IP, 21 K, 1 BB, 1.78 ERA) and great peripherals in 2009, I’m pushing the Marlins co-ace up 11 spots to 13. Among all starters I have ranked from 12 on, Nolasco has as much or more upside than any of them, and that goes for Tommy Hanson and Brett Anderson as well. Nolasco was eighth in xFIP last season despite an ERA over 5.00 and he has impeccable control. In fact, his strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last two seasons is 4.43. If you’re not letting batters put the ball in play and you aren’t issuing free passes, you’re going to put up great numbers.

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics

I just mentioned Anderson in passing, but he is more than an afterthought. Our composite tier rankings had him ranked 31st, but I’m pushing him up to 19. If you haven’t noticed I’m a sucker for potential, but I’m not an idiot. Anderson is as good an option as any pitcher outside of the top tier because he has dominant stuff and plenty of poise on the mound. His strikeout-to-walk ratio as a rookie was 3.33, which is good, but it pales in comparison to his 5.06 career minor league ratio. Plus, Anderson finished strong last year with a 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts in 88 second-half innings. Even if he fails to improve upon those numbers during his sophomore season, you’re still looking at a top-30 starter. I’ll take the chance he can be better.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

Liriano had 30 strikeouts in 20 innings this spring. His stuff looked better than it has since surgery derailed his promising career, and you can still get him at a reduced price. Every fantasy owner should be trying to buy this guy right now, and the only thing hurting his ranking is the uncertainty that comes along with his left arm. If healthy Liriano could provide a return as a top-10 starter, but he could also blow up in April and spend the rest of the season trying to come back.

Falling

Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners

I’ll admit I am still skeptical over Lee’s success these last two seasons. He won a Cy Young Award in the American League and then was traded to a hitter’s haven in Philadelphia and pitched better than ever. Why am I so nervous about this guy? Honestly, I shouldn’t be, but his recent injury is finally giving me an excuse to not like Lee. As Chris said in our podcast preview of starters, an oblique injury is particularly troubling for a pitcher. You can’t mask the pain or change your delivery to lessen the strain since every pitch involves a twisting motion. I think it’s fair to say that reduced velocity and bite on his pitches is a legitimate concern, and until he proves he’s healthy, I’m not risking a top pick on Lee.

Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Any surprise here? Webb’s timetable keeps getting pushed back – or so it seems – but that may be more of an illusion than anything. Team doctors said Webb was overly optimistic about an early-April return so when news came out that he was going to be sidelined longer, fantasy owners didn’t take it well. Still, I don’t like taking a chance on a starter who made one start last year and has taken over a full 12 months to recover.

Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins

To be fair, I thought it was a bit premature to put a red arrow next to Johnson’s name. Consider this his final warning. I’ve been cautioning fans all winter about relying too heavily on Johnson’s overworked right arm, and then he comes up empty against the Mets in the season opener. With four walks and four earned runs in five innings pitched – including a home run to David Wright – Johnson was far from the ace he needs to be, both for the Marlins and for fantasy owners. He’s barely clinging onto top-20 status as Cole Hamels, Hanson and Anderson are ready to jump at the chance to pass one of 2009′s breakout starters.

On the mend

Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs

Original reports said that Lilly would miss all of April and return sometime in May. Go ahead and push that timetable up a month. Lilly is scheduled to join the Cubs’ rotation before the end of April, and he’ll immediately assume his former role of “most underrated fantasy starter.” Why don’t people take this guy more seriously? In his three seasons with the Cubs, Lilly is 44-22 with an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.15. Seriously. Why?

Down on the farm

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays

You can’t say enough about the job that the current Rays ownership has done with this once embarrassing franchise. They changed the team’s name and logo, reinventing the organization and reinvigorating the public, but then they were able to follow that up with a complete overhaul of their management philosophy. Instead of signing high-priced, over-the-hill veterans like Wade Boggs, Vinny Castilla and Fred McGriff, they elected to build from within with solid drafts and outstanding player development. The result is a yearly title contender that somehow keeps getting better.

Behind the current batch of potential stars, guys like Wade Davis, David Price, James Shields, Carl Crawford, Ben Zobrist, and Matt Garza (even though he came over in a trade for another highly touted prospect, Delmon Young), there is another set of future stars. Leading this bunch is the oft-named but not-currently-valued Jeremy Hellickson. Should Davis falter or someone goes down with an injury and a rotation spot opens up, there is a good chance the Rays could call up Hellickson. In 461 minor-league innings, all Hellickson has done is post a 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.07. His MLB.com scouting report only adds fuel to the fanfare:

Stuff plus a feel for pitching can be a lethal combination and Hellickson has them both. He can get his fastball into the mid 90s and he can throw both his curve and changeup for strikes, the latter of the two now a plus offering. He’s got great command and goes right after hitters.

When he gets a chance, Hellickson is a must-add along the lines of Mat Latos, Brian Matusz, and fellow-Ray, Davis.

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Jered Weaver, Edwin Jackson, or Matt Garza?

By on March 6, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

We go back to the Mailbag today, answering a question we received from Joe. It was actually five questions nicely rolled into one email, so let’s see what we’ve got:

“I’d like to ask you some questions below.  I’m preparing for my 10-team Keeper Draft.  Please have the “keeper” aspect in mind.

Keeper Categories: Standard 5×5
  1. Billy Butler or Jay Bruce? (for utility position, choose 1)
  2. Josh Johnson in Rd. 7, or Ricky Nolasco in Rd. 8?
  3. What is your belief in Francisco Liriano ever becoming a dynasty/keeper force?
  4. Do you believe in “contract years?”  Is Carl Crawford going to go nuts for a payday?
  5. Jered Weaver, Edwin Jackson, or Matt Garza?
Thanks, as always.

-Joe”

Those are some tough questions, Joe, particularly the three player comparisons.

1. Tough call between Butler and Bruce, but I give the edge to Bruce for two reasons. First, Butler’s value falls victim to the position he plays at. He has what it takes to be a perennial .300 hitter with 30 HR potential and maybe 100 RBI when the Royals lineup improves, but that still makes him middle-of-the-pack at that position. Even if he’s primarily going to be a utility guy, position is still a major factor. Second, Bruce is going about 20 picks later on average.

2. I’m all over Nolasco this year. His second half was fantastic (once again), he’s an elite K pitcher, and as much as I like Nolasco, I don’t like Josh Johnson. I’ve said it before, but do you really want a pitcher who recently underwent major surgery, threw the most innings of his career by far and just signed a big, long-term deal? I don’t.

3. Francisco Liriano could become a great pitcher once again, but at this point it would just be a nice surprise. There’s no way I’m investing anything other than a late-round pick in him, and I’d rather have guys like Derek Holland, Mark Rzcepczynski or Brian Matusz.

4. Contract years are a major factor for players, and you should know who’s contract is due up. That said, I have a hard time seeing Crawford besting last year’s numbers. If anything, maybe a couple more RBI.

5. For me, it’s a tie between Garza and Jackson, but if I had to go with one guy it would be Jackson. He has improved dramatically over the last three seasons and just moved to the NL West and has the luxury of being the third man in the rotation for a deceptively good team. Garza will probably strikeout more people, so if that’s a need of yours then there’s nothing wrong with getting him, but the AL East has a lot of good offenses.

Hope that helps. Email us if you have any more questions.

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Who should I keep in my auction league?

By on February 23, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

We thought that it would be a good idea to post real email conversations we have with real readers every now and again. Our guess is that if someone has a question they need to email us about, chances are someone else might be facing the same dilemma. It wouldn’t be fair of us to share the answers with just one person, would it? Of course not!

Kicking off our Mailbag series, we have a question from Paul coming from way back on January 31.

Paul writes:

“Good Day Gents,

I play in a 14 team, 5X5, 11 Positional + 8 Pitcher, $210 budget, Auction League with one keeper allowed.

The players listed below are the candidates from my team.  As a reference … these were the salaries of other players in our league:  Pujols ($45), Braun ($39), Lincecum ($33), Haren ($29), etc.  Top-tier players in our league go for a lot of money.

I’m hopeful your expertise can assist me making a tough decision … who to keep?  I want to get the best bang for my buck.

  • Justin Upton @ $24
  • Nyjer Morgan @ $6
  • Josh Johnson @ $21
  • Ubaldo Jimenez @ $13
  • Joe Blanton @ $8

Thank you very much.”

No, Paul. Thank you very much. This gives us a chance to dive into the fascinating world of auction leagues where you need a different skill set to win. It’s kind of like transitioning from Limit to No-Limit Texas Hold ‘em. The game is basically the same, but you can’t play it the same way.

After looking over your league specifications, the players you can keep, and other players of similar value, we think you should keep Justin Upton. He could produce near the level of Ryan Braun but at a fraction of the price. He’s only 22 years old and is getting drafted in non-auction formats as early as late-first to second round. While there are a ton of stats to justify why Upton is the guy to keep, we don’t even need them. His price tag of $24 is just too good of a bargain. If Braun is going for $39, I’d pay $35 for Upton. Even though we like the values of Jimenez and Morgan, too, you can’t pass up on Upton.

Just because we got caught up in the moment (isn’t fantasy baseball awesome?!), here’s what we think of the rest of the players you mentioned.

Ubaldo Jimenez – He finished 2009 as the 17th best SP. His ERA has consistently fallen over the last three seasons, his K/9 has consistently risen, and he finally got his walks under control. He also pitched better in the second half last season (3.08 ERA), showing his strength and durability. Colorado is a good team in a division without a clear-cut favorite, so Jimenez should also have a good share of win opportunities. If he goes for around $13, or even a little more, get him.

Nyjer Morgan – While he won’t give you anything in power categories (HR and RBI), he is a huge threat on the base paths. He finished tied for 4th in MLB in stolen bases (42) despite only playing in 120 games. Also, Washington has committed to making him their everyday lead-off man. With Morgan’s on-base proficiency (.370 OBP in the minors, career .362 OBP in the Majors) and with guys like Dunn and Zimmerman behind him, there’s little reason to think he shouldn’t should approach 100 runs. At $6 he is a great value, and we’d even be willing to go a couple dollars over that.

Josh Johnson – He’s an attractive keeper given how talented he is and how well he did last season, but $21 is a bit steep for a player who just got a major contract and who threw a ton of innings last season. Johnson’s 209 IP was a huge increase over the 87.1 IP he threw in 2008 and the most he’s ever thrown by over 50 innings. As a rough comparison, look at how Cole Hamels did last season after throwing nearly 60 more innings than 2007. Save your money and let other people overbid on Johnson.

Joe Blanton – He has his price, but around $8 you can find pitchers with a lot more upside. I don’t know what Brett Anderson is going for, but I’d rather have him than Blanton.

For reference, this site may be of use to all you auction-leaguers out there if you haven’t found it already. http://www.tgfantasybaseball.com/baseball/dollar_parms.cfm

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ESPN’s 2010 Preview, Part 3

By on January 11, 2010 | Comments { 7 }

By: Bryan Curley (Email)

In Part 1 and Part 2 of my analysis of ESPN’s 2010 preview, we looked at some open-ended questions like “Who will win the AL Cy Young?” and “Who is the second-best catcher?” Today, we change up the pace and go with some either-or questions where we pick which player we’d rather have from a set of two. Let’s see what the experts think.

Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez

Matthew Berry: Hanley Ramirez
Eric Karabell: Hanley Ramirez
Christopher Harris: Hanley Ramirez
Jason Grey: Hanley Ramirez
Pierre Becquey: Hanley Ramirez, and it’s not even close
A.J. Mass: Han-Ram
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Hanley Ramirez, he’s eight years younger and it’s as simple as that

My Take: I couldn’t agree more with the experts, especially Becquey and Cockcroft. As I’ve said a few times in other articles (as have other writers on Baseball Professor), I take Ramirez first overall. That should make my thoughts on him clear.

Tim Lincecum or Zack Greinke

Matthew Berry: Tim Lincecum
Eric Karabell: Tim Lincecum
Christopher Harris: Tim Lincecum
Jason Grey: Tim Lincecum
Pierre Becquey: Zack Greinke, because I’m not spending a first round pick on Lincecum.
A.J. Mass: Tim Lincecum
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Tim Lincecum

My Take: Lincecum is the clear choice for best overall SP. He’s won back-to-back Cy Young awards and is the safest bet for Ks in the entire league. Greinke has probably peaked and plays in the AL for a bad team. Becquey is right, though. If you want Timmy, you better be prepared to use your first round pick.

Roy Halladay or Chris Carpenter

Matthew Berry: Roy Halladay
Eric Karabell: Roy Halladay
Christopher Harris: Roy Halladay
Jason Grey: Roy Halladay
Pierre Becquey: Chris Carpenter will go later yet can match the numbers
A.J. Mass: Chris Carpenter
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Roy Halladay. They might be dead even on a per-start basis, but I’ll take Halladay’s 33 to Carpenter’s probable 20-25.

My Take: Cockcroft nailed this one. Carpenter has proven time and time again that, when healthy, he is a Cy Young candidate, but do you really want to spend an early-round pick on an unreliable pitcher? Halladay is as reliable as they come, and leaving the AL East for the NL can only help.

Ryan Braun or Matt Kemp

Matthew Berry: Matt Kemp
Eric Karabell: Ryan Braun
Christopher Harris: Ryan Braun
Jason Grey: Matt Kemp
Pierre Becquey: Matt Kemp, simply on a gut call that this will be his career season, whereas Braun just had his.
A.J. Mass: Matt Kemp
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Ryan Braun

My Take: I’m actually surprising myself a little here and going with Matt Kemp. Both guys are fantastic and are pretty clearly the top two OF heading into this season, and they both are capable of scoring in all five categories, but Kemp has more speed. I think 2010 is the year he finally becomes a 30/30 guy, and a few years back he predicted that he would one day be a 40/40 guy. I love that confidence. Even if Braun does out-homer Kemp by 10+ (maybe 37 to 27 for example), Kemp should steal 15+ more bases (35 to 20). Braun has already shown he can hit well-over .300 in a full season whereas Kemp has only been a .290-.300 hitter, and Braun has scored more runs, but I still cannot ignore the 30/30+ potential. If you pick Braun though, you’re not wrong.

Yovani Gallardo or Josh Johnson

Matthew Berry: Yovani Gallardo
Eric Karabell: Yovani Gallardo
Christopher Harris: Josh Johnson
Jason Grey: Josh Johnson
Pierre Becquey: Yovani Gallardo
A.J. Mass: Josh Johnson
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Yovani Gallardo

My Take: Their win potentials are probably about the same (Florida vs. Milwaukee), Gallardo Ks a few more batters, and Johnson allows a bit fewer BB. I do think they will both be immensely successful in 2010, but Johnson has already shown he can put it all together, so he’s my choice.

Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard

Matthew Berry: Ryan Howard
Eric Karabell: Prince Fielder
Christopher Harris: Ryan Howard
Jason Grey: Prince Fielder
Pierre Becquey: Prince Fielder
A.J. Mass: Prince Fielder
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Prince Fielder

My Take: Fielder will hit for a better average, Howard is a guaranteed 45-140. Fielder has hit 40+ twice in the last three seasons, but last year was the first time he drove in over 120 RBI (141). Neither guy will steal many bases, regardless of the eight that Howard somehow swiped in ’09, so this pick comes down to two factors: RBI and second-half performance. If Fielder drives in 135+ runs, then his season numbers should be better than Howard’s, but don’t bank on him beating Howard in the second half. Over their careers, these are the lines they have averaged (per 550 AB) after the All-Star Break:

Fielder – 88/.283/39/105/3
Howard – 104/.302/49/138/2

Because I would rather have the better player down the stretch and into the playoffs, I’m going with Howard on this one. If you’re in a keeper league though, Fielder is five years younger.

Adam Lind or Josh Hamilton

Matthew Berry: Josh Hamilton
Eric Karabell: Adam Lind
Christopher Harris: Josh Hamilton
Jason Grey: Adam Lind
Pierre Becquey: Adam Lind is so much safer
A.J. Mass: Adam Lind
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Josh Hamilton. I’m a sucker, remember?

My Take: Hamilton spent his entire 2009 recovering from separate injuries to his abdomen after running into the OF wall (twice). Call it a “gut” feeling (get it? He hurt his abdomen… I know, it was a terrible joke) but I’m going with Hamilton based solely on potential. Also, I’m still not entirely sure Adam Lind can repeat what he did last season, even though he was a top prospect and the numbers seem to support it. Based on Lind’s 20.2% LD rate, his .323 BABIP indicates his success was indeed legitimate. His HR/FB rate rose from a previous career-best (in 2007) of 13.3% to 19.8%, which is a large jump but not unimaginable given that 2009 was the first time he played more than 89 games. Like Becquey said, Lind is so much safer, but I’m a sucker, too.

Aaron Hill or Ben Zobrist

Matthew Berry: Aaron Hill
Eric Karabell: Ben Zobrist
Christopher Harris: Aaron Hill
Jason Grey: Ben Zobrist
Pierre Becquey: Aaron Hill
A.J. Mass: Aaron Hill
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Aaron Hill

My Take: Hill had his 2008 season interrupted by injuries, but bounced back in a big way in 2009. Zobrist finally got his chance to play full-time, and his numbers grew in accordance with his change in playing time. Zobrist has a track record that warrants this kind of power output, posting very similar FB% and HR/FB% in both ’08 and ’09. On the other hand, Hill had his HR/RBI explosion come out of nowhere. Zobrist was also a career .318 hitter in the minors, and improved his average to .297 last season. Hill was a .295 hitter in the minors and batted one point above career average last season. I’ll take Zobrist because he has more steady numbers and a better overall track record than Hill.

Evan Longoria or Mark Teixeira

Matthew Berry: Evan Longoria
Eric Karabell: Evan Longoria
Christopher Harris: Mark Teixeira
Jason Grey: Mark Teixeira
Pierre Becquey: Evan Longoria. MVP.
A.J. Mass: Mark Teixiera. He just doesn’t get MVP because there are too many Yankees to choose from.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Mark Teixeira

My Take: If you’re in a keeper league, this one is a no doubter: Evan Longoria. If you aren’t, then this gets a little more difficult. They both scored 100+ last season, but Teixeira had a higher AVG and more HR and RBI. Playing in Yankee Stadium gives a serious boost to Teixiera since he will get most of his AB as a lefty, and the right-field porch is famously easy to put one over. Longoria is only 24 though, and more growth is expected. Because of his immense potential, but moreso because of the great depth at 1B and lack thereof at 3B, I’m taking Longoria.

Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Broxton

Matthew Berry: Mariano Rivera
Eric Karabell: Mariano Rivera
Christopher Harris: Mariano Rivera
Jason Grey: Jonathan Broxton
Pierre Becquey:  Jonathan Broxton. Someday, Rivera is going to wake up and realize he’s old. I don’t want him on my roster when that happens.
A.J. Mass: Jonathan Broxton
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Mariano Rivera

My Take: I’ll take this opportunity to say that you shouldn’t have either player because there is no reason to draft a closer in the early rounds, but of the two I go with Rivera. The only edges that Broxton has on Rivera are K and age. Last season, Rivera had eight more saves (44 to 36), a better ERA (1.76 to 2.61), and a better WHIP (0.91 to 0.96). Plus, he’s had an ERA under 2.00 in six of the last seven seasons. That’s right, under 2.00. If you are in a league that has K/9 as a category (as I am), then Broxton has added value, but in your standard 5×5 league, Rivera is the choice.

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