Best case scenario: Felix Hernandez (SEA) but fewer IP
Similar players: Adam Wainwright (STL), Madison Bumgarner (SF), Matt Cain (SF)
Worst case scenario: Numbers similar to 2009 but with 160 or fewer IP

Strengths

ERA, WHIP. Johnson’s 48-23 in his career, a testament to his dominance. While he wasn’t exactly racking up the wins, he definitely wasn’t losing many games. That shows just how good of a pitcher he is, and his 2.30 ERA in 2010 and amazing numbers in a short 2011 further demonstrate this point. A .239 BABIP at the time of his injury last season shows his .183 OBA is probably a fluke, but something in the .220s is probably likely. Given his walk rate, a WHIP in the 1.10-1.15 range is probable as is an ERA in the mid-to-high 2.00s.

Weaknesses

Injuries. Johnson had Tommy John surgery in 2007 and was shut down early last year with shoulder soreness. He opted for rehab over surgery on his shoulder, but there are absolutely no guarantees about his ability to stay healthy.

ADP Report (97.1)

If Johnson pitches like the Cy Young caliber starter he’s capable of being, this ADP would be a steal. The problem is that’s far from a guarantee. Back on Christmas, Johnson was going 140th overall in mock drafts, so the rapid rise is astounding. I don’t think his ADP will creep much higher than this, and as long as you have one (but preferably two) very reliable options ahead of Johnson, this is a safe place to take a calculated gamble.

Players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Check back tomorrow for players 41 through 60 as we count down the top 100.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

• Keepers 1-20
• Keepers 21-40
• Keepers 41-60
• Keepers 81-100

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

Rank	Player	Age	Position	Professor's Note
61	Elvis Andrus	23	SS	Elite R/SB and still young enough to improve, but zero power
62	Hunter Pence	29	OF	Great production in Philly and contributes everywhere
63	Ryan Howard	32	1B	Age is a serious concern but still a 40 HR, 120 RBI threat
64	Mike Napoli	30	C/1B	25 HR in 322 AB with Texas right now from a C
65	Josh Johnson	28	SP	Top 5 SP stuff but a perennial injury risk
66	Jason Heyward	22	OF	2011 was a lost season but tons of potential here
67	Drew Stubbs	27	OF	Potential for 60+ HR/SB combined and tons of runs but low BA
68	Craig Kimbrel	23	CL	40+ saves and as many K as Leake and Happ in half the innings
69	Brian McCann	28	C	Consistently 20+ HR and a .280-ish BA with good R/RBI for a C
70	Michael Bourn	29	OF	Game's best SB artist with a near-.300 BA and 90 or so R
71	Alex Gordon	28	OF	Breakout season ranks top 25; losing 3B eligibility hurts
72	Chris Young	28	OF	Career .239 hitter but a perennial 20/20 threat
73	Adam Jones	26	OF	Doesn't run much but solid AVG/HR/RBI production and some youth
74	Aramis Ramirez	33	3B	Back-to-back solid power seasons, but got his BA back up
75	Kevin Youkilis	33	1B/3B	Age/injuries taking their toll but a .290/25 HR player most years
76	Starlin Castro	22	SS	We'll see how much power he develops but a nice SS right now
77	James Shields	30	SP	Not as good as 2011 indicates but solid SP year in, year out
78	Colby Rasmus	25	OF	Despite struggles in TOR I'm still convinced it's a good fit
79	Shane Victorino	31	OF	I don't see a weakness aside from missing time due to injury
80	Dustin Ackley	24	2B/OF	Safeco/Seattle offense limit him some but he has a great swing

The Top 20

1. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels — (vs. OAK, @TB)

So 2010 seems like it was the real deal. Weaver get’s an easy matchup with basball’s fifth worst offense in terms of OPS (.647) and then gets to face a Rays lineup that has struck out the ninth most times (150).

2. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies — (@ARI, vs. NYM)

3. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants — (@PIT, @WAS)

Cain makes a huge leap into the top five because of weak competition. The Pirates (.663 OPS, 169 K) and Nationals (.638 OPS) have little to brag about offensively and Cain could have a big strikeout week.

4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners — (@DET, @BOS)

5. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels — (vs. OAK)

6. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco — (@PIT)

7. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies — (vs. NYM)

8. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers — (vs. SEA)

9. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers — (@FLA)

10. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves — (@SD)

11. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies — (vs. PIT)

Ubaldo took all of one inning to shake off the rust when he came off the DL last week. Now, he is ready to go and is facing a struggling Pirates offense. I can feel a seven-inning, 10-strikeout performance coming.

12. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox — (@BAL)

13. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis — (@HOU, @ATL)

Garcia is off to another great start and should continue with a favorable one against the sorry Astros offense. One reason for caution is that he struggled through his last two starts and pitches better at home than on the road. Still, with two starts, Garcia is a top 15 pitcher for this week.

14. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays — (vs. LAA)

15. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins — (@CIN)

Johnson has been nearly unhittable this season (.112 BA), but his competition has been fairly easy. Three of his four starts have been at home and against the Mets, Nationals and Pirates. The Reds will be his first true test of the season so I have some reservations putting Johnson in the top 10. Obviously you are still starting him and expecting a good outing nonetheless.

16. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees — (vs. CHW)

17. Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers — (vs. SD)

Kuroda has already faced the Padres this year and was just one out away from a shut out. He struck out four batters and allowed six hits and two walks. You can expect much of the same this time around as the Padres offense is one of the worst in the league.

18. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals — (@ATL)

19. Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers — (@HOU)

20. Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics — (@LAA, vs. TEX)

Gonzalez is pitching as advertised; great stuff, but struggles with control. He currently has a 23:13 K:BB ratio, which is good for him. This week he gets two starts and even though one is against the tough Rangers offense, he has a 2.09 ERA in six starts against them in his career.

Pitchers I Like

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals — (@HOU) — We touted Lohse first as an NL-only pickup, but now he should be owned in mixed leagues as well. He gets to face a below average offense in Houston and should continuethis hot start.

Bruce Chen, Kansas City Royals — (vs. MIN) — The Twins struggle mightily against lefties (.564 OPS). Bruce Chen is a lefty. Chen has also been quietly very effective this season with three straight quality starts and he should extend that to four after this week.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves — (@SD, vs. STL)  — Lowe was on a tear before his start against the Dodgers in which he lasted only three innings while giving up five runs. I think he gets back on track with an easy matchup against the Padres and then you hope he’s at least serviceable against the Cardinals.

Pitchers I Don’t Like

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves — (vs. STL) — Albert Pujols (.462 BA), Matt Holliday (.375), Lance Berkman (.500) and Colby Rasmus (.556). Those are their career batting averages against Hudson, which tells me that you should probably sit him this week.

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians — (vs. KC, vs. DET) — I have a feeling that Masterson’s run is over and he will be back to waiver wire duties soon enough. Lefties are starting to get to him a little more now, which is what his problem has been his entire career. He’s been very good so far, but once his control goes he is due for some ugly outings.

Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks — (vs. PHI, vs. CHC) — Hudson’s biggest problem this year is his control (4.44 BB/9). Given that his walk rate throughout his whole career hovered around 2.7, I have to think that this is a fluke. Other than the walks, Hudson is striking out a ton of batters (9.64 K/9) and FIP (3.55), xFIP (3.68) and tERA (4.24) are all well below his actual ERA of 5.92. This could be the week he turns it around as the Phillies and Cubs are both in the bottom 10 in walks, but until Hudson shows the problem is behind him I would advise to sit. Just keep believing.

Guillen came into the season with Matt Thornton as his guy. Then he blew it. Chris Sale has had his chances, including last night—but he blew it by letting up three hits without recording an out. And then Thornton came in to try and win the game—but he blew it.

As a team the White Sox have converted one save out of seven chances and now no one knows what the future holds for this bullpen. I bet you Guillen would even welcome Bobby Jenks back with open arms at this point.

Chris recapped this situation yesterday and while Sale still has a good chance at a majority of the following save opportunities, don’t be surprised if Sergio Santos gets the next chance. If he succeeds, Guillen might just let him run with it for a while.

It woudn’t surprise me if any of these pitchers ended the year with 20 saves so the best advice would be to  just practice patience and keep a close eye on the situation.

Three Up

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL - 3-for-4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI

Roy Halladay, SP, PHI – CG, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Josh Johnson, SP, FLA – 7 1/3 IP, H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K

Three Down

Ian Kennedy, SP, ARI – 3 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, K

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN - 5 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, BB, 4 K

Chris Tillman, SP, BAL - 1 2/3 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, BB, 2 K

Notes:

Jason Vargas rebounded nicely from a rough start agaisnt the Royals to pitch 6 2/3 strong innings, giving up just five hits and one walk while striking out seven against a tough Blue Jays offense. I remain confident that Vargas can be a very good spot start when he pitches within the “safe” confines of Safeco Field.

If you need some speed it seems like Colorado is giving Jonathan Herrera a chance to play second base regularly. Herrera has started three of the last four games and has at least one steal—four total—in each of his starts. As long as Ian Stewart keeps struggling, Herrera will get his chances and could be a nice pickup.

I’m still not worried about Wandy Rodriguez or Francisco Liriano despite them struggling for another start. Remember, last year, Wandy struggled through the first half of the season, but those who believed were rewarded with one of the best pitchers in the second half. As for Liriano, he is still inducing ground balls at a 52-percent rate, which is a good sign. He isn’t helping himself with his high walk totals, but I’m willing to chalk that up to early season woes that should fix themselves soon.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Brandon Phillips left last night’s game with a groin injury. … Grady Sizemore is expected to begin his rehab assignment today. …  Ubaldo Jimenez should make his first start after his thumb injury on Monday against the Giants. … Andres Torres is doubtful for tomorrow’s game.

Luckily I’m here for you. Like a shoulder to cry on.

(Editor’s Note: This article will focus on the upcoming week’s top starting pitchers and will be posted on Saturdays starting next week. Sorry for not getting this out sooner, a.k.a. before today’s first slate of games. Here’s to hoping you are in a daily transactions league!)

The Top 20

1. Clayton Kershaw – (SF, @COL, @SD)

With three starts, two against sub-par offenses, Kershaw gets the nod here at number one.  A nice start to what could be a very special season.

2. Roy Halladay – (HOU, NYM)

3. Chris Carpenter – (SD, PIT)

4. Josh Johnson – (NYM, WAS)

He’s healthy now and has two favorable matchups—both at home. Until he tweaks something, he will be a top-10 pitcher.

5. Tim Lincecum - (@LAD, @SD)

6. CC Sabathia - (DET, MIN, @BOS)

He’s only this high because of his three-start week. I’m not a fan of his matchups (especially at Boston), but with three starts you can count on Sabathia to get you 15 strikeouts and maybe two wins.

7. Felix Hernandez – (@OAK, @TEX)

King Felix absolutely owns the Athletics (who doesn’t?), but struggles against the Rangers. I see an eight-inning gem followed by a less-than-stellar performance.

8. Ubaldo Jimenez – (ARI, @PIT)

9. Cliff Lee – (HOU, @ATL)

10. Yovani Gallardo – (@CIN, ATL, CHC)

He might get you 20-plus strikeouts but those are three pretty good offenses he’s going up against. The strikeouts put him in the top-10.

11. Jered Weaver – (@KC, TB)

12. Tommy Hanson – (@WAS, @MIL)

13. Justin Verlander – (@NYY, @BAL)

14. Jon Lester – (@TEX, @CLE)

Lester’s struggles in April are well-documented, which is why he falls to 13 this week. Once he gets rolling, he is an automatic top-five option, especially on a two-start week.

15. Matt Cain - (@LAD, STL)

16. David Price – (BAL, @CHW)

17. Cole Hamels – (NYM, @ATL)

18. Ted Lilly – (SF, @SD)

19. Hiroki Kuroda – (SF, @SD)

This note is for both Lilly and Kuroda. The reason why I love them is because of weeks where they will face the the two teams “sans” (Diego and Francisco) offense. See what I did there?

20. Roy Oswalt – (HOU, @ATL)

Some Pitchers I Like

Dan Haren (@KC, TB) - I’m putting the chances of Haren throwing a perfect game against Tampa Bay at 20 percent. After last year how can you not?

Jaime Garcia (SD, @SF) - These first two starts should tell a lot about how Garcia’s season is going to go this year. If he struggles I’d be worried.

Anibal Sanchez (WAS, @HOU) - There are some big expectations for Sanchez going into 2011. He’s coming off his first injury-free season, but will he regress? Facing two sub-par offenses to start doesn’t hurt.

Gio Gonzalez (SEA, @MIN) - Gonzalez is the most-hyped A’s pitcher going into the season and just getting to face Seattle at home is enough to warrant a start for me.

Jake Westbrook (SD, @SF) - It seems like I’m picking on the National League West, but there’s good reason. Between the Giants and Padres there isn’t much to fear after Buster Posey.

Some Pitchers I Don’t Like

Colby Lewis (BOS, @BAL) - We all know how good Boston’s offense is, but Baltimore’s is loaded as well.

Clay Buchholz (@TEX, NYY) - Facing Texas on the road isn’t the best way to start the season and lucky Buchholz get’s the monstrous Yankees lineup to follow. If you can avoid starting Buchholz you should.

Phil Hughes (DET, @BOS) – We don’t know how Hughes is going to respond to the massive innings spike in 2010, but something tells me it’s not going to be a pretty start in his first week.

John Lackey (@TEX, NYY) – I do like Lackey to bounce back this year, but owners should probably wait until week two before starting him with any confidence

Brett Myers (@PHI, @CIN) - Two tough offenses in hitter-friendly ballparks? I think I’ll pass especially if your league counts losses.

What you’ll find is a lot of links, some analysis and a confidence level rating at the end of it all. And why not base the confidence meter on the world’s most confident man—Charlie Sheen. We’re here to have fun, right?

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

Gonzalez recently said that he wants to play all 162 games this year, which sounds to me that he is feeling pretty good. He still doesn’t have full range of his shoulder when he is on the field, but he looks good at the plate and should be ready to go when the season starts.

Confidence level: Bi-winning. Because if you draft him you won’t just win once, you’ll win twice. I think I just coined AGon’s fantasy slogan. This right here is why you go to college kids.

Kendrys Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

Morales still has been offically ruled out for opening day as he is still recovering from a broken leg. The slugger hasn’t begun any running drills yet and if he does play in the season opener it will be as a designated hitter. The fact that he hasn’t been able to run yet is very worrisome and it could be something he deals with for the first half of the season. I’m bumping him down a bit on my draft board and would rather have Justin Morneau or Paul Konerko at this point.

Confidence Level: Jon Cryer. He may make some money later on with another gig, but having the rug pulled out from under him by Charlie Sheen like this has got to hurt. Life for Cryer may never get better than his days of getting paid to play Sheen’s nagging, metrosexual brother in a show that went past the prime once Angus T. Jones hit puberty.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

If there is any positive news on Utley’s future I haven’t been able to find it. He has patellar tendinitis and bone swelling—two things you probably want to avoid in life— and is almost a guarantee to miss the beginning of the season. However, it shouldn’t be April that Utley owners worry about, but the entire 2011 season. The Phillies just signed Luis Castillo for insurance, which has to tell you that the team is worried about Utley’s future. I am not touching Utley in drafts unless his price is significantly lowered to around $4-$5 or the last couple of rounds in snake drafts.

Confidence Level: Troll. I can only imagine that Utley, who has no cartilage in his knee, would love to be one of those plastic trolls right about now. You know, because they either don’t have knees or can’t bend them…

Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins

Johnson struggled in his first spring outing and pitched very well in his second, using a new sinker pitch to induce more ground balls. However, Johnson has quite an injury history with Tommy John and shoulder surgery both in the last three years. He supposedly lost some weight and added strength over the offseason, but the chance he makes it through a full season healthy isn’t great, which is why he is on the tail end of my top-10 rather than the beginning.

Confidence Level: Vatican Assassin Warlock. Because it sounds like the coolest thing in the world, but no one knows what it actually means so is it really cool? Just like drafting Josh Johnson looks like a great decision based on the numbers, but you probably won’t get a full season out of him.

The Marlins will undoubtedly provide some fantasy treasure but beware of the players who turn out to be fool’s gold. To help determine which players to draft and which to avoid, here is a preview of the 2011 Florida Marlins.

Guys I Like

Hanley Ramirez, SS – You already know that Ramirez is worthy of an early first round pick but is he worthy of the number one overall pick? I say yes and here’s why. Say you take Albert Pujols with the first pick and then nab Elvis Andrus later on to be your shortstop (ADP 80.2). But then you realize you could have taken Kendry Morales (ADP 75.7) instead of Andrus if you had taken Ramirez over Pujols earlier. Now tell me with a straight face that you would rather have Pujols/Andrus than Ramirez/Morales. I know I most certainly take the latter.

Josh Johnson, SP – Johnson might have the best pure stuff in the National League but his durability will always be in question. It’s tough to project 200 innings from him but when he does pitch you can expect a sub-three ERA, a low WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Johnson as my number one starter but if he’s your number two, consider yourself lucky.

Mike Stanton, OF – Stanton’s power is jaw-dropping. At 20 years old he hit 22 home runs in a mere 359 at-bats. His slugging percentage was .507 and his ISO was .248. The only troubling sign for Stanton is his propensity to strikeout which does not bode well for his batting average. The good news is that his walk rate was a healthy 8.6 percent last year and he has a reputation of being a fast learner. It’s entirely possible that Stanton hits 35 home runs this year and approaches 100 RBI.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B – Last year, Sanchez batted .273 with 19 home runs and 85 RBI. Not bad for a first baseman, but even better considering he was a rookie. He showed exceptional command of the strike zone for a young player with a walk rate of 8.9 percent and a strikeout rate of 17.7 percent. Sanchez has the ability to develop more power as some of the 37 doubles he hit last year could translate into a few more home runs.

Ricky Nolasco, SP – Count me as part of Nolasco’s dwindling fan club. Despite two straight disappointing seasons his xFIP was 3.28 in 2009 and 3.55 in 2010. Nolasco is also developing pin-point control, lowering his walks per nine innings from 2.14 to 1.88. If he can harness some of that control and turn it into command, then he’s sure to cut down on the home runs that have been plaguing him. Add in over eight strikeouts per nine innings and Nolasco is someone I’m hoping to get on the cheap.

Guys I Don’t Like

Javier Vazquez, SP – Be careful not to blindly draft Vazquez thinking that the move to the National League will bring instant success. If Vazquez can’t find the velocity on his fastball (88.7 MPH last year vs. 91.1 MPH the year before) then he’s not likely to be any more effective than he was with the Yankees.

Chris Coghlan, OF – If only he were still a second baseman. Some will remember Coghlan’s 2009 rookie of the year campaign and draft him with confidence but really, he’s not that valuable as an outfielder. He hasn’t hit double digit home runs or stolen more than 10 bases in either of his first two years and his batting average plummeted all the way down to .268 last year. The only way Coghlan provides a lot of value is if he can bat north of .320 but he’ll be lucky to top .300.

John Buck, C – The power is real. Even though Buck hit 20 home runs, the most of his career, neither his home run to fly ball ratio of 14.7% percent or ISO of .208 were career highs. The reason I don’t like Buck this year is because there is no way he’s going to duplicate a .281 batting average. His abnormally high batting average was propelled by a .335 BABIP – too high for someone with a line drive percentage of only 16.1 percent. Since Buck’s isn’t exactly fleet of foot, I think it’s safe to say that his batting average was mostly a product of luck.

Sleeper

Logan Morrison, OF – George Fitopoulos already hyped him up so I won’t go into detail here but suffice to say, we both believe his plate discipline will lead to early success, making Morrison a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

(Actually, the team of three here at Baseball Professor completed a mock draft with Fox Sports about a month ago, but we’re not supposed to talk about it until the magazine is published. Shhhhh!)

The following is my running commentary as the draft unfolded. It’s a 12-team snake draft with MI and CI spots as well as five outfielders. All-in-all, 25 rounds and I have the sixth overall pick. Let’s see what happens.

Round 1, Pick 6 – Troy Tulowitzki

Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun were already off the board (in that order), so I decided to go with Tulowitzki. The guy has massive power at a power-scarce position and is only entering his prime years. After him and Ramirez there’s not another shortstop that I feel comfortable with, and now I don’t have to sit back and pray Alexei Ramirez, Stephen Drew or Ian Desmond pan out for me.

Round 2, Pick 19 – David Wright

Sheer joy. How the heck did Wright fall to 19th overall? Hey, I have no clue, but I think he just might be the best third baseman in the game even though my Baseball Professor brethren like Longoria. Either way, Wright is a major steal here.

Round 3, Pick 30 – Joe Mauer

I let the clock dwindle down to six seconds before making this pick because I did not want to take Mauer. In the end it was between him, Jon Lester and Justin Upton, but I really didn’t want to take a starting pitcher this early. I may regret not jumping on Upton, especially in a five outfielder league, but we’ll see. I do like having the three scarecest positions covered already, though.

Round 4, Pick 43 – Ian Kinsler

Again, I passed on a pitcher (Zack Greinke this time) and an outfielder (Jayson Werth, et. al.) to shore up my middle infield. The fact that I actually need a MI really pushed me in this direction, and Kinsler is as talented as any player at the position when he’s healthy. I’m planning on sitting back and waiting on Danny Espinosa for my MI spot.

Round 5, Pick 54 – Hunter Pence

No choice here. Had to get an outfielder. Pence was the best of the bunch remaining since I didn’t want someone with any real weaknesses. I considered Jacoby Ellsbury for about two and a half seconds, but I don’t like his power potential this season and I already have a lot of stolen bases from Tulowitzki, Wright and Kinsler.

Round 6, Pick 67 – Jay Bruce

Still needed to shore up my outfield seeing as I still needed to draft four more starters there. This pick came down to Bruce and Mike Stanton as I really wanted to get someone with some pop. I figured with Mauer’s batting average at catcher I could afford taking a hit in that department, and Bruce is more proven than Stanton.

Round 7, Pick 78 – Josh Johnson

With two middle infielders, a third baseman and two outfielders already drafted, it was time for me to get some pitching. For this pick I was deciding between Johnson and Matt Cain, but I have a long track record of being very skeptical about Cain. For any Giants fans reading this, feel free to yell at me in the comments section. I don’t care anymore. I was worried about Johnson last season because of his recent surgery and all the innings he threw in 2009, but apparently Tommy John surgery makes you indestructible these days. I’m rapidly becoming a big fan of Florida’s bionic man.

Round 8, Pick 91 – Francisco Liriano

Uh oh. First base is starting to look pretty putrid. Billy Butler, Aubrey Huff and Adam LaRoche are the three best players available at first base if you go by ESPN’s rankings, so instead of wasting my pick at that position I decided to get another bionic ace.

Round 9, Pick 102 – Colby Rasmus

My mind went in about 18 different directions while trying to make this pick. On the one hand, I could have gone with Casey McGehee, who I like, but I didn’t have a need at third base even though I do need a CI in this league. Ben Zobrist was available, and I love the dual eligibility, but in the end I decided to go with Rasmus. There’s a lot of potential in this pick. It could also be one of my worst.

Round 10, Pick 115 – Aaron Hill

I abandoned my Espinosa plan at the last minute because I didn’t like any of the other options at this pick. I’m planning on getting Carlos Pena to be my everyday first baseman (something I am wholly less than thrilled about) and that means I need some guys with solid averages. Yes, I’m well aware of how bad Hill was last season, but I also think he’s a very good bet for .280-plus this season.

Round 11, Pick 126 – Brett Anderson

Still need a first baseman! And a couple outfielders! But the last thing I want is to have poor starting pitching depth. I really like Anderson, and this pick came down to him, John Danks or someone like Colby Lewis. Give me Anderson every time.

Round 12, Pick 139 – Nick Markakis

Markakis is nothing spectacular, but the Baltimore offense is much improved and he can still give me a solid average and maybe even close to 100 RBI. I’ll take that out of my fourth outfielder.

Round 13, Pick 150 – Carlos Lee

I have this odd, perpetual hate for Lee. He just seems so old and fat and worthless and I never want him on my team. Actually, maybe it’s not that odd. Still, he has been a .300 hitter for most of his career before really falling flat last year, and even though he batted just .246 he still had 89 RBI. Pena was the other option I considered (and my initial plan at the position), but he’ll definitely hit for a low average. I’d rather the guy who might not.

Round 14, Pick 163 – Ryan Dempster

I only need a CI, a fifth outfielder and a utility guy to fill out my lineup, so it’s time to get the rest of my rotation. ESPN suggested I select Brandon Morrow or Jhoulys Chacin over Dempster, and I’ll admit I considered it, but in the end I want the consistency…especially since I have already put so much pressure on the surgically repaired arms of Johnson and Liriano.

Round 15, Pick 174 – Vladimir Guerrero

I really, really hate selecting DHs for my utility role because it kills my roster flexibility, but in a deep league like this one I think it’s ok. Free agency is going to be so shallow and I’ll be starting so many batters everyday that it’s unlikely I’ll really have a good utility slot rotation like I prefer having. Guerrero can still hit for a .290-plus average and is in the heart of a solid lineup in a hitter’s ballpark. I expect good things again in 2011. I almost selected Josh Beckett, but I feel he’ll be there next round.

Round 16, Pick 187 – Josh Beckett

Ask and you shall receive! I get the hype around guys like Madison Bumgarner and Jeremy Hellickson, and at times I’ve joined in, but I think there’s a lot to be said for proven veterans who stumbled through unusually bad years. I expect a major rebound from Beckett, and I have no qualms with making him my fifth starting pitcher. Side note: need to start thinking about closers.

Round 17, Pick 198 – Brandon Lyon

Detective Craig Kimbrel (Kindergarten Cop joke, anyone?) came off the board just a pick before me, so I went with the ever-dependable Lyon. He doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, but all of my starters are good strikeout pitchers (aside from Anderson, I suppose). All I care about here are the saves.

Round 18, Pick 211 – Kevin Gregg

Gregg, Leo Nunez and David Aardsma are really the last of the proven closers remaining, and that’s using the word “proven” rather loosely. The ChiSox’s Chris Sale is a little ways down the list, and I think he’ll get the closing job in Chicago, so he’s the last closer I’ll be targeting. If I need a fourth closer or Sale doesn’t pan out, I’ll just scour free agency and the waiver wire all season…you know, if this was a real league.

Round 19, Pick 222 – James Loney

I don’t like taking low-upside guys like Loney, but I still needed a CI filler and Loney at least guarantees me a solid .280-plus average and a handful of everything else. I’ll take some risks with high-upside batters with my bench picks. At least right now that’s the plan. In the interest of full disclosure, I passed up on Garrett Jones and Justin Smoak with this pick.

Round 20, Pick 235 – Jose Tabata

I decided my team was set on power and could benefit from another speed-type, and then Tabata’s name popped up. It was between him and Nyjer Morgan, but Morgan will be lucky to get a homer and 30-plus RBI whereas Tabata will easily beat those totals. In the end, the power assurances offset the gap in speed between the two.

Round 21, Pick 246 – Chris Sale

It was getting dangerously close to the point where I might lose Sale, so I pulled the trigger and got the guy I wanted. If he does get the closer’s job, he could parlay his 100 MPH heat into a big season a la Neftali Feliz a year ago. Not a bad pick at 246 in my opinion. There are four picks left and I still need one pitcher and three bench players.

Round 22, Pick 259 – Jorge de la Rosa

I love the high-strikeout upside from a late-round pitcher and I think de la Rosa is a good value here. I passed on guys like A.J. Burnett, Rick Porcello, Scott Baker and Jake Westbrook.

Round 23, Pick 270 – Logan Morrison

Since I’m starting five outfielders, I thought having a sixth might be a good idea (I’m being sarcastic, of course…it’s an absolute necessity). Since I already tabbed Tabata as my speed guy, I don’t need Julio Borbon or anyone else like him, and Jonny Gomes is too replaceable in my book. Of all the guys remaining, Morrison has the highest ceiling.

Round 24, Pick 283 – Danny Espinosa

Even though I selected Hill way back in round 10, I still got the guy I wanted (Espinosa) and a lot later than I expected. Hey, the only thing better than landing the high-upside youngster for your roster is being able to stash him on your bench and not really needing him to succeed. Very happy about this pick.

Round 25, Pick 294 – Matt LaPorta

LaPorta qualifies as a post-hype sleeper, and even though I don’t expect anything from him, he’s a better pick than someone like Lyle Overbay. Plus, his dual eligibility (1B and OF) is very nice in a league with only three bench spots.

Final Roster

• C – Joe Mauer
• 1B – Carlos Lee
• 2B – Ian Kinsler
• 3B – David Wright
• SS – Troy Tulowitzki
• CI – James Loney
• MI – Aaron Hill
• OF – Hunter Pence
• OF – Jay Bruce
• OF – Colby Rasmus
• OF – Nick Markakis
• OF – Jose Tabata
• UT – Vladimir Guerrero
• SP – Josh Johnson
• SP – Francisco Liriano
• SP – Brett Anderson
• SP – Ryan Dempster
• SP – Josh Beckett
• SP – Jorge de la Rosa
• CL – Brandon Lyon
• CL – Kevin Gregg
• CL – Chris Sale
• BN – Logan Morrison
• BN – Danny Espinosa
• BN – Matt LaPorta

What I Liked

I absolutely loved nabbing Tulowitzki and Wright, but I think I could do this draft 20 more times and only see Wright fall to 19 in one or two of them. Still, that set me up well for the rest of the draft.

I was very happy with the pitching staff I assembled, selecting starters in rounds seven, eight, 11, 14, 16 and 22. Bunching starting pitching selections in the middle rounds is a favorite strategy of mine, and with so much starter depth this season you can afford to wait even longer. I didn’t get my first starter until the 78th overall pick and I think my rotation is pretty strong.

My bullpen (Lyon, Gregg, Sale) is far from solid, but I got three guys in a 12-team league that I think will be their teams’ primary closers, and that’s more than some people in a 12-team league can say. Not bad for someone who waited until the 17th round to get their first closer.

From a full-roster perspective, no one on this team is a major drain in the batting average category, which is pretty awesome, and a couple guys (Mauer and Wright in particular) give me potentially great averages at positions where few guys do.

And now it’s 12:17 am on Tuesday, February 15, which means Valentine’s Day is over. Sadly, I like that, too.

What I Wish I Could Redo

While my outfield is solid (Pence, Bruce, Rasmus, Markakis, Tabata), I would like to have someone better than Pence as my number one guy. I am starting to regret taking Mauer with my third pick (and at the time I knew I might) instead of Justin Upton or Shin-Soo Choo. Either guy would have given me a much stronger outfield, and it turns out that Carlos Santana was available as late as the ninth round when I selected Rasmus. That means I could have conceivably had Upton and Santana instead of Mauer and Rasmus. Which pair is better? It’s pretty close, but Upton and Santana could very easily win out in that battle.

(Yes, that’s TWO N’s at the end of his last name. Get it right, guys!)

Even though JZ is coming off a season where he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, the success stories of Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, Chris Carpenter and Tim Hudson make me feel confident that he can return at full strength. It is becoming more common for pitchers to undergo this procedure earlier in their careers if problems start to arise because they can come back stronger once their confidence returns.

In the ESPN mock draft, JZ was drafted in the 21st round (pick 202) by Jason Grey, who I think is the most knowledgeable expert in Bristol, and he also made the top 50 in both Brandon Funston’s (48) and Brad Evans’ (46) SP rankings over at Yahoo!. It’s fair to say they are believers as well.

JZ hasn’t posted the greatest numbers in his stint as a pitcher in the Big Leagues. In 23 career starts, he has a 4.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His real value, though, is in his strikeouts (career 8.79 K/9).

Let me point out the obvious first. JZ’s career numbers are a bit inflated because of his struggles with health and his struggle with his control after his year-long hiatus.

His return in 2010 wasn’t an indication on what type of pitcher he can be because he was limited to five innings most of the time. Those seven starts were more used to get JZ comfortable pitching again and getting confidence back in all of his pitches.

Excuses aside, JZ is someone who possesses the skills to strikeout more than eight batters per nine and given that he is over a year removed from his surgery so you can expect him to flash the potential he showed in 2009. There is value in a pitcher who can strikeout over 150 batters, but don’t expect more than 175 innings because the Nationals will be protective given his health issues.

Like my colleague Bryan Curley pointed out in his Jhoulys Chacin fantasy projection, it’s better to take chances on pitchers with high strikeout upside later in your draft.

The Nationals drafted JZ with the intentions of plugging him into the top of their rotation and without Stephen Strasburg this year, they will lean on him to deliver.

2011 Fantasy Projection

11-9 | 3.52 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | 157 K | 170 IP

Let me clarify something before I continue—I’m not telling you to avoid Young, I’m telling to avoid his high draft day price.

In ESPN’s first expert 10-team mock draft, Young was the 26th outfielder taken. He was drafted in the ninth round before players like Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Gordon Beckham and Pablo Sandoval. I think all four of those players will give you more bang for your buck than an outfielder whose strongest category was the one he had the least control over.

And that’s the main reason I’m avoiding Young in 2011—because he was lucky. Now I don’t mean lucky in the sense that his batting average or home run total aren’t repeatable because I actually expect him to maintain or possibly improve in those categories. I’m talking about circumstantial luck.

And by circumstantial luck, I’m talking about his gaudy RBI total last year. RBIs are a lot like wins are for pitchers; it’s the category that batters have the least control over. Sure, Young deserves some of the credit, but it was merely fortuitous that he had so many RBI opportunities, especially considering that he rarely hit in the three-hole or cleanup spot. And it’s not like he hit a lot of home runs which would allow him to rack up RBIs in bunches.

Part of Young’s luck had to do with Twins slugger Justin Morneau missing half the season due to concussion complications. With Morneau’s likely return to the middle of the lineup, Young will almost assuredly receive fewer RBI opportunities in 2011.

To me, Young is an above average fantasy outfielder but he doesn’t excel in any category. His batting average will flirt with .300 and he’ll hit around 20 home runs, but his run total won’t be impressive. He had 77 runs last year, a number that’s unlikely to increase considering that he doesn’t get on base enough (career .325 OBP) and he doesn’t bat near the top of the order.

Young’s speed has also been a disappointment. He stole only five bases last year and only two the year before. So when Young fails to reach 112 RBI this year, his stat line won’t look overly as impressive and you’ll see that you could have gotten the same production out of players you could have drafted much later.

I don’t know about you but if I’m drafting an outfielder before a top starting pitcher, that outfielder better excel in power, speed or a combination of both and not have to rely on 110-plus RBI to justify his draft position.

Unfortunately, Delmon Young does not qualify as that outfielder.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.297 AVG | 78 R | 22 HR | 85 RBI | 8 SB