Tag Archives | Josh Johnson

Player Profile #107: Josh Johnson | SP | MIA

By on January 29, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

He’s baa-aack! From the beginning of 2010 until he got hurt in 2011, it could be argued Josh Johnson was the NL’s best pitcher. Johnson will be fully recovered from a season-ending shoulder injury by the start of the season, and he should continue to put up ratios (ERA/WHIP) that make non-Johnson owners jealous, but how much will the new-look Marlins improve? Will it be enough to get Johnson over the 15-win hump? In 2010 he was only able to win 11 games, accruing 11 no-decisions thanks in large part to his team’s inability to get him a lead and hold onto it when he left.

Best case scenario: Felix Hernandez (SEA) but fewer IP
Similar players: Adam Wainwright (STL), Madison Bumgarner (SF), Matt Cain (SF)
Worst case scenario: Numbers similar to 2009 but with 160 or fewer IP

Strengths

ERA, WHIP. Johnson’s 48-23 in his career, a testament to his dominance. While he wasn’t exactly racking up the wins, he definitely wasn’t losing many games. That shows just how good of a pitcher he is, and his 2.30 ERA in 2010 and amazing numbers in a short 2011 further demonstrate this point. A .239 BABIP at the time of his injury last season shows his .183 OBA is probably a fluke, but something in the .220s is probably likely. Given his walk rate, a WHIP in the 1.10-1.15 range is probable as is an ERA in the mid-to-high 2.00s.

Weaknesses

Injuries. Johnson had Tommy John surgery in 2007 and was shut down early last year with shoulder soreness. He opted for rehab over surgery on his shoulder, but there are absolutely no guarantees about his ability to stay healthy.

ADP Report (97.1)

If Johnson pitches like the Cy Young caliber starter he’s capable of being, this ADP would be a steal. The problem is that’s far from a guarantee. Back on Christmas, Johnson was going 140th overall in mock drafts, so the rapid rise is astounding. I don’t think his ADP will creep much higher than this, and as long as you have one (but preferably two) very reliable options ahead of Johnson, this is a safe place to take a calculated gamble.

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2012 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Rankings, 61-80

By on September 12, 2011 | Comments { 4 }

Yesterday we unveiled our 2012 fantasy baseball keeper rankings for players 81 through 100, and today we give you players 61 through 80.

Players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Check back tomorrow for players 41 through 60 as we count down the top 100.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

RankPlayerAgePositionProfessor's Note
61Elvis Andrus23SSElite R/SB and still young enough to improve, but zero power
62Hunter Pence29OFGreat production in Philly and contributes everywhere
63Ryan Howard321BAge is a serious concern but still a 40 HR, 120 RBI threat
64Mike Napoli30C/1B25 HR in 322 AB with Texas right now from a C
65Josh Johnson28SPTop 5 SP stuff but a perennial injury risk
66Jason Heyward22OF2011 was a lost season but tons of potential here
67Drew Stubbs27OFPotential for 60+ HR/SB combined and tons of runs but low BA
68Craig Kimbrel23CL40+ saves and as many K as Leake and Happ in half the innings
69Brian McCann28CConsistently 20+ HR and a .280-ish BA with good R/RBI for a C
70Michael Bourn29OFGame's best SB artist with a near-.300 BA and 90 or so R
71Alex Gordon28OFBreakout season ranks top 25; losing 3B eligibility hurts
72Chris Young28OFCareer .239 hitter but a perennial 20/20 threat
73Adam Jones26OFDoesn't run much but solid AVG/HR/RBI production and some youth
74Aramis Ramirez333BBack-to-back solid power seasons, but got his BA back up
75Kevin Youkilis331B/3BAge/injuries taking their toll but a .290/25 HR player most years
76Starlin Castro22SSWe'll see how much power he develops but a nice SS right now
77James Shields30SPNot as good as 2011 indicates but solid SP year in, year out
78Colby Rasmus25OFDespite struggles in TOR I'm still convinced it's a good fit
79Shane Victorino31OFI don't see a weakness aside from missing time due to injury
80Dustin Ackley242B/OFSafeco/Seattle offense limit him some but he has a great swing

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Twice is Nice: Jered Weaver takes top spot for Week 4

By on April 24, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

After a brief hiatus last week, we are back to tell you which pitchers to start in the fourth week of the season. Jered Weaver takes over the number one spot and we see Matt Cain rocket up to a top five spot while Jaime Garcia makes it as a top 15 option. Once again there are a lot of great pitching matchups so stream away!

The Top 20

1. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels — (vs. OAK, @TB)

So 2010 seems like it was the real deal. Weaver get’s an easy matchup with basball’s fifth worst offense in terms of OPS (.647) and then gets to face a Rays lineup that has struck out the ninth most times (150).

2. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies — (@ARI, vs. NYM)

3. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants — (@PIT, @WAS)

Cain makes a huge leap into the top five because of weak competition. The Pirates (.663 OPS, 169 K) and Nationals (.638 OPS) have little to brag about offensively and Cain could have a big strikeout week.

4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners — (@DET, @BOS)

5. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels — (vs. OAK)

6. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco — (@PIT)

7. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies — (vs. NYM)

8. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers — (vs. SEA)

9. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers — (@FLA)

10. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves — (@SD)

11. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies — (vs. PIT)

Ubaldo took all of one inning to shake off the rust when he came off the DL last week. Now, he is ready to go and is facing a struggling Pirates offense. I can feel a seven-inning, 10-strikeout performance coming.

12. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox — (@BAL)

13. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis — (@HOU, @ATL)

Garcia is off to another great start and should continue with a favorable one against the sorry Astros offense. One reason for caution is that he struggled through his last two starts and pitches better at home than on the road. Still, with two starts, Garcia is a top 15 pitcher for this week.

14. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays — (vs. LAA)

15. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins — (@CIN)

Johnson has been nearly unhittable this season (.112 BA), but his competition has been fairly easy. Three of his four starts have been at home and against the Mets, Nationals and Pirates. The Reds will be his first true test of the season so I have some reservations putting Johnson in the top 10. Obviously you are still starting him and expecting a good outing nonetheless.

16. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees — (vs. CHW)

17. Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers — (vs. SD)

Kuroda has already faced the Padres this year and was just one out away from a shut out. He struck out four batters and allowed six hits and two walks. You can expect much of the same this time around as the Padres offense is one of the worst in the league.

18. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals — (@ATL)

19. Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers — (@HOU)

20. Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics — (@LAA, vs. TEX)

Gonzalez is pitching as advertised; great stuff, but struggles with control. He currently has a 23:13 K:BB ratio, which is good for him. This week he gets two starts and even though one is against the tough Rangers offense, he has a 2.09 ERA in six starts against them in his career.

Pitchers I Like

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals — (@HOU) — We touted Lohse first as an NL-only pickup, but now he should be owned in mixed leagues as well. He gets to face a below average offense in Houston and should continuethis hot start.

Bruce Chen, Kansas City Royals — (vs. MIN) — The Twins struggle mightily against lefties (.564 OPS). Bruce Chen is a lefty. Chen has also been quietly very effective this season with three straight quality starts and he should extend that to four after this week.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves — (@SD, vs. STL)  — Lowe was on a tear before his start against the Dodgers in which he lasted only three innings while giving up five runs. I think he gets back on track with an easy matchup against the Padres and then you hope he’s at least serviceable against the Cardinals.

Pitchers I Don’t Like

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves — (vs. STL) — Albert Pujols (.462 BA), Matt Holliday (.375), Lance Berkman (.500) and Colby Rasmus (.556). Those are their career batting averages against Hudson, which tells me that you should probably sit him this week.

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians — (vs. KC, vs. DET) — I have a feeling that Masterson’s run is over and he will be back to waiver wire duties soon enough. Lefties are starting to get to him a little more now, which is what his problem has been his entire career. He’s been very good so far, but once his control goes he is due for some ugly outings.

Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks — (vs. PHI, vs. CHC) — Hudson’s biggest problem this year is his control (4.44 BB/9). Given that his walk rate throughout his whole career hovered around 2.7, I have to think that this is a fluke. Other than the walks, Hudson is striking out a ton of batters (9.64 K/9) and FIP (3.55), xFIP (3.68) and tERA (4.24) are all well below his actual ERA of 5.92. This could be the week he turns it around as the Phillies and Cubs are both in the bottom 10 in walks, but until Hudson shows the problem is behind him I would advise to sit. Just keep believing.

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Wednesday’s Recap: Ozzie ‘Doesn’t have a closer’

By on April 14, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

It’s always interesting with Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, that’s for sure.

Guillen came into the season with Matt Thornton as his guy. Then he blew it. Chris Sale has had his chances, including last night—but he blew it by letting up three hits without recording an out. And then Thornton came in to try and win the game—but he blew it.

As a team the White Sox have converted one save out of seven chances and now no one knows what the future holds for this bullpen. I bet you Guillen would even welcome Bobby Jenks back with open arms at this point.

Chris recapped this situation yesterday and while Sale still has a good chance at a majority of the following save opportunities, don’t be surprised if Sergio Santos gets the next chance. If he succeeds, Guillen might just let him run with it for a while.

It woudn’t surprise me if any of these pitchers ended the year with 20 saves so the best advice would be to  just practice patience and keep a close eye on the situation.

Three Up

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL - 3-for-4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI

Roy Halladay, SP, PHI – CG, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Josh Johnson, SP, FLA – 7 1/3 IP, H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K

Three Down

Ian Kennedy, SP, ARI – 3 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, K

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN - 5 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, BB, 4 K

Chris Tillman, SP, BAL - 1 2/3 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, BB, 2 K

Notes:

Jason Vargas rebounded nicely from a rough start agaisnt the Royals to pitch 6 2/3 strong innings, giving up just five hits and one walk while striking out seven against a tough Blue Jays offense. I remain confident that Vargas can be a very good spot start when he pitches within the “safe” confines of Safeco Field.

If you need some speed it seems like Colorado is giving Jonathan Herrera a chance to play second base regularly. Herrera has started three of the last four games and has at least one steal—four total—in each of his starts. As long as Ian Stewart keeps struggling, Herrera will get his chances and could be a nice pickup.

I’m still not worried about Wandy Rodriguez or Francisco Liriano despite them struggling for another start. Remember, last year, Wandy struggled through the first half of the season, but those who believed were rewarded with one of the best pitchers in the second half. As for Liriano, he is still inducing ground balls at a 52-percent rate, which is a good sign. He isn’t helping himself with his high walk totals, but I’m willing to chalk that up to early season woes that should fix themselves soon.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Brandon Phillips left last night’s game with a groin injury. … Grady Sizemore is expected to begin his rehab assignment today. …  Ubaldo Jimenez should make his first start after his thumb injury on Monday against the Giants. … Andres Torres is doubtful for tomorrow’s game.

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Twice is Nice: Clayton Kershaw is week one’s top pitcher

By on March 31, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Ah, the week of the two-start pitchers. It’s the only time of the year where you will have almost every pitcher take the mound twice for [insert team name here]. Unfortunately there is so much uncertainty at the beginning of every season that it’s easy to make the wrong moves, getting you off to a rough start to the season.

Luckily I’m here for you. Like a shoulder to cry on.

(Editor’s Note: This article will focus on the upcoming week’s top starting pitchers and will be posted on Saturdays starting next week. Sorry for not getting this out sooner, a.k.a. before today’s first slate of games. Here’s to hoping you are in a daily transactions league!)

The Top 20

1. Clayton Kershaw – (SF, @COL, @SD)

With three starts, two against sub-par offenses, Kershaw gets the nod here at number one.  A nice start to what could be a very special season.

2. Roy Halladay – (HOU, NYM)

3. Chris Carpenter – (SD, PIT)

4. Josh Johnson – (NYM, WAS)

He’s healthy now and has two favorable matchups—both at home. Until he tweaks something, he will be a top-10 pitcher.

5. Tim Lincecum - (@LAD, @SD)

6. CC Sabathia - (DET, MIN, @BOS)

He’s only this high because of his three-start week. I’m not a fan of his matchups (especially at Boston), but with three starts you can count on Sabathia to get you 15 strikeouts and maybe two wins.

7. Felix Hernandez – (@OAK, @TEX)

King Felix absolutely owns the Athletics (who doesn’t?), but struggles against the Rangers. I see an eight-inning gem followed by a less-than-stellar performance.

8. Ubaldo Jimenez – (ARI, @PIT)

9. Cliff Lee – (HOU, @ATL)

10. Yovani Gallardo – (@CIN, ATL, CHC)

He might get you 20-plus strikeouts but those are three pretty good offenses he’s going up against. The strikeouts put him in the top-10.

11. Jered Weaver – (@KC, TB)

12. Tommy Hanson – (@WAS, @MIL)

13. Justin Verlander – (@NYY, @BAL)

14. Jon Lester – (@TEX, @CLE)

Lester’s struggles in April are well-documented, which is why he falls to 13 this week. Once he gets rolling, he is an automatic top-five option, especially on a two-start week.

15. Matt Cain - (@LAD, STL)

16. David Price – (BAL, @CHW)

17. Cole Hamels – (NYM, @ATL)

18. Ted Lilly – (SF, @SD)

19. Hiroki Kuroda – (SF, @SD)

This note is for both Lilly and Kuroda. The reason why I love them is because of weeks where they will face the the two teams “sans” (Diego and Francisco) offense. See what I did there?

20. Roy Oswalt – (HOU, @ATL)

Some Pitchers I Like

Dan Haren (@KC, TB) - I’m putting the chances of Haren throwing a perfect game against Tampa Bay at 20 percent. After last year how can you not?

Jaime Garcia (SD, @SF) - These first two starts should tell a lot about how Garcia’s season is going to go this year. If he struggles I’d be worried.

Anibal Sanchez (WAS, @HOU) - There are some big expectations for Sanchez going into 2011. He’s coming off his first injury-free season, but will he regress? Facing two sub-par offenses to start doesn’t hurt.

Gio Gonzalez (SEA, @MIN) - Gonzalez is the most-hyped A’s pitcher going into the season and just getting to face Seattle at home is enough to warrant a start for me.

Jake Westbrook (SD, @SF) - It seems like I’m picking on the National League West, but there’s good reason. Between the Giants and Padres there isn’t much to fear after Buster Posey.

Some Pitchers I Don’t Like

Colby Lewis (BOS, @BAL) - We all know how good Boston’s offense is, but Baltimore’s is loaded as well.

Clay Buchholz (@TEX, NYY) - Facing Texas on the road isn’t the best way to start the season and lucky Buchholz get’s the monstrous Yankees lineup to follow. If you can avoid starting Buchholz you should.

Phil Hughes (DET, @BOS) – We don’t know how Hughes is going to respond to the massive innings spike in 2010, but something tells me it’s not going to be a pretty start in his first week.

John Lackey (@TEX, NYY) – I do like Lackey to bounce back this year, but owners should probably wait until week two before starting him with any confidence

Brett Myers (@PHI, @CIN) - Two tough offenses in hitter-friendly ballparks? I think I’ll pass especially if your league counts losses.

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MLB Injury Updates

By on March 21, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

We are coming into the final stretch run of fantasy baseball drafts and spring training wouldn’t be interesting if it wasn’t for the injury news. Fantasy owners will check everything short of a player’s SSN and Credit Score before deciding to take him on for the next six months. Well, I scoured the interweb for you and gathered the most fantasy-related injury news I could find. I’m not a doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

What you’ll find is a lot of links, some analysis and a confidence level rating at the end of it all. And why not base the confidence meter on the world’s most confident man—Charlie Sheen. We’re here to have fun, right?

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

Gonzalez recently said that he wants to play all 162 games this year, which sounds to me that he is feeling pretty good. He still doesn’t have full range of his shoulder when he is on the field, but he looks good at the plate and should be ready to go when the season starts.

Confidence level: Bi-winning. Because if you draft him you won’t just win once, you’ll win twice. I think I just coined AGon’s fantasy slogan. This right here is why you go to college kids.

Kendrys Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

Morales still has been offically ruled out for opening day as he is still recovering from a broken leg. The slugger hasn’t begun any running drills yet and if he does play in the season opener it will be as a designated hitter. The fact that he hasn’t been able to run yet is very worrisome and it could be something he deals with for the first half of the season. I’m bumping him down a bit on my draft board and would rather have Justin Morneau or Paul Konerko at this point.

Confidence Level: Jon Cryer. He may make some money later on with another gig, but having the rug pulled out from under him by Charlie Sheen like this has got to hurt. Life for Cryer may never get better than his days of getting paid to play Sheen’s nagging, metrosexual brother in a show that went past the prime once Angus T. Jones hit puberty.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

If there is any positive news on Utley’s future I haven’t been able to find it. He has patellar tendinitis and bone swelling—two things you probably want to avoid in life— and is almost a guarantee to miss the beginning of the season. However, it shouldn’t be April that Utley owners worry about, but the entire 2011 season. The Phillies just signed Luis Castillo for insurance, which has to tell you that the team is worried about Utley’s future. I am not touching Utley in drafts unless his price is significantly lowered to around $4-$5 or the last couple of rounds in snake drafts.

Confidence Level: Troll. I can only imagine that Utley, who has no cartilage in his knee, would love to be one of those plastic trolls right about now. You know, because they either don’t have knees or can’t bend them…

Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins

Johnson struggled in his first spring outing and pitched very well in his second, using a new sinker pitch to induce more ground balls. However, Johnson has quite an injury history with Tommy John and shoulder surgery both in the last three years. He supposedly lost some weight and added strength over the offseason, but the chance he makes it through a full season healthy isn’t great, which is why he is on the tail end of my top-10 rather than the beginning.

Confidence Level: Vatican Assassin Warlock. Because it sounds like the coolest thing in the world, but no one knows what it actually means so is it really cool? Just like drafting Josh Johnson looks like a great decision based on the numbers, but you probably won’t get a full season out of him.

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Florida Marlins: 2011 Fantasy Team Preview

By on February 26, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The Florida Marlins are going to be a fun team to watch this year. Combine the league’s best shortstop with some power arms, a starting outfield with the average age of 23 and a first baseman who received first place votes for rookie of the year and you have a team that’s not ready to concede the NL East to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Marlins will undoubtedly provide some fantasy treasure but beware of the players who turn out to be fool’s gold. To help determine which players to draft and which to avoid, here is a preview of the 2011 Florida Marlins.

Guys I Like

Hanley Ramirez, SS – You already know that Ramirez is worthy of an early first round pick but is he worthy of the number one overall pick? I say yes and here’s why. Say you take Albert Pujols with the first pick and then nab Elvis Andrus later on to be your shortstop (ADP 80.2). But then you realize you could have taken Kendry Morales (ADP 75.7) instead of Andrus if you had taken Ramirez over Pujols earlier. Now tell me with a straight face that you would rather have Pujols/Andrus than Ramirez/Morales. I know I most certainly take the latter.

Josh Johnson, SP – Johnson might have the best pure stuff in the National League but his durability will always be in question. It’s tough to project 200 innings from him but when he does pitch you can expect a sub-three ERA, a low WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Johnson as my number one starter but if he’s your number two, consider yourself lucky.

Mike Stanton, OF – Stanton’s power is jaw-dropping. At 20 years old he hit 22 home runs in a mere 359 at-bats. His slugging percentage was .507 and his ISO was .248. The only troubling sign for Stanton is his propensity to strikeout which does not bode well for his batting average. The good news is that his walk rate was a healthy 8.6 percent last year and he has a reputation of being a fast learner. It’s entirely possible that Stanton hits 35 home runs this year and approaches 100 RBI.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B – Last year, Sanchez batted .273 with 19 home runs and 85 RBI. Not bad for a first baseman, but even better considering he was a rookie. He showed exceptional command of the strike zone for a young player with a walk rate of 8.9 percent and a strikeout rate of 17.7 percent. Sanchez has the ability to develop more power as some of the 37 doubles he hit last year could translate into a few more home runs.

Ricky Nolasco, SP – Count me as part of Nolasco’s dwindling fan club. Despite two straight disappointing seasons his xFIP was 3.28 in 2009 and 3.55 in 2010. Nolasco is also developing pin-point control, lowering his walks per nine innings from 2.14 to 1.88. If he can harness some of that control and turn it into command, then he’s sure to cut down on the home runs that have been plaguing him. Add in over eight strikeouts per nine innings and Nolasco is someone I’m hoping to get on the cheap.

Guys I Don’t Like

Javier Vazquez, SP – Be careful not to blindly draft Vazquez thinking that the move to the National League will bring instant success. If Vazquez can’t find the velocity on his fastball (88.7 MPH last year vs. 91.1 MPH the year before) then he’s not likely to be any more effective than he was with the Yankees.

Chris Coghlan, OF – If only he were still a second baseman. Some will remember Coghlan’s 2009 rookie of the year campaign and draft him with confidence but really, he’s not that valuable as an outfielder. He hasn’t hit double digit home runs or stolen more than 10 bases in either of his first two years and his batting average plummeted all the way down to .268 last year. The only way Coghlan provides a lot of value is if he can bat north of .320 but he’ll be lucky to top .300.

John Buck, C – The power is real. Even though Buck hit 20 home runs, the most of his career, neither his home run to fly ball ratio of 14.7% percent or ISO of .208 were career highs. The reason I don’t like Buck this year is because there is no way he’s going to duplicate a .281 batting average. His abnormally high batting average was propelled by a .335 BABIP – too high for someone with a line drive percentage of only 16.1 percent. Since Buck’s isn’t exactly fleet of foot, I think it’s safe to say that his batting average was mostly a product of luck.

Sleeper

Logan Morrison, OF – George Fitopoulos already hyped him up so I won’t go into detail here but suffice to say, we both believe his plate discipline will lead to early success, making Morrison a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

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