Tag Archives | Jon Lester

Examining xFIP

By on March 23, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

Despite finishing with the eighth best xFIP, Ricky Nolasco posted a 5.06 ERA in 2009.

Up until this point, we at Baseball Professor have done a lot of talking about BABIP and its value in determining whether or not a player should maintain a certain level of performance. This is great when analyzing batters, but it’s only part of the picture when looking at pitchers.

Today, we’ll examine xFIP.

Before we dive into the potentially overwhelming world of baseball sabermetrics, let’s see exactly what xFIP is. The following definitions are courtesy of the knowledgeable baseball folk from The Hardball Times:

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) – A measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) - This is an experimental stat that adjusts and “normalizes” the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher’s future ERA.

Just like with a hitter’s batting average, a pitcher’s ERA only provides a snapshot of the player’s season. Generalizations can be made, but just because a pitcher had a lower ERA doesn’t necessarily mean he had a better season.

Take the surprising Jair Jurrjens for example. He’s a popular poster-boy for overachievement, and with good reason. Take a look at how his 2009 season compared to his pedestrian 2008:

IP ERA WHIP Opp BA Opp BABIP K/9 BB/9 FIP xFIP
2008 188.1 3.68 1.37 .260 .311 6.64 3.35 3.59 3.96
2009 215 2.60 1.21 .237 .273 6.36 3.14 3.68 4.34

Despite lowering his ERA by over a run and his WHIP by 16 points, Jurrjens might have actually had a worse season. His walk rate and strikeout rate remained virtually the same, but his opponents’ BABIP, FIP and xFIP all moved away from the norm. This isn’t to say Jurrjens didn’t make any improvements in 2009 because his FB% decreased and his GB/FB ratio was much improved, but clearly his ’09 season will be extremely tough to replicate.

Now, let’s look at last year’s top 10 in xFIP along with their actual ERA:

Player xFIP ERA xFIP Rank ERA Rank
Javier Vazquez 2.82 2.87 1 9
Tim Lincecum 2.87 2.48 2 3
Roy Halladay 2.95 2.79 3 7
Dan Haren 3.08 3.14 4 15
Jon Lester 3.13 3.41 5 20
Zack Greinke 3.15 2.16 6 1
Justin Verlander 3.26 3.45 7 21
Ricky Nolasco 3.28 5.06 8 72
Josh Beckett 3.35 3.86 9 37
Adam Wainwright 3.36 2.63 10 6

Note: Ranks are among all 75 qualifying starting pitchers.

First off, what happened to Ricky Nolasco? His GB/FB ratio was almost the same as his successful 2008, but his opponents’ BABIP was well-above career averages and his left-on-base percentage (LOB%) was just 61.0 percent. To put that into perspective, it was easily last among those 75 qualifying starters. The next worst (Carl Pavano at 74) had a LOB% of 66.1 percent. Yes, that’s a huge gap.

Also notice how Zack Greinke’s ERA was a whole run lower than his xFIP. This isn’t to say that Greinke isn’t a great pitcher – he’s proven that he is among baseball’s elite – but is he really that much better than Jon Lester? Greinke has slightly better control than Lester, but I see more wins from Boston’s southpaw along with comparable strikeouts and ERA.

So, when evaluating which starters you want to draft, make sure to examine their xFIP. Just remember that it is a defense- and ballpark-independent statistic, and pitchers with sub-par defenses behind them or who pitch in Yankee Stadium, Citizens Bank Ballpark, or Chase Field (to name a few) may not be able close the gap between their ERA and xFIP (which may explain Lester’s gap as Boston had an unstable defense last season).

Like with any stat, xFIP can be very useful in the right context. Don’t draft your starters without considering it.

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The Courtroom: Lester v. Lee

By on February 22, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

Cases already heard:

Cabrera v. Fielder
Upton v. McCutchen
Sandoval v. Youkilis

All rise! Court is now in session.

In our fourth case we have the Plaintiff, Mr. Jon Lester, vs. the Defendant, Mr. Cliff Lee. Mr. Lester claims that he is now deserving of being drafted ahead of the former Cy Young winner, which Mr. Lee’s defense will be contending. Arguing on the behalf of Mr. Lester is Bryan Curley and arguing on behalf of Mr. Lee is George Fitopoulos. Let’s get it on!

Opening Statements

Bryan says:

At only 26 years of age and with two dominant seasons already under his belt, Jon Lester is poised to become one of baseball’s preeminent aces. He has been the definition of strength and durability, making 65 starts in the last two seasons and performing better as the season has worn on.

In 2009 he was one of only ten pitchers to strike out 200+ batters and finished with a K/9 of 10.0, fourth best among all qualifying starters. In short, Lester is one of the elite few starters who can combine high strikeout totals with a low WHIP. No offense to Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, or Cole Hamels, but Lester just might be the best left-handed pitcher in baseball, and he’ll once again show why in 2010.

George says:

Normally, I am against the move to the American League when it comes to pitchers; Max Scherzer, Javier Vazquez, and Rich Harden are all players I predict to regress this season. However, Cliff Lee’s move to the Mariners is a great move and I’ll tell you why. Starting in 2008, Lee has been very good at inducing the groundball, and the Mariners have one of the better, if not the best, defensive infields in the Majors. Add in the fact that their outfield ranked first in defense last season, and you can feel comfortable that Lee has a lot of help behind him.

Also, he will be calling Safeco Field home, where home runs go to die (24th in park factors) and runs are hard to come by (21st in park factor). Lee strikes out enough guys to be a force in fantasy baseball (7.03 K/9 last year), and he should allow even fewer home runs (he ranked 13th last year) and post an ERA in the low-3’s, which would make him a clear-cut top-10 starter.

Arguments

Bryan says:

There are two major factors propelling Lester toward fantasy stardom: his development as a pitcher and Boston’s focus on defense.

I hate bringing it up because it is talked about every time Lester starts a big game, but don’t forget that the man is a cancer survivor. After what he went through, it’s amazing that he has ascended as high as he has as quickly as he has. He’s still getting stronger and his pitches are still developing. To show this, let’s take a look at some of his pitch stats.

  • In 2009, his average fastball was 93.6 MPH versus 92.1 MPH in 2008.
  • Lester’s cutter became his most devastating pitch, increasing in velocity to 89.0 MPH and resulting in 13.0 runs above average (a way of judging the quality of a pitch). For comparison, it was only 5.0 runs above average in 2008, and his 2009 value of 13.0 was good for 6th out of 35 starters that featured cutters and threw at least 100 IP.
  • Out of 123 pitchers with 100 IP, Lester was eighth in O-Contact% (51.6) and ninth in overall Contact% (75.6%).

In 2009, Boston committed the sixth fewest errors in baseball, but they ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. While Boston didn’t make many errors, their error rate was one of the highest in the league by virtue of all the strikeouts their pitching staff racked up.
Now add in Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron. Beltre replaces the oft-injured and regressing Mike Lowell, and Cameron allows the Red Sox to move Jacoby Ellsbury to left field, replacing the defensive liability Sox fans came to know as Jason Bay. It’s clear that Jon Lester is rapidly becoming one of the best pitchers in the league, and from a fantasy standpoint he has superseded Cliff Lee by due to his much higher strikeout potential (+44 K in 2009).

George says:

Lester has one distinct advantage over Lee: strikeouts. His K/9 jumped from 6.50 in 2008 to 9.96 in 2009, but the big question is whether or not he can sustain a K/9 around 10 for seasons to come. Starting with his days in the minors, Lester has always struggled with his control and has never posted a BB/9 total lower than 2.82, and his first-strike percentage of 54.8 ranked eighth worst in Majors last season. His company included the likes of Kyle Davies, Trevor Cahill and Tim Wakefield — yes, Lester’s first-strike percentage can be comparable to that of a knuckleballer.

On the other hand, Lee provides you with great control numbers as he has averaged 1.52 BB/9 over the last two seasons and posted a first-strike percentage of 65.4 in 2009, fifth in the Majors. He did all this while striking out a respectable 7.03 batters per nine. Lee should also improve on his 1.24 WHIP, which is high considering his great control numbers. Last season, his BABIP allowed was a career-high .326,  but the Mariners were the best in the majors by allowing a BABIP of just .280.

Closing Statements

Bryan says:

The defense will have you look at Lester’s first-strike percentage as a negative, but I view it as a positive. He was able to post an ERA in the mid-3.00s despite starting off so poorly against most batters and having a BABIP of .314, a 14-point increase from 2008. Lester’s development is evidenced by his decreasing FIP (fielding independent pitching) over the last two seasons from 3.64 in 2008 to 3.15 in 2009.

With nearly identical ADPs in early mock drafts, fantasy managers have had to frequently choose between Lester and Lee. The two southpaws should post similar ERAs, WHIPs, and win totals, but Lee cannot keep pace with Lester’s strikeout potential. Even if Lester cannot keep up the 10.0 K/9 pace he posted last season, he will be well above the totals that Lee will post. With such out-of-character peripherals and luck-related stats last season, it is likely that Lester’s 2010 ERA will resemble his 2009 FIP while still posting elite strikeout totals.

Lester may not have a Cy Young Award to his credit, but if he continues to progress like he has over the last few seasons, that may just be a matter of time.

George says:

I will respectfully disagree with your notion that Lee and Lester will have similar WHIPs in 2010. Lee will have arguably the league’s best defense behind him and a spacious, pitcher-friendly ballpark which means he should have no problem bringing his WHIP back to his 2008 level of 1.11 — something Lester will have a tough time doing thanks to his 2.83 walks per nine innings. Over the last two seasons, Lee has been one of the best pitchers in the Majors as he has posted the sixth best ERA, issued the third fewest walks, and allowed the sixth fewest home runs — all numbers that should be improved with his move to Seattle.

It’s interesting how so many people are reluctant to accept the fact that Lee can hang with the elites, but I assure you that he’s legit because he has dominated for almost 250 innings now and no one just flukes their way through two seasons the way Lee has. What he lacks in strikeouts, he makes up for with great control, and with strikeouts being plentiful these days you might be better served reinforcing your staff’s WHIP rather than focusing on strikeouts early on.

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ESPN’s 2010 Preview, Part 2

By on January 7, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

By: Bryan Curley (Email)

The other day, ESPN released some of their fantasy experts’ predictions for 2010. We recapped a few of these projections in Part 1 of this mini-series, and today we pick it back up with Part 2.

The AL Cy Young

Matthew Berry: Felix Hernandez
Eric Karabell: Jon Lester
Christopher Harris: Jon Lester
Jason Grey: Felix Hernandez
Pierre Becquey: Justin Verlander
A.J. Mass: Felix Hernandez
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Felix Hernandez

My Take: If you remember from my article on Who Will Be the Next Zack Greinke, Jon Lester is one of my favorite candidates. Verlander also cracked the list of pitchers poised for a Cy Young season since both of them had two of the three necessary conditions for breakout status: H/9 below 8.0, BB/9 below 3.0, and K/9 above 6.0. The man who garnered the most expert votes, Felix Hernandez, actually accomplished all three last season. After breaking into the majors at only 18 years of age, Hernandez has finally become the ace everyone expected. While Lester is a great candidate on a very good team, there are lots of other SP on that squad that could steal the show. It’s tough to imagine Greinke will be able to repeat his unbelievable performance, and with Halladay out of the AL, the stiffest competition is gone. Sabathia and Verlander both have a good shot, but I’m going with Hernandez.

The NL Cy Young

Matthew Berry: Tim Lincecum
Eric Karabell: Roy Halladay
Christopher Harris: Tim Lincecum
Jason Grey: Tim Lincecum
Pierre Becquey: Johan Santana
A.J. Mass: Matt Cain
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Tim Lincecum

My Take: Cockcroft also nominated Tommy Hanson as his dark-horse candidate, which means a total of five names were thrown into the pool by seven experts. Lincecum has won two in a row, Halladay won one back in 2003, and Santana has two himself (’04 and ’06) as well as three other top-five finishes. Throw into the mix Matt Cain, who had a career year in 2009, and Hanson, who ignored the usual rookie struggles, and you have a pretty wide open NL Cy Young race. Oh, and don’t forget about Brandon Webb, owner of a sparkling 3.27 career ERA, one Cy Young award (2006), and two second-place finishes. And in case you didn’t notice, his teammate, Dan Haren, is pretty good himself. That list doesn’t even begin to touch upon the handful of potential surprise pitchers (like Yovani Gallardo) who could suddenly put everything together. So how are we supposed to pick a Cy Young winner from a pool this large? It’s tough, but I’m going with Roy Halladay. He’s always been a ground ball pitcher with a career-worst GB:FB ratio of 1.71 (2009), so a move to Citizen Bank Park shouldn’t affect him too much, and facing NL lineups will only make him that much more devastating.

The AL Rookie of the Year

Matthew Berry: Scott Sizemore (DET)
Eric Karabell: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Christopher Harris: Austin Jackson (DET)
Jason Grey: Scott Sizemore (DET)
Pierre Becquey: Brett Wallace (TOR)
A.J. Mass: Desmond Jennings (TB)
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Brian Matusz (BAL)

My Take: Rookie of the Year is always the toughest to pick, and with Opening Day still over three months away a lot can change. We’ll throw a bunch of names at the wall and see what sticks since playing time is clearly the most crucial factor. As far as Scott Sizemore goes, Tigers’ GM, Dave Dombrowski, has already said, “We expect him to be our second baseman. We have not changed on Sizemore.” Another Tiger, Austin Jackson, is already slated to be getting the start on Opening Day as well. Carlos Santana can hit, but there’s a lot of people vying for that starting role in Cleveland. Brett Wallace is the newest Blue Jay, but playing time there is going to be tough to come by, and from everything I have heard, Jays’ manager Cito Gaston likes to stick with his veterans. Like Wallace and Santana, Desmond Jennings may find playing time hard to come by early on, so I’d rather pick a player who already has a good shot at a starting job. Brian Matusz is an interesting pick, and I’ll throw in his teammate, Chris Tillman, too. Of all the players mentioned here, though, I like Scott Sizemore’s chances the most. He already has the starting job (or so it seems), and he was nearly a 20/20 player in the minors last season, batting .303 with 17 HR, 66 RBI, and 21 SB. They felt comfortable enough to part with Polanco and haven’t made a run at Orlando Hudson, so I’m going to show as much confidence in Sizemore as they have.

The NL Rookie of the Year

Matthew Berry: Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Eric Karabell: Buster Posey (SF)
Christopher Harris: Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Jason Grey: Buster Posey (SF)
Pierre Becquey: Jason Heyward (ATL)
A.J. Mass:  Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Jason Heyward (ATL)

My Take: It sure seems as if there will be a lot more high-end rookie talent on display in the National League in 2010. The Giants are letting Bengie Molina go so they can hand the pitching staff over to 23-year old Buster Posey, the Braves will do whatever they can to give Jason Heyward every chance to win a starting OF job, and you all know the tale of the stupendous Stephen Strasburg. In truth, any of that trio could not only win Rookie of the Year, but they could become fantasy superstars by season’s end. Who is my pick to win the award, though? Mr. Jason Heyward. He has been touted as the next Ken Griffey Jr., and even if that is a bit much, consider his minor league resume: .318/.391/.508 with 164 R, 29 HR, 125 RBI, 26 SB and a solid 138:105 K:BB ratio in 1003 PA. Oh, and he’s only 20 years old! The kid is going to be a superstar, and I think it starts immediately.

The Fantasy Baseball MVP (best value for draft position)

Matthew Berry: Erik Bedard
Eric Karabell: Matt Wieters
Christopher Harris: Tommy Hanson
Jason Grey: Wade Davis
Pierre Becquey: Jason Heyward
A.J. Mass: Nyjer Morgan
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Jay Bruce

My Take: Whichever player wins this award, we can be sure he is one of three things: a guy finally realizing his immense potential (think Kendry Morales), a guy who has an inexplicably good season (think Ben Zobrist), or a guy coming back from injury (think Victor Martinez). All of the above selections have definite merit and as you will realize in coming weeks, I am a HUGE Matt Wieters fan (call me crazy, but I’m keeping him in my 10-team, 5-player keeper league). In the interest of throwing out a few more names, consider Brandon Webb and Diasuke Matsuzaka. According to Mock Draft Central, Webb was taken in the 11th round and Matsuzaka in the 12th round. Let’s not forget how fantastic Webb was in the years prior to last season. Earlier today, Rotoworld.com released a quote from Webb: “I’m hoping to go in and have a normal spring training. If we don’t make the playoffs and I’m not a Cy Young candidate, I’ll be disappointed.” As for Matsuzaka, he had a 18 W, a 2.90 ERA, and 8.3 K/9 in 2008 before the World Baseball Classic affected his conditioning regimen in ’09. He’s back and ready to go. As for hitters, Wieters was mentioned, but I also like Ian Stewart a lot. He had a 92/.313/30/101/19 season back in the minors (2004) and with Garrett Atkins gone, he will finally get the full-time job. Since he’s going in the 12th round, I think it’s a pretty good risk to take. One other guy to make note of is Corey Hart. He had back-to-back 20/20 seasons in ’07 and ’08, but since the All-Star Break in 2008 he has been pretty disappointing. With a draft position in the 160s on Mock Draft Central, here’s to hoping he puts it all together again.

The Highest Rated Player on Player Rater (ESPN has their system, but we like what we’ve done with PSR)

Matthew Berry: Hanley Ramirez
Eric Karabell: Tim Lincecum
Christopher Harris: Albert Pujols
Jason Grey: Albert Pujols
Pierre Becquey: Albert Pujols
A.J. Mass: Albert Pujols
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Albert Pujols

My Take: Pujols will be the highest rated player if position scarcity isn’t factored in. No one does what he does as well as he does, so according to ESPN’s formula, it will be Pujols. According to our formula, which of course does factor in position scarcity (I mean how can you not?) it will be Hanley Ramirez. And don’t give me any of that “Joe Mauer is awesome!” crap. He’s good, but not on Hanley’s level.

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The Next Zack Greinke?

By on December 23, 2009 | Comments { 1 }

Brad Pinkerton of The Sporting News writes in a recent article about identifying aces that breakout stars Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson, and Felix Hernendez had three statistical barometers in common in ’09: H/9 below 8.0, BB/9 below 3.0, and K/9 above 6.0. In fact, it was the first time they’d each accomplished all three in one season. Coincidence or causality? He claims this Holy Trinity of pitching peripherals points to clear success, and because they are all under 30, this success can be linked to future stardom.

I am inclined to agree with Pinkerton’s analysis, and he does a good job of pinpointing the key stats that lead to good W, ERA, and WHIP. So what pitchers were on the verge of stardom?

Scroll through the table below to take a look at the pitchers under 30 who met two of the three barometers Pinkerton identifies (20 pitchers in total). Maybe one of them will emerge this season.

Under 30, Accomplished 2 of 3 in 2009

PitcherAge (Opening Day)H/9 (< 8.0)BB/9 (< 3.0)K/9 (> 6.0)
Verlander, Justin278.22.410.1
Wainwright, Adam288.32.58.2
Jurrjens, Jair247.83.16.4
Lester, Jon268.22.810.0
Jimenez, Ubaldo267.63.58.2
Weaver, Jered278.42.87.4
Kershaw, Clayton226.34.89.7
Jackson, Edwin268.42.96.8
Gallardo, Yovani247.34.69.9
Baker, Scott288.62.27.9
Hanson, Tommy237.43.28.2
Floyd, Gavin278.32.87.6
Garza, Matt267.83.58.4
Nolasco, Ricky279.12.19.5
Shields, James289.82.16.8
Niemann, Jeff279.22.96.2
Harden, Rich287.84.310.9
Sanchez, Jonathan277.44.89.8
Hammel, Jason2810.32.16.8
Slowey, Kevin2811.21.57.4

(use arrows to scroll)

Specific Players to Note in 2010

Adam Wainwright was a Cy Young contender last season, finishing a very close 3rd behind Tim Lincecum and teammate, Chris Carpenter. Although he has already emerged as a top fantasy starter, Wainwright is poised to remain one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Verdict: Wainwright is already there.

Justin Verlander rebounded from a disappointing 2008 to finish 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2009. He lowered both his H/9 and BB/9 to new career bests and raised his K/9 to a career-high and league-leading 10.1. Chances are he will at least come close to repeating his success, but the 240.1 innings he threw in 2009 is a bit worrisome. Remember what happened to Cole Hamels last year after throwing 227.1 innings in the regular season plus 39 in the playoffs. Verdict: He’s been there before (’07) but don’t put all your eggs in his basket.

Jair Jurrjens shocked many fantasy owners last season when he lowered his ERA over a whole point to 2.60, but this was most likely an anomaly. One of the most telling stats about a player’s performance is BABIP (batting average on balls in play). The league average every season hovers around .300. Anything that varies greatly from that indicates a little bit of luck was probably involved. Well, Jurrjens BABIP in ’09 was .274 which means more balls put into play were converted into outs than normally occurs (for reference, Greinke’s BABIP was .307 and Lincecum’s was .288, so quality of the pitcher is excluded from the stat). What am I getting at? Jurrjens’ BB/9 and K/9 remained almost unchanged from 2008 to 2009, but his BABIP was much lower (.307 in 2008) which accounts for the drop in H/9 from 9.0 in 2008 to 7.8 in 2009. Oh, and to counter any other excuses, Atlanta was 14th in fielding percentage last season so it wasn’t that his team was so great behind him. Verdict: Reliable pitcher, but not likely to repeat his stellar ’09 campaign.

Jon Lester decreased his H/9 from 8.6 in 2008 to 8.2 in 2009, but his BABIP actually increased from .300 to .314! Coupled with his staggering 10.0 K/9 and the Red Sox’ focus on defense this season (Bay out, Cameron in, Lowell probably out, Beltre/Adrian Gonzalez probably in) and you have a recipe for a Cy Young season. Verdict: Don’t wait on Lester as he will finish as an elite Cy Young contender.

Yovani Gallardo stumbled through 2009 to a 13-12 record and a 3.73 ERA. His BB/9 unexpectedly rose to 4.6 despite a career average of 3.0 in 134.1 innings. With an already good H/9 and an exceptional K/9, expect his BB/9 to fall back to his career average. After all, he posted a BB/9 of only 3.2 in his minor league career (396.1 IP), so the rise in 2009 is nothing to worry about. Verdict: Prepare for the 24-year old to take his next step toward stardom.

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