That’s what this article is!

To break up the long prose and sometimes convoluted stats, I thought I’d sit down and write a bunch of thoughts I have about the state of starting pitching in 2012. I’ll avoid just asking questions since we’ve already gone and listed a bunch of those in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series, so my hope is that this article inspires a little discussion in the comments section. To our frequent commenters (yeah, there’s a few of you) we thank you for reading our articles and contributing your thoughts. To our hundreds of loyal readers who don’t comment frequently, what are you waiting for?! Anyway, here are some of my early offseason thoughts on starting pitching for your (hopeful) commenting pleasure:

1. It came across the news wire yesterday that Melky Cabrera has been shipped to San Francisco in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez. If you read yesterday’s other article regarding Alex Gordon‘s value next season, you already know I downgraded his run and RBI potential because it’s likely that Cabrera was going to regress. Now, with his bat completely removed from the lineup, we have to wonder where all that extra production is going to come from. As for Sanchez, he finished with the 48th best home run rate last season out of 145 pitchers that threw at least 100 innings and he’s actually moving from a park that discourages home runs to one that downright punishes home run hitters. The average non-San Fran NL West offense last season ranked 16.5 in the league in runs scored whereas the average non-KC AL Central offense ranked 15.8th. There’s not a ton of difference here. If anything I sort of like the move since the Royals have a better chance at a stronger offense as of today.
2. Do you know Yu Darvish? Over the last five years in Japan he’s compiled a 75-28 record and a sub-2.00 ERA. Many believe he’d be the ace of many current MLB rotations. It’s not decided if/where he’ll pitch, but if he does become available it’s going to be something to keep an eye on.
3. With the Rays picking up James Shields‘ extension, it looks unlikely that they’ll trade their ace. Who are some names to watch for offseason movement? Gio Gonzalez, Wandy Rodriguez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Ricky Nolasco, Jeremy Guthrie and some less important names have been rumored to be available. Of those names I think Gonzalez has the most to lose from a fantasy perspective. In the unlikely event he’s traded, he’ll likely go to a contender with a better offense, but I’d hate to have him leave that ballpark.
4. I’m bullish on Jon Lester in 2012. Maybe it’s the Red Sox fan in me, but Lester was the only member of the team’s rotation to come forward and really acknowledge their lack of effort, and with his semi-contrite half-confession (at this point I’ll take what I can get) and the team’s new management, I can’t help but think it’s all systems go heading forward. I’m willing to gamble on Lester being a low-tier ace (read: top 10 SP) next season.
5. Speaking of the Red Sox, it’s no surprise that they were again among the league’s most potent offenses, but with John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka victims of Tommy John, two-fifths of the Boston rotation is currently vacant. The Yankees are having issues of their own, so is it any surprise that the Red Sox and Yankees are bumbling big money teams while the Rays, and their dearth of young pitching, continue to threaten for the division and the Rangers have made back-to-back World Series appearances, this time on the back of a top-10 starting rotation? Enough with the ranting. From a fantasy perspective, whoever wins those rotation spots in Boston and New York are likely to stumble into a few wins, but don’t let that change how you value them as fantasy contributors. Somehow Lackey ended up with 12 wins and a .500 record, besting Doug Fister‘s 11-13 mark (but not his 2.83 ERA). Wins suck.
6. The more I look at Brandon Beachy‘s stats, the more impressed I am with him as a pitcher. He had a 3.19 FIP, the eighth best O-Contact% (percent of pitches outside the strike zone that batters swing and miss at) of the 145 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings and the 16th best strikeout-to-walk ratio. Expect big things from this kid.
7. Justin Verlander finished with a .236 BABIP against, the fourth lowest rate of said 145 pitchers. We know this rate fluctuates wildly for pitchers from year to year, so how much regression should Verlander see? His previous career low was .279. If the relationship between his FIP, xFIP and ERA tells us anything, it says we should expect an ERA over 3.00 next year. Either way, that will certainly be elite.
8. I don’t understand Matt Cain. 2011 was the first time I had ever conceded that Cain was as good as his inexplicable peripherals indicate and then he replicated them again. His .260 BABIP is now the norm and not an outlier (career .265) and his while his career 4.26 xFIP depicts a pitcher better suited to be a team’s number three, Cain is every bit the ace that Tim Lincecum is. Between Cain, Lincy and Madison Bumgarner, it’s no wonder why the Giants felt they could let Sanchez go.
9. Who’s the real Justin Masterson? Is it the guy who can’t get lefties out and masquerades as a legitimate part of a major league rotation or the guy who shuts down elite offenses and masquerades as the ace of a rebuilding team’s rotation? I have no friggen clue…yet.
10. I do not believe in Josh Collmenter so don’t even think about drafting him next year. He allows too many fly balls (47%) for the park he plays in and his BABIP (.255) is too low.
11. Even though I badmouthed him all season, it might be time to buy Vance Worley. His end-of-season BABIP (.283) isn’t awfully low and his FIP (3.32) is actually very good. He’s always had great control in the minors, but I do wonder if he’ll replicate that 8.13 K/9 from last season. My thought is no.
12. I feel bad for anyone in a keeper league who needs to decide what to do with Ubaldo Jimenez. I wouldn’t wish that kind of mental torture on anyone. He has so much potential but we haven’t seen him pitch well since early 2010. That’s like nine months of baseball without a stretch that gives you any semblance of confidence. Seriously, how do you evaluate this guy? Do you take the chance that he’s the Jimenez of old and hold onto him or do you cut your losses and play it safe with someone like Aramis Ramirez? Maybe you roll the dice and go with the uber-talented Colby Rasmus. I do think Toronto is a good situation for him. By the way, I’ve been describing my offseason dilemma this whole time. Tell me what to do!

Fantasy baseball playoffs are all about matchups. You know your opponent’s roster, you know your roster and — if you’re really committed to winning — you probably know some good late-week matchups you can exploit if things are a little too close for your liking.

Here are some good and bad pitching matchups for the remaining games this week as you look to move on to the championship round. I’ll do my best to exclude blatantly obvious calls like Justin Verlander facing the White Sox tonight. I don’t care who Verlander’s facing. You start him regardless. (Obviously, this comes with the caveat that if he’s pitching on the last day of the week and ERA and/or WHIP are yours to lose, he could be facing that team from California who won the LLWS and I’m still benching him.)

Wednesday

Good

• Edwin Jackson, STL (@PIT) — Pittsburgh ranked 25th in the league in runs scored in August and 27th through nearly two weeks of September. Since getting lit up by Milwaukee on August 3, Jackson has tossed 44 1/3 innings over seven starts, going 3-1 with a 2.64 ERA in the process.
• Ivan Nova, NYY (@SEA) — Nova is the 2011 version of Phil Hughes. Last season the Yankees scored in bunches for Hughes as he went on to finish the year with 18 wins. Nova has 15 Ws right now, but he’s been earning them of late. Since the All-Star Break Nova is 7-0 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, and he’s actually been better on the road this year (3.47 ERA vs. 4.42 ERA). Pitching at Safeco against an anemic Seattle offense that’s averaging just 2.75 runs per game in September should be easy pickings.

Bad

• Ricky Romero, TOR (@BOS) — Romero fared well in his last outing against the Red Sox in Toronto on September 8 (6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 K, 8 baserunners). With that start Romero “improved” to 1-2 against Boston this season with an 8.22 ERA and 2.15 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings. The Sox are scuffling of late, but starting Romero is an unnecessary risk.

Thursday

Good

• Kyle Kendrick, PHI (vs. FLA) — Kendrick is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 13 innings against the Marlins this season. He’s been great since the break posting a 2.85 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 41 innings over six starts and two relief appearances, and by almost any metric Florida’s offense ranks in the bottom third of all MLB offenses.
• Chris Capuano, NYM (vs. WAS) — Capuano was great last time out against the Cubs, allowing just one earned run and striking out six over seven innings. He has a 4.49 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the season, but at home those numbers drop to 3.78 and 1.23, respectively. His numbers against Washington aren’t good this year, but he hasn’t faced them since April and the Nationals have the league’s 26th-best OPS versus left-handed pitchers (.659). The league average OPS versus lefties is .721.

Bad

• Jeremy Hellickson, TB (@BOS) — Tampa Bay pitching has owned the Red Sox all season, but that comes to an end on Thursday as Hellickson squares off against Andrew Miller at Fenway Park. On the surface it looks like a juicy chance to pick up the win — and it probably is as Miller hasn’t been great this year — but I expect a high-scoring affair. In three starts against Boston this season, Hellickson has a solid 3.93 ERA and mediocre 1.38 WHIP, but he’s allowed 10 walks to just five strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings against the Red Sox. More worrisome, Hellickson has walked a ton of batters on the road this season (4.56 BB/9) versus at home (1.93 BB/9). I’m avoiding this matchup.
• Brandon McCarthy, OAK (vs. DET) — As of this writing, Detroit has won 10 straight and scored 16 more runs than any other team in the month of September (92 to Texas’ 76), and they have the 5th-best OPS versus right-handers this season (.762 vs. .718 league average). McCarthy has been consistently great all season, but he’s running into a buzz saw at the wrong time. If there is a positive to be found, it’s that opposing starter Max Scherzer has an ERA over 5.00 on the road this season.

Friday

Good

• Matt Garza, CHC (vs. HOU) — Garza is pitching at home (where his 2.64 ERA is two full runs less than his road ERA) against the hapless Astros, and he already has a 2.65 ERA in 78 innings after the break. It’s the perfect storm.
• Vance Worley, PHI (vs. STL) — Every once in a while you see a stat that’s so perplexing you might as well close your eyes and roll with it. Worley’s 9-0 record, 1.62 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in night games is just such an example. During day games Worley is just 2-2 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, and those terrifyingly awful day numbers are over 33 2/3 innings. While not quite a full season’s worth of stats, it’s enough for me to wonder what the heck is going on. St. Louis boasts a middling offense and the game is in Philadelphia (where Worley is 6-0 with a 2.07 ERA and 0.98 WHIP), so I’m willing to bet he pitches pretty well.
• Madison Bumgarner, SF (@COL) — Bumgarner has tossed two great games against the Rockies but doesn’t have a win to show for it. He’s been even better in the second half and Colorado’s offense has been average of late, so even though the game’s at Coors, I feel fine starting Bumgarner.

Bad

• Tim Stauffer, SD (vs. ARI) — Even though Stauffer has great numbers at home (5-5, 2.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), I’m not starting him against the Diamondbacks. Arizona has scored the seventh most runs in September and have been an above average offense on the road all season, and Stauffer has stumbled to a 5.61 ERA since the All-Star Break. He’s pitched well against Arizona so far this season, but this matchup is ripe with peril.
• Trevor Cahill, OAK (vs. DET) — You might be tempted to ignore Cahill’s awful second half stats (6.86 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) because he’s pitching at home (3.08 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) and he’s already dominated the Tigers once this season (8 IP, 1 ER, 9 K, 4 baserunners). If you’re leaning towards starting him here, you’re one step closer to getting bounced from the playoffs.

Saturday

Good

• Colby Lewis, TEX (@SEA) — Anybody pitching at Seattle generally finds themselves listed under the “good matchup” heading, but Lewis has a chance to turn in a phenomenal outing here. He’s 7-5 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 14 road starts this season and he’s owned the Mariners in particular to the tune of a 1.62 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 19 Ks in 16 2/3 innings.
• Jeanmar Gomez, CLE (@MIN) — Gomez has made three starts since finding his way back onto the Indians’ roster in late August. In those three starts he’s 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The Twins have scored the second fewest runs since the start of September, averaging just 3.3 runs per game, and the Twins have the third-worst OPS versus right-handed pitchers in the league (.655 vs. .718 league average). Don’t fret about Gomez pitching on the road. His last two outings were at the Royals and at the White Sox.
• Jake Westbrook, STL (@PHI) — It’s not easy pitching at Philadelphia, but Westbrook has a good chance at getting a win here. He’s facing Roy Oswalt who has a 1.42 ERA this season and represents the “weak link” in the Philadelphia rotation (I use that phrase loosely), and Westbrook has actually been very good on the road (8-3, 3.65 ERA) and in the second half (5-4, 3.65 ERA). He also shut down the Phightin’ Phils once already this season with seven innings of one-run ball back in mid-May.

Bad

• Jon Lester, BOS (vs. TB) — I still advise you start Lester here, but I think you should be aware that this start has bust potential. Lester is worse at home than on the road (3.33 ERA vs. 2.88 ERA), he’s worse at night than during the day (3.64 ERA vs. 2.02 ERA) and he’s struggled some against Tampa Bay this season (1-2, 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 18 IP). Just sayin’.
• Michael Pineda, SEA (vs. TEX) — Pineda’s season stats still look pretty nice, but he’s struggled mightily since the break (1-4, 5.17 ERA) and has been roughed up by the Rangers this season (0-2, 4.74 ERA in 19 IP).

Sunday

Good

• Aaron Harang, SD (vs. ARI) — Unlike Stauffer’s start on Friday, I think this is a good spot to start a Padre versus the D-Backs. Harang has been great at home, too, but he’s not really struggling of late and he shut down Arizona as recently as August 27…at Arizona.
• Joe Saunders, ARI (@SD) — Of course if Saunders is available, I prefer him to Harang. Saunders is 8-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in road games this season and has been nearly unhittable versus the Padres in three starts this season (2-1, 2.05 ERA, 0.91 WHIP in 22 IP).
• Brett Myers, HOU (@CHC) — It’s not been the kind of year Myers had hoped for after a great 2010 season, but he can still be useful in the right situations. This is one of those situations. His road ERA is just 4.31 this year, but he’s posted a 3.96 mark in the second half and has a 2-0 record with a 2.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in three starts versus the Cubs this season.

Bad

• Dillon Gee, NYM (@ATL) — Gee has been one of my favorite spot starters this season, but I wouldn’t dare start him on the road (5.59 ERA in 13 road starts) even though he’s owned the Braves this season (2.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 27 IP). His second half ERA is over 5.00 as well.
• Zach Britton, BAL (vs. LAA) — It might be tempting to start Britton at home against the Angels because of his 2.84 home ERA, but that number is inflated (deflated?) because the vast majority of his home starts came at the beginning of the season when he was pitching well. Sure, he shut down the Yankees over seven innings a few weeks back, but his other recent home starts don’t look so clean.

Players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Check back tomorrow for players 21 through 40 as we count down the top 100.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

• Keepers 1-20
• Keepers 21-40
• Keepers 61-80
• Keepers 81-100

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

Rank	Player	Age	Position	Professor's Note
41	Eric Hosmer	22	1B	Looks a lot like the next Joey Votto
42	Alex Rodriguez	36	3B	Hasn't topped 138 games played in last four years
43	Jon Lester	28	SP	Elite K, ERA, W potential with a pedestrian WHIP
44	Matt Cain	27	SP	Great ERA/WHIP every year but K/9 and W totals aren't ace-like
45	David Price	26	SP	Similar to Lester with lower WHIP but fewer W
46	Dan Uggla	32	2B	Second half surge renewed faith in Uggla's all-around game
47	Joe Mauer	28	C	Just 12 HR in last two years but move to 1B is likely coming
48	Desmond Jennings	25	OF	Looks like the next Carl Crawford with better plate discipline
49	Rickie Weeks	29	2B	Freak injury derailed a second straight stellar season; have faith
50	Asdrubal Cabrera	26	SS	Can the power carry over? Even if not he's still a well-rounded, young SS
51	Shin-Soo Choo	29	OF	Real rough year for Choo but I think he's the guy from '09 and '10
52	Victor Martinez	33	C	Can you show me a more consistent C? Now a DH, age is no concern
53	Madison Bumgarner	22	SP	Major steps forward in '11; next year he becomes a near-ace
54	Mat Latos	24	SP	Low W potential but the rest is elite; '11 struggles were a fluke
55	Ben Zobrist	30	1B/2B/OF	Fantasy's preeminent utility guy does it all
56	Ricky Romero	27	SP	Low 3.00s ERA in AL East is something to behold
57	Michael Young	35	1B/2B/3B	Power dropped but he's the only consistency in heart of Rangers' lineup
58	Brett Lawrie	22	3B	Always worth taking a chance on a guy with his power/speed combo
59	Tommy Hanson	25	SP	Tendency toward breaking pitches worries me
60	Paul Konerko	36	1B	Getting old but back-to-back .900+ OPS years show he's not done yet

After Friday’s and Saturday’s slew of pitching greatness, it more than confirmed that we are in for another historically good season for the guys on the mound—at least the ones starting the games.

Justin Verlander completed a no-hit effort against the Blue Jays, Yovani Gallardo had a no-hit bid in the eighth broken up, Jaime Garcia took a perfect game into the eighth inning, Derek Lowe had a no-hitter go into the seventh, while his opposing pitcher Cliff Lee struck out 16 batters in a losing effort. Oh, and earlier in the week Francisco Liriano took an ERA over nine into a game against the White Sox and pitched a no-hitter.

Here’s to hoping for the same success this week!

The Top 20

1. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants — (vs. ARI, @CHC)

Lincecum is off to a very hot start and gets the nod at the top spot this week. For whatever reason, he has struggled at home with a 6.17 ERA and 10 K:7 BB ratio in 11 2/3 innings, but has been almost unhittable on the road (.180 BAA). Still, Lincecum’s 10.84 K/9 cannot be ignored and he remains a threat for 20-plus strikeouts anytime he has two starts.

2. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves — (vs. WAS, vs. PHI)

Hanson sees his highest ranking of the season thanks to two easy matchups. Both the Nationals (26th) and the Phillies (14th) offenses are ranked outside the top 10 in terms of OPS and Hanson has been lights out this season with a .211 BAA and 41 K:10 BB ratio in 41 innings pitched.

3. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox — (vs. MIN, @NYY)

4. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays — (@CLE, vs. BAL)

5. Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers — (@PIT, vs. ARI)

6. Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies — (vs. NYM, vs. SD)

Last season, Chacin struck out one batter per inning and allowed just 10 home runs, but this year his 7.02 K/9 is slightly underwhelming and he has already surrendered six home runs. With two games at home—where he has been surprisingly very good—I expect Chacin to have two very quality starts against sub-par offenses.

7. Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers — (vs. SD, vs. PIT)

It’s a bit of a leap of faith that Greinke is completely healthy and ready to go, but sometimes it takes a pitcher one start to shake off the rust. He will have a great opportunity to bounceback in a big way with two starts against the 29th and 25th ranked offenses in terms of OPS.

8. Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays — (vs. DET, @MIN)

9. Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics — (@TEX, vs. CHW)

10. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers — (@TOR, vs. KC)

11. Michael Pineda, Seattle Mariners — (@BAL, @CLE)

12. Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks — (@SF, @LAD)

For some reason Kennedy has just a 6 K:5 BB ratio in 11 1/3 road innings, but a 31:7 ratio in 33 2/3 home innings. Still, his ERA is almost  a full run better on the road and I’m sure he is relieved to know he will be pitching at ballparks such as AT&T Park and Dodger Stadium rather than the hitter’s haven that is Chase Field.

13. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals — (@CHC, @CIN)

14. Mat Latos, San Diego Padres — (@MIL, @COL)

15. C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers — (vs. OAK, vs. LAA)

16. Ted Lilly, Los Angeles Dodgers — (@PIT, vs. ARI)

I’m going to live or die by Lilly this season. His rocky start isn’t going to deter me from starting him because I believe there are too many things working in his favor for him not to succeed. He struggled in April last year, so hopefully he can put together another solid run to redeem his 2011 season.

17. Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians — (vs. TB, vs. SEA)

18. Travis Wood, Cincinnati Reds — (@HOU, vs. STL)

19. Jake Arrieta, Baltimore Orioles — (vs. SEA, @TB)

20. Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs — (vs. STL, vs. SF)

Zambrano has two very tough matchups against Carpenter and Lincecum this week so it’s tough to expect any wins from him. However, he has pitched a quality start in three of his last four games so if you are in a deeper league you should consider picking him up for his two-start week.

Sleeper two-start pitcher

Vance Worley, Philadelphia Phillies —(@FLA, @ATL)

Worley has shown he can dominate a bad offense like the Nationals at home, but this will be his real test with two games on the road against two quality teams. I think he could pick up a win against the Marlins, but a tough matchup against Hanson and the Braves isn’t something I’m too excited about.

Bust two-start pitcher

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins — (@BOS, vs. TOR)

I’m sure by now you’ve heard how bad Liriano’s no-hitter was—and yes that is possible—but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was the kind of start that Liriano needed to get his season going. However, it also wouldn’t surprise me if his no-hitter was all luck and he reverted back to the guy he was before. I’m still not trusting him, especially against two stacked lineups. If he holds up this week, I’ll be ready to trust him again.

With so many top pitchers having two starts in week 5 I have a feeling setting your lineup this week is going to be fun. If not, then good luck to you.

Top 20 Two-Start Pitchers

1. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox – (vs. LAA, vs. MIN)

2. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels – (@ BOS, vs. CLE)

3. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – (vs. CHC, @ NYM)

4. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves – (vs. MIL, @ PHI)

5. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers - (vs. NYY, @ TOR)

6. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees – (@ DET, @ TEX)

7. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox – (vs. LAA, vs. MIN)

8. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies - (vs. WAS, vs. ATL)

Oswalt is scheduled to start on Tuesday but he may not make the start as he’s tending to family issues back home. For more on what Oswalt is going through check out Doug Glanville’s story on ESPN.com. Here’s to hoping his family is all right.

9. Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers – (@ SEA, vs. NYY)

10. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers - (@ ATL, @ STL)

11. Anibal Sanchez, Florida Marlins – (@ STL, vs. WAS)

12. Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals – (vs. FLA, vs. MIL)

13. Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves – (vs. MIL, @ PHI)

14. Kyle McClellan, St. Louis Cardinals (vs. FLA, vs. MIL)

15. Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays (vs. TOR, @ BAL)

16. Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies (@ ARZ, @ STL)

17. Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles (@ CHW, vs. TB)

18. Aaron Harang, San Diego Padres (vs. PIT, vs. ARZ)

19. Bartolo Colon, New York Yankees (@ DET, @ TEX)

20. Brandon McCarthy, Oakland Athletics (vs. TEX, @ KC)

Two-Start Sleepers

Derek Holland, Texas Rangers (@ OAK, vs. NYY)

The game against New York is a tough matchup but he pitched well in Yankee Stadium earlier this year. Although he let up five runs in that start, he should have been taken out after seven innings. Instead Robinson Cano hit a two-run homer in the eighth against him. Holland has pitched better than his numbers indicate. The strikeouts are there but he hasn’t yet avoided that one mistake pitch per game that yields a few runs.

Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians (@ OAK, @ LAA)

It’s been smoke and mirrors so far for Tomlin but the hot steak could continue against two weak hitting AL West teams.

James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates (@ SD, vs. HOU)

The popular breakout candidate has yet to get his feet under him on the young season. However, he pitched six shutouts innings in his last start and he draws the weak hitting Padres at PETCO and the unimposing Astros at home.

Two-Start Pitchers to Avoid

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs (@ LAD, vs. CIN)

To call Dempster’s start to the season a slump is an understatement. After allowing seven runs and only recording one out in his last start, Dempster’s ERA and WHIP sit at 9.87 and 1.87, respectively. Even more discouraging is that there have been reports that his velocity has been down, though Cubs officials say that is not the case. Either way I can’t trust Dempster right now.

Livan Hernandez, Washington Nationals (@ PHI, @ FLA)

The 3.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP might have you intrigued but I wouldn’t trust Hernandez with two road starts this week against more than capable offenses.

Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners (vs. TEX, vs. vs. CHW)

With two home starts and coming off of a seven innings and one run performance against the Tigers, Bedard appears to be an intriguing option this week. However, Texas kills left handed pitching and Chicago’s offense is a sleeping giant right now. Plus 2007 Bedard is like Santa Clause. Believe all you want but he doesn’t exist.

The Top 20

1. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels — (vs. OAK, @TB)

So 2010 seems like it was the real deal. Weaver get’s an easy matchup with basball’s fifth worst offense in terms of OPS (.647) and then gets to face a Rays lineup that has struck out the ninth most times (150).

2. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies — (@ARI, vs. NYM)

3. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants — (@PIT, @WAS)

Cain makes a huge leap into the top five because of weak competition. The Pirates (.663 OPS, 169 K) and Nationals (.638 OPS) have little to brag about offensively and Cain could have a big strikeout week.

4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners — (@DET, @BOS)

5. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels — (vs. OAK)

6. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco — (@PIT)

7. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies — (vs. NYM)

8. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers — (vs. SEA)

9. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers — (@FLA)

10. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves — (@SD)

11. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies — (vs. PIT)

Ubaldo took all of one inning to shake off the rust when he came off the DL last week. Now, he is ready to go and is facing a struggling Pirates offense. I can feel a seven-inning, 10-strikeout performance coming.

12. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox — (@BAL)

13. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis — (@HOU, @ATL)

Garcia is off to another great start and should continue with a favorable one against the sorry Astros offense. One reason for caution is that he struggled through his last two starts and pitches better at home than on the road. Still, with two starts, Garcia is a top 15 pitcher for this week.

14. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays — (vs. LAA)

15. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins — (@CIN)

Johnson has been nearly unhittable this season (.112 BA), but his competition has been fairly easy. Three of his four starts have been at home and against the Mets, Nationals and Pirates. The Reds will be his first true test of the season so I have some reservations putting Johnson in the top 10. Obviously you are still starting him and expecting a good outing nonetheless.

16. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees — (vs. CHW)

17. Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers — (vs. SD)

Kuroda has already faced the Padres this year and was just one out away from a shut out. He struck out four batters and allowed six hits and two walks. You can expect much of the same this time around as the Padres offense is one of the worst in the league.

18. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals — (@ATL)

19. Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers — (@HOU)

20. Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics — (@LAA, vs. TEX)

Gonzalez is pitching as advertised; great stuff, but struggles with control. He currently has a 23:13 K:BB ratio, which is good for him. This week he gets two starts and even though one is against the tough Rangers offense, he has a 2.09 ERA in six starts against them in his career.

Pitchers I Like

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals — (@HOU) — We touted Lohse first as an NL-only pickup, but now he should be owned in mixed leagues as well. He gets to face a below average offense in Houston and should continuethis hot start.

Bruce Chen, Kansas City Royals — (vs. MIN) — The Twins struggle mightily against lefties (.564 OPS). Bruce Chen is a lefty. Chen has also been quietly very effective this season with three straight quality starts and he should extend that to four after this week.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves — (@SD, vs. STL)  — Lowe was on a tear before his start against the Dodgers in which he lasted only three innings while giving up five runs. I think he gets back on track with an easy matchup against the Padres and then you hope he’s at least serviceable against the Cardinals.

Pitchers I Don’t Like

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves — (vs. STL) — Albert Pujols (.462 BA), Matt Holliday (.375), Lance Berkman (.500) and Colby Rasmus (.556). Those are their career batting averages against Hudson, which tells me that you should probably sit him this week.

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians — (vs. KC, vs. DET) — I have a feeling that Masterson’s run is over and he will be back to waiver wire duties soon enough. Lefties are starting to get to him a little more now, which is what his problem has been his entire career. He’s been very good so far, but once his control goes he is due for some ugly outings.

Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks — (vs. PHI, vs. CHC) — Hudson’s biggest problem this year is his control (4.44 BB/9). Given that his walk rate throughout his whole career hovered around 2.7, I have to think that this is a fluke. Other than the walks, Hudson is striking out a ton of batters (9.64 K/9) and FIP (3.55), xFIP (3.68) and tERA (4.24) are all well below his actual ERA of 5.92. This could be the week he turns it around as the Phillies and Cubs are both in the bottom 10 in walks, but until Hudson shows the problem is behind him I would advise to sit. Just keep believing.

It was an interesting week that has seen a lot of the improbable happen and I’m sure it will continue. The Red Sox and Rays got off to historically bad starts, while St. Louis lost Matt Holliday after opening day and Albert Pujols has been horrible at the plate. OK, that last one just makes no sense.

Meanwhile, the Indians have scored the fourth-most runs (44) in the majors and the Royals have 14 steals, which is five more than the second-place White Sox (9).

I wouldn’t read too much into the start of the season; Pujols will hit and the Red Sox and Rays will get back on track, while the Indians and Royals will fade into nothingness. However, with the top offenses struggling, it’s time to capitalize on those favorable pitching matchups and you will notice that there are a lot of them this week.

The Top 20

1. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners – (TOR, @KC)

King Felix is back on top where he rightfully belongs. A very favorable matchup against Kansas City will boost his value and he should be a good bet to strike out over 15 batters for the week with at least one win.

2. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals – (@ARI, @LAD)

3. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels – (CLE, @CHW)

4. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers – (TEX, @OAK)

5. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies – (@WAS)

6. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies – (@WAS)

Halladay and Lee both have great matchups, but fall to fifth and sixth on the list because of their one-start week. It will be a great start though as the Nationals have a team OPS of .634 so far this season.

7. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants – (LAD)

8. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – (STL)

9. Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers – (@PIT, @WAS)

10. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers – (@WAS)

Last week I touted Gallardo for his strikeout potential, but coming into his third start of the week, he had only struck out four batters in two starts. It’s still too early to tell if he is changing the type of pitcher he is, but it’s worth it to keep in the back of your mind and look out for it continuing.

11. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins – (@ATL)

12. Jered Weaver Los Angeles Angels – (@CHW)

13. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox – (TB)

Despite matching up with the Rays’ ace (David Price), Lester is in good position to have a very good start this week. The Tampa Bay lineup has looked lost without Evan Longoria and Lester pitched great in his last start against Cleveland. Keep in mind that Tampa Bay is tied for the third most strikeouts in the majors (59) so far.

14. Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox – (OAK, LAA)

15. Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves – (FLA)

Over the last three years, Hudson has struck out 5.54 batter per nine, but that number goes way up to 8.53 when he faces the Marlins.  He also owns a 3.45 ERA against the Marlins over that same span.

16. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees – (TEX)

17. Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics – (@CHW, DET)

Cahill faces a tough Chicago offense in a hitter’s ballpark, but he is the type of pitcher than can cripple a team’s offense with his ability to induce ground balls. Plus, the White Sox will be without Adam Dunn.

18. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals – (@LAD) Thu–@LAD (Kuroda)

19. Brett Myers (HOU) – (CHC, SD)

Last year, Myers went 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 87:22 K:BB ratio at home. He hasn’t pitched there yet this year, but he’s looked good in his two road starts and gets to face the 23-ranked Padres offense (.625 OPS).

20. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies – (FLA) Fri–FLA (Vazquez)

Some Pitchers I Like

Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays – (@SEA) – While he will have a tough time winning against last year’s Cy Young winner, Romero has looked great this year (2 GS, 1.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and made me look like a genius for touting him so much in the preseason. That being said, he gets another great matchup this week playing in a pitching environment against a bad offense. He may not get the win, but he won’t disappoing elsewhere.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies – (CHC) – Chacin induced 15 ground balls in his first start against the Dodgers, showing his great ability to keep the ball on the ground. However, through seven games, the Cubs have hit the sixth fewest ground balls (79) in the majors. Something’s gotta give and I’m willing to bet Chacin gets the best of this lineup.

Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds – (@SD, PIT) – It’s strikeouts you want? Volquez has 13 strikeouts in 11 innings so far and will face the Pirates who lead the league in strikeouts (73) and the Padres who rank 17th with 48. Volquez hasn’t looked great otherwise so make sure you brace yourself for a potential high ERA and WHIP, but the potential is there for a monster week.

Brian Duensing, Minnesota Twins – (KC, @TB) – Compared to the Yankees, the Royals and Rays offenses will seem like a piece of cake for Duensing. He surprisingly struck out seven batters against New York, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he struck out a combined seven batters this week. His real appeal here is a chance for a low ERA and WHIP and two decent win opportunities.

Ted Lilly, Los Angeles Dodgers – (@SF) – This is more of a gut call, but I think Lilly gets on track this week against the Giants. The Giants offense has been pretty good so far, posting a .778 OPS, but that number dips to .570 when facing left-handed pitching. Look for Lilly to right the ship.

Some Pitchers I Don’t Like

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins – (KC) – With how the Royals are mashing left-handed pitching (1.039 OPS in 67 AB) and the way Liriano has been struggling this year, I wouldn’t call this an automatic start situation. Sometimes stats tell more of a story than just the name.

Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers  – (@DET, @NYY) – Yikes, Ogando is still getting used to his starting role in Texas and this week he has to travel to Detroit and New York? Not only does he face two very good offenses, but he is up against Justin Verlander and A.J. Burnett, making his win potential very low.

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays – (@BOS, MIN) – Hellickson has two matchups against struggling offenses, but this isn’t last week. Both offenses should wake up soon and when they do—watch out. Hellickson struck out 10 batters in 5 2/3 innings last week against the Angels, but he still lost the game and gave up six hits and two walks. He also allowed 10 fly balls compared to just three ground balls, which will be a problem in Fenway Park.

Ever since Edwin Jackson moved to Chicago he has been a completely different pitcher and he’s picked it right back up in his two starts this season.

Before the trade, Jackson had a 5.16 ERA, 6.97 strikeout rate and a 4.02 walk rate in 134 1/3 innings, but after the move he improved to 3.24/9.24/2.16 rates in 75 innings.

That’s enough of a history lesson. In his two first starts this year, Jackson has pitched 14 innings and posted a 1.93 ERA, 12.86 strikeout rate and 0.45 walk rate. One explanation of the sudden success is that since Jackson joined the White Sox, he has thrown his most effective pitch—a slider—more often and cut down on his fastballs.

That trend has continued this year and if Jackson can keep it up he could be a top 30 pitcher and a great value. I’m buying.

Three Up

Jon Lester, SP, BOS - 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K

Adam Jones, OF, BAL - 2-for-3, 2 R,  HR, 3 RBI, SB

Trevor Cahill, SP, OAK - 8 IP, 3 H,  ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Three Down

Ryan Raburn, OF, DET - 0-for-4, 3 K, 3 LOB

Jorge Posada, DH, NYY - 0-for-4, 3 K, 3 LOB

Jonathan Niese, SP, NYM - 4 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, BB, 7 K

Notes:

• It was nice to see Lester bounce back from his rough opener, but the Red Sox offense is just non-existent right now. Other than Adrian Gonzalez (.304 BA), no batter is hitting north of .250. In fact, J.D. Drew is the second highest with a .231 batting average. It’s easy to panic after an offense has been shutdown by the lackluster trip of Mitch Talbot, Josh Tomlin and Fausto Carmona, but it’s still early and you drafted a lot of these batters early for a reason. They will bounce back and I wouldn’t be surprised if it took the first home series against the New York Yankees to wake their bats up.

• Ever since his blown save on opening day, John Axford has settled down and converted two saves over 2 2/3 innings while allowing just three baserunners and striking out one batter. Maybe there was too much hype going into the season, but there was definitely too much panic after just one outing. The job is Axford’s and it’s going to take more than one blow save to put him on the hot seat.

• No one saw it coming, but A.J. Burnett is 2-0 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. What’s even more impressive is his 11:3 K:BB ratio because Burnett is usually a very wild pitcher. Yes, it’s only two starts and I don’t think he will keep up the great control numbers, but it’s something to take note of.

Nicks, bruises and cuts:

Houston outfielder Michael Bourn sat out yesterday’s game with a sore groin. … Blue Jays shortstop Yunel Escobar didn’t play because of a mild concussion. … J.J. Hardy was a late scratch for the Orioles with tightness in his lower left rib cage.

Links around the Major Leagues:

• Rich Harden continues his road back to the majors.
• Marlins rookie Mike Stanton should return to the lineup this weekend.
• Brad Lidge is hopeful for a return around the All-Star break.
• It’s what everyone’s been waiting for; Bryce Harper‘s minor-league debut.
• After missing some time in Spring Training, Ian Stewart is still getting into Major League shape.

Ian Kinsler hit a home run in the Rangers’ first at-bat of the season while Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli also added bombs of their own. Overall, Texas muscled out six extra base hits (even Elvis Andrus joined the party with a double!)out of 10 total hits.

More impressively the team struck out a combined one time in a game where they faced one of baseball’s best strikeout pitchers in Jon Lester. The strikeout, for the record, went to Daniel Bard in the eighth inning.

It’s the same old story with the Rangers hitters as they will score plenty of runs to go around. Their lineup was loaded from one through seven last night and on days where Napoli catches we will see another quality bat in Mitch Moreland in the lineup, giving Texas eight solid hitters and Julio Borbon. All should be owned in mixed leagues.

Three Up
Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW - 3-5, 2 R, HR, 5 RBI
J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR - 3-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3B, 5 RBI
Jeremy Guthrie, SP, BAL - 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB

Three Down
Carl Crawford, OF, BOS - 0-4, 3 K, 5 LOB
Brandon Lyon, CL, HOU - 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE - 3 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 5 K, BB

Notes:

• Everyone worried about Ichiro Suzuki can probably squash those concerns until the second half because I still think those 37-year-old legs will get tired by the end of the year. However, Ichiro has shown that he like to run a lot early so it would be wise to take advantage and then cut bait. Last year, he stole nearly the same number of bases before (22) the break as after (20), but over the last three years his split is 75/36…Felix Hernandez turned in another gem giving up just two runs while striking out five in a complete-game effort. Ho-hum.

• Along with the Rangers, the Blue Jays seem to be the same home-run-hitting team we all loved last year. Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Arencibia (two home runs) each went deep. Arencibia even added a triple, rewarding those owners who waited on catchers in their drafts. Be prepared for a streaky, but solid, season from the rookie catcher…It was nice to see Lind homer as both the Blue Jays and fantasy owners hope he can return to his 2009 MVP-caliber form…Ricky Romero showed why I love him this year with a 13:5 GB:FB ratio and striking out seven batters over 6 1/3 innings.

• Hey, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-0! If the Pirates are going to do any type of damage it’s going to be because of their young core of Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. While Alvarez did nothing, the other three combined for five of Pirates’ seven hits, two home runs, one steal and all six of their RBI. McCutchen, who will be batting third this season after leading off all of last year, should have plenty more RBI opportunities and just adds another facet to his fantasy game.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Toronto’s Aaron Hill, who battled a quadriceps injury during spring training, left yesterday’s game after the seventh inning with the Blue Jays up 10-3…Florida’s Mike Stanton left yesterday’s game after five innings with hamstring tightness…Dodger’s Juan Uribe missed last night’s game with swelling in his elbow after getting hit by a pitch…Oakland’s Kurt Suzuki left last night’s game in the seventh with a mild ankle sprain.

Links around the Major Leagues:

• The Orioles might be without promising starter Brian Matusz for a little while.
• Blue Jays declined a three-year, $26 million option for Hill.
• Jim Leyland wants to find playing time for Brennan Boesch.
• Franklin Gutierrez is making progress with his rehab in Arizona.
• Carlos Beltran felt good after yesterday’s opener.
• It was a shaky start fo the Phillies’ Ben Francisco, but it ended on a good note.
• Stephen Drew missed yesterday’s opener and his status is still uncertain.

Luckily I’m here for you. Like a shoulder to cry on.

(Editor’s Note: This article will focus on the upcoming week’s top starting pitchers and will be posted on Saturdays starting next week. Sorry for not getting this out sooner, a.k.a. before today’s first slate of games. Here’s to hoping you are in a daily transactions league!)

The Top 20

1. Clayton Kershaw – (SF, @COL, @SD)

With three starts, two against sub-par offenses, Kershaw gets the nod here at number one.  A nice start to what could be a very special season.

2. Roy Halladay – (HOU, NYM)

3. Chris Carpenter – (SD, PIT)

4. Josh Johnson – (NYM, WAS)

He’s healthy now and has two favorable matchups—both at home. Until he tweaks something, he will be a top-10 pitcher.

5. Tim Lincecum - (@LAD, @SD)

6. CC Sabathia - (DET, MIN, @BOS)

He’s only this high because of his three-start week. I’m not a fan of his matchups (especially at Boston), but with three starts you can count on Sabathia to get you 15 strikeouts and maybe two wins.

7. Felix Hernandez – (@OAK, @TEX)

King Felix absolutely owns the Athletics (who doesn’t?), but struggles against the Rangers. I see an eight-inning gem followed by a less-than-stellar performance.

8. Ubaldo Jimenez – (ARI, @PIT)

9. Cliff Lee – (HOU, @ATL)

10. Yovani Gallardo – (@CIN, ATL, CHC)

He might get you 20-plus strikeouts but those are three pretty good offenses he’s going up against. The strikeouts put him in the top-10.

11. Jered Weaver – (@KC, TB)

12. Tommy Hanson – (@WAS, @MIL)

13. Justin Verlander – (@NYY, @BAL)

14. Jon Lester – (@TEX, @CLE)

Lester’s struggles in April are well-documented, which is why he falls to 13 this week. Once he gets rolling, he is an automatic top-five option, especially on a two-start week.

15. Matt Cain - (@LAD, STL)

16. David Price – (BAL, @CHW)

17. Cole Hamels – (NYM, @ATL)

18. Ted Lilly – (SF, @SD)

19. Hiroki Kuroda – (SF, @SD)

This note is for both Lilly and Kuroda. The reason why I love them is because of weeks where they will face the the two teams “sans” (Diego and Francisco) offense. See what I did there?

20. Roy Oswalt – (HOU, @ATL)

Some Pitchers I Like

Dan Haren (@KC, TB) - I’m putting the chances of Haren throwing a perfect game against Tampa Bay at 20 percent. After last year how can you not?

Jaime Garcia (SD, @SF) - These first two starts should tell a lot about how Garcia’s season is going to go this year. If he struggles I’d be worried.

Anibal Sanchez (WAS, @HOU) - There are some big expectations for Sanchez going into 2011. He’s coming off his first injury-free season, but will he regress? Facing two sub-par offenses to start doesn’t hurt.

Gio Gonzalez (SEA, @MIN) - Gonzalez is the most-hyped A’s pitcher going into the season and just getting to face Seattle at home is enough to warrant a start for me.

Jake Westbrook (SD, @SF) - It seems like I’m picking on the National League West, but there’s good reason. Between the Giants and Padres there isn’t much to fear after Buster Posey.

Some Pitchers I Don’t Like

Colby Lewis (BOS, @BAL) - We all know how good Boston’s offense is, but Baltimore’s is loaded as well.

Clay Buchholz (@TEX, NYY) - Facing Texas on the road isn’t the best way to start the season and lucky Buchholz get’s the monstrous Yankees lineup to follow. If you can avoid starting Buchholz you should.

Phil Hughes (DET, @BOS) – We don’t know how Hughes is going to respond to the massive innings spike in 2010, but something tells me it’s not going to be a pretty start in his first week.

John Lackey (@TEX, NYY) – I do like Lackey to bounce back this year, but owners should probably wait until week two before starting him with any confidence

Brett Myers (@PHI, @CIN) - Two tough offenses in hitter-friendly ballparks? I think I’ll pass especially if your league counts losses.