Most 2010 projections have Joe Mauer at around .330 with 22 HR and 100 RBI. For a guy who’s won three batting titles, three Silver Slugger Awards and a 2009 MVP Award, that seems like a good estimate to me.

But it isn’t worth your second-round pick.

With a current ADP of 13.2 in ESPN leagues, Mauer is being selected over Ryan Howard, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Justin Upton, Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay, but he won’t put up the numbers that those guys will.

If you’re drafting Mauer in the second round, you’re passing up on too much talent to ensure you get an elite player at a shallow position. Brian McCann and Victor Martinez are the next two catchers to come off draft boards, but not until over 30 picks later in the fifth round, and they contribute in almost every category that Mauer does.

Looking for a .300/20/100 guy? Sounds like Victor Martinez to me. He may not push 100 runs like Mauer will, but he had 88 last year and he should play more games than any other catcher due to Boston’s infield rotation. McCann won’t top 70 runs and won’t play as many games as Martinez, but he’s right there, too.

Who else is available in the fifth round? Players you’ll probably see drafted here include Brandon Phillips, Mark Reynolds, B.J. Upton, Justin Morneau and Jason Bay. They’re very good fantasy producers, but each has a major weakness or question mark.

To illustrate my point a little more clearly, let’s take a look at some either-or scenarios:

Scenario 1: You take Mauer 13th overall.

In this scenario, you jump on Mauer and don’t look back. By the time the fifth round rolls by, you snag Reynolds. You really wanted to take Morneau, but you wisely decided not to invest much of your team’s future in two players from one team who are moving to a new, outdoor stadium.

Scenario 2: You take Howard/Longoria 13th overall.

Since Reynolds is eligible at both first and third base, we’ll look at this from both perspectives. If you take Howard in the second round, you sit back and happily imagine your team with a 45 HR, 140 RBI monster who flourishes in the second half of the season (career .302 hitter). Martinez then comes along in the fifth and you take him, too (there is of course the alternative that you don’t even take Martinez, instead waiting on Matt Wieters in the 10th round or Geovany Soto much later).

After looking at our two scenarios, here are the possible combined projections for your second- and fifth-round picks:

Mauer/Reynolds: 185 R, 60 HR, 215 RBI, 23 SB, .300 AVG

Howard/Martinez: 185 R, 70 HR, 250 RBI, 6 SB, .290 AVG

Longoria/Martinez: 185 R, 60 HR, 230 RBI, 11 SB, .298 AVG

Looking at all three possible pairings, Howard/Martinez looks like the most productive to me. You sacrifice 10 points in batting average and 14 stolen bases (according to projections), but you gain 10 HR and 35 RBI. The steals and batting average can easily be made up with your other picks in the first five rounds or your later picks, and this gives you the added bonus of not having a second-round pick who has missed chunks of time in just about every season. Depending on what projections you have for these players, the numbers may vary slightly, but you’ll find they are pretty accurate.

Of course, this assumes no one really likes Mauer and takes him in the first round.

Man, what a sucker.

Joe Mauer and his 28 HR are the center of one of the hottest offseason fantasy baseball debates of the last few seasons. Blessed with unbelievable baseball ability, Mauer has been a fan favorite for years and always among the highest drafted catchers. After belting 28 HR last year, he is undoubtedly the number one ranked backstop heading into 2010, but debate swirls around what kind of power numbers we can expect.

Estimates usually range from the 18-20, to upwards of 30-32. So what is the real answer? Some of the links below will help you to answer that question.

• This is a great thread I have been contributing to over the last week or so. The last post that I wrote explains why I expect him to hit around 20-22 HR, but everyone seems to have an opinion on it. Read through the thread here.
• Bill James projects 22 HR for Mauer as well. You can find the full projection and more in-depth sabermetrics at Joe Mauer’s Fangraphs.com page.
• Dave Cameron from Fangraphs.com adds in his two cents following Mauer’s eighth HR last season.
• A post on LOLsports with some statistical backing as to why Mauer will not keep up last year’s torrid pace.
• Baseball Professor’s very own, Chris Campanelli, wrote an article on the subject recently.

As a note, I cannot find any articles with legitimate statistical analysis or historical comparisons as to why Mauer will maintain his HR pace.

Call it author’s bias if you want, but have a look for yourself, and if you do find anything legitimate to suggest he may maintain his HR rates from 2009, please please please post it in the comments section. These posts aren’t here to further my opinions, but to organize all the facts in one place.

Happy web hunting.

By: Bryan Curley (Email)

(Don’t forget to check out the 2009 Review of Catchers.)

In an attempt to analyze the direction the position is heading, I decided to take a look at the last three years of averages for catchers to see if I could find any trends that can help you come draft day. So what are we looking at?

• Players for each season were divided into three categories depending on where they finished the regular season in terms of fantasy ranking: 1 to 5, 6 to 10, and 11 to 20. This lets us look at the elite starters, the average starters, and the first group of replacements, showing the depth of the position so you can decide if you want to jump on an elite starter or wait for one of the platoon-type players.
• After dividing the top 20 players into groups, each group was compared from season to season. By doing this, we can see how each individual statistic is progressing over the years. For example, the average number of runs for the elite starters, average starters, and first replacements is extremely stable each season. Conversely, we see great fluctuation among the HR numbers of the elite starters but good consistency among the HR numbers of the first replacements. Knowing this, we can infer that power numbers among the elite starters is rather inconsistent, therefore drafting an elite starter for his HR numbers may be a risky proposition.

So take a look at each of the graphs below to get an idea of some of the trends we see developing. Click on each graph to enlarge.

3-Year Averages For Runs Among Catchers

Runs – Quick Analysis: The stability among each group over the last three years is amazing. Even more amazing, look at the annual drop off from the elite starters to the first starters. The top five average approximately 75 runs per season, whereas the next five average only approximately 55 runs per season. If you don’t get one of the top five catchers, you had better make up this difference at another position.

3-Year Averages For HR Among Catchers

Homeruns – Quick Analysis: While there is a good amount of annual fluctuation among the elite and average starters, the drop off from one to the next is not too severe. Since few owners scoop up two catchers in a draft, if you miss out on an elite starter, it won’t hurt your power totals too much. Just make sure you don’t get caught starting one of the first replacement players as they average approximately nine HR per season versus 15-20 HR per season for the elite and average starters.

3-Year Averages For RBI Among Catchers

RBI – Quick Analysis: In 2007 and 2008, drop off for RBI was rather linear, but 2009 showed a noticeable increase in the average RBI among elite starters. What caused this? The emergence of Joe Mauer and the resurgences of both Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez solidified the upper strata of the catcher position as legitimate run producers, and seeing as that trio (as well as Brian McCann and Kurt Suzuki) bat at the heart of their respective lineups, this trend is likely to continue in 2010.

3-Year Averages For SB Among Catchers

Stolen Bases – Quick Analysis: If you’re drafting your catcher for his stolen base ability, it might be time to rethink your strategy. It is interesting to note, however, that the first replacements have averaged more steals than the average starters each of the last three seasons, especially in 2009. If you consider the position as a whole, this makes sense. Remember that the average HR among the elite starters and average starters was relatively even, but what makes the elite starters better than the average starters is their ability to contribute in multiple categories. This means our average starters are usually going to be moderately talented sluggers without a complete game. What kind of players are consistently falling in this average starter group? Bengie Molina, Kelly Shoppach, A.J. Pierzynski, and Chris Iannetta are just a few of the players we’ve seen here in the last few seasons. All of them (perhaps aside from Pierzynski since he hits for good AVG too) are slugging specialists without much speed. The first replacements lack this slugging ability and are thus some of the quicker, smaller catchers such as Carlos Ruiz, Jason Kendall, and Ivan Rodriguez. This analysis is almost completely useless to you, but I always like when statistical analysis truly portrays real life.

3-Year Averages For Batting Average Among Catchers

Batting Average – Quick Analysis: No surprise here. Among all standard baseball statistics, AVG is probably the single best barometer of hitting ability. Therefore, it stands to reason that as the quality of catcher drops, so do their average AVGs. From a fantasy perspective, a lower AVG tends to negatively impact both RBI (more men left on base) and R (fewer chances to score).