Best case scenario: Stays healthy and finishes first among all catchers
Similar players: Miguel Montero (ARI), Mike Napoli (TEX) with a better average but fewer homers, Michael Young (TEX)
Worst case scenario: Injuries linger once again

Strengths

BA, R, RBI, vs. RHP. These three stats are very hard to find among catchers, particularly the first two. With Victor Martinez out, no other catcher can provide all three like a healthy Mauer. And while Mauer has always hit well against almost everyone, he’s demolished right-handed pitchers to the tune of a .338 average and .942 OPS for his career.

Weaknesses

HR, injury. Mauer doesn’t hit a lot of homers. Some may draft him hoping that good health will lead to another 20-homer campaign, but I’ll cap his single-season total at about 12-14. As for the injuries? Those will be a concern for the rest of his career.

ADP Report (81.8)

I wouldn’t go much higher than this for Mauer. He has elite potential, ranking ninth overall in 2009, but it’s unlikely he ever approaches those numbers again. His 2010 line is what we should project for 2012, and that was good enough for 85th. No matter where you pick Mauer, though, you better have a good backup plan. It might even be a good idea to draft someone like J.P. Arencibia to hedge your bet.

Players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Check back tomorrow for players 21 through 40 as we count down the top 100.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

• Keepers 1-20
• Keepers 21-40
• Keepers 61-80
• Keepers 81-100

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

Rank	Player	Age	Position	Professor's Note
41	Eric Hosmer	22	1B	Looks a lot like the next Joey Votto
42	Alex Rodriguez	36	3B	Hasn't topped 138 games played in last four years
43	Jon Lester	28	SP	Elite K, ERA, W potential with a pedestrian WHIP
44	Matt Cain	27	SP	Great ERA/WHIP every year but K/9 and W totals aren't ace-like
45	David Price	26	SP	Similar to Lester with lower WHIP but fewer W
46	Dan Uggla	32	2B	Second half surge renewed faith in Uggla's all-around game
47	Joe Mauer	28	C	Just 12 HR in last two years but move to 1B is likely coming
48	Desmond Jennings	25	OF	Looks like the next Carl Crawford with better plate discipline
49	Rickie Weeks	29	2B	Freak injury derailed a second straight stellar season; have faith
50	Asdrubal Cabrera	26	SS	Can the power carry over? Even if not he's still a well-rounded, young SS
51	Shin-Soo Choo	29	OF	Real rough year for Choo but I think he's the guy from '09 and '10
52	Victor Martinez	33	C	Can you show me a more consistent C? Now a DH, age is no concern
53	Madison Bumgarner	22	SP	Major steps forward in '11; next year he becomes a near-ace
54	Mat Latos	24	SP	Low W potential but the rest is elite; '11 struggles were a fluke
55	Ben Zobrist	30	1B/2B/OF	Fantasy's preeminent utility guy does it all
56	Ricky Romero	27	SP	Low 3.00s ERA in AL East is something to behold
57	Michael Young	35	1B/2B/3B	Power dropped but he's the only consistency in heart of Rangers' lineup
58	Brett Lawrie	22	3B	Always worth taking a chance on a guy with his power/speed combo
59	Tommy Hanson	25	SP	Tendency toward breaking pitches worries me
60	Paul Konerko	36	1B	Getting old but back-to-back .900+ OPS years show he's not done yet

Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA — The Mariners had as many wins after the break as the Indians had hits against Santana. The Ack-Attack went 3-for-5 and is now slugging .512 on the season.

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA — Ichiro stole two bases, went 4-for-5 and reminded us all of the player he used to be. It was his first four-hit game since April 19 and just his second three-plus hit game over that same span.

Phil Hughes, SP, NYY — Hughes allowed 10 runners in his six innings of work. A positive? It was just the second time in his seven starts where he walked fewer than two walks. A negative? His ERA is lower, but it’s still 8.24. Another negative? He’s now 1-3 on the season. Another negative? He couldn’t stop a team that couldn’t get themselves started.

Alejandro De Aza, OF, CHW — With a homer in his first at-bat since his callup, De Aza has already given White Sox fans more to cheer about than Alex Rios has all season.

John Danks, SP, CHW — John was dank against Detroit, striking out 10 batters, his first 10-K game since May 9, 2009. Remember that awful start Danks had when he was 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA through the end of May? In June and July he’s gone 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA and an even lower WHIP in 36 2/3 innings. Now that’s dank.

Carlos Beltran, OF, SF — From Citi Field to the City by the Bay.

Javier Vazquez, SP, FLA — Vazquez rebounded from his last awful start to shut down the Nats over seven innings. No word on his pitch velocities yet. Apparently Brooks Baseball needs time to process the data. Quit holding me up!

Ricky Romero, SP, TOR — Romero had as many quality starts in his last three games as Cleveland had hits yesterday (that’s going to be my analogy for the number zero (or is it a simile?)). His ERA is down to 3.09 on the season, which would be infinitely better if he never played the Red Sox.

Lucas Duda, OF, NYM — Duda belted a blast as Mets fans boasted, “Beltran who?” We had a Lucas Duda fantasy projection at the start of the season, but it never really came to fruition because Beltran stayed healthy. George also looked at what a Beltran trade would mean for Dudettes everywhere. And that’s now two straight days I’ve used the word fruition.

Daniel Murphy, 1B, NYM — Murphy is groovin’ with another multi-hit game. He now has five in his last six games, and his four hits last night were four more than the Indians had all game!

Jason Bay, OF, NYM — Duda should have been playing in Bay’s place. Bay went 0-for-5 and now has just 12 extra base hits in 238 at-bats. I’m not kidding.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS — Ellsbury homered, stole a base and raised his average to .413 in 92 July at-bats. Is he a first round draft pick next year? He’s everything Carl Crawford was supposed to be and Crawford was a first-rounder.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC — Hosmer is officially the first Royals prospect to live up to expectations since George Brett. That’s probably an exaggeration, but Hosmer is still raking. Over the last eight games he’s raised his average from .260 to .287 and would certainly have gotten a hit against Santana.

Joe Mauer, C/1B, MIN — Mauer homered for the first time this year! Remember when he hit 28 homers two years ago? Ha. Funny.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL — Weeks made a mad dash to first to beat out an infield single. He ran hard straight through the base, but his ankle made a right turn toward the dugout. It was gruesome and he’s going to be done for awhile.

Zack Greinke, SP, MIL — Greinke hasn’t been what the Brew Crew thought he’d be, but after striking out nine without allowing an earned run over 6 1/3 innings last night he’s now had four straight solid starts and has lowered his ERA from 5.66 to 4.50 in the process.

Justin Upton, OF, ARI — The littler Upton hit the biggest homer either brother has ever hit. And then he hit another. Actually, the longer one was his second of the game, but either way he has some massive power. I wish Prince Fielder had picked him to do the Derby, but I secretly think he picked those guys to make himself look better…except now I’ve told everyone so the secret’s out.

Hideki Matsui, OF, OAK — Godzilla is setting Oakland on fire! He went 3-for-5 with a homer and five RBI last night and is now batting .331 in July with three homers, 21 RBI and one terrified island nation.

James Shields, SP, TB — Rays fans shielded their eyes as Complete Game James let up 10 earned runs in just four innings. His ERA jumped half a point to 3.03.

Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD — Kuroda allowed just one earned run over six innings but got the loss… again. He’s 6-13 on the year despite a stellar 3.11 ERA. Somewhere, Doug Fister is crying.

Once again, catcher is a veritable wasteland. Only one player, our top-ranked catcher at the mid-point, is in Yahoo!’s top 100 and just four even crack the top 200. Joe Mauer has played just 30 games and hasn’t hit a home run yet. Matt Wieters has been a huge disappointment once again but (somehow) has been the sixth-ranked catcher. Let’s just say I’m glad I’m only ranking 20 catchers.

Here’s how the catcher position should be ranked with all the emphasis placed on expected second half performance.

1. Brian McCann, ATL | 36 R, .310, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB

McCann is batting .300 for the first time since 2008 and is on pace for 26 homers, which would be a new career high. He’s ranked 67th on the season, leads all catchers in home runs and is tied for the lead in RBI. His .310 average ranks third at the position and is in the midst of what might be his best offensive season to date. After a disappointing 2010, McCann is back.

2. Victor Martinez, DET | 37 R, .316, 6 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB

Martinez ranks second in batting average among catchers and is the only other backstop sniffing the top 100 (117 in Yahoo!’s game). The six homers he’s hit on the season are disappointing to say the least, but no other facet of his game has faded and he’ll get a ton of at-bats the rest of the way by virtue of being Detroit’s primary DH. Martinez’s power outage has happened before — remember his two homers in 73 games 2008? — but I think he’s due for a moderate bounce back. If I had to guess I’d say he’ll hit more than six home runs in the second half.

3. Joe Mauer, MIN | 12 R, .243, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

Mauer is here on reputation alone. His two biggest strengths are his ability hit for average and score runs, the latter of which is something he’s done at an elite rate relative to his position. I was tempted to put Mauer ahead of Martinez, but what does Mauer do that Martinez hasn’t been doing?

4. Miguel Montero, ARI | 40 R, .272, 10 HR, 45 AVG, 1 SB

Last year Montero averaged 0.106 homers per game. This year he’s averaging 0.123 homers per game, which is basically the same rate as the 2009 version of Montero (0.125). His ISOs are almost all the same as are his run and RBI totals. The take home message here is that Montero is consistent, and consistently good at that.

5. Carlos Santana, CLE | 41 R, .231, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 3 SB

Santana batted just .198 in April but has batted over .260 in two of the last three months. He’s already had two five-home months and would be on pace for the same total i July if not for this week of rest for the All-Star Game. He might have the most raw power of any catcher and has a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio (68-to-62), something I always look for in young players.

6. Alex Avila, DET | 30 R, .286, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 3 SB

Just because we didn’t expect Avila to be this good doesn’t mean he won’t continue to be this good. I wrote a review of the catcher position on May 16 and what I said about Avila then applies to Avila now. Read it.

7. Mike Napoli, TEX | 28 R, .232, 12 HR, 33 RBI, 1 SB

Napoli stared the season strong with 10 homers in the season’s first two months, but then he missed a few weeks in June before coming back on the Fourth of July and smacking two homers and collecting six hits in six July games. Bottom line: Napoli is a .250 hitter who should average about five homers a month with solid RBI totals. He doesn’t have elite potential, but is up there with Santana in terms of power.

8. Matt Wieters, BAL | 31 R, .264, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB

Wieters hit four homers with 16 RBI in 22 April games but has just four homers and 18 RBI in 56 game since. His batting average is slightly above average for the position but nothing to write home about, and his best skill — throwing out would-be base stealers – doesn’t even help fantasy owners. It’s at this point in the rankings where the crop starts inducing yawns.

9. Yadier Molina, STL | 28 R, .282, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 1 SB

Molina is the 12th-ranked catcher and just the 333rd-ranked player overall at the halfway point this year. Like I said before, no one in this group is going to “wow” you, but some have their strengths. Molina’s strength is batting average. The rest is “blah” at best.

10. Miguel Olivo, SEA | 34 R, .223, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB

Olivo struck out 26 times with just one walk in June, but he also homered eight times with 19 RBI. He’s on your roster to hit homers, and he’s been doing that of late.

11. Wilson Ramos, WAS | 28 R, .251, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 0 SB

Ramos has been a nice surprise in Washington. While he’s not a great offensive player, he has shown the ability to get very hot for stretches, batting .358 in April and .346 thus far in July. Just make sure you bench him when he’s not hitting like Mauer.

12. J.P. Arencibia, TOR | 26 R, .222, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 0 SB

Arencibia had exactly four homers in April, May and June, but he’s batting well under .200 since June 1. Again, like everyone else, serious deficits somewhere that are kinda-sorta compensated for by mediocre performance elsewhere.

13. Jorge Posada, NYY | 20 R, .230, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB

Posada had a great June, batting .382 in 22 games that month, but so far in July he’s parlayed that into a disappointing 3-for-22 July (.136). He still has the same power he’s had in recent years (which isn’t a ton but still solid), but the real problem is his career-low line-drive rate fueling that .230 average.

14. John Buck, FLA | 29 R, .220, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB

Just another 18-20 homer, low-.200s hitter. Next please.

15. Rod Barajas, LAD | 15 R, .220, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB

Barajas missed a little time due to injury, but it’s the same old story.

16. Ramon Hernandez, CIN | 21 R, .322, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB

Does it seem like everyone on this list has between eight and 12 homers? Hernandez has a stellar .322 average, but his downfall is his lack of playing time as Ryan Hanigan steals a lot of at-bats.

17. Chris Iannetta, COL | 30 R, .214, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 3 SB

Iannetta batted .272 in May but hasn’t topped .182 in any other month. He has consistently hit three or four homers per month and I’m still a sucker for his potential, but at this point that’s probably a stupid move by me. Even though I’d take a flier on him, realistically he should be ranked down here.

18. Geovany Soto, CHC | 25 R, .228, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 0 SB

I seriously thought Soto was going to rebound this year. Nope. Aside from Barajas, Soto has the worst stats of anyone on this list. He had five homers in July but literally every other stat in ever other month is God-awful. If you have no one worth starting, Soto is worth the risk.

19. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL | 28 R, .280, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 0 SB

Lucroy is the seventh-ranked catcher and 276th-ranked player overall, but almost all of that is fueled by a ridiculous May in which he hit five homers with a crazy 20 RBI. He’s done as close to nothing in any other month as a player with a starting job can do, so don’t buy Lucroy in the second half.

20. Russell Martin, NYY | 26 R, .220, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 7 SB

Martin batted .292 with six homers and 19 RBI in April. He’s batted .184 with four homers and 17 RBI in May, June and July combined. ‘Nuff said.

Yikes…I’m glad that’s over.

There’s plenty to analyze here so feel free to leave your reactions in the comments section. And don’t forget to subscribe to our posts using your favorite feed reader, follow us on Twitter@BaseballProf and get our posts straight to your inbox!

The reason? It can be difficult and/or wordy to explain the fantasy relevance of box scores and stats. Showing nice, simple screen captures of what’s going on with a few quick notes is a lot shorter for me and a lot more convenient for you. At the risk of beating a dead horse, that’s what Charlie Sheen would call “bi-winning.”

As my first project I decided to look at the current top 10 players at each position as we move through the season’s seventh week. Today we look at possibly the most difficult position to forecast: catchers.

Note: The rankings and % Owned for each player are courtesy of Yahoo!

According to Yahoo!’s preseason rankings, there were five catchers ranked inside the top 75 overall: Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Buster Posey and Carlos Santana. Because of injury (are we surprised?) we don’t see Mauer in this early-season top-10 list. The other four are mixed in but aren’t doing as well as we’d expect.

In fact, no catcher is really doing that well overall as none of them rank higher than Russell Martin at 117 overall. Martinez is without doubt the best catcher thus far in the season but his cumulative totals are hurt by the two weeks he missed in late April and early May with a groin injury. He’s firing on all cylinders now that he’s back. Over the last two weeks he’s batted .415 (17-for-41) with nine runs, two homers, 14 RBI and a 1.172 OPS, good for 11th best in fantasy over that span.

But Martinez’s success isn’t a surprise. The real surprise is something I touched on about 13 seconds ago: the resurgence of Martin. He’s come back down to earth quite rapidly over the last few weeks, registering just one homer and two RBI in his last 10 games while batting .156 (5-for-32) during that time. Still, his seven homers are the most he’s had in a full season since 2008 and he’s actually on pace for 28 homers and 77 runs. I don’t think he’ll reach either of those totals, probably falling well short of the 28 homers and just short of the 77 runs, but overall that still makes him a legit top-10 catcher. From this day on I’d only take Martinez, Santana, McCann, the struggling Posey and the injured Mauer over Martin.

If anyone in your league is skeptical of Santana’s slow start, now might be your last chance to buy. His average sits at just .233 despite batting .314 (11-for-35) over the last two weeks and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is phenomenal. The power numbers and RBI production will come.

Matt Wieters is starting to get hot again, compiling a seven-game hit streak, but once again there is very little pop in his bat. He has just one extra base hit during that span and isn’t scoring enough runs or tallying enough RBI to be worth pursuing.

What about Alex Avila? I’m very high on Avila this season, but in the interest of full disclosure I did drop him a couple days ago in our Baseball Professor league, however that was more an issue of roster space since I’m blessed enough to own his superior Tiger counterpart, Senor Martinez. I won’t sit here and pretend Avila is some major prospect you need to know, but he’s just 24 years old, has a powerful 5-foot-11, 210-pound frame and has a subtle history of home run power. He hit 12 homers in 93 games at Triple-A in 2009 and went on to hit five more homers in just 29 games in the Majors that same season before slumping some in the power department last season (seven in 103 games with Detroit). This season he’s picked up right where he left off in ’09 hitting six so far. With the proper number of at-bats, which it appears he’ll get, we could see a near-20 homer season and possibly 60-plus RBI. Sadly, Avila bats mostly eighth in the Tigers lineup. Still, I’m a fan.

The last quick note will deal with the most frustrating non-injured catcher to own this season: Posey. Compared to last year, Posey’s strikeout rate has been up in 2011 due to a rough April in which he struck out 17 times and batted just .262. So far in May he’s batting .289 and has struck out just six times compared to nine walks, but he hasn’t gotten an extra base hit yet this month in 45 at-bats and has just three RBI. Generally I’m more concerned with a batter’s approach at the plate than I am with his result because a good approach will eventually yield good results, so be patient with Posey.

Laugh all you want, but right now there is very little information as to how serious this injury actually is, but with a .235 batting average, no home runs and only four RBI, it’s clear that Mauer hasn’t been himself.

If you own Mauer, there’s nothing you can do but wait…and wait…and wait. Luckily there are plenty of options on the waiver wire in mixed leagues at the position. Take a look at Carlos Ruiz (28% ESPN, 49% Yahoo), Nick Hundley (22% ESPN, 29% Yahoo), Alex Avila (7% ESPN, 23% Yahoo) and J.P. Arencibia (50% ESPN, 51% Yahoo). I like Avila the best for power and Ruiz for overall package.

Three Up

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL - 5-for-8, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI

Cliff Lee, SP, PHI - CG, 3 H, 0 ER, BB, 12 K

Carl Pavano, SP, MIN - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Three Down

Joe Nathan/Matt Capps, RP, MIN - 1 1/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, HR, BB

Phil Hughes, SP, NYY - 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, HR, 0 BB, 2 K

Ian Desmond, SS, WAS - 0-for-4, 3 K

Notes:

• Can we stop already with Ricky Nolasco? It might just be that his second half in 2008 was a smoke screen and we need to stop waiting for that production to come back. Nolasco is a great K:BB ratio guy, but that can only get you so far when you let up more than one hit per inning every year. He is a rich man’s Jason Hammel.

• Ride the Jamey Carroll wave while you can because this hot streak is nothing more than that—a hot streak. While Carroll has 11 hits in his last 28 at-bats (.393), it’s mostly because of a ridiculously high line-drive rate despite swinging at 27.5 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (17% career rate). If you lost Rafael Furcal, Carroll is a decent fill-in, but I would rather have guys like Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Willie Bloomquist.

• I love Gio Gonzalez’s 0.75 ERA and 50-percent ground ball rate so far this season, but his 5.68 walk rate shows that he still isn’t making progress in his control. Hopefully Gonzalez can figure things out on that end soon because there’s  a very special pitcher waiting to come out. He has ace potential, but the walks need to be cut in half for that to happen.

Mauer is drafted so early because of position scarcity. Since catcher is viewed as a weak position and he is far and away the best backstop, owners justify spending a high pick on a player who finished last year with nine home runs, 75 RBI and one stolen base. I am usually a big proponent of position scarcity but not in Mauer’s case.

One reason is that catcher is as deep as it’s been in a long time. In addition to Mauer there are several top flight catchers such as Victor Martinez, Brian McCann and Buster Posey who offer good batting averages and have more power than Mauer. Also players like Carlos Santana (ADP 90), Geovany Soto (136.2), Miguel Montero (160.7) and Matt Wieters (170.1) offer great value in the middle rounds. They won’t hurt you in batting average and they too have more power than Mauer. Mike Napoli is going even later than all of them and he nearly tripled Mauer’s home run total last year. Keep in mind how scarce power has become in fantasy baseball.

If I were to rank every position on how important it is to get the best player at the position, catcher would definitely be last. Not because I think catcher is the deepest position but because it is the least important. Let me explain.

Because catcher is the most demanding position on the field, catchers get more rest than any other position player. As a result, they get significantly fewer at-bats than players at other positions.

Last year, Mauer led all catchers with 510 at-bats. The next position with the lowest number of at-bats for the position leader was first base with 609. That’s almost 100 more at-bats than Mauer! With catchers getting so many fewer at-bats, they won’t have as much of an impact, which is why catcher is the least important position. The low at-bat total is the reason why Mauer’s biggest strength, batting average, doesn’t nearly have as much impact as the batting average of someone like Ichiro, who will hit over .300 over the course of 650 at-bats.

The only way Mauer can justify his high ADP is if he hits close to 20 home runs or steals double-digit bases. However, both are unlikely to happen. The 28 home runs he hit in 2009 will never be repeated because his HR/FB ratio was an astronomical 20.4. To put that in perspective, Mauer’s HR/FB ratio was 6.7 last year and 6.5 in 2008. As for the stolen bases, Mauer hasn’t reach double digits since 2005 and he has a combined six steals over the past three years.

When the third round rolls along do yourself a favor and bypass Mauer’s name knowing that there will be plenty of good catchers available later in the draft. Instead, draft top talent at thinner positions such as Jose Reyes (36.8) or Dustin Pedroia (28.9).

Better yet, draft someone like Matt Kemp or Justin Upton. They are far more likely to have a greater impact in all five categories than Mauer.

(Actually, the team of three here at Baseball Professor completed a mock draft with Fox Sports about a month ago, but we’re not supposed to talk about it until the magazine is published. Shhhhh!)

The following is my running commentary as the draft unfolded. It’s a 12-team snake draft with MI and CI spots as well as five outfielders. All-in-all, 25 rounds and I have the sixth overall pick. Let’s see what happens.

Round 1, Pick 6 – Troy Tulowitzki

Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun were already off the board (in that order), so I decided to go with Tulowitzki. The guy has massive power at a power-scarce position and is only entering his prime years. After him and Ramirez there’s not another shortstop that I feel comfortable with, and now I don’t have to sit back and pray Alexei Ramirez, Stephen Drew or Ian Desmond pan out for me.

Round 2, Pick 19 – David Wright

Sheer joy. How the heck did Wright fall to 19th overall? Hey, I have no clue, but I think he just might be the best third baseman in the game even though my Baseball Professor brethren like Longoria. Either way, Wright is a major steal here.

Round 3, Pick 30 – Joe Mauer

I let the clock dwindle down to six seconds before making this pick because I did not want to take Mauer. In the end it was between him, Jon Lester and Justin Upton, but I really didn’t want to take a starting pitcher this early. I may regret not jumping on Upton, especially in a five outfielder league, but we’ll see. I do like having the three scarecest positions covered already, though.

Round 4, Pick 43 – Ian Kinsler

Again, I passed on a pitcher (Zack Greinke this time) and an outfielder (Jayson Werth, et. al.) to shore up my middle infield. The fact that I actually need a MI really pushed me in this direction, and Kinsler is as talented as any player at the position when he’s healthy. I’m planning on sitting back and waiting on Danny Espinosa for my MI spot.

Round 5, Pick 54 – Hunter Pence

No choice here. Had to get an outfielder. Pence was the best of the bunch remaining since I didn’t want someone with any real weaknesses. I considered Jacoby Ellsbury for about two and a half seconds, but I don’t like his power potential this season and I already have a lot of stolen bases from Tulowitzki, Wright and Kinsler.

Round 6, Pick 67 – Jay Bruce

Still needed to shore up my outfield seeing as I still needed to draft four more starters there. This pick came down to Bruce and Mike Stanton as I really wanted to get someone with some pop. I figured with Mauer’s batting average at catcher I could afford taking a hit in that department, and Bruce is more proven than Stanton.

Round 7, Pick 78 – Josh Johnson

With two middle infielders, a third baseman and two outfielders already drafted, it was time for me to get some pitching. For this pick I was deciding between Johnson and Matt Cain, but I have a long track record of being very skeptical about Cain. For any Giants fans reading this, feel free to yell at me in the comments section. I don’t care anymore. I was worried about Johnson last season because of his recent surgery and all the innings he threw in 2009, but apparently Tommy John surgery makes you indestructible these days. I’m rapidly becoming a big fan of Florida’s bionic man.

Round 8, Pick 91 – Francisco Liriano

Uh oh. First base is starting to look pretty putrid. Billy Butler, Aubrey Huff and Adam LaRoche are the three best players available at first base if you go by ESPN’s rankings, so instead of wasting my pick at that position I decided to get another bionic ace.

Round 9, Pick 102 – Colby Rasmus

My mind went in about 18 different directions while trying to make this pick. On the one hand, I could have gone with Casey McGehee, who I like, but I didn’t have a need at third base even though I do need a CI in this league. Ben Zobrist was available, and I love the dual eligibility, but in the end I decided to go with Rasmus. There’s a lot of potential in this pick. It could also be one of my worst.

Round 10, Pick 115 – Aaron Hill

I abandoned my Espinosa plan at the last minute because I didn’t like any of the other options at this pick. I’m planning on getting Carlos Pena to be my everyday first baseman (something I am wholly less than thrilled about) and that means I need some guys with solid averages. Yes, I’m well aware of how bad Hill was last season, but I also think he’s a very good bet for .280-plus this season.

Round 11, Pick 126 – Brett Anderson

Still need a first baseman! And a couple outfielders! But the last thing I want is to have poor starting pitching depth. I really like Anderson, and this pick came down to him, John Danks or someone like Colby Lewis. Give me Anderson every time.

Round 12, Pick 139 – Nick Markakis

Markakis is nothing spectacular, but the Baltimore offense is much improved and he can still give me a solid average and maybe even close to 100 RBI. I’ll take that out of my fourth outfielder.

Round 13, Pick 150 – Carlos Lee

I have this odd, perpetual hate for Lee. He just seems so old and fat and worthless and I never want him on my team. Actually, maybe it’s not that odd. Still, he has been a .300 hitter for most of his career before really falling flat last year, and even though he batted just .246 he still had 89 RBI. Pena was the other option I considered (and my initial plan at the position), but he’ll definitely hit for a low average. I’d rather the guy who might not.

Round 14, Pick 163 – Ryan Dempster

I only need a CI, a fifth outfielder and a utility guy to fill out my lineup, so it’s time to get the rest of my rotation. ESPN suggested I select Brandon Morrow or Jhoulys Chacin over Dempster, and I’ll admit I considered it, but in the end I want the consistency…especially since I have already put so much pressure on the surgically repaired arms of Johnson and Liriano.

Round 15, Pick 174 – Vladimir Guerrero

I really, really hate selecting DHs for my utility role because it kills my roster flexibility, but in a deep league like this one I think it’s ok. Free agency is going to be so shallow and I’ll be starting so many batters everyday that it’s unlikely I’ll really have a good utility slot rotation like I prefer having. Guerrero can still hit for a .290-plus average and is in the heart of a solid lineup in a hitter’s ballpark. I expect good things again in 2011. I almost selected Josh Beckett, but I feel he’ll be there next round.

Round 16, Pick 187 – Josh Beckett

Ask and you shall receive! I get the hype around guys like Madison Bumgarner and Jeremy Hellickson, and at times I’ve joined in, but I think there’s a lot to be said for proven veterans who stumbled through unusually bad years. I expect a major rebound from Beckett, and I have no qualms with making him my fifth starting pitcher. Side note: need to start thinking about closers.

Round 17, Pick 198 – Brandon Lyon

Detective Craig Kimbrel (Kindergarten Cop joke, anyone?) came off the board just a pick before me, so I went with the ever-dependable Lyon. He doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, but all of my starters are good strikeout pitchers (aside from Anderson, I suppose). All I care about here are the saves.

Round 18, Pick 211 – Kevin Gregg

Gregg, Leo Nunez and David Aardsma are really the last of the proven closers remaining, and that’s using the word “proven” rather loosely. The ChiSox’s Chris Sale is a little ways down the list, and I think he’ll get the closing job in Chicago, so he’s the last closer I’ll be targeting. If I need a fourth closer or Sale doesn’t pan out, I’ll just scour free agency and the waiver wire all season…you know, if this was a real league.

Round 19, Pick 222 – James Loney

I don’t like taking low-upside guys like Loney, but I still needed a CI filler and Loney at least guarantees me a solid .280-plus average and a handful of everything else. I’ll take some risks with high-upside batters with my bench picks. At least right now that’s the plan. In the interest of full disclosure, I passed up on Garrett Jones and Justin Smoak with this pick.

Round 20, Pick 235 – Jose Tabata

I decided my team was set on power and could benefit from another speed-type, and then Tabata’s name popped up. It was between him and Nyjer Morgan, but Morgan will be lucky to get a homer and 30-plus RBI whereas Tabata will easily beat those totals. In the end, the power assurances offset the gap in speed between the two.

Round 21, Pick 246 – Chris Sale

It was getting dangerously close to the point where I might lose Sale, so I pulled the trigger and got the guy I wanted. If he does get the closer’s job, he could parlay his 100 MPH heat into a big season a la Neftali Feliz a year ago. Not a bad pick at 246 in my opinion. There are four picks left and I still need one pitcher and three bench players.

Round 22, Pick 259 – Jorge de la Rosa

I love the high-strikeout upside from a late-round pitcher and I think de la Rosa is a good value here. I passed on guys like A.J. Burnett, Rick Porcello, Scott Baker and Jake Westbrook.

Round 23, Pick 270 – Logan Morrison

Since I’m starting five outfielders, I thought having a sixth might be a good idea (I’m being sarcastic, of course…it’s an absolute necessity). Since I already tabbed Tabata as my speed guy, I don’t need Julio Borbon or anyone else like him, and Jonny Gomes is too replaceable in my book. Of all the guys remaining, Morrison has the highest ceiling.

Round 24, Pick 283 – Danny Espinosa

Even though I selected Hill way back in round 10, I still got the guy I wanted (Espinosa) and a lot later than I expected. Hey, the only thing better than landing the high-upside youngster for your roster is being able to stash him on your bench and not really needing him to succeed. Very happy about this pick.

Round 25, Pick 294 – Matt LaPorta

LaPorta qualifies as a post-hype sleeper, and even though I don’t expect anything from him, he’s a better pick than someone like Lyle Overbay. Plus, his dual eligibility (1B and OF) is very nice in a league with only three bench spots.

Final Roster

• C – Joe Mauer
• 1B – Carlos Lee
• 2B – Ian Kinsler
• 3B – David Wright
• SS – Troy Tulowitzki
• CI – James Loney
• MI – Aaron Hill
• OF – Hunter Pence
• OF – Jay Bruce
• OF – Colby Rasmus
• OF – Nick Markakis
• OF – Jose Tabata
• UT – Vladimir Guerrero
• SP – Josh Johnson
• SP – Francisco Liriano
• SP – Brett Anderson
• SP – Ryan Dempster
• SP – Josh Beckett
• SP – Jorge de la Rosa
• CL – Brandon Lyon
• CL – Kevin Gregg
• CL – Chris Sale
• BN – Logan Morrison
• BN – Danny Espinosa
• BN – Matt LaPorta

What I Liked

I absolutely loved nabbing Tulowitzki and Wright, but I think I could do this draft 20 more times and only see Wright fall to 19 in one or two of them. Still, that set me up well for the rest of the draft.

I was very happy with the pitching staff I assembled, selecting starters in rounds seven, eight, 11, 14, 16 and 22. Bunching starting pitching selections in the middle rounds is a favorite strategy of mine, and with so much starter depth this season you can afford to wait even longer. I didn’t get my first starter until the 78th overall pick and I think my rotation is pretty strong.

My bullpen (Lyon, Gregg, Sale) is far from solid, but I got three guys in a 12-team league that I think will be their teams’ primary closers, and that’s more than some people in a 12-team league can say. Not bad for someone who waited until the 17th round to get their first closer.

From a full-roster perspective, no one on this team is a major drain in the batting average category, which is pretty awesome, and a couple guys (Mauer and Wright in particular) give me potentially great averages at positions where few guys do.

And now it’s 12:17 am on Tuesday, February 15, which means Valentine’s Day is over. Sadly, I like that, too.

What I Wish I Could Redo

While my outfield is solid (Pence, Bruce, Rasmus, Markakis, Tabata), I would like to have someone better than Pence as my number one guy. I am starting to regret taking Mauer with my third pick (and at the time I knew I might) instead of Justin Upton or Shin-Soo Choo. Either guy would have given me a much stronger outfield, and it turns out that Carlos Santana was available as late as the ninth round when I selected Rasmus. That means I could have conceivably had Upton and Santana instead of Mauer and Rasmus. Which pair is better? It’s pretty close, but Upton and Santana could very easily win out in that battle.

Tier 1

Joe Mauer (MIN), Victor Martinez (DET), Buster Posey (SF), Brian McCann (ATL), Carlos Santana (CLE)

Mauer, Martinez and McCann have dominated the top tier for years, and now they’re joined by a couple up-and-coming youngsters. With the three vets, you know what you’re going to get. Mauer is a .300-plus hitter with 15-homer power, Martinez hits .300 with around 100 RBI and McCann hits in the .270s or so with 20-plus homers and 85-plus RBI. … Posey showed the world how great he can be, but I’m a bit skeptical of his strikeout rate. At 13.5 percent, it was the lowest rate he’s ever had, minor leagues included. … Because of injury, Santana is the greatest unknown of the group, but his potential is off the charts. He strikes out a decent amount (around 20% of the time) but he’s already a threat for 25 homers. He even swipes a few bases here and there, however, the most impressive thing about Santana is his plate discipline. In just 192 PA last season he walked 37 times to 29 strikeouts. That’s a walk every fifth at-bat!

Tier 2

Jorge Posada (NYY), Geovany Soto (CHC), Miguel Montero (ARI), Matt Wieters (BAL), Mike Napoli (TOR), Kurt Suzuki (OAK), Russell Martin (NYY), John Buck (FLA)

This tier is essentially everybody else who can be expected to be a full-time catcher and get at least 400-450 AB. They’re clearly not in the class of the first tier (although Posada, Soto and Wieters have the best chance at jumping up),  and most of these guys are fairly interchangeable. Posada is the full-time DH in New York, Soto rebounded nicely last season, Wieters still has potential and actually hit the 10th longest homer in the league last season. … Napoli is now in Toronto, Martin is now in New York and Buck was his ever-consistent self.

Tier 3

Ryan Doumit (PIT), Miguel Olivo (SEA), Carlos Ruiz (PHI), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), A.J. Pierzynski (CHW), Chris Iannetta (COL), Yadier Molina (STL), Nick Hundley (SD), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (BOS), John Jaso (TB), Yorvit Torrealba (TEX), Chris Snyder (PIT)

The guys in this tier are interchangeable, too, in the sense that it doesn’t matter which one you have. You’re screwed anyway. Everybody in this tier either splits time or puts up stats that make you think they were splitting time. Doumit and Ruiz are really the only ones that could be expected to enter the tier of serviceable guys above them. We ranked more catchers in our top 30 rankings (since this only takes us through 25), but do you really want to hear about Jason Castro and Francisco Cervelli? Oh, one last note. When we did the rankings it was assumed that Arencibia would be Toronto’s primary catcher. Now with Napoli in the mix that’s no longer likely. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

• Justin Duchscherer is meeting with doctors today to determine whether his newest hip injury will require surgery. If it does, he could miss the remainder of the season.
• Twins’ catcher Joe Mauer missed both Saturday and Sunday with a bruised heel, which could linger for weeks according to manager Ron Gardenhire.
• Royals’ third baseman Alex Gordon will have to wait a little longer before he gets his shot in the Majors as the Royals optioned him to Triple-A Omaha on Sunday.
• Indians’ closer Kerry Wood is getting ready to start a rehab assignment in Double-A.
• Blue Jays’ starter Shaun Marcum has pitched brilliantly so far in 2010, but he just picked up his first win yesterday.
• It’s been an awful to start the season for Yankees’ starter Javy Vazquez and Tim Britton of MLB.com suggests that the Yankees might skip his start this week so he can work on his mechanics.
• The Boston Red Sox have had one of the tougher schedules so far this season, but are expressing a lot of frustration after being swept by the AL’s worst team – the Baltimore Orioles.
• Braves’ shortstop Yunel Escobar is still battling injury and could land on the DL in the next couple of days. Also, Bobby Cox says he plans to use Nate McLouth at leadoff against right-handed pitchers.
• You can question the Mets’ outfielder Jeff Francoeur’s skills all you want, but the man is tough.
• Phillies’ starter Joe Blanton will make his 2010 debut against the Cardinals’ Jaime Garcia in what could be a NLCS game 3 preview.
• Rookie phemon Stephen Strasburg said goodbye to Double-A ball in mediocre fashion, but he expresses no concerns for his future.
• According to Marlon Byrd of the Chicago Cubs, Alfonso Soriano has been working hard and will have a huge year.
• Reds’ catcher Ryan Hanigan could earn some more playing time if he continues to hit.
• Pirates’ outfielder Andrew McCutchen is day-to-day with an ankle sprain.
• Rockies’ pitcher Jhoulys Chacin pitched marvelously in his season debut.
• Right-elbow soreness will keep Dodgers’ starting pitcher Vicente Padilla out for at least another month, but they expect Manny Ramirez to return shortly.