Tag Archives | Javier Vazquez

Mound Visit – SP Top 50, Week 4

By on May 1, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Youngsters are dominating the starting pitching rankings, and it all begins with Ubaldo Jimenez.

Just last week I wrote this about Jimenez:

I just don’t see anybody really knocking on the door of the top 10 right now. That first tier of starters is too good and has too much potential for anyone else to infiltrate their elite brotherhood – yes, not even one of the most hyped starters of 2010 who also just threw a no-hitter. Sometimes life isn’t fair.

It’s amazing what one or two starts can do for my confidence. Justin Verlander just isn’t doing it for me this season – although he will most definitely improve as his walk rate is higher than his career norms and his strand rate (LOB%) is a little low – and Jimenez compiled his third straight runless outing.

While we’re on the subject of LOB%, it is worth noting that Jimenez’s is an absurdly high 91.7 percent so that will certainly correct itself, but the Rockies’ ace still has worked an impressive 2.52 FIP so far.

But Jimenez isn’t the only young starter trending up. Jeff Niemann and Clay Buchholz both jumped at least five spots, and two of Niemann’s teammates, David Price and Matt Garza, continued their weekly ascent, moving up one spot apiece.

However, if youth isn’t this week’s main storyline, then injuries certainly are.

Cliff Lee made his first start coming back from injury/suspension this week, going seven strong innings allowing just three hits while striking out eight, and Ted Lilly worked has had two starts with mixed results.

On the other end of the spectrum are Jorge de la Rosa, Jair Jurrjens, and Brett Anderson who all have injury concerns of their own now. Anderson and de la Rosa find themselves on the DL, but Jurrjens is still expected to make his next start.

And sorry to all you NL only-ers. All of this weeks highlighted players are from the AL.

Surging

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

Back in week one, Liriano barely cracked the inaugural top 50 list, sliding in at number 46. In week two he moved up to 38, and week three saw him at 34. I’ve seen enough. The injuries are a lingering concern, but I can’t ignore Liriano’s potential anymore, especially if the likes of Cole Hamels and Javier Vazquez continue to disappoint… just to name two of this season’s early strugglers.

John Danks, Chicago White Sox

Danks is ranked fifth among all starting pitchers in my Yahoo! league right now, and he’s shut down some pretty potent offenses. The White Sox lefty has notched two wins, a 1.29 ERA and a 21-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three starts (21 innings) against Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Toronto who also rank first, seventh and 11th in runs scored, respectively. His next test? The New York Yankees.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

Hopefully I don’t need to remind you of the immense potential Buchholz has, but I’ll do it anyway – this is the kid who threw a no-hitter in just his second Major League start. While minor league success hasn’t eluded Buchholz, maturity has, and most believe it’s the reason behind his slow and staggered development. I’m ready to believe his 2.19 ERA and 8.0 K/9 are signs he’s finally reaching that potential.

Falling

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

Maybe it’s because I’m a Red Sox fan, but I’ve been holding out hope that Beckett would quickly turn things around. With 15 earned runs in his last two starts (10 innings), I had to drop him. His velocity is down (marginally), but it has also been on the decline each season since 2006. Still, he’s a proven strikeout pitcher with a solid defense and a pretty good offense backing him, so buy low if you can.

Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees

Big Apple, Part Two hasn’t gone as Yankees’ fans hoped. Vazquez’s control has be dreadful, evidenced by his 5.0 BB/9 so far, and his velocity is down from 91.1 mph last year to 88.9 mph this year. Interestingly, the average velocity of his curveball (74.1) and change-up (80.4) are both higher than last year. This means the gap between his fastball velocity and his off-speed velocity is narrowing, reducing the effectiveness of each. That’s not a recipe for success in the American League.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

No non-Yankee’s failures have made me happier than those of Jake Peavy, and I’m alright with admitting it. Why do I smile each time Peavy is taken yard or issues another walk? Maybe it’s because few people wanted to listen to reason when I explained that he’s never pitched well outside of Petco Park. Maybe it’s because I had the White Sox listed at 20th in my pre-season power rankings and I was absolutely assaulted by a few fans of the South Siders who claimed Peavy pushed their rotation over the top and into the echelon of St. Louis, Boston (although we aren’t seeing it), San Francisco, Seattle, and the Yankees. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s because I like being right.

On the mend

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics

On Wednesday, April 28, the USA Today reported that Brett Anderson will be shut down completely for two weeks with a strained flexor tendon. As you’ve noticed all season, I like Anderson’s top-20 potential, and he’ll likely miss four to five starts while on the DL. Anderson fell just two spots to 22 this week, but he’ll likely fall noticeably lower during his absence, especially if those around him pitch well.

Down on the farm

Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles

Tillman missed out on the Orioles’ Opening Day rotation, but it wasn’t for lack of talent. That talent was on full display Wednesday as Tillman threw a no-hitter for Triple-A Norfolk. Obviously this outing deserves mentioning, and it’s why Tillman is highlighted in this week’s column, but his 2010 season hasn’t been all rainbows and sunshine. Entering Wednesday, the Orioles’ top prospect had compiled a 6.11 ERA in four previous starts. With the Big League club fading fast and their rotation in shambles, Tillman could get an earlier-than-expected call-up, but he’ll need to show he’s ready first.

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Mound Visit – SP Top 50, Week 2

By on April 13, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

Unlike David Ortiz-haters, I refuse to draw conclusions from the first week play.

Carl Pavano went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 10 K in 13 IP – He didn’t crack the top 50.

Javier Vazquez was rocked to the tune of 8 ER in 5.2 IP against Tampa Bay – He only fell one spot.

If these trends continue for another week, then we’ll start to see people moving around. Despite some stellar performances from players knocking on the door of the top 50, there were no major injuries to any of the guys ranked last week. For now, we see the same 50 names, but I anticipate some newcomers next week. Until then, here are the starting pitcher rankings for week two.

Surging

Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays

Of all the starters ranked in the 20s, Garza was just about the only one who didn’t implode in week one. I know I just said I don’t react too much to such a small sample size, but I love Garza’s potential and his two dominant starts were all I needed to see. Yes, they were both against a struggling and unproven Baltimore club, but he went eight innings in both outings and just looked great.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

Yeah, the Rays rotation could be really good this season. I mentioned Price a week or two ago in an article about 10 Guys You’ll Wish You Drafted, and after allowing just three runs in 7.2 IP against the Bronx Bombers, I’m willing to push him up the list. Don’t forget how much buzz surrounded his big league promotion a few years back.

Jorge de la Rosa, Colorado Rockies

De la Rosa made the biggest move of the week, jumping 12 spots to 35. Concerns over a high WHIP were the only thing preventing his ascent, and he was able to follow up last year’s All-Star caliber second half with a great first start. How great? Try one hit and one walk over seven innings. Sure, it was against San Diego, but did anyone see the Padres put up 17 runs last night? Plus, de la Rosa gets the pleasure of facing them several times throughout the season.

Falling

Johan Santana, New York Mets

Perhaps I’m overreacting to two lackluster starts, but Santana’s velocity is noticeably lower. Through the first week, his average fastball is just 89.7 mph and his strikeout numbers are down as a result. This marks the fourth straight season his velocity has dropped and his xFIP has risen in each of those seasons. Translation: decrease in velocity equals decrease in effectiveness. Santana is on the verge of falling outside the top 20, and unless the velocity increases over the next week or he has a Cy Young-caliber start, Brett Anderson or Tommy Hanson might just overtake him.

Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves

I’m not Jurrjens’ biggest supporter, and allowing eight runs in 3.2 innings to the Padres doesn’t help his case. Jurrjens had a good first start against the Cubs, but he only fell two spots so there’s no need to call the demotion unfair. Had Tim Lincecum allowed eight runs to the Padres, I guarantee he wouldn’t be sitting at the top of these rankings.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

Peavy doesn’t have an arrow next to his name, but in two starts he still hasn’t flashed the potential he has. He’s allowed five walks and struck out just seven batters with an ERA of 8.44. Like with Jurrjens, his drop was just two spots, but I wasn’t too high on him anyway. That’s enough to land him in the “Falling” portion of the rankings.

On the mend

Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Remember when Webb said he hoped to be ready for Opening Day? Try June 1. Webb resumed his throwing program this past Monday (4/12) and is expected to continue it today. He only fell five spots, down to 41, but I’m anticipating he lands at number 50 next week.

Down on the farm

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Uber-phenom Stephen Strasburg made his first professional start for Double-A Harrisburg and I’d call it a success – 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K, and 1 RBI double (his first hit since high school). There’s still no absolute timetable for Strasburg’s Nationals’ debut, but you’d have to think it would be pretty soon. My guess? Some disagree with me, but I say June 1 at the latest.

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Deviation From Career Norms: Starting Pitcher

By on January 27, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

By: Chris Campanelli (Email)

Today I will be concluding this series by taking an in-depth look at starting pitchers.  Pitchers are a lot more complex than hitters in that they are far less consistent.  Despite this fact, there are certain pitchers who produce similar stat lines year in and year out.  However, the puzzle that is drafting starting pitching gets even more complicated when these usually consistent pitchers deviate from their career norms.  In the paragraphs below I will be identifying some of these pitchers who “threw a curveball” last season and produced stat lines out of the ordinary.  Then I will determine what we can reasonably expect from them this year.

Javier Vazquez

Last year Vazquez was a fantasy ace.  He won 15 games with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, striking out 238 batters.  Although we anticipated a good year moving from the AL to the NL, nobody could have expected a Cy Young caliber year.

In Vazquez’s previous season in the NL (2005 with Arizona), he finished with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.25.  Also, in Vazquez’s previous six seasons in the NL before his one year stint with the Yankees, he never had an ERA lower than 3.24.  Not only was Vazquez a lot better last year than in any year of his career, he was also a lot better than any of his previous seasons in the NL.

So what made Vazquez so dominant last year?  For starters, his control was a lot better.  He walked only 44 batters last year, the lowest total of his career.  As a result, he also had the best K/BB ratio of his career with a K/9 of 9.77, the highest of his career.  His high propensity for striking out batters combined with his lowest-ever HR rate (0.82 HR/9) led to Vazquez having the highest percentage of runners left on base in his career.

But the question remains, how will Vazquez fare in his second stint with the Yankees?  Because Vazquez let up a career-low 20 HR last year, I think it is reasonable to assume that he improved his command in that he must have thrown more pitches on the corners and fewer pitches down the middle of plate.  Improved command, coupled with his improved control (fewer walks) bodes well for Vazquez in 2010.

He should drastically outperform his numbers with New York in 2004 when he posted a 4.91 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP with only 150 strikeouts, however the move to the AL East combined with the hitter friendly confines of Yankee stadium should prevent Vazquez from matching last year’s totals.  I expect him to let up about 25 HR with an ERA around 3.65 and a WHIP hovering just below 1.20.  He should eclipse 200 strikeouts once again and has a good chance to build upon his win total.

Not a fantasy ace, but a good number three starter.

Matt Cain

Matt Cain took a huge step forward in his fourth full year in the big leagues.  He finished the year with 14 wins, a 2.89 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts.  In his previous three years, Cain averaged 9 wins, a 3.85 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and 176 strikeouts.

Unfortunately for Cain, last year seems unsustainable due to the high degree of luck he had.  In 2009, Cain had an extremely low BABIP of .268.  This was the lowest of his career and a lot lower than the MLB average of .303.  A low BABIP such as Cain’s indicates that a lot more batted balls found fielders’ gloves than should have.

Cain also let up the most HR of his career last year with 22.  His HR/9 ratio of 0.91 was also the highest of his career.

Another lucky stat was Cain’s LOB% (Left on-Base Percentage).  His LOB% of 81.6% was the highest of his career, and the average LOB% for pitchers last year was 71.9%.  This shows that Cain stranded a lot more runners than the MLB average.

A possible explanation for a high LOB% would be that the pitcher strikes out a lot of batters, however this is not the case with Cain.  His K/9 of 7.07 was just above league average.  It’s also alarming that Cain’s K/9 rate has been dropping from year to year.

In all likelihood, Cain’s BABIP will increase next year and his LOB% will decrease.  This does not bode well for someone who is letting up more HR and striking out fewer batters.

Expect a regression for Cain next year with an ERA close to the mid 3.00s and a WHIP around 1.25.

Derek Lowe

From 2005 to 2008, Derek Lowe was the model of consistently for the Dodgers.  Over that time span he averaged 141 strikeouts with an ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.23.  Last year with the Braves, Lowe was brutal.  He finished the year with an ERA of 4.67, a WHIP of 1.52, and only 111 strikeouts.

After looking at Lowe’s 2009 more closely, I’m more inclined to believe that next year will be pretty much the same.

What made Lowe so successful in the past was his ability to induce the groundball and get out of those tough situations.  However, last year saw a huge dip in Lowe’s groundball percentage.  He only induced groundballs 56.3% of the time.  From 2005 to 2008, Lowe’s groundball percentage was never below 60%.

Another alarming stat last year was Lowe’s K/BB ratio of 1.76.  The year before it was 3.27, and as you might have guessed, Lowe walked more batters last year and struck out fewer.

Another factor going against Lowe is his age.  He’s 36 years old and is well past the age pitchers where start declining.

As a result of all these factors, I can no longer consider Lowe a useful fantasy pitcher.  Last year began a downward trend for him and it’s likely to continue this year.

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Javier Vazquez to New York… Again

By on December 26, 2009 | Comments { 2 }

Earlier this week, the Yankees made a trade with the Braves sending Melky Cabrera and prospects Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino to Atlanta for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan. Of course, Vazquez already had a stint in the Bronx in 2004, and his performance was very average.

Now, the circumstances in 2004 were much different for Vazquez than they are now. He was expected to be the ace back then, and perhaps the pressures of playing in New York got to him as he posted a 14-10 record with a 4.91 ERA, and 150 strikeouts in 198 innings pitched. These numbers are all down from his 162 game average as calculated by Baseball Reference. This site has his averages at 13 wins with a 4.19 ERA, and 198 strikeouts in 213 innings pitched. This season, Vazquez arrives as the expected number four starter and is coming off a great 2009 season where he posted a career high in strikeouts and a career low ERA.

However, I do not believe Vazquez’s second stint in New York will be much better than his first, though if his numbers are around the same as in 2004, they will not be terrible for a number four starter. Obviously, Vazquez pitched in the old Yankee Stadium in 2004, but the new stadium has the same dimensions to right and left, so statistical comparisons remain viable.

In 16 Yankee Stadium starts in 2004, Vazquez posted a 6.74 ERA, allowing 17 home runs. Ten of those homers came against lefties and the short 314 foot right field wall. Last season overall, baseballs were flying out of the new stadium at a record pace so there is not much reason to expect a change in home runs allowed by Vazquez. He allowed 33 home runs overall in 2004, and has never allowed fewer than 20.

The table below illustrates Vazquez’s statistics with catchers that he has shared at least 700 plate appearances with, or the equivalent of just over one season of work:

Opponent's Stats When Vazquez Caught By:

NameGamesPlate AppBatting Avg.On-Base PercentageOPSStrikeout to Walk Ratio
Michael Barrett842290.253.296.7053.94
A.J. Pierzynski832205.252.310.7243.47
Jorge Posada28721.265.325.7812.54
Brian Schneider351022.243.289.6804.14
Chris Widger581482.275.337.7942.38

Vazquez worked mainly with Jorge Posada in 2004, and the tandem will be reunited this season. Upon investigation of the table, it is noticed that Vazquez’s second-highest career opponent’s batting average (.265) and on-base percentage (.325) came when working with Posada. Also, his second-lowest career strikeout to walk ratio (2.54) came with him.

This statistical analysis points to Vazquez having a very similar year to that of 2004, and I predict an ERA somewhere around 4.50 and around 200 innings and 200 strikeouts. Home runs will float around 30 once again. The bottom line is he will not repeat his 2009 season, yet his stats will be acceptable for a fourth starter, especially with that Yankee offense to help him out.

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