Since many leagues make you add your starters a day in advance, here are my thoughts on the pitching matchups for tomorrow, Wednesday, September 21.

Good Matchups

• Vance Worley, PHI (vs. WAS) – If I’ve said it once, I shouldn’t have to say it again. Start Worley at home (6-0, 2.01 ERA) and at night (9-0, 1.61 ERA). A home, night game versus Washington? Can he allow negative earned runs?
  
• James Shields, TB (@NYY) — Shields is ranked 17th on the season and has reached “start him against any opponent” status, but it’s worth noting that he has absolutely dominated the Yankees in three starts this season. His 1-2 record versus the Bombers doesn’t do his 1.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP any justice (22 2/3 innings), and his opponent, Phil Hughes, hasn’t pitched well against a good offense since August 13 (a 9-2 win against Tampa Bay).
• C.J. Wilson, TEX (@OAK) — Wilson has almost reached “start him against anyone” status, but even though he’s not quite there yet he has attainated “could turn in a gem on any given day” status, especially when facing an Oakland team that he’s posted a 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP against this season (35 IP). His road numbers this year (2.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .218 OBA) give me even more confidence.
• Michael Pineda, SEA (@ MIN) — The Twinkies are the perfect remedy for the struggling Pineda who hasn’t collected a win since beating Tampa Bay on July 30. That doesn’t mean the Mariners’ phenom has pitched poorly, though. In the six starts since that last W he has five quality starts and has rebounded quite nicely from a disastrous July and early-August. Minnesota is 2-14 this month and has scored just 55 runs in 16 games (3.45 runs per game). The one silver lining (for Minnesota, not Pineda) is that the Twins don’t strike out much at all.
• Wade Miley, ARI (vs. PIT) — The Pirates aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, but they’re exceptionally bad against LHP (.657 OPS, league average .722). Miley has been rather impressive as a starter this year, but he tends to walk a lot of batters. This isn’t a case-closed, great-outing-in-the-making for Miley, but he’s one of your better, low-quality options.
• Matt Garza, CHC (vs. MIL) – Garza has allowed more than three earned runs in just seven of his 29 starts this season, but two of them are against Milwaukee. Garza is great at home and Milwaukee has been scuffling offensively in September (23rd in runs scored), so I’m rolling the dice here.
• Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE (vs. CHW) — Look who’s strung together five straight quality starts! Jimenez’s walk rate is very high and his ERA versus the White Sox is just 4.08 this year, but his opponent, Mark Buehrle, has been incredibly bad of late. That could mean a win.
• Javier Vazquez, FLA (vs. ATL) — Vazquez is a monster! His ERA has gone down every single month and his ERA/WHIP combo sits at 2.35 and 0.93, respectively, in 80 1/3 innings after the All-Star Break. He’s allowed just one earned run in his last four starts (0.31 ERA in 29 innings), but amazingly none of his 30 starts this season have come against division opponent Atlanta.
• Bronson Arroyo, CIN (vs. HOU) —  We joke about how bad Houston’s offense is and like they say, most jokes are rooted in truth. In this case there’s a lot of truth. Houston’s offense ranks last in the league in runs in September. If you can’t start Arroyo against the Astros, who can you start him against?
• Randy Wolf, MIL (@CHC) — By almost any measure, the Cubs have a middle-of-the-road offense, even when they’re at home. Wolf has made three starts against the Cubbies this season and has compiled a nicely polished 1.37 ERA in the process. To give you even more confidence, September has been his best month of the season so far.
• Jaime Garcia, STL (vs. NYM) — Garcia put an end to another second-half slide with three nice starts in a row in September. The Mets 7-5 win on Sunday put an end to a streak of six straight games scoring two or fewer runs. Clearly they aren’t hitting, so now is the time to strike!
• Ryan Vogelsong, SF (@LAD) — Sometimes life ain’t fair. From August 19 to September 10, Vogelsong went 0-5 over five starts despite a sterling 3.37 ERA during that span. You see, the problem with San Franciso starters is they force you to gamble that the San Francisco offense will score enough runs to get them a win. Over those five starts the Giants scored a whopping four runs…total. Not four runs per game. Four runs total. As for Vogelsong’s matchup in particular, he’s allowed just three earned runs in 14 2/3 innings against the Dodgers this season (1.84 ERA).
• Dana Eveland, LAD (vs. SF) — Speaking of the Giants, guess who’s facing them. Eveland shut down San Fran on September 10, allowing just three hits and zero runs over seven innings. It’s odd to see me recommend two starters from one game, but low-scoring affairs between the Giants and Dodgers are all the rage these days. In only six of the 15 games between these teams this season has one team scored more than five runs and two of those games were way back in the year’s opening series.

Bad Matchups

• Wandy Rodriguez, HOU (@CIN) — His May and June were pretty much off the chart (by the way, where is this oft-referenced chart?), but he’s been a 4.00-ish ERA guy for the rest of the season. Still, an 11-10 record pitching for a 53-100 team is pretty impressive, but this isn’t a great matchup for Rodriguez. He has an ERA of 6.00 in two starts against a Reds team that has the league’s third-best OPS versus LHP this season. Complicating matters, his 1.52 WHIP during day games is ninth worst of 112 pitchers who have tossed at least 40 innings under the sun.
• Brandon McCarthy, OAK (vs. TEX) — McCarthy has been great at home (2.77 ERA) and in the second half (3.18 ERA), but Texas has pounded him this year (5.06 ERA in 21 2/3 IP).
• Max Scherzer, DET (@KC) — Scherzer has faced the Royals four times this season, allowing two earned runs in 12 2/3 innings in his first two starts and 11 earned runs in just eight innings in his last two starts. This downward trend against the Royals offense was punctuated by a 9-5 KO by KC on August 29. In that game Scherzer allowed homers to backup catcher Sam Perez and light-hitting shortstop Alcides Escobar. Now almost a month later, neither player has homered since and they’ve combined for four home runs in 641 at-bats this year. You call it bad luck. I call it bad skill.
• Phil Hughes, NYY (vs. TB) — Hughes’ walk rate ranks 114th of 182 pitchers who have thrown at least 70 innings, a rate which puts him right near the bottom third of the league. Tampa Bay’s 74 walks in September are first in the league and, for whatever reason, Hughes has a 7.83 ERA and .326 OBA at Yankee Stadium.
• Anthony Bass, SD (@COL) — Never send a relief pitcher to do a starting pitcher’s job…until that relief pitcher has turned in several solid performances as a starter. Then start him at will. Sadly, though, that doesn’t describe Bass.
• Kevin Slowey, MIN (vs. SEA) — It takes some skill, or lack thereof, for me to recommend you don’t start someone against the Mariners, but Slowey has been awful all year and his team can’t win games.
• Mark Buehrle, CHW (@CLE) — Cleveland is just 7-11 this month, but that’s more a reflection of a pitching staff that has allowed the second most runs in the league since September 1 and less of their offense that ranks 10th over that span. Buehrle has pitched well at home this year (2.85 ERA) but he’s allowed at least six earned runs in each of his last three starts and hasn’t fared well versus the Indians (7.11 ERA in 19 IP).
• Jeremy Hellickson, TB (@NYY) — Last week I called Hellickson’s start against the Red Sox a bad matchup because of his walk rate on the road and how lucky I feel he’s been this year, and then he goes and lets up just three hits and one earned run over 5 2/3 innings. Despite the fact that he was one out away from his sixth straight quality start, I’ll once again project a bad outing from the Rays’ rookie. He was roughed up for four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings at New York on August 13, and this start will be similar.
• Tommy Hunter, BAL (@BOS) — The Red Sox are just 3-5 over their last eight games, a stretch that’s been bookended by two 18-run offensive outbursts. In the six games in between, the team has averaged just 3.83 runs per game. We’ll probably know by the end of the second inning whether Hunter’s going to polish off a gem, but with the way he’s been pitching over the last two months (5.31 ERA in 57 2/3 IP) that’s an unlikely outcome.
• Chris Schwinden, NYM (@ STL) — Relievers usually don’t last long enough to pick up the win, so you only want to start them when their K potential is high and they’re facing a bad offense. St. Louis isn’t hitting particularly well of late, but they’re talented enough for me to pass here.

1. You’re in a head-to-head league and your team is in the playoffs.
2. You’re in a roto league and you’re still playing for the championship.
3. You’re in a keeper league and you’re out of contention.
4. You’re in a one-year league and you’re out of contention. Your September is quasi-meaningless.

We’ll have some nice tidbits for people in scenario three above (i.e. some early 2012 rankings for you to ponder), but right now it’s those guys in scenarios one and two that really need our help.

What follows below is a compilation of September performers I particularly like for the stretch run. All are readily available in all but the deepest of leagues, and each has what it takes to contribute that extra hit, run, homer or steal that could put you over the top.

Dexter Fowler, OF, COL – I don’t really like anything about Fowler for the long haul, but when he’s getting on base, scoring runs and — gasp! — hitting homers like this, he’s worth plugging into anyone’s outfield. He’s 13-for-25 (.520) with four home runs, four RBI and nine runs scored in his last six games. Strikeouts have been a problem for his entire career, but right now he’s not really striking out. When the Ks pick back up, dump him.

Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, NYM – I touted Duda a lot in the preseason because I thought he was a sleeper 25-homer threat. Then Carlos Beltran stayed healthy, Duda never got consistent playing time, he played poorly when he was in the lineup and before we knew it he was in the minors. Now he’s back, Beltran is gone and Duda is raking to the tune of .313/.380/.522 over the last 30 days with six homers and 22 RBI. That’s good for 40th overall in the Yahoo! game. He also has a higher average against LHP so you don’t need to worry about benching him versus southpaws, but all nine of his home runs on the season have come against righties.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, ARI – Goldy Knocks is striking out (a lot) just  like we all expected. His .247 average is a little lucky, which is concerning for anyone with a .247 average, but his five homers in 30 games works out to a 27 home run per 162 game pace. It’s not a monster pace, but Goldschmidt can be useful down the stretch this year if you need that late-week home run in head-to-head leagues. It’s pretty much the role we saw from Pedro Alvarez last season. Let’s just hope Goldschmidt follows it up better than Alvarez did.

Ruben Tejada, 2B/SS, NYM – Let’s just start by admitting that if you don’t have a top five or eight shortstop, you’re pretty much screwed and left to picking up hot bats on free agency. If this describes you (or if you’re one of the guys who’s panicking now that Hanley Ramirez is out for the season), then go add Tejada. You might be surprised to know he has the fourth-highest slugging percentage among all shortstops with at least 80 at-bats over the last 30 days (.475). The guys he’s trailing (Troy Tulowitzki, J.J. Hardy, Derek Jeter) aren’t anything to scoff at either.

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, TOR – Like Duda, I expected positive returns from Encarnacion in 2011. It might have taken five months, but we’re finally getting something useful out of them. Encarnacion batted .313 in July then .307 in August and combined to hit 10 homers with 29 RBI in those two months. He even swiped two bags last night and had another one about a week ago to bring his season total to seven. His power is solid, and you won’t find a better contributor at third base available for free.

Nick Hundley, C, SD – You can’t expect to find a catcher who does it all at this point of the season. You’re lucky if you can find a catcher who kind of does one thing well without absolutely killing you everywhere else. That’s Hundley in a nutshell. He’s been on a tear over the last 30 days, batting .400 with a .754 slugging percentage, but he has just eigtht RBI over that span. Still, it makes him the fifth-best catcher since the start of August.

Javier Vazquez, SP, FLA – Vazquez has a 2.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 78 1/3 innings since the start of July, but he’s still just 50 percent owned. That’s probably a result of the many leagues that have undoubtedly folded since Vazquez turned things around, but if he’s somehow available in your league, he’s an ace-quality starter available for free. Also, you should probably find a new league.

Doug Fister, SP, DET – Fister has a bad reputation as a fantasy pitcher for two reasons: he didn’t rack up wins in Seattle and he doesn’t strike many people out. Well, now that he’s in Detroit he’s actually piling on the wins. As for the Ks? Go ahead and ask Cleveland whether Fister has strikeout stuff. After fanning 13 Indians in his last outing, Fister now has four wins in seven starts with the Tigers as well as a 2.64 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and a 7.31 K/9. He’s allowed just three earned runs in his last 29 2/3 innings over his last four starts (0.91 ERA).

Alfredo Aceves, RP, BOS – This is the first time I have officially endorsed a middle reliever in a non-holds league, but there’s good reason for it. Boston’s bullpen is a disaster right now before the eighth inning. That means anytime a pitcher goes six or fewer innings, someone needs to come in and get the ball to Daniel Bard in the eighth. Now that Josh Beckett is out and Erik Bedard is missing a turn in the rotation, Boston will be turning to some very unproven arms to start games, guys that probably won’t go very deep. This means Aceves becomes a vital link to the back of the Red Sox bullpen. We all figure that wins from relievers are pretty random, but somehow Aceves keeps piling them up. He’s now 23-3 in his career in 104 appearances, only nine of them starts. He also has a 2.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. If you have a free RP spot anywhere on your roster and you need wins, Aceves is a solid guy to start each and every day in hopes of adding a rogue W.

Bobby Parnell, RP, NYM – For a more conventional relief pitcher add, make sure you get Parnell if you need saves. He has six save chances since August 24, converting five, and is now the Mets’ full-time closer. He’s also just 22 percent owned.

Javier Vazquez, SP — Those who bought into a turnaround are being rewarded. Vazquez threw seven strong innings last night, giving him a 2.82 ERA with a 29 K/8 BB ratio in his last six starts (38 1/3 IP).

Josh Tomlin, SP — Let’s start with the obvious here. If you haven’t given up on Tomlin’s aberration of a season then it’s about time you do. In his last four starts he has a 5.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10 K/2 BB ratio in 25 innings. The control is still there, but he has become a pitcher who is just ineffective on the road. It was a nice ride, but it’s time to bail.

Dan Uggla, 2B — Uggla is the complete opposite as he is just white hot after a 3-for-4, 2-HR performance last night. He is now amidst a 23-game hitting streak, in which he’s batting a robust .352 with 10 home runs and 20 RBIs. I’ve been telling you to buy low this whole time and the window is all but closed at this point.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B — The trading of Brandon Allen marked the beginning of the Goldschmidt Era and he got his first major-league hit last night. It was a single so cool your jets. He is currently projected to finish the season 1-for-6 on his ESPN player page.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS — 3-for-5 with three runs, four RBIs and his 18th and 19th home runs of the season. Ho-hum.

Carl Crawford, OF — Hit his first home run since his DL stint and added a double, which makes up half of his extra base hits in that same time span. I wish I could tell you that this is where he turns it around. I really wish I could.

John Lackey, SP — If you look at K/BB ratio Lackey has been a stud since the end of June, posting a 34/4 mark over seven starts (41 2/3 IP). Unfortunately he is far too hittable for his (or our) own good (12.3 H/9).

Neil Walker, 2B/3B — Went 2-for-3 and now has multi-hit games in six of his last seven (.400 BA). He batted .292 in the final two months last season so I’d buy into this little streak and buy him for the stretch run.

Ryan Ludwick, OF — His debut didn’t go so well (0-for-3, K). Maybe next time kid.

Carlos Marmol, RP — Pitched a perfect inning with a strikeout for his second save in as many days. Looks like whatever ailed him before has passed.

Mike Stanton, OF — Is there anything better than watching Stanton hit home runs? Yes, watching him hit home runs for your fantasy team.

Leo Nunez, RP — My colleague Bryan Curley hates it when closers blow a save and then get the win so for his sanity I am awarding the win to the aforementioned Stanton for hitting a grand slam in the 10th inning. Just when you thought he couldn’t get any better!

Trevor Cahill, SP — 4 IP, 12 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. There’s nothing worse than when your pitcher goes up against the league’s worst offense and then puts up a stinker like that.

Dustin Ackley, 2B — Went 2-for-4 with a double and triple. A real cinderella story if you ask me after seeing what a black hole that lineup has been.

Blake Beavan, SP — Has a guaranteed spot in the rotation now that Erik Bedard and Doug Fister are gone. He won’t dazzle you with strikeouts, but he pitched to another quality start last night making him 5-for-5 on the season.

Brandon League, RP — 1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 K. Why do managers bring in their closers in non-closing situations?

Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA — The Mariners had as many wins after the break as the Indians had hits against Santana. The Ack-Attack went 3-for-5 and is now slugging .512 on the season.

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA — Ichiro stole two bases, went 4-for-5 and reminded us all of the player he used to be. It was his first four-hit game since April 19 and just his second three-plus hit game over that same span.

Phil Hughes, SP, NYY — Hughes allowed 10 runners in his six innings of work. A positive? It was just the second time in his seven starts where he walked fewer than two walks. A negative? His ERA is lower, but it’s still 8.24. Another negative? He’s now 1-3 on the season. Another negative? He couldn’t stop a team that couldn’t get themselves started.

Alejandro De Aza, OF, CHW — With a homer in his first at-bat since his callup, De Aza has already given White Sox fans more to cheer about than Alex Rios has all season.

John Danks, SP, CHW — John was dank against Detroit, striking out 10 batters, his first 10-K game since May 9, 2009. Remember that awful start Danks had when he was 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA through the end of May? In June and July he’s gone 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA and an even lower WHIP in 36 2/3 innings. Now that’s dank.

Carlos Beltran, OF, SF — From Citi Field to the City by the Bay.

Javier Vazquez, SP, FLA — Vazquez rebounded from his last awful start to shut down the Nats over seven innings. No word on his pitch velocities yet. Apparently Brooks Baseball needs time to process the data. Quit holding me up!

Ricky Romero, SP, TOR — Romero had as many quality starts in his last three games as Cleveland had hits yesterday (that’s going to be my analogy for the number zero (or is it a simile?)). His ERA is down to 3.09 on the season, which would be infinitely better if he never played the Red Sox.

Lucas Duda, OF, NYM — Duda belted a blast as Mets fans boasted, “Beltran who?” We had a Lucas Duda fantasy projection at the start of the season, but it never really came to fruition because Beltran stayed healthy. George also looked at what a Beltran trade would mean for Dudettes everywhere. And that’s now two straight days I’ve used the word fruition.

Daniel Murphy, 1B, NYM — Murphy is groovin’ with another multi-hit game. He now has five in his last six games, and his four hits last night were four more than the Indians had all game!

Jason Bay, OF, NYM — Duda should have been playing in Bay’s place. Bay went 0-for-5 and now has just 12 extra base hits in 238 at-bats. I’m not kidding.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS — Ellsbury homered, stole a base and raised his average to .413 in 92 July at-bats. Is he a first round draft pick next year? He’s everything Carl Crawford was supposed to be and Crawford was a first-rounder.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC — Hosmer is officially the first Royals prospect to live up to expectations since George Brett. That’s probably an exaggeration, but Hosmer is still raking. Over the last eight games he’s raised his average from .260 to .287 and would certainly have gotten a hit against Santana.

Joe Mauer, C/1B, MIN — Mauer homered for the first time this year! Remember when he hit 28 homers two years ago? Ha. Funny.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL — Weeks made a mad dash to first to beat out an infield single. He ran hard straight through the base, but his ankle made a right turn toward the dugout. It was gruesome and he’s going to be done for awhile.

Zack Greinke, SP, MIL — Greinke hasn’t been what the Brew Crew thought he’d be, but after striking out nine without allowing an earned run over 6 1/3 innings last night he’s now had four straight solid starts and has lowered his ERA from 5.66 to 4.50 in the process.

Justin Upton, OF, ARI — The littler Upton hit the biggest homer either brother has ever hit. And then he hit another. Actually, the longer one was his second of the game, but either way he has some massive power. I wish Prince Fielder had picked him to do the Derby, but I secretly think he picked those guys to make himself look better…except now I’ve told everyone so the secret’s out.

Hideki Matsui, OF, OAK — Godzilla is setting Oakland on fire! He went 3-for-5 with a homer and five RBI last night and is now batting .331 in July with three homers, 21 RBI and one terrified island nation.

James Shields, SP, TB — Rays fans shielded their eyes as Complete Game James let up 10 earned runs in just four innings. His ERA jumped half a point to 3.03.

Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD — Kuroda allowed just one earned run over six innings but got the loss… again. He’s 6-13 on the year despite a stellar 3.11 ERA. Somewhere, Doug Fister is crying.

Side note: If you saw my post yesterday explaining the secret behind Vazquez’s recent success, you know that separation in velocity between his fastball and change-up is crucial for Vazquez to pitch well. Last night his average fastball was just 89.5 mph and his average change-up was 80.0 mph. That 9.5-mph difference was his worst since his outing on May 9, 12 starts ago. No wonder he pitched so poorly.

Getting back on track, Vazquez’s awful start forced me turn to free agency to find someone to pitch today. Because of the depth of our league, there’s not much to go around, but the first name that caught my eye was Brian Duensing. He’s facing the Tigers today, but is that a good matchup for Duensing? How do the Tigers typically fare against left-handed pitchers? I know they have the right-handed Miguel Cabrera at the heart of their lineup as well as left-hander Brennan Boesch and switch-hitter Victor Martinez, but does all that make their offense good or bad versus lefties?

That’s what prompted this chart today. Using ESPN’s split stats I ranked each of the 30 major league teams based on their offense’s potency thus far versus left-handed pitchers. I couldn’t just rank the offenses by total runs scored because some teams have faced a lot of lefties (1,065 at-bats against for Boston) whereas others have faced relatively few (777 for Milwaukee). I considered runs per game, but ESPN counts a game where a right-hander starts but a left-hander comes on in relief as one game, so the total number of at-bats per game (and thus runs per game) was a little messed up.

To fix this, I invented my own stat: Run Rate.

Run Rate is simply the amount of a runs a team scores per 100 at-bats. Yes, it’s arbitrary. And yes, it’s a fair and effective way of ranking every team. I also invented HR Rate (probably the 235th version of HR Rate I know of), which is home runs hit per 100 at-bats. Here are the results for your viewing pleasure.

Detroit with the eighth-best offense versus left-handed pitchers? Sorry, Duensing. I think I’ll look for pitching help elsewhere.

OK, Kevin Brown was more to blame for that one.

Vazquez stumbled through 2010 to the tune of a 5.32 ERA but somehow eeked out a 10-10 record in the process. The Marlins took a chance on Vazquez this season, hoping that a move back to the National League would ultimately mean a return to form for a pitcher who has five 200-strikeout seasons to his credit.

Two months into 2011 and it looked like Vazquez’s career was nearing its end. A quick glance at his velocity chart (courtesy of Fangraphs) showed a pitcher who was slowly losing his strength after logging over 2,700 innings over 14 major league seasons.

And what happened, then? Well in Florida they say that Vazquez’s right arm grew three sizes that day. And then the true meaning of “fastball” came through, and Vazquez found the strength of 10 Vazquez’s, plus two!

Somehow at the beginning of June, Vazquez underwent a rapid metamorphosis that culminated in him reaching velocities we hadn’t seen since his brilliant 2009 campaign. Suddenly he became nearly unhittable, his walk rate plummeted and he transformed into the pitcher New York thought they were getting when they shipped Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn and Boone Logan out of town.

But is Vazquez’s recent success simply a product of him rediscovering his fastball? Yes. And no.

The importance of Vazquez’s off-speed pitches

I would argue that Vazquez’s success is more a product of him being able to effectively utilize his off-speed offerings. Over the course of Vazquez’s career, his change-up has been his best pitch. Of course, no matter how great your change-up is, it still needs a solid fastball to work off, and creating good separation in velocity between your fastball and change-up is crucial for either pitch to be effective.

Yesterday, we looked at some of the best and worst pitches of 2011 by using Fangraphs’ pitch values. Using those same pitch values we can see that Vazquez’s change-up rates at 1.21 runs above average for his entire career since Fangraphs started tracking this data back in 2002. His curveball is his next best pitch at 0.75 runs above average, his slider rates at 0.03 runs above average and his fastball checks in at exactly league average for his career, 0.00 runs above. With a fastball clocked at just 88.7 mph last year—his previous career low was 90.1 mph back in 2003—it should come as no surprise that Vazquez’s change-up rated as -0.18 runs above average, his curveball at -0.77 and his slider at -1.02.

This year, Vazquez has been throwing his change-up less often (7.8% of the time, career 15.4%) and his curveball and slider more often. Since my argument today is that Vazquez’s success is more a product of his ability to create separation in velocity between his fastball and off-speed stuff, I’ll use his change-up velocity alone from here on out instead of all three (keep it simple, stupid) since it has consistently been his most successful and oft-used off-speed pitch over the course of his career.

To illustrate the importance of the separation of velocities in Vazquez’s rebirth this June, I looked at his fastball velocity, change-up velocity and the difference between the two as they relate to his ERA+. If you’ve never heard of ERA+ before, it’s simply a measure of how a pitcher’s ERA compares to the league average for that year. If a pitcher finishes the year with a 3.50 ERA and the league average ERA is 4.00, then his ERA+ that year is 114.28. For our purposes here I calculated ERA+ as (lgERA/ERA)*100 so in this example the ERA+ for our mystery pitcher would be as follows: (4.00)/(3.50)*100 = 114.28. This pitcher’s ERA is 14.28 percent better than the league average. It’s that simple.

To remove as many variables as possible, I calculated Vazquez’s ERA+ each season using the league average ERA of the league he played in (American or National) for that year. In 2004 Vazquez pitched for the Yankees so I used the league average ERA in the AL that year, 4.63. In 2005 he pitched for the Diamondbacks so I used the league average ERA for the NL that year, 4.22.

Then I plotted his ERA+ for each year from 2002 through 2010 against three separate sets of data:

1. Vazquez’s average fastball velocity each year
2. Vazquez’s average change-up velocity each year
3. Vazquez’s average difference in velocity between his fastball and change-up each year

The idea here is to see how well each acts as a predictor of his ERA. To do this I inserted the coefficient of determination in the top-left corner of each graph. This sounds complicated, but it’s really not. Essentially, it rates the ability of one variable to predict changes in another—in our case, the ability of Vazquez’s pitch velocities to predict his ERA. This number ranges from zero to one. The closer it is to zero, the more unconnected or unrelated the two sets of data are. The closer it is to one, the more connected or related they are. If the coefficient of determination was exactly one, then the data on the x-axis, Vazquez’s average fastball velocity in the first graph below, would be a perfect predictor of his ERA. This means just by knowing his average fastball velocity in any year we could exactly predict his ERA. This is an extreme example and would never happen, of course.

Graphing the results

First, let me credit Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball for all of this velocity data. Fangraphs provides the season-to-season pitch velocity data and Brooks Baseball has an awesome pitch FX log that lets you look up all kinds of crazy stats for any game you want. Check them out.

Let’s take a look at how these three graphs shape up.

Not surprisingly, the graph above shows that as Vazquez’s fastball velocity increases, his ERA+ (remember, his ERA in relation to the rest of the league) increases as well. While there are only nine data points, this data generates a coefficient of determination of 0.354. This tells us that Vazquez’s fastball velocity alone is not a very good predictor of ERA+, but it does have a measure of importance.

With a coefficient of determination of just 0.076, Vazquez’s change-up velocity alone is a very poor predictor of his ERA+. This isn’t surprising, though, as a good change-up isn’t good because it travels at a certain velocity, but rather because the arm action looks like that of a fastball yet the velocity is different. This brings us to our last graph.

The graph for the difference between Vazquez’s fastball and change-up velocities versus ERA+ yielded the greatest coefficient of determination of the three at 0.489. This falls in line with what we established about Vazquez’s career pitch value for his change-up being better than that of any of his other pitches. When he is able to throw his fastball with a high enough velocity and come back at the hitter with a change-up that has good separation in speed, then he is able to keep the hitter off balance and post better ERAs.

Remember, a higher ERA+ corresponds to a lower ERA. An ERA+ of 115 would means the pitcher’s ERA was 15 percent better (read: 15% lower) than league average.

Does this correlate with what we’ve seen from Vazquez this season?

Over his first 12 starts, Vazquez’s average fastball velocity was 88.6 mph and his average change-up velocity was 79.4 mph (9.2-mph difference).

Over his last seven starts, Vazquez’s average fastball velocity was 90.8 mph and his average change-up velocity was 79.8 mph (11.0-mph difference).

Microsoft Excel is pretty awesome because it automatically calculates equations for the best-fit lines I added to each graph. Using the given equation for the best-fit line applied to the chart right above (Difference Between Fastball & Change-up vs. ERA+) a 9.2-mph difference corresponds to an ERA+ of 66.62. Vazquez’s actual ERA+ over this 12-start span was 63.32. Similarly, the 11.0-mph difference we’ve seen over Vazquez’s last seven starts corresponds to an ERA+ of 121.17. His actual ERA+ over that span was 130.03.

For the sake of bringing everything full-circle, let’s see what Vazquez’s expected ERA+ would be for graphs one and two, and why don’t we put everything together in a nice, easy-to-read chart while we’re at it?

Like we saw with the three coefficient of determination values from the charts above, change-up velocity alone wasn’t a good predictor of Vazquez’s ERA+ in any given year as it yielded percent errors of 52.06 percent and 23.84 percent. Fastball velocity didn’t do a great job as a predictor either—17.45 percent error and 20.86 percent error—but velocity difference between fastball and change-up was astoundingly accurate.

If you’re trying to predict Vazquez’s performance from here on out, pay attention to his fastball velocity, but make sure you do it in the context of his change-up velocity as well.

I’ll take this a step further today by giving you several drop/adds you should utilize in your fantasy league this season. To be considered, players to be dropped had to be owned in at least 50 percent of leagues and players to be added had to be owned in no more than 50 percent of leagues.

Of course, these specific drop/adds won’t apply to many leagues as some players I suggest to add will already be owned and you probably don’t have many of the players I suggest to drop, so use it more abstractly. Obviously I don’t consider the guys I’m dropping to be good bets going forward and the opposite applies to the guys I suggest adding. Use this to make trades as the season goes along.

DROP: Carlos Lee, 1B/OF, HOU

ADD: Travis Snider, OF, TOR

Analysis

Lee is the 26th-ranked first baseman, making him a below average replacement at that position, and the 51st-ranked outfielder, making him a fourth outfielder in a 16 team league that starts three outfielders or a fifth outfielder in a 12 team league that starts five outfielders. He’s old, he’s not going to get stronger in the second half, he doesn’t steal bases, he doesn’t hit home runs and he doesn’t score runs. What he does do is waste a roster spot in 73 percent of fantasy leagues.

Snider is owned in just 34 percent of leagues but is batting .391 with a homer, 12 RBI, 10 runs and three steals in just 11 games (46 at-bats) since he was recalled from the minors. He does everything that Lee does and then some, and he has a lot more potential given his youth and the lineup surrounding him. You lose Lee’s first base eligibility, but that wasn’t very valuable given how poorly he ranked there. You can easily find a replacement first baseman for your bench.

DROP: Aubrey Huff, 1B/OF, SF

ADD: Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA

Analysis

Huff is owned in 57 percent of fantasy leagues despite being the 313th overall player because of what he did last season. Nearly four months into 2011, it’s time to start considering what he’s doing this year: nothing. His .235 average is acceptable from a player like Carlos Pena who can hit you 30-plus home runs, but Huff has just nine. His 31 runs in 353 at-bats ranks 32nd among first basemen and 85th among outfielders.

I’ve long criticized Trumbo for not scoring enough runs (37) and not hitting for a high enough average (.255), but he’s replacing a guy who’s worse at both of those anyway. At least Trumbo hits homers (18), already hitting five in just 13 July games.

DROP: Ian Desmond, SS, WAS

ADD: Zack Cozart, SS, CIN

Analysis

I really thought Desmond would be a great value this season. I expected him to have at least 30 combined home runs and steals with a solid, .260-.280 average. That’s not been the case. While his 20 steals are very nice, he’s giving you nothing anywhere else. Just three home runs? A .226 average? No thanks. Worst of all, he’s not likely to get better anytime soon with a strikeout rate that’s way up from last year’s already elevated mark.

You’ve probably never heard of Cozart before today, but he’s a name worth knowing. He’s batting .400 to start his major league career (10-for-25) with just three strikeouts. He has the power/speed combo we hoped to see from Desmond, hitting 17 homers and stealing 30 bases in triple-A in 2010 before hitting seven homers with nine steals in the first half of this season in triple-A. The Reds have a strong offense in which Cozart has spent some time batting second, and right now his only competition at shortstop is Edgar Renteria. Yeah, I thought he retired, too.

DROP: Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW

ADD: Javier Vazquez, SP, FLA

Analysis

If you search the Baseball Professor archives for “Gavin Floyd” you’ll probably come across several articles that tout him as a second-half star. Not today. Typically his best months of the year are in June or July and that signals when you should add him. This year he started hot and has had ERAs over 5.00 in June and July with opponents’ averages of .281 and .293, respectively. His overall stats aren’t awful, but they will be soon.

Vazquez has his velocity back! His average fastball over his last seven starts is back to levels we haven’t seen since 2009, and we all remember how stunningly great he was that season (15-10, 2.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 238 Ks). This all began with his start on June 11 against the Diamondbacks, a game in which he was rocked for seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. If we throw out that game, Vazquez is 3-2 with a 1.69 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 29 strikeouts in his last six starts (37 1/3 innings). He didn’t walk a batter in four of his last five starts, something he had done only one other time in his prior 14 starts this season. He’s owned in just 21 percent of leagues (including mine!) so you probably can still probably get him. Javy’s back!

DROP: Matt Capps, RP, MIN

ADD: Bobby Parnell, RP, NYM

Analysis

Capps is still owned in 60 percent of leagues despite losing the closer’s job to Joe Nathan. Honestly, most of the leagues where Capps is still owned have probably folded or faded to irrelevance, but it’s still a staggering number given he’s as useful as a wet tissue.

With Francisco Rodriguez now in Milwaukee, the Mets closing responsibilities now fall on the shoulders of Parnell, Jason Isringhausen and Pedro Beato. There’s rumor that Izzy might be traded before the deadline, which leaves just Parnell and Beato. Of the two, I’m fairly convinced Parnell gets the job. This is purely a speculative add since nothing has really been announced yet and the Mets haven’t had a save chance in their three games since the trade, but if Izzy is traded Parnell is someone you’ll want to grab. For what it’s worth, Isringhausen pitched the ninth inning in the first game after the All-Star Break when the Mets were losing 8-4 and Parnell pitched the eighth inning the next day when they were already up big.

First, here’s the good news. Sizemore’s strikeout rate (21.1%) and line drive rate (20.0%) are both sustainable given his career averages. For the most part, this means that he should continue putting the ball in play at the same rate we’ve seen over his first eight games and his average should only drop as a result of luck (that .455 BABIP will probably end up around .300).

Now, the not-so-good news. Sizemore’s fly ball rate (60.0%) is astronomical and his HR/FB rate (20.0%) is well above his previous career high (14.5%). This means Sizemore is hitting more fly balls than usual, and a higher percentage of those fly balls are leaving the yard. Granted, he only has three homers on the season, but don’t try and extrapolate that pace over a full season and expect 35-plus bombs. It’s not going to happen. Even in a full season of at-bats, Sizemore is probably more of a mid-to-high 20s guy.

Given his likely low batting average (career .274 with three straight years under that mark) and questionable stolen base output as a result of the injuries he has sustained, is it worth trading for a hot bat that contributes in only a couple categories and is probably overhyped right now? My guess is no. If you have Sizemore I would actively try to trade him, and if someone approached me with Sizemore I’d politely listen to what he was selling before passing on the offer. I don’t want any part of an injury-prone player who’s falsely regarded as a 20/20 threat. It’s not happening.

Three Up

Melky Cabrera, OF, KC - 3-for-4, HR, SB, 2 R, 2 RBI

Wilson Ramos, C, WAS – 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI

Adam Lind, 1B, TOR – 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 R, 5 RBI

Three Down

Colby Rasmus, OF, STL – 0-for-5, K, 4 LOB

Matt Harrison, SP, TEX – 3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, K

Marlon Byrd, OF, CHC – 0-for-4, 3 K, 4 LOB

Notes:

• After about a month those Carl Crawford or Ryan Braun debates seem sort of pointless. Of course, Crawford could outperform Braun over the last five months of the season, but have you actually seen how awesome Braun has been? He hit his ninth homer of the season on Tueday and has 20-plus runs and RBI, too. Perhaps best of all, his walk rate is more than double his career average (15.5% to 7.5%) which tells me he’s seeing the ball incredibly well and is waiting for his pitches. If you don’t have Braun you likely won’t be able to get him right now, and if you do have him you likely aren’t selling him after this start, but I thought it was worth noting. That’s what this section is for after all…las notas.
• Sorry, Jed Lowrie, but Matt Holliday is the only qualified player still batting over .400. Unfortunately he’s only had one home run and two RBI over his last eight games, but he is batting .375 with seven runs scored over that span. The rest will come.
• Break up the Florida Marlins! With three straight wins, the Team That Should be in Vegas has seized the top spot in the NL East with the latest win coming courtesy of Chris Volstad‘s first quality start of the season. Leo Nunez already has seven saves and is putting together another good season, Mike Stanton has rebounded from that funk he was in and Hanley Ramirez had his first two-hit game since April 14. Overall, every Marlins’ pitcher has been fantastic as long as their last name doesn’t begin with a V (Volstad, Javier Vazquez) and I expect one of them *cough* Volstad *cough* to be rosterable in fantasy leagues.

Martin came into this year on a severe career downward trend that had many believing he was washed up. Less than a month into the season, Martin is sitting with a .328 average, six home runs and 16 RBI. That’s good for the top rank among catchers.

But hey, hindsight is 20/20 right? We want to know how he’s going to do from here on out.

My suggestion would be to get while the gettin’ is good, because Martin has shown a trend of wearing down as the season grows older. It’s possible he makes it to 20 home runs because of his home ball park, but I would take the under and would definitely trade him before his value starts to dip. It’s hard enough to trade catchers and one sign of weakness and he’s yours whether you like it or not.

His value is arguably at its peak and if you can get something of value, I would pull the trigger because there’s a good chance Martin will be replacement level by midseason.

Here’s my take on some other hot and cold starts to the 2011 baseball season:

Hot Starts

Who I’m Buyin’

Matt Kemp, OF, LAD (.402 BA, 5 HR, 8 SB) — We told you to buy into a bounce back season and he’s not disappointing. He could get to 40 steals this year.

Colby Rasmus, OF, STL (.333 BA, 17 R, 3 HR, 2 SB) — Platoon? What platoon? Rasmus is hitting over .300 against all pitchers and, even better, he has over a .400 on-base percentage against them as well.

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT (.284, 15 R, 3 HR, 9 SB) — Has cooled off a little as of late, but nothing will stop me from loving Tabata batting in front of the likes of Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez.

Kyle Lohse, SP, STL (3 W, 31.1 IP, 22 K, 2.01 ERA, 0.73 WHIP) — You can read my take on Lohse here.

Josh Beckett, SP, BOS (2 W, 28 IP, 28 K, 1.93 WHIP, 0.79 WHIP) — Beckett has his binky back in Jason Varitek, which means good numbers are in his future. Just keep your fingers crossed that Varitek, a 39-year-old catcher doesn’t get injured for an extended period of time.

Drew Storen, RP, WAS (3 SV, 12.2 IP, 9 K, 0.71 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) — It was only a matter of time that Storen got his job back and he wasted very little time in doing so. Sean Burnett got his first save on April 2 and Storen has three saves just 24 days later. He looks like a former top-10 pick.

Who I’m Not Buyin’

Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW (.293, 6 HR, 16 RBI) — I’m buying the production, but not the fact that he’s going to be healthy all year. His career high in games played is 131 and he is continually among the leaders in the hit by pitch category. You could probably get something very good for him now.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, KC (.325 BA, 4 HR, 18 RBI) — Once the calendar turns to May, the real Francoeur will resurface. It seems like he does this every year and he hasn’t changed anything in his approach to make me think he’s a different player.

Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS, BOS (.431, 3 HR, 13 R, 12 RBI) — Much like Quentin, I believe in the production (OK, so the average is a little high), but there’s no doubt in my mind that Scutaro is going to steal at-bats and Lowrie hasn’t been the most durable of players in his career.

Justin Masterson, SP, CLE (4 W, 26.1 IP, 14 K, 2.02 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) — He almost had me believing, but then I remembered he was Justin Masterson. I still don’t see enough improvement against lefties to be able to trust him most than a spot starter at this point.

Randy Wolf, SP, MIL (3 W, 30.2 IP, 29 K, 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) — Wolf is a solid pitcher, but an 8.52 K/9? That’s a bit extreme and Wolf shouldn’t be anything more than a spot starter in 10-team mixed leagues.

Cold Starts

Who I’m Buying

Carl Crawford, OF, BOS (.171 BA, 5 R, 1 HR, 4 SB) — Crawford is a great player. Crawford is a great player. Crawford is a great player. Convinced yet? This is as close to rock bottom as you can get for a hitter, but better days are ahead.

Adam Dunn, 1B, CHW (.145 BA, 2 HR, 8 RBI) — He’s swinging and missing at 17 percent of his swings and considering his career average is a little under 12 percent that’s a significant difference. Never rule out a 40-home run season for this guy.

Nick Markakis, OF, BAL (.208 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI) — If it’s one thing you can count on his Markakis it’s that he’s going to hit for a good batting average. When that isn’t there he’s not rosterable. Right now, owners are realizing that the hard way, but the patient ones will be rewarded with a good average and a good amount of runs/RBI.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU (1 W, 30 IP, 27 K, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) — A lot of people gave up on Wandy last year and then he was one of the best pitchers in the second half. His 27 K:9 BB ratio is a good sign that he will turn things around soon.

Daniel Hudson, SP, ARI (0 W, 24.1 IP, 26 K, 5.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) — Here’s another pitcher who will turn things around this season. Hudson has yet to win his first game, but still is striking out a lot of batters and all his underlying stats are in the same ballpark as last year except for his control. Something that can be fixed.

Matt Thornton, RP, CHW (0 SV, 6.2 IP, 7 K, 6.75 ERA, 2.40 WHIP) — The White Sox want Thornton to be their closer and ever since he lost the job he has pitched two innings with four strikeouts. A couple more solid outings and he will be put back in as closer.

Who I’m Not Buying

Derek Jeter, SS, NYY (.257 BA, 12 R, 0 HR, 0 SB) — The rough offseason. His age. Plays a taxing position. There are many reasons to hate Jeter this year and he’s showing that his 2010 numbers weren’t a fluke. This player is legitimately on his last legs and I’d be surprised if he made it through his whole new contract before retiring.

Chase Utley, 2B, PHI (N/A) —Speaking of not being a fan, I’m not buying into much production from Utley this year. The team is hopeful that Utley will return at the end of May, but how effective will he be on the field? My bet is he plays fewer than 40 games.

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN (1 W, 20.2 IP, 14 K, 7.40 ERA, 1.69 WHIP) — Sometimes you just have to accept when you’re wrong. I had Liriano as a nice option for this season, but he has done his best to make me, and himself, look like a fool. Liriano really hasn’t put together a good, full season in his career and it raises the question, why did we let the smoke screen blind us?

Javier Vazquez, SP, FLA (1 W, 19.1 IP, 11 K, 6.52 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) — I saw a lot of people pegging Vazquez as a sleeper because of his move back to the National League. What I saw, and still see, is a power pitcher who has lost velocity on his power pitches. Normally, that’s not a good sign.

Ryan Franklin, RP, STL (1 SV, 8 IP, 3 K, 7.87 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) — It seems like the ride is over for Franklin. Not only has he been horribly ineffective this year, but Mitchell Boggs has been very good as the team’s new closer.

The Marlins will undoubtedly provide some fantasy treasure but beware of the players who turn out to be fool’s gold. To help determine which players to draft and which to avoid, here is a preview of the 2011 Florida Marlins.

Guys I Like

Hanley Ramirez, SS – You already know that Ramirez is worthy of an early first round pick but is he worthy of the number one overall pick? I say yes and here’s why. Say you take Albert Pujols with the first pick and then nab Elvis Andrus later on to be your shortstop (ADP 80.2). But then you realize you could have taken Kendry Morales (ADP 75.7) instead of Andrus if you had taken Ramirez over Pujols earlier. Now tell me with a straight face that you would rather have Pujols/Andrus than Ramirez/Morales. I know I most certainly take the latter.

Josh Johnson, SP – Johnson might have the best pure stuff in the National League but his durability will always be in question. It’s tough to project 200 innings from him but when he does pitch you can expect a sub-three ERA, a low WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Johnson as my number one starter but if he’s your number two, consider yourself lucky.

Mike Stanton, OF – Stanton’s power is jaw-dropping. At 20 years old he hit 22 home runs in a mere 359 at-bats. His slugging percentage was .507 and his ISO was .248. The only troubling sign for Stanton is his propensity to strikeout which does not bode well for his batting average. The good news is that his walk rate was a healthy 8.6 percent last year and he has a reputation of being a fast learner. It’s entirely possible that Stanton hits 35 home runs this year and approaches 100 RBI.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B – Last year, Sanchez batted .273 with 19 home runs and 85 RBI. Not bad for a first baseman, but even better considering he was a rookie. He showed exceptional command of the strike zone for a young player with a walk rate of 8.9 percent and a strikeout rate of 17.7 percent. Sanchez has the ability to develop more power as some of the 37 doubles he hit last year could translate into a few more home runs.

Ricky Nolasco, SP – Count me as part of Nolasco’s dwindling fan club. Despite two straight disappointing seasons his xFIP was 3.28 in 2009 and 3.55 in 2010. Nolasco is also developing pin-point control, lowering his walks per nine innings from 2.14 to 1.88. If he can harness some of that control and turn it into command, then he’s sure to cut down on the home runs that have been plaguing him. Add in over eight strikeouts per nine innings and Nolasco is someone I’m hoping to get on the cheap.

Guys I Don’t Like

Javier Vazquez, SP – Be careful not to blindly draft Vazquez thinking that the move to the National League will bring instant success. If Vazquez can’t find the velocity on his fastball (88.7 MPH last year vs. 91.1 MPH the year before) then he’s not likely to be any more effective than he was with the Yankees.

Chris Coghlan, OF – If only he were still a second baseman. Some will remember Coghlan’s 2009 rookie of the year campaign and draft him with confidence but really, he’s not that valuable as an outfielder. He hasn’t hit double digit home runs or stolen more than 10 bases in either of his first two years and his batting average plummeted all the way down to .268 last year. The only way Coghlan provides a lot of value is if he can bat north of .320 but he’ll be lucky to top .300.

John Buck, C – The power is real. Even though Buck hit 20 home runs, the most of his career, neither his home run to fly ball ratio of 14.7% percent or ISO of .208 were career highs. The reason I don’t like Buck this year is because there is no way he’s going to duplicate a .281 batting average. His abnormally high batting average was propelled by a .335 BABIP – too high for someone with a line drive percentage of only 16.1 percent. Since Buck’s isn’t exactly fleet of foot, I think it’s safe to say that his batting average was mostly a product of luck.

Sleeper

Logan Morrison, OF – George Fitopoulos already hyped him up so I won’t go into detail here but suffice to say, we both believe his plate discipline will lead to early success, making Morrison a 2011 fantasy sleeper.