Tag Archives | Jason Heyward

Player Profile #86: Jason Heyward | OF | ATL

By on February 4, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

In 2010, Jason Heyward turned heads with a very solid season as a 20-year-old rookie. His PSR was even in the top 100, so many thought we were looking at the next big thing in fantasy baseball. Well, a combination of injuries and regression hurt his 2011 value, and he ended up ranking a very poor 376th. The good news is that Heyward is still only 21 years old and has plenty of time to develop into a big-time, MLB hitter. The bad news? He has battled injuries for two seasons now and we can’t help but draw cross-sport comparisons with Greg Oden. Let’s hope that’s not the case.

Best case scenario: Justin Upton (ARI)
Similar players: Michael Cuddyer (COL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Shoulder injury comes back

Strengths

Plate discipline, power, age. His plate discipline took a step backwards last season, but he still has an above average career O-Swing% (26.1%) and OBP (.362), especially for someone his age. Also, his raw power is drool-inducing when you consider that he has 32 home runs in 916 at-bats (28.63 AB/HR) with a career 54.6 ground ball percentage.

Weaknesses

Ground balls, injuries. If Heyward can figure out how to hit more fly balls (career 29.7%) his home run totals would sky rocket. Unfortunately there have been no signs of that getting better so it’s just blind faith that he will keep improving as a hitter. It also doesn’t help that he spent almost the entire 2011 season nursing a shoulder injury.

ADP Report (108.3)

We at Baseball Professor are definitely buying into the potential that Heyward has, and I think he’s worth a gamble as early as the seventh round. I’ll admit that expectations for 2012 should be tempered, but in keeper leagues he shouldn’t be lasting past the fifth round because the potential is there for him to be a top-10 outfielder for the next 10 years.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

2012 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Rankings, 61-80

By on September 12, 2011 | Comments { 4 }

Yesterday we unveiled our 2012 fantasy baseball keeper rankings for players 81 through 100, and today we give you players 61 through 80.

Players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Check back tomorrow for players 41 through 60 as we count down the top 100.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

RankPlayerAgePositionProfessor's Note
61Elvis Andrus23SSElite R/SB and still young enough to improve, but zero power
62Hunter Pence29OFGreat production in Philly and contributes everywhere
63Ryan Howard321BAge is a serious concern but still a 40 HR, 120 RBI threat
64Mike Napoli30C/1B25 HR in 322 AB with Texas right now from a C
65Josh Johnson28SPTop 5 SP stuff but a perennial injury risk
66Jason Heyward22OF2011 was a lost season but tons of potential here
67Drew Stubbs27OFPotential for 60+ HR/SB combined and tons of runs but low BA
68Craig Kimbrel23CL40+ saves and as many K as Leake and Happ in half the innings
69Brian McCann28CConsistently 20+ HR and a .280-ish BA with good R/RBI for a C
70Michael Bourn29OFGame's best SB artist with a near-.300 BA and 90 or so R
71Alex Gordon28OFBreakout season ranks top 25; losing 3B eligibility hurts
72Chris Young28OFCareer .239 hitter but a perennial 20/20 threat
73Adam Jones26OFDoesn't run much but solid AVG/HR/RBI production and some youth
74Aramis Ramirez333BBack-to-back solid power seasons, but got his BA back up
75Kevin Youkilis331B/3BAge/injuries taking their toll but a .290/25 HR player most years
76Starlin Castro22SSWe'll see how much power he develops but a nice SS right now
77James Shields30SPNot as good as 2011 indicates but solid SP year in, year out
78Colby Rasmus25OFDespite struggles in TOR I'm still convinced it's a good fit
79Shane Victorino31OFI don't see a weakness aside from missing time due to injury
80Dustin Ackley242B/OFSafeco/Seattle offense limit him some but he has a great swing

Read full story · Comments { 4 }

Daily Fantasy Recap: Pitching prevails on Opening Day, 2011

By on April 1, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The 2011 edition of baseball’s Opening Day picked up right where 2010 left off: pitching was the story.

In all, the 12 teams in action on Thursday averaged 3.42 runs with one shutout and seven teams scoring three or fewer runs. Of course, with certifiable aces taking the mound for most of the teams in play (sorry, Livan Hernandez…you’re not quite “ace-quality” in my book) this isn’t exactly a surprise.

Like we’ll do every day throughout the season, here are some fantasy-worthy notes and some hastily-drawn conclusions from baseball’s first day of games:

Detroit Tigers 3 @ New York Yankees 6

  • Brett Gardner batted leadoff for the Yankees, something he did in just 25 of his 150 games last season. This could mean a lot more runs for a player who scored 97 times last season hitting primarily eighth and ninth.
  • The Joba Chamberlain-Rafael Soriano-Mariano Rivera chain worked to perfection (literally) as no Tiger reached base in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings. If CC Sabathia can keep going six or seven innings in each of his starts he could match (or even surpass?) his 21 wins from a season ago. In 2010, Sabathia averaged almost exactly seven innings per start.
  • Curtis Granderson homered off a left-handed pitcher (Phil Coke), something he did just four times last year in 158 at-bats versus southpaws (.354 SLG). Coke allowed just one homer in 110 at-bats to left-handed batters last season.
  • Russell Martin played well in his New York debut. He went 1-for-3 with two runs scored and even stole a base. Martin swiped only six bags last season.
  • Austin Jackson struck out three times in four at-bats including twice in three at-bats versus Sabathia. Jackson struck out 170 times last year and four times in seven at-bats versus Sabathia in 2010.

Atlanta Braves 2 @ Washington Nationals 0

  • Chipper Jones is making good on his teammates’ word after they said he was playing like he had something to prove this spring. Jones went 2-for-4 with a double and a run scored batting third for Atlanta.
  • Jason Heyward homered in his first at-bat! He’s now homered in his first at-bat of every season of his Major League career!! Wow!!! (sarcasm?)
  • Jayson Werth batted second for the Nationals, a spot we’ll continuously see him batting in due to his high OBP (or so says Nats’ manager Jim Riggelman).
  • Danny Espinosa was the lone bright spot for the Nationals’ offense as he went 2-for-3 with a double. I’m telling you…get this kid while you still can.
  • Both starters (Derek Lowe and Livan Hernandez) pitched very effectively. Lowe struck out six with just five baserunners in 5 2/3innings. Hernandez made me look like a fool in my intro to this post (but we’ll see who gets the last laugh, Livan) by allowing just four hits and walking none in 6 1/3 innings. He was the tough-luck loser.
  • Jonny Venters pitched the eighth and Detective Craig Kimbrel (this will be a running joke on BProf—Kindergarten Cop if you’re wondering) pitched a perfect ninth for the save. Note: two strikeouts and zero walks!
  • We also saw four of Washington’s relievers in the losing effort, none of whom were Drew Storen. This bodes well for his full-time closing chances…for now.

Milwaukee Brewers 6 @ Cincinnati Reds 7

  • Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez led off the season with back-to-back homers. This hadn’t been done in baseball in 42 years. Maybe more importantly, Weeks managed to stay healthy for the whole game. One down, 161 to go.
  • Oh, and Gomez’s big fly reinforces the confidence Milwaukee has in him to be their everyday center fielder. Nyjer Morgan owners, feel free to sigh in disgust for the time being.
  • Casey McGehee added two RBI. He’s on pace for 324 this season. While he’ll probably fall a little short of that, I still maintain he’s one of 2011′s best bargains.
  • Edinson Volquez blew it, allowing five runs on three homers in his six innings. Hey, at least he only walked two batters. For anyone who owns Volquez, you won’t want to this season.
  • Damn you, John Axford. You were my only pitcher to go on Thursday so I’m stuck looking at a “54.00″ in my team’s ERA column for the day.
  • Takashi Saito allowed two hits but did strike out two batters. He also looked a lot better than Axford, who’s job could be in jeopardy in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels 4 @ Kansas City Royals 2

  • Jered Weaver picked up where he left off last season, striking out six batters without allowing a run in 6.1 innings.
  • Fernando Rodney‘s job is safe…for another day.
  • After a great spring, Alex Gordon went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts batting third for the Royals.
  • Mike Aviles and Jeff Francoeur homered for Kansas City. Both players could be very valuable this season, particularly if they get at-bats (Francoeur).
  • Luke Hochevar continues to resemble a batting practice pitching machine. He allowed nine hits in his 5.2 innings of work. Eight of the nine Angels starters registered a hit (Mark Trumbo didn’t).

San Diego 5 @ St. Louis 3, F/11

  • Chris Carpenter was great (7 innings, 2 runs, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks). Ryan Franklin wasn’t (game-tying homer to Cameron Maybin). Franklin blew just two of 29 save chances last season.
  • Speaking of Maybin, good to see him have some Major League glory. Better yet, he only struck out once in five at-bats!
  • Tim Stauffer allowed nine hits in six innings but gave up just two runs.
  • Heath Bell saved the game. Reports are he won’t be traded before the team’s next game so owners waiting for Luke Gregerson or Mike Adams to assume the closer’s role will have to wait another day (more sarcasm).

San Francisco Giants 1 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 2

  • The day’s best pitching matchup lived up to the hype. Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum each went seven innings and neither allowed an earned run. Kershaw looked more locked in, striking out nine Giants and walking just one as he threw strikes on 65 of his 96 pitches (67.7%).
  • Jonathan Broxton labored through the ninth inning, allowing a run but still getting the save. Hong-Chi Kuo labored as well, throwing 22 pitches, but walked just one and didn’t allow a run. Let the closer controversy commence!
  • Matt Kemp walked three times and didn’t strike out at all. That sure beats his ratio of 53 walks to 170 strikeouts last season. He also stole a base.
  • Reports of Brandon Belt starting Opening Day were in fact true as Aubrey Huff trotted out to right field with Cody Ross on the 15-day DL. Belt went 1-for-3 with a walk.
  • Pat Burrell partied like it was 2006, hitting an Opening Day homer for the second time in his career. For what it’s worth, he hit 29 home runs that year.
Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Don't Hate the Player, Hate the ADP: Jason Heyward

By on March 20, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Hype is a beautiful thing. Even if it’s warranted, as in the case of Jason Heyward, it still overrates a player.

A lot was expected from Heyward in his rookie season and he didn’t disappoint. As a 20 year old he managed a .277 batting average to go along with 83 runs, 18 home runs, 72 RBI and 11 stolen bases. Those numbers were good enough to make Heyward the 11th outfield taken on average in ESPN leagues with an ADP 43.5. Wait, really?

Heyward is definitely a once in a decade talent but let’s not put him in elite status yet. Maybe in 2012, but not in 2011. To be considered a number one outfielder in a 12-team league like many people are regarding Heyward, a player needs to be very good in multiple categories or exceptional in one while not being a liability in the others.

Heyward doesn’t fulfill either option yet. Although he’s above average in every category, he’s not that strong in any particular category yet.  His power is still developing as a 21 year old. Last year he hit one home run every 28.89 at-bats. In other words, Heyward hit a home run less frequently than both Lyle Overbay and Jeff Francoeur. Although he has base stealing ability, he’s unlikely to be a 20-plus base stealer. As for batting average, Heyward has an exception eye for the strike zone and I see him batting close to .300, but not any higher in 2011.

Let’s compare how Heyward’s numbers stacked up last year to a similarly hyped outfielder:

Jason Heyward: 520 AB | .277 BA | 83 R | 18 HR | 72 RBI | 11 SB

Jay Bruce: 509 AB | .281 BA | 80 R | 25 HR | 70 RBI | 5 SB

Even though Bruce is only 23 years old and his numbers were slightly better than Heyward’s last year, his ADP is 77.4, or 34 picks AFTER Heyward. I agree that Heyward should be the one drafted first but the difference shouldn’t be nearly this great.

There are also several outfielders being drafted after Heyward that will yield at least the same production such as Jayson Werth, Alex Rios and Hunter Pence. Sure they don’t have the same potential as Heyward but they’ll be available a couple of rounds later which will allow you to draft a stud starting pitcher, a top middle infielder or a top corner infielder.

If you’re in a keeper league however, all bets are off. Since Heyward’s potential is immense, I’m drafting him well before the 43rd pick. Unfortunately, most of us play in yearly leagues and Heyward doesn’t have the time to develop into one of the game’s best outfielders in only one year.

Yes, hype is a beautiful thing but it can still rear it’s ugly head, even when surrounding one of the game’s future stars.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

5 Big Questions: 2011 Atlanta Braves

By on February 25, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

We here at Baseball Professor think about our readers first and ourselves second—albeit a close second. That’s why we decided to reach out to other bloggers (who follow their respective teams more closely than we do) to give you a deeper look into the important issues every fantasy owner has to come to grips with this season. Our ninth installment is with the Atlanta Braves and comes courtesy of Peter Hjort from the Capitol Avenue Club.

For a complete trip around the Majors, check out the other 2011 team previews in this series.

1) After one year, Jason Heyward looks like the real deal. He already has the plate discipline of a seasoned veteran and is on the fast track to be one of the game’s best outfielders. Am I right, or am I right?

Yes, but with a caveat. So far he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for an entire professional season. The thumb injury last year was more of a 1-time event, but he’s suffered from nagging muscle strains/pulls throughout his pro career. If he stays healthy for a full season there’s no telling what he’s capable of, but we’d like to see him do it before we call him the next franchise savior.

2) The Braves have another big-time prospect on the verge of breaking into the starting lineup in Freddie Freeman. When do you think he will be called up and what can we expect from him when he does?

He’ll be the opening day, regular first baseman. I wouldn’t expect a whole lot in 2011. A .270-.280 average (there’s a lot of inherent error with batting average, but that’s my least-error projection), 15-20 homers, next to no steals. He’ll be hitting towards the bottom of the lineup for most of the year, so I wouldn’t expect many runs or RBI’s. I definitely wouldn’t draft him in a mixed league and I’d only draft him in an NL-only if my strategy is to punt first base (not a good one, IMO). Keeper league owners might consider taking him in the last round, but remember he doesn’t have big-time power potential, limiting his upside at first base. Eventually he’ll be a pretty good player, but a lot of the reasons he’ll be good for Atlanta won’t help your fantasy team.

3) There is a lot of excitement surrounding Craig Kimbrel as the potential closer and the reason for that excitement is his high strikeout rate (17.42 K/9) last year. Unfortunately, Jonny Venters proves to be in the mix as well and could be just as effective. Fantasy players hate closers in platoon situations so please sort out the situation for us.

I expect Craig Kimbrel to get most of the save opportunities. Fredi Gonzalez has said he’s not adverse to using a sort of platoon in the 9th innings: Venters going against lefties, Kimbrel against righties. I don’t expect that to last very long, though. Eventually he’ll probably revert to his old habits of having his relief pitchers in defined roles, and I expect Kimbrel to be the guy he chooses once he settles on a “closer”. Even if Venters leaves camp as the regular closer, Kimbrel is still the guy I’m targeting in fantasy drafts because a) his strikeouts will help whether he’s closing or not and b) when it’s all said and done I still think Kimbrel ends up with more saves. Do be careful, Kimbrel could end up being a WHIP-killer given his very small track record of throwing strikes.

4) Jair Jurrjens is definitely not as good as his 2.60 ERA in 2009 suggested and his 6.38 career strikeout rate and 3.24 career walk rate leave much to be desired to fantasy owners especially. What do you expect from Jurrjens coming off a knee injury?

I just hope we see Jair Jurrjens healthy and pitching every fifth day. Pitching–especially starting–is tough, and having an entire rotation make it through the year without injuries is close to unprecedented, but I don’t consider Jurrjens to be any more injury-prone than a typical major-league starter. He just had a bad year in that regard. If he’s healthy and taking his turn in the rotation every time, the Braves can expect an ERA in the 3.60-4.00 range (again, with inherent variance). While that’s useful for Atlanta, he’s not a guy I’d target in mixed leagues because of his strikeout rate. If you do end up relying on Jurrjens and he goes down, be sure to swipe Brandon Beachy off waivers, he’s next in line to start and nearly as useful as Jurrjens if given the innings.

5) We all thought Chipper Jones was going to retire last year, but he’s back! What can we seriously expect out of ol’ Chipper this year? He can’t play more than 120 game can he?

I kind of doubt he can play much more than 120 games, but that’s all Atlanta needs out of him. He says he’s going to be ready for opening day, I hope he’s right (and have no reason to think he isn’t). Regarding his performance, he was exceptionally hit-unlucky in 2009 and 2010, I expect him to bounce back in the batting average department going forward. You can’t count on him for much power, but if your league uses on base percentage as a scoring category Chipper is absolutely a must-own player. He’s hitting third for a good offensive team, too, so if you miss out on the top third basemen and Pedro Alvarez, Chipper is who I’d target as my third baseman in the late rounds. Even in a mixed, standard league.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

2011 Fantasy Baseball OF Rankings

By on January 27, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

So far we’ve taken care of the 2011 catcher rankings, first base rankings, second base rankings, third base rankings and shortstop rankings. Whew! It’s a lot to take in, but you’ll feel like a better person afterwards. Like they say, you can never over prepare for a draft. Let’s get to the outfielder tiers.

Tier 1

Carl Crawford (BOS), Ryan Braun (MIL), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Matt Holliday (STL), Josh Hamilton (TEX), Matt Kemp (LAD)

Not a lot wrong with this group as Crawford and Braun are sure-fire first rounders. … Gonzalez probably won’t hit .336 again, but his power and speed (34 HR/26 SB) are here to stay. … Holliday will get you Braun’s stats across the board, but 10-15 picks later. … The tier ends with a couple of questions marks in Hamilton‘s health and Kemp‘s work ethic. Even with Kemp having a “down” year, he still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.

Tier 2

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Justin Upton (ARI), Jason Heyward (ATL), Jayson Werth (WAS), Alex Rios (CHW), Jose Bautista (TOR), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Hunter Pence (HOU), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Andre Ethier (LAD), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS),  Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

You can bank on a .300 AVG, 20 HR and 20 SB from Choo, and if the Indians ever surround him with good hitters he will eclipse 180+ R/RBI. … In his third season, Upton regressed a bit towards his rookie form, but he is still only 23 years old so I wouldn’t panic yet. … Heyward is quickly becoming one of the most beloved young hitters over the last decade because of his great plate discipline (14.6 BB%). … It will be interesting to see what Werth does without the Phillies’ offense surrounding him. … After a disappointing 2009 season, Rios came back and finally eclipsed the 20/20 mark everyone was waiting for. …  You can read my take on Jose Bautista‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value. … Ellsbury should be an elite contributor in runs and steals if he bats first for the Red Sox, and he’s a good candidate to hit near .300. … No need to reiterate how I feel about Ichiro‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value.

Tier 3

Mike Stanton (FLA), Jay Bruce (CIN), Shane Victorino (PHI), Chris Young (ARI), Colby Rasmus (STL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), Ben Zobrist (TB), Corey Hart (MIL), Torii Hunter (LAA), Curtis Granderson (NYY), Delmon Young (MIN), B.J. Upton (TB), Nick Markakis (BAL), Bobby Abreu (LAA), Jason Bay (NYM), Angel Pagan (NYM), Adam Jones (BAL)

Stanton‘s power is out-of-this-world and if he can cut down on the Ks (34.3%) and raise that AVG (.259) he can be a top-10 option by year’s end. … It was nice to see Bruce stay healthy for an entire season. Don’t be surprised if he reaches 30 home runs this year. … The Flyin’ Hawaiian traded his batting average for a little extra power last year. Here’s to hoping he realized that it was a mistake. … Look for Stubbs to be a great value in the middle rounds as his 22 HR and 30 SB aren’t easy to find elsewhere. … Hart had a career-year in 2010 and while he didn’t contribute much with his seven steals, I’ll take the 31 HR and 192 R/RBI. … If you read our study on the importance of lineup slots it should be no surprise that Granderson had a down year batting at the bottom of the Yankees’ order. … Bryan Curley gave his thoughts earlier on why Bay is a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

Tier 4

Juan Pierre (CHW), Vernon Wells (LAA), Grady Sizemore (CLE), Denard Span (MIN), Carlos Lee (HOU), Nick Swisher (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHW), Michael Bourn (HOU), Brett Gardner (NYY), Lance Berkman (STL), Jason Kubel (MIN)

Pierre contributes in steals (68) and runs (96), but that’s about it. … Sizemore can still be a useful fantasy contributor so don’t completely disregard him. He is only two years removed from a 30/30 season and has been plagued by injuries the last two seasons. … I expect Span to raise his batting average back to .290-.300, but he brings no power to the table. … Swisher enjoyed himself a fine season in 2010 and while the power (29 HR and 180 R/RBI) is legit the average (.288) might be harder to replicate. Then again, he did change his approach last season.

Tier 5

Austin Jackson (DET), Raul Ibanez (PHI), Magglio Ordonez (DET), Dexter Fowler (COL), Rajai Davis (TOR), Travis Snider (TOR), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Andres Torres (SF), Julio Borbon (TEX), Manny Ramirez (TB), Jose Tabata (PIT), Marlon Byrd (CHC), Chris Coghlan (FLA), J.D.Drew (BOS)

Jackson had a ridiculous .396 BABIP and still only managed a .293 batting average. Not a good sign. … The term post-hype sleeper applies here with Snider as he should get the starting right field job. Last year he hit 14 home runs in just 319 at-bats. … In 2010, Borbon stole four fewer bases in 289 more at-bats. He’s going to have to step up the running if he is going to have any fantasy value. … We have Ramirez‘s projection covered in our 2011 Tampa Bay Rays preview. … Tabata is only 22-years old and is quickly becoming one of Pittsburgh’s many young, bright stars.

Read full story · Comments { 1 }

May 10: Kerry Wood to Close Again, Jason Heyward Hopes for Tuesday Return, and Ross Ohlendorf Back with Bucs

By on May 10, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Anyone see Dallas Braden‘s perfect game coming? Probably not. How about today’s Fantasy Headlines? I hope so! Here they are for Monday, May 10:

  • Chipper Jones hopes to return to the lineup today after missing yesterday’s game with a sore groin.
  • Another injured Brave – Jason Heyward – thinks he’ll be ready to go full-time again on Tuesday.
  • Kerry Wood will b Cleveland’s closer again starting on Tuesday.
  • Rockies’ outfielder Carlos Gonzalez will miss Monday’s game and return Tuesday as he returns to Venezuela to attend a funeral.
  • Torii Hunter is expected to go today after struggling to run yesterday with a bruise above his knee.
  • Minnesota second baseman Orlando Hudson missed Sunday’s game with a sore shoulder but shouldn’t miss another game.
  • New York’s Wild Thing Oliver Perez is soon to be in jeopardy of losing his rotation spot if his command doesn’t improve.
  • Ross Ohlendorf returns for the Bucs today after missing a month due to back spasms.
  • Matt Holliday has missed the last two games with a sore groin, but manager Tony LaRussa said it was precautionary as weather conditions made the outfield slick and more conducive to re-injury.
  • The Rangers Nelson Cruz is set to start rehab and be back when he’s first eligible on Thursday.
Read full story · Comments { 0 }
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • About BaseballProf
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Contact
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009