Once all the excitement subsides surrounding the Marlins’ first real free agent splash, there are two realizations all Miami fans will have:

1. Jose Reyes misses a lot of time hamstrung by his hamstrings
2. That sparkling .337 average is a thing of the past

We still don’t know how the new ballpark will play, but my guess is it’ll be more hitter friendly than Citi Field. Over the last three seasons Reyes has averaged just 10 home runs per 150 games but in the prior three seasons when he called Shea Stadium home, Reyes averaged 15 home runs per 150 games. Of course, injuries over the last three seasons have probably robbed him of some power here and there, but that 33 percent decrease from Shea to Citi is significant. Reyes should see his home run rate improve in the new stadium.

The good news for Miami fans and Reyes owners alike is that the .337 average we saw last season wasn’t only fueled by luck; Reyes improved both his strikeout rate and walk rates. His 7.0 percent strikeout rate was easily a new single-season best (career 10.5%) and his 7.3 percent walk rate was higher than his career rate (6.9%).

Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison (if LoMo isn’t traded) also represent an upgrade over what Reyes had behind him in New York. Speaking of Ramirez, he’s the one who really benefits here from a fantasy standpoint. With Reyes at shortstop, Ramirez is forced to change positions to third base. With shortstop and third base two of the weakest fantasy positions, having eligibility at both for the foreseeable future is a boon to his value.

And Ramirez finally has someone ahead of him worth driving him. Last season Ramirez struggled badly, but even if he was at full strength his numbers would have suffered with the duo of Chris Coghlan and Emilio Bonifacio manning the leadoff spot and Omar Infante the team’s number two hitter. Reyes and Infante at one and two is much better.

And if Albert Pujols accepts the reported 10-year deal the Marlins are offering, things can only get better in South Beach.

First, here’s the good news. Sizemore’s strikeout rate (21.1%) and line drive rate (20.0%) are both sustainable given his career averages. For the most part, this means that he should continue putting the ball in play at the same rate we’ve seen over his first eight games and his average should only drop as a result of luck (that .455 BABIP will probably end up around .300).

Now, the not-so-good news. Sizemore’s fly ball rate (60.0%) is astronomical and his HR/FB rate (20.0%) is well above his previous career high (14.5%). This means Sizemore is hitting more fly balls than usual, and a higher percentage of those fly balls are leaving the yard. Granted, he only has three homers on the season, but don’t try and extrapolate that pace over a full season and expect 35-plus bombs. It’s not going to happen. Even in a full season of at-bats, Sizemore is probably more of a mid-to-high 20s guy.

Given his likely low batting average (career .274 with three straight years under that mark) and questionable stolen base output as a result of the injuries he has sustained, is it worth trading for a hot bat that contributes in only a couple categories and is probably overhyped right now? My guess is no. If you have Sizemore I would actively try to trade him, and if someone approached me with Sizemore I’d politely listen to what he was selling before passing on the offer. I don’t want any part of an injury-prone player who’s falsely regarded as a 20/20 threat. It’s not happening.

Three Up

Melky Cabrera, OF, KC - 3-for-4, HR, SB, 2 R, 2 RBI

Wilson Ramos, C, WAS – 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI

Adam Lind, 1B, TOR – 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 R, 5 RBI

Three Down

Colby Rasmus, OF, STL – 0-for-5, K, 4 LOB

Matt Harrison, SP, TEX – 3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, K

Marlon Byrd, OF, CHC – 0-for-4, 3 K, 4 LOB

Notes:

• After about a month those Carl Crawford or Ryan Braun debates seem sort of pointless. Of course, Crawford could outperform Braun over the last five months of the season, but have you actually seen how awesome Braun has been? He hit his ninth homer of the season on Tueday and has 20-plus runs and RBI, too. Perhaps best of all, his walk rate is more than double his career average (15.5% to 7.5%) which tells me he’s seeing the ball incredibly well and is waiting for his pitches. If you don’t have Braun you likely won’t be able to get him right now, and if you do have him you likely aren’t selling him after this start, but I thought it was worth noting. That’s what this section is for after all…las notas.
• Sorry, Jed Lowrie, but Matt Holliday is the only qualified player still batting over .400. Unfortunately he’s only had one home run and two RBI over his last eight games, but he is batting .375 with seven runs scored over that span. The rest will come.
• Break up the Florida Marlins! With three straight wins, the Team That Should be in Vegas has seized the top spot in the NL East with the latest win coming courtesy of Chris Volstad‘s first quality start of the season. Leo Nunez already has seven saves and is putting together another good season, Mike Stanton has rebounded from that funk he was in and Hanley Ramirez had his first two-hit game since April 14. Overall, every Marlins’ pitcher has been fantastic as long as their last name doesn’t begin with a V (Volstad, Javier Vazquez) and I expect one of them *cough* Volstad *cough* to be rosterable in fantasy leagues.

The Marlins will undoubtedly provide some fantasy treasure but beware of the players who turn out to be fool’s gold. To help determine which players to draft and which to avoid, here is a preview of the 2011 Florida Marlins.

Guys I Like

Hanley Ramirez, SS – You already know that Ramirez is worthy of an early first round pick but is he worthy of the number one overall pick? I say yes and here’s why. Say you take Albert Pujols with the first pick and then nab Elvis Andrus later on to be your shortstop (ADP 80.2). But then you realize you could have taken Kendry Morales (ADP 75.7) instead of Andrus if you had taken Ramirez over Pujols earlier. Now tell me with a straight face that you would rather have Pujols/Andrus than Ramirez/Morales. I know I most certainly take the latter.

Josh Johnson, SP – Johnson might have the best pure stuff in the National League but his durability will always be in question. It’s tough to project 200 innings from him but when he does pitch you can expect a sub-three ERA, a low WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Johnson as my number one starter but if he’s your number two, consider yourself lucky.

Mike Stanton, OF – Stanton’s power is jaw-dropping. At 20 years old he hit 22 home runs in a mere 359 at-bats. His slugging percentage was .507 and his ISO was .248. The only troubling sign for Stanton is his propensity to strikeout which does not bode well for his batting average. The good news is that his walk rate was a healthy 8.6 percent last year and he has a reputation of being a fast learner. It’s entirely possible that Stanton hits 35 home runs this year and approaches 100 RBI.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B – Last year, Sanchez batted .273 with 19 home runs and 85 RBI. Not bad for a first baseman, but even better considering he was a rookie. He showed exceptional command of the strike zone for a young player with a walk rate of 8.9 percent and a strikeout rate of 17.7 percent. Sanchez has the ability to develop more power as some of the 37 doubles he hit last year could translate into a few more home runs.

Ricky Nolasco, SP – Count me as part of Nolasco’s dwindling fan club. Despite two straight disappointing seasons his xFIP was 3.28 in 2009 and 3.55 in 2010. Nolasco is also developing pin-point control, lowering his walks per nine innings from 2.14 to 1.88. If he can harness some of that control and turn it into command, then he’s sure to cut down on the home runs that have been plaguing him. Add in over eight strikeouts per nine innings and Nolasco is someone I’m hoping to get on the cheap.

Guys I Don’t Like

Javier Vazquez, SP – Be careful not to blindly draft Vazquez thinking that the move to the National League will bring instant success. If Vazquez can’t find the velocity on his fastball (88.7 MPH last year vs. 91.1 MPH the year before) then he’s not likely to be any more effective than he was with the Yankees.

Chris Coghlan, OF – If only he were still a second baseman. Some will remember Coghlan’s 2009 rookie of the year campaign and draft him with confidence but really, he’s not that valuable as an outfielder. He hasn’t hit double digit home runs or stolen more than 10 bases in either of his first two years and his batting average plummeted all the way down to .268 last year. The only way Coghlan provides a lot of value is if he can bat north of .320 but he’ll be lucky to top .300.

John Buck, C – The power is real. Even though Buck hit 20 home runs, the most of his career, neither his home run to fly ball ratio of 14.7% percent or ISO of .208 were career highs. The reason I don’t like Buck this year is because there is no way he’s going to duplicate a .281 batting average. His abnormally high batting average was propelled by a .335 BABIP – too high for someone with a line drive percentage of only 16.1 percent. Since Buck’s isn’t exactly fleet of foot, I think it’s safe to say that his batting average was mostly a product of luck.

Sleeper

Logan Morrison, OF – George Fitopoulos already hyped him up so I won’t go into detail here but suffice to say, we both believe his plate discipline will lead to early success, making Morrison a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

If you stopped paying close attention to baseball in mid-summer you might have missed Raburn’s impressive second half stats. After playing sporadically prior to the All-Star break, Raburn batted a robust .315 with 13 home runs and 46 RBI after the break, earning himself more playing time in the process. Although Raburn only had 371 at-bats on the year, he still managed to hit 15 home runs. He hit a HR every 24.7 at-bats, which was more frequent than Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley. Even more impressive, Raburn hit a HR every 16.3 at-bats in 2009. With that proven power stroke imagine what he can do in a full season.

Raburn reminds me a little bit of Ben Zobrist prior to the 2009 season. If you recall, Zobrist was also a super utility-type player who had shown flashes of power in limited playing time. He was finally given 500-plus at-bats in 2009 and clubbed 27 home runs. Raburn can have that type of impact. Also like Zobrist, Raburn has multi-position eligibility. In addition to being an outfielder, Raburn qualifies at second base, playing 18 games there in 2010. The comparisons stop there, however. Zobrist is a base stealer while Raburn is not, but Raburn will hit for a better average. Over the past two years Raburn has notched a .285 average in 632 at-bats.

It will be interested to see where Raburn bats in the Tigers lineup. He actually batted third for the majority of his at-bats last year but that is unlikely to happen again with the acquisition of Victor Martinez. He’ll most likely hit either second (where he will rack up plenty of runs) or sixth where he will have ample opportunities to drive in Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez. Regardless of where he hits, it will be a favorable spot.

Raburn is a must-buy if you’re bargain hunting at the end of your draft. He will be a welcome addition to your outfield but he will provide the most value at second base. With great power for a middle infielder and no weakness other than steals, you’ll turn a nice profit from a minimal investment.

2011 Fantasy Projection

82 R | .283 AVG | 24 HR | 86 RBI | 5 SB

Enter Justin Upton and Alex Rios.

Upton is one of baseball’s top young players. It’s no surprise then that when Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers put his name on the trading block a few months back almost every team made an offer. Towers wisely pulled him off the block after he realized he couldn’t risk trading away someone as talented as Upton. Rios had a career year in his first full season with the White Sox. He’ll look to continue to prove that his disastrous season in 2009, in which the Blue Jays placed him on waivers and didn’t even demand a player in return, was an anomaly.

Today we’ll decide which outfielder should be drafted first.

Each player is assigned a grade for each of the five standard offensive categories plus a few extra I felt were important to factor. Grades are based on my expectations for the season and take into account both the player’s expected performance relative to the entire player pool and relative to the position he plays at. Grades were averaged using the standard 4.0 GPA scale to provide a cumulative “Professor’s Grade.”

Category	Justin Upton	Alex Rios	Edge?
Professor's Grade	3.34 (B+)	3.24 (B)	Upton
Runs	B+	B+	Draw
Batting Average	B+	B+	Draw
Home Runs	A-	B	Upton
Runs Batted In	A-	B	Upton
Stolen Bases	B	B+	Rios
Health	B-	A-	Rios
Potential Ceiling	A	B	Upton
Pick Security	B	B+	Rios

The Case for Upton

After batting .300 with 26 HR and 20 SB in 2009, Upton was destined for stardom in 2010. Unfortunately, he failed to reach 20 HR or 20 SB and saw his batting average dip to .273 before a shoulder injury forced him to miss most of September.

It’s easy to forget that Upton is still just 23 years old. The former number one overall pick has all the tools you look for in an elite fantasy player. Not counting the freakishly strong Mike Stanton, Upton has the most power of any major leaguer under the age of 24. He’s also athletic enough to steal 20-plus bases, a feat he has already accomplished in his young career. As if that’s not tantalizing enough, he’ll be batting out of the three-hole in a hitter’s ballpark.

Despite Upton’s disappointing stats last year, there were signs of encouragement. His walk rate was 11.2 percent, up from 9.4 percent in his breakout 2009 season. It’s rare for a player as young as Upton to show such a knack for drawing walks and it will only help increase his R and SB potential. Upton also improved his line drive rate and GB/FB ratio which bodes well for an increase in power and batting average.

The sky is the limit for Upton and he certainly has the potential to produce first round numbers.

The Case for Rios

Rios truly is a five category producer. He was one of three players to reach 20 HR and 30 SB with Hanley Ramirez and Drew Stubbs being the others. It was the second time Rios reached both of those marks and the first time he did so in the same season. Rios is also one of the few power speed players that won’t hurt your batting average. If you take out his 2009 season, Rios hasn’t batted less than .284 since 2005. Furthermore, Rios plays in a hitter friendly lineup. He’s surrounded by talented players such as Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez. While he doesn’t have the same potential as Upton, he has shown more consistency and durability.

Who Should I Draft?

Upton and Rios are close in value but I believe Upton is the better pick. From the chart above you can see that they each have the advantage in three categories but Upton has the better overall grade. You can also see that Upton has a distinct power advantage, a skill set that is becoming harder to find. The only real categorical advantage that Rios has is speed, but Upton will still contribute there for you. While Rios is definitely a safe pick due to his consistency, Upton’s potential is far too great to ignore. He’s already one of the best young players in the game and has much room to grow.

It’s for that reason that I’m taking Upton over Rios.

But here’s a better idea: Draft Travis Snider instead.

After spending parts of three seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, Snider heads into the 2011 season as the team’s unquestioned starting right fielder. Still just 23 years old, the former first round pick is on the cusp of justifying his once top prospect status.

Power is Snider’s calling card. In 612 career major league at-bats he has slugged 25 home runs. Last year he smacked 14 homers in only 298 at-bats, good for an AB/HR ratio of 21.3. To put that in perspective, Snider hit home runs at a more frequent rate than Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley.

Snider’s ISO last year was an impressive .208, which was better than Braun, Ramirez and Utley and just .01 less than former home-run king Prince Fielder.

We know Snider can hit for power, but will he be a drain on your batting average? The answer is no. While he batted only .255 last year, it wasn’t for lack of solid contact. Nearly one quarter (24.3%) of his hits were line drives, which ranked third among players with at least 300 plate appearances. Snider is also a career .302 hitter in the minor leagues, with a career .339 batting average in Triple-A so the track record is there. And even though Snider is a lefty, there’s no need to worry about how he’ll fare against southpaws. Last year he hit left-handed pitchers nearly as well as he did right-handers.

If you’re not quite a believer in Snider’s talents just yet, check out how he finished his season in the month of September: .304 AVG| 13 R | 6 HR | 9 RBI | 2 SB.

I expect Snider’s strong finish last season to carry over to this year. With another year of experience and a full season of at-bats under his belt he’s destined to become a good source of power that won’t hurt your batting average in the process. The RBI opportunities will be there as well with Rajai Davis, Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista and Adam Lind hitting in front of him. And he might even steal a few bases.

As you approach the end of your draft, remember there’s little reason to draft an aging player with a declining skill set over a young player like Snider who is on the verge of breaking out.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.279 AVG | 72 R | 26 HR | 81 RBI | 7 SB

Tier 1

Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Troy Tulowitzki (COL)

No surprise here. Since 2006 Ramirez has been the best shortstop in the game and isn’t ready to relinquish that title just yet. … Tulowitzki provides rare power at the shortstop position, which is why he has entered the conversation for best shortstop in fantasy baseball. … Check out our 2011 fantasy baseball debate between these two for more perspective.

Tier 2

Jose Reyes (NYM), Derek Jeter (NYY), Alexei Ramirez (CHW), Elvis Andrus (TEX), Jimmy Rollins (PHI), Stephen Drew (ARI)

We have a pair of unknowns at the top of this tier. Will Reyes get back to 50+ steals and stay healthy for a full season? Is Jeter finally showing his age in his 16th full season? ... Ramirez is a frustrating, streaky hitter, but at the end of the year his power/speed combo (18 HR/13 SB) is hard to beat. … Not many have the stolen base potential that Andrus possesses and if he can continue to improve his ability to get on base, a 50-steal season isn’t far away. … Rollins has been plagued with injuries and bad luck the past two years, but he’s only 32 so don’t give up on him just yet. … We’ve been waiting for Drew to break out, but maybe he’s just a slightly above-average shortstop.

Tier 3

Rafael Furcal (LAD), Ian Desmond (WAS), Starlin Castro (CHC), Yunel Escobar (TOR), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (MIN), Jason Bartlett (SD)

Health has always been the issue for Furcal, but it was nice to see him running again last year (22 SB in 97 games). … Desmond showed some nice power/speed (10 HR/17 SB) in his rookie year and should build on it. … Castro enjoyed a fine season in 2010 (.300 AVG and 10 SB), but you’ve already seen his ceiling. … The Blue Jays are building a nice offense north of the border and Escobar turned his season around after joining the team at the trade deadline last year. … Nishioka is an unknown, but he was a high-average hitter with speed in Japan. … Look for Bartlett to return to fantasy relevance with the full-time gig in San Diego. His speed is legit.

Tier 4

Omar Infante (FLA), Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE), Mike Aviles (KC), Juan Uribe (LAD), Alex Gonzalez (ATL), J.J. Hardy (BAL), Reid Brignac (TB), Jed Lowrie (BOS), Ryan Theriot (STL), Miguel Tejada (SF), Marco Scutaro (BOS)

Injuries derailed Cabrera‘s season last year, but he can bring a .300 batting average and close to 20 steals. … Aviles was a rare bright spot for the Royals last year (.304 AVG, 8 HR, 14 SB in 110 games), but couldn’t find regular playing time. He’s slated to start at third, but top prospect Mike Moustakas might have something to say about that come June. … Not a big fan of Uribe‘s climbing age and move to a pitcher’s park. … I don’t think you’ll be talking about Gonzalez in 2011, unless you like talking about disappointing players. … Hardy needs to go back to doing whatever he was doing in 2008 (.283 AVG, 22 HR). … Brignac showed some pop (8 HR in 326 PA) last year, which earned him the full-time gig this year. … While Scutaro is the starter now, don’t be surprised if Lowrie steals a lot of at-bats from him during the season.

Round 1

Bryan: Last season, Ramirez had an ADP of 2.4 in ESPN leagues. He was coming off a great 2009 season in which he batted .342/.410/.543 with 24 homers and 23 steals. Florida had finally bumped him back to third in the lineup, and he rewarded the Marlins with 106 RBI. We all expected more of the same in 2010, but Ramirez disappointed with sub-par RBI production. All players, except Albert Pujols, of course, hit speed bumps in their professional careers, and if 2010 is Ramirez’s speed bump—and his career numbers show us no reason to think it was anything other than that—then the most electric shortstop in the game will be the best fantasy option at the position once again.

George: While it’s clear that these two are tops among shortstops, Tulowitzki has one big advantage over his counterpart—home field. In his six-year career, Tulowitzki has batted .312/.383/.544 at Coors Field, and his home/road power splits (.213 ISO/.179 ISO) show that he hits for power no matter where he plays. In a year where a lot of hitters disappointed, Tulowitzki actually exceeded expectation despite missing a month with a broken wrist. And now that he is staying in Colorado through the 2020 season, he should continue to meet them for years to come.

Round 2

Bryan: I’m with you on one point, George. If you’re fortunate enough to have one of these two shortstops on your roster, you already have a significant advantage over the rest of your league. No other position offers such a gap between the elite and the near-elite, and no matter how much you love Jose Reyes, Alexei Ramirez, Derek Jeter or any other shortstop, you’d be lying if you said anyone else was even in Hanley and Tulo’s class. However, with Tulowitzki’s spotty injury history (122 games last year and just 102 in 2008), I consider it far too big of a risk to go with one of baseball’s newest $100 million men. Give me Ramirez’s average 152 games per season every time.

George: Take a quick look at Tulo’s injury history and you’ll realize that they are fluke injuries that have no ill-effect on how he presently plays. In 2008, he had his worst offensive season as a pro while missing 42 games with a torn tendon in his left quadriceps and then 16 days after he gashed his hand open on a broken bat. He showed no lingering issues in 2009, where he enjoyed his best offensive season. Last year, Tulo fractured his wrist and missed 33 games, but after about a month his power returned and he hit 14 home runs in September. It’s safe to say that Tulo has no lingering injury issues that owners need to worry about come draft day.

Round 3

Bryan: To say Tulo has no lingering injury issues might be a stretch, but point taken. Still, if consistency is your thing, you’ll be hard-pressed to find more consistently great numbers those put up by Ramirez. In 2007, 2008 and 2009 he had OPSs of .948, .940 and .953, respectively, he’s stolen between 27 and 35 bases in each of the last three seasons, he’s batted at least .300 in four straight seasons, his K:BB ratio has remained stable and his strikeout rate in 2010 was the lowest its been since 2007. Tulo’s torrid September makes him the better choice if you subscribe to the “What have you done for me lately?” school of thought, but I’m a proponent of “What have you consistently done for me over the last few seasons since you’re just entering your prime?” It would probably be more popular if it had a better name.

George: If it’s the last couple of seasons you want to look at, then we can talk about Ramirez’s declining ISO (from .239 to .175) over the last three years. When it comes to shortstops, power is where these two players really separate themselves from the rest of the group as only four hit more than 20 home runs last season. The only season Ramirez hit over 30 home runs, his 19.2 HR/FB% was much higher than his career average (13.4%), which suggests that he was lucky. If Ramirez’s power doesn’t return to a near-30 form, there is no major difference between him and Tulowitzki. I would rather take the player who excels more in home runs, rather than the one who will win out in steals. Also, in keeper leagues it should be noted that while Tulo is a perennial gold glove threat at shortstop, Ramirez is an average fielder at best and could be moved to the outfield and lose his position eligibility.

Nevertheless, we still saw the closest thing to a complete game shutout from Roy Halladay and a nice MLB debut from first-round pick Mike Leake. Without further delay, let’s delve into what took place Sunday afternoon.

Sunday’s best: Roy Halladay (PHI) – 9 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Sunday’s worst: David Ortiz (BOS)- 0-for-4, 4 K, 5 LOB

Tigers 9, Indians 8

• Travis Hafner has hit safely in five of the Indians six games and has knocked in a run in three straight games. If his shoulder holds up he should be a nice source of cheap power.
• Chris Perez blew his first save of the season but his job is safe for now. … Magglio Ordonez continued his hot hitting by collecting two more hits and knocking in two runs.
• Austin Jackson now has three multi-hit games on the season.
• Justin Verlander pitched poorly for the second consecutive start. Hopefully he’s not feeling the effects of the 240 innings he pitched last year.

Marlins 6, Dodgers 5

• Knuckleballer Charlie Haeger struck out 12 Marlins in six innings, but he did walk four batters. Control will always be a problem for Haeger so he’s still not a matchups play at this point. … Jorge Cantu, who has an RBI in every game this season, drove in five on Sunday and hit his second home run of the season.
• Cameron Maybin is hitting in a very favorable spot in the Marlins lineup. He’s protected by Hanley Ramirez and also has Cantu and Dan Uggla hitting behind him. If he can get on base, expect a lot of runs out of him this year.

Nationals 5, Mets 2

• Josh Willingham belted a homer and drove in five runs. He did have 24 home runs last year in only 427 at bats.
• Jeff Francoeur raised his average to .476 with two hits. Don’t overlook him, after all he did hit .311 with 10 home runs in 75 games for the Mets last year.
• Johan Santana failed to build off of his first start of the season, letting up five runs in five innings while only striking out three batters.

Reds 3, Cubs 1

• Mike Leake, Cincinnati’s first round pick a year ago, pitched pretty well in his major league debut. He pitched 6 2/3 innings, surrendering only one run and striking out five batters. The only blemishes were the seven walks, which is expected from a young pitcher. Don’t rush out to add him yet, but he makes a pretty nice matchups play.
• Geovany Soto’s struggles continue and while the signs have not been encouragins so far, I still like him for a bounce back this year.

Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2

• Shaun Marcum pitched well again for the Jays and if he’s on your waiver wire pick him up now.
• Brian Roberts was not in the lineup for the second straight game and his strained abdominal muscle could force him to the DL.

Yankees 7, Rays 3

• Curtis Granderson collected two more hits and stole his third base of the year. This looks like it could be a monster year for New York’s new center fielder.
• At least A.J. Burnett got the win because he only struck out one batter. You likely won’t see that again from him.
• Tough game for B.J. Upton as he went 0-for-3 and stranded six men on base.
• Jason Bartlett continues to prove he’s a good source of average, runs and stolen bases, however, I’d like to see him repeat last year’s power performance before I fully trust him.

Phillies 2, Astros 1

• Cy, I mean Roy Halladay pitched a complete game letting up no earned runs and striking out eight batters. He will have a better year than Tim Lincecum. Mark it down.
• Roy Oswalt looked good, striking out eight Phillies in six innings and only letting up two runs. He appears healthy at the moment but the injury bug could bite him at any time.

White Sox 5, Twins 4

• Denard Span continues to struggle at the plate but don’t do anything rash like drop him. If you don’t have him maybe send a low-ball offer for him just in case his owner is of the impatient type.
• The criminally underrated Paul Konerko slugged his third home run of the season.
• Gordon Beckham hit his first home run of the season and is poised to take the next step.

Red Sox 8, Royals 6

• Jacoby Ellsbury left the game holding his ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre. X-rays came back negative but expect him to miss the next game or two.
• Speaking of Beltre, he raised his average to .400 with three hits.
• David Ortiz put on the Golden Sombrero Sunday afternoon going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. With Mike Lowell and Jeremy Hermida on the bench, Ortiz doesn’t have as long a leash as he had last year.
• Gil Meche came off the DL and pitched a stinker. Watch him in his next few starts to see if he shows improvement before picking him up.

Rangers 9, Mariners 2

• Franklin Gutierrez continues his hot hitting and should see plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the meat of the Mariners’ lineup.
• Vladimir Guerrero is now batting .500 on the season after another multi-hit game.
• Scott Feldman pitched seven innings again, surrendering only one run and striking out four batters. Last year was not a fluke.

Rockies 4, Padres 2

• Chase Headley had two more hits on Sunday to bring his average up to .440. A former top prospect, Headley looks primed for a breakout season now that he’s back at his familiar position at third base.
• Miguel Olivo hit his second home run of the season and is clearly outperforming Chris Iannetta at this point of the season.

Athletics 9, Angels 4

• Jake Fox got the start at catcher for Oakland. If/when he gets catcher eligibility he is definitely someone to add.
• Dallas Braden didn’t strike out 10 batters this time but he did have a quality start and got the win.
• Brandon Wood went hitless again so look for Maicer Izturis to start stealing some at bats in the immediate future.

Giants 6, Braves 3

• Jason Heyward hit his third home run in his big league career. Let’s face it. This kid is going to be great, but temper your expectations this year and don’t count on 30 home runs or a .300 average in 2010.
• Pablo Sandoval hit his first home run of the season and could approach 30 this year.

Diambacks 15, Pirates 6

• Lastings Milledge batted third for the Pirates and responded with three hits. Reports are that he has learned a lot in the maturity department from Andrew McCutchen and if he continues to show progress, he could become a classic post-hype sleeper.
• Chris Young and Kelly Johnson both hit their third home runs of the season. It looks like these guys are becoming fantasy relevant once again.

Brewers 8, Cardinals 7

• Ryan Ludwick batted second again for the Cardinals as if looks like Tony LaRussa will continue to do this against lefties.
• Albert Pujols hit two more home runs and drove in in four runs. I’m pretty sure he really is a machine. … Rickie Weeks hit his second home run of the season. He is now batting .368 with six runs and four RBI.
• Trevor Hoffman blew his second consecutive save. Although Texas and Baltimore have already made closing changes, Hoffman won’t lose his job considering he is seven saves away from 600. Todd Coffey is next in line for saves if something were to happen to Hoffman.

The other day, ESPN released some of their fantasy experts’ predictions for 2010. We recapped a few of these projections in Part 1 of this mini-series, and today we pick it back up with Part 2.

The AL Cy Young

Matthew Berry: Felix Hernandez
Eric Karabell: Jon Lester
Christopher Harris: Jon Lester
Jason Grey: Felix Hernandez
Pierre Becquey: Justin Verlander
A.J. Mass: Felix Hernandez
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Felix Hernandez

My Take: If you remember from my article on Who Will Be the Next Zack Greinke, Jon Lester is one of my favorite candidates. Verlander also cracked the list of pitchers poised for a Cy Young season since both of them had two of the three necessary conditions for breakout status: H/9 below 8.0, BB/9 below 3.0, and K/9 above 6.0. The man who garnered the most expert votes, Felix Hernandez, actually accomplished all three last season. After breaking into the majors at only 18 years of age, Hernandez has finally become the ace everyone expected. While Lester is a great candidate on a very good team, there are lots of other SP on that squad that could steal the show. It’s tough to imagine Greinke will be able to repeat his unbelievable performance, and with Halladay out of the AL, the stiffest competition is gone. Sabathia and Verlander both have a good shot, but I’m going with Hernandez.

The NL Cy Young

Matthew Berry: Tim Lincecum
Eric Karabell: Roy Halladay
Christopher Harris: Tim Lincecum
Jason Grey: Tim Lincecum
Pierre Becquey: Johan Santana
A.J. Mass: Matt Cain
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Tim Lincecum

My Take: Cockcroft also nominated Tommy Hanson as his dark-horse candidate, which means a total of five names were thrown into the pool by seven experts. Lincecum has won two in a row, Halladay won one back in 2003, and Santana has two himself (’04 and ’06) as well as three other top-five finishes. Throw into the mix Matt Cain, who had a career year in 2009, and Hanson, who ignored the usual rookie struggles, and you have a pretty wide open NL Cy Young race. Oh, and don’t forget about Brandon Webb, owner of a sparkling 3.27 career ERA, one Cy Young award (2006), and two second-place finishes. And in case you didn’t notice, his teammate, Dan Haren, is pretty good himself. That list doesn’t even begin to touch upon the handful of potential surprise pitchers (like Yovani Gallardo) who could suddenly put everything together. So how are we supposed to pick a Cy Young winner from a pool this large? It’s tough, but I’m going with Roy Halladay. He’s always been a ground ball pitcher with a career-worst GB:FB ratio of 1.71 (2009), so a move to Citizen Bank Park shouldn’t affect him too much, and facing NL lineups will only make him that much more devastating.

The AL Rookie of the Year

Matthew Berry: Scott Sizemore (DET)
Eric Karabell: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Christopher Harris: Austin Jackson (DET)
Jason Grey: Scott Sizemore (DET)
Pierre Becquey: Brett Wallace (TOR)
A.J. Mass: Desmond Jennings (TB)
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Brian Matusz (BAL)

My Take: Rookie of the Year is always the toughest to pick, and with Opening Day still over three months away a lot can change. We’ll throw a bunch of names at the wall and see what sticks since playing time is clearly the most crucial factor. As far as Scott Sizemore goes, Tigers’ GM, Dave Dombrowski, has already said, “We expect him to be our second baseman. We have not changed on Sizemore.” Another Tiger, Austin Jackson, is already slated to be getting the start on Opening Day as well. Carlos Santana can hit, but there’s a lot of people vying for that starting role in Cleveland. Brett Wallace is the newest Blue Jay, but playing time there is going to be tough to come by, and from everything I have heard, Jays’ manager Cito Gaston likes to stick with his veterans. Like Wallace and Santana, Desmond Jennings may find playing time hard to come by early on, so I’d rather pick a player who already has a good shot at a starting job. Brian Matusz is an interesting pick, and I’ll throw in his teammate, Chris Tillman, too. Of all the players mentioned here, though, I like Scott Sizemore’s chances the most. He already has the starting job (or so it seems), and he was nearly a 20/20 player in the minors last season, batting .303 with 17 HR, 66 RBI, and 21 SB. They felt comfortable enough to part with Polanco and haven’t made a run at Orlando Hudson, so I’m going to show as much confidence in Sizemore as they have.

The NL Rookie of the Year

Matthew Berry: Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Eric Karabell: Buster Posey (SF)
Christopher Harris: Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Jason Grey: Buster Posey (SF)
Pierre Becquey: Jason Heyward (ATL)
A.J. Mass:  Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Jason Heyward (ATL)

My Take: It sure seems as if there will be a lot more high-end rookie talent on display in the National League in 2010. The Giants are letting Bengie Molina go so they can hand the pitching staff over to 23-year old Buster Posey, the Braves will do whatever they can to give Jason Heyward every chance to win a starting OF job, and you all know the tale of the stupendous Stephen Strasburg. In truth, any of that trio could not only win Rookie of the Year, but they could become fantasy superstars by season’s end. Who is my pick to win the award, though? Mr. Jason Heyward. He has been touted as the next Ken Griffey Jr., and even if that is a bit much, consider his minor league resume: .318/.391/.508 with 164 R, 29 HR, 125 RBI, 26 SB and a solid 138:105 K:BB ratio in 1003 PA. Oh, and he’s only 20 years old! The kid is going to be a superstar, and I think it starts immediately.

The Fantasy Baseball MVP (best value for draft position)

Matthew Berry: Erik Bedard
Eric Karabell: Matt Wieters
Christopher Harris: Tommy Hanson
Jason Grey: Wade Davis
Pierre Becquey: Jason Heyward
A.J. Mass: Nyjer Morgan
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Jay Bruce

My Take: Whichever player wins this award, we can be sure he is one of three things: a guy finally realizing his immense potential (think Kendry Morales), a guy who has an inexplicably good season (think Ben Zobrist), or a guy coming back from injury (think Victor Martinez). All of the above selections have definite merit and as you will realize in coming weeks, I am a HUGE Matt Wieters fan (call me crazy, but I’m keeping him in my 10-team, 5-player keeper league). In the interest of throwing out a few more names, consider Brandon Webb and Diasuke Matsuzaka. According to Mock Draft Central, Webb was taken in the 11th round and Matsuzaka in the 12th round. Let’s not forget how fantastic Webb was in the years prior to last season. Earlier today, Rotoworld.com released a quote from Webb: “I’m hoping to go in and have a normal spring training. If we don’t make the playoffs and I’m not a Cy Young candidate, I’ll be disappointed.” As for Matsuzaka, he had a 18 W, a 2.90 ERA, and 8.3 K/9 in 2008 before the World Baseball Classic affected his conditioning regimen in ’09. He’s back and ready to go. As for hitters, Wieters was mentioned, but I also like Ian Stewart a lot. He had a 92/.313/30/101/19 season back in the minors (2004) and with Garrett Atkins gone, he will finally get the full-time job. Since he’s going in the 12th round, I think it’s a pretty good risk to take. One other guy to make note of is Corey Hart. He had back-to-back 20/20 seasons in ’07 and ’08, but since the All-Star Break in 2008 he has been pretty disappointing. With a draft position in the 160s on Mock Draft Central, here’s to hoping he puts it all together again.

The Highest Rated Player on Player Rater (ESPN has their system, but we like what we’ve done with PSR)

Matthew Berry: Hanley Ramirez
Eric Karabell: Tim Lincecum
Christopher Harris: Albert Pujols
Jason Grey: Albert Pujols
Pierre Becquey: Albert Pujols
A.J. Mass: Albert Pujols
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Albert Pujols

My Take: Pujols will be the highest rated player if position scarcity isn’t factored in. No one does what he does as well as he does, so according to ESPN’s formula, it will be Pujols. According to our formula, which of course does factor in position scarcity (I mean how can you not?) it will be Hanley Ramirez. And don’t give me any of that “Joe Mauer is awesome!” crap. He’s good, but not on Hanley’s level.