Tag Archives | Hanley Ramirez

Fantasy Impact: Reyes to Miami Great News for Han-Ram Owners

By on December 6, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

UPDATE: After posting this piece we all received news from Ramirez that he doesn’t really want to play in Miami anymore. Assuming he’s traded that means the third base eligibility I get into below likely won’t materialize. You can probably go back to how you valued Ramirez previously, but only do so after you read his hilariously self-centered tweet.

Once all the excitement subsides surrounding the Marlins’ first real free agent splash, there are two realizations all Miami fans will have:

  1. Jose Reyes misses a lot of time hamstrung by his hamstrings
  2. That sparkling .337 average is a thing of the past

We still don’t know how the new ballpark will play, but my guess is it’ll be more hitter friendly than Citi Field. Over the last three seasons Reyes has averaged just 10 home runs per 150 games but in the prior three seasons when he called Shea Stadium home, Reyes averaged 15 home runs per 150 games. Of course, injuries over the last three seasons have probably robbed him of some power here and there, but that 33 percent decrease from Shea to Citi is significant. Reyes should see his home run rate improve in the new stadium.

The good news for Miami fans and Reyes owners alike is that the .337 average we saw last season wasn’t only fueled by luck; Reyes improved both his strikeout rate and walk rates. His 7.0 percent strikeout rate was easily a new single-season best (career 10.5%) and his 7.3 percent walk rate was higher than his career rate (6.9%).

Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison (if LoMo isn’t traded) also represent an upgrade over what Reyes had behind him in New York. Speaking of Ramirez, he’s the one who really benefits here from a fantasy standpoint. With Reyes at shortstop, Ramirez is forced to change positions to third base. With shortstop and third base two of the weakest fantasy positions, having eligibility at both for the foreseeable future is a boon to his value.

And Ramirez finally has someone ahead of him worth driving him. Last season Ramirez struggled badly, but even if he was at full strength his numbers would have suffered with the duo of Chris Coghlan and Emilio Bonifacio manning the leadoff spot and Omar Infante the team’s number two hitter. Reyes and Infante at one and two is much better.

And if Albert Pujols accepts the reported 10-year deal the Marlins are offering, things can only get better in South Beach.

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Tuesday’s Recap: Is Grady Sizemore really back?

By on April 27, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Grady Sizemore‘s season is only 32 at-bats old, but his play in the early going is reminding us why many baseball pundits picked him as a future MVP candidate several years back. He already has three homers on the young season and is batting a Ted Williams-esque .406 in his first eight games. Sizemore’s play will undoubtedly cause much confusion in the fantasy world as owners try to decide whether he’s back to being the star he was from 2005 to 2008 or the oft-injured, frustrating waste of a roster spot we saw in 2009 and 2010.

First, here’s the good news. Sizemore’s strikeout rate (21.1%) and line drive rate (20.0%) are both sustainable given his career averages. For the most part, this means that he should continue putting the ball in play at the same rate we’ve seen over his first eight games and his average should only drop as a result of luck (that .455 BABIP will probably end up around .300).

Now, the not-so-good news. Sizemore’s fly ball rate (60.0%) is astronomical and his HR/FB rate (20.0%) is well above his previous career high (14.5%). This means Sizemore is hitting more fly balls than usual, and a higher percentage of those fly balls are leaving the yard. Granted, he only has three homers on the season, but don’t try and extrapolate that pace over a full season and expect 35-plus bombs. It’s not going to happen. Even in a full season of at-bats, Sizemore is probably more of a mid-to-high 20s guy.

Given his likely low batting average (career .274 with three straight years under that mark) and questionable stolen base output as a result of the injuries he has sustained, is it worth trading for a hot bat that contributes in only a couple categories and is probably overhyped right now? My guess is no. If you have Sizemore I would actively try to trade him, and if someone approached me with Sizemore I’d politely listen to what he was selling before passing on the offer. I don’t want any part of an injury-prone player who’s falsely regarded as a 20/20 threat. It’s not happening.

Three Up

Melky Cabrera, OF, KC - 3-for-4, HR, SB, 2 R, 2 RBI

Wilson Ramos, C, WAS – 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI

Adam Lind, 1B, TOR – 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 R, 5 RBI

Three Down

Colby Rasmus, OF, STL – 0-for-5, K, 4 LOB

Matt Harrison, SP, TEX – 3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, K

Marlon Byrd, OF, CHC – 0-for-4, 3 K, 4 LOB

Notes:

  • After about a month those Carl Crawford or Ryan Braun debates seem sort of pointless. Of course, Crawford could outperform Braun over the last five months of the season, but have you actually seen how awesome Braun has been? He hit his ninth homer of the season on Tueday and has 20-plus runs and RBI, too. Perhaps best of all, his walk rate is more than double his career average (15.5% to 7.5%) which tells me he’s seeing the ball incredibly well and is waiting for his pitches. If you don’t have Braun you likely won’t be able to get him right now, and if you do have him you likely aren’t selling him after this start, but I thought it was worth noting. That’s what this section is for after all…las notas.
  • Sorry, Jed Lowrie, but Matt Holliday is the only qualified player still batting over .400. Unfortunately he’s only had one home run and two RBI over his last eight games, but he is batting .375 with seven runs scored over that span. The rest will come.
  • Break up the Florida Marlins! With three straight wins, the Team That Should be in Vegas has seized the top spot in the NL East with the latest win coming courtesy of Chris Volstad‘s first quality start of the season. Leo Nunez already has seven saves and is putting together another good season, Mike Stanton has rebounded from that funk he was in and Hanley Ramirez had his first two-hit game since April 14. Overall, every Marlins’ pitcher has been fantastic as long as their last name doesn’t begin with a V (Volstad, Javier Vazquez) and I expect one of them *cough* Volstad *cough* to be rosterable in fantasy leagues.
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Florida Marlins: 2011 Fantasy Team Preview

By on February 26, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The Florida Marlins are going to be a fun team to watch this year. Combine the league’s best shortstop with some power arms, a starting outfield with the average age of 23 and a first baseman who received first place votes for rookie of the year and you have a team that’s not ready to concede the NL East to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Marlins will undoubtedly provide some fantasy treasure but beware of the players who turn out to be fool’s gold. To help determine which players to draft and which to avoid, here is a preview of the 2011 Florida Marlins.

Guys I Like

Hanley Ramirez, SS – You already know that Ramirez is worthy of an early first round pick but is he worthy of the number one overall pick? I say yes and here’s why. Say you take Albert Pujols with the first pick and then nab Elvis Andrus later on to be your shortstop (ADP 80.2). But then you realize you could have taken Kendry Morales (ADP 75.7) instead of Andrus if you had taken Ramirez over Pujols earlier. Now tell me with a straight face that you would rather have Pujols/Andrus than Ramirez/Morales. I know I most certainly take the latter.

Josh Johnson, SP – Johnson might have the best pure stuff in the National League but his durability will always be in question. It’s tough to project 200 innings from him but when he does pitch you can expect a sub-three ERA, a low WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with Johnson as my number one starter but if he’s your number two, consider yourself lucky.

Mike Stanton, OF – Stanton’s power is jaw-dropping. At 20 years old he hit 22 home runs in a mere 359 at-bats. His slugging percentage was .507 and his ISO was .248. The only troubling sign for Stanton is his propensity to strikeout which does not bode well for his batting average. The good news is that his walk rate was a healthy 8.6 percent last year and he has a reputation of being a fast learner. It’s entirely possible that Stanton hits 35 home runs this year and approaches 100 RBI.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B – Last year, Sanchez batted .273 with 19 home runs and 85 RBI. Not bad for a first baseman, but even better considering he was a rookie. He showed exceptional command of the strike zone for a young player with a walk rate of 8.9 percent and a strikeout rate of 17.7 percent. Sanchez has the ability to develop more power as some of the 37 doubles he hit last year could translate into a few more home runs.

Ricky Nolasco, SP – Count me as part of Nolasco’s dwindling fan club. Despite two straight disappointing seasons his xFIP was 3.28 in 2009 and 3.55 in 2010. Nolasco is also developing pin-point control, lowering his walks per nine innings from 2.14 to 1.88. If he can harness some of that control and turn it into command, then he’s sure to cut down on the home runs that have been plaguing him. Add in over eight strikeouts per nine innings and Nolasco is someone I’m hoping to get on the cheap.

Guys I Don’t Like

Javier Vazquez, SP – Be careful not to blindly draft Vazquez thinking that the move to the National League will bring instant success. If Vazquez can’t find the velocity on his fastball (88.7 MPH last year vs. 91.1 MPH the year before) then he’s not likely to be any more effective than he was with the Yankees.

Chris Coghlan, OF – If only he were still a second baseman. Some will remember Coghlan’s 2009 rookie of the year campaign and draft him with confidence but really, he’s not that valuable as an outfielder. He hasn’t hit double digit home runs or stolen more than 10 bases in either of his first two years and his batting average plummeted all the way down to .268 last year. The only way Coghlan provides a lot of value is if he can bat north of .320 but he’ll be lucky to top .300.

John Buck, C – The power is real. Even though Buck hit 20 home runs, the most of his career, neither his home run to fly ball ratio of 14.7% percent or ISO of .208 were career highs. The reason I don’t like Buck this year is because there is no way he’s going to duplicate a .281 batting average. His abnormally high batting average was propelled by a .335 BABIP – too high for someone with a line drive percentage of only 16.1 percent. Since Buck’s isn’t exactly fleet of foot, I think it’s safe to say that his batting average was mostly a product of luck.

Sleeper

Logan Morrison, OF – George Fitopoulos already hyped him up so I won’t go into detail here but suffice to say, we both believe his plate discipline will lead to early success, making Morrison a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

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Ryan Raburn: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 14, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

His name sounds like some futuristic skin ailment but Ryan Raburn is someone who matters now. The Detroit Tigers’ 30-year-old utility man may finally claim a starting spot on Opening Day. He will duke it out with Brennan Boesch in Spring Training to be the team’s everyday left fielder, but the Vegas odds are heavily in Raburn’s favor.

If you stopped paying close attention to baseball in mid-summer you might have missed Raburn’s impressive second half stats. After playing sporadically prior to the All-Star break, Raburn batted a robust .315 with 13 home runs and 46 RBI after the break, earning himself more playing time in the process. Although Raburn only had 371 at-bats on the year, he still managed to hit 15 home runs. He hit a HR every 24.7 at-bats, which was more frequent than Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley. Even more impressive, Raburn hit a HR every 16.3 at-bats in 2009. With that proven power stroke imagine what he can do in a full season.

Raburn reminds me a little bit of Ben Zobrist prior to the 2009 season. If you recall, Zobrist was also a super utility-type player who had shown flashes of power in limited playing time. He was finally given 500-plus at-bats in 2009 and clubbed 27 home runs. Raburn can have that type of impact. Also like Zobrist, Raburn has multi-position eligibility. In addition to being an outfielder, Raburn qualifies at second base, playing 18 games there in 2010. The comparisons stop there, however. Zobrist is a base stealer while Raburn is not, but Raburn will hit for a better average. Over the past two years Raburn has notched a .285 average in 632 at-bats.

It will be interested to see where Raburn bats in the Tigers lineup. He actually batted third for the majority of his at-bats last year but that is unlikely to happen again with the acquisition of Victor Martinez. He’ll most likely hit either second (where he will rack up plenty of runs) or sixth where he will have ample opportunities to drive in Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez. Regardless of where he hits, it will be a favorable spot.

Raburn is a must-buy if you’re bargain hunting at the end of your draft. He will be a welcome addition to your outfield but he will provide the most value at second base. With great power for a middle infielder and no weakness other than steals, you’ll turn a nice profit from a minimal investment.

2011 Fantasy Projection

82 R | .283 AVG | 24 HR | 86 RBI | 5 SB

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Who Should I Draft? Justin Upton or Alex Rios

By on February 8, 2011 | Comments { 5 }

While there’s some question as to who’s better between Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez or between Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday, there’s little doubt that those are the top four outfielders. The outfielders after them are a different story.

Enter Justin Upton and Alex Rios.

Upton is one of baseball’s top young players. It’s no surprise then that when Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers put his name on the trading block a few months back almost every team made an offer. Towers wisely pulled him off the block after he realized he couldn’t risk trading away someone as talented as Upton. Rios had a career year in his first full season with the White Sox. He’ll look to continue to prove that his disastrous season in 2009, in which the Blue Jays placed him on waivers and didn’t even demand a player in return, was an anomaly.

Today we’ll decide which outfielder should be drafted first.

Each player is assigned a grade for each of the five standard offensive categories plus a few extra I felt were important to factor. Grades are based on my expectations for the season and take into account both the player’s expected performance relative to the entire player pool and relative to the position he plays at. Grades were averaged using the standard 4.0 GPA scale to provide a cumulative “Professor’s Grade.”

Category
Justin UptonAlex RiosEdge?
Professor's Grade3.34 (B+)3.24 (B)Upton
RunsB+B+Draw
Batting AverageB+B+Draw
Home RunsA-BUpton
Runs Batted InA-BUpton
Stolen BasesBB+Rios
HealthB-A-Rios
Potential CeilingABUpton
Pick SecurityBB+Rios

The Case for Upton

After batting .300 with 26 HR and 20 SB in 2009, Upton was destined for stardom in 2010. Unfortunately, he failed to reach 20 HR or 20 SB and saw his batting average dip to .273 before a shoulder injury forced him to miss most of September.

It’s easy to forget that Upton is still just 23 years old. The former number one overall pick has all the tools you look for in an elite fantasy player. Not counting the freakishly strong Mike Stanton, Upton has the most power of any major leaguer under the age of 24. He’s also athletic enough to steal 20-plus bases, a feat he has already accomplished in his young career. As if that’s not tantalizing enough, he’ll be batting out of the three-hole in a hitter’s ballpark.

Despite Upton’s disappointing stats last year, there were signs of encouragement. His walk rate was 11.2 percent, up from 9.4 percent in his breakout 2009 season. It’s rare for a player as young as Upton to show such a knack for drawing walks and it will only help increase his R and SB potential. Upton also improved his line drive rate and GB/FB ratio which bodes well for an increase in power and batting average.

The sky is the limit for Upton and he certainly has the potential to produce first round numbers.

The Case for Rios

Rios truly is a five category producer. He was one of three players to reach 20 HR and 30 SB with Hanley Ramirez and Drew Stubbs being the others. It was the second time Rios reached both of those marks and the first time he did so in the same season. Rios is also one of the few power speed players that won’t hurt your batting average. If you take out his 2009 season, Rios hasn’t batted less than .284 since 2005. Furthermore, Rios plays in a hitter friendly lineup. He’s surrounded by talented players such as Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez. While he doesn’t have the same potential as Upton, he has shown more consistency and durability.

Who Should I Draft?

Upton and Rios are close in value but I believe Upton is the better pick. From the chart above you can see that they each have the advantage in three categories but Upton has the better overall grade. You can also see that Upton has a distinct power advantage, a skill set that is becoming harder to find. The only real categorical advantage that Rios has is speed, but Upton will still contribute there for you. While Rios is definitely a safe pick due to his consistency, Upton’s potential is far too great to ignore. He’s already one of the best young players in the game and has much room to grow.

It’s for that reason that I’m taking Upton over Rios.

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Travis Snider: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 5, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

So it’s the end of the draft and you feel like you could use another outfielder. You see some familiar names: Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez and Alfonso Soriano. I’ll draft one these guys you think to yourself.

But here’s a better idea: Draft Travis Snider instead.

After spending parts of three seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, Snider heads into the 2011 season as the team’s unquestioned starting right fielder. Still just 23 years old, the former first round pick is on the cusp of justifying his once top prospect status.

Power is Snider’s calling card. In 612 career major league at-bats he has slugged 25 home runs. Last year he smacked 14 homers in only 298 at-bats, good for an AB/HR ratio of 21.3. To put that in perspective, Snider hit home runs at a more frequent rate than Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley.

Snider’s ISO last year was an impressive .208, which was better than Braun, Ramirez and Utley and just .01 less than former home-run king Prince Fielder.

We know Snider can hit for power, but will he be a drain on your batting average? The answer is no. While he batted only .255 last year, it wasn’t for lack of solid contact. Nearly one quarter (24.3%) of his hits were line drives, which ranked third among players with at least 300 plate appearances. Snider is also a career .302 hitter in the minor leagues, with a career .339 batting average in Triple-A so the track record is there. And even though Snider is a lefty, there’s no need to worry about how he’ll fare against southpaws. Last year he hit left-handed pitchers nearly as well as he did right-handers.

If you’re not quite a believer in Snider’s talents just yet, check out how he finished his season in the month of September: .304 AVG| 13 R | 6 HR | 9 RBI | 2 SB.

I expect Snider’s strong finish last season to carry over to this year. With another year of experience and a full season of at-bats under his belt he’s destined to become a good source of power that won’t hurt your batting average in the process. The RBI opportunities will be there as well with Rajai Davis, Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista and Adam Lind hitting in front of him. And he might even steal a few bases.

As you approach the end of your draft, remember there’s little reason to draft an aging player with a declining skill set over a young player like Snider who is on the verge of breaking out.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.279 AVG | 72 R | 26 HR | 81 RBI | 7 SB

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2011 Fantasy Baseball SS Rankings

By on January 26, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

We’ve taken care of our 2011 catcher rankings, first base rankings, second base rankings and third base rankings. Now it’s time to take a look at those guys who are sometimes more known for their defense than their offense. Unfortunately, defense means nothing in fantasy sports so let’s take a look at who can swing the pine just as well as they can flash the leather. On to the tiers!

Tier 1

Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Troy Tulowitzki (COL)

No surprise here. Since 2006 Ramirez has been the best shortstop in the game and isn’t ready to relinquish that title just yet. … Tulowitzki provides rare power at the shortstop position, which is why he has entered the conversation for best shortstop in fantasy baseball. … Check out our 2011 fantasy baseball debate between these two for more perspective.

Tier 2

Jose Reyes (NYM), Derek Jeter (NYY), Alexei Ramirez (CHW), Elvis Andrus (TEX), Jimmy Rollins (PHI), Stephen Drew (ARI)

We have a pair of unknowns at the top of this tier. Will Reyes get back to 50+ steals and stay healthy for a full season? Is Jeter finally showing his age in his 16th full season? ... Ramirez is a frustrating, streaky hitter, but at the end of the year his power/speed combo (18 HR/13 SB) is hard to beat. … Not many have the stolen base potential that Andrus possesses and if he can continue to improve his ability to get on base, a 50-steal season isn’t far away. … Rollins has been plagued with injuries and bad luck the past two years, but he’s only 32 so don’t give up on him just yet. … We’ve been waiting for Drew to break out, but maybe he’s just a slightly above-average shortstop.

Tier 3

Rafael Furcal (LAD), Ian Desmond (WAS), Starlin Castro (CHC), Yunel Escobar (TOR), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (MIN), Jason Bartlett (SD)

Health has always been the issue for Furcal, but it was nice to see him running again last year (22 SB in 97 games). … Desmond showed some nice power/speed (10 HR/17 SB) in his rookie year and should build on it. … Castro enjoyed a fine season in 2010 (.300 AVG and 10 SB), but you’ve already seen his ceiling. … The Blue Jays are building a nice offense north of the border and Escobar turned his season around after joining the team at the trade deadline last year. … Nishioka is an unknown, but he was a high-average hitter with speed in Japan. … Look for Bartlett to return to fantasy relevance with the full-time gig in San Diego. His speed is legit.

Tier 4

Omar Infante (FLA), Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE), Mike Aviles (KC), Juan Uribe (LAD), Alex Gonzalez (ATL), J.J. Hardy (BAL), Reid Brignac (TB), Jed Lowrie (BOS), Ryan Theriot (STL), Miguel Tejada (SF), Marco Scutaro (BOS)

Injuries derailed Cabrera‘s season last year, but he can bring a .300 batting average and close to 20 steals. … Aviles was a rare bright spot for the Royals last year (.304 AVG, 8 HR, 14 SB in 110 games), but couldn’t find regular playing time. He’s slated to start at third, but top prospect Mike Moustakas might have something to say about that come June. … Not a big fan of Uribe‘s climbing age and move to a pitcher’s park. … I don’t think you’ll be talking about Gonzalez in 2011, unless you like talking about disappointing players. … Hardy needs to go back to doing whatever he was doing in 2008 (.283 AVG, 22 HR). … Brignac showed some pop (8 HR in 326 PA) last year, which earned him the full-time gig this year. … While Scutaro is the starter now, don’t be surprised if Lowrie steals a lot of at-bats from him during the season.

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