Tag Archives | Geovany Soto

Recapping the Weekend in 140 Characters or Less

By on July 25, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

In today’s information age, we expect instant results. Internet research suggests that web surfers allow 10 seconds at most for a page to load. Any longer than that and they’ll find their facts elsewhere.

In March of 2011 Subway passed McDonald’s as the world’s largest restaurant chain with over 32,000 locations apiece, meaning fast food is the world’s food of choice.

Perhaps most symbolic of the era we live in is the staggering growth of Twitter. Back in December of 2007, Twitter had 500,000 visitors a month. Just one year later that number bulged to nearly 4.5 million per month. In June of 2011, just over two years later, Twitter logged over 32 million unique visitors. Clearly, people like getting lots of information in quick, easy-to-manage doses.

In my latest attempt to feed this addiction, here’s a recap of what we saw this weekend in 140 characters or less.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC

Hosmer went 4-for-9 over the weekend giving him 4 multi-hit games in his last 5. Power is only so-so but on pace for 95 RBI per 162 games.

Tim Stauffer, SP, SD

Stauffer got rocked against Philly yesterday. His K:BB ratio is 0.92 in 4 July starts versus 3.52 in rest of season. Velocity down of late.

Mike Trout, OF, LAA

Hit his first career homer Sunday and it was a 414-foot shot. Remains a good buy despite low average.

Chase Utley, 2B, PHI

Went 3-for-3 with 2 homers on Saturday, his first homers since July 2. From July 3 to July 18, 12 games and zero RBI so this is a good sign.

Geovany Soto, C, CHC

Went 5-for-9 with a homer over the weekend. Batting .308 in 18 July games. Good potential and just 64% owned so maybe you can get him.

David Wright, 3B, NYM

He’s 6-for-14 since returning from a 2-plus month DL stint. Homered on Sunday with 6 RBI in his three games back.

Justin Upton, OF, ARI

The weekend’s top player: 7-for-9 with a homer, 9 RBI and a steal on Saturday and Sunday and raised OPS from .866 to .903 in the process.

Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL

Don’t buy into Beachy’s start on Sunday. Went 6 innings and allowed just 1 ER, but was lucky in the process (4 walks and 2 homers).

Carl Crawford, OF, BOS

Went 3-for-4 with 2 runs and 2 RBI on Sunday. He’s 9-for-24 (.375) since his return from the DL with 2 steals in 6 games.

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN

Allowed 4 ER in 2.1 innings versus Detroit on Sunday. Walked 4 batters in 3 of last 4 starts. His 5.00 BB/9 easily a career high.

Michael Pineda, SP, SEA

Struggling on the road this season. Lit up by Boston and has now allowed 19 ER in last 3 starts (15.2 IP) @LAA, @TOR, @BOS.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF

Still pitching like an ace. Has a 3.00 ERA if you remove June 21 start vs. MIN (0.1 IP, 8 ER). How’s he 6-9? Strong buy.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA

After 25 straight homerless games, hit 3 bombs on Friday and Saturday. Hopefully he’s back to his May form (.345/6/25).

Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN

Homered and stole a base in the same game (Sunday) for the fourth time this season.

Adam Jones, OF, BAL

Jones did the same thing Sunday that Stubbs did. It was the second time he’d done it this season, his first way back on April 7.

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2011 Midseason Fantasy Rankings: Catcher

By on July 11, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

We’re about 90 games into the 2011 season with the All-Star Break finally here. While the league takes its annual mid-summer hiatus, it’s time for us to get busy dissecting, analyzing and rethinking what we know about major league baseball. That process all starts here with our midseason re-ranking of the catcher position for fantasy leagues everywhere.

Once again, catcher is a veritable wasteland. Only one player, our top-ranked catcher at the mid-point, is in Yahoo!’s top 100 and just four even crack the top 200. Joe Mauer has played just 30 games and hasn’t hit a home run yet. Matt Wieters has been a huge disappointment once again but (somehow) has been the sixth-ranked catcher. Let’s just say I’m glad I’m only ranking 20 catchers.

Here’s how the catcher position should be ranked with all the emphasis placed on expected second half performance.

1. Brian McCann, ATL | 36 R, .310, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB

McCann is batting .300 for the first time since 2008 and is on pace for 26 homers, which would be a new career high. He’s ranked 67th on the season, leads all catchers in home runs and is tied for the lead in RBI. His .310 average ranks third at the position and is in the midst of what might be his best offensive season to date. After a disappointing 2010, McCann is back.

2. Victor Martinez, DET | 37 R, .316, 6 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB

Martinez ranks second in batting average among catchers and is the only other backstop sniffing the top 100 (117 in Yahoo!’s game). The six homers he’s hit on the season are disappointing to say the least, but no other facet of his game has faded and he’ll get a ton of at-bats the rest of the way by virtue of being Detroit’s primary DH. Martinez’s power outage has happened before — remember his two homers in 73 games 2008? — but I think he’s due for a moderate bounce back. If I had to guess I’d say he’ll hit more than six home runs in the second half.

3. Joe Mauer, MIN | 12 R, .243, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 0 SB

Mauer is here on reputation alone. His two biggest strengths are his ability hit for average and score runs, the latter of which is something he’s done at an elite rate relative to his position. I was tempted to put Mauer ahead of Martinez, but what does Mauer do that Martinez hasn’t been doing?

4. Miguel Montero, ARI | 40 R, .272, 10 HR, 45 AVG, 1 SB

Last year Montero averaged 0.106 homers per game. This year he’s averaging 0.123 homers per game, which is basically the same rate as the 2009 version of Montero (0.125). His ISOs are almost all the same as are his run and RBI totals. The take home message here is that Montero is consistent, and consistently good at that.

5. Carlos Santana, CLE | 41 R, .231, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 3 SB

Santana batted just .198 in April but has batted over .260 in two of the last three months. He’s already had two five-home months and would be on pace for the same total i July if not for this week of rest for the All-Star Game. He might have the most raw power of any catcher and has a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio (68-to-62), something I always look for in young players.

6. Alex Avila, DET | 30 R, .286, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 3 SB

Just because we didn’t expect Avila to be this good doesn’t mean he won’t continue to be this good. I wrote a review of the catcher position on May 16 and what I said about Avila then applies to Avila now. Read it.

7. Mike Napoli, TEX | 28 R, .232, 12 HR, 33 RBI, 1 SB

Napoli stared the season strong with 10 homers in the season’s first two months, but then he missed a few weeks in June before coming back on the Fourth of July and smacking two homers and collecting six hits in six July games. Bottom line: Napoli is a .250 hitter who should average about five homers a month with solid RBI totals. He doesn’t have elite potential, but is up there with Santana in terms of power.

8. Matt Wieters, BAL | 31 R, .264, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB

Wieters hit four homers with 16 RBI in 22 April games but has just four homers and 18 RBI in 56 game since. His batting average is slightly above average for the position but nothing to write home about, and his best skill — throwing out would-be base stealers – doesn’t even help fantasy owners. It’s at this point in the rankings where the crop starts inducing yawns.

9. Yadier Molina, STL | 28 R, .282, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 1 SB

Molina is the 12th-ranked catcher and just the 333rd-ranked player overall at the halfway point this year. Like I said before, no one in this group is going to “wow” you, but some have their strengths. Molina’s strength is batting average. The rest is “blah” at best.

10. Miguel Olivo, SEA | 34 R, .223, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB

Olivo struck out 26 times with just one walk in June, but he also homered eight times with 19 RBI. He’s on your roster to hit homers, and he’s been doing that of late.

11. Wilson Ramos, WAS | 28 R, .251, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 0 SB

Ramos has been a nice surprise in Washington. While he’s not a great offensive player, he has shown the ability to get very hot for stretches, batting .358 in April and .346 thus far in July. Just make sure you bench him when he’s not hitting like Mauer.

12. J.P. Arencibia, TOR | 26 R, .222, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 0 SB

Arencibia had exactly four homers in April, May and June, but he’s batting well under .200 since June 1. Again, like everyone else, serious deficits somewhere that are kinda-sorta compensated for by mediocre performance elsewhere.

13. Jorge Posada, NYY | 20 R, .230, 9 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB

Posada had a great June, batting .382 in 22 games that month, but so far in July he’s parlayed that into a disappointing 3-for-22 July (.136). He still has the same power he’s had in recent years (which isn’t a ton but still solid), but the real problem is his career-low line-drive rate fueling that .230 average.

14. John Buck, FLA | 29 R, .220, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB

Just another 18-20 homer, low-.200s hitter. Next please.

15. Rod Barajas, LAD | 15 R, .220, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB

Barajas missed a little time due to injury, but it’s the same old story.

16. Ramon Hernandez, CIN | 21 R, .322, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB

Does it seem like everyone on this list has between eight and 12 homers? Hernandez has a stellar .322 average, but his downfall is his lack of playing time as Ryan Hanigan steals a lot of at-bats.

17. Chris Iannetta, COL | 30 R, .214, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 3 SB

Iannetta batted .272 in May but hasn’t topped .182 in any other month. He has consistently hit three or four homers per month and I’m still a sucker for his potential, but at this point that’s probably a stupid move by me. Even though I’d take a flier on him, realistically he should be ranked down here.

18. Geovany Soto, CHC | 25 R, .228, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 0 SB

I seriously thought Soto was going to rebound this year. Nope. Aside from Barajas, Soto has the worst stats of anyone on this list. He had five homers in July but literally every other stat in ever other month is God-awful. If you have no one worth starting, Soto is worth the risk.

19. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL | 28 R, .280, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 0 SB

Lucroy is the seventh-ranked catcher and 276th-ranked player overall, but almost all of that is fueled by a ridiculous May in which he hit five homers with a crazy 20 RBI. He’s done as close to nothing in any other month as a player with a starting job can do, so don’t buy Lucroy in the second half.

20. Russell Martin, NYY | 26 R, .220, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 7 SB

Martin batted .292 with six homers and 19 RBI in April. He’s batted .184 with four homers and 17 RBI in May, June and July combined. ‘Nuff said.

Yikes…I’m glad that’s over.

There’s plenty to analyze here so feel free to leave your reactions in the comments section. And don’t forget to subscribe to our posts using your favorite feed reader, follow us on Twitter@BaseballProf and get our posts straight to your inbox!

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2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Value Team

By on March 10, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

I’m sure you look at one of these lists every year. The writer picks the player from each position that delivered the most value. It’s not necessarily the best player but rather the player that delivered the most bang for your buck. Sure these lists are fun to read but they’re not particularly useful since they aren’t written until the end of year.

Now imagine reading that list, going back in time and redoing your draft. Well that’s just what you’re about to do.

I present to you the 2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Value Team.

Catcher

Geovany Soto (ESPN ADP: 134.3) – Can someone please explain to me why Brian McCann is going in the fifth or sixth round while Soto isn’t going until the middle rounds? The last two years McCann hit 21 home runs and batted .281 and .269. Last year Soto hit 17 home runs and batted .280 in only 322 at-bats. With Lou Piniella no longer managing the Cubs and jerking Soto in and out of the lineup, he should once again approach the 500 at-bats he received in his rookie season when he batted .285 with 23 home runs.

First Base

Prince Fielder (ESPN ADP: 25.4) – Six first basemen are being drafted ahead of Fielder in ESPN leagues. But I ask you, how many of them can hit 40-plus home runs and drive in 115 RBI? And it’s not like Fielder, with his career .279 batting average, is Adam Dunn where you have to wonder if he’s going to hit under .250. As much as I like someone like Adrian Gonzalez I’d rather draft David Wright in round one and pick up Fielder in round three.

Second Base

Aaron Hill (ESPN ADP: 113.2) – Power is hard to come by this year but Hill has 62 home runs in the past two years yet he’s not even considered a top 10 second baseman. The .205 average is surely scaring people off but keep in mind his BABIP was a ridiculously low .196. Consider Hill’s batting averages in ’06, ’07 and ’09: .291, .291 and .286. People are drafting Dan Uggla in the fourth round but he only has two more home runs than Hill over the past two years and his career batting average is .263.

Third Base

Casey McGehee (ESPN ADP: 91.2) – Only three third basemen batted .285 or higher with at least 20 home runs and 100 RBI last year and McGehee was one of them. But since he only has two seasons under his belt and wasn’t a highly regarded prospect, McGehee is barely regarded at a top 10 third­­ baseman. If you miss out on a top 5 third baseman you should ignore Adrian Beltre, Michael Young and Aramis Ramirez and wait for McGehee a few rounds later.

Shortstop

Stephen Drew (ESPN ADP: 109.8) – Even though shortstop is the thinnest position this year not many people consider Drew a top 100 player. However, not many shortstops have more power than Drew does. His ISO was .181 last year and .211 in 2008 when he hit 21 home runs. But the reason I think Drew will provide a lot of value this year is that I think he can steal 20 bases even though he’s never had more than 10 in a season. Prior to being named the Diamondbacks manager, Kirk Gibson worked closely with base runners and was credited with improving the base running ability of players such as Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. Now as manager of the club, he wants his team to be more aggressive on the base paths which is music to the ears of Drew’s owners.

Outfield

Matt Kemp (ESPN ADP: 28.2) – Kemp can be had in the third round but he has the potential to put up first round numbers. Despite a down year he still had 82 runs, 28 home runs, 89 RBI and 19 stolen bases. With so few top end outfielders, Kemp could easily be the best at the position this year. Reports out of Dodgers camp are that new manager Don Mattingly will bat Kemp cleanup and allow him to run more. Sign me up please.

Starting Pitcher

Josh Beckett (ESPN ADP: 168.8) – It’s easy to disregard a pitcher after a down year when starting pitching depth is so deep. But I can’t fathom why 41 starters are going ahead of Beckett when so few pitchers outside the top 20 have the potential to be a fantasy ace like he does. Beckett battled injuries all last year and as a result, his K/BB ratio was his worst in years. But his 2010 issues are behind him and he’s feeling great, despite the concussion scare early in spring training. With the potent Sox offense behind him, not many pitchers have more win potential than Beckett.

Relief Pitcher

Joe Nathan (ESPN ADP: 157.1) – Nathan isn’t being drafted as a top 15 relief pitcher because he missed all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. However, he hasn’t suffered any setbacks in spring training and he’s beginning to look like his old self. If his health continues to hold up there’s no reason why he can’t finish among the top five relief pitchers.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

By on January 22, 2011 | Comments { 7 }

We just released our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings earlier this week, and now it’s time to take a position-by-position look at just how everything played out. It’s probably a good idea you check out our top 30 catchers in fantasy baseball if you haven’t seen it yet. It’s pretty awesome.

Tier 1

Joe Mauer (MIN), Victor Martinez (DET), Buster Posey (SF), Brian McCann (ATL), Carlos Santana (CLE)

Mauer, Martinez and McCann have dominated the top tier for years, and now they’re joined by a couple up-and-coming youngsters. With the three vets, you know what you’re going to get. Mauer is a .300-plus hitter with 15-homer power, Martinez hits .300 with around 100 RBI and McCann hits in the .270s or so with 20-plus homers and 85-plus RBI. … Posey showed the world how great he can be, but I’m a bit skeptical of his strikeout rate. At 13.5 percent, it was the lowest rate he’s ever had, minor leagues included. … Because of injury, Santana is the greatest unknown of the group, but his potential is off the charts. He strikes out a decent amount (around 20% of the time) but he’s already a threat for 25 homers. He even swipes a few bases here and there, however, the most impressive thing about Santana is his plate discipline. In just 192 PA last season he walked 37 times to 29 strikeouts. That’s a walk every fifth at-bat!

Tier 2

Jorge Posada (NYY), Geovany Soto (CHC), Miguel Montero (ARI), Matt Wieters (BAL), Mike Napoli (TOR), Kurt Suzuki (OAK), Russell Martin (NYY), John Buck (FLA)

This tier is essentially everybody else who can be expected to be a full-time catcher and get at least 400-450 AB. They’re clearly not in the class of the first tier (although Posada, Soto and Wieters have the best chance at jumping up),  and most of these guys are fairly interchangeable. Posada is the full-time DH in New York, Soto rebounded nicely last season, Wieters still has potential and actually hit the 10th longest homer in the league last season. … Napoli is now in Toronto, Martin is now in New York and Buck was his ever-consistent self.

Tier 3

Ryan Doumit (PIT), Miguel Olivo (SEA), Carlos Ruiz (PHI), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), A.J. Pierzynski (CHW), Chris Iannetta (COL), Yadier Molina (STL), Nick Hundley (SD), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (BOS), John Jaso (TB), Yorvit Torrealba (TEX), Chris Snyder (PIT)

The guys in this tier are interchangeable, too, in the sense that it doesn’t matter which one you have. You’re screwed anyway. Everybody in this tier either splits time or puts up stats that make you think they were splitting time. Doumit and Ruiz are really the only ones that could be expected to enter the tier of serviceable guys above them. We ranked more catchers in our top 30 rankings (since this only takes us through 25), but do you really want to hear about Jason Castro and Francisco Cervelli? Oh, one last note. When we did the rankings it was assumed that Arencibia would be Toronto’s primary catcher. Now with Napoli in the mix that’s no longer likely. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

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The Morning After: April 12

By on April 12, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Let’s be honest. With the conclusion of the Masters and two of the hottest pitching prospects making their first minor league starts, there was probably more hype outside the Major League’s on Sunday.

Nevertheless, we still saw the closest thing to a complete game shutout from Roy Halladay and a nice MLB debut from first-round pick Mike Leake. Without further delay, let’s delve into what took place Sunday afternoon.

Sunday’s best: Roy Halladay (PHI) – 9 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Sunday’s worst: David Ortiz (BOS)- 0-for-4, 4 K, 5 LOB

Tigers 9, Indians 8

  • Travis Hafner has hit safely in five of the Indians six games and has knocked in a run in three straight games. If his shoulder holds up he should be a nice source of cheap power.
  • Chris Perez blew his first save of the season but his job is safe for now. … Magglio Ordonez continued his hot hitting by collecting two more hits and knocking in two runs.
  • Austin Jackson now has three multi-hit games on the season.
  • Justin Verlander pitched poorly for the second consecutive start. Hopefully he’s not feeling the effects of the 240 innings he pitched last year.

Marlins 6, Dodgers 5

  • Knuckleballer Charlie Haeger struck out 12 Marlins in six innings, but he did walk four batters. Control will always be a problem for Haeger so he’s still not a matchups play at this point. … Jorge Cantu, who has an RBI in every game this season, drove in five on Sunday and hit his second home run of the season.
  • Cameron Maybin is hitting in a very favorable spot in the Marlins lineup. He’s protected by Hanley Ramirez and also has Cantu and Dan Uggla hitting behind him. If he can get on base, expect a lot of runs out of him this year.

Nationals 5, Mets 2

  • Josh Willingham belted a homer and drove in five runs. He did have 24 home runs last year in only 427 at bats.
  • Jeff Francoeur raised his average to .476 with two hits. Don’t overlook him, after all he did hit .311 with 10 home runs in 75 games for the Mets last year.
  • Johan Santana failed to build off of his first start of the season, letting up five runs in five innings while only striking out three batters.

Reds 3, Cubs 1

  • Mike Leake, Cincinnati’s first round pick a year ago, pitched pretty well in his major league debut. He pitched 6 2/3 innings, surrendering only one run and striking out five batters. The only blemishes were the seven walks, which is expected from a young pitcher. Don’t rush out to add him yet, but he makes a pretty nice matchups play.
  • Geovany Soto’s struggles continue and while the signs have not been encouragins so far, I still like him for a bounce back this year.

Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2

  • Shaun Marcum pitched well again for the Jays and if he’s on your waiver wire pick him up now.
  • Brian Roberts was not in the lineup for the second straight game and his strained abdominal muscle could force him to the DL.

Yankees 7, Rays 3

  • Curtis Granderson collected two more hits and stole his third base of the year. This looks like it could be a monster year for New York’s new center fielder.
  • At least A.J. Burnett got the win because he only struck out one batter. You likely won’t see that again from him.
  • Tough game for B.J. Upton as he went 0-for-3 and stranded six men on base.
  • Jason Bartlett continues to prove he’s a good source of average, runs and stolen bases, however, I’d like to see him repeat last year’s power performance before I fully trust him.

Phillies 2, Astros 1

  • Cy, I mean Roy Halladay pitched a complete game letting up no earned runs and striking out eight batters. He will have a better year than Tim Lincecum. Mark it down.
  • Roy Oswalt looked good, striking out eight Phillies in six innings and only letting up two runs. He appears healthy at the moment but the injury bug could bite him at any time.

White Sox 5, Twins 4

  • Denard Span continues to struggle at the plate but don’t do anything rash like drop him. If you don’t have him maybe send a low-ball offer for him just in case his owner is of the impatient type.
  • The criminally underrated Paul Konerko slugged his third home run of the season.
  • Gordon Beckham hit his first home run of the season and is poised to take the next step.

Red Sox 8, Royals 6

  • Jacoby Ellsbury left the game holding his ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre. X-rays came back negative but expect him to miss the next game or two.
  • Speaking of Beltre, he raised his average to .400 with three hits.
  • David Ortiz put on the Golden Sombrero Sunday afternoon going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. With Mike Lowell and Jeremy Hermida on the bench, Ortiz doesn’t have as long a leash as he had last year.
  • Gil Meche came off the DL and pitched a stinker. Watch him in his next few starts to see if he shows improvement before picking him up.

Rangers 9, Mariners 2

  • Franklin Gutierrez continues his hot hitting and should see plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the meat of the Mariners’ lineup.
  • Vladimir Guerrero is now batting .500 on the season after another multi-hit game.
  • Scott Feldman pitched seven innings again, surrendering only one run and striking out four batters. Last year was not a fluke.

Rockies 4, Padres 2

  • Chase Headley had two more hits on Sunday to bring his average up to .440. A former top prospect, Headley looks primed for a breakout season now that he’s back at his familiar position at third base.
  • Miguel Olivo hit his second home run of the season and is clearly outperforming Chris Iannetta at this point of the season.

Athletics 9, Angels 4

  • Jake Fox got the start at catcher for Oakland. If/when he gets catcher eligibility he is definitely someone to add.
  • Dallas Braden didn’t strike out 10 batters this time but he did have a quality start and got the win.
  • Brandon Wood went hitless again so look for Maicer Izturis to start stealing some at bats in the immediate future.

Giants 6, Braves 3

  • Jason Heyward hit his third home run in his big league career. Let’s face it. This kid is going to be great, but temper your expectations this year and don’t count on 30 home runs or a .300 average in 2010.
  • Pablo Sandoval hit his first home run of the season and could approach 30 this year.

Diambacks 15, Pirates 6

  • Lastings Milledge batted third for the Pirates and responded with three hits. Reports are that he has learned a lot in the maturity department from Andrew McCutchen and if he continues to show progress, he could become a classic post-hype sleeper.
  • Chris Young and Kelly Johnson both hit their third home runs of the season. It looks like these guys are becoming fantasy relevant once again.

Brewers 8, Cardinals 7

  • Ryan Ludwick batted second again for the Cardinals as if looks like Tony LaRussa will continue to do this against lefties.
  • Albert Pujols hit two more home runs and drove in in four runs. I’m pretty sure he really is a machine. … Rickie Weeks hit his second home run of the season. He is now batting .368 with six runs and four RBI.
  • Trevor Hoffman blew his second consecutive save. Although Texas and Baltimore have already made closing changes, Hoffman won’t lose his job considering he is seven saves away from 600. Todd Coffey is next in line for saves if something were to happen to Hoffman.
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Quick Hits: ADP Reports

By on March 24, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

With the season quickly approaching and fantasy baseball drafts in full force, it’s time we take a look at some average draft positions that I think are too high or too low for my liking.

  • I already wrote about why I think Geovany Soto (181.7) will bounce back in 2010 so you can imagine why I believe Soto is a great value in drafts. Just one year removed from a Rookie of the Year campaign, Soto can provide great offensive numbers in the 19th round of 10-team mixed leagues.
  • Another great value at catcher, Kurt Suzuki (224.1) provides the same numbers as Yadier Molina (182.1) but 40 picks later. He also throws some sneaky steals into the mix.
  • It’s not like Adrian Gonzalez (27.8) has punched his ticket out of San Diego just yet, and until I see him in another uniform he isn’t worth a third rounder. He’s going 14 picks ahead of Joey Votto, 20 picks ahead of Justin Morneau, and 33 picks ahead of Kendry Morales, all of whom could match Gonzalez’s production in 2010.
  • It seems like every year Paul Konerko (218) slips to the later rounds, but with three-year averages of .260/27/80 you would think he was getting drafted earlier than the 22nd round in 10-team mixed leagues.
  • So far, Brian Roberts (42.9) is the fifth second baseman off the board and trending up despite some recent struggles with his back. Still, I would rather have Brandon Phillips (44.5), Ben Zobrist (64.6) and Aaron Hill (73.2) unless all signs point to Roberts being 100 percent healthy going into the season.
  • Third base is very weak this year, but Troy Glaus (217.2) could provide some good production late in the draft. He will be starting at first base for the Atlanta Braves this year, which means he will have dual eligibility as well.
  • Yeah he hit just .223 last season, but Jay Bruce (105.8) has been a home run machine in his first two seasons. In 2008, he hit 21 home runs in just 418 at bats (19.9 AB/HR) and followed it up with an even better season in 2009 as he hit 22 home runs in just 345 at bats (15.7 AB/HR). Outside of Jason Heyward you won’t find better power potential in the 11th round.
  • There is a lot of speed in the outfield this year and it’s proven by the likes of Juan Pierre (136.5), Nyjer Morgan (137.4), Julio Borbon (138.7), and Rajai Davis (161.5). All four players are legit 50-steal candidates and can be had after the 13th round in 10-team mixed leagues. You might want to reconsider players like Jacoby Ellsbury (20.8) and even Michael Bourn (120.7).
  • It seems like everyone is forgetting about the utility players as Vladimir Guerrero (156.1), David Ortiz (168.3), and Hideki Matsui (173.7) are all going after the 15th round in 10-team mixed leagues. Guerrero is looking good in Spring Training and Ortiz will give you near-30 home run and 100 RBI production. Matsui, if healthy, can provide with very good power numbers considering he is being drafted in the 18th round and should maintain OF eligibility.
  • Much like Konerko, Ted Lilly (197.2) always goes underappreciated in drafts and this year is no different. Of course, there are some concerns with his health coming into the season, but he is recovering well from shoulder surgery and could be back by mid-to-late April. Lilly can provide you with a very good K/9, low whip and decent win totals, which is good value in the 20th round if you are willing to hold onto him while he rehabs in the minors.
  • Some undrafted pitchers to look out for: Justin Duchscherer (good when healthy), Kevin Correia (great home park and second half), Bud Norris (good strikeout potential), Ryan Rowland-Smith (great defense and home park and should be #3 starter on Mariners).
  • Obviously, Chris Perez (221.5) should be getting drafted earlier with news that Kerry Wood (195.5) could be out for two months. Also, Perez owners should feel confident that he will keep his job as long as he pitches well in Wood’s absence so he would be worth an 18th-20th round pick. Wood should be going undrafted in every draft out there and at best is a reserve pick in deeper leagues.
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Geovany Soto: Between the (Stat) Lines

By on January 30, 2010 | Comments { 4 }

If I told you that Geovany Soto was a better hitter in 2009 than in 2008 would you believe me?

Of course not. You would look at his Rookie of the Year award and say “how can a .218 batting average beat that?” Then you would probably commit me to a mental institution for having such outlandish thoughts.

Now what if I told you that Soto’s 2009 season was mostly a product of bad luck and misfortune? Ahh, now we’re making a little sense!

The Cubs were an all-around mess last season with injuries to Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Soto. Let’s not forget to mention the failed Milton Bradley experiment and the fact that only two players managed over 100 games and a .260 batting average. The team finished an unimpressive 83-78, their worst record in three years. Needless to say, it was not a good year to be on the Cubs.

Soto was no exception as he battled shoulder and oblique injuries in his second pro season and posted a .218 batting average with 11 HR and 47 RBI in just 108 games. A lot of people look at the numbers and slap on the popular “sophomore slump” tag that so many second-year pros go through. Did Soto really have a sophomore slump, or was it more a reversal of fortune?

The most popular stat in fantasy baseball these days is BABIP, or in other words, the batting average of balls you hit in play. In Soto’s impressive 2008 rookie season he managed a .337 BABIP, but that number took a huge dive in 2009 and bottomed out at .251. Using a BABIP calculator, which was created by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix, we can calculate that Soto’s expected BABIP for 2009 was .312 (61 points higher than his actual total).

Also, history would suggest that 2009 was an exception rather than the norm because Soto’s career BABIP in the minor’s was well over .300 as well. I think it’s fair to say that Soto didn’t get many friendly bounces last season. Let’s move on.

Soto’s luck was so bad in 2009 that he actually posted worse numbers while improving at the plate.

In 2008, Soto posted a BB% of 11.0, swung at 20.1 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, and made contact on 83.4 percent of strikes. That year he won Rookie of the Year and made the All-Star team. In 2009, Soto’s BB% rose to 12.9, he chased  fewer pitches outside the strike zone (17.8%), and made contact on more strikes (87.3%). In this year he won, as Jim Mora would so nicely put it, “diddly poo.” Only a Cubs player would improve his approach at the plate and be rewarded with mediocrity.

My final point is that a lot of people tend to think that Soto’s power disappeared in 2009, which is a false statement. It wasn’t as good as his rookie year, but that’s to be expected when you’re battling shoulder and oblique injuries most of the year. In fact, Soto’s 31 extra base hits made up 43 percent of his total hits in 2009, which was right on his 2008 pace of 42.5 percent. Also, his ISO was .163, which was down from his 2008 mark of .219, but would have still ranked fifth among catchers had he qualified.

Currently Soto’s ADP is 180 on couchmanagers.com and he was drafted 176th overall in ESPN’s first mock draft. Players such as Miguel Montero, Jorge Posada, Bengie Molina, and Kurt Suzuki are being draft 20-60 spots ahead of Soto, which makes him an amazing value because he is due for a very nice bounce-back season in 2010.

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