Tag Archives | Curtis Granderson

James Shields And 11 Other Players I'm Skeptical Of After 2011

By on September 30, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The season’s just ended and already I’m raising my eyebrow at the season James Shields just had. And I mean that literally. I’m actually raising my eyebrow as we speak. It’s no secret that everyone here at Baseball Professor loved Shields’ value at the start of the season — he was coming off a disastrous 2009 season after all — but is he really as good as his 2.82 ERA suggests? His previous career-best ERA was 3.56, and even with his awesome numbers from this year his career ERA is still just a tick under 4.00 at 3.96.

Shields isn’t the only player whose 2011 success will be met with skepticism. Here are 11 other guys who’s great years will be tough to follow.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox

Guys call him Tacoby Ellsbury, ladies call him the Navajo Prince and surely many fantasy owners were calling him Savior after the stunningly awesome year he put together. If you had Ellsbury in your “Who will lead the Red Sox in home runs?” pool then we’d love to have you write for us. Can you believe he just had the first 30/30 season in Red Sox history? Ellsbury’s 2011 numbers thrust him into the debate over who should go in the first round next year, but is his stat line repeatable? And how many question marks did I just use?

Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

I swear I’m not going to name all the best players from 2011, but Kemp’s 39-homer, 40-steal season is going to be hard to replicate. He finished with career bests in BABIP and HR/FB rate, and while we expect someone of Kemp’s caliber (who’s also in his prime) to get better each year, his ability to match those two numbers will go a long way toward whether we look at his 2012 as a disappointment or the start of something very special.

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees

Seriously. I’m not going to just name all the best players. Skepticism in Granderson’s case is more than warranted, though. When he first moved to Yankee Stadium last season we expected it to be a boon to his power totals, but the Grandy Man (I hate John Sterling) once again struggled against left-handed pitchers. This season he clobbered lefties, finishing with a higher average and a better home run rate versus southpaws. Much of that has been credited to a change in approach, and we’ve seen players like David Ortiz, Nelson Cruz and Jose Bautista become stars after tweaking their mechanics, but is Granderson next in line? (Oh, Ortiz also makes this list. A .300 average? Yeah, right.)

Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers

Avila came out of nowhere to finish the year as the third-ranked catcher in fantasy. Can he repeat a .295/18/82 season? There’s still about five months between now and next year’s fantasy drafts so we’ll see what Avila’s ADP looks like next year, but my guess is people are going to remain very skeptical of him. I have a hard time seeing him get drafted any better than seventh or eighth among catchers next year, meaning he’ll probably fall to somewhere in the 150s to 180s overall. That could make him a good value…if he can repeat.

Michael Young, 1B/2B/3B, Texas Rangers

Young had his best year since 2006. It was his first 200-hit season since 2007 and just his second 100-RBI season. On top of that, his .338 average was a new career best. Young is in a great lineup and a great ballpark, but his .367 BABIP was also a new career high and he finished with just 11 home runs. It wouldn’t take much for that .338/11/103 line to fall to something resembling .300/11/85 and even though third base is shallow, that’s a very replaceable line.

Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals

You’re seriously surprised to see Gordon on this list? Any time someone falters for as long as Gordon had, his success is bound to be met with skepticism. Just like we said with Young, Gordon’s .303/23/101 season (with 17 steals) could pretty easily become .280/18/80/15, and while that’s still very useful, it’s not quite as impactful. Thankfully, the skepticism surrounding Gordon will likely prevent his draft stock from rising too high.

Ian Kennedy, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Kennedy is one of the few players who’s playoff performance will likely have a major impact on his 2012 fantasy draft positioning. If he pitches like the 21-win ace he was this year, then people will be fighting to draft him. If he falters, that will only give skeptics like myself more than enough reason to doubt him. Luckily for you, and regardless of how Kennedy performs, we’ll be taking a nice, long look at his 2011 season in the coming months so you’ll know exactly what to make of him next year.

Josh Beckett, SP, Boston Red Sox

Beckett is injury prone, and we witnessed that once again as the Red Sox righty missed a few starts here and there with some minor injuries. The good news is that Beckett was so good when he was pitching that he was the only starter ranked in the top 10 at the position who tossed fewer than 200 innings. In fact, Johnny Cueto was the next sub-200 inning starter and he finished 18th.

Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

There will likely be less skepticism surrounding Hellickson’s 2011 success than there ought to be because so many people predicted he’d pitch well. What’s bothering me is three-fold. First, his home/road splits show some unnerving signs that he’s not quite there yet. Second, his 2.95 ERA isn’t a true indicator of how well he pitched this season. Third, he still pitches in the AL East, and New York, Boston and Toronto are three of the top five or so offenses in baseball.

C.J. Wilson, SP, Texas Rangers

Wilson has proven he can be an effective starter, something that I wasn’t sure he’d be able to do after so many years as a reliever. What worries me here is that Wilson is going to be a free agent and he seems like the perfect candidate for some team to overpay to get and then watch implode. Then again, I’ve watched the Red Sox do this on three occasions over the last few years (Beckett, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka) so maybe I’m just jaded.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, San Francisco Giants

Amazingly, Vogelsong had an ERA over 3.03 in just one month this whole season (August) as he proved doubters wrong again and again. Now with a whole offseason of doubt ahead of him, it’s going to take something special for him to put together a similar year.

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Surprising Hitting Stats of the First Half

By on July 11, 2011 | Comments { 2 }

So here we are. Baseball’s All-Star break.

Let’s be honest, the next three days won’t be easy.  There will be no highlights with home runs, no diving catches and no walk off moments. Not the most exciting time in sports—because there are no sports. The home run derby hasn’t been interesting since we stopped allowing those boxes from Cuba and the DR labeled “vitamins” into our country. The All-Star game? If you’re not going to play it like a real game why should I care?

Football and basketball are locked out so all we have to wet our sports palette is women’s world cup soccer and hockey free agency. Oh and there’s the ESPY’s. Yawn.

I think I’ll take a vacation, but before I do let’s take a look back a the first half of the season. Here are some hitter’s stats that really popped out at me and my two and a half cents.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox (.867 OPS)

I talked about Ellsbury’s recent power surge in a recent post and I feel like I need to point it out again because it’s very shocking. Scouts have always seen a little power potential in the speedy centerfielder, but he currently has a .867 OPS, which ranks him 24th among all hitters and 10th among outfielders. Add in the fact that he is a runs machine (62 R) and fast as hell (28 SB) and you have yourself a nice little fantasy asset.

Chase Headley, 3B/OF, San Diego Padres (.391 OBP, but just 34 R/2 HR/31 RBI)

Well someone had to assume Adrian Gonzalez’s role as the best hitter on the Padres right? Unfortunately for Headley, while his .299 AVG and .391 OBP are very nice he is lacking in the home run department. Also, with such a subpar lineup it’s not shocking that Headley has scored just 34 runs with 31 RBI. Just have to chalk this one up to decent player with upside, but in a black hole.

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees (25 HR, success vs. lefties)

Granderson may very well be the MVP of the first half (Also in the mix: Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp and Albert…oh wait, sorry) and it’s solely because of his success against left-handed pitching. His .263 AVG and .923 OPS look good to the naked eye, but considering how much Granderson struggled before they are shocking. Over the last three years he averaged .223 AVG/.614 OPS. Talk about a game-changing turnaround.

Carlos Beltran, OF (.880 OPS) and Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets (.927 OPS)

The problem with these two was never talent, but health. Now that they have both enjoyed relatively healthy first halfs it should be no real surprise here that they are among the best at their positions. However, despite the great power numbers—in Reyes’ case it’s in the form of doubles (22) and triples (15)—I would recommend trading them for safer options. In Reyes’ case you should wait until he comes back and hopefully puts together a decent string of games, but don’t play with fire. These guys are fragile and will screw you come September.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, Washington Nationals (16 HR/12 SB)

Could it be that we have found the next Ian Kinsler? Espinosa is one of the pleasant surprises this year and up until a couple weeks ago he was available in a majority of leagues! His 16 home runs rank second among second basemen and his 12 steals rank sixth. He will never hit for a hit batting average (much like Kinsler the past couple years), but he will bring a lot of other things to the table. And he’s only 24.

Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals (88% Y! leagues)

OK, so ownership isn’t really a baseball stat, but hear me out. I understand that Butler has a very good OBP (.390) and a decent average (.294), but only 6 HR, 36 R and 38 RBI? I tend to expect more from my corner infielders. Especially in shallow leagues. And word to the wise, depending on what site you use Butler could be on his way to utility-only world as he has only started 10 games at first base this year.

David Ortiz, 1B, Boston Red Sox (19 HR/.304 AVG)

How could it be that just last year at this time everyone was calling for the Red Sox to release Ortiz because they couldn’t stand to watch him start swinging at a fastball that had already hit the catcher’s mit? This year has been a complete 180, flipkick, double turnaround type of season. Suspicious much? Does it matter? Guy is raking and you want every bit of it.

I’m sure that I left out plenty of surprising stats for the first half so feel free to chime in with your favorites in the comments section or on our twitter page @Baseballprof.

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Lefties Who Hit Lefties

By on June 24, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

We’ve already had some fun doing splits, so why not keep those legs extra limber?

Every baseball fan knows that it’s harder for left-handed hitters to hit lefties than it is for right-handed hitters to hit righties. Fortunately, there are always a handful of lefty sluggers that don’t adhere to this age-old rule.

These players make us happy. We don’t have to baby them and sit them against southpaws for fear of the o-for. Just plug them into the lineup and fear not which hand the pitcher releases the ball from.

Here are five left-handed hitters who more than hold their own against their pitching brethren.

Brennan Boesch, OF, Detroit Tigers – .355 BA vs. LHP

Boesch’s lefty killing ways are no fluke as he batted .337 against them in last year’s rookie campaign. Although his power isn’t nearly as potent against lefties this year (.113 ISO vs. .207 ISO), he’s still getting on base at a .417 clip against southpaws. As a result, Boesch certainly doesn’t need a platoon mate in your make believe outfield. Start him everyday with confidence.

Aubrey Huff, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants – .350 BA vs. LHP

Huff has always hit lefties well. He’s a career .278 hitter against them, which is not much worse than his career average of .282 against righties. This year he’s hitting an impressive 147 points higher against southpaws. Maybe it’s not so impressive considering that Huff’s batting average against right-handers is a paltry .203 but that has to improve right? If he continues to hit lefties and bats close to his career average against righties, Huff should start making his way back into starting lineups. With a .313 batting average in June to along with four home runs and a .538 slugging percentage, Huff is starting to heat up.

Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds – .303 BA vs. LHP

Let’s take a look at Bruce’s batting averages against lefties since his rookie year:

2008: .190

2009: .210

2010: .277

2011: .303

This is exactly the type of improvement you want to see from a young lefty slugger. Here are some other eye-popping numbers from Bruce against left-handers: .378 on-base percentage, .621 slugging percentage and a .318 ISO. At 24 years old, Bruce has become a complete hitter. Consider him a top 10 outfielder for years to come.

Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals – .287 BA vs. LHP

Part of Gordon’s early career struggles stemmed from his inability to hit left-handed pitchers. Including this season’s .287 mark, his career batting average against lefties is .228. However, this year has been a completely different story. Gordon’s batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and ISO are all better against lefties than righties. Gordon may never become a superstar but he’s certainly a mainstay in your starting lineup.

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees – .270 BA vs. LHP

I admit I was wary of Granderson coming into the season. I tried to avoid hitters who were anemic against left-handers and with a career .221 batting average against them, he was certainly not someone on my radar. But kudos to Granderson, with the help of Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long, for making an adjustment in his swing. The new approach has done wonders as he has 12 home runs and a staggering .371 ISO against lefites. As a result, Granderson is an unquestioned top 10 outfielder.

 

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Trying to predict the rest of the 2011 season

By on June 2, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

So the baseball season is about one-third completed. The Cleveland Indians have the best winning percentage in baseball with the third-best run differential in the majors. Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore have sucked. Yeah, you heard right.

Adam Wainright is out for the season, Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols have struggled mightily and the team doesn’t have a closer, yet the Cardinals sit in first place in the NL Central.

The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has the major’s best ERA (okay, so that isn’t a huge surprise), but did you expect it to be because of Jair Jurrjens‘ 1.51 ERA through 65 2/3 innings?

The major-league leader in home runs is Jose Bautista with 20 (again, not a huge surprise), but Matt Joyce on top with a .361 batting average? (Insert fat black woman “Oh no he didn’t”) Yes he has.

Wainwright, Kendrys Morales, Buster Posey, Jorge de la Rosa, Daisuke Matsuzaka all out for the season. David Wright, Matt Holliday, Francisco Liriano, Joe Mauer, Ike Davis, Shane Victorino, Jayson Heyward, Delmon Young, Josh Johnson, Joe Nathan, Matt Garza have all seen time on the DL. You could fill an entire All-Star roster emergency room with that group.

And we aren’t even going to start with the overhaul on closers this season.

Cliche alert!

If you could have predicted this start to the 2011 season, you should be in Vegas—and take me with you.

It’s nearly impossible to predict the future in sports, which is why people lose a lot of money through betting and fortune telling isn’t a real profession. Sorry Miss Cleo…

That being said, I predict that I will give my thoughts to some of the first two month’s big stories—and you will listen.

Dan Uggla has been baseball’s unluckiest hitter

It’s true that Uggla has been unlucky (.186 BABIP), but he’s not helping his cause either with his increased ground ball rate (45.2%) and lowered line drive rate (13.7%). It seems to me he’s pressing at the plate as he is swinging at more pitches off the plate (26.4%) and more pitches overall (47.9%). This has led to fewer walks and until he shows that he is comfortable at the plate I would sit him.

Ted Lilly is about to break out in a big way

It was around this time last year that Lilly turned his season around and was one of the better pitchers of the second half. He has thrown three straight quality starts while compiling an impressive 15 K:1 BB ratio. He currently has a 4.22 ERA and his strikeouts are down from last year so there might be an opportunity to buy low, but the window is closing fast. Throughout his career the highest strikeout totals come in June (7.63 K/9), August (7.87) and September (7.97).

Trade Albert Pujols while you still can

Pujols has been one of the more peculiar players this year as his stuggles are unprecedented. Maybe it’s an undisclosed injury, or the weight of his impending free agency. Whatever it is, owners don’t know whether to cut bait or stay patient with the perennial slugger. I’m not telling you that you have to trade him away at any cost because he should turn it around this year, but if you could get an elite player in return still I would pull the trigger. Players I would trade Pujols straight up for are Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp (keeper league only), Evan Longoria (keeper league only) and Ryan Braun.

Curtis Granderson is fantasy baseball’s MVP through two months

It’s no secret why Granderson is enjoying all of this success right now—he is finally hitting left-handed pitching. Last year he batted .234 with four home runs and 41 K/13 BB in 158 at-bats against lefties. Those numbers currently are .303 with nine home runs and 18 K/4 BB in 66 at-bats. At this pace he will easily eclipse the 30/30 mark and become this year’s Carlos Gonzalez. And then next year we will search for that year’s Granderson. And the world will keep spinning.

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Daily Fantasy Recap: Pitching prevails on Opening Day, 2011

By on April 1, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The 2011 edition of baseball’s Opening Day picked up right where 2010 left off: pitching was the story.

In all, the 12 teams in action on Thursday averaged 3.42 runs with one shutout and seven teams scoring three or fewer runs. Of course, with certifiable aces taking the mound for most of the teams in play (sorry, Livan Hernandez…you’re not quite “ace-quality” in my book) this isn’t exactly a surprise.

Like we’ll do every day throughout the season, here are some fantasy-worthy notes and some hastily-drawn conclusions from baseball’s first day of games:

Detroit Tigers 3 @ New York Yankees 6

  • Brett Gardner batted leadoff for the Yankees, something he did in just 25 of his 150 games last season. This could mean a lot more runs for a player who scored 97 times last season hitting primarily eighth and ninth.
  • The Joba Chamberlain-Rafael Soriano-Mariano Rivera chain worked to perfection (literally) as no Tiger reached base in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings. If CC Sabathia can keep going six or seven innings in each of his starts he could match (or even surpass?) his 21 wins from a season ago. In 2010, Sabathia averaged almost exactly seven innings per start.
  • Curtis Granderson homered off a left-handed pitcher (Phil Coke), something he did just four times last year in 158 at-bats versus southpaws (.354 SLG). Coke allowed just one homer in 110 at-bats to left-handed batters last season.
  • Russell Martin played well in his New York debut. He went 1-for-3 with two runs scored and even stole a base. Martin swiped only six bags last season.
  • Austin Jackson struck out three times in four at-bats including twice in three at-bats versus Sabathia. Jackson struck out 170 times last year and four times in seven at-bats versus Sabathia in 2010.

Atlanta Braves 2 @ Washington Nationals 0

  • Chipper Jones is making good on his teammates’ word after they said he was playing like he had something to prove this spring. Jones went 2-for-4 with a double and a run scored batting third for Atlanta.
  • Jason Heyward homered in his first at-bat! He’s now homered in his first at-bat of every season of his Major League career!! Wow!!! (sarcasm?)
  • Jayson Werth batted second for the Nationals, a spot we’ll continuously see him batting in due to his high OBP (or so says Nats’ manager Jim Riggelman).
  • Danny Espinosa was the lone bright spot for the Nationals’ offense as he went 2-for-3 with a double. I’m telling you…get this kid while you still can.
  • Both starters (Derek Lowe and Livan Hernandez) pitched very effectively. Lowe struck out six with just five baserunners in 5 2/3innings. Hernandez made me look like a fool in my intro to this post (but we’ll see who gets the last laugh, Livan) by allowing just four hits and walking none in 6 1/3 innings. He was the tough-luck loser.
  • Jonny Venters pitched the eighth and Detective Craig Kimbrel (this will be a running joke on BProf—Kindergarten Cop if you’re wondering) pitched a perfect ninth for the save. Note: two strikeouts and zero walks!
  • We also saw four of Washington’s relievers in the losing effort, none of whom were Drew Storen. This bodes well for his full-time closing chances…for now.

Milwaukee Brewers 6 @ Cincinnati Reds 7

  • Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez led off the season with back-to-back homers. This hadn’t been done in baseball in 42 years. Maybe more importantly, Weeks managed to stay healthy for the whole game. One down, 161 to go.
  • Oh, and Gomez’s big fly reinforces the confidence Milwaukee has in him to be their everyday center fielder. Nyjer Morgan owners, feel free to sigh in disgust for the time being.
  • Casey McGehee added two RBI. He’s on pace for 324 this season. While he’ll probably fall a little short of that, I still maintain he’s one of 2011′s best bargains.
  • Edinson Volquez blew it, allowing five runs on three homers in his six innings. Hey, at least he only walked two batters. For anyone who owns Volquez, you won’t want to this season.
  • Damn you, John Axford. You were my only pitcher to go on Thursday so I’m stuck looking at a “54.00″ in my team’s ERA column for the day.
  • Takashi Saito allowed two hits but did strike out two batters. He also looked a lot better than Axford, who’s job could be in jeopardy in the near future.

Los Angeles Angels 4 @ Kansas City Royals 2

  • Jered Weaver picked up where he left off last season, striking out six batters without allowing a run in 6.1 innings.
  • Fernando Rodney‘s job is safe…for another day.
  • After a great spring, Alex Gordon went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts batting third for the Royals.
  • Mike Aviles and Jeff Francoeur homered for Kansas City. Both players could be very valuable this season, particularly if they get at-bats (Francoeur).
  • Luke Hochevar continues to resemble a batting practice pitching machine. He allowed nine hits in his 5.2 innings of work. Eight of the nine Angels starters registered a hit (Mark Trumbo didn’t).

San Diego 5 @ St. Louis 3, F/11

  • Chris Carpenter was great (7 innings, 2 runs, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks). Ryan Franklin wasn’t (game-tying homer to Cameron Maybin). Franklin blew just two of 29 save chances last season.
  • Speaking of Maybin, good to see him have some Major League glory. Better yet, he only struck out once in five at-bats!
  • Tim Stauffer allowed nine hits in six innings but gave up just two runs.
  • Heath Bell saved the game. Reports are he won’t be traded before the team’s next game so owners waiting for Luke Gregerson or Mike Adams to assume the closer’s role will have to wait another day (more sarcasm).

San Francisco Giants 1 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 2

  • The day’s best pitching matchup lived up to the hype. Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum each went seven innings and neither allowed an earned run. Kershaw looked more locked in, striking out nine Giants and walking just one as he threw strikes on 65 of his 96 pitches (67.7%).
  • Jonathan Broxton labored through the ninth inning, allowing a run but still getting the save. Hong-Chi Kuo labored as well, throwing 22 pitches, but walked just one and didn’t allow a run. Let the closer controversy commence!
  • Matt Kemp walked three times and didn’t strike out at all. That sure beats his ratio of 53 walks to 170 strikeouts last season. He also stole a base.
  • Reports of Brandon Belt starting Opening Day were in fact true as Aubrey Huff trotted out to right field with Cody Ross on the 15-day DL. Belt went 1-for-3 with a walk.
  • Pat Burrell partied like it was 2006, hitting an Opening Day homer for the second time in his career. For what it’s worth, he hit 29 home runs that year.
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Drew Stubbs: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 11, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Before I wrote this post, I performed a couple of quick searches on Google and needless to say I was disappointed. There is clearly not enough love out there for Cincinnati Reds’ outfielder Drew Stubbs.

That’s right, despite the bottom of my screen reading “Gooooooooooooooogle,” I was only able to pick out a couple of articles that touted Stubbs as a great value this season. “Grey” from Razzball.com put it best in his Stubbs post, “To think a guy who went 22/30 is a sleeper is laughable in some leagues.”

It’s true. Stubbs may have had the quietest, 20/30 season and it’s because he did most of his damage in the last two months of the season, and some of you may have checked out by then. From August 1, Stubbs batted .308, smashed nine home runs and stole 12 bases in 169 at-bats. Not too shabby.

But back to the problem on hand, how can someone with that kind of power/speed get  no respect amongst the fantasy community? Yahoo! has him ranked 19th among outfielders and he went 81st overall (ahead of his teammate Jay Bruce) in ESPN’s first mock draft. Yet he is being drafted 153rd overall in mock drafts and even Tristan Cockhroft has him 154th in his early top 250 rankings. I’m going to stop before I get angry.

It was just a couple of years ago we were drafting Grady Sizemore and now we have Stubbs, who at 26, is just entering his power prime of his career. In Sizemore’s age-26 season he hit 33 home runs and swiped 38 bases and while that is a very generous projection for Stubbs, I think I’ve driven home the point that Sizemore was a first round pick after that season and Stubbs is going in the 15th round. He screams value.

Now, Stubbs doesn’t come without his faults as his .255 batting average leaves a lot to be desired. He has too many swinging strikes (11.7%) which is why he had the third highest strikeout percentage (32.7) among qualifying hitters. The other two? Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. However, if I had to choose one category for my hitter to be weak in it would be batting average.

What Stubbs brings to the table is a very unique power/speed combo (only three hitters went 20/30 last year) and good R/RBI opportunities in what should be a very good Reds’ offense. Keep in mind that B.J. Upton (83), Corey Hart (88), Delmon Young (93), Curtis Granderson (94), Colby Rasmus (95) and Sizemore (99) are all being drafted five-to-six rounds ahead of Stubbs in mock drafts.

Do yourselves a favor and don’t forget about him on draft day.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.263 BA | 95 R | 26 HR | 73 RBI | 37 SB

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2011 Fantasy Baseball OF Rankings

By on January 27, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

So far we’ve taken care of the 2011 catcher rankings, first base rankings, second base rankings, third base rankings and shortstop rankings. Whew! It’s a lot to take in, but you’ll feel like a better person afterwards. Like they say, you can never over prepare for a draft. Let’s get to the outfielder tiers.

Tier 1

Carl Crawford (BOS), Ryan Braun (MIL), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Matt Holliday (STL), Josh Hamilton (TEX), Matt Kemp (LAD)

Not a lot wrong with this group as Crawford and Braun are sure-fire first rounders. … Gonzalez probably won’t hit .336 again, but his power and speed (34 HR/26 SB) are here to stay. … Holliday will get you Braun’s stats across the board, but 10-15 picks later. … The tier ends with a couple of questions marks in Hamilton‘s health and Kemp‘s work ethic. Even with Kemp having a “down” year, he still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.

Tier 2

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Justin Upton (ARI), Jason Heyward (ATL), Jayson Werth (WAS), Alex Rios (CHW), Jose Bautista (TOR), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Hunter Pence (HOU), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Andre Ethier (LAD), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS),  Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

You can bank on a .300 AVG, 20 HR and 20 SB from Choo, and if the Indians ever surround him with good hitters he will eclipse 180+ R/RBI. … In his third season, Upton regressed a bit towards his rookie form, but he is still only 23 years old so I wouldn’t panic yet. … Heyward is quickly becoming one of the most beloved young hitters over the last decade because of his great plate discipline (14.6 BB%). … It will be interesting to see what Werth does without the Phillies’ offense surrounding him. … After a disappointing 2009 season, Rios came back and finally eclipsed the 20/20 mark everyone was waiting for. …  You can read my take on Jose Bautista‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value. … Ellsbury should be an elite contributor in runs and steals if he bats first for the Red Sox, and he’s a good candidate to hit near .300. … No need to reiterate how I feel about Ichiro‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value.

Tier 3

Mike Stanton (FLA), Jay Bruce (CIN), Shane Victorino (PHI), Chris Young (ARI), Colby Rasmus (STL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), Ben Zobrist (TB), Corey Hart (MIL), Torii Hunter (LAA), Curtis Granderson (NYY), Delmon Young (MIN), B.J. Upton (TB), Nick Markakis (BAL), Bobby Abreu (LAA), Jason Bay (NYM), Angel Pagan (NYM), Adam Jones (BAL)

Stanton‘s power is out-of-this-world and if he can cut down on the Ks (34.3%) and raise that AVG (.259) he can be a top-10 option by year’s end. … It was nice to see Bruce stay healthy for an entire season. Don’t be surprised if he reaches 30 home runs this year. … The Flyin’ Hawaiian traded his batting average for a little extra power last year. Here’s to hoping he realized that it was a mistake. … Look for Stubbs to be a great value in the middle rounds as his 22 HR and 30 SB aren’t easy to find elsewhere. … Hart had a career-year in 2010 and while he didn’t contribute much with his seven steals, I’ll take the 31 HR and 192 R/RBI. … If you read our study on the importance of lineup slots it should be no surprise that Granderson had a down year batting at the bottom of the Yankees’ order. … Bryan Curley gave his thoughts earlier on why Bay is a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

Tier 4

Juan Pierre (CHW), Vernon Wells (LAA), Grady Sizemore (CLE), Denard Span (MIN), Carlos Lee (HOU), Nick Swisher (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHW), Michael Bourn (HOU), Brett Gardner (NYY), Lance Berkman (STL), Jason Kubel (MIN)

Pierre contributes in steals (68) and runs (96), but that’s about it. … Sizemore can still be a useful fantasy contributor so don’t completely disregard him. He is only two years removed from a 30/30 season and has been plagued by injuries the last two seasons. … I expect Span to raise his batting average back to .290-.300, but he brings no power to the table. … Swisher enjoyed himself a fine season in 2010 and while the power (29 HR and 180 R/RBI) is legit the average (.288) might be harder to replicate. Then again, he did change his approach last season.

Tier 5

Austin Jackson (DET), Raul Ibanez (PHI), Magglio Ordonez (DET), Dexter Fowler (COL), Rajai Davis (TOR), Travis Snider (TOR), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Andres Torres (SF), Julio Borbon (TEX), Manny Ramirez (TB), Jose Tabata (PIT), Marlon Byrd (CHC), Chris Coghlan (FLA), J.D.Drew (BOS)

Jackson had a ridiculous .396 BABIP and still only managed a .293 batting average. Not a good sign. … The term post-hype sleeper applies here with Snider as he should get the starting right field job. Last year he hit 14 home runs in just 319 at-bats. … In 2010, Borbon stole four fewer bases in 289 more at-bats. He’s going to have to step up the running if he is going to have any fantasy value. … We have Ramirez‘s projection covered in our 2011 Tampa Bay Rays preview. … Tabata is only 22-years old and is quickly becoming one of Pittsburgh’s many young, bright stars.

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