Tag Archives | Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee Makes Four-of-a-Kind for Phillies

By on December 17, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

Cliff Lee‘s return to the Philadelphia Phillies is a scary sight for the entire National League. With the Lee signing the Phillies now add to their already stacked staff of three aces. In the poker world we call that four-of-a-kind.

It’s no secret that the National League is a pitcher’s league, and if you take what both Lee and Roy Halladay did in their only NL stints, the numbers tell the same story. Both pitchers have combined for 330.1 innings, an ERA of 2.67, and WHIP of 1.04. Even more astonishing is the strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.3. Not since Curt Schilling in 2006 has a pitcher not named Lee or Halladay surpassed a ratio of six.

Sprinkle in the seasons that Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt had last year and this pitching rotation is by far the most dominant in not only the Major Leagues, but in fantasy baseball as well. You could make a strong case that all four pitchers could be used as an SP1 or SP2 because they are all low-WHIP guys who know how to strike a batter out.

This got me thinking about other teams with great pitching rotations suited for fantasy baseball.

San Francisco Giants

With Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have two bona fide aces in their rotation. Following these two perennial studs is Jonathan Sanchez, an elite strikeouts pitcher who’s coming off a career year where he posted bests in ERA (3.07), WHIP (1.23), and strikeouts (205). … Don’t forget about Madison Bumgarner who not only had a 3.00 ERA and 3.66 FIP in 111 Major League innings, but also posted a 2.18 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 20 2/3 postseason innings.

St. Louis Cardinals

Besides having one of the best pitching coaches in the game, the Cardinals boast one of the best 1-2 combos with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Wainwright makes a strong case for Best Pitcher in the Game, and Carpenter is an ace when healthy. The Cardinals also have 2010 rookie phenom Jaime Garcia, who posted a 2.70 ERA and 3.41 FIP in 163 1/3 innings last season. And don’t discount Jake Westbrook whose fantasy value returned when he was acquired by the Cardinals and posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 12 starts.

Oakland Athletics

There’s a lot of youth but a lot of upside in this staff and it starts with their ace, Brett Anderson. He was on his way to a great encore following his rookie year, but elbow ailments derailed his season. Still, he should be able to bounce back as long as he is healthy. The next two guys, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, are both under 26 years old and have mastered the very beneficial art of inducing ground balls. If both pitchers can stick to what worked for them so well in 2010, you can expect very similar success this coming year. … Finally we have Dallas Braden, who threw a perfect game and, despite an 11-14 record, actually posted some good numbers (3.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox boast one of the game’s best lefties at the top of their rotation in Jon Lester , but after that it’s a bunch of big names with question marks as big as their contracts. Will Josh Beckett get healthy and return to his top 15 form? How will John Lackey respond after a very bland first season in Boston? Clay Buchholz. Thankfully for fantasy fanatics everywhere, we will address these questions in the coming months. Oh, and then there’s Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was probably one of the most inconsistent starters in 2010 and can’t be relied upon to be any better than a back-of-the-rotation guy.

Atlanta Braves

Last year, Tim Hudson partied like it was 2008 and induced ground balls a ridiculous 64.1 percent of the time. If he can keep that number up around 60, there is no reason he won’t succeed in 2011. While Tommy Hanson had a worse year in terms of ERA (3.33), he actually improved his walk rate (2.49 BB/9) and had a better FIP (3.31). Look for him to be a nice value in the middle rounds of your draft. I’ve never been a huge fan of Jair Jurrjens, but you could do worse than him in the middle of your rotation. Mike Minor showed some flashes of brilliance in 2010 and he could be a nice sleeper in 2011. Derek Lowe is nearing the end of the road, but he upped his strikeouts and lowered his walks last year. Maybe he’s got one more serviceable year under his belt.

Sleeper Alert: Toronto Blue Jays

Bryan Curley wrote about the implications of the Shaun Marcum trade last week, but this staff still has plenty of quality arms. Last season, Ricky Romero improved in all the right categories by increasing his strikeout rate from 7.13 to 7.46, lowering his walk rate from 3.99 to 3.51, and lowering his FIP from 4.33 to 3.64. Look for this former first-round pick to keep soaring towards stardom. Brett Cecil is another lefty in the deceptively deep Toronto rotation who has gone from waiver-wire fodder to a steady back-of-the-rotation guy. He dramatically improved his walk rate from 3.66 to 2.81 and had a 15-7 record in the tough AL East, which shows that he is trending in the right direction. Brandon Morrow is a pitcher who knows how to strike a batter out (10.95 K/9) and his 3.10 FIP was well below his 4.49 ERA. You can credit his newfound success to somebody finally deciding whether or not he’s a starter or a reliever. Note to the AL: this guy’s a starter. It’s only a matter of time before he becomes a fantasy stud.Enhanced by Zemanta

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Cliff Lee: The Most Efficient Pitcher in the World

By on July 18, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

I was watching last night’s Red Sox-Rangers game and as Cliff Lee was retiring hitter after hitter after hitter I kept thinking to myself is this guy really this good? It wasn’t just the outs, but it was how he was getting them. Four times he retired the side in order in fewer than 10 pitches, which allowed him to enter the ninth inning with a pitch count of 85 pitches.

Unfortunately he allowed the tying run in the ninth, which spoiled his chance for a complete game victory, but that outing got me thinking; Cliff Lee doesn’t get enough respect in fantasy baseball these days.

When thinking of the top pitchers in baseball the names Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright come regularly into the conversation. Then you have the up-and-coming guys like Jon Lester, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson knocking on their door.

Where does that leave poor Cliff Lee? He’s only won a Cy Young award and has been the hottest pitching commodity during the last two trade deadlines.

And yet, people don’t seem to give him the credit he deserves because right now he is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He has pitched as many complete games as league leader Roy Halladay in five fewer starts and leads the league with a 0.94 WHIP.

On Wednesday, I named him one of the best values among starting pitchers so far in fantasy baseball and keep in mind that he missed all of April with an oblique injury.

A couple of things stand out when you look at Cliff Lee’s peripherals. First, his 13.85 K/BB ratio is off the charts as he bests second place Roy Halladay (6.74 K/BB) by a healthy margin. Cliff Lee is helped by his Brett Saberhagen-like control (7 BB in 121 2/3 IP) and his ability to get ahead of hitters (70 % F-Strike percentage), which allows him to go deeper into games thus increasing his chance to rack up the wins.

Lee is one of those pitchers that does everything right and while he doesn’t put up gaudy strikeout numbers, the gains in all the other categories make him more valuable than guys like Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez.

For the rest of the season I would rank Lee fifth among starting pitchers behind Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson.

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Mound Visit – SP Top 50, Week 5

By on May 4, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

Last week I didn’t get a chance to compile my weekly ratings until Thursday, so we’re operating on a four-day week. Even though a couple guys on this list didn’t get a chance to make a start, most of them did and it was enough to drastically shuffle up some portions of the rankings.

Jon Lester seems to be getting back on track with two straight outings without allowing a run, barely holding off Ubaldo Jimenez‘s assault on the top 10.

And remember when I said Dan Haren, C.C. Sabathia and Adam Wainwright would likely flip-flop all season? Well, all three occupy new spots in the rankings this week with Sabathia taking the lead.

Matt Garza continues to climb, but he may have reached his peak. I love his potential, but I have a hard time envisioning him as a borderline top-10 player.

I wrote a mini post this week about Jonathan Sanchez and how he draws comparisons (statistically) to A.J. Burnett. Sanchez checks in at 41 this week while Burnett finds himself 15 spots higher at 26. The large gap is due to Burnett’s history, but in reality all of the players wedged in between the two are very close.

Before we get into the individual player spotlights, let’s take a quick look at our three newcomers. Barry Zito, Phil Hughes and Colby Lewis all join the rankings at 48, 49 and 50, respectively. I’ve been hesitant to add all three for a variety of reasons, but I couldn’t ignore their success anymore. Zito has been impressive over his last 35-plus starts dating back to 2009, and Lewis is finally living up to the potential he had years ago. As for Hughes, the Yankees intend to limit his innings but that isn’t a major concern early in the season. However, it will prevent him from ascending too high.

Oh, and because it’s a short week we’re not going to overreact. There will be just two “Surging” and “Falling” players each.

Surging

Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners

I have long been irrationally skeptical of Lee, and I can admit that. I’m always afraid the old 5.00 ERA starter will re-emerge even though he’s done nothing to warrant those fears. Lee has consistently fallen in my rankings as others around him have succeeded. After going seven innings with eight strikeouts and only two hits allowed, Lee is on the move.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Many of Cain’s 2009 peripherals suggested he may be due for regression, but that’s not been the case so far. Whereas his FIP was exactly a run higher than his actual ERA last season, the gap has narrowed considerably this year while Cain still posts a sub-3.00 ERA. He only has one win, which isn’t unexpected with the Giants’ offense backing him, but his walk rate is down to 1.99 BB/9. We know he can get a lot of people out, and now it looks like he’s done issuing free passes.

Falling

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

I was very high on Hamels entering 2010, but he has just one quality start in five games so far. He’s striking out a lot of batters (10.57 K/9) but his OBA is nearly identical to last season. There are some signs that Hamels has been unlucky so far – high BABIP with depressed LD% – but I’m going to need to see some success.

Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees

Vazquez landed here last week so I didn’t want to put him here again, but then news broke that he would be missing his next scheduled start against Boston to work on his mechanics. That initiated another drop in the rankings.

On the mend

Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves

The strained hamstring isn’t too serious, but Bobby Cox has pushed his start back to May 8. Hopefully he’ll give you a nice boost as fantasy weeks wrap up this weekend, but it’s a little risky banking on him to a) be effective, b) go deep into his outing or c) actually start the game (who knows if there will be a setback).

Down on the farm

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

Don’t forget about the flame-throwing Cuban. So far in his professional career, Chapman has struck out 30 batters in 26 innings, but he’s also issued 13 walks. His 3.12 ERA is pretty solid, but he’ll need better control to be successful in the Majors. With rookie Mike Leake succeeding in the Reds’ rotation (2-1, 2.94 ERA), there’s no rush to get Chapman up.

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Mound Visit – SP Top 50, Week 4

By on May 1, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Youngsters are dominating the starting pitching rankings, and it all begins with Ubaldo Jimenez.

Just last week I wrote this about Jimenez:

I just don’t see anybody really knocking on the door of the top 10 right now. That first tier of starters is too good and has too much potential for anyone else to infiltrate their elite brotherhood – yes, not even one of the most hyped starters of 2010 who also just threw a no-hitter. Sometimes life isn’t fair.

It’s amazing what one or two starts can do for my confidence. Justin Verlander just isn’t doing it for me this season – although he will most definitely improve as his walk rate is higher than his career norms and his strand rate (LOB%) is a little low – and Jimenez compiled his third straight runless outing.

While we’re on the subject of LOB%, it is worth noting that Jimenez’s is an absurdly high 91.7 percent so that will certainly correct itself, but the Rockies’ ace still has worked an impressive 2.52 FIP so far.

But Jimenez isn’t the only young starter trending up. Jeff Niemann and Clay Buchholz both jumped at least five spots, and two of Niemann’s teammates, David Price and Matt Garza, continued their weekly ascent, moving up one spot apiece.

However, if youth isn’t this week’s main storyline, then injuries certainly are.

Cliff Lee made his first start coming back from injury/suspension this week, going seven strong innings allowing just three hits while striking out eight, and Ted Lilly worked has had two starts with mixed results.

On the other end of the spectrum are Jorge de la Rosa, Jair Jurrjens, and Brett Anderson who all have injury concerns of their own now. Anderson and de la Rosa find themselves on the DL, but Jurrjens is still expected to make his next start.

And sorry to all you NL only-ers. All of this weeks highlighted players are from the AL.

Surging

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

Back in week one, Liriano barely cracked the inaugural top 50 list, sliding in at number 46. In week two he moved up to 38, and week three saw him at 34. I’ve seen enough. The injuries are a lingering concern, but I can’t ignore Liriano’s potential anymore, especially if the likes of Cole Hamels and Javier Vazquez continue to disappoint… just to name two of this season’s early strugglers.

John Danks, Chicago White Sox

Danks is ranked fifth among all starting pitchers in my Yahoo! league right now, and he’s shut down some pretty potent offenses. The White Sox lefty has notched two wins, a 1.29 ERA and a 21-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three starts (21 innings) against Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Toronto who also rank first, seventh and 11th in runs scored, respectively. His next test? The New York Yankees.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

Hopefully I don’t need to remind you of the immense potential Buchholz has, but I’ll do it anyway – this is the kid who threw a no-hitter in just his second Major League start. While minor league success hasn’t eluded Buchholz, maturity has, and most believe it’s the reason behind his slow and staggered development. I’m ready to believe his 2.19 ERA and 8.0 K/9 are signs he’s finally reaching that potential.

Falling

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

Maybe it’s because I’m a Red Sox fan, but I’ve been holding out hope that Beckett would quickly turn things around. With 15 earned runs in his last two starts (10 innings), I had to drop him. His velocity is down (marginally), but it has also been on the decline each season since 2006. Still, he’s a proven strikeout pitcher with a solid defense and a pretty good offense backing him, so buy low if you can.

Javier Vazquez, New York Yankees

Big Apple, Part Two hasn’t gone as Yankees’ fans hoped. Vazquez’s control has be dreadful, evidenced by his 5.0 BB/9 so far, and his velocity is down from 91.1 mph last year to 88.9 mph this year. Interestingly, the average velocity of his curveball (74.1) and change-up (80.4) are both higher than last year. This means the gap between his fastball velocity and his off-speed velocity is narrowing, reducing the effectiveness of each. That’s not a recipe for success in the American League.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

No non-Yankee’s failures have made me happier than those of Jake Peavy, and I’m alright with admitting it. Why do I smile each time Peavy is taken yard or issues another walk? Maybe it’s because few people wanted to listen to reason when I explained that he’s never pitched well outside of Petco Park. Maybe it’s because I had the White Sox listed at 20th in my pre-season power rankings and I was absolutely assaulted by a few fans of the South Siders who claimed Peavy pushed their rotation over the top and into the echelon of St. Louis, Boston (although we aren’t seeing it), San Francisco, Seattle, and the Yankees. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s because I like being right.

On the mend

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics

On Wednesday, April 28, the USA Today reported that Brett Anderson will be shut down completely for two weeks with a strained flexor tendon. As you’ve noticed all season, I like Anderson’s top-20 potential, and he’ll likely miss four to five starts while on the DL. Anderson fell just two spots to 22 this week, but he’ll likely fall noticeably lower during his absence, especially if those around him pitch well.

Down on the farm

Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles

Tillman missed out on the Orioles’ Opening Day rotation, but it wasn’t for lack of talent. That talent was on full display Wednesday as Tillman threw a no-hitter for Triple-A Norfolk. Obviously this outing deserves mentioning, and it’s why Tillman is highlighted in this week’s column, but his 2010 season hasn’t been all rainbows and sunshine. Entering Wednesday, the Orioles’ top prospect had compiled a 6.11 ERA in four previous starts. With the Big League club fading fast and their rotation in shambles, Tillman could get an earlier-than-expected call-up, but he’ll need to show he’s ready first.

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Apr. 10: Chris Carpenter Pushed Back to Sunday, Aaron Hill Still Out, and Rangers Stick with Julio Borbon

By on April 10, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

It’s Saturday, which means you’d better be sitting in front of your TV all day with the DirecTV Extra Innings package. Even if you aren’t, check out the Fantasy Headlines for Saturday, April 10:

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Apr. 8: Cliff Lee Making Progress, Hideki Matsui to Start In Left, and Nelson Figueroa to Philly

By on April 8, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

The season is starting to gain momentum, and so are we. Here are the Fantasy Headlines for Thursday, April 8:

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Mound Visit – SP Top 50, Week 1

By on April 7, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

On March 2, we released our 2010 starting pitching tier rankings.

In the five weeks in between, we’ve seen some surprisingly dominant performances and some lingering injury concerns, both of which have had an effect on our top 50 rankings for starting pitchers.

The top 10 remain relatively unchanged, the only difference being Jon Lester‘s 200-plus strikeouts supplanting Chris Carpenter‘s dominant ERA and WHIP. However, the top 10 are only a small portion of the pitchers we need to be concerned with, so in this weekly article we’ll profile the position as a whole and name some players who are rising or falling as well as updating injury situations and bringing up a few names in the minors that you’ll soon need to know.

Surging

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins

In our composite preseason tier rankings, George, Chris and I had Nolasco ranked 24th among starters and knocking on the door of tier two. With an absolutely lights-out spring (25.1 IP, 21 K, 1 BB, 1.78 ERA) and great peripherals in 2009, I’m pushing the Marlins co-ace up 11 spots to 13. Among all starters I have ranked from 12 on, Nolasco has as much or more upside than any of them, and that goes for Tommy Hanson and Brett Anderson as well. Nolasco was eighth in xFIP last season despite an ERA over 5.00 and he has impeccable control. In fact, his strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last two seasons is 4.43. If you’re not letting batters put the ball in play and you aren’t issuing free passes, you’re going to put up great numbers.

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics

I just mentioned Anderson in passing, but he is more than an afterthought. Our composite tier rankings had him ranked 31st, but I’m pushing him up to 19. If you haven’t noticed I’m a sucker for potential, but I’m not an idiot. Anderson is as good an option as any pitcher outside of the top tier because he has dominant stuff and plenty of poise on the mound. His strikeout-to-walk ratio as a rookie was 3.33, which is good, but it pales in comparison to his 5.06 career minor league ratio. Plus, Anderson finished strong last year with a 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 86 strikeouts in 88 second-half innings. Even if he fails to improve upon those numbers during his sophomore season, you’re still looking at a top-30 starter. I’ll take the chance he can be better.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins

Liriano had 30 strikeouts in 20 innings this spring. His stuff looked better than it has since surgery derailed his promising career, and you can still get him at a reduced price. Every fantasy owner should be trying to buy this guy right now, and the only thing hurting his ranking is the uncertainty that comes along with his left arm. If healthy Liriano could provide a return as a top-10 starter, but he could also blow up in April and spend the rest of the season trying to come back.

Falling

Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners

I’ll admit I am still skeptical over Lee’s success these last two seasons. He won a Cy Young Award in the American League and then was traded to a hitter’s haven in Philadelphia and pitched better than ever. Why am I so nervous about this guy? Honestly, I shouldn’t be, but his recent injury is finally giving me an excuse to not like Lee. As Chris said in our podcast preview of starters, an oblique injury is particularly troubling for a pitcher. You can’t mask the pain or change your delivery to lessen the strain since every pitch involves a twisting motion. I think it’s fair to say that reduced velocity and bite on his pitches is a legitimate concern, and until he proves he’s healthy, I’m not risking a top pick on Lee.

Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Any surprise here? Webb’s timetable keeps getting pushed back – or so it seems – but that may be more of an illusion than anything. Team doctors said Webb was overly optimistic about an early-April return so when news came out that he was going to be sidelined longer, fantasy owners didn’t take it well. Still, I don’t like taking a chance on a starter who made one start last year and has taken over a full 12 months to recover.

Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins

To be fair, I thought it was a bit premature to put a red arrow next to Johnson’s name. Consider this his final warning. I’ve been cautioning fans all winter about relying too heavily on Johnson’s overworked right arm, and then he comes up empty against the Mets in the season opener. With four walks and four earned runs in five innings pitched – including a home run to David Wright – Johnson was far from the ace he needs to be, both for the Marlins and for fantasy owners. He’s barely clinging onto top-20 status as Cole Hamels, Hanson and Anderson are ready to jump at the chance to pass one of 2009′s breakout starters.

On the mend

Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs

Original reports said that Lilly would miss all of April and return sometime in May. Go ahead and push that timetable up a month. Lilly is scheduled to join the Cubs’ rotation before the end of April, and he’ll immediately assume his former role of “most underrated fantasy starter.” Why don’t people take this guy more seriously? In his three seasons with the Cubs, Lilly is 44-22 with an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.15. Seriously. Why?

Down on the farm

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays

You can’t say enough about the job that the current Rays ownership has done with this once embarrassing franchise. They changed the team’s name and logo, reinventing the organization and reinvigorating the public, but then they were able to follow that up with a complete overhaul of their management philosophy. Instead of signing high-priced, over-the-hill veterans like Wade Boggs, Vinny Castilla and Fred McGriff, they elected to build from within with solid drafts and outstanding player development. The result is a yearly title contender that somehow keeps getting better.

Behind the current batch of potential stars, guys like Wade Davis, David Price, James Shields, Carl Crawford, Ben Zobrist, and Matt Garza (even though he came over in a trade for another highly touted prospect, Delmon Young), there is another set of future stars. Leading this bunch is the oft-named but not-currently-valued Jeremy Hellickson. Should Davis falter or someone goes down with an injury and a rotation spot opens up, there is a good chance the Rays could call up Hellickson. In 461 minor-league innings, all Hellickson has done is post a 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.07. His MLB.com scouting report only adds fuel to the fanfare:

Stuff plus a feel for pitching can be a lethal combination and Hellickson has them both. He can get his fastball into the mid 90s and he can throw both his curve and changeup for strikes, the latter of the two now a plus offering. He’s got great command and goes right after hitters.

When he gets a chance, Hellickson is a must-add along the lines of Mat Latos, Brian Matusz, and fellow-Ray, Davis.

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