Tag Archives | Cliff Lee

2012 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Rankings, 21-40

By on September 15, 2011 | Comments { 4 }

I wanted to get these posted yesterday but work and other commitments set me behind. To thank you for bearing with me, I’ll also be releasing the top 20 keeper rankings for 2012 later today.

As always, players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

RankPlayerAgePositionProfessor's Note
21Dustin Pedroia282BNew career highs in HR/RBI/SB this season and in his prime at 28
22David Wright293B'10 bounceback year is still what I expect from star at shallow position
23Felix Hernandez25SPYou know you're good when a 3.30 ERA is a "down" year
24Jered Weaver29SPClearly trending in the right direction
25Cliff Lee33SPHe might be the best pitcher on a staff that includes Roy Halladay
26Andrew McCutchen25OFBA doesn't worry me; he's a .285+ hitter who hasn't peaked yet
27Carl Crawford30OFCareer body of work is too impressive for me to think '11 is the new norm
28Jay Bruce24OF4-year pro is still just 24 years old and is closing in on a 30/100 season
29Mike Stanton22OFHe'll have many years atop the NL HR charts
30Cole Hamels28SPChanged his approach (more cutters) and took his game to a new level
31C.C. Sabathia31SP20-win workhorse currently has a career-best ERA (2.93)
32Tim Lincecum27SPStill a great SP but WHIP is only average
33Ian Kinsler292BPerennial 30/30 threat delivers when healthy
34Ryan Zimmerman273BI still think he's pretty close to a .300/30/100 guy
35Matt Holliday32OFJust 1 SB this year? Age might be catching up with him
36Stephen Strasburg23SPComplete upside pick but boy, is there upside
37Zack Greinke28SPSecond half stats are phenomenal; he'll be fine in Milwaukee
38Dan Haren31SPToss out the first half of '10 (w/ ARI) and he's been elite for 5 years
39Josh Hamilton30OFScary-good when he plays but how often will he play?
40Mark Teixeira311BR/HR/RBI combo is lethal, but .250-ish BA is what to expect these days

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Twice is Nice: Jered Weaver takes top spot for Week 4

By on April 24, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

After a brief hiatus last week, we are back to tell you which pitchers to start in the fourth week of the season. Jered Weaver takes over the number one spot and we see Matt Cain rocket up to a top five spot while Jaime Garcia makes it as a top 15 option. Once again there are a lot of great pitching matchups so stream away!

The Top 20

1. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels — (vs. OAK, @TB)

So 2010 seems like it was the real deal. Weaver get’s an easy matchup with basball’s fifth worst offense in terms of OPS (.647) and then gets to face a Rays lineup that has struck out the ninth most times (150).

2. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies — (@ARI, vs. NYM)

3. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants — (@PIT, @WAS)

Cain makes a huge leap into the top five because of weak competition. The Pirates (.663 OPS, 169 K) and Nationals (.638 OPS) have little to brag about offensively and Cain could have a big strikeout week.

4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners — (@DET, @BOS)

5. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels — (vs. OAK)

6. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco — (@PIT)

7. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies — (vs. NYM)

8. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers — (vs. SEA)

9. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers — (@FLA)

10. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves — (@SD)

11. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies — (vs. PIT)

Ubaldo took all of one inning to shake off the rust when he came off the DL last week. Now, he is ready to go and is facing a struggling Pirates offense. I can feel a seven-inning, 10-strikeout performance coming.

12. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox — (@BAL)

13. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis — (@HOU, @ATL)

Garcia is off to another great start and should continue with a favorable one against the sorry Astros offense. One reason for caution is that he struggled through his last two starts and pitches better at home than on the road. Still, with two starts, Garcia is a top 15 pitcher for this week.

14. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays — (vs. LAA)

15. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins — (@CIN)

Johnson has been nearly unhittable this season (.112 BA), but his competition has been fairly easy. Three of his four starts have been at home and against the Mets, Nationals and Pirates. The Reds will be his first true test of the season so I have some reservations putting Johnson in the top 10. Obviously you are still starting him and expecting a good outing nonetheless.

16. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees — (vs. CHW)

17. Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers — (vs. SD)

Kuroda has already faced the Padres this year and was just one out away from a shut out. He struck out four batters and allowed six hits and two walks. You can expect much of the same this time around as the Padres offense is one of the worst in the league.

18. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals — (@ATL)

19. Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers — (@HOU)

20. Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics — (@LAA, vs. TEX)

Gonzalez is pitching as advertised; great stuff, but struggles with control. He currently has a 23:13 K:BB ratio, which is good for him. This week he gets two starts and even though one is against the tough Rangers offense, he has a 2.09 ERA in six starts against them in his career.

Pitchers I Like

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals — (@HOU) — We touted Lohse first as an NL-only pickup, but now he should be owned in mixed leagues as well. He gets to face a below average offense in Houston and should continuethis hot start.

Bruce Chen, Kansas City Royals — (vs. MIN) — The Twins struggle mightily against lefties (.564 OPS). Bruce Chen is a lefty. Chen has also been quietly very effective this season with three straight quality starts and he should extend that to four after this week.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves — (@SD, vs. STL)  — Lowe was on a tear before his start against the Dodgers in which he lasted only three innings while giving up five runs. I think he gets back on track with an easy matchup against the Padres and then you hope he’s at least serviceable against the Cardinals.

Pitchers I Don’t Like

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves — (vs. STL) — Albert Pujols (.462 BA), Matt Holliday (.375), Lance Berkman (.500) and Colby Rasmus (.556). Those are their career batting averages against Hudson, which tells me that you should probably sit him this week.

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians — (vs. KC, vs. DET) — I have a feeling that Masterson’s run is over and he will be back to waiver wire duties soon enough. Lefties are starting to get to him a little more now, which is what his problem has been his entire career. He’s been very good so far, but once his control goes he is due for some ugly outings.

Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks — (vs. PHI, vs. CHC) — Hudson’s biggest problem this year is his control (4.44 BB/9). Given that his walk rate throughout his whole career hovered around 2.7, I have to think that this is a fluke. Other than the walks, Hudson is striking out a ton of batters (9.64 K/9) and FIP (3.55), xFIP (3.68) and tERA (4.24) are all well below his actual ERA of 5.92. This could be the week he turns it around as the Phillies and Cubs are both in the bottom 10 in walks, but until Hudson shows the problem is behind him I would advise to sit. Just keep believing.

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Thursday's Recap: Mauer lands on 15-day DL

By on April 15, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Joe Mauer is the king of two things; hitting for a high batting average and having unique injuries. Yesterday, he added a new one to the list—weak legs.

Laugh all you want, but right now there is very little information as to how serious this injury actually is, but with a .235 batting average, no home runs and only four RBI, it’s clear that Mauer hasn’t been himself.

If you own Mauer, there’s nothing you can do but wait…and wait…and wait. Luckily there are plenty of options on the waiver wire in mixed leagues at the position. Take a look at Carlos Ruiz (28% ESPN, 49% Yahoo), Nick Hundley (22% ESPN, 29% Yahoo), Alex Avila (7% ESPN, 23% Yahoo) and J.P. Arencibia (50% ESPN, 51% Yahoo). I like Avila the best for power and Ruiz for overall package.

Three Up

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL - 5-for-8, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI

Cliff Lee, SP, PHI - CG, 3 H, 0 ER, BB, 12 K

Carl Pavano, SP, MIN - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Three Down

Joe Nathan/Matt Capps, RP, MIN - 1 1/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, HR, BB

Phil Hughes, SP, NYY - 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, HR, 0 BB, 2 K

Ian Desmond, SS, WAS - 0-for-4, 3 K

Notes:

  • Can we stop already with Ricky Nolasco? It might just be that his second half in 2008 was a smoke screen and we need to stop waiting for that production to come back. Nolasco is a great K:BB ratio guy, but that can only get you so far when you let up more than one hit per inning every year. He is a rich man’s Jason Hammel.
  • Ride the Jamey Carroll wave while you can because this hot streak is nothing more than that—a hot streak. While Carroll has 11 hits in his last 28 at-bats (.393), it’s mostly because of a ridiculously high line-drive rate despite swinging at 27.5 percent of pitches outside the strike zone (17% career rate). If you lost Rafael Furcal, Carroll is a decent fill-in, but I would rather have guys like Asdrubal Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Willie Bloomquist.
  • I love Gio Gonzalez’s 0.75 ERA and 50-percent ground ball rate so far this season, but his 5.68 walk rate shows that he still isn’t making progress in his control. Hopefully Gonzalez can figure things out on that end soon because there’s  a very special pitcher waiting to come out. He has ace potential, but the walks need to be cut in half for that to happen.
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Twice is Nice: King Felix reigns supreme in Week 2

By on April 9, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Boston, St. Louis, Minnesota and Tampa Bay out of the top 20 in runs scored? Cleveland and Kansas City in the top 10?

It was an interesting week that has seen a lot of the improbable happen and I’m sure it will continue. The Red Sox and Rays got off to historically bad starts, while St. Louis lost Matt Holliday after opening day and Albert Pujols has been horrible at the plate. OK, that last one just makes no sense.

Meanwhile, the Indians have scored the fourth-most runs (44) in the majors and the Royals have 14 steals, which is five more than the second-place White Sox (9).

I wouldn’t read too much into the start of the season; Pujols will hit and the Red Sox and Rays will get back on track, while the Indians and Royals will fade into nothingness. However, with the top offenses struggling, it’s time to capitalize on those favorable pitching matchups and you will notice that there are a lot of them this week.

The Top 20

1. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners – (TOR, @KC)

King Felix is back on top where he rightfully belongs. A very favorable matchup against Kansas City will boost his value and he should be a good bet to strike out over 15 batters for the week with at least one win.

2. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals – (@ARI, @LAD)

3. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels – (CLE, @CHW)

4. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers – (TEX, @OAK)

5. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies – (@WAS)

6. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies – (@WAS)

Halladay and Lee both have great matchups, but fall to fifth and sixth on the list because of their one-start week. It will be a great start though as the Nationals have a team OPS of .634 so far this season.

7. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants – (LAD)

8. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – (STL)

9. Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers – (@PIT, @WAS)

10. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers – (@WAS)

Last week I touted Gallardo for his strikeout potential, but coming into his third start of the week, he had only struck out four batters in two starts. It’s still too early to tell if he is changing the type of pitcher he is, but it’s worth it to keep in the back of your mind and look out for it continuing.

11. Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins – (@ATL)

12. Jered Weaver Los Angeles Angels – (@CHW)

13. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox – (TB)

Despite matching up with the Rays’ ace (David Price), Lester is in good position to have a very good start this week. The Tampa Bay lineup has looked lost without Evan Longoria and Lester pitched great in his last start against Cleveland. Keep in mind that Tampa Bay is tied for the third most strikeouts in the majors (59) so far.

14. Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox – (OAK, LAA)

15. Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves – (FLA)

Over the last three years, Hudson has struck out 5.54 batter per nine, but that number goes way up to 8.53 when he faces the Marlins.  He also owns a 3.45 ERA against the Marlins over that same span.

16. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees – (TEX)

17. Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics – (@CHW, DET)

Cahill faces a tough Chicago offense in a hitter’s ballpark, but he is the type of pitcher than can cripple a team’s offense with his ability to induce ground balls. Plus, the White Sox will be without Adam Dunn.

18. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals – (@LAD) Thu–@LAD (Kuroda)

19. Brett Myers (HOU) – (CHC, SD)

Last year, Myers went 8-0 with a 2.01 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 87:22 K:BB ratio at home. He hasn’t pitched there yet this year, but he’s looked good in his two road starts and gets to face the 23-ranked Padres offense (.625 OPS).

20. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies – (FLA) Fri–FLA (Vazquez)

Some Pitchers I Like

Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays – (@SEA) – While he will have a tough time winning against last year’s Cy Young winner, Romero has looked great this year (2 GS, 1.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and made me look like a genius for touting him so much in the preseason. That being said, he gets another great matchup this week playing in a pitching environment against a bad offense. He may not get the win, but he won’t disappoing elsewhere.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies – (CHC) – Chacin induced 15 ground balls in his first start against the Dodgers, showing his great ability to keep the ball on the ground. However, through seven games, the Cubs have hit the sixth fewest ground balls (79) in the majors. Something’s gotta give and I’m willing to bet Chacin gets the best of this lineup.

Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds – (@SD, PIT) – It’s strikeouts you want? Volquez has 13 strikeouts in 11 innings so far and will face the Pirates who lead the league in strikeouts (73) and the Padres who rank 17th with 48. Volquez hasn’t looked great otherwise so make sure you brace yourself for a potential high ERA and WHIP, but the potential is there for a monster week.

Brian Duensing, Minnesota Twins – (KC, @TB) – Compared to the Yankees, the Royals and Rays offenses will seem like a piece of cake for Duensing. He surprisingly struck out seven batters against New York, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he struck out a combined seven batters this week. His real appeal here is a chance for a low ERA and WHIP and two decent win opportunities.

Ted Lilly, Los Angeles Dodgers – (@SF) – This is more of a gut call, but I think Lilly gets on track this week against the Giants. The Giants offense has been pretty good so far, posting a .778 OPS, but that number dips to .570 when facing left-handed pitching. Look for Lilly to right the ship.

Some Pitchers I Don’t Like

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins – (KC) – With how the Royals are mashing left-handed pitching (1.039 OPS in 67 AB) and the way Liriano has been struggling this year, I wouldn’t call this an automatic start situation. Sometimes stats tell more of a story than just the name.

Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers  – (@DET, @NYY) – Yikes, Ogando is still getting used to his starting role in Texas and this week he has to travel to Detroit and New York? Not only does he face two very good offenses, but he is up against Justin Verlander and A.J. Burnett, making his win potential very low.

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays – (@BOS, MIN) – Hellickson has two matchups against struggling offenses, but this isn’t last week. Both offenses should wake up soon and when they do—watch out. Hellickson struck out 10 batters in 5 2/3 innings last week against the Angels, but he still lost the game and gave up six hits and two walks. He also allowed 10 fly balls compared to just three ground balls, which will be a problem in Fenway Park.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball SP Rankings

By on January 28, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

It’s time to look at those players who contribute to your wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. So far we’ve tackled our 2011 catcher rankings, first base rankings, second base rankings, third base rankings, shortstop rankings and outfield rankings. Pitching is half the game so remember to know your pitchers just as well as you know your batters. To help with that preparation, here is our 2011 starting pitching rankings broken up into tiers. You can also see our rankings un-tierified on our 2011 projections page.

Tier 1

Roy Halladay (PHI), Adam Wainwright (STL), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Tim Lincecum (SF), Cliff Lee (PHI)

Halladay is a workhorse who had his best season last year as a member of the Phillies. … Wainwright has steadily improved every year to become one of the game’s best. … The best pitcher in the American League, Hernandez proves that you don’t need to win 20 games to be a fantasy ace. … A down year for Lincecum was the result of a poor August. He pitched lights out in September and all through the World Series. … Lee moves once again from the American League to the best team in the National League. Twenty wins is within reach.

Tier 2

Jon Lester (BOS), C.C. Sabathia (NYY), Zack Greinke (MIL), Josh Johnson (FLA), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)

A strikeout machine, Lester is now backed by one of the league’s most feared offenses. … Sabathia’s durability and win potential make him a top 10 starter. … Now that Greinke is pitching for a National League contender, his numbers should be more similar to 2009 than to 2010. … Johnson has tier one stuff, but durability issues drop him to tier two. … With an improving walk rate and ability to go deeper into games, Kershaw can become an anchor to your pitching staff. … Jimenez‘s season was a tale of two halves, but his ability to induce grounders and strikeout batters makes him elite. Two of our experts debated which player you’d rather have.

Tier 3

Jered Weaver (LAA), Justin Verlander (DET), Cole Hamels (PHI), David Price (TB), Chris Carpenter (STL), Matt Cain (SF), Mat Latos (SD), Yovani Gallardo (MIL), Francisco Liriano (MIN), Tommy Hanson (ATL), Dan Haren (LAA), Brett Anderson (OAK), Roy Oswalt (PHI)

As you can see by the talent in this tier, starting pitching is as deep as James Earl Jones’ voice. Weaver finally put it all together for a full season and led the majors in strikeouts. … With a FIP consistently lower than his ERA it wouldn’t surprise me if Verlander got his ERA in the low 3.00s. … Hamels got back to throwing fewer fastballs last year and thrived. … Like all successful young guns, Price has learned how to throw strikes and work into the later innings. … Carpenter doesn’t post good strikeout numbers anymore but he’s great everywhere else. … Cain will give you 200 innings and somehow he always manages to outperform his FIP. … Latos had a terrific rookie season but his innings jump has me slightly concerned for 2011. … Having a good pitching staff around Gallardo should help prevent another second-half swoon. … At an average of 93.7 MPH, Liriano’s fastball is almost to where it was in his magical 2006 season. …  Hanson’s second half numbers: 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .205 BAA. … After being traded to the Angels, Haren compiled a 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. … If Anderson can stay healthy, he’s primed for a big season. … Oswalt’s move to Philadelphia in the middle of the last year couldn’t have helped his fantasy owners more.

Tier 4

Josh Beckett (BOS), Matt Garza (CHC), Shaun Marcum (MIL), Clay Buchholz (BOS), Tim Hudson (ATL),  Max Scherzer (DET), Ted Lilly (LAD), Chad Billingsley (LAD), Ricky Nolasco (FLA), John Danks (CHW), Jonathan Sanchez (SF), Ryan Dempster (CHC), Ricky Romero (TOR), Wandy Rodriguez (HOU), Colby Lewis (TEX), Hiroki Kuroda (LAD), Trevor Cahill (OAK), Gavin Floyd (CHW), Javier Vazquez (FLA), Brandon Morrow (TOR), Gio Gonzalez (OAK), Jhoulys Chacin (COL)

Marcum posted impressive numbers in the AL East. I’m excited to see how much those numbers will improve in the NL Central. … After Scherzer’s brief stint in the minors he pitched brilliantly. He should flirt with 200 strikeouts. … Pitching in the AL East limits Romero’s potential even though his improving BB/9 and K/9 indicate he should get even better. … Even though Cahill is a ground ball pitcher his BABIP of .236 is unsustainable. If he doesn’t start striking out more hitters, he’ll be hard-pressed to approach last year’s value. … Morrow had a great second half and finished the year with a K/9 of 10.95. To put that in perspective, the league-leading K/9 among qualified starters was 9.79. … If you weren’t paying attention you might have missed the number sChacin (no, not Gustavo) put up last year: 137.1 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .227 BAA, 9.04 K/9.

Tier 5

Daniel Hudson (ARZ), Brett Myers (HOU), C.J. Wilson (TEX), Jaime Garcia (STL), Phil Hughes (NYY), Brian Matusz (BAL), Jeremy Hellickson (TB), Jake Peavy (CHW), Jordan Zimmermann (WAS), Madison Bumgarner (SF), Kevin Slowey (MIN), Jorge de la Rosa (COL), James Shields (TB), Bronson Arroyo (CIN)

Hudson was great last year but his BABIP and strand rate are unsustainable. … Myers and Wilson had career years in 2010 but their potential downsides have them in tier five. … Matusz’s rookie year wasn’t as good as expected, but don’t forget what Price did in his second year. … Hellickson has all the hype, but remember most rookies struggle in the AL East. … Zimmermann is over a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Pitchers tend to throw harder after the surgery, as both Minnesota’s Liriano and Florida’s Johnson can confirm.

Final Tier

Kansas City Royals pitching staff

Ok seriously, don’t draft a Royals starting pitcher.

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Impact of Pitchers Changing Leagues

By on January 12, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Every year around this time, we hear baseball experts talk about how pitchers can expect to benefit or be harmed by switching leagues, but how much of an effect is there really?

This year there seems to be a mass exodus of big-name pitchers moving to the Senior Circuit—Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Matt Garza and Javier Vazquez to name a few—so how much should we expect their stats to improve? In fantasy baseball, does this vault them up our preseason rankings or should we only value the switch as a tie-breaker between otherwise even candidates?

To answer this, I went back and looked at the ERA and K/9 for American League pitchers and National League pitchers over the last 10 seasons (since these are the two most telling and fantasy-relevant stats) to see how large the AL-NL gap has become.

YearAL ERANL ERAAL K/9NL K/9
Average4.454.276.496.86
20104.144.026.837.39
20094.454.196.867.10
20084.354.296.646.98
20074.514.436.656.70
20064.564.496.446.72
20054.364.226.166.57
20044.634.316.456.74
20034.534.286.116.65
20024.464.116.266.77
20014.484.366.447.00

Is it surprising to see that in each of the last 10 seasons the NL has had a lower ERA and a higher K/9 than the AL? Actually, yeah, I am kind of surprised. Just as we expected, the 10-year averages for ERA and K/9 certainly favor the NL, but for it to be tilted in the NL’s favor in every single season over the last decade is notable.

So, what do these differences equate to for one pitcher over the course of a season? The difference in ERA between leagues is straight-forward; NL pitchers averaged an ERA that was 18 points lower than AL pitchers. But what about strikeout totals? For a pitcher who throws 200 innings (and many of the pitchers we care about in fantasy baseball are 200-inning beasts) the difference is only eight strikeouts—144 per 200 IP in the AL and 152 per 200 IP in the NL.

Honestly, I thought the gap would be a little larger, but if you combine the drop in ERA and the slight rise in strikeouts and K/9, you do get a better overall line. Does this change the way I value a pitcher like Marcum or Garza? Absolutely not. Because these numbers only take into account one league versus the other, division strength is not accounted for. Marcum and Garza’s moves from the AL East to the NL Central represent drastic changes on two fronts; not only are they leaving the AL, but they’re also leaving the AL East. Both of these factors combine to drive up their values.

Greinke, on the other hand, might not notice that much of a difference. The AL Central isn’t exactly a power division, and it could be argued the NL Central houses better offenses with teams such as St. Louis and Cincinnati. Unlike Marcum, Greinke only gets a boost by changing leagues and not by leaving the AL Central.

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Cliff Will Be Positive-Lee Dominating

By on January 7, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

What can we say about Cliff Lee that hasn’t already been said? He transformed himself from failed starter, to staff ace, to perennial Cy Young candidate in just a few short seasons. Then he signed a $120-million contract, the fifth largest ever for a starting pitcher, and from the minute he set foot in Philadelphia they were crowned World Series Champions.

In fact, rumor has it the other 29 team owners just wanted to forfeit 2011 to spend more time with their families, but Bud Selig turned them down because he wanted to see the first ever 162-0 season.

What can we expect out of Lee in 2011, aside from a World Series ring, that is? How about the same thing we’ve been seeing for the last three seasons—except he’s actually pitching for a good team for the whole season and should finally rack up some wins.

And we know he can pitch in Citizens Bank Ballpark, but did you know that his FIP during his stint with the Phillies in 2009 was 2.83, the exact same FIP he had during his 22-3 Cy Young season in 2008. The only thing that Lee seems to have lost from his game since his resurrection is the ability to walk hitters. Entering August last season, Lee had walked just seven hitters. In August and September alone he walked 13! That’s, like, almost double!

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Sarcasm aside, nothing has changed how you should value Cliff Lee. He’ll throw a ton of innings, he’ll contend for the NL ERA title, and he should close in on 20 wins. The only thing that pitchers like C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum and Adam Wainwright do better than Lee is strike batters out. Lee’s 7.84 K/9 in 2010 was his highest since 2004. If he maintained the same strikeout rate this season, he’d have to pitch 229.2 innings to hit 200 strikeouts. It’s entirely possible for Lee to do that, but even then he would still trail the others.

Luckily for prospective Lee owners, we should see more than just 12 wins this season. Increased win totals, combined with an elite ERA and WHIP, make Lee one of the premier starters in the game. The only guys I would definitely take before Lee are Halladay and Wainwright, and the only others in the conversation are Lincecum, Hernandez, and maybe Sabathia (sorry, Josh Johnson).

2011 Fantasy Projection

19-8 | 2.85 ERA | 1.10 WHIP | 188 K | 7.65 K/9 | 221 IP

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