Tag Archives | Chase Utley

Tuesday’s Recap: The new-look Mark Teixeira

By on April 6, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Year after year you would hear the same argument; Yeah, Mark Teixeira is great, but watch out for his atrocious Aprils. Well, guess again folks because good ol’ Tex has thrown us another curve ball this year.

After batting an uncharacteristically low .256 last year, Teixeira fell down draft boards into the mid-to-late second round and behind fellow AL East slugger Adrian Gonzalez. However, the notorious slow starter (career .239/.348/.423 in April) has come out with guns a’blazing with four home runs in his first five games.

Texiera has had great fortune with his fly balls so far (57.1 HR/FB%), but he’s also helping out his cause by not hitting a lot of ground balls (26.7 GB%). Of course, these numbers will not stay at their current levels and Teixeira’s power will come back to earth, but owners who drafted him thinking April was a lost cause are getting some very nice bonus stats in the meantime.

I would say that Teixeira looks like the player we all saw in 2009 when he hit 39 home runs and those who believed in a bounce back season will be greatly rewarded with a borderline first round player at a discounted price.

Three Up

David Wright, 3B, NYM - 4-for-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB

Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL - CG, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K

Alex Gordon, 3B/OF, KC – 3-for-5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI

Three Down

Cole Hamels, SP, PHI - 2 2/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, KC - 0-for-4, 3 K, 3 LOB

J.A. Happ, SP, HOU - 4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

Notes:

  • Clayton Kershaw was the victim of the thin air at Coors Field last night, surrendering two home runs over six innings, but what was most impressive to me was his 8:1 K:BB ratio. In 13 innings this season, Kershaw has a 17:2 ratio which is a great sign that he is ready to jump into the conversation of elite fantasy pitchers. If he can keep up the trend of lasting longer into games and improving his control there is no reason why Kershaw can’t be 2011′s top fantasy pitcher.
  • Two players who were known for their great hitting approach, but not their power already have two home runs on the season. Yes, I’m talking about Billy Butler and Logan Morrison. Unfortunately for Butler, he is batting in a depleted Royals lineup and the effect is shown in his RBI total so far (3). Butler is currently hitting line drives at a 37.1-percent rate and it’s just a matter of whether those line drives will turn into fly balls—and possibly more home runs—or grounders. Morrison, who has shown this power before in the minor-leagues, could be a sleeper to drive in 90-100 runs if he remains the Marlins’ No. 5 hitter.
  • I went into last night ready to just discard Brian Duensing‘s start against the Yankees, but he actually impressed me. The four earned runs in seven innings don’t bother me because the Yankees offense is one of the best in the league, but his 7:2 K:BB ratio is very impressive. Duensing isn’t a strikeout pitcher, which is why he is only owned in 21-percent of Yahoo! leagues, but keep a close eye on him. A good strategy could be to pick him up as WHIP insurance for a high-strikeout pitcher like Jonathan Sanchez.

Nicks, bruises and cuts:

Chicago’s Carlos Pena is day-to-day with a sprained right thumb. … The Angels’ Erick Aybar missed last night’s game with tightness in his right side. … Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips got the wind knocked out of him and left the game in the fourth inning.

Links from around the league:

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MLB Injury Updates

By on March 21, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

We are coming into the final stretch run of fantasy baseball drafts and spring training wouldn’t be interesting if it wasn’t for the injury news. Fantasy owners will check everything short of a player’s SSN and Credit Score before deciding to take him on for the next six months. Well, I scoured the interweb for you and gathered the most fantasy-related injury news I could find. I’m not a doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

What you’ll find is a lot of links, some analysis and a confidence level rating at the end of it all. And why not base the confidence meter on the world’s most confident man—Charlie Sheen. We’re here to have fun, right?

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

Gonzalez recently said that he wants to play all 162 games this year, which sounds to me that he is feeling pretty good. He still doesn’t have full range of his shoulder when he is on the field, but he looks good at the plate and should be ready to go when the season starts.

Confidence level: Bi-winning. Because if you draft him you won’t just win once, you’ll win twice. I think I just coined AGon’s fantasy slogan. This right here is why you go to college kids.

Kendrys Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

Morales still has been offically ruled out for opening day as he is still recovering from a broken leg. The slugger hasn’t begun any running drills yet and if he does play in the season opener it will be as a designated hitter. The fact that he hasn’t been able to run yet is very worrisome and it could be something he deals with for the first half of the season. I’m bumping him down a bit on my draft board and would rather have Justin Morneau or Paul Konerko at this point.

Confidence Level: Jon Cryer. He may make some money later on with another gig, but having the rug pulled out from under him by Charlie Sheen like this has got to hurt. Life for Cryer may never get better than his days of getting paid to play Sheen’s nagging, metrosexual brother in a show that went past the prime once Angus T. Jones hit puberty.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

If there is any positive news on Utley’s future I haven’t been able to find it. He has patellar tendinitis and bone swelling—two things you probably want to avoid in life— and is almost a guarantee to miss the beginning of the season. However, it shouldn’t be April that Utley owners worry about, but the entire 2011 season. The Phillies just signed Luis Castillo for insurance, which has to tell you that the team is worried about Utley’s future. I am not touching Utley in drafts unless his price is significantly lowered to around $4-$5 or the last couple of rounds in snake drafts.

Confidence Level: Troll. I can only imagine that Utley, who has no cartilage in his knee, would love to be one of those plastic trolls right about now. You know, because they either don’t have knees or can’t bend them…

Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins

Johnson struggled in his first spring outing and pitched very well in his second, using a new sinker pitch to induce more ground balls. However, Johnson has quite an injury history with Tommy John and shoulder surgery both in the last three years. He supposedly lost some weight and added strength over the offseason, but the chance he makes it through a full season healthy isn’t great, which is why he is on the tail end of my top-10 rather than the beginning.

Confidence Level: Vatican Assassin Warlock. Because it sounds like the coolest thing in the world, but no one knows what it actually means so is it really cool? Just like drafting Josh Johnson looks like a great decision based on the numbers, but you probably won’t get a full season out of him.

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Ryan Raburn: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 14, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

His name sounds like some futuristic skin ailment but Ryan Raburn is someone who matters now. The Detroit Tigers’ 30-year-old utility man may finally claim a starting spot on Opening Day. He will duke it out with Brennan Boesch in Spring Training to be the team’s everyday left fielder, but the Vegas odds are heavily in Raburn’s favor.

If you stopped paying close attention to baseball in mid-summer you might have missed Raburn’s impressive second half stats. After playing sporadically prior to the All-Star break, Raburn batted a robust .315 with 13 home runs and 46 RBI after the break, earning himself more playing time in the process. Although Raburn only had 371 at-bats on the year, he still managed to hit 15 home runs. He hit a HR every 24.7 at-bats, which was more frequent than Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley. Even more impressive, Raburn hit a HR every 16.3 at-bats in 2009. With that proven power stroke imagine what he can do in a full season.

Raburn reminds me a little bit of Ben Zobrist prior to the 2009 season. If you recall, Zobrist was also a super utility-type player who had shown flashes of power in limited playing time. He was finally given 500-plus at-bats in 2009 and clubbed 27 home runs. Raburn can have that type of impact. Also like Zobrist, Raburn has multi-position eligibility. In addition to being an outfielder, Raburn qualifies at second base, playing 18 games there in 2010. The comparisons stop there, however. Zobrist is a base stealer while Raburn is not, but Raburn will hit for a better average. Over the past two years Raburn has notched a .285 average in 632 at-bats.

It will be interested to see where Raburn bats in the Tigers lineup. He actually batted third for the majority of his at-bats last year but that is unlikely to happen again with the acquisition of Victor Martinez. He’ll most likely hit either second (where he will rack up plenty of runs) or sixth where he will have ample opportunities to drive in Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez. Regardless of where he hits, it will be a favorable spot.

Raburn is a must-buy if you’re bargain hunting at the end of your draft. He will be a welcome addition to your outfield but he will provide the most value at second base. With great power for a middle infielder and no weakness other than steals, you’ll turn a nice profit from a minimal investment.

2011 Fantasy Projection

82 R | .283 AVG | 24 HR | 86 RBI | 5 SB

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Travis Snider: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 5, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

So it’s the end of the draft and you feel like you could use another outfielder. You see some familiar names: Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez and Alfonso Soriano. I’ll draft one these guys you think to yourself.

But here’s a better idea: Draft Travis Snider instead.

After spending parts of three seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, Snider heads into the 2011 season as the team’s unquestioned starting right fielder. Still just 23 years old, the former first round pick is on the cusp of justifying his once top prospect status.

Power is Snider’s calling card. In 612 career major league at-bats he has slugged 25 home runs. Last year he smacked 14 homers in only 298 at-bats, good for an AB/HR ratio of 21.3. To put that in perspective, Snider hit home runs at a more frequent rate than Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley.

Snider’s ISO last year was an impressive .208, which was better than Braun, Ramirez and Utley and just .01 less than former home-run king Prince Fielder.

We know Snider can hit for power, but will he be a drain on your batting average? The answer is no. While he batted only .255 last year, it wasn’t for lack of solid contact. Nearly one quarter (24.3%) of his hits were line drives, which ranked third among players with at least 300 plate appearances. Snider is also a career .302 hitter in the minor leagues, with a career .339 batting average in Triple-A so the track record is there. And even though Snider is a lefty, there’s no need to worry about how he’ll fare against southpaws. Last year he hit left-handed pitchers nearly as well as he did right-handers.

If you’re not quite a believer in Snider’s talents just yet, check out how he finished his season in the month of September: .304 AVG| 13 R | 6 HR | 9 RBI | 2 SB.

I expect Snider’s strong finish last season to carry over to this year. With another year of experience and a full season of at-bats under his belt he’s destined to become a good source of power that won’t hurt your batting average in the process. The RBI opportunities will be there as well with Rajai Davis, Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista and Adam Lind hitting in front of him. And he might even steal a few bases.

As you approach the end of your draft, remember there’s little reason to draft an aging player with a declining skill set over a young player like Snider who is on the verge of breaking out.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.279 AVG | 72 R | 26 HR | 81 RBI | 7 SB

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2011 Fantasy Baseball 2B Rankings

By on January 24, 2011 | Comments { 6 }

Another day, another ranking. Except this time it’s second base. We already wrote out our 2011 catcher rankings and 2011 first base rankings so those are definitely worth checking out, and if you want to see the rest of our 2011 fantasy baseball projections you can do that, too. Tons of stuff. You’ll need to know it.

Tier 1

Robinson Cano (NYY), Chase Utley (PHI), Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

Cano has vaulted to the top of just about every second base ranking on the web due to a breakout 2010 season right when Utley started to seem mortal. Cano’s last two seasons were nearly identical, and he hasn’t missed more than three games in any of the last four years. The only downside is his almost non-existent stolen base output, but a .320 average, near 30 homers and 200 R/RBIs kind of make you forget about that. … Yeah, Utley is 32 but I’m inclined to believe he’s still an elite option. His batting average has dropped each year since 2007, but he’s a 30/100 threat nonetheless and should steal 10-20 bases. … Pedroia was on pace for his typical 115-run, 20-steal season again last year before a freak foot injury derailed his season (my sources tell me Rex Ryan was behind it). Best of all, he had 12 homers in his 75 games and looked set to finally crack that 20-homer mark we’ve been waiting for.

Tier 1.5

Ian Kinsler (TEX)

I rewrote this post twice before, once with Kinsler in tier one and once with him in tier two. Neither seemed right to me, so I decided to give Kinsler his own tier. The guy can’t stay healthy, but he’s the closest thing to a 20/20 lock at second base and he even has 30/30 potential (did that in 2009). Injuries have always been a concern, and his batting average fluctuates rather wildly, but I have no problem starting Kinsler at second base. When he plays, he easily belongs in tier one. When he doesn’t, I don’t mind starting someone else like Neil Walker or Jose Lopez in the interim.

Tier 2

Dan Uggla (ATL), Rickie Weeks (MIL), Ben Zobrist (TB), Brandon Phillips (CIN), Martin Prado (ATL), Aaron Hill (TOR)

If Uggla really was a .280 hitter, he might be a member of tier one. He’d certainly be a member of tier 1.5. Unfortunately, he’s not a .280 hitter. His .330 BABIP last season was easily higher than his current career mark of .302, and his LD% last season wasn’t that much better than his career LD%. Summary: Uggla’s .280 average was lucky. It’s back to the .260s for him. Four straight 30-plus homer seasons and 90-100 runs and RBI are very nice, but negative contributions in two of the five standard fantasy categories (SB and AVG) keep you out of the top tier. … Weeks‘ 11 steals were actually the fewest of his career (if you don’t count his injury-shortened 2009 season), but no one really cared since he was busy hitting 29 homers and scoring 112 runs. The power is semi-legit; I think something in the 20-25 range is more likely in 2011, but I do expect more steals. … I’m still a huge fan of Zobrist and I’m willing to overlook everything he did last year. … Phillips‘ RBI total fell way down to 59, but he’s still a solid bet for a 20/20 season but, sadly, a .265-.275 batting average. … All of Prado‘s numbers last year (.307 AVG, 100 R, 15 HR, 66 RBI and 5 SB) were in line with his 2009 per-game averages, so expect the joy ride to continue. … We already covered our 2011 Aaron Hill fantasy projection, but if I had to sum up my feelings towards him in four words or less I’d say “Buy.” Ha. Only needed one word.

Tier 3

Gordon Beckham (CHW), Brian Roberts (BAL), Howie Kendrick (LAA), Chone Figgins (SEA), Kelly Johnson (ARI), Neil Walker (PIT), Jose Lopez (COL), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (MIN), Danny Espinosa (WAS)

Beckham actually rebounded well in the second half last season. Maybe he’s just one of those “one year too early” guys. If so, you’ll want to own him this year. … Roberts is a major health risk and is getting up there in age. Don’t count on more than 20 or so steals (even if he plays in 140 or more games), but that paves the way for increased power output. He’s always been a serious doubles guy. … Kendrick should get his average over .290 again, but perennial first-half struggles have been limiting his end-of-season stats. If he can put it together in April and May, buy on him. … Figgins is likely going to hit at the tail end of a pitiful lineup, but he could always steal 40-plus bases. … We already wrote our 2011 Kelly Johnson fantasy projection, so check that out if you want. Summary: Prognosis Negative. … Walker had a surprisingly solid rookie season (.296/.349/.462 with 12 HR, 57 R, 66 RBI and 2 SB in 110 games), and nothing suggests he can’t continue to improve over a full season. … Take a look at Lopez‘s career stats and tell me that doesn’t look pretty good in Colorado. … Nishioka is an unknown, but we do know he had a heck of a career in Japan. Should hit for a good average and steal a lot of bases. Then again, Kaz Matsui was supposed to be pretty good, too. … We didn’t rank Espinosa in our top 30, but right about now I’m wishing we had (check back for our updated rankings). Hey, better late than never. You can check out our 2011 Danny Espinosa fantasy projection instead.

Tier 4

Sean Rodriguez (TB), Omar Infante (FLA), Juan Uribe (LAD), Mike Aviles (KC), Reid Brignac (TB), Alberto Callaspo (LAA), Freddy Sanchez (SF), Ryan Theriot (STL), Jed Lowrie (BOS), Ryan Raburn (DET), Eric Young Jr. (COL)

Rodriguez had a great spring training last season, but he’s still nothing special. … Infante can hit for average, but that’s about it … Uribe seems to turn it on late in the season these days. … Aviles and Brignac are two of the guys from this tier you’ll want to target if only because they have the potential to be rosterable players for an entire season. … Sanchez gets you a little bit in every category, and Theriot gets you everything in only one category (SB). … Red Sox manager Terry Francona has said Marco Scutaro is his starting shortstop and Lowrie will be the backup everything. That means a lot of AB for a guy who posted nine homers and slugged .526 in just 55 games last year … Like Lowrie, Rayburn has the talent but doesn’t have a starting job. Still, he finds a way to get ABs. … Young is a 50-steal threat with enough playing time. Lopez’s presence in Colorado muddies the picture, though.

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Who should you take with the 4th pick?

By on March 1, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

We received an email today from Mike asking what to do with the fourth pick in the draft. After Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez, there are a variety of directions you can go based on your league’s settings and your draft strategy. Here are our thoughts:

“Hi guys!

Could use some help if you don’t mind. I’m in a 10 team H2H (every cat = 1 pt) league. The categories are…

H, R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG

W, L, SV, OUTS, K, ERA, WHIP, BSV (blown saves)

We play one at every field position with two utility spots and start three SP, three RP and two P.
Having trouble with the 4th pick. It’s a snake draft and I’m leaning toward Fielder in the 1st round. I figure Pujols, Hanley and ARod will go 1-2-3, though I could see the 2nd pick guy taking Lincecum. I like Fielder because we have OBP and SLG. I might even take Fielder over Hanley and ARod. Don’t like Utley and Braun. Not sure about an OF in the1st rd. Would like to have 2B, 3B and SS by the end of round 4. Whaddya think? Thx in advance!

Mike”

Alright, Mike. Let’s see what we’ve got here.

We’ll approach this from the strengths and weaknesses of all the players worthy of consideration and position depth.

Prince Fielder
- Strengths: R, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG
- Neutral: H, AVG
- Weaknesses: SB

Chase Utley
- Strengths: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG
- Neutral: H, AVG
- Weaknesses: none

Ryan Braun
- Strengths: R, H, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG
- Neutral: none
- Weaknesses: none

As you can see, Ryan Braun is the best, most balanced contributor, providing plus to plus plus production in every category. I know you don’t want to take an outfielder, but why not? The position really isn’t that deep because after Braun, Matt Kemp, Matt Holliday and Justin Upton, every other player has a weakness.

You could also go Chase Utley here as well since he is far and away the best second baseman and produces elite numbers in every category except hits and average, where he is still above average with elite potential. After Utley, you have the oft-injured Ian Kinsler and then a bunch of guys like Pedroia, Cano, Zobrist, Hill and Phillips who all have some weaknesses.

I’m not really sure what it is you have against Braun and Utley, though. They seem A-OK with me.

I love Prince Fielder, too, but first base is way to deep to take someone not named Pujols ahead of Braun. In the event that the second pick is Tim Lincecum, you take whichever of the top three is still there. Presumably, this will be Alex Rodriguez. With the extreme lack of depth at third base compared to other positions, Rodriguez becomes the must-pick guy.

If you go Braun or Utley, you can then focus on someone like David Wright, Felix Hernandez or Ian Kinsler (if you went Braun) at the end of the second round. I know you wanted a 2B, SS and 3B after the first four rounds, so Utley would be a great way to get that started. Call me crazy if you want, but I have no problem stocking up on elite talent at shallow positions and waiting for Justin Morneau or Kevin Youkilis in the fourth or fifth round.

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Reaction To Tristan H. Cockcroft’s Top 10

By on January 7, 2010 | Comments { 6 }

Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN.com recently published his early top 200 rankings for 2010.  He based his rankings on a 10 team league using Rotisserie 5×5 scoring.  I would like to share my views on his top 10 and open up the topic for discussion.

His top 10 were as follows:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Ryan Braun
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Carl Crawford
6. Prince Fielder
7. Tim Lincecum
8. Chase Utley
9. Matt Kemp
10. Miguel Cabrera

Let’s start right at the top.  I think Hanley should be the first overall pick with Pujols going second.  Although Pujols puts up the best numbers in the game, Hanley puts up better numbers relative to his position.  First base is an incredibly deep position with proven mashers such as Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau, and Adrian Gonzalez as well as up and coming sluggers such as Kendry Morales and Joey Votto.  Shortstop isn’t nearly as deep.  There’s a noticeable drop off after Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, and Jimmy Rollins.  Not to mention the top shortstops after Hanley aren’t as safe as the top first basemen after Pujols.  As a result, I think Hanley is the clear cut choice with the first overall pick.

Another problem I have with his list is that Crawford at 5 is too high.  Cockcroft has Crawford ranked as the second best outfielder.  However, I would much rather have Kemp.  They’ll both hit for roughly the same average and score just about the same number of runs.  Kemp should hit around 30 home runs again next year and is a lock for 100 RBI.  Crawford on the other hand will be in the 15-20 HR and 65-80 RBI range.  Although Crawford will steal between 50 and 60 bases, Kemp can more than hold his own totaling 34 last year and 35 the year before.  Kemp is also 5 years younger and is just about to enter his prime while Crawford has most likely peaked.

A final problem I have with Cockcroft’s top 10 is that I don’t believe Lincecum should be drafted in the first round.  Although Lincecum is the best pitcher on the board, pitchers generally carry more risk than elite hitters because they are more likely to have season threatening injuries, i.e. Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb.  Since early round picks are all about minimizing risk, I would feel a lot more comfortable taking someone like Evan Longoria over Tim Lincecum.

These are my thoughts on Tristan’s top 10.  Now the floor is yours.  What’s your top 10 next year?  Also, what does your top 10 look like in a keeper league?

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