Tag Archives | Chase Utley

#1: Is second base a secret hotbed for power?

By on November 2, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Question number one in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series read as such: “Second base seems to be a surprising hotbed for power. In standard Yahoo! leagues 12 second basemen had 18 or more home runs compared to only 11 third basemen. Will we be able to find that power again at second base next year?”

To properly answer this question, there are three smaller questions we must address:

  1. Is second base really a hotbed for power?
  2. How many guys with 18-plus home runs from 2011 are likely to repeat in 2012?
  3. What players might join 2011′s crop of 18-plus home run producers?

Each sub-question is fascinating in it’s own right, so I’m glad George had the foresight to include the larger question in our top 100 list.

Is second base really a hotbed for power?

To answer this I went back and looked at the power numbers from 2011 for each position. First, I calculated the average home run total of the top 15 players at each position since many roto leagues include as many as 15 teams and for smaller, 10-team leagues this includes all the starters and the first half of the available backups. Next, I found the median home run total of those top 15 players since some positions (third base) had skewed averages based on one or two incredible power performances (Jose Bautista). Last, since the question set the parameter of players with at least 18 home runs, I counted how many players at the position hit at least 18 home runs. The results are below.

*Outfield numbers were calculated using the top 45 home run hitters since there are three times as many outfielders compared to any other position, so “Avg of Top 15″ is really average of the top 45 and “No. with 18+ HR” was really the number of outfielders with 18-plus home runs divided by three. This keeps everything on the same scale.

Conclusion: Second base doesn’t stand out as a power-heavy position, but there was just as much power to be found there as at third base and outfield, two positions certainly more known for higher home run totals.

How many guys with 18-plus home runs in 2011 are likely to repeat in 2012?

There are three basic factors that combine to yield a player’s home run total:

  1. How many at-bats he gets
  2. How many of those at-bats result in fly balls
  3. How many of those fly balls result in home runs

To see how many second basemen in 2011′s “18 and Over Club” are likely to repeat, I looked at each of their relevant stats from 2011 as compared to the last three years (2009-2011).

The three guys shaded in gray atop the chart are the guys I consider locks for 18-plus home runs in 2012 (barring injury to Ian Kinsler). As for the rest, somehow nine guys all came within three home runs of our 18-home-run threshold, giving us very little room for error.

Interestingly enough, 10 of the 12 players here actually hit fewer fly balls in 2011 than they did on average from 2009 to 2011. This explains the small drop in home run production from second basemen from 2010 to 2011 as seven guys actually hit more than 21 home runs in 2010 versus just three in 2011. However, nine of the 12 saw an increased number of those fly balls leave the yard last season.

Dustin Pedroia hit more than 18 home runs for the first time last season, but it was actually his second straight year ahead of the pace since he managed 12 homers in just 75 games in 2010. Pedroia makes the cut.

Kelly Johnson is a real boom-or-bust power guy who’s status in this group might very well be dictated by where he signs. His two home ballparks last season, Arizona and Toronto, are very favorable home run parks for left-handed hitters with both posting park factors of 114 for home runs to lefties (according to statcorner.com). Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos says Johnson is currently “in the mix” for Toronto, so if he doesn’t sign there or with another team with a good ballpark, I’m less inclined to include him in this group.

Last season I was touting Danny Espinosa as a sleeper 20/20 threat and while the stolen bases weren’t quite there (17), the power was. He’s part of Washington’s future right now and I don’t see a good reason why he shouldn’t repeat his 2011 power production. Oh, and for what it’s worth, I projected Espinosa for 20 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Score!

Ben Zobrist hit 20 home runs last season, 27 home runs in 2009 and 12 home runs in 62 games in 2008. Like Kinsler, his 2010 season seems to defy reason, and I think he’s a very good bet to top 18 home runs again. In fact, outside of the top three that I consider locks, Zobrist is the guy I’m next most confident in.

Michael Cuddyer is a free agent and will be one of the most hotly sought after right-handed bats on the market. That means Minnesota is going to have to pay the man to continue to employ his services. Given their needs (right-handed bat) and Cuddyer’s role on the team, they just might do that. Target Field isn’t extremely home run friendly (park factor: 95), but they say the devil you know is better than the one you don’t. Right now I think he repeats, but we’ll know better in a few months.

Rickie Weeks would be that guy I was next most confident in if he didn’t still come with lingering health concerns, but at least the injury that robbed him of about 200-plus at-bats last season was a severely twisted ankle and not a recurring muscle injury. He’ll repeat, too.

It’s these last three guys that are really the most interesting. Ryan Roberts has never really displayed 18-plus home run power at any level before, but his ISO has always been respectable and sometimes it takes time for guys to turn those extra base hits into extra home runs. He managed 19 homers in just 482 at-bats despite hitting fewer fly balls last year, but he’s still a fairly extreme fly ball hitter in one of the game’s best home run parks. Arizona only slightly favors right-handed hitters for home runs (park factor: 102), and without a real threat at third base he should get around 500 at-bats next season. Can he maintain his elevated HR/FB rate? According to Hit Tracker Online, seven of Roberts’ 19 home runs had “just enough” (36.8%). The MLB average last season was 33.4 percent, so Roberts didn’t have an unusual number of lucky home runs. I tend to think he will repeat.

Howie Kendrick is the guy I’m saying “thanks for playing” to. He had two months where he combined to hit 12 home runs (April and August) and then managed just six in the other four months combined. His HR/FB rate last season was 46 percent higher than his rate from 2009 through 2011, and he has a hard time staying healthy and doesn’t hit fly balls. Too much went right for me to think this will happen again.

Brandon Phillips hasn’t hit fewer than 18 home runs in any of the last five years, but he’s hit exactly 18 in each of the last two. He’s aging, his HR/FB rate has declined every year since 2007, and I don’t think he reaches the mark again.

By my count that makes eight players I think will hit 18-plus once again plus two free agents (Johnson and Cuddyer) that the jury is still out on but I admittedly still like. Don’t count on Kendrick or Phillips repeating.

What players might join 2011′s crop of 18-plus home run producers?

Here are the names we need to seriously consider for this group: Chase Utley, Michael Young, Ryan Raburn, Neil Walker, Aaron Hill, Dustin Ackley, Jason Kipnis and Gordon Beckham.

Even though Utley has missed significant time over the last two years and hasn’t hit 18-plus home runs since the 31 he hit in 2009, I refuse to believe he’s completely done. I think he’s got one more good season left in him.

Young didn’t top four homers in any single month last year and actually hit just one in three of them. He hit 22 and 21 home runs in 2009 and 2010, respectively, but he’s getting up there in age and isn’t a fly ball hitter. Young will continue to drive in runs and hit for a high average, but I don’t think 18 home runs are in the cards.

Raburn was a huge preseason sleeper but didn’t really live up to the hype. He bounced in and out of Detroit’s lineup all season, but his .967 OPS in the second half last year showed the kind of hitter he can be. Raburn hits a lot of fly balls and I think the power is there if he’s given enough playing time. I’m going out on a limb and projecting him to hit our 18-homer benchmark.

Walker disappointed with just 12 home runs last season mainly due to both his fly ball rate and home run per fly ball rate declining from his rookie season. He had seasons of 13, 16 and 14 home runs in the minors from 2007 to 2009, respectively, and looked like that same hitter in 2010. I think he approaches 20 this season and I’m willing to bet he breaks 18.

Hill is worth taking a flier on in the last round of your draft because the potential is there, but I don’t think it’s something I want to predict right now.

Ackley and Kipnis just aren’t power hitters despite Kipnis’ mini outburst last season and I don’t think either hits 18.

As for Beckham, he’s an intriguing name. I honestly think he has a 50/50 shot to surpass 18 homers since he plays in a nice enough offensive ballpark, but right now it’s not something I think I want to expect until I see it happen once.

Which players will hit 18-plus home runs in 2012?

All of this analysis has given us 13 names that I think will hit 18 home runs as second basemen:

  • Dan Uggla
  • Ian Kinsler
  • Robinson Cano
  • Dustin Pedroia
  • Danny Espinosa
  • Ben Zobrist
  • Rickie Weeks
  • Ryan Roberts
  • Kelly Johnson
  • Michael Cuddyer
  • Chase Utley
  • Ryan Raburn
  • Neil Walker
Do you agree or disagree with my list? Leave anyone you think I’ve over- or underrated in the comments section below!
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Recapping the Weekend in 140 Characters or Less

By on July 25, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

In today’s information age, we expect instant results. Internet research suggests that web surfers allow 10 seconds at most for a page to load. Any longer than that and they’ll find their facts elsewhere.

In March of 2011 Subway passed McDonald’s as the world’s largest restaurant chain with over 32,000 locations apiece, meaning fast food is the world’s food of choice.

Perhaps most symbolic of the era we live in is the staggering growth of Twitter. Back in December of 2007, Twitter had 500,000 visitors a month. Just one year later that number bulged to nearly 4.5 million per month. In June of 2011, just over two years later, Twitter logged over 32 million unique visitors. Clearly, people like getting lots of information in quick, easy-to-manage doses.

In my latest attempt to feed this addiction, here’s a recap of what we saw this weekend in 140 characters or less.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC

Hosmer went 4-for-9 over the weekend giving him 4 multi-hit games in his last 5. Power is only so-so but on pace for 95 RBI per 162 games.

Tim Stauffer, SP, SD

Stauffer got rocked against Philly yesterday. His K:BB ratio is 0.92 in 4 July starts versus 3.52 in rest of season. Velocity down of late.

Mike Trout, OF, LAA

Hit his first career homer Sunday and it was a 414-foot shot. Remains a good buy despite low average.

Chase Utley, 2B, PHI

Went 3-for-3 with 2 homers on Saturday, his first homers since July 2. From July 3 to July 18, 12 games and zero RBI so this is a good sign.

Geovany Soto, C, CHC

Went 5-for-9 with a homer over the weekend. Batting .308 in 18 July games. Good potential and just 64% owned so maybe you can get him.

David Wright, 3B, NYM

He’s 6-for-14 since returning from a 2-plus month DL stint. Homered on Sunday with 6 RBI in his three games back.

Justin Upton, OF, ARI

The weekend’s top player: 7-for-9 with a homer, 9 RBI and a steal on Saturday and Sunday and raised OPS from .866 to .903 in the process.

Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL

Don’t buy into Beachy’s start on Sunday. Went 6 innings and allowed just 1 ER, but was lucky in the process (4 walks and 2 homers).

Carl Crawford, OF, BOS

Went 3-for-4 with 2 runs and 2 RBI on Sunday. He’s 9-for-24 (.375) since his return from the DL with 2 steals in 6 games.

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN

Allowed 4 ER in 2.1 innings versus Detroit on Sunday. Walked 4 batters in 3 of last 4 starts. His 5.00 BB/9 easily a career high.

Michael Pineda, SP, SEA

Struggling on the road this season. Lit up by Boston and has now allowed 19 ER in last 3 starts (15.2 IP) @LAA, @TOR, @BOS.

Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF

Still pitching like an ace. Has a 3.00 ERA if you remove June 21 start vs. MIN (0.1 IP, 8 ER). How’s he 6-9? Strong buy.

Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA

After 25 straight homerless games, hit 3 bombs on Friday and Saturday. Hopefully he’s back to his May form (.345/6/25).

Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN

Homered and stole a base in the same game (Sunday) for the fourth time this season.

Adam Jones, OF, BAL

Jones did the same thing Sunday that Stubbs did. It was the second time he’d done it this season, his first way back on April 7.

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2011 Midseason Fantasy Rankings: Second Base

By on July 16, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Position Breakdown

  • Top 25: 0 players
  • Top 50: 5 players
  • Top 100: 11 players
  • Top 200: 16 players
  • Highest Ranked Player: Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It hasn’t been pretty for second basemen in 2011. We’ve had Chase Utley and Martin Prado go down with injuries and Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill, Neil Walker and Gordon Beckham just plain old sucking.

Fortunately Ian Kinsler and Rickie Weeks have been the bastion of health (ridiculous, I know) and Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips and Michael Young being their normal selves have saved face a bit.

Lucky for the first group, they get a fresh start in the second half of the season so let’s check in and see who you should be putting all of your chips into.

1. Robinson Cano, NYY | 57 R, .297, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 6 SB

I don’t know which accomplishment Cano’s father is more proud of. His son winning the home run derby or being BaseballProf’s top ranked second baseman for the second half. It’s a toss up.

2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS | 61 R, .289, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 16 SB

Check out the speed from the little man! His previous career high is 20 steals, but he’s on pace to shatter that by the end of the month. He’s been one of the best players over the last month and there’s no reason he shouldn’t continue raking and putting on laser shows.

3. Ian Kinsler, TEX | 65 R, .253, 13 HR, 34 RBI, 19 SB

There is a lot of hate in the fantasy community. He’s always hurt this and he can’t hit for a good batting average that. Did you know Kinsler has hit .297 over the last 30 days? Bet you didn’t. He bats leadoff for one of the best offenses in the league and walks more than every second baseman not named Pedroia. His .250 BABIP this season has been very unlucky, but in 11 games in July it sits at a cool .316 (.311 AVG). I have spoken!

4. Rickie Weeks, MIL | 67 R, .273, 17 HR, 39 RBI, 7 SB

Weeks must be eating his greens because somehow he has managed to stay healthy for 1 1/2 seasons—something he hadn’t done for his entire career. The steals have been a bit down from earlier in his career, but the power is up and that’s a trade I’m willing to take especially at this position.

5. Michael Young, TEX | 42 R, .324, 8 HR, 61 RBI, 4 SB

Being the teams’ primary DH, Young finds himself sitting on the bench more often than not but that hasn’t affected his hitting. He’s starting to find his power stroke, but he’s bringing it everywhere we thought he would. Young’s as steady as they come.

6. Brandon Phillips, CIN | 57 R, .290, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB

Phillips is quietly putting up one of his best averages in his career. The last time he approached .300 was in 2007 when he also had a 30/30 season. Oh the memories. His power is a bit down this year, but I peg an unlucky 7.5 HR/FB percentage as the culprit.

7. Ben Zobrist, TB | 61 R, .269, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB

We talked about Zorilla in our first base rankings. Needless to say, his skillset fits this position much better.

8. Chase Utley, PHI | 22 R, .278, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 8 SB

The injury still scares me a bit, but he has eight steals so he must be feeling good right? Utley is one of the toughest guys to rank after what he went through this offseason, but he could easily be a top four guy if he stays on the field. Remember, if.

9. Danny Espinosa, WAS | 45 R, .243, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 12 SB

Espinosa has been one of my favorite surprises of the season and he was on a majority of waiver wires as late as June 1. I talked about him in a recent post where I called him the next Kinsler.

10. Martin Prado, ATL | 38 R, .280, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 2 SB

Prado recently came off the disabled list and homered in his first game. That’s obviously a good sign and Prado should return to .300 form soon enough. Think of him as Placido Polanco with more pop and a better lineup spot.

11. Dan Uggla, ATL | 44 R, .186, 15 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB

Yes, Uggla was lost in the first half. His .185 batting average has been known to cause nausea, vomiting and some other unspeakable things, but he still managed to hit 15 home runs. His hitting has been coming on as of late with an eight-game hitting streak in which he has batted .333 with three home runs. God help me, but I believe.

12. Neil Walker, PIT | 47 R, .263, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB

Let me get this out of the way first, I am a Walker fan. He is probably the most uncharacteristic cleanup hitter in the majors, but because of his favorable lineup spot he leads all second basemen with 60 RBIs. I think Walker is more of a .280-.290 hitter and should end the season with around 15 home runs, which is pretty good production out of a middle infielder. He’s well on his way to reaching 90+ RBIs.

13. Howard Kendrick, LAA | 43 R, .301, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 9 SB

Kendrick was also talked about in the first base rankings post, but he belongs here. He started off with a great April where he hit .308 with six home runs and 12 RBI. Since then the average has been the same (.297), but his power has completely vanished (2 HR, 17 RBI). Kendrick has normally been one of those guys who tends to come on later in the season so I’d keep an eye on him.

14. Michael Cuddyer, MIN | 42 R, .292, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB

No need to reiterate what’s already been said. Check back to our midseason first base rankings, press Ctrl + F, and type in “Cuddyer.”

15. Kelly Johnson, ARI | 50 R, .216, 16 HR, 42 RBI, 8 SB

Johnson is doing his best Uggla impression except he’s winning because he also runs. Make sure you plan around that bad average, but he’s not bad for a guy with a girl’s name.

16. Aaron Hill, TOR | 29 R, .234, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 13 SB

Hill might just be the most frustrating player in baseball not named Billy Butler. He had that monster 2009 season, then followed it up with a horrible 2010 compaign in which he hit .205, but had 26 home runs. This year, he’s just decided to suck all around and there’s no way to explain it. He has 13 steals, which no one saw coming, but can we really expect them to keep coming? Regardless, I’m a sucker for power-hitting second basemen so he still has some potential in my eyes.

17. Dustin Ackley, SEA | 12 R, .289, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB

Ackley started off hot with a five-game hitting streak and batted .302 in his first 13 games with two home runs. Still, he’s only 23, in a pitcher’s park and in a horrible lineup. He might hit close to .300, but the runs and RBI won’t be there and I don’t see him making a big dent in either home runs or steals this year.

18. Ty Wigginton, COL | 37 R, .252, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 5 SB

Wigginton is prone to these ridiculous power-hitting streaks, much like the one we saw at the end of June (6 HR in 8 games). It’s then, and only then, that you should own him.

19. Brett Lawrie, TOR | 51 R, .354, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 11 SB (Triple-A)

Lawrie was ready to get called up and then he had to go ahead and get hit by a pitch on his hand. Ok, ok it’s not his fault, but it set him back considerably. I’m a little cautious because we’ve seen so many rookies struggle after being called up this year, but he’s worth the gamble especially in keeper leagues.

20. Gordon Beckham, CHW | 35 R, .248, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB

Will we see another resurgence by Beckham in the second half? I don’t see it happening and he definitely won’t be on my team if it does. Don’t these prospects know that they are supposed to be getting better?

21. Ryan Roberts, ARI | 48 R, .258, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 13 SB

If you didn’t sell high after Roberts’ hot start in April I just have one question for you: WHAT WERE YOU THINKING?!?

22. Alexi Casilla, MIN | 43 R, .255, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 13 SB

 Nothing to see here except a tiny guy running fast. But there’s some value in that.

23. Darwin Barney, CHC | 40 R, .300, 1 HR, 32 RBI, 4 SB

His empty batting average is sort of like Ritz crackers. They are very good, but you are never left satisfied.

24. Mark Ellis, COL | 34 R, .237, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 8 SB

Ellis has had a small comeback (.327/.365/.612) after taking his talents to Colorado. Still he’s burned us so many times before it’s hard to believe.

25. Jemile Weeks, OAK | 15 R, .294, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 8 SB

Weeks has a chance to help you in steals and that’s about it. His batting average will be mediocre and his power numbers will be non-existent. Still, if you feel the need for speed it seems like Weeks is here to stay so pick him up. Then go watch a Fast and the Furious marathon.

Honorable Mention 

Daniel Murphy, NYM | 35 R, .307, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 4 SB

Murphy is your typical “do nothing great, but everything solid” player. At least Weeks has a chance to be dominant in one category.

Don’t like my rankings? Tell me about it in the comments section or on Twitter @BaseballProf.

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Fantasy "eBay"sball: Buying hot/cold starts?

By on April 26, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

We are almost through the first month of the season, which is enough time to start weeding out the duds from the studs. Some, like the Yankees’ Russell Martin, are harder to figure out than most.

Martin came into this year on a severe career downward trend that had many believing he was washed up. Less than a month into the season, Martin is sitting with a .328 average, six home runs and 16 RBI. That’s good for the top rank among catchers.

But hey, hindsight is 20/20 right? We want to know how he’s going to do from here on out.

My suggestion would be to get while the gettin’ is good, because Martin has shown a trend of wearing down as the season grows older. It’s possible he makes it to 20 home runs because of his home ball park, but I would take the under and would definitely trade him before his value starts to dip. It’s hard enough to trade catchers and one sign of weakness and he’s yours whether you like it or not.

His value is arguably at its peak and if you can get something of value, I would pull the trigger because there’s a good chance Martin will be replacement level by midseason.

Here’s my take on some other hot and cold starts to the 2011 baseball season:

Hot Starts

Who I’m Buyin’

Matt Kemp, OF, LAD (.402 BA, 5 HR, 8 SB) — We told you to buy into a bounce back season and he’s not disappointing. He could get to 40 steals this year.

Colby Rasmus, OF, STL (.333 BA, 17 R, 3 HR, 2 SB) — Platoon? What platoon? Rasmus is hitting over .300 against all pitchers and, even better, he has over a .400 on-base percentage against them as well.

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT (.284, 15 R, 3 HR, 9 SB) — Has cooled off a little as of late, but nothing will stop me from loving Tabata batting in front of the likes of Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez.

Kyle Lohse, SP, STL (3 W, 31.1 IP, 22 K, 2.01 ERA, 0.73 WHIP) — You can read my take on Lohse here.

Josh Beckett, SP, BOS (2 W, 28 IP, 28 K, 1.93 WHIP, 0.79 WHIP) — Beckett has his binky back in Jason Varitek, which means good numbers are in his future. Just keep your fingers crossed that Varitek, a 39-year-old catcher doesn’t get injured for an extended period of time.

Drew Storen, RP, WAS (3 SV, 12.2 IP, 9 K, 0.71 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) — It was only a matter of time that Storen got his job back and he wasted very little time in doing so. Sean Burnett got his first save on April 2 and Storen has three saves just 24 days later. He looks like a former top-10 pick.

Who I’m Not Buyin’

Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW (.293, 6 HR, 16 RBI) — I’m buying the production, but not the fact that he’s going to be healthy all year. His career high in games played is 131 and he is continually among the leaders in the hit by pitch category. You could probably get something very good for him now.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, KC (.325 BA, 4 HR, 18 RBI) — Once the calendar turns to May, the real Francoeur will resurface. It seems like he does this every year and he hasn’t changed anything in his approach to make me think he’s a different player.

Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS, BOS (.431, 3 HR, 13 R, 12 RBI) — Much like Quentin, I believe in the production (OK, so the average is a little high), but there’s no doubt in my mind that Scutaro is going to steal at-bats and Lowrie hasn’t been the most durable of players in his career.

Justin Masterson, SP, CLE (4 W, 26.1 IP, 14 K, 2.02 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) — He almost had me believing, but then I remembered he was Justin Masterson. I still don’t see enough improvement against lefties to be able to trust him most than a spot starter at this point.

Randy Wolf, SP, MIL (3 W, 30.2 IP, 29 K, 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) — Wolf is a solid pitcher, but an 8.52 K/9? That’s a bit extreme and Wolf shouldn’t be anything more than a spot starter in 10-team mixed leagues.

Cold Starts

Who I’m Buying

Carl Crawford, OF, BOS (.171 BA, 5 R, 1 HR, 4 SB) — Crawford is a great player. Crawford is a great player. Crawford is a great player. Convinced yet? This is as close to rock bottom as you can get for a hitter, but better days are ahead.

Adam Dunn, 1B, CHW (.145 BA, 2 HR, 8 RBI) — He’s swinging and missing at 17 percent of his swings and considering his career average is a little under 12 percent that’s a significant difference. Never rule out a 40-home run season for this guy.

Nick Markakis, OF, BAL (.208 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI) — If it’s one thing you can count on his Markakis it’s that he’s going to hit for a good batting average. When that isn’t there he’s not rosterable. Right now, owners are realizing that the hard way, but the patient ones will be rewarded with a good average and a good amount of runs/RBI.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU (1 W, 30 IP, 27 K, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) — A lot of people gave up on Wandy last year and then he was one of the best pitchers in the second half. His 27 K:9 BB ratio is a good sign that he will turn things around soon.

Daniel Hudson, SP, ARI (0 W, 24.1 IP, 26 K, 5.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) — Here’s another pitcher who will turn things around this season. Hudson has yet to win his first game, but still is striking out a lot of batters and all his underlying stats are in the same ballpark as last year except for his control. Something that can be fixed.

Matt Thornton, RP, CHW (0 SV, 6.2 IP, 7 K, 6.75 ERA, 2.40 WHIP) — The White Sox want Thornton to be their closer and ever since he lost the job he has pitched two innings with four strikeouts. A couple more solid outings and he will be put back in as closer.

Who I’m Not Buying

Derek Jeter, SS, NYY (.257 BA, 12 R, 0 HR, 0 SB) — The rough offseason. His age. Plays a taxing position. There are many reasons to hate Jeter this year and he’s showing that his 2010 numbers weren’t a fluke. This player is legitimately on his last legs and I’d be surprised if he made it through his whole new contract before retiring.

Chase Utley, 2B, PHI (N/A) —Speaking of not being a fan, I’m not buying into much production from Utley this year. The team is hopeful that Utley will return at the end of May, but how effective will he be on the field? My bet is he plays fewer than 40 games.

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN (1 W, 20.2 IP, 14 K, 7.40 ERA, 1.69 WHIP) — Sometimes you just have to accept when you’re wrong. I had Liriano as a nice option for this season, but he has done his best to make me, and himself, look like a fool. Liriano really hasn’t put together a good, full season in his career and it raises the question, why did we let the smoke screen blind us?

Javier Vazquez, SP, FLA (1 W, 19.1 IP, 11 K, 6.52 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) — I saw a lot of people pegging Vazquez as a sleeper because of his move back to the National League. What I saw, and still see, is a power pitcher who has lost velocity on his power pitches. Normally, that’s not a good sign.

Ryan Franklin, RP, STL (1 SV, 8 IP, 3 K, 7.87 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) — It seems like the ride is over for Franklin. Not only has he been horribly ineffective this year, but Mitchell Boggs has been very good as the team’s new closer.

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Tuesday’s Recap: The new-look Mark Teixeira

By on April 6, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Year after year you would hear the same argument; Yeah, Mark Teixeira is great, but watch out for his atrocious Aprils. Well, guess again folks because good ol’ Tex has thrown us another curve ball this year.

After batting an uncharacteristically low .256 last year, Teixeira fell down draft boards into the mid-to-late second round and behind fellow AL East slugger Adrian Gonzalez. However, the notorious slow starter (career .239/.348/.423 in April) has come out with guns a’blazing with four home runs in his first five games.

Texiera has had great fortune with his fly balls so far (57.1 HR/FB%), but he’s also helping out his cause by not hitting a lot of ground balls (26.7 GB%). Of course, these numbers will not stay at their current levels and Teixeira’s power will come back to earth, but owners who drafted him thinking April was a lost cause are getting some very nice bonus stats in the meantime.

I would say that Teixeira looks like the player we all saw in 2009 when he hit 39 home runs and those who believed in a bounce back season will be greatly rewarded with a borderline first round player at a discounted price.

Three Up

David Wright, 3B, NYM - 4-for-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB

Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL - CG, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K

Alex Gordon, 3B/OF, KC – 3-for-5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI

Three Down

Cole Hamels, SP, PHI - 2 2/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, KC - 0-for-4, 3 K, 3 LOB

J.A. Happ, SP, HOU - 4 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

Notes:

  • Clayton Kershaw was the victim of the thin air at Coors Field last night, surrendering two home runs over six innings, but what was most impressive to me was his 8:1 K:BB ratio. In 13 innings this season, Kershaw has a 17:2 ratio which is a great sign that he is ready to jump into the conversation of elite fantasy pitchers. If he can keep up the trend of lasting longer into games and improving his control there is no reason why Kershaw can’t be 2011′s top fantasy pitcher.
  • Two players who were known for their great hitting approach, but not their power already have two home runs on the season. Yes, I’m talking about Billy Butler and Logan Morrison. Unfortunately for Butler, he is batting in a depleted Royals lineup and the effect is shown in his RBI total so far (3). Butler is currently hitting line drives at a 37.1-percent rate and it’s just a matter of whether those line drives will turn into fly balls—and possibly more home runs—or grounders. Morrison, who has shown this power before in the minor-leagues, could be a sleeper to drive in 90-100 runs if he remains the Marlins’ No. 5 hitter.
  • I went into last night ready to just discard Brian Duensing‘s start against the Yankees, but he actually impressed me. The four earned runs in seven innings don’t bother me because the Yankees offense is one of the best in the league, but his 7:2 K:BB ratio is very impressive. Duensing isn’t a strikeout pitcher, which is why he is only owned in 21-percent of Yahoo! leagues, but keep a close eye on him. A good strategy could be to pick him up as WHIP insurance for a high-strikeout pitcher like Jonathan Sanchez.

Nicks, bruises and cuts:

Chicago’s Carlos Pena is day-to-day with a sprained right thumb. … The Angels’ Erick Aybar missed last night’s game with tightness in his right side. … Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips got the wind knocked out of him and left the game in the fourth inning.

Links from around the league:

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MLB Injury Updates

By on March 21, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

We are coming into the final stretch run of fantasy baseball drafts and spring training wouldn’t be interesting if it wasn’t for the injury news. Fantasy owners will check everything short of a player’s SSN and Credit Score before deciding to take him on for the next six months. Well, I scoured the interweb for you and gathered the most fantasy-related injury news I could find. I’m not a doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

What you’ll find is a lot of links, some analysis and a confidence level rating at the end of it all. And why not base the confidence meter on the world’s most confident man—Charlie Sheen. We’re here to have fun, right?

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

Gonzalez recently said that he wants to play all 162 games this year, which sounds to me that he is feeling pretty good. He still doesn’t have full range of his shoulder when he is on the field, but he looks good at the plate and should be ready to go when the season starts.

Confidence level: Bi-winning. Because if you draft him you won’t just win once, you’ll win twice. I think I just coined AGon’s fantasy slogan. This right here is why you go to college kids.

Kendrys Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

Morales still has been offically ruled out for opening day as he is still recovering from a broken leg. The slugger hasn’t begun any running drills yet and if he does play in the season opener it will be as a designated hitter. The fact that he hasn’t been able to run yet is very worrisome and it could be something he deals with for the first half of the season. I’m bumping him down a bit on my draft board and would rather have Justin Morneau or Paul Konerko at this point.

Confidence Level: Jon Cryer. He may make some money later on with another gig, but having the rug pulled out from under him by Charlie Sheen like this has got to hurt. Life for Cryer may never get better than his days of getting paid to play Sheen’s nagging, metrosexual brother in a show that went past the prime once Angus T. Jones hit puberty.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

If there is any positive news on Utley’s future I haven’t been able to find it. He has patellar tendinitis and bone swelling—two things you probably want to avoid in life— and is almost a guarantee to miss the beginning of the season. However, it shouldn’t be April that Utley owners worry about, but the entire 2011 season. The Phillies just signed Luis Castillo for insurance, which has to tell you that the team is worried about Utley’s future. I am not touching Utley in drafts unless his price is significantly lowered to around $4-$5 or the last couple of rounds in snake drafts.

Confidence Level: Troll. I can only imagine that Utley, who has no cartilage in his knee, would love to be one of those plastic trolls right about now. You know, because they either don’t have knees or can’t bend them…

Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins

Johnson struggled in his first spring outing and pitched very well in his second, using a new sinker pitch to induce more ground balls. However, Johnson has quite an injury history with Tommy John and shoulder surgery both in the last three years. He supposedly lost some weight and added strength over the offseason, but the chance he makes it through a full season healthy isn’t great, which is why he is on the tail end of my top-10 rather than the beginning.

Confidence Level: Vatican Assassin Warlock. Because it sounds like the coolest thing in the world, but no one knows what it actually means so is it really cool? Just like drafting Josh Johnson looks like a great decision based on the numbers, but you probably won’t get a full season out of him.

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Ryan Raburn: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 14, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

His name sounds like some futuristic skin ailment but Ryan Raburn is someone who matters now. The Detroit Tigers’ 30-year-old utility man may finally claim a starting spot on Opening Day. He will duke it out with Brennan Boesch in Spring Training to be the team’s everyday left fielder, but the Vegas odds are heavily in Raburn’s favor.

If you stopped paying close attention to baseball in mid-summer you might have missed Raburn’s impressive second half stats. After playing sporadically prior to the All-Star break, Raburn batted a robust .315 with 13 home runs and 46 RBI after the break, earning himself more playing time in the process. Although Raburn only had 371 at-bats on the year, he still managed to hit 15 home runs. He hit a HR every 24.7 at-bats, which was more frequent than Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley. Even more impressive, Raburn hit a HR every 16.3 at-bats in 2009. With that proven power stroke imagine what he can do in a full season.

Raburn reminds me a little bit of Ben Zobrist prior to the 2009 season. If you recall, Zobrist was also a super utility-type player who had shown flashes of power in limited playing time. He was finally given 500-plus at-bats in 2009 and clubbed 27 home runs. Raburn can have that type of impact. Also like Zobrist, Raburn has multi-position eligibility. In addition to being an outfielder, Raburn qualifies at second base, playing 18 games there in 2010. The comparisons stop there, however. Zobrist is a base stealer while Raburn is not, but Raburn will hit for a better average. Over the past two years Raburn has notched a .285 average in 632 at-bats.

It will be interested to see where Raburn bats in the Tigers lineup. He actually batted third for the majority of his at-bats last year but that is unlikely to happen again with the acquisition of Victor Martinez. He’ll most likely hit either second (where he will rack up plenty of runs) or sixth where he will have ample opportunities to drive in Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez. Regardless of where he hits, it will be a favorable spot.

Raburn is a must-buy if you’re bargain hunting at the end of your draft. He will be a welcome addition to your outfield but he will provide the most value at second base. With great power for a middle infielder and no weakness other than steals, you’ll turn a nice profit from a minimal investment.

2011 Fantasy Projection

82 R | .283 AVG | 24 HR | 86 RBI | 5 SB

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