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Player Profile #108: Miguel Montero | C | ARI

Few catchers can be counted upon to provide above average gains in multiple fantasy categories, but Miguel Montero is one of them. Despite the fact that his xBAs over the last three seasons haven’t topped .277, he’s been able to consistently outperform them to the tune of a .282 average during that span. Perhaps, like Matt Cain and FIP, Montero is one of the outliers that just don’t quite fit projection systems. Either way, he should provide a solid average, high teens in homers and at least 80 RBI as the cleanup hitter for the Diamondbacks. With Victor Martinez out for the season, good catchers are worth more than they were a few short weeks ago.

Best case scenario: Brian McCann (ATL)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Matt Wieters (BAL), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: John Buck (MIA)

Strengths

Lineup slot, balance, power vs. RHP. Montero bats fourth for a pretty good lineup. Justin Upton is one of the game’s bright young stars and Stephen Drew’s return from injury can only help. Montero can also contribute in three of five categories, and even his runs aren’t terrible for a catcher. Last year Montero hit 18 homers in 493 at-bats, but 17 of those came in just 380 at-bats versus right-handed pitchers. If he had 493 at-bats against righties, that would have worked out to 22 homers.

Weaknesses

SB, vs. LHP. Steals are a weakness for just about every catcher so we can pretty much toss those out. Montero also seems to struggle against left-handed pitchers. This wasn’t the case back in 2009 (.329 BA), which skews the numbers a bit, but in 2010 he batted .213 against lefties and last season he was an abysmal .195.

ADP Report (105.1)

Montero hasn’t ranked this high in terms of overall, end-of-year rank, but his 2011 stat line is extremely repeatable (ranked 128), and he’s one of the last few players you’d want to get at a position that drops off rather sharply. I wouldn’t reach higher than this, but 105 is an acceptable ADP.

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Player Profile #122: Matt Wieters | C | BAL

The Orioles’ Tower of Power, the Game’s Next Joe Mauer. That’s what a magazine cover read before Matt Wieters‘ rookie season a few years ago. Well, 2009 and 2010 didn’t go quite as expected, and Wieters sort of fell out of the eye of mainstream fans who chose to focus on the next wave of young stars like Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward. But lo! Wieters actually put together a pretty nice 2011 season that included his first 20-homer campaign and a good-for-a-catcher 72 runs. I’d say we should see more improvement in year four.

Best case scenario: Brian McCann (ATL)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Miguel Montero (ARI), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Wilson Ramos (WAS)

Strengths

HR, R. Wieters has enough power to hit 25-plus homers, which is good for almost any position but great for a catcher. The same goes for runs scored. Wieters spent most of last year batting sixth or seventh, but this year he projects as the fifth batter in Baltimore’s lineup. That should result in more RBI opportunities, and, combined with Wieters’ .274 xBA last season versus his .262 actual average, we could see a stark rise in runs driven in.

Weaknesses

Lineup. I really like Wieters as a very good, but not elite, catching option. Batting average would normally be a weakness, but when you compare him to all catchers, it’s tough to find anyone who hits for an average over .270 and can hit some homers, too.

ADP Report (102.1)

This ADP is a bit high and probably the result of drafters panicking about getting stuck with someone like J.P. Arencibia or Wilson Ramos as their starting catcher. Believe it or not, those guys are going just three catchers after Wieters on average. If reaching here is what it takes to prevent getting stuck with a vastly inferior option, then go for it, but it’s unlikely Wieters lives up to this pick and finishes the year as a borderline top 100 option.

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Player Profile #142: Jesus Montero | C | SEA

OK, so Jesus Montero‘s move to Safeco Field isn’t all bad. First off, he’s almost guaranteed to get 600 plate appearances and should bat in the heart of the Mariners lineup. Another plus is that he should gain catcher eligibility quicker in Seattle than he would have in New York. We all know how hard Seattle can be on a righties power numbers, but Montero should be able to at least hit for average with some power and get on base. Last season, he hit .328 with a .406 OBP and .262 ISO in just 18 games. Small sample size, yes, but he’s a top prospect that could threaten 30 home runs in his prime.

Best case scenario: Brian McCann (ATL)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Miguel Montero (ARI), Matt Wieters (BAL)
Worst case scenario: Finds himself in some sort of platoon situation

Strengths

Average, power, OBP. We don’t have much to go off of in his MLB career, but Montero has never hit worse than .280 and posted a career .366 OBP in the minor leagues. He also posted three plus-.200 ISOs and I could see him reproducing all three in the pros.

Weaknesses

Fielding, inexperience, ballpark. The big knock on Montero is that he’s not much of a catcher so he will probably be relegated to mostly DH duties. Also, the inexperience and home ballpark might keep him from breaking out right away.

ADP Report (181.5)

There’s no doubt about it; Montero is one of baseball’s young, promising hitters, but his move to Seattle could put a damper on his numbers early in his career thanks to the ballpark. That being said, he will gain a lot of valuable experience right away and should blossom into a viable top-5 catcher for years to come so those in keeper leagues will want to invest early on this young stud.

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Player Profile #146: Alex Avila | C | DET

Many owners wondered all last year whether Alex Avila could sustain his success. Well, thanks to a .366 BABIP, great plate discipline (13.2 BB%) and a decrease in ground balls (37.8 GB% from 43.5) he was able to put up an impressive .295/.389/.506 slash along with 19 homers and 82 RBI. Now the big question is whether can he replicate it in 2012? My guess is no but he is still a top 10 catcher and is a decent consolation prize if you miss out on the other big names at the position. After Avila things get really ugly really quickly. The power is real, but you might see the batting average drop a bit.

Best case scenario: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Similar players: Matt Wieters (BAL), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), Miguel Montero (ARI)
Worst case scenario: Miguel Olivo (COL)

Strengths

Power, OBP. Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, Avila had the fourth highest walk percentage (13.2%) and the seventh lowest swing percentage on pitches outside the strike zone (24.8%), so it’s clear he has a great batting eye.

Weaknesses

BABIP, ground balls. Avila’s .366 BABIP is going to come back down to earth because his previous career high was .306. Also, his power could be compromised if Avila’s affinity for the ground ball comes back. He went from hitting them about 43 percent of the time to just 37.8 percent, which is a significant drop off.

ADP Report (110.9 overall)

Maybe Avila finally found his groove as a hitter at the age of 24, but I think luck also played into his breakout 2011 season. If you want to draft Avila you will probably have to take him this early, but I would pass and take a similar upside player like J.P. Arencibia several rounds later even though it’ll likely cost you about 30-40 points in batting average. If that’s the route you plan on going, hedge your bets and get some high-average guys.

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Player Profile #176: J.P. Arencibia | C | TOR

Last season J.P. Arencibia hit the fourth most homers of any catcher posted the second highest ISO of the 26 catchers who had 300 plate appearances. Unfortunately he had the lowest batting average of those 26 catchers and the third highest strikeout rate. Strikeouts aren’t new for Arencibia, though for what it’s worth he was a low-20 percent guy for his minor league career. If he could drop his K rate from the 27.4 percent we saw last year to something around 22 percent this season (without improving anywhere else such as line drive rate), his expected batting average (xBA) would rise from the .231 we saw in 2011 to about .251. That’s still not good, but it would have ranked 17th of 26 at the position. There’s no surprises here. Power and some upside but not a good average.

Best case scenario: Mike Napoli, pre-2011 (TEX)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Geovany Soto (CHC), Alfonso Soriano (CHC)
Worst case scenario: Miguel Olivo (SEA)

Strengths

HR, vs. LHP. Arencibia kills left-handed pitching (from a power standpoint) with a homer every 13 at-bats versus lefties. The .233 average isn’t great but you’re not drafting him for that.

Weaknesses

Anything but HR or RBI, vs. RHP, vs. power pitchers. Baseball Reference has some pretty awesome splits, one of which is how a batter performs against power pitchers, finesse pitchers and those in the middle. For their purposes they define a power pitcher as someone in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks and a finesse pitcher as someone in the bottom third of the league. For his career, Arencibia has a .203 average, a .630 OPS and hits a homer every 44 at-bats versus power pitchers. Against finesse pitchers he has a .254 average, an .853 OPS and hits a homer every 15 at-bats. To test this the first power pitchers I thought of in the AL East in terms of strikeouts plus walks were Jon Lester, CC Sabathia and David Price (all lefties, his strength). Arencibia is a combined 7-for-43 (.163) with one homer against them. The first finesse pitchers I thought of were Jeremy Guthrie, Bartolo Colon and Wade Davis. Arencibia is 7-for-26 (.269) with two homers against them. I know the finesse pitchers represent a much inferior group to the power pitchers I listed, but there appears to be some truth to this.

ADP Report (180.3)

If you’re power-starved in later rounds and don’t have a catcher you really want Arencibia. He’s probably a good value here given the lack of option after him. You really don’t want to be starting someone like Ramon Hernandez or Miguel Olivo at catcher. They’re either easily replaceable (Hernandez) or lesser versions of Arencibia (Olivo). That said, keep in mind that Arencibia’s .219/23/78 season was only good for 317th last year. I think he’ll improve in all those categories, but he’s probably not cracking the top 175.

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Don't Hate the Player, Hate the ADP: Joe Mauer

If I could have any catcher on my team it would be Joe Mauer. Unfortunately I don’t have him on any of my teams and I doubt I’ll get him in any of my upcoming drafts. The reason being his ADP of 26.8 is far too high for my liking.

Mauer is drafted so early because of position scarcity. Since catcher is viewed as a weak position and he is far and away the best backstop, owners justify spending a high pick on a player who finished last year with nine home runs, 75 RBI and one stolen base. I am usually a big proponent of position scarcity but not in Mauer’s case.

One reason is that catcher is as deep as it’s been in a long time. In addition to Mauer there are several top flight catchers such as Victor Martinez, Brian McCann and Buster Posey who offer good batting averages and have more power than Mauer. Also players like Carlos Santana (ADP 90), Geovany Soto (136.2), Miguel Montero (160.7) and Matt Wieters (170.1) offer great value in the middle rounds. They won’t hurt you in batting average and they too have more power than Mauer. Mike Napoli is going even later than all of them and he nearly tripled Mauer’s home run total last year. Keep in mind how scarce power has become in fantasy baseball.

If I were to rank every position on how important it is to get the best player at the position, catcher would definitely be last. Not because I think catcher is the deepest position but because it is the least important. Let me explain.

Because catcher is the most demanding position on the field, catchers get more rest than any other position player. As a result, they get significantly fewer at-bats than players at other positions.

Last year, Mauer led all catchers with 510 at-bats. The next position with the lowest number of at-bats for the position leader was first base with 609. That’s almost 100 more at-bats than Mauer! With catchers getting so many fewer at-bats, they won’t have as much of an impact, which is why catcher is the least important position. The low at-bat total is the reason why Mauer’s biggest strength, batting average, doesn’t nearly have as much impact as the batting average of someone like Ichiro, who will hit over .300 over the course of 650 at-bats.

The only way Mauer can justify his high ADP is if he hits close to 20 home runs or steals double-digit bases. However, both are unlikely to happen. The 28 home runs he hit in 2009 will never be repeated because his HR/FB ratio was an astronomical 20.4. To put that in perspective, Mauer’s HR/FB ratio was 6.7 last year and 6.5 in 2008. As for the stolen bases, Mauer hasn’t reach double digits since 2005 and he has a combined six steals over the past three years.

When the third round rolls along do yourself a favor and bypass Mauer’s name knowing that there will be plenty of good catchers available later in the draft. Instead, draft top talent at thinner positions such as Jose Reyes (36.8) or Dustin Pedroia (28.9).

Better yet, draft someone like Matt Kemp or Justin Upton. They are far more likely to have a greater impact in all five categories than Mauer.

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