Tag Archives | C

Player Profile #87: Joe Mauer | C | MIN

By on February 3, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Sure, we’ll rank Joe Mauer 87th. That seems like a pretty non-controversial ranking. It’s high enough that he’s still considered a top fantasy talent, especially at his position, but it’s low enough to reflect the risk associated with having Mauer as your starting catcher. No one expects Mauer to come close to hitting 28 homers again, especially at Target Field, but a .300-plus average and around 70-80 runs and RBI are expected totals. In 2010 such a season was good for 85th overall.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy and finishes first among all catchers
Similar players: Miguel Montero (ARI), Mike Napoli (TEX) with a better average but fewer homers, Michael Young (TEX)
Worst case scenario: Injuries linger once again

Strengths

BA, R, RBI, vs. RHP. These three stats are very hard to find among catchers, particularly the first two. With Victor Martinez out, no other catcher can provide all three like a healthy Mauer. And while Mauer has always hit well against almost everyone, he’s demolished right-handed pitchers to the tune of a .338 average and .942 OPS for his career.

Weaknesses

HR, injury. Mauer doesn’t hit a lot of homers. Some may draft him hoping that good health will lead to another 20-homer campaign, but I’ll cap his single-season total at about 12-14. As for the injuries? Those will be a concern for the rest of his career.

ADP Report (81.8)

I wouldn’t go much higher than this for Mauer. He has elite potential, ranking ninth overall in 2009, but it’s unlikely he ever approaches those numbers again. His 2010 line is what we should project for 2012, and that was good enough for 85th. No matter where you pick Mauer, though, you better have a good backup plan. It might even be a good idea to draft someone like J.P. Arencibia to hedge your bet.

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Player Profile #99: Buster Posey | C | SFG

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

We all know about the hit that ended Buster Posey‘s 2011 season, but what we don’t know if whether it will have any lingering effects in 2012. Reports of his recovery this offseason have been positive, but there’s not telling how his leg will react to the rigors of a 162-game schedule. This is the risk you take on with Posey because as a hitter you know what you’re getting: a disciplined, .300 hitter who can also hit for pretty good power.  Some people call him Joe Mauer light, but he has a chance to be better if he shows his power is consistent.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy and produces similar to 2010 numbers
Similar players: Joe Mauer (MIN), Miguel Montero (ARI), Billy Butler (KC)
Worst case scenario: Isn’t able to make it through whole 2012 season

Strengths

Batting average, plate discipline. At 25, Posey is already a very selective hitter, which will help him keep his batting average up. His 22 percent O-Swing% before he got injured was well below the league average (30.6%).

Weaknesses

Ballpark, injury. We’ve talked about the injury concerns, but he’s also struggled to hit at home (.246 BA, .138 ISO at home) in his young career. Just for comparison, Posey has a .334 BA and .192 ISO on the road.

ADP Report (59.8)

Currently, Posey is going fourth among catchers behind Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli and Brian McCann. That seems about right to me, but what I can’t get on board with is taking him in the sixth round when so many quality bats are still available at other positions. However, there is a huge drop off at catcher with Alex Avila around the 11th round so you will want to make suer you grab your catcher before they are all gone.

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Player Profile #108: Miguel Montero | C | ARI

By on January 29, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Few catchers can be counted upon to provide above average gains in multiple fantasy categories, but Miguel Montero is one of them. Despite the fact that his xBAs over the last three seasons haven’t topped .277, he’s been able to consistently outperform them to the tune of a .282 average during that span. Perhaps, like Matt Cain and FIP, Montero is one of the outliers that just don’t quite fit projection systems. Either way, he should provide a solid average, high teens in homers and at least 80 RBI as the cleanup hitter for the Diamondbacks. With Victor Martinez out for the season, good catchers are worth more than they were a few short weeks ago.

Best case scenario: Brian McCann (ATL)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Matt Wieters (BAL), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: John Buck (MIA)

Strengths

Lineup slot, balance, power vs. RHP. Montero bats fourth for a pretty good lineup. Justin Upton is one of the game’s bright young stars and Stephen Drew’s return from injury can only help. Montero can also contribute in three of five categories, and even his runs aren’t terrible for a catcher. Last year Montero hit 18 homers in 493 at-bats, but 17 of those came in just 380 at-bats versus right-handed pitchers. If he had 493 at-bats against righties, that would have worked out to 22 homers.

Weaknesses

SB, vs. LHP. Steals are a weakness for just about every catcher so we can pretty much toss those out. Montero also seems to struggle against left-handed pitchers. This wasn’t the case back in 2009 (.329 BA), which skews the numbers a bit, but in 2010 he batted .213 against lefties and last season he was an abysmal .195.

ADP Report (105.1)

Montero hasn’t ranked this high in terms of overall, end-of-year rank, but his 2011 stat line is extremely repeatable (ranked 128), and he’s one of the last few players you’d want to get at a position that drops off rather sharply. I wouldn’t reach higher than this, but 105 is an acceptable ADP.

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Player Profile #122: Matt Wieters | C | BAL

By on January 25, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

The Orioles’ Tower of Power, the Game’s Next Joe Mauer. That’s what a magazine cover read before Matt Wieters‘ rookie season a few years ago. Well, 2009 and 2010 didn’t go quite as expected, and Wieters sort of fell out of the eye of mainstream fans who chose to focus on the next wave of young stars like Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward. But lo! Wieters actually put together a pretty nice 2011 season that included his first 20-homer campaign and a good-for-a-catcher 72 runs. I’d say we should see more improvement in year four.

Best case scenario: Brian McCann (ATL)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Miguel Montero (ARI), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Wilson Ramos (WAS)

Strengths

HR, R. Wieters has enough power to hit 25-plus homers, which is good for almost any position but great for a catcher. The same goes for runs scored. Wieters spent most of last year batting sixth or seventh, but this year he projects as the fifth batter in Baltimore’s lineup. That should result in more RBI opportunities, and, combined with Wieters’ .274 xBA last season versus his .262 actual average, we could see a stark rise in runs driven in.

Weaknesses

Lineup. I really like Wieters as a very good, but not elite, catching option. Batting average would normally be a weakness, but when you compare him to all catchers, it’s tough to find anyone who hits for an average over .270 and can hit some homers, too.

ADP Report (102.1)

This ADP is a bit high and probably the result of drafters panicking about getting stuck with someone like J.P. Arencibia or Wilson Ramos as their starting catcher. Believe it or not, those guys are going just three catchers after Wieters on average. If reaching here is what it takes to prevent getting stuck with a vastly inferior option, then go for it, but it’s unlikely Wieters lives up to this pick and finishes the year as a borderline top 100 option.

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Player Profile #142: Jesus Montero | C | SEA

By on January 19, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

OK, so Jesus Montero‘s move to Safeco Field isn’t all bad. First off, he’s almost guaranteed to get 600 plate appearances and should bat in the heart of the Mariners lineup. Another plus is that he should gain catcher eligibility quicker in Seattle than he would have in New York. We all know how hard Seattle can be on a righties power numbers, but Montero should be able to at least hit for average with some power and get on base. Last season, he hit .328 with a .406 OBP and .262 ISO in just 18 games. Small sample size, yes, but he’s a top prospect that could threaten 30 home runs in his prime.

Best case scenario: Brian McCann (ATL)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Miguel Montero (ARI), Matt Wieters (BAL)
Worst case scenario: Finds himself in some sort of platoon situation

Strengths

Average, power, OBP. We don’t have much to go off of in his MLB career, but Montero has never hit worse than .280 and posted a career .366 OBP in the minor leagues. He also posted three plus-.200 ISOs and I could see him reproducing all three in the pros.

Weaknesses

Fielding, inexperience, ballpark. The big knock on Montero is that he’s not much of a catcher so he will probably be relegated to mostly DH duties. Also, the inexperience and home ballpark might keep him from breaking out right away.

ADP Report (181.5)

There’s no doubt about it; Montero is one of baseball’s young, promising hitters, but his move to Seattle could put a damper on his numbers early in his career thanks to the ballpark. That being said, he will gain a lot of valuable experience right away and should blossom into a viable top-5 catcher for years to come so those in keeper leagues will want to invest early on this young stud.

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Player Profile #146: Alex Avila | C | DET

By on January 18, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Many owners wondered all last year whether Alex Avila could sustain his success. Well, thanks to a .366 BABIP, great plate discipline (13.2 BB%) and a decrease in ground balls (37.8 GB% from 43.5) he was able to put up an impressive .295/.389/.506 slash along with 19 homers and 82 RBI. Now the big question is whether can he replicate it in 2012? My guess is no but he is still a top 10 catcher and is a decent consolation prize if you miss out on the other big names at the position. After Avila things get really ugly really quickly. The power is real, but you might see the batting average drop a bit.

Best case scenario: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Similar players: Matt Wieters (BAL), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), Miguel Montero (ARI)
Worst case scenario: Miguel Olivo (COL)

Strengths

Power, OBP. Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, Avila had the fourth highest walk percentage (13.2%) and the seventh lowest swing percentage on pitches outside the strike zone (24.8%), so it’s clear he has a great batting eye.

Weaknesses

BABIP, ground balls. Avila’s .366 BABIP is going to come back down to earth because his previous career high was .306. Also, his power could be compromised if Avila’s affinity for the ground ball comes back. He went from hitting them about 43 percent of the time to just 37.8 percent, which is a significant drop off.

ADP Report (110.9 overall)

Maybe Avila finally found his groove as a hitter at the age of 24, but I think luck also played into his breakout 2011 season. If you want to draft Avila you will probably have to take him this early, but I would pass and take a similar upside player like J.P. Arencibia several rounds later even though it’ll likely cost you about 30-40 points in batting average. If that’s the route you plan on going, hedge your bets and get some high-average guys.

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Player Profile #176: J.P. Arencibia | C | TOR

By on January 8, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Last season J.P. Arencibia hit the fourth most homers of any catcher posted the second highest ISO of the 26 catchers who had 300 plate appearances. Unfortunately he had the lowest batting average of those 26 catchers and the third highest strikeout rate. Strikeouts aren’t new for Arencibia, though for what it’s worth he was a low-20 percent guy for his minor league career. If he could drop his K rate from the 27.4 percent we saw last year to something around 22 percent this season (without improving anywhere else such as line drive rate), his expected batting average (xBA) would rise from the .231 we saw in 2011 to about .251. That’s still not good, but it would have ranked 17th of 26 at the position. There’s no surprises here. Power and some upside but not a good average.

Best case scenario: Mike Napoli, pre-2011 (TEX)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Geovany Soto (CHC), Alfonso Soriano (CHC)
Worst case scenario: Miguel Olivo (SEA)

Strengths

HR, vs. LHP. Arencibia kills left-handed pitching (from a power standpoint) with a homer every 13 at-bats versus lefties. The .233 average isn’t great but you’re not drafting him for that.

Weaknesses

Anything but HR or RBI, vs. RHP, vs. power pitchers. Baseball Reference has some pretty awesome splits, one of which is how a batter performs against power pitchers, finesse pitchers and those in the middle. For their purposes they define a power pitcher as someone in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks and a finesse pitcher as someone in the bottom third of the league. For his career, Arencibia has a .203 average, a .630 OPS and hits a homer every 44 at-bats versus power pitchers. Against finesse pitchers he has a .254 average, an .853 OPS and hits a homer every 15 at-bats. To test this the first power pitchers I thought of in the AL East in terms of strikeouts plus walks were Jon Lester, CC Sabathia and David Price (all lefties, his strength). Arencibia is a combined 7-for-43 (.163) with one homer against them. The first finesse pitchers I thought of were Jeremy Guthrie, Bartolo Colon and Wade Davis. Arencibia is 7-for-26 (.269) with two homers against them. I know the finesse pitchers represent a much inferior group to the power pitchers I listed, but there appears to be some truth to this.

ADP Report (180.3)

If you’re power-starved in later rounds and don’t have a catcher you really want Arencibia. He’s probably a good value here given the lack of option after him. You really don’t want to be starting someone like Ramon Hernandez or Miguel Olivo at catcher. They’re either easily replaceable (Hernandez) or lesser versions of Arencibia (Olivo). That said, keep in mind that Arencibia’s .219/23/78 season was only good for 317th last year. I think he’ll improve in all those categories, but he’s probably not cracking the top 175.

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