Tag Archives | Buster Posey

Player Profile #99: Buster Posey | C | SFG

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

We all know about the hit that ended Buster Posey‘s 2011 season, but what we don’t know if whether it will have any lingering effects in 2012. Reports of his recovery this offseason have been positive, but there’s not telling how his leg will react to the rigors of a 162-game schedule. This is the risk you take on with Posey because as a hitter you know what you’re getting: a disciplined, .300 hitter who can also hit for pretty good power.  Some people call him Joe Mauer light, but he has a chance to be better if he shows his power is consistent.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy and produces similar to 2010 numbers
Similar players: Joe Mauer (MIN), Miguel Montero (ARI), Billy Butler (KC)
Worst case scenario: Isn’t able to make it through whole 2012 season

Strengths

Batting average, plate discipline. At 25, Posey is already a very selective hitter, which will help him keep his batting average up. His 22 percent O-Swing% before he got injured was well below the league average (30.6%).

Weaknesses

Ballpark, injury. We’ve talked about the injury concerns, but he’s also struggled to hit at home (.246 BA, .138 ISO at home) in his young career. Just for comparison, Posey has a .334 BA and .192 ISO on the road.

ADP Report (59.8)

Currently, Posey is going fourth among catchers behind Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli and Brian McCann. That seems about right to me, but what I can’t get on board with is taking him in the sixth round when so many quality bats are still available at other positions. However, there is a huge drop off at catcher with Alex Avila around the 11th round so you will want to make suer you grab your catcher before they are all gone.

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2012 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Rankings, 41-60

By on September 13, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

We’re marching on in our quest to rank the top 100 keepers for fantasy baseball in 2012 by honing in on guys ranked 41 through 60 today.

Players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Check back tomorrow for players 21 through 40 as we count down the top 100.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

Also, Buster Posey was omitted from our rankings on the first g0-around and was slotted in at 46 ahead of Dan Uggla. You can see the full, updated rankings by going to our 2012 Keeper Rankings page.

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

RankPlayerAgePositionProfessor's Note
41Eric Hosmer221BLooks a lot like the next Joey Votto
42Alex Rodriguez363BHasn't topped 138 games played in last four years
43Jon Lester28SPElite K, ERA, W potential with a pedestrian WHIP
44Matt Cain27SPGreat ERA/WHIP every year but K/9 and W totals aren't ace-like
45David Price26SPSimilar to Lester with lower WHIP but fewer W
46Dan Uggla322BSecond half surge renewed faith in Uggla's all-around game
47Joe Mauer28CJust 12 HR in last two years but move to 1B is likely coming
48Desmond Jennings25OFLooks like the next Carl Crawford with better plate discipline
49Rickie Weeks292BFreak injury derailed a second straight stellar season; have faith
50Asdrubal Cabrera26SSCan the power carry over? Even if not he's still a well-rounded, young SS
51Shin-Soo Choo29OFReal rough year for Choo but I think he's the guy from '09 and '10
52Victor Martinez33CCan you show me a more consistent C? Now a DH, age is no concern
53Madison Bumgarner22SPMajor steps forward in '11; next year he becomes a near-ace
54Mat Latos24SPLow W potential but the rest is elite; '11 struggles were a fluke
55Ben Zobrist301B/2B/OFFantasy's preeminent utility guy does it all
56Ricky Romero27SPLow 3.00s ERA in AL East is something to behold
57Michael Young351B/2B/3BPower dropped but he's the only consistency in heart of Rangers' lineup
58Brett Lawrie223BAlways worth taking a chance on a guy with his power/speed combo
59Tommy Hanson25SPTendency toward breaking pitches worries me
60Paul Konerko361BGetting old but back-to-back .900+ OPS years show he's not done yet

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Russell Martin is (for now) the top-ranked catcher in fantasy baseball

By on May 18, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Thanks to the handy Windows 7 Snipping Tool that comes standard on my brand new computer, you’ll be seeing a lot more pictures in the coming days and weeks.

The reason? It can be difficult and/or wordy to explain the fantasy relevance of box scores and stats. Showing nice, simple screen captures of what’s going on with a few quick notes is a lot shorter for me and a lot more convenient for you. At the risk of beating a dead horse, that’s what Charlie Sheen would call “bi-winning.”

As my first project I decided to look at the current top 10 players at each position as we move through the season’s seventh week. Today we look at possibly the most difficult position to forecast: catchers.

Note: The rankings and % Owned for each player are courtesy of Yahoo!

According to Yahoo!’s preseason rankings, there were five catchers ranked inside the top 75 overall: Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Buster Posey and Carlos Santana. Because of injury (are we surprised?) we don’t see Mauer in this early-season top-10 list. The other four are mixed in but aren’t doing as well as we’d expect.

In fact, no catcher is really doing that well overall as none of them rank higher than Russell Martin at 117 overall. Martinez is without doubt the best catcher thus far in the season but his cumulative totals are hurt by the two weeks he missed in late April and early May with a groin injury. He’s firing on all cylinders now that he’s back. Over the last two weeks he’s batted .415 (17-for-41) with nine runs, two homers, 14 RBI and a 1.172 OPS, good for 11th best in fantasy over that span.

But Martinez’s success isn’t a surprise. The real surprise is something I touched on about 13 seconds ago: the resurgence of Martin. He’s come back down to earth quite rapidly over the last few weeks, registering just one homer and two RBI in his last 10 games while batting .156 (5-for-32) during that time. Still, his seven homers are the most he’s had in a full season since 2008 and he’s actually on pace for 28 homers and 77 runs. I don’t think he’ll reach either of those totals, probably falling well short of the 28 homers and just short of the 77 runs, but overall that still makes him a legit top-10 catcher. From this day on I’d only take Martinez, Santana, McCann, the struggling Posey and the injured Mauer over Martin.

If anyone in your league is skeptical of Santana’s slow start, now might be your last chance to buy. His average sits at just .233 despite batting .314 (11-for-35) over the last two weeks and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is phenomenal. The power numbers and RBI production will come.

Matt Wieters is starting to get hot again, compiling a seven-game hit streak, but once again there is very little pop in his bat. He has just one extra base hit during that span and isn’t scoring enough runs or tallying enough RBI to be worth pursuing.

What about Alex Avila? I’m very high on Avila this season, but in the interest of full disclosure I did drop him a couple days ago in our Baseball Professor league, however that was more an issue of roster space since I’m blessed enough to own his superior Tiger counterpart, Senor Martinez. I won’t sit here and pretend Avila is some major prospect you need to know, but he’s just 24 years old, has a powerful 5-foot-11, 210-pound frame and has a subtle history of home run power. He hit 12 homers in 93 games at Triple-A in 2009 and went on to hit five more homers in just 29 games in the Majors that same season before slumping some in the power department last season (seven in 103 games with Detroit). This season he’s picked up right where he left off in ’09 hitting six so far. With the proper number of at-bats, which it appears he’ll get, we could see a near-20 homer season and possibly 60-plus RBI. Sadly, Avila bats mostly eighth in the Tigers lineup. Still, I’m a fan.

The last quick note will deal with the most frustrating non-injured catcher to own this season: Posey. Compared to last year, Posey’s strikeout rate has been up in 2011 due to a rough April in which he struck out 17 times and batted just .262. So far in May he’s batting .289 and has struck out just six times compared to nine walks, but he hasn’t gotten an extra base hit yet this month in 45 at-bats and has just three RBI. Generally I’m more concerned with a batter’s approach at the plate than I am with his result because a good approach will eventually yield good results, so be patient with Posey.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Overvalued Team

By on March 13, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

I recently put together my 2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Value Team so naturally it’s time to go to the opposite end of the spectrum and put together my All-Overvalued team.

Just because a player is on the list doesn’t mean I don’t like the player. Rather, a player’s inclusion on the list has to do with his price. He’s simply too expensive for my tastes.

Feel free to stop after each player and chant “Overrated! Da-da-dadada!”

Catcher

Buster Posey (ESPN ADP 45.1) – Posey was better than anyone thought he would be last year but if you remember, Carlos Santana, who is going 45 picks later, was supposed to be the better offensive player until he injured his knee. If catcher was as shallow as it’s been in years past, I wouldn’t have a problem with Posey’s draft position. However, catcher is deep this year. Guys like Santana (ADP 89.9), Geovany Soto (ADP 135.4), Miguel Montero (ADP 160) and Matt Wieters (ADP 169.6) have as much, if not more power than Posey, and their batting averages, runs and RBI won’t be that much worse. Posey’s advantage in those categories certainly isn’t worth the large gap in ADP.

First Base

Billy Butler (ESPN ADP 93.1) – I can see your thought process now. You missed out on all the top first baseman and don’t trust the health of Justin Morneau and Kendry (actually he changed his name back to Kendrys) Morales so you draft Butler hoping that he will develop power. Well don’t hold your breath. His GB% of 47.7 is still too high to expect much more than 20 home runs and it’s not like the RBI or runs will be plentiful in Kansas City. If you waited that long to draft a first baseman, you might as well wait a little longer and draft guys who are similar to Butler like Gaby Sanchez (ADP 171.4) or even James Loney (ADP 219.5). If you want more power out of the position look no further than Ike Davis (ADP 209.6).

Second Base

Dan Uggla (ESPN ADP 36.6) – I really like Uggla’s power potential in Atlanta but his .287 batting average is sure to come down. Take a look at his batting averages in 2007, 2008 and 2009: .245, 260 and .243. His career BABIP is .302 but his BABIP was .330 last year despite a low LD% (17.8) and a lack of speed. I can get the power and low batting average out of Aaron Hill at a fraction of Uggla’s price. There are also plenty of power/speed options such as Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips or Rickie Weeks a few rounds later which would allow me to take Justin Upton (ADP 36.2) or Jose Reyes (ADP 37.2) instead of Uggla.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre (ESPN ADP 43.1) – He still hasn’t made his spring debut thanks to an injured calf. Injuries aside, we’ve learned before never to pay for a Beltre contract year (Seattle anyone?). His .321 batting average last year was almost 50 points higher than his career average of .275. Although his home run and RBI totals should be similar in Texas, provided he’s healthy, a stat line something like .280, 25 home runs and 100 RBI seems a lot like Casey McGehee (ADP 90.1) to me. I’d rather bypass Beltre in round five and wait for McGehee, a probable rebound from Pablo Sandoval or the power potential of Pedro Alvarez and Mark Reynolds.

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins (ESPN ADP 63.7) – Rollins has been in decline for some time now. His batting average has been .250 or under for two straight years and he’s only reached 20 home runs once in the last three years. Although shortstop is shallow, Rollins is not one of the elite guys you should target in the early rounds. If you want a shortstop with power and speed look to Alexei Ramirez, Stephen Drew or Ian Desmond a few rounds later. Or if you want a shortstop with a better average and more speed than Rollins, look at Elvis Andrus (ADP 78.9).

Outfield

Nelson Cruz (ESPN ADP 28.0) – I love Cruz’s skill set—he has monster power and can steal bases—but I just can’t trust him to stay healthy over the course of the season. He has never played more than 128 games in his career and if he can’t top that number this year, his runs and RBI will continue to suffer. The early rounds are all about minimizing risk and drafting Cruz in the third round is poor risk management. If I want a safer upside pick I’d much rather go with Justin Upton (ADP 36.2) or Andrew McCutchen (ADP 38.0).

Starting Pitcher

C.C. Sabathia (ESPN ADP 27.5) – The New York hype machine strikes again! Ok, Sabathia isn’t really overrated in real life but he is in fantasy. His strikeout rate has been in decline for three straight years and his walk rate has risen in each of the last three years. Yet Sabathia is still the sixth pitcher taken on average even though the numbers of all of the top 20 pitchers won’t be that different than his, and that includes Matt Cain and his 76.4 ADP. Yes Sabathia has a greater win potential on the Yankees, but that’s not enough of a reason for him to go four rounds ahead of someone like Jered Weaver.

Relief Pitcher

Brian Wilson (ESPN ADP 64.6) – If the Giants had not won the World Series and Wilson didn’t become the baseball interview version of Charlie Sheen, something tells me he would not be going as early in drafts. Drafting a relief pitcher this early is crazy to me but if you’re the type of person who wants an elite closer, take Mariano Rivera (ADP 77.7) or Joakim Soria (86.1) instead. Saves are finicky and impossible to predict so why not take two guys later on that will have a better ERA and WHIP than Wilson? If you want someone with as much strikeout potential then take Heath Bell 14 picks later as he is essentially the same player as Wilson. Or how about Carlos Marmol (ADP 95.5) who had the same WHIP as Wilson and had 45 more strikeouts?

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San Francisco Giants: 2011 Fantasy Team Preview

By on March 10, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Despite winning it all in 2010, there aren’t many options for fantasy owners on this roster. Despite their pitching rotation being one of the best in baseball, all I see is a collection of offensive options that are, well, offensive.

Sure, the Giants were able to ride Cody Ross to a World Series championship, but I don’t think many fantasy owners will be spending to get him on their teams in 2011. Fluke season anyone?

This is the last of the team previews. We hope you enjoyed them!

Guys I’m Targeting

Aubrey Huff, 1B/OF – Much like Paul Konerko, Huff always sneaks up on people during the season rather than before. This is what makes him a good value come draft day. At 118, he’s being taken 25 picks after Billy Butler, but he will return similar numbers. Sure Huff will hit .275 rather than .300 and he will probably cross the plate fewer times, but he should bring more home runs and RBI at a power position. It is reasonable to expect a repeat of his 2010 season, minus the 100 runs scored.

Andres Torres, OF - I dare you to name me another 20/20 candidate going in the 20th round in drafts. OK, so he probably won’t get to 20 home runs, but at a shallow position, Torres provides you with very good production in two categories (R, SB) with some power. And if he turns out to be a one-year wonder you only wasted a 20th round pick. This is what we call a win-win.

Matt Cain, SP – Guys like Cain are the reason you are waiting on starting pitching this year. Why spend a third-round pick on C.C. Sabathia when you can get Cain—who will probably post the same numbers—in the eighth round? Cain has improved his walk rate from 3.76 in 2008 to 2.46 last year, which is a big reason why his WHIP has been steadily getting better.

Guys I’m Drafting…If They Fall Far Enough

Buster Posey, C/1B – After a spectacular rookie season, I’m afraid that people are overrating Posey. He is going in the fifth round, which isn’t crazy, but my view on catchers is simple: If it isn’t Joe Mauer, I’m waiting.  And stop with the Mauer comparisons, please. Nary does one .300 season make you someone who will compete for the batting title every year.

For the same reasons as Butler, Posey shouldn’t be your starting first baseman. Catchers like Geovany Soto, Miguel Montero, Matt Wieters and Mike Napoli are going 8-10 rounds later and they are not 8-10 rounds worse in talent. You could also wait until the end of the draft and pick up someone like J.P. Arencibia or John Jaso. You are much better off drafting an outfielder or middle infielder in the fifth round and waiting on catcher. Go where the value is.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B - I’m not going to sit here (yes, I sit when I blog) and tell you why Sandoval’s 2009 and 2010 seasons were like night and day. He is a streaky hitter who needs to improve his plate discipline if he wants any chance at some consistency. That being said, he is a perennial threat to hit over .300 and should bat in the middle of the Giants’ order. That also being said, he could remain in Bruce Bochy’s doghouse and just plain suck again. He’s your classic boom-or-bust guy but I’m taking the chance if he falls past the 14th round. After all, he qualifies at a weak position and has a killer nickname.

Tim Lincecum, SP - I’ll keep this one short: I’m not letting his postseason dominance wipe out what was a disappointing 2010 season by Lincecum’s standards. Pitching is deep this year so there’s no reason to draft one in the first five rounds.

Jonathan Sanchez, SP - Sanchez was one of the game’s best pitchers in the second half last year. He posted a 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings. While those numbers should put him clearly in the top-25 among starters, Sanchez still has trouble with his control (4.7 BB/9), which means he has to be nearly unhittable to post a respectable WHIP. He has great strikeout potential, but the lack of control is enough for me to be cautious when drafting him in the 13th round.

Brian Wilson, RP - He has the beard and the “I wanna rage, right now” quote. I get it. He’s a likable guy. But all closers must be treated equally. I’ve seen him go as high as the first closer taken, which probably means he’s not going to be on my team this year unless he falls to the 14th round. The only way that is happening is if I clone myself nine times and start a 10-team league.

Guys I’m Avoiding

Everyone else on offense - Seriously, it’s very difficult to find another decent option on the Giants roster. Ross and Pat Burrell are replacement level at best, Freddy Sanchez is an empty batting average and Miguel Tejada might be 45-years old. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

Barry Zito, SP – The good news: No one is drafting Zito in standard leagues. The bad news: It’s because he’s a very mediocre pitcher.

Guys You Should Keep an Eye On

Madison Bumgarner, SP - Bumgarner’s successful postseason (2.18 ERA/1.11 WHIP) will boost his value on draft day and he is currently going in the 18th round, but ahead of guys like C.J. Wilson and Jaime Garcia. I would still rather have those two over Bumgarner, but the 21-year-old has shown great control (2.11 BB/9) and a tendency to induce grounders (45.1%). All positive signs.

Brandon Belt, 1B - Belt rose through three levels in the minors last year posting a .352/.455/.620 line. He also added 23 home runs, 112 RBI and 22 stolen bases over a 136-game span. Now, Belt did most of that in Single-A, but we still like the potential here. Unfortunately, Huff stands in his way for 2011, but keep an eye on the situation as the Giants could look to try Belt out in right field if Burrell falters.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball 1B Rankings

By on January 23, 2011 | Comments { 4 }

Our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings are now posted and we just took at look at the tiers in our 2011 catcher rankings, which means today we look at first base. This position seems to get deeper every season, so even if you miss out on our of the top tier guys, there’s nothing wrong with any of the rest…until you get to the third tier, that is. At that point you’re better off stocking up on starting pitching and hoping Aubrey Huff has another year of magic. To the tiers!

Tier 1

Albert Pujols (STL), Miguel Cabrera (DET), Joey Votto (CIN)

The best of the best. I am not a fan of drafting first basemen in the first round because of the aforementioned depth, but even I have no issue drafting one of these guys. Pujols and Votto contribute in all five categories, usually stealing upwards of 10 bases, and even though Cabrera is as much a thief as Gandhi was, he’s still enough of a monster in every other category to warrant his placement here. Nothing more need be said of these three.

Tier 2

Adrian Gonzalez (BOS), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Prince Fielder (MIL), Ryan Howard (PHI), Kevin Youkilis (BOS)

I’ll probably take a lot of heat for leaving Gonzalez out of the top tier, but it’s totally justified. He doesn’t steal bases. He doesn’t hit for an elite average. He just hits homers and drives in runs. That’s still awesome and good enough for fourth best at the game’s deepest position, but it does not warrant tier one status and certainly not a first round draft pick. … Teixeira is better than his .259 average last year suggests. … Fielder is still a 40-homer threat that won’t kill your batting average. … Howard is the closest thing to a 40/140 guarantee even though he didn’t do it last season (age is getting to be a concern). … Youkilis has no real weaknesses in his game and is as well-rounded as they come.

Tier 3

Kendry Morales (LAA), Justin Morneau (MIN), Adam Dunn (CHW), Victor Martinez (DET), Paul Konerko (CHW), Buster Posey (SF), Billy Butler (KC), Pablo Sandoval (SF)

Well, the AL Central certainly is well-represented in this tier. I’m about as big of a Morales fan as you’ll find, and I almost put him at the tail end of tier two, but he still has to prove he can replicate 2009. … Morneau has great per-game numbers, but health is always a concern. … Dunn is a sure-fire 40-homer guy with his share of weaknesses. … Martinez and Posey are better served as your starting catcher but are solid first basemen. .. Konerko had an unexpectedly great 2010 but I have my concerns (prior seasons were nothing special). … Butler‘s high average and low power output are more befitting of a middle infielder. … Sandoval has just enough potential to keep me hoping there’s another .300 season with some serious power ahead.

Tier 4

Carlos Pena (CHC), Derrek Lee (BAL), Aubrey Huff (SF), Carlos Lee (HOU), Lance Berkman (STL), Michael Cuddyer (MIN), Gaby Sanchez (FLA), Adam LaRoche (ATL), Ike Davis (NYM)

The top half of this tier – Pena, Lee, Huff, the other Lee and Berkman – would have been tier two/tier three if it was 2006. It’s not. … Cuddyer and LaRoche are WYSIWYG (that’s “what you see is what you get” in case you’re wondering) as in .270s hitters with good-not-great everything else. … Sanchez and Davis have some upside, but there’s too much depth at the position to warrant gambling on them as your everyday starter. Still, bench spots or rotating utility roles are good places for these two right now. And again, this takes us through 25 guys as the last five really aren’t worth mentioning.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings

By on January 22, 2011 | Comments { 7 }

We just released our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings earlier this week, and now it’s time to take a position-by-position look at just how everything played out. It’s probably a good idea you check out our top 30 catchers in fantasy baseball if you haven’t seen it yet. It’s pretty awesome.

Tier 1

Joe Mauer (MIN), Victor Martinez (DET), Buster Posey (SF), Brian McCann (ATL), Carlos Santana (CLE)

Mauer, Martinez and McCann have dominated the top tier for years, and now they’re joined by a couple up-and-coming youngsters. With the three vets, you know what you’re going to get. Mauer is a .300-plus hitter with 15-homer power, Martinez hits .300 with around 100 RBI and McCann hits in the .270s or so with 20-plus homers and 85-plus RBI. … Posey showed the world how great he can be, but I’m a bit skeptical of his strikeout rate. At 13.5 percent, it was the lowest rate he’s ever had, minor leagues included. … Because of injury, Santana is the greatest unknown of the group, but his potential is off the charts. He strikes out a decent amount (around 20% of the time) but he’s already a threat for 25 homers. He even swipes a few bases here and there, however, the most impressive thing about Santana is his plate discipline. In just 192 PA last season he walked 37 times to 29 strikeouts. That’s a walk every fifth at-bat!

Tier 2

Jorge Posada (NYY), Geovany Soto (CHC), Miguel Montero (ARI), Matt Wieters (BAL), Mike Napoli (TOR), Kurt Suzuki (OAK), Russell Martin (NYY), John Buck (FLA)

This tier is essentially everybody else who can be expected to be a full-time catcher and get at least 400-450 AB. They’re clearly not in the class of the first tier (although Posada, Soto and Wieters have the best chance at jumping up),  and most of these guys are fairly interchangeable. Posada is the full-time DH in New York, Soto rebounded nicely last season, Wieters still has potential and actually hit the 10th longest homer in the league last season. … Napoli is now in Toronto, Martin is now in New York and Buck was his ever-consistent self.

Tier 3

Ryan Doumit (PIT), Miguel Olivo (SEA), Carlos Ruiz (PHI), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), A.J. Pierzynski (CHW), Chris Iannetta (COL), Yadier Molina (STL), Nick Hundley (SD), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (BOS), John Jaso (TB), Yorvit Torrealba (TEX), Chris Snyder (PIT)

The guys in this tier are interchangeable, too, in the sense that it doesn’t matter which one you have. You’re screwed anyway. Everybody in this tier either splits time or puts up stats that make you think they were splitting time. Doumit and Ruiz are really the only ones that could be expected to enter the tier of serviceable guys above them. We ranked more catchers in our top 30 rankings (since this only takes us through 25), but do you really want to hear about Jason Castro and Francisco Cervelli? Oh, one last note. When we did the rankings it was assumed that Arencibia would be Toronto’s primary catcher. Now with Napoli in the mix that’s no longer likely. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

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