Entering 2011 debates raged like a mosh pit at a Miley Cyrus concert over how good Clay Buchholz really was. His 2.33 ERA in 2010 painted the portrait of a young perennial Cy Young candidate, a potential staff ace in-the-making who tossed a no-no back in his second career start, but his poor strikeout numbers, average control and 3.61 FIP made him more John Lackey than Roy Halladay. Despite April struggles, Buchholz really turned it on in May and June before a puzzling back injury cost him the entire second half of last season. Can he follow up his short-lived follow up or was 2010 really just the fluke we all sort of fear it might have been? Right now it’s tough to say, but looking at the numbers below I see a pitcher who’s strikeout rate and walk rate are almost unchanged from year to year, and that screams “stagnant” to me. He could succeed like other moderate strikeout pitchers but he lacks control and pitches in the AL East. That’s a lethal combination. For what it’s worth, Derek Lowe had almost identical peripherals to Buchholz last season — 6.59 K/9, 3.37 BB/9, 59.0 GB%, 10.2% HR/FB — and finished with a 5.02 ERA. You’ve been warned.

Best case scenario: Tim Hudson (ATL)
Similar players: Jaime Garcia (STL), Jeff Niemann (TB), Johnny Cueto (CIN)
Worst case scenario: Derek Lowe (CLE)

Strengths

Lineup, nasty stuff, balanced splits. I’ve watched Buchholz pitch enough to know that on any given day he can look like the most dominant pitcher in the league. The problem is he still has days where he can’t command his pitches and he gets into trouble. Boston will score runs for him so even if his ERA/WHIP are only average he could still win 15 games. Buchholz fares slightly better against right-handed batters but his strikeout rates, walk rates and opponent’s averages versus righties and lefties are very similar.

Weaknesses

Control, strikeouts. If Buchholz wants to have a respectable WHIP (something in the 1.20s) he’s going to have to earn it through a very low opponent’s average, which will likely require another low BABIP. Of course he’s young enough and talented enough that the walks and strikeouts could both improve but that would be a little out of nowhere.

ADP Report (200.5)

I’m a little surprised Buchholz is going so late, but that’s almost certainly due to the time he missed last season. If I had to guess I’d say that the later your fantasy draft is in spring training, the higher Buchholz will probably go so expect this ADP to be on the rise (that means going down, right?). If he lasts until this late he’s a classic high-upside guy. We saw Tim Hudson rank in the 70s overall in each of the last two seasons despite mediocre strikeout totals, and Buchholz could do the same.