Tag Archives | Boston Red Sox

Player Profile #84: Josh Beckett | SP | BOS

It took buckets of fried chicken and beer to slow down Josh Beckett last year (5.84 ERA in Sept.), but that didn’t stop him from having a nice comeback from his disastrous 2010 campaign. Beckett will never shake his injury woes, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a reliable fantasy pitcher. He’s reached the 190-inning mark in two of his last three seasons and if you look at his underlying stats he’s been fairly consistent, but you wouldn’t know that by looking at his ERA. His low BABIP limited his strikeout potential last season despite him putting up his best SwStr% (10.5%) since 2004 so owners who invest should expect an uptick in his 22.8 K%.

Best case scenario: David Price (TB)
Similar players: C.J. Wilson (LAA), James Shields (TB), Matt Cain (SF)
Worst case scenario: Max Scherzer (DET)

Strengths

Strikeouts, lineup, increased effectiveness of cutter. The stacked Red Sox lineup will give Beckett plenty of run support and shots at winning games. The one change between Beckett in 2010 and 2011 is his increased effectiveness of his cutter. In 2010 he threw it 16.2 percent of the time but it was valued at -0.28 runs. Last season he increased the use of his cutter to 20.1 percent of the time with a value of 0.95.

Weaknesses

Injuries. It seems like Beckett lands on the DL at least once a season and whether it’s because he doesn’t “tough it out” or is just fragile is not worth speculating about. Just know that when you draft him he will be missing from your lineup for at least a 15-day period.

ADP Report (92.7)

Given that Beckett could put up a top-10 season at a moment’s notice, his ADP is very fair. I liked his increase in swinging strikes and think he is due for a nice boost in the strikeout category in 2012. We at Baseball Professor had Beckett ranked in the top 35 going into last season when almost every website had him pegged as a borderline top-50 starter. Score one for the Profs and don’t make that mistake again.

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Player Profile #85: David Ortiz | DH | BOS

By the end of 2010, most of Boston was calling for his head, but, in 2011, David Ortiz answered back with one of his best seasons in recent memory. The success was thanks, in large part, to a career-best 13.7 K% as he had been averaging 22.6 K% his previous two seasons. The reduced strikeouts really helped his batting average, which reached the .300 mark for the first time since 2007. The bad news is that Ortiz’s plate discipline stats all of a sudden spiked in his 14th season. He posted career worsts in O-Swing% (27.9%) and F-Strike% (56.9%), while posting a career best SwStrk% (7.0%). Color me pessimisstic, but when a 35-year-old puts up career numbers in a bunch of underlying stats, something tells me he’s set up for an underwhelming follow-up season.

Best case scenario: Another 2011 season
Similar players: Carlos Santana (CLE), Paul Konerko (CHW), Michael Morse (WAS)
Worst case scenario: Carlos Pena (TB)

Strengths

Power, lineup. The days of a .300+ ISO are over, but he has still averaged a .243 ISO over the last four years. Hitting in the loaded Red Sox lineup also gives him plenty of RBI opportunities.

Weaknesses

Position eligibility, batting average, age. It’s unfortunate that Ortiz doesn’t qualify at first base anymore, but he hasn’t since 2006 so fantasy owners should be used to that by now. I listed batting average here because while he did hit .306 in 2011, I don’t see how he sustains it given all of the fluky underlying stats.

ADP Report (106.9)

We might be a little high on Ortiz given that he doesn’t have any position eligibility, but because power hitters are so hard to find these days (and he’s ranked 70th and 36th in the last two seasons), he gets a boost. It’s always concerning when a player’s contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone jumps 20.6 percentage points in two seasons and he sees a career-high of first strikes, yet his strikeout percentage is a career-best and his xBA last year was .306. If his ADP is true to how the public views him, he’s worth the pick, but anything much earlier than our ranking leaves you taking on more risk than reward.

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Player Profile #183: Clay Buchholz | SP | BOS

Entering 2011 debates raged like a mosh pit at a Miley Cyrus concert over how good Clay Buchholz really was. His 2.33 ERA in 2010 painted the portrait of a young perennial Cy Young candidate, a potential staff ace in-the-making who tossed a no-no back in his second career start, but his poor strikeout numbers, average control and 3.61 FIP made him more John Lackey than Roy Halladay. Despite April struggles, Buchholz really turned it on in May and June before a puzzling back injury cost him the entire second half of last season. Can he follow up his short-lived follow up or was 2010 really just the fluke we all sort of fear it might have been? Right now it’s tough to say, but looking at the numbers below I see a pitcher who’s strikeout rate and walk rate are almost unchanged from year to year, and that screams “stagnant” to me. He could succeed like other moderate strikeout pitchers but he lacks control and pitches in the AL East. That’s a lethal combination. For what it’s worth, Derek Lowe had almost identical peripherals to Buchholz last season — 6.59 K/9, 3.37 BB/9, 59.0 GB%, 10.2% HR/FB — and finished with a 5.02 ERA. You’ve been warned.

Best case scenario: Tim Hudson (ATL)
Similar players: Jaime Garcia (STL), Jeff Niemann (TB), Johnny Cueto (CIN)
Worst case scenario: Derek Lowe (CLE)

Strengths

Lineup, nasty stuff, balanced splits. I’ve watched Buchholz pitch enough to know that on any given day he can look like the most dominant pitcher in the league. The problem is he still has days where he can’t command his pitches and he gets into trouble. Boston will score runs for him so even if his ERA/WHIP are only average he could still win 15 games. Buchholz fares slightly better against right-handed batters but his strikeout rates, walk rates and opponent’s averages versus righties and lefties are very similar.

Weaknesses

Control, strikeouts. If Buchholz wants to have a respectable WHIP (something in the 1.20s) he’s going to have to earn it through a very low opponent’s average, which will likely require another low BABIP. Of course he’s young enough and talented enough that the walks and strikeouts could both improve but that would be a little out of nowhere.

ADP Report (200.5)

I’m a little surprised Buchholz is going so late, but that’s almost certainly due to the time he missed last season. If I had to guess I’d say that the later your fantasy draft is in spring training, the higher Buchholz will probably go so expect this ADP to be on the rise (that means going down, right?). If he lasts until this late he’s a classic high-upside guy. We saw Tim Hudson rank in the 70s overall in each of the last two seasons despite mediocre strikeout totals, and Buchholz could do the same.

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Player Profile #192: Daniel Bard | SP/RP | BOS

So it looks like Bard is trying to become a starter, but do we have any idea of how he will do? The short answer is no, but we recently have seen players like Alexi Ogando and C.J. Wilson make the switch successfully. From a fantasy perspective, I was excited to see what Bard could do as a closer, but he has plenty of potential as a starter as well. He already has a nasty fastball and slider, but the changeup will need to be developed if he’s going to have success against a lineup the second and third time through.

Best case scenario: Alexi Ogando (TEX)
Similar players: Chris Sale (CHW), Neftali Feliz (TEX), Bud Norris (HOU)
Worst case scenario: Gets lost in role between reliever and starter

Strengths

Strikeouts. Bard has shown the ability to strike out over one batter per inning (career 9.73 K/9) and that should carry over with him as a closer or starter.

Weaknesses

Role uncertainty. You have to be prepared for anything with Bard. He could end the year as a top 35 starter, top 10 closer and anywhere in between.

ADP Report (216.0)

Bard’s ADP can’t be analyzed fairly at this point because of all the uncertainty surrounding his situation. He’s shown signs of improvement as he has reduced his walk rate for two straight years (4.01 BB/9 to 2.96 BB/9) and he’s also hard to hit (career .185 OBA). You have to know going in that his situation could change, but he could be well worth your investment because he is talented.

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