Tag Archives | Ben Zobrist

2011 Fantasy Baseball OF Rankings

By on January 27, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

So far we’ve taken care of the 2011 catcher rankings, first base rankings, second base rankings, third base rankings and shortstop rankings. Whew! It’s a lot to take in, but you’ll feel like a better person afterwards. Like they say, you can never over prepare for a draft. Let’s get to the outfielder tiers.

Tier 1

Carl Crawford (BOS), Ryan Braun (MIL), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Matt Holliday (STL), Josh Hamilton (TEX), Matt Kemp (LAD)

Not a lot wrong with this group as Crawford and Braun are sure-fire first rounders. … Gonzalez probably won’t hit .336 again, but his power and speed (34 HR/26 SB) are here to stay. … Holliday will get you Braun’s stats across the board, but 10-15 picks later. … The tier ends with a couple of questions marks in Hamilton‘s health and Kemp‘s work ethic. Even with Kemp having a “down” year, he still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.

Tier 2

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Justin Upton (ARI), Jason Heyward (ATL), Jayson Werth (WAS), Alex Rios (CHW), Jose Bautista (TOR), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Hunter Pence (HOU), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Andre Ethier (LAD), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS),  Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

You can bank on a .300 AVG, 20 HR and 20 SB from Choo, and if the Indians ever surround him with good hitters he will eclipse 180+ R/RBI. … In his third season, Upton regressed a bit towards his rookie form, but he is still only 23 years old so I wouldn’t panic yet. … Heyward is quickly becoming one of the most beloved young hitters over the last decade because of his great plate discipline (14.6 BB%). … It will be interesting to see what Werth does without the Phillies’ offense surrounding him. … After a disappointing 2009 season, Rios came back and finally eclipsed the 20/20 mark everyone was waiting for. …  You can read my take on Jose Bautista‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value. … Ellsbury should be an elite contributor in runs and steals if he bats first for the Red Sox, and he’s a good candidate to hit near .300. … No need to reiterate how I feel about Ichiro‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value.

Tier 3

Mike Stanton (FLA), Jay Bruce (CIN), Shane Victorino (PHI), Chris Young (ARI), Colby Rasmus (STL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), Ben Zobrist (TB), Corey Hart (MIL), Torii Hunter (LAA), Curtis Granderson (NYY), Delmon Young (MIN), B.J. Upton (TB), Nick Markakis (BAL), Bobby Abreu (LAA), Jason Bay (NYM), Angel Pagan (NYM), Adam Jones (BAL)

Stanton‘s power is out-of-this-world and if he can cut down on the Ks (34.3%) and raise that AVG (.259) he can be a top-10 option by year’s end. … It was nice to see Bruce stay healthy for an entire season. Don’t be surprised if he reaches 30 home runs this year. … The Flyin’ Hawaiian traded his batting average for a little extra power last year. Here’s to hoping he realized that it was a mistake. … Look for Stubbs to be a great value in the middle rounds as his 22 HR and 30 SB aren’t easy to find elsewhere. … Hart had a career-year in 2010 and while he didn’t contribute much with his seven steals, I’ll take the 31 HR and 192 R/RBI. … If you read our study on the importance of lineup slots it should be no surprise that Granderson had a down year batting at the bottom of the Yankees’ order. … Bryan Curley gave his thoughts earlier on why Bay is a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

Tier 4

Juan Pierre (CHW), Vernon Wells (LAA), Grady Sizemore (CLE), Denard Span (MIN), Carlos Lee (HOU), Nick Swisher (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHW), Michael Bourn (HOU), Brett Gardner (NYY), Lance Berkman (STL), Jason Kubel (MIN)

Pierre contributes in steals (68) and runs (96), but that’s about it. … Sizemore can still be a useful fantasy contributor so don’t completely disregard him. He is only two years removed from a 30/30 season and has been plagued by injuries the last two seasons. … I expect Span to raise his batting average back to .290-.300, but he brings no power to the table. … Swisher enjoyed himself a fine season in 2010 and while the power (29 HR and 180 R/RBI) is legit the average (.288) might be harder to replicate. Then again, he did change his approach last season.

Tier 5

Austin Jackson (DET), Raul Ibanez (PHI), Magglio Ordonez (DET), Dexter Fowler (COL), Rajai Davis (TOR), Travis Snider (TOR), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Andres Torres (SF), Julio Borbon (TEX), Manny Ramirez (TB), Jose Tabata (PIT), Marlon Byrd (CHC), Chris Coghlan (FLA), J.D.Drew (BOS)

Jackson had a ridiculous .396 BABIP and still only managed a .293 batting average. Not a good sign. … The term post-hype sleeper applies here with Snider as he should get the starting right field job. Last year he hit 14 home runs in just 319 at-bats. … In 2010, Borbon stole four fewer bases in 289 more at-bats. He’s going to have to step up the running if he is going to have any fantasy value. … We have Ramirez‘s projection covered in our 2011 Tampa Bay Rays preview. … Tabata is only 22-years old and is quickly becoming one of Pittsburgh’s many young, bright stars.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball 2B Rankings

By on January 24, 2011 | Comments { 6 }

Another day, another ranking. Except this time it’s second base. We already wrote out our 2011 catcher rankings and 2011 first base rankings so those are definitely worth checking out, and if you want to see the rest of our 2011 fantasy baseball projections you can do that, too. Tons of stuff. You’ll need to know it.

Tier 1

Robinson Cano (NYY), Chase Utley (PHI), Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

Cano has vaulted to the top of just about every second base ranking on the web due to a breakout 2010 season right when Utley started to seem mortal. Cano’s last two seasons were nearly identical, and he hasn’t missed more than three games in any of the last four years. The only downside is his almost non-existent stolen base output, but a .320 average, near 30 homers and 200 R/RBIs kind of make you forget about that. … Yeah, Utley is 32 but I’m inclined to believe he’s still an elite option. His batting average has dropped each year since 2007, but he’s a 30/100 threat nonetheless and should steal 10-20 bases. … Pedroia was on pace for his typical 115-run, 20-steal season again last year before a freak foot injury derailed his season (my sources tell me Rex Ryan was behind it). Best of all, he had 12 homers in his 75 games and looked set to finally crack that 20-homer mark we’ve been waiting for.

Tier 1.5

Ian Kinsler (TEX)

I rewrote this post twice before, once with Kinsler in tier one and once with him in tier two. Neither seemed right to me, so I decided to give Kinsler his own tier. The guy can’t stay healthy, but he’s the closest thing to a 20/20 lock at second base and he even has 30/30 potential (did that in 2009). Injuries have always been a concern, and his batting average fluctuates rather wildly, but I have no problem starting Kinsler at second base. When he plays, he easily belongs in tier one. When he doesn’t, I don’t mind starting someone else like Neil Walker or Jose Lopez in the interim.

Tier 2

Dan Uggla (ATL), Rickie Weeks (MIL), Ben Zobrist (TB), Brandon Phillips (CIN), Martin Prado (ATL), Aaron Hill (TOR)

If Uggla really was a .280 hitter, he might be a member of tier one. He’d certainly be a member of tier 1.5. Unfortunately, he’s not a .280 hitter. His .330 BABIP last season was easily higher than his current career mark of .302, and his LD% last season wasn’t that much better than his career LD%. Summary: Uggla’s .280 average was lucky. It’s back to the .260s for him. Four straight 30-plus homer seasons and 90-100 runs and RBI are very nice, but negative contributions in two of the five standard fantasy categories (SB and AVG) keep you out of the top tier. … Weeks‘ 11 steals were actually the fewest of his career (if you don’t count his injury-shortened 2009 season), but no one really cared since he was busy hitting 29 homers and scoring 112 runs. The power is semi-legit; I think something in the 20-25 range is more likely in 2011, but I do expect more steals. … I’m still a huge fan of Zobrist and I’m willing to overlook everything he did last year. … Phillips‘ RBI total fell way down to 59, but he’s still a solid bet for a 20/20 season but, sadly, a .265-.275 batting average. … All of Prado‘s numbers last year (.307 AVG, 100 R, 15 HR, 66 RBI and 5 SB) were in line with his 2009 per-game averages, so expect the joy ride to continue. … We already covered our 2011 Aaron Hill fantasy projection, but if I had to sum up my feelings towards him in four words or less I’d say “Buy.” Ha. Only needed one word.

Tier 3

Gordon Beckham (CHW), Brian Roberts (BAL), Howie Kendrick (LAA), Chone Figgins (SEA), Kelly Johnson (ARI), Neil Walker (PIT), Jose Lopez (COL), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (MIN), Danny Espinosa (WAS)

Beckham actually rebounded well in the second half last season. Maybe he’s just one of those “one year too early” guys. If so, you’ll want to own him this year. … Roberts is a major health risk and is getting up there in age. Don’t count on more than 20 or so steals (even if he plays in 140 or more games), but that paves the way for increased power output. He’s always been a serious doubles guy. … Kendrick should get his average over .290 again, but perennial first-half struggles have been limiting his end-of-season stats. If he can put it together in April and May, buy on him. … Figgins is likely going to hit at the tail end of a pitiful lineup, but he could always steal 40-plus bases. … We already wrote our 2011 Kelly Johnson fantasy projection, so check that out if you want. Summary: Prognosis Negative. … Walker had a surprisingly solid rookie season (.296/.349/.462 with 12 HR, 57 R, 66 RBI and 2 SB in 110 games), and nothing suggests he can’t continue to improve over a full season. … Take a look at Lopez‘s career stats and tell me that doesn’t look pretty good in Colorado. … Nishioka is an unknown, but we do know he had a heck of a career in Japan. Should hit for a good average and steal a lot of bases. Then again, Kaz Matsui was supposed to be pretty good, too. … We didn’t rank Espinosa in our top 30, but right about now I’m wishing we had (check back for our updated rankings). Hey, better late than never. You can check out our 2011 Danny Espinosa fantasy projection instead.

Tier 4

Sean Rodriguez (TB), Omar Infante (FLA), Juan Uribe (LAD), Mike Aviles (KC), Reid Brignac (TB), Alberto Callaspo (LAA), Freddy Sanchez (SF), Ryan Theriot (STL), Jed Lowrie (BOS), Ryan Raburn (DET), Eric Young Jr. (COL)

Rodriguez had a great spring training last season, but he’s still nothing special. … Infante can hit for average, but that’s about it … Uribe seems to turn it on late in the season these days. … Aviles and Brignac are two of the guys from this tier you’ll want to target if only because they have the potential to be rosterable players for an entire season. … Sanchez gets you a little bit in every category, and Theriot gets you everything in only one category (SB). … Red Sox manager Terry Francona has said Marco Scutaro is his starting shortstop and Lowrie will be the backup everything. That means a lot of AB for a guy who posted nine homers and slugged .526 in just 55 games last year … Like Lowrie, Rayburn has the talent but doesn’t have a starting job. Still, he finds a way to get ABs. … Young is a 50-steal threat with enough playing time. Lopez’s presence in Colorado muddies the picture, though.

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The Importance of Lineup Slots

By on December 27, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

There are so many different ways to approach predicting a hitter’s future performance, but one is usually overlooked more than most – batting order position.

There’s a post written by Jack Moore at RotoHardball that covers the importance of lineup slots in a baseball player’s fantasy value. It shows the following chart, which tracked the average plate appearances per game at each lineup slot:

  1. 4.83
  2. 4.72
  3. 4.61
  4. 4.49
  5. 4.39
  6. 4.26
  7. 4.14
  8. 4.02
  9. 3.90

(Note: Stats are from Tom Tango’s “The Book” and are compiled from 1998-2002 in the American League only.)

While there might not be a huge difference from batting third to fifth, dropping from second to sixth, or leadoff to ninth is a dramatic change in plate appearances when stretched over a full 162-game season.

In Moore’s post, he explains the effect lineup slot had on Curtis Granderson, who after batting leadoff in Detroit for four years, spent most of his time in the seventh or eighth slot last season with the Yankees. A lot of experts predicted Granderson to follow his 30-homer season in Detroit with 35-40 home runs in the new Yankee Stadium, but the odds were against him from the start as he was facing far fewer opportunities. Over 150 games, the drop from first to eighth is a difference of 121 plate appearances and not coincidentally, Granderson’s home runs dropped from 30 to a “mere” 24.

Another example is Ian Kinsler, who in 2009 posted a career-best 30 home runs, 86 RBI and 31 steals despite hitting for a career-low .253 batting average and posting a career-worst .327 OBP. One reason for this is because he stayed relatively healthy, playing 143 games, but also he spent most of his time in the leadoff spot and amassed 640 plate appearances.

In 2010, Kinsler had a better year with his averages (.286 BA, .382 OBP), but his counting stats suffered as his 162-game pace of 14 home runs was less than half of his 144-game output just a year before. Kinsler split his time batting third, fifth and sixth in the lineup and his 162-game pace for 648 plate appearances was only four more than what he faced in 144 games as a leadoff hitter.

With so much player movement in the off-season let’s take a look at some situations you should keep your eye on.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, and Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox

Terry Francona has come out and said that he wants to get Crawford near the top of his order so there shouldn’t be too much worry here. Crawford projects as a second or third hitter in this Boston lineup, however, Ellsbury is a more interesting case. Francona admitted that his best lineup is with Ellsbury leading off, but he hinted that he may not start there right away. If Ellsbury starts the year batting ninth, make sure to temper your expectations as the drop from top to bottom is a difference of 140 plate appearances over 150 games.

John Buck, C, Florida Marlins

Fresh off signing a 3-year, $15 million contract, Buck wasn’t brought in to Florida to bat at the bottom of the order. Last year, he spent 85 games in the bottom third of the Blue Jays lineup, but the Marlins don’t quite boast the same potent offense that Toronto does. Look for Buck to bat a little higher and add more plate appearances in the process.

The Tampa Bay Rays

With the departure of Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena, you can expect plenty of new opportunity for new batters to thrive at the top of that lineup. Ben Zobrist could benefit from a more steady role in the number two hole with his ability to get on base. Would the Rays plug in rookie OF Desmond Jennings in the lead off role right from the start? Maybe perennial heart-breaker B.J. Upton will get another shot at it next year. Keep an eye on sleeper candidate Sean Rodriguez who showed flashes of brilliance in the month of June where he hit .295 with four homers, 17 RBI and six steals.

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Ben Zobrist 2011 Projection

By on December 18, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

In 2009, Ben Zobrist made a surprising jump into the upper echelon of fantasy infielders by compiling an impressive .297/.405/.543 line with 27 homers, 91 runs, 91 RBI and 17 steals. Those totals were good for fifth among all second basemen behind perennial stars Chase Utley, Brian Roberts, Robinson Cano and the equally surprising Aaron Hill. Fantasy owners jumped on the Z-Train by grabbing Zobrist with the 65th overall pick on average, and both Chris Campanelli and I thought this made him a bargain.

Apparently, we were wrong.

But they say a captain goes down with his ship, and despite Zobrist’s underwhelming and overall disappointing 2010 season, I’m sticking with him. Sure, Utley, Cano, Dan Uggla, Brandon Phillips and the usual cast of characters will be there once again, and 2010 had an unusual number of breakout or comeback players like Rickie Weeks, Martin Prado, and Kelly Johnson, but Zobrist is still my boy.

Which begs the question, why would I stick with him?

First, the steals were still there. Even if he somehow replicates his abysmal .238 average and manages another spot-on Pokey Reese impersonation (.699 OPS), you’ll still get 20-plus steals.

And power doesn’t just disappear like that. Zobrist had HR/FB rates of 17.4 percent in 2008 and 17.5 percent in 2009 over a combined 214 games and 699 at-bats. Last year his HR/FB rate plummeted to 6.0 percent. Maybe he isn’t the 27-homer monster we saw in 2009, but I have a hard time seeing Marco Scutaro out-muscle him again. I’m thinking 20-plus is a good estimate. Need more? David Wright had HR/FB rates of 16.1 and 16.8 percent in 2007 and 2008, respectively, before his famous 2009 power outage (10 HR, 6.9% HR/FB rate). He bounced back last season with 29 dingers and a 15.5 percent HR/FB rate.

But what about that .238 average? True, luck alone won’t drop a guy’s average almost 60 points, but much of Zobrist’s struggles were the result of unusual trends in his plate discipline. He made contact with more pitches outside the strike zone last season (72.6 O-Contact%) and swung at more pitches outside the strike zone (25.3 O-Swing%) which resulted in a lot of bad contact. Not surprisingly, his line drive rate fell to a slightly-below average 17.8 percent and his infield fly rate doubled to 10.8 percent. Clearly, pitchers have noticed Zobrist’s talents and have adjusted accordingly. They have begun pitching around him, which we see with his decreasing Zone% each season (the percent of pitches he sees in the strike zone).

Despite these alarming trends, they have all the makings of one-year anomalies. We won’t know exactly how the departures of Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena will affect the Tampa Bay lineup (although I’m willing to bet they won’t be beneficial), and that will change the way pitchers attack Zobrist. That’s why it’s especially worth mentioning that, in spite of the unusual approach Zobrist had at the plate last season, his walk rate was still good for seventh best among the 149 qualifying hitters and his strikeout rate was nearly identical to 2009.

There are many parallels between fantasy baseball and the stock market, and those who succeed at both are able to do it because they are able to accurately project the future and buy or sell accordingly. Zobrist’s stock is dropping in 2010. You should be buying.

(All stats courtesy of Zobrist’s player page at Fangraphs.)

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On Deck Circle – Hitter Top 75, Week 3

By on April 23, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Have you ever wondered how many games a team full of Albert Pujols’ would win in a season? Thanks to the people over at Baseball Reference you can do just that. Oh, and by the way, it’s 120 games.

I have discovered a new statistic while perusing the baseball reference site (it would take you a whole year to discover every statistic they had on their website) and it’s called offensive winning percentage. What they do is take a player, clone him nine times and assume average pitching and defense. That’s the team and the winning percentage is how a team like that would do winning games. It’s really just a fun and different way to evaluate pure offensive talent. Just two weeks into the season here is the top 10 in OWn%:

1. Manny Ramirez – .896
2. Brad Hawpe – .889
3. Vernon Wells – .886
4. Chase Utley – .880
5. Andre Ethier – .874
6. Nelson Cruz – .859
7. Casey McGehee – .858
8. Josh Willingham – .852
9. Ryan Braun – .852
10. Shin-Soo Choo – .843

Some interesting names are on that list, but remember it’s early on the season so you should not go trading for Brad Hawpe or Casey McGehee at all costs. I am just trying to spread the cheer and joy of the statistical world of baseball. So go on and explore the world of numbers, you will surprise yourself at how many things you might learn. It just goes to show how much fun you can have with numbers!

Surging

Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Don’t look now, but Rafael Furcal is batting .356 with 15 runs and seven steals. Furcal is a guy who stole 20 bases in his last two seasons and has not topped 30 steals since 2006. Now it looks like he is back to being aggressive on the base paths and he could score a lot of runs with Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier all batting behind him. Furcal can hit .300, top 100 runs and steal 30 bases this season, but he will have to stay healthy.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

You might recall Bryan Curley and I arguing between Andrew McCutchen and B.J. Upton in the preseason and it seems that both players are off to hot starts. McCutchen leads the league in steals (9) and is batting a respectable .273 this season. He only has one RBI so far which just shows you how bad the Pirates’ offense is, but he has scored 12 runs and should be good for 80-90 runs and could steal upwards of 40 bases. If he can show his power was no fluke from last season we could see a 20/40 guy as early as this season.

Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

The power is definitely for real as Colby Rasmus hit 29 home runs in 128 Double-A games in 2007. The big question is whether he can maintain a respectable .270 batting average as opposed to one in the .250 area. Currently he is hitting .273 and some encouraging signs are that his 18.2 BB% is easily the highest it’s ever been in his young career and his .280 BABIP is right in line with his career numbers. However, Rasmus is striking out 31.8 percent of the time, which is a number I expect to go down, but he also has hit line drives just 10 percent of the time. Fewer line drives means a tougher time sustaining a good batting average, and it’s possible that Rasmus’ .273 average is a little lucky thanks to his early boost in home runs.

Falling

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Ben Zobrist burst onto the scene last year when he hit 27 home runs and stole 17 bases in just 501 at-bats. A lot of fantasy baseball owners (including me) had their doubts that Zobrist could repeat in 2010 and so far he is helping make the argument for the doubters. His approach at the plate has suffered as he has walked just 6.5 percent of the time and struck out 25.8 percent of the time. In 2009, Zobrist posted a .405 OBP, which was 11th in the majors and while the four steals are nice, he will have to improve on his approach to please his owners.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians

I wrote a blog post about Grady Sizemore earlier this week highlighting why I would be worried to own him in fantasy this year. Given his performance over the past week (.091 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI) and his struggles against left-handed pitchers (1-for-21) he is just going to keep falling on my board until he turns it around. Chances are he will fix whatever is plaguing him right now, but visions of another 30/30 season are no longer a lock and probably more on the unrealistic side.

Nick Markakis,OF, Baltimore Orioles

It’s nice to see Nick Markakis walking again and his 15.7 BB% is even better than his 14.2 percentage in his breakout 2008 season. However, Markakis is also sporting a very unimpressive triple slash line of .259/.371/.379, which is awful considering he is not a player who will swipe more than 10 bases. Fantasy owners had dreams of Markakis posting 25 home runs and 15 steals, but it seems that 25 home runs might be a little optimistic and that makes Markakis a solid third or fourth outfielder in 10-team mixed leagues.

Player to Watch

Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets

Ike Davis is getting his shot in the big leagues and if he stays he could provide fantasy teams with some power off the waiver wire. In the minors last year, Davis hit 20 home runs and drove in 71 runs in just 114 games and he posted a .906 OPS. Davis has struggled a little so far in the majors, but he is immediately batting sixth in the Mets lineup, which could give him plenty of RBI opportunities.

On the Mend

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies

It was not good news for Jimmy Rollins and his fantasy owners when he went down with a calf injury. For a player who relies so much on his speed, it wouldn’t surprise me if he takes his time to come back which could mean a four-week absence. It’s too bad because Rollins was putting together a nice bounce-back year with a .391 batting average and two steals in seven games.

Down on the Farm

Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers

It’s the same old song and dance for Justin Smoak as he continues to rake in the minors, but he is denied the chance to play in the majors because of Chris Davis. Well, this might be Davis’ last chance to impress the Rangers because Smoak seems to be ready to take over and could contribute immediately when he gets the call. He won’t mash the ball, but his batting is nothing short of astonishing (16 BB, 6 K).

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How does my draft look?

By on March 30, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Since Opening Day is a week away (wow!) I thought this would be a good time to post one of the several emails we’ve received regarding post-draft advice/analysis. This one comes from Eric:

“Hey Bryan, just got finished drafting. Overall I like my team, I had to take Haren in the 2nd and Hamels in 3rd because SP went flying. I also reached on some rookies 8-11 rds (Heyward, Strasburg, Matusz) but those were like my late round picks anyway. But here is how my team ended up:

C- Wieters
1B- Gonzalez
2B- Zobrist
SS- A. Ramirez
3B- Longoria
OF- Kemp
OF- B.J. Upton
OF- Cuddyer
Util- C. Jones
Util- C. Gonzalez
BN- Heyward
BN- Adam LaRoche
BN- Smoak
BN- S. Castro

SPs-
Haren
Hamels
Garza
Oswalt
Dempster
Strasburg
Matusz

RPs-
Bell
Marmol
Soriano

I like it. I got thrown off early and had to take another direction, but that’s how this league is. Let me know what you think of my team.”

On the surface, I really like the balance of your offense. You have an above average or great starter at just about every position, and at the ones you don’t (mainly SS), you found guys that are good, calculated risks. Your OF demonstrates this balance perfectly with the all-around stud in Kemp, the speedster with power potential in Upton, and the big power bat in Cuddyer. Nice job finding bats for your bench with high upside. I can’t preach enough how wasteful it is to put someone like Miguel Tejada on your bench. At best, you can find someone like that on free agency.

Interestingly, your SP looks a lot like the guys I have on my team as I drafted Hamels, Dempster, Strasburg, and Matusz as well. Obviously I like those guys, although I’m hesitant to project too much from Dempster. However, he does represent a good, proven commodity at a good value spot in the draft.

If I did have any words of advice or areas of improvement though, it’s these:

  • Roy Oswalt looks like he might be heading toward another injury-plagued season, so if possible you should try to move him for someone like Kevin Slowey who is looking good this spring after coming back from surgery that shortened his 2009 season.
  • I also am a fan of the “don’t draft elite closers” strategy, and you pegged some good ones. The only downside to this method is that you must be diligent throughout the season to make sure you don’t drop under three closers. In fact, if possible, it might be good for you to target a fourth, perhaps someone like Chris Perez (CLE), Franklin Morales (temporary in COL), Jason Frasor (TOR), or Jon Rauch (MIN, although they’re doing that whole bullpen-by-committee thing).

Overall, nice work!

What does everyone else think? If you have an opinion, leave it in the comments section. I’m sure Eric would love all the advice he can get!

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Quick Hits: ADP Reports

By on March 24, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

With the season quickly approaching and fantasy baseball drafts in full force, it’s time we take a look at some average draft positions that I think are too high or too low for my liking.

  • I already wrote about why I think Geovany Soto (181.7) will bounce back in 2010 so you can imagine why I believe Soto is a great value in drafts. Just one year removed from a Rookie of the Year campaign, Soto can provide great offensive numbers in the 19th round of 10-team mixed leagues.
  • Another great value at catcher, Kurt Suzuki (224.1) provides the same numbers as Yadier Molina (182.1) but 40 picks later. He also throws some sneaky steals into the mix.
  • It’s not like Adrian Gonzalez (27.8) has punched his ticket out of San Diego just yet, and until I see him in another uniform he isn’t worth a third rounder. He’s going 14 picks ahead of Joey Votto, 20 picks ahead of Justin Morneau, and 33 picks ahead of Kendry Morales, all of whom could match Gonzalez’s production in 2010.
  • It seems like every year Paul Konerko (218) slips to the later rounds, but with three-year averages of .260/27/80 you would think he was getting drafted earlier than the 22nd round in 10-team mixed leagues.
  • So far, Brian Roberts (42.9) is the fifth second baseman off the board and trending up despite some recent struggles with his back. Still, I would rather have Brandon Phillips (44.5), Ben Zobrist (64.6) and Aaron Hill (73.2) unless all signs point to Roberts being 100 percent healthy going into the season.
  • Third base is very weak this year, but Troy Glaus (217.2) could provide some good production late in the draft. He will be starting at first base for the Atlanta Braves this year, which means he will have dual eligibility as well.
  • Yeah he hit just .223 last season, but Jay Bruce (105.8) has been a home run machine in his first two seasons. In 2008, he hit 21 home runs in just 418 at bats (19.9 AB/HR) and followed it up with an even better season in 2009 as he hit 22 home runs in just 345 at bats (15.7 AB/HR). Outside of Jason Heyward you won’t find better power potential in the 11th round.
  • There is a lot of speed in the outfield this year and it’s proven by the likes of Juan Pierre (136.5), Nyjer Morgan (137.4), Julio Borbon (138.7), and Rajai Davis (161.5). All four players are legit 50-steal candidates and can be had after the 13th round in 10-team mixed leagues. You might want to reconsider players like Jacoby Ellsbury (20.8) and even Michael Bourn (120.7).
  • It seems like everyone is forgetting about the utility players as Vladimir Guerrero (156.1), David Ortiz (168.3), and Hideki Matsui (173.7) are all going after the 15th round in 10-team mixed leagues. Guerrero is looking good in Spring Training and Ortiz will give you near-30 home run and 100 RBI production. Matsui, if healthy, can provide with very good power numbers considering he is being drafted in the 18th round and should maintain OF eligibility.
  • Much like Konerko, Ted Lilly (197.2) always goes underappreciated in drafts and this year is no different. Of course, there are some concerns with his health coming into the season, but he is recovering well from shoulder surgery and could be back by mid-to-late April. Lilly can provide you with a very good K/9, low whip and decent win totals, which is good value in the 20th round if you are willing to hold onto him while he rehabs in the minors.
  • Some undrafted pitchers to look out for: Justin Duchscherer (good when healthy), Kevin Correia (great home park and second half), Bud Norris (good strikeout potential), Ryan Rowland-Smith (great defense and home park and should be #3 starter on Mariners).
  • Obviously, Chris Perez (221.5) should be getting drafted earlier with news that Kerry Wood (195.5) could be out for two months. Also, Perez owners should feel confident that he will keep his job as long as he pitches well in Wood’s absence so he would be worth an 18th-20th round pick. Wood should be going undrafted in every draft out there and at best is a reserve pick in deeper leagues.
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