Tag Archives | Ben Zobrist

#3: Is Danny Espinosa’s HR/SB combo worth the hit in batting average?

By on February 1, 2012 | Comments { 3 }

Chris Young, B.J. Upton, Danny Espinosa. They all have one thing in common: terrible batting averages yet enticing home run/stolen base totals. (Maybe that’s two things in common?)

In fantasy leagues it’s tough to gauge the value of these players. Managers tend to fear their deficiencies in drafts, causing the players’ ADPs to fall below where they’ll likely end the season ranked. Take Upton and Young for example. Upton finished last year as the 41st-ranked player in fantasy, but this year his ADP is 68. Young ranked 99th last year but right now his ADP is 125.

Heck, even Ryan Roberts finished last season with 19 homers, 18 steals and an overall rank of 106, but this season his ADP is 197. Those homers and steals are completely repeatable and he has a starting job, but people are scared of taking on that .249 average. And what about Ben Zobrist? He batted just .269 last year but hit 20 homers, stole 19 bases and ranked 40th overall. Why is his ADP 83?

Espinosa seems like the outlier. Last season he hit 21 homers, stole 17 bases and batted .236 en route to a 147 ranking. This year his ADP is 150. So, while this question technically asks about Espinosa, he just serves as the poster boy for an entire class of undervalued players (though oddly enough he’s the only one being properly valued, go figure). The fact of the matter is regardless of what a player’s stats are, their end-of-season rank is a pure evaluation of how good they were that season to fantasy owners.

If I told you there was a player available at 83rd overall in your draft this spring who would finish the year ranked 40th, wouldn’t you take him? He could bat .269 with 20 homers and 19 steals or he could bat .269 with 39 homers and no steals. I’m still taking that player.

Note: In actuality, and assuming runs/RBI/average remains equals, 43 homers and zero steals is the fantasy equivalent of 20 homers and 19 steals since steals are worth more than homers per unit value. And in case you were curious zero homers and 35 steals is the equivalent at the other end of the spectrum. Of course, more homers tends to yield more runs/RBI since they directly impact one another, but I digress.

While the industry is busy undervaluing these players, you can take them and turn a profit. You can always find the other class undervalued guys who contribute very little in terms of homers and steals but provide a great average and are systematically disregarded as well. This season that class of player includes the following:

  • Michael Young (2011 rank: 44/2012 ADP: 71)
  • Ichiro Suzuki (78/105)
  • Billy Butler (92/123)
  • Derek Jeter (95/126)
  • Yadier Molina (140/181)
  • Todd Helton (152/197)
  • Jemile Weeks (163 in just 97 games/154)
  • Jon Jay (223/293)

There are two things I can guarantee almost every single fantasy league champion will have on their roster at the end of this season: superstars (read: early round picks that stayed healthy) and plenty of guys who outperformed their ADPs.

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#1: Is second base a secret hotbed for power?

By on November 2, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Question number one in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series read as such: “Second base seems to be a surprising hotbed for power. In standard Yahoo! leagues 12 second basemen had 18 or more home runs compared to only 11 third basemen. Will we be able to find that power again at second base next year?”

To properly answer this question, there are three smaller questions we must address:

  1. Is second base really a hotbed for power?
  2. How many guys with 18-plus home runs from 2011 are likely to repeat in 2012?
  3. What players might join 2011′s crop of 18-plus home run producers?

Each sub-question is fascinating in it’s own right, so I’m glad George had the foresight to include the larger question in our top 100 list.

Is second base really a hotbed for power?

To answer this I went back and looked at the power numbers from 2011 for each position. First, I calculated the average home run total of the top 15 players at each position since many roto leagues include as many as 15 teams and for smaller, 10-team leagues this includes all the starters and the first half of the available backups. Next, I found the median home run total of those top 15 players since some positions (third base) had skewed averages based on one or two incredible power performances (Jose Bautista). Last, since the question set the parameter of players with at least 18 home runs, I counted how many players at the position hit at least 18 home runs. The results are below.

*Outfield numbers were calculated using the top 45 home run hitters since there are three times as many outfielders compared to any other position, so “Avg of Top 15″ is really average of the top 45 and “No. with 18+ HR” was really the number of outfielders with 18-plus home runs divided by three. This keeps everything on the same scale.

Conclusion: Second base doesn’t stand out as a power-heavy position, but there was just as much power to be found there as at third base and outfield, two positions certainly more known for higher home run totals.

How many guys with 18-plus home runs in 2011 are likely to repeat in 2012?

There are three basic factors that combine to yield a player’s home run total:

  1. How many at-bats he gets
  2. How many of those at-bats result in fly balls
  3. How many of those fly balls result in home runs

To see how many second basemen in 2011′s “18 and Over Club” are likely to repeat, I looked at each of their relevant stats from 2011 as compared to the last three years (2009-2011).

The three guys shaded in gray atop the chart are the guys I consider locks for 18-plus home runs in 2012 (barring injury to Ian Kinsler). As for the rest, somehow nine guys all came within three home runs of our 18-home-run threshold, giving us very little room for error.

Interestingly enough, 10 of the 12 players here actually hit fewer fly balls in 2011 than they did on average from 2009 to 2011. This explains the small drop in home run production from second basemen from 2010 to 2011 as seven guys actually hit more than 21 home runs in 2010 versus just three in 2011. However, nine of the 12 saw an increased number of those fly balls leave the yard last season.

Dustin Pedroia hit more than 18 home runs for the first time last season, but it was actually his second straight year ahead of the pace since he managed 12 homers in just 75 games in 2010. Pedroia makes the cut.

Kelly Johnson is a real boom-or-bust power guy who’s status in this group might very well be dictated by where he signs. His two home ballparks last season, Arizona and Toronto, are very favorable home run parks for left-handed hitters with both posting park factors of 114 for home runs to lefties (according to statcorner.com). Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos says Johnson is currently “in the mix” for Toronto, so if he doesn’t sign there or with another team with a good ballpark, I’m less inclined to include him in this group.

Last season I was touting Danny Espinosa as a sleeper 20/20 threat and while the stolen bases weren’t quite there (17), the power was. He’s part of Washington’s future right now and I don’t see a good reason why he shouldn’t repeat his 2011 power production. Oh, and for what it’s worth, I projected Espinosa for 20 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Score!

Ben Zobrist hit 20 home runs last season, 27 home runs in 2009 and 12 home runs in 62 games in 2008. Like Kinsler, his 2010 season seems to defy reason, and I think he’s a very good bet to top 18 home runs again. In fact, outside of the top three that I consider locks, Zobrist is the guy I’m next most confident in.

Michael Cuddyer is a free agent and will be one of the most hotly sought after right-handed bats on the market. That means Minnesota is going to have to pay the man to continue to employ his services. Given their needs (right-handed bat) and Cuddyer’s role on the team, they just might do that. Target Field isn’t extremely home run friendly (park factor: 95), but they say the devil you know is better than the one you don’t. Right now I think he repeats, but we’ll know better in a few months.

Rickie Weeks would be that guy I was next most confident in if he didn’t still come with lingering health concerns, but at least the injury that robbed him of about 200-plus at-bats last season was a severely twisted ankle and not a recurring muscle injury. He’ll repeat, too.

It’s these last three guys that are really the most interesting. Ryan Roberts has never really displayed 18-plus home run power at any level before, but his ISO has always been respectable and sometimes it takes time for guys to turn those extra base hits into extra home runs. He managed 19 homers in just 482 at-bats despite hitting fewer fly balls last year, but he’s still a fairly extreme fly ball hitter in one of the game’s best home run parks. Arizona only slightly favors right-handed hitters for home runs (park factor: 102), and without a real threat at third base he should get around 500 at-bats next season. Can he maintain his elevated HR/FB rate? According to Hit Tracker Online, seven of Roberts’ 19 home runs had “just enough” (36.8%). The MLB average last season was 33.4 percent, so Roberts didn’t have an unusual number of lucky home runs. I tend to think he will repeat.

Howie Kendrick is the guy I’m saying “thanks for playing” to. He had two months where he combined to hit 12 home runs (April and August) and then managed just six in the other four months combined. His HR/FB rate last season was 46 percent higher than his rate from 2009 through 2011, and he has a hard time staying healthy and doesn’t hit fly balls. Too much went right for me to think this will happen again.

Brandon Phillips hasn’t hit fewer than 18 home runs in any of the last five years, but he’s hit exactly 18 in each of the last two. He’s aging, his HR/FB rate has declined every year since 2007, and I don’t think he reaches the mark again.

By my count that makes eight players I think will hit 18-plus once again plus two free agents (Johnson and Cuddyer) that the jury is still out on but I admittedly still like. Don’t count on Kendrick or Phillips repeating.

What players might join 2011′s crop of 18-plus home run producers?

Here are the names we need to seriously consider for this group: Chase Utley, Michael Young, Ryan Raburn, Neil Walker, Aaron Hill, Dustin Ackley, Jason Kipnis and Gordon Beckham.

Even though Utley has missed significant time over the last two years and hasn’t hit 18-plus home runs since the 31 he hit in 2009, I refuse to believe he’s completely done. I think he’s got one more good season left in him.

Young didn’t top four homers in any single month last year and actually hit just one in three of them. He hit 22 and 21 home runs in 2009 and 2010, respectively, but he’s getting up there in age and isn’t a fly ball hitter. Young will continue to drive in runs and hit for a high average, but I don’t think 18 home runs are in the cards.

Raburn was a huge preseason sleeper but didn’t really live up to the hype. He bounced in and out of Detroit’s lineup all season, but his .967 OPS in the second half last year showed the kind of hitter he can be. Raburn hits a lot of fly balls and I think the power is there if he’s given enough playing time. I’m going out on a limb and projecting him to hit our 18-homer benchmark.

Walker disappointed with just 12 home runs last season mainly due to both his fly ball rate and home run per fly ball rate declining from his rookie season. He had seasons of 13, 16 and 14 home runs in the minors from 2007 to 2009, respectively, and looked like that same hitter in 2010. I think he approaches 20 this season and I’m willing to bet he breaks 18.

Hill is worth taking a flier on in the last round of your draft because the potential is there, but I don’t think it’s something I want to predict right now.

Ackley and Kipnis just aren’t power hitters despite Kipnis’ mini outburst last season and I don’t think either hits 18.

As for Beckham, he’s an intriguing name. I honestly think he has a 50/50 shot to surpass 18 homers since he plays in a nice enough offensive ballpark, but right now it’s not something I think I want to expect until I see it happen once.

Which players will hit 18-plus home runs in 2012?

All of this analysis has given us 13 names that I think will hit 18 home runs as second basemen:

  • Dan Uggla
  • Ian Kinsler
  • Robinson Cano
  • Dustin Pedroia
  • Danny Espinosa
  • Ben Zobrist
  • Rickie Weeks
  • Ryan Roberts
  • Kelly Johnson
  • Michael Cuddyer
  • Chase Utley
  • Ryan Raburn
  • Neil Walker
Do you agree or disagree with my list? Leave anyone you think I’ve over- or underrated in the comments section below!
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2012 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Rankings, 41-60

By on September 13, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

We’re marching on in our quest to rank the top 100 keepers for fantasy baseball in 2012 by honing in on guys ranked 41 through 60 today.

Players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Check back tomorrow for players 21 through 40 as we count down the top 100.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

Also, Buster Posey was omitted from our rankings on the first g0-around and was slotted in at 46 ahead of Dan Uggla. You can see the full, updated rankings by going to our 2012 Keeper Rankings page.

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

RankPlayerAgePositionProfessor's Note
41Eric Hosmer221BLooks a lot like the next Joey Votto
42Alex Rodriguez363BHasn't topped 138 games played in last four years
43Jon Lester28SPElite K, ERA, W potential with a pedestrian WHIP
44Matt Cain27SPGreat ERA/WHIP every year but K/9 and W totals aren't ace-like
45David Price26SPSimilar to Lester with lower WHIP but fewer W
46Dan Uggla322BSecond half surge renewed faith in Uggla's all-around game
47Joe Mauer28CJust 12 HR in last two years but move to 1B is likely coming
48Desmond Jennings25OFLooks like the next Carl Crawford with better plate discipline
49Rickie Weeks292BFreak injury derailed a second straight stellar season; have faith
50Asdrubal Cabrera26SSCan the power carry over? Even if not he's still a well-rounded, young SS
51Shin-Soo Choo29OFReal rough year for Choo but I think he's the guy from '09 and '10
52Victor Martinez33CCan you show me a more consistent C? Now a DH, age is no concern
53Madison Bumgarner22SPMajor steps forward in '11; next year he becomes a near-ace
54Mat Latos24SPLow W potential but the rest is elite; '11 struggles were a fluke
55Ben Zobrist301B/2B/OFFantasy's preeminent utility guy does it all
56Ricky Romero27SPLow 3.00s ERA in AL East is something to behold
57Michael Young351B/2B/3BPower dropped but he's the only consistency in heart of Rangers' lineup
58Brett Lawrie223BAlways worth taking a chance on a guy with his power/speed combo
59Tommy Hanson25SPTendency toward breaking pitches worries me
60Paul Konerko361BGetting old but back-to-back .900+ OPS years show he's not done yet

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2011 Midseason Fantasy Rankings: Second Base

By on July 16, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Position Breakdown

  • Top 25: 0 players
  • Top 50: 5 players
  • Top 100: 11 players
  • Top 200: 16 players
  • Highest Ranked Player: Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It hasn’t been pretty for second basemen in 2011. We’ve had Chase Utley and Martin Prado go down with injuries and Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill, Neil Walker and Gordon Beckham just plain old sucking.

Fortunately Ian Kinsler and Rickie Weeks have been the bastion of health (ridiculous, I know) and Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips and Michael Young being their normal selves have saved face a bit.

Lucky for the first group, they get a fresh start in the second half of the season so let’s check in and see who you should be putting all of your chips into.

1. Robinson Cano, NYY | 57 R, .297, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 6 SB

I don’t know which accomplishment Cano’s father is more proud of. His son winning the home run derby or being BaseballProf’s top ranked second baseman for the second half. It’s a toss up.

2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS | 61 R, .289, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 16 SB

Check out the speed from the little man! His previous career high is 20 steals, but he’s on pace to shatter that by the end of the month. He’s been one of the best players over the last month and there’s no reason he shouldn’t continue raking and putting on laser shows.

3. Ian Kinsler, TEX | 65 R, .253, 13 HR, 34 RBI, 19 SB

There is a lot of hate in the fantasy community. He’s always hurt this and he can’t hit for a good batting average that. Did you know Kinsler has hit .297 over the last 30 days? Bet you didn’t. He bats leadoff for one of the best offenses in the league and walks more than every second baseman not named Pedroia. His .250 BABIP this season has been very unlucky, but in 11 games in July it sits at a cool .316 (.311 AVG). I have spoken!

4. Rickie Weeks, MIL | 67 R, .273, 17 HR, 39 RBI, 7 SB

Weeks must be eating his greens because somehow he has managed to stay healthy for 1 1/2 seasons—something he hadn’t done for his entire career. The steals have been a bit down from earlier in his career, but the power is up and that’s a trade I’m willing to take especially at this position.

5. Michael Young, TEX | 42 R, .324, 8 HR, 61 RBI, 4 SB

Being the teams’ primary DH, Young finds himself sitting on the bench more often than not but that hasn’t affected his hitting. He’s starting to find his power stroke, but he’s bringing it everywhere we thought he would. Young’s as steady as they come.

6. Brandon Phillips, CIN | 57 R, .290, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB

Phillips is quietly putting up one of his best averages in his career. The last time he approached .300 was in 2007 when he also had a 30/30 season. Oh the memories. His power is a bit down this year, but I peg an unlucky 7.5 HR/FB percentage as the culprit.

7. Ben Zobrist, TB | 61 R, .269, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB

We talked about Zorilla in our first base rankings. Needless to say, his skillset fits this position much better.

8. Chase Utley, PHI | 22 R, .278, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 8 SB

The injury still scares me a bit, but he has eight steals so he must be feeling good right? Utley is one of the toughest guys to rank after what he went through this offseason, but he could easily be a top four guy if he stays on the field. Remember, if.

9. Danny Espinosa, WAS | 45 R, .243, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 12 SB

Espinosa has been one of my favorite surprises of the season and he was on a majority of waiver wires as late as June 1. I talked about him in a recent post where I called him the next Kinsler.

10. Martin Prado, ATL | 38 R, .280, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 2 SB

Prado recently came off the disabled list and homered in his first game. That’s obviously a good sign and Prado should return to .300 form soon enough. Think of him as Placido Polanco with more pop and a better lineup spot.

11. Dan Uggla, ATL | 44 R, .186, 15 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB

Yes, Uggla was lost in the first half. His .185 batting average has been known to cause nausea, vomiting and some other unspeakable things, but he still managed to hit 15 home runs. His hitting has been coming on as of late with an eight-game hitting streak in which he has batted .333 with three home runs. God help me, but I believe.

12. Neil Walker, PIT | 47 R, .263, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB

Let me get this out of the way first, I am a Walker fan. He is probably the most uncharacteristic cleanup hitter in the majors, but because of his favorable lineup spot he leads all second basemen with 60 RBIs. I think Walker is more of a .280-.290 hitter and should end the season with around 15 home runs, which is pretty good production out of a middle infielder. He’s well on his way to reaching 90+ RBIs.

13. Howard Kendrick, LAA | 43 R, .301, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 9 SB

Kendrick was also talked about in the first base rankings post, but he belongs here. He started off with a great April where he hit .308 with six home runs and 12 RBI. Since then the average has been the same (.297), but his power has completely vanished (2 HR, 17 RBI). Kendrick has normally been one of those guys who tends to come on later in the season so I’d keep an eye on him.

14. Michael Cuddyer, MIN | 42 R, .292, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB

No need to reiterate what’s already been said. Check back to our midseason first base rankings, press Ctrl + F, and type in “Cuddyer.”

15. Kelly Johnson, ARI | 50 R, .216, 16 HR, 42 RBI, 8 SB

Johnson is doing his best Uggla impression except he’s winning because he also runs. Make sure you plan around that bad average, but he’s not bad for a guy with a girl’s name.

16. Aaron Hill, TOR | 29 R, .234, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 13 SB

Hill might just be the most frustrating player in baseball not named Billy Butler. He had that monster 2009 season, then followed it up with a horrible 2010 compaign in which he hit .205, but had 26 home runs. This year, he’s just decided to suck all around and there’s no way to explain it. He has 13 steals, which no one saw coming, but can we really expect them to keep coming? Regardless, I’m a sucker for power-hitting second basemen so he still has some potential in my eyes.

17. Dustin Ackley, SEA | 12 R, .289, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB

Ackley started off hot with a five-game hitting streak and batted .302 in his first 13 games with two home runs. Still, he’s only 23, in a pitcher’s park and in a horrible lineup. He might hit close to .300, but the runs and RBI won’t be there and I don’t see him making a big dent in either home runs or steals this year.

18. Ty Wigginton, COL | 37 R, .252, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 5 SB

Wigginton is prone to these ridiculous power-hitting streaks, much like the one we saw at the end of June (6 HR in 8 games). It’s then, and only then, that you should own him.

19. Brett Lawrie, TOR | 51 R, .354, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 11 SB (Triple-A)

Lawrie was ready to get called up and then he had to go ahead and get hit by a pitch on his hand. Ok, ok it’s not his fault, but it set him back considerably. I’m a little cautious because we’ve seen so many rookies struggle after being called up this year, but he’s worth the gamble especially in keeper leagues.

20. Gordon Beckham, CHW | 35 R, .248, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB

Will we see another resurgence by Beckham in the second half? I don’t see it happening and he definitely won’t be on my team if it does. Don’t these prospects know that they are supposed to be getting better?

21. Ryan Roberts, ARI | 48 R, .258, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 13 SB

If you didn’t sell high after Roberts’ hot start in April I just have one question for you: WHAT WERE YOU THINKING?!?

22. Alexi Casilla, MIN | 43 R, .255, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 13 SB

 Nothing to see here except a tiny guy running fast. But there’s some value in that.

23. Darwin Barney, CHC | 40 R, .300, 1 HR, 32 RBI, 4 SB

His empty batting average is sort of like Ritz crackers. They are very good, but you are never left satisfied.

24. Mark Ellis, COL | 34 R, .237, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 8 SB

Ellis has had a small comeback (.327/.365/.612) after taking his talents to Colorado. Still he’s burned us so many times before it’s hard to believe.

25. Jemile Weeks, OAK | 15 R, .294, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 8 SB

Weeks has a chance to help you in steals and that’s about it. His batting average will be mediocre and his power numbers will be non-existent. Still, if you feel the need for speed it seems like Weeks is here to stay so pick him up. Then go watch a Fast and the Furious marathon.

Honorable Mention 

Daniel Murphy, NYM | 35 R, .307, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 4 SB

Murphy is your typical “do nothing great, but everything solid” player. At least Weeks has a chance to be dominant in one category.

Don’t like my rankings? Tell me about it in the comments section or on Twitter @BaseballProf.

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2011 Midseason Fantasy Rankings: First Base

By on July 14, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Position Breakdown

  • Top 25: 6 players
  • Top 50: 11 players
  • Top 100: 16 players
  • Top 200: 26 players
  • Highest Ranked Player: Adrian Gonzalez, BOS

Gonzalez has been better than advertised, Albert Pujols has been mortal and Paul Konerko‘s 2010 re-birth was no fluke. Baseball’s deepest offensive position didn’t disappoint, but it has actually been surprisingly top-heavy. Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman have shown virtually no weaknesses in their games and have been far and away better than any other first basemen thus far in the season.

For the second half, I’m tossing Pujols name into that elite upper echelon and dropping Berkman out due to lingering concerns over his ability to play at this level for a full season. Yes, I know he’s rededicated himself to his health and conditioning, and he still ranks in the top 10 (ninth) among all first basemen in my second half rankings, but there’s always that little bit of worry in the back of my mind.

1. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS | 64 R, .354, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 1 SB

Gonzalez has just 17 homers because he managed just one in April, however, this was expected as A-Gon was coming off shoulder surgery. He then blasted nine homers in May, six more in June and another in July. The power is there. The RBIs are there. And amazingly, the batting average is legit. He’s hitting .383 at Fenway, but that’s actually a sustainable average given how effectively he uses the left field wall. His .324 average on the road is just higher than the .315 mark he posted away from San Diego last season and he actually has lineup protection this time around. Gonzalez is the best player in baseball.

2. Miguel Cabrera, DET | 63 R, .311, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 1 SB

Choosing between Cabrera and Fielder is like choosing between Kate Upton and Kate Beckinsale. If you’re complaining about either then you’re an idiot. If there’s a difference it’s that Cabrera hits for a higher average and Fielder will probably tally a few more RBI. I like Cabrera’s whole package a smidge better.

3. Prince Fielder, MIL | 53 R, .297, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 0 SB

Just re-read what I wrote about Cabrera, mkay?

4. Albert Pujols, STL | 54 R, .280, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 5 SB

Pujols was the 14th-ranked first baseman in mid-May. He’s the eighth-ranked first baseman at the Break. He’s a freak of nature for coming back from a fractured forearm as quickly as he did and I have complete confidence in him going forward. I seriously wanted to put him second on this list, especially considering his 1.197 OPS in June, but along with our next guy they’re all too close to really differentiate.

5. Joey Votto, CIN | 59 R, .329, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 6 SB

Votto’s power from 2010 was a fluke. His HR/FB rate was crazy high and I doubt we’ll see him top 35 too many more times, but his average and the handful of steals he contributes are exactly what we expected.

6. Paul Konerko, CHW | 41 R, .319, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 1 SB

Konerko has scored fewer runs than anyone on this list until you get down to Adam Lind and Pablo Sandoval at 13th and 14th, respectively, but both of those guys missed time this season. The White Sox have just the 17th best offense in baseball this season and have only one other batter that’s been even remotely scary this season (Carlos Quentin). OK, Alexei Ramirez has been pretty solid, too, but the point is this isn’t the Yankees lineup. I’m surprised Konerko has 67 RBI, but the fact of the matter is he is still raking.

7. Mark Teixeira, NYY | 52 R, .244, 25 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB

Speaking of the Yankees’ lineup, Teixeira checks in at number eight. What can we say about Tex that hasn’t been said already? The man has forgotten how to hit for average and has become one of the preeminent power threats in the game.

8. Ryan Howard, PHI | 47 R, .257, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB

No more Mr. 40/140. Howard is still a second half beast, but the Phillies’ offense isn’t as scary on the field as it is on paper. Still, Howard’s 18 homers and 72 RBI are pretty nice.

9. Lance Berkman, STL | 54 R, .290, 24 HR, 63 RBI, 0 SB

This article dated June 4, 2011 is a pretty good summary of why Berkman is a completely different player than we saw last season. While I agree with everything in that article, I still have a hard time believing he’ll keep this rate up all summer though with those 35-year-old knees patrolling the outfield.

10. Kevin Youkilis, BOS | 52 R, .285, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 1 SB

Youk had 15 RBI in April, 19 in May, 21 in June and, if July was a full, 25-game month, he’d be on pace for 22. His slow April (.218 average) is well behind him and the power is starting to come around. Stick him between Gonzalez and David Ortiz and you have what might be the cushiest lineup spot in all the land.

11. Adam Lind, TOR | 37 R, .300, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 1 SB

Lind has just .260 at-bats on the season, fewer than anyone on this list except Sandoval. Despite missing so much time he has just two fewer homers than Cabrera, one fewer than Gonzalez and one more than Pujols. Remember when Lind batted .117 against left-handed pitchers last season? He doesn’t. He’s hitting .314 against southpaws in 2011. Lind is back to 2009 form. If he scored more runs and I had bigger cojones I might have ranked him as high as seven or eight. He’s a great bargain player in the second half.

12. Michael Young | 42 R, .323, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB

Young has been up around .340 most of the season before struggling at the start of June, but he ended it nicely with five straight multi-hit games, four of which he homered in, and now he’s back up to .323 with a less-depressing-but-still-disappointing eight home runs. At least the RBI are there.

13. Ben Zobrist, TB | 59 R, .269, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 10 SB

You’re probably using Zobrist at second base or in the outfield, but nevertheless he’s tied for second among all first basemen in runs scored and leads the position in steals. He’s probably a .270 hitter but he has modest speed and pop and bats second in a lineup that features Evan Longoria. Expect more of the same going forward from the Zorilla.

14. Pablo Sandoval, SF | 26 R, .303, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB

Kung Fu Panda currently has a 21-game hitting streak and is slugging .503 on the season. Like Lind, a lost 2010 season is in the rear-view.

15. Gaby Sanchez, FLA | 46 R, .293, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB

Sanchez is turning into a nice first baseman here. He helps in the averages (.293/.374/.472) and has 20-25 home run potential. Kind of what everyone thought Billy Butler would become. More on him later.

16. Michael Morse, WAS | 37 R, .306, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB

You’re either going to love him or absolutely hate him. Morse is a streaky hitter, who disappointed out of the gate after a promising spring training only to burst out with the best May/June numbers in the majors. The end of the season numbers will be fine, but don’t feel the need to keep him in the starting lineup at the first sign of a slump.

17. Victor Martinez, CLE | 37 R, .316, 6 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB

You look at Martinez’s stat line the same way you like at your hot cousin. Sure it looks nice, but you would never go to bed with it. I want more power and runs (in Martinez’s stats, not in girls).

18. Michael Cuddyer, MIN | 41 R, .298, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB

Cuddyer is always an interesting fantasy player to me. It seems like the only years he is worth owning are when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are injured, leaving him as the RBI guy in the middle of the lineup. Good combo of speed and power at the first base position.

19. Carlos Pena, CHC | 43 R, .225, 19 HR, 49 RBI, 0 SB

Pena got off to a horrioble start in April hitting just .158 with zilch in the home run department.  Since then he has hit .244 with 19 home runs. Seems like he has warmed up to National League pitching wouldn’t you say?.

20. Carlos Santana, CLE | 41 R, .230, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 3 SB

Santana is better utilized as a catcher in fantasy, but he still has some pop and is even more valuable in OBP leagues. Santana’s walk rate is a ridiculously high 17.5 percent and a lot of it is because he barely lifts that piece of lumber off his shoulder. His 35.8 swing percentage is fourth lowest in the league. Someone needs to tell him that home runs are more important than getting on base!

21. Eric Hosmer, KC | 25 R, .268, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 2 SB

Sure Hosmer is the young prospect that has all the upside, but since coming up he’s struggled a bit adjusting to big league pitching. I see him hitting close to .270 and 10 home runs the rest of the way. He’s also a sleeper in the RBI department because the Royals lineup isn’t as bad you may think (10th in runs, 12th in OPS).

22. Freddie Freeman, ATL | 39 R, .274, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 2 SB

Freeman got off to a painfully slow start, but he’s really come into his own. He’s starting to swing more, which I’m fine with as long as he’s mashing the ball. He’s just 21 (turning 22 in Sept.) and I can see him putting up numbers very similar to Hosmer in the second half, but I’m sure you knew that already by looking at the rankings.

23. Billy Butler, KC | 36 R, .294, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 1 SB

Time for America’s biggest disappointment in baseball. OK, that might be a little harsh, but when is he going to start hitting home runs!? He actually increased his ground ball rate to 49.1 percent and is hitting fly balls at a paltry 29.5 percent. Since his very promising 2009 season (.301, 51 doubles, 21 HR) his ISO has dropped steadily from .191 to .121. The conversion for that is one Starlin Castro, or three Jose Bautista‘s.

24. Adam Dunn, CWS | 24 R, .160, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB

I am so confused by Dunn’s sudden demise that I don’t even know what to write here. He’s hit at least 38 home runs in every season since 2004 for Pete’s sake! I don’t even know who Pete is, but I bet you he is just as appalled as I am. Yes, Dunn has been horrible, but if something clicks and he puts together a 20-home run second half would you be totally surprised? Might as well make a low-ball offer and see if you can get him on the cheap.

25. Todd Helton, COL | 38 R, .321, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 0 SB

Honestly, the only difference between Helton and Butler is that Helton has more power, but worse health. I side with health now, but not later when I’m eating a Baconator at Wendy’s.

Notable Omissions

Howard Kendrick, LAA | 43 R, .302, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 9 SB

His skill set is perfect for a second baseman, not at first. If you have Kendrick regularly starting at first base there is something wrong with your team. Go fix it.

Carlos Lee, HOU | 35 R, .268, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 3 SB

He’s showing his age with diminished power. Not completely worthless, but in a bad lineup I don’t think he is top 25 material.

Justin Morneau, MIN | 16 R, .225,  4 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB

I just ran the numbers and Morneau has been dropped in 100 percent of doctor’s fantasy leagues. That can’t be good.

Ike Davis, NYM | 20 R, .302, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB

Davis is currently trying to avoid season-ending microfracture surgery on his ankle. It’s a shame too because he was having one helluva season.

Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 68 R, .312, 25 HR, 79 RBI, 7 SB (Double-A)

Juan Miranda? Xavier Nady? I mean c’mon this guy at least deserves a chance over those guys.

George Fitopoulos contributed to this post. It’s up to you to figure out how and where. Feel free to weigh in with your input in the comments section or on our Twitter @BaseballProf.

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Amazing Ackley officially ready for The Show

By on July 6, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

It took just 15 games and 50 at-bats for me to officially proclaim Dustin Ackley one of the best offensive second basemen in baseball. In his very young major league career Ackley already has three homers, two steals and a .300 batting average. More impressively he has more just five strikeouts and six walks. No one should be surprised that Ackley” has been able to work counts and earn free passes — he drew 55 walks and struck out just 38 times in Triple-A this season — but his 10 percent strikeout rate to start his big league career sure is impressive.

Of course, there is already solid depth at second base this season, minimizing the impact Ackley will have relative to his position. Entering Tuesday’s slate of games there were eight second basemen in Yahoo!’s top 100 and eight more ranked somewhere between 101 and 200.

ESPN had a segment the other night comparing Ackley’s swing to Chase Utley’s. I don’t want to get ahead of myself and say that Ackley will blossom into a perennial 30-homer threat (even though he and Utley have the same build), but it certainly is an encouraging comparison. Here’s to hoping Ackley pairs with Justin Smoak to become a lethal duo in the middle of a Mariners offense that has been rather pathetic for some time now.

  • C.C. Sabathia followed up his 13-strikeout performance on June 30 against Milwaukee with 11 more punchados against Cleveland. Sabathia has a career WHIP of 1.23 but he’s posted WHIPs over 1.40 in six of his last seven Julys.
  • Carlos Carrasco finally got lit up after five straight quality starts. I’ll take the blame for jinxing him.
  • Jeff Karstens did it again. His win against the Astros was his seventh of the season and his seventh straight quality start. He’s allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his last 12 starts.
  • Jonathan Papelbon‘s ERA is now over 4.00 even though he picked up his 18th save of the season. He struggled to begin June, allowing six runs in his first 3 1/3 innings last month but had since gone seven straight appearances without allowing a run. I’m inclined to think this was just a hiccup for Paps, but Boston fans will be relentless if the the ninth inning is anything less than spotless given how poorly he pitched last season.
  • Freddie Freeman homered for the third time in two days and now has five in his last 11 games and 12 on the season. He’s hot and has the talent. Give him a chance if you need some pop. I almost added him into this post alongside Mitch Moreland but figured of the two I’d rather have Moreland. They’re statistically very similar in my book.
  • This is what the Mets expected when they inked Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran. Bay homered twice and Beltran contributed one of his own to give the Mets a 6-0 win over Ted Lilly and the LA Dodgers. Bay has been hot of late, hitting in eight straight games, but even with the two homers on Tuesday he has just six dingers on the season and a “Wtf?!”-inducing 11 extra base hits in 222 at-bats. Gross.
  • Ben Zobrist went 3-for-4 after five straight hitless games and added a steal for good measure. He remains one of the most frustrating players to own due to his streaky boom or bust nature, but when he’s hot you hate facing him. For what it’s worth, Zobrist is batting .306 on the road this season but just .210 at home and .318 during day games but just .228 at night. Whenever the Rays plays day games on the road, watch out for Zorilla.
  • Pablo Sandoval has now hit safely in 16 straight games and 21 of his last 22. Could Kung Fu Panda really be back???
  • Brandon League pulled off the ol’ “blow the save, get the win” routine on Tuesday night. By know you know how much I hate that. I am therefore stripping League of the win and crediting it to Mariners’ outfielder Franklin Gutierrez. His single and steal to leadoff the 10th essentially won the game for the Mariners even though Oakland shortstop Cliff Pennington gave the game away with a throwing error that led to the winning run. Congratulations, Franklin! You join Brandon Crawford of the Giants as the only position players I have officially given the win.
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Albert Pujols checks in as 14th best first baseman of 2011

By on May 26, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Maybe Albert Pujols is mortal after all. The man who has never batted lower than .312 in a single season is currently batting .261. His previous career worst walk rate was 10.2 percent way back in his rookie season, but thus far he’s only walking 8.9 percent of the time. Pujols has averaged nearly 41 homers and 123 RBI per season for a decade, but through 51 games he’s only on pace for 25 and 83. Could we really see King Albert finish a season batting .261 with 25 homers and 83 RBI?

Forget all of the earthquakes, tsunamis and tornados. Pujols’ sudden decline is the strongest evidence those damn Mayans might be right.

But for every struggling star there’s an equally unexpected positive performer ready to take his place. Below is a list of the top 15 first basemen through the season’s first eight weeks according to Yahoo!

Here are a few of my thoughts on just what’s happened at the game’s premier offensive position:

  • I guess drafting Adrian Gonzalez with a mid-first round pick wasn’t so crazy after all. The power was slow to develop as many expected, but right now he’s the game’s fifth best player with a league-leading 43 RBI and a Pujolsian .340 average. As a Red Sox fan I can attest to the fact that Gonzalez is abusing the Green Monster and that bloated batting average is no fluke. With eight home runs in May alone, Gonzalez has a serious shot at a 40-homer, 140-RBI season that would make even Ryan Howard jealous.
  • Lance Berkman has collected just one home run and three RBI over his last 10 games, but he’s also batted .321 (9-for-28) over that span with 12 walks to just five strikeouts. I’m still on the “sell Berkman ASAP” bandwagon because his age and the lack of a DH in the National League make me wonder how long he can keep this up. People in head-to-head leagues should be very wary of Berkman because of the strong possibility of a poor September when he would have already put 120-plus games on those old knees of his.
  • Joey Votto appears to be more of a 25-30 home run guy and not the 37-homer monster we saw last season. He doesn’t hit enough fly balls (just 31.5% this season, career 34.9%) and his HR/FB rate was insane last year (25.0%). He’s better than what he’s shown thus far, though.
  • I expected to see Mark Teixeira rebound in the batting average department after he batted .256 last year with a .268 BABIP, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Right now he’s batting .253 with a .244 BABIP. Maybe that’s just who he is now.
  • It’s rare to see a player with second base eligibility rank so highly in the first base rankings, but Howie Kendrick is doing just that with an absurdly well-rounded season. Pause for a moment, though. After hitting four home runs in the first eight games on the season, Kendrick has homered just three times in his past 37 games.
  • Gaby Sanchez is the real deal and it’s a crime he’s owned in just 84 percent of leagues. Remember when we all raved about Billy Butler and his ability to hit for a good average with doubles gap power? Butler never cashed in on all those doubles and became a hollow .300 hitter by first base (and now DH) standards. Sanchez hits a good amount of fly balls with a modest HR/FB rate, and while I don’t expect him to become a consistent 30 home run threat, he does a little bit of everything and could be a 100 RBI hitter.
  • Ben Zobrist had 10 of his 28 RBI in one day, meaning he has just 18 in every game that wasn’t on April 28. Regardless, I do still like Zobrist a lot because of his great position eligibility, his ability to score a ton of runs, his high walk rate and his potentially lethal power/speed combo.
  • Kevin Youkilis is really turning his season around. He’s improved his average from .240 to .275 over the last 10 games and is batting .333 with 3 homers, 17 RBI and an OPS of 1.000 in May.
  • I mentioned Howard earlier, but where has the power gone?! He recently went seven games without a hit and, after his game-tying 10th inning blast last night, has just two RBI since May 13 (both solo homers). Thankfully he has hit in five straight games now with three multi-hit efforts and those two solo homers during the mini-streak.

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