The good news for Orioles fans, Markakis owners and our current rankings is that, despite offseason surgery, Markakis is projected to be ready by Opening Day. Back in 2008, Markakis hit 20 homers and clubbed 48 doubles. It was his second straight 20-homer, 45-double season, and most figured those doubles would eventually turn into homers as Markakis aged (sound familiar, Billy Butler?). They didn’t, and instead of adding home runs it seems Markakis has seen his best power days come and go. He’s still a fairly balanced fantasy option with his ability to bat over .280, threaten 20 homers and crack double digits in steals, but he doesn’t do any one thing very well and Baltimore’s offense can still only be described as “disappointing.”

Best case scenario: Hunter Pence (PHI)
Similar players: Michael Cuddyer (COL), Seth Smith (COL), Melky Cabrera (SF)
Worst case scenario: Jason Bay (NYM)

Strengths

vs. RHP, second half. Over the last two years Markakis has averaged one homer every 37 at-bats versus right-handed pitchers. That’s not necessarily very good, but it’s a heck of a lot better than his homer rate against lefties. We’ll get to that. For whatever reason, Markakis also flexes his muscle a lot more in the second half than the first half, averaging a homer every 43 at-bats before the All-Star Break for his career and one every 29 at-bats after the break. If you think that’s more a product of his 20-homer power early in his career, rest assured that it’s not. I checked.

Weaknesses

Power vs. LHP. One hundred twenty-six. That’s how many at-bats Markakis goes between homers against left-handed pitchers. Again, 126. He hits lefties for a good average, career .289, but the power is completely nonexistent. If he played a full season against lefties, he’d hit just five home runs. Five. That’s what Elvis Andrus does.

ADP Report (125.9)

Go for it. Markakis at his worst (2010) ranked exactly at this ADP, 126th overall, and I just can’t imagine him finishing a year worse that 79 runs, 12 homers, 60 RBI, seven steals and a .297 average. Even last year, when he didn’t hit 75 runs or RBI, his balance was enough to make him the 99th-ranked player overall and the 37th-ranked outfielder. His outfield rank last year doesn’t exactly jump out at you, but (by my count) at least four to seven of the players ranked ahead of him were starters at other positions, making Markakis a solid third outfielder in 10- and 12-team leagues. Plus, the tier of players directly after him (Angel Pagan, Juan Pierre, Torii Hunter, Carlos Lee, Austin Jackson) are a lot less reliable than the Orioles’ resident Mr. Disappointing.

Best case scenario: Brian McCann (ATL)
Similar players: Alex Avila (DET), Miguel Montero (ARI), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Wilson Ramos (WAS)

Strengths

HR, R. Wieters has enough power to hit 25-plus homers, which is good for almost any position but great for a catcher. The same goes for runs scored. Wieters spent most of last year batting sixth or seventh, but this year he projects as the fifth batter in Baltimore’s lineup. That should result in more RBI opportunities, and, combined with Wieters’ .274 xBA last season versus his .262 actual average, we could see a stark rise in runs driven in.

Weaknesses

Lineup. I really like Wieters as a very good, but not elite, catching option. Batting average would normally be a weakness, but when you compare him to all catchers, it’s tough to find anyone who hits for an average over .270 and can hit some homers, too.

ADP Report (102.1)

This ADP is a bit high and probably the result of drafters panicking about getting stuck with someone like J.P. Arencibia or Wilson Ramos as their starting catcher. Believe it or not, those guys are going just three catchers after Wieters on average. If reaching here is what it takes to prevent getting stuck with a vastly inferior option, then go for it, but it’s unlikely Wieters lives up to this pick and finishes the year as a borderline top 100 option.

Best case scenario: Another 2011 season
Similar players: Jhonny Peralta (DET), Josh Willingham (MIN), Adam Jones (BAL)
Worst case scenario: Alex Gonzalez (MIL)

Strengths

Power, home park. Hardy’s .222 ISO in 2011 was the same as Joey Votto and better than notable power hitters like Dan Uggla (.220), Carlos Santana (.217), Jay Bruce (.217) and Adrian Gonzalez (.210). Did I mention that he is a shortstop? Also, while his power was nearly the same both on the road (.213 ISO) and at home (.232), Hardy batted 35 points higher (.288) at Camden Yards.

Weaknesses

Batting average. Hardy’s plate discipline took a downturn last year and if that continues he has no chance at hitting .270. Whether or not Hardy returns to walking at about the league average level (~8%) remains to be seen.

ADP Report (131.3)

It’s obvious that the public isn’t sure which Hardy is going to show in 2012 because his ADP is low compared to the stats he put up last year. It’s telling that the aging Derek Jeter is being drafted 125th overall and just goes to show that fantasy owners would rather know what they’re getting in their shortstop than risk a pick on a power-upside only player.

Best case scenario: Dan Uggla (ATL)
Similar players: J.J. Hardy (BAL), Josh Willingham (MIN)…usually we do a third but even these two are a stretch.
Worst case scenario: Carlos Pena (TB)

Strengths

HR and, by association, R and RBI. Reynolds has been an everyday starter since 2007. Since then, he ranks 12th in the league in home runs hit. He’s good for 80-plus RBI each year and should score 80-plus runs too. Both of those are by virtue of his ability to hit the long ball, but you read the intro so you know that already.

Weaknesses

Strikeouts, batting average, vs. Power Pitchers. Over that same five-year span referenced above, Reynolds has the highest strikeout rate of the 332 players with enough at-bats to qualify (I don’t know how many at-bats this is, but Fangraphs is never wrong). He’ll kill your batting average, and he’s exceptionally awful versus power pitchers. Baseball Reference classifies pitchers as power, finesse or somewhere in the middle, and power pitchers are those who finished in the top third of the league in walks plus strikeouts. Against power pitchers, Reynolds batted .147 last year, so bench him against guys that fit this mold. No amount of power can make up for that little production.

ADP Report (119.0)

I can get on board with drafting Reynolds this high if your team needs power in the worst way, but if you’ve already got a substantial amount of power, especially from power scarce positions like catcher (Carlos Santana) or shortstop (Troy Tulowitzki), then I’d absolutely pass on Reynolds at 119 and even at 127 (where we ranked him).

Scott will play DH for the Rays, likely nestling himself into the team’s six hole in the lineup behind Ben Zobrist and Matt Joyce. With both Zobrist and Joyce considered high-OBP types (Zobrist has a career .348 OBP and can push .380, Joyce has a career .345 and could push .360). that should mean plenty of RBI chances for Scott.

Scott missed half of last season with shoulder surgery but “expects to be ready by spring training at the plate and in the outfield, assuming his throwing shoulder has fully recovered.”

When healthy, Scott is about a .260 hitter with 25 homer power. Camden Yards was a more power-friendly park than Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay (LHB  home run park factor of 118 versus 89 at the Trop), so it remains to be seen how Scott’s home runs translate. For his career, Scott averages a home run every 16.3 at-bats at Camden Yards and just one every 26.0 at-bats everywhere else. If he continues to hit at that rate away from Camden Yards this season, he’ll finish the year with 18 homers (he’s never topped 475 at-bats in a single season).

Scott doesn’t play a lot, especially for a DH-type player, but for the amount of time he does play he’s a good value source of homers in fantasy if you can catch him when he’s in the lineup. He’ll likely be available on free agency for most of the year in all but the deepest of leagues, but it remains to be seen how the move away from Baltimore affects his only source of fantasy value, his power. Scott won’t be drafted so keep an eye on him as usual in fantasy leagues, but it’s reasonable to expect a slight drop in power production while he’s with the Rays.

Potential roster vacancies: 1B, 2B, 3B, OF, DH, SP, RP

You name it, the Orioles need it. Despite having some of the more promising youth in the game over the last few years, the Orioles have managed to build one of the more incomplete teams in the majors. In the infield, Brian Roberts is a perennial injury risk at second base and Josh Bell, slated to start at third base, has just 220 career at-bats in the majors and a minor league track record that doesn’t inspire confidence. Nolan Reimold gave us hope back in 2009 but he’s spent the better part of the last two years struggling to stay healthy while disappointing at every turn. Chris Davis is penciled in at DH right now, but he’s developing a reputation as a Quadruple-A caliber player. Robert Andino should get plenty of at-bats backing everyone up, and in a pinch Mark Reynolds could shift to third base, which would open up first base for some lucky minor leaguer. And those are just the batters!

Baltimore has one of the thinnest rotations in the majors, and while the team has hope that youngsters like Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman will become rotation mainstays, that’s definitely far from a sure thing. Right now the team’s closer is Jim Johnson so if they could ever find or develop a legitimate power closing candidate, you’d have to think they’d go that route. If Johnson fails it’s — gulp — back to Kevin Gregg.

But, other than that, they’re in great shape.

Baltimore Orioles Top 5 Fantasy Minor League Prospects

1. Dan Klein, RP

Depending on who you ask, Klein ranks somewhere in the Orioles top five to 10 prospects. He has an incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio, averaging 10.9 K/9 and just 1.5 BB/9 in the minors. Barring injury (he was shut down last season with a rehabable shoulder tear), he’ll definitely be in Baltimore in 2012, but will he get a chance to close games? Tristan H. Cockcroft wrote Klein could get a chance but as a “late, late-season option and assuming his rehabilitation from shoulder surgery goes spotlessly.”

2. Matt Angle, OF

Angle got some September playing time last season and stole 11 bases for the Orioles. He batted just .177 but, with a 12.6 percent walk rate and 13.7 percent strikeout rate, that average was unusually low. Our xBA formula says Angle should have batted .323 with a .384 BABIP, not .177 with a .200 BABIP. He has almost zero power with just 11 homers in his four minor league seasons, but boy, can he run. Kyle Hudson is another speedy outfielder with even less power than Angle. He’s someone you should know, too, but Angle gets the edge.

3. Ryan Adams, 2B

Adams actually got 89 at-bats with the Orioles last season, appearing in 29 games. He’s shot up through the minors, starting 2010 in rookie ball before playing all of last season in Triple-A (aside from his stints with Baltimore in late-May/early-June and September). Adams is a right-handed bat with a tendency to strike out (over 20 percent of the time) so he’s probably a .260-.270 hitter right now, but he has a little bit of power. He has 44 career minor league homers, which averages 11 home runs per 500 at-bats. His speed isn’t really noteworthy, though he could steal five-plus bases.

4. Chris Tillman, SP

Tillman gets ranked only because he’s likely one of the first two starters the Orioles will call upon (Brad Bergesen is the other). Tillman was ranked the 22nd best prospect in the game before the 2009 season, but he’s struggled with walks and hasn’t panned out in his not-so-brief 180.2 major league innings. Over that time he’s accumulated a 7-15 record with a 5.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.78 K/9 and 3.99 BB/9. I’m not a fan of Tillman, but he may get a shot. Note: I omitted Bergesen because he has 394.1 innings pitched with the Orioles, but I like him a lot better than Tillman. At least he has control.

5. Joe Mahoney, 1B

A lot of the Orioles’ best prospects (Manny Machado for example) are a couple years down the road. Even though Mahoney’s ceiling isn’t very high and many scouts are placing the 25-year-old in the Chris Davis/Quadruple-A category, he could be the first corner infielder called up if things don’t go well with Bell. Over a full 500 at-bat season (which he’d never get) Mahoney could hit .280 with 15 homers and 15 steals. You’d like more power from your first baseman, but the steals could be nice.