Tag Archives | B.J. Upton

How does my draft look?

By on March 30, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Since Opening Day is a week away (wow!) I thought this would be a good time to post one of the several emails we’ve received regarding post-draft advice/analysis. This one comes from Eric:

“Hey Bryan, just got finished drafting. Overall I like my team, I had to take Haren in the 2nd and Hamels in 3rd because SP went flying. I also reached on some rookies 8-11 rds (Heyward, Strasburg, Matusz) but those were like my late round picks anyway. But here is how my team ended up:

C- Wieters
1B- Gonzalez
2B- Zobrist
SS- A. Ramirez
3B- Longoria
OF- Kemp
OF- B.J. Upton
OF- Cuddyer
Util- C. Jones
Util- C. Gonzalez
BN- Heyward
BN- Adam LaRoche
BN- Smoak
BN- S. Castro

SPs-
Haren
Hamels
Garza
Oswalt
Dempster
Strasburg
Matusz

RPs-
Bell
Marmol
Soriano

I like it. I got thrown off early and had to take another direction, but that’s how this league is. Let me know what you think of my team.”

On the surface, I really like the balance of your offense. You have an above average or great starter at just about every position, and at the ones you don’t (mainly SS), you found guys that are good, calculated risks. Your OF demonstrates this balance perfectly with the all-around stud in Kemp, the speedster with power potential in Upton, and the big power bat in Cuddyer. Nice job finding bats for your bench with high upside. I can’t preach enough how wasteful it is to put someone like Miguel Tejada on your bench. At best, you can find someone like that on free agency.

Interestingly, your SP looks a lot like the guys I have on my team as I drafted Hamels, Dempster, Strasburg, and Matusz as well. Obviously I like those guys, although I’m hesitant to project too much from Dempster. However, he does represent a good, proven commodity at a good value spot in the draft.

If I did have any words of advice or areas of improvement though, it’s these:

  • Roy Oswalt looks like he might be heading toward another injury-plagued season, so if possible you should try to move him for someone like Kevin Slowey who is looking good this spring after coming back from surgery that shortened his 2009 season.
  • I also am a fan of the “don’t draft elite closers” strategy, and you pegged some good ones. The only downside to this method is that you must be diligent throughout the season to make sure you don’t drop under three closers. In fact, if possible, it might be good for you to target a fourth, perhaps someone like Chris Perez (CLE), Franklin Morales (temporary in COL), Jason Frasor (TOR), or Jon Rauch (MIN, although they’re doing that whole bullpen-by-committee thing).

Overall, nice work!

What does everyone else think? If you have an opinion, leave it in the comments section. I’m sure Eric would love all the advice he can get!

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B.J. Upton, Clayton Kershaw or Neftali Feliz?

By on February 28, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

We received an email yesterday from Stephen asking us a keeper question. Stephen wrote:

“Keeper League. You can only keep one of the following guys:

  • B.J. Upton
  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Neftali Feliz

Who do you keep?”

Good question, Stephen. This comes down to your roster’s current makeup. Here are some things to consider:

  1. Is this your only keeper or do you have other guys you are keeping?
  2. If you are keeping other guys, what are their strengths? Are you keeping pitchers or batters? If they are batters, are they steals guys?
  3. Do you consider yourself adept at finding pitching gems in the mid rounds (like Vazquez or Greinke last season)?

In a vacuum, we’d recommend you keep B.J. Upton. The fact of the matter is that Upton is a 40-steal player with an amazing amount of potential. Upton was one of seven players who stole 40 bases last year, and only two of those seven hit more than eight home runs. Upton was one of them (11). It’s not like he is an elite power guy because he certainly isn’t, but unlike Jacoby Ellsbury, Nyjer Morgan, Rajai Davis and Michael Bourn, Upton can contribute in other categories. It’s a high-risk choice to keep Upton, but we think it’s your best choice.

Clayton Kershaw is an ace-in-the-making, but many of his peripherals last season suggest he wasn’t quite as good as he appeared. While he will still be an important fantasy commodity this year, there are many other similar pitchers you can target. What are we getting at? Upton’s 40-steal potential is more important than what Kershaw can contribute.

As for Neftali Feliz, he has a ways to go before he becomes a key fantasy cog. Feliz is supposed to spend the near future stretching out to become a starter again, and he combines unhittable stuff with uncertain control. Interestingly, his H/9, BB/9 and K/9 in the minors are just shy of those we saw from Clayton Kershaw. Why go for the knockoff when you can have the real thing? Kershaw is the better pitching keeper here.

Don’t forget to keep sending us your questions with a chance to be featured in our next Mailbag post!

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Top 10 Most Surprising Stats of 2009

By on February 1, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

Because lists seem to be so popular (hey, they’re easy to read) and because I have an unhealthy obsession with stats, I thought I’d put the two together.

I present to you the Top 10 Most Surprising Stats of 2009.

Each of the stats from the list below really does come from 2009, and most of them even surprised me when I stumbled upon them. It’s by no means an exhaustive list; there are a lot of stats out there I didn’t even get to while making this, but I assure you my search was expansive. If you’ve got anything to add, just leave a comment.

So without further ado, the Top 10!

10. Mike Pelfrey had six balks in 2009. To put this in perspective, no one else has had more than four in a single season since Arizona’s Brian Anderson had five in 2002. The league leader every other season has had four, so six is a pretty sizable 50% increase. No one has been this bad since good ol’ Chris Michalak who recorded six balks splitting time between Texas and Toronto in 2001.

9. Miguel Tejada has led the entire league in GIDP four times in the last six seasons. With 29 GIDP in 2009, Tejada once again reclaimed the crown as Man Most Likely to Produce Two Outs with One Swing of the Bat. In the only two seasons he didn’t lead the league, he finished T-8th (2007) and T-2nd (2005). In the last 10 years, only four players have grounded into more than 27 double plays in a single season: Paul Konerko (28 in 2003), Brad Ausmus (30 in 2002), Ben Grieve (32 in 2000), and Magglio Ordonez (28 in 2000). Tejada has done that three times since 2006.

8. Brad Lidge actually converted 93.8% of his save chances at home. We all know Lidge had a historically bad season, but what you may not have known is that Lidge was actually a pretty successful closer at home. He converted 15-of-16 save chances (1 BS, 93.8%) at Citizen’s Bank Park versus 31-of-42 save chances (11 BS, 73.8%) on the road. Granted, his ERA at home was still an awful 6.10, but it’s the result that matters, right?

7. Seven of the top 10 finishers in OPS were first basemen. Everyone knows that first base is the deepest position as far as batting talent goes, but it’s amazing just how deep it is. In the last 10 years, there has only once been more than four players at any one position in the top 10 for OPS (five first basemen in 2005), so seven in 2009 is insane.

6. As a team, the Los Angeles Dodgers finished 2009 with an opponents’ average of .233. Due in large part to the league’s best bullpen and Clayton Kershaw’s dominance, the Dodgers’ .233 OBA was the lowest of any team in the last 10 years. It also marked the third time they led baseball in this category over the same span.

5. Mark Teixeira developed an interesting walk trend in 2009. He walked 17 times in March/April, 10 times in May, 17 times in June, 10 times in July, 17 times in August, and 10 times in September/October. Notice a pattern?

4. Mark Hendrickson allowed 15 stolen bases without anyone caught stealing… and he’s a lefty! As a Red Sox fan, I grew tired of watching Brad Penny allow stolen base after stolen base (only 3-of-31 caught stealing), but Hendrickson was arguably worse. Only two other pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched failed to record a single runner caught stealing: Hiroki Kuroda (0-of-10) and Sean West (0-of-3). On top of that, Hendrickson was the only lefty in the bottom 10 for CS%. Let’s cut Hendrickson a little bit of slack, though. Baltimore was 27th in the league in CS%, so clearly their catchers weren’t doing a great job either.

3. The bottom five teams in sacrifice hits in all of baseball were from the AL East. Yes, you read that correctly. New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Boston, and Baltimore finished 26th through 30th, respectively, in sacrifice hits. The American League has always been known as a more free-swinging league, but an entire division representing the bottom five is astounding.

2. Prince Fielder was the only player in the league to play in every one of his team’s games. To once again put this in perspective, this was the first time only one player has played every game for his team since before 1960. I stopped looking back year by year at that point because I was starting to find conflicting data, but my point has already been made.

1. Joe Mauer was the 2009 AL MVP, but no player had a larger effect on whether his team won or loss than B.J. Upton. Don’t believe me? Check out the stats:

Games AVG HR RBI SB OPS
Joe Mauer Twins W 74 .377 15 62 1 1.077
Twins L 64 .352 13 34 3 .974
B.J. Upton Rays W 78 .318 11 47 28 .906
Rays L 66 .147 0 8 14 .414

With zero HR and only eight RBI, Upton was far from the best player in the AL, but perhaps he was the most valuable.

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The Courtroom: Upton v. McCutchen

By on January 31, 2010 | Comments { 6 }

Cases already heard:

Cabrera v. Fielder

All rise! Court is now in session.

In our second case we have the Plaintiff, Mr. Melvin Emmanuel “B.J.” Upton, vs. the Defendant, Mr. Andrew McCutchen. Mr. Upton claims that after a down season in 2009, he is being wrongfully overlooked in drafts. We have George Fitopoulos arguing for Mr. Upton and Bryan Curley arguing on the behalf of Mr. McCutchen. Let’s get it on!

Opening Statements

George says:

There’s no way to sugarcoat it; if you bought into B.J. Upton last season your team was screwed from day one. It wasn’t pretty as he posted career worsts in important hitting categories such as batting average (.241), on-base percentage (.312), walks (57), BABIP (.310), and line drive percentage (15.4) in just his third full season as a pro. It was an all-around disaster of a season for Upton, and those who bought into the hype created by his power surge in the 2008 playoffs paid dearly for it. However, a down 2009 season doesn’t mean he cannot salvage what little fantasy value he has left. Remember, he still managed to steal 42 bases in 2009 despite those low on-base numbers.

Upton’s track record suggests that 2009 was an unlucky one for him, and he should have much more success getting on base this season. His .310 BABIP was awful considering his career averages and the type of speed he brings to the game, and if it returns to his more normal level of .350, his batting average (and other categories) would rise significantly.

Bryan says:

Drafted in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft, McCutchen is a top prospect that has risen steadily through the Pirates’ minor league system. He parlayed his success at lower levels into quick results in the Majors using a disciplined eye and good contact rates to become a pesky leadoff batter. In only 108 games last season, McCutchen scored 74 runs, stole 22 bases, batted .286, and even hit 12 HR with 54 RBI. Those results, projected over 150 games, come out to 103/.286/17/75/31. Having already produced similar numbers in the minors, McCutchen is clearly on the brink of becoming a coveted fantasy player.

Arguments

George says:

By looking at Upton’s 2009 batted ball numbers, I can see exactly where he went wrong. For one, his line drive percentage was a very uncharacteristic 15.4 percent, which is almost four points lower than his average from 2006-2008. Also, Upton’s approach at the plate was far from patient as he swung at a career-high 19.5 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, which led to a BB% of under 10.0 (9.1%) for the first time in his three full seasons as a pro. All of this led to a low .310 BABIP, which obviously affected his batting average and other subsequent categories. I would say there is a better chance for him to return to (or at least approach) his 2007-2008 form rather than mimic that of 2009 because his career numbers in both the minor and major leagues suggest that he is a speedy guy who knows how to get on base and hit for a decent average. The only real unknown is his power, which shouldn’t be an issue here because he will hit at least 12 home runs, the same ballpark that McCutchen is in.

So my argument is you generally should believe Upton’s floor to be around 75/.270/12/60/40. The big difference between Upton and McCutchen is that Upton has proven he can do it at the pro-level for more than a season and over 140+ games, while McCutchen has only had a successful 108 games in his entire career. A lot of people might think they are going the safer route by picking McCutchen over the unpredictable Upton, but that is not the case here. Upton should work to fix what plagued him last season and will go back to being a respectable fantasy player with major upside. It’s easy to forget that this five-year pro is only 25 years old.

Bryan says:

I won’t sit here and try to make excuses for why McCutchen will steal 40 bases. Barring an unforeseen turn of events, it’s not going to happen. But, given McCutchen’s stolen base totals last season and his track record in the minors, 30 seems like a good estimate.

The real advantage McCutchen has over Upton is his consistent batting average. He was a career .286 hitter in the minors who only once hit below .283, and in his first season with the Pirates he picked up right where he left off with an average of, you guessed it, .286. Upton was able to maintain a good batting average in the minors as well, but in parts of five Major League seasons (including his three full seasons), he’s a career .266 hitter, only once batting above .273.

How does McCutchen manage to be so consistent? It’s really quite simple; he plays within himself. Yeah, that’s one of those phrases High School coaches use on their 120-pound, ego-driven players to teach them not to swing for the fences every at-bat, but it has real significance in McCutchen’s case. He knows he isn’t a big slugger so he makes contact with a lot of pitches (90.0 Z-Contact%) and doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls (39.1 FB%, 1.08 GB:FB ratio).

That kind of talent and discipline prevents the large statistical variances we see other players have from season to season. At only 23 years old, McCutchen is growing into a more polished and powerful hitter (increasing ISOs from 2007-2009), and he’s already had just as many successful MLB seasons as Upton has.

Closing Statements

George says:

It’s true that if you are going to draft Upton, you will have to have some faith that he will rebound from an awful 2009 season. I believe that he has too many skills to hit .241 again and the Tampa Bay Rays have a much better offense around Upton for him to succeed, and he’s shown what he is capable of, which is getting on base at a very good rate and stealing bases. McCutchen may be the sexier pick because he is a prospect who showed good progress in his first season, but let’s not forget that Upton is just 25 years old himself and not some 35-year old player on the back nine of his career. It’s too early to close the book on B.J. Upton.

Bryan says:

Mr. Upton’s counsel would like to have you believe his client has been successful longer in the Majors than Mr. McCutchen, but that just isn’t the case. Other than his 2007, which he has twice since tried to reproduce and has failed both times, do any of his other seasons scream success?

After a down 2008, Upton fans said that 2009 would be the year. Instead, he fell even further. Sure, Upton is going to improve on 2009. He has to, right? Even when he does, even when he gets his BABIP back up from .310 (already pretty solid), will that push his batting average any higher than the mid-.270s? And why do we need to assume he’ll hit more than 12 home runs? He has only averaged 10 over the last two seasons.

Given McCutchen’s seamless transition from the minors to the Majors (something Upton cannot say), and his upward-trending standard statistics (HR, SB) and peripherals (HR/AB, OPS), why would anyone expect a regression from last season’s stats? In short, there is little reason to believe McCutchen won’t continue to improve upon what he’s done over the last several seasons. Don’t think of it as closing the book on Upton; think of it as opening the book on McCutchen.

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