In fantasy leagues it’s tough to gauge the value of these players. Managers tend to fear their deficiencies in drafts, causing the players’ ADPs to fall below where they’ll likely end the season ranked. Take Upton and Young for example. Upton finished last year as the 41st-ranked player in fantasy, but this year his ADP is 68. Young ranked 99th last year but right now his ADP is 125.

Heck, even Ryan Roberts finished last season with 19 homers, 18 steals and an overall rank of 106, but this season his ADP is 197. Those homers and steals are completely repeatable and he has a starting job, but people are scared of taking on that .249 average. And what about Ben Zobrist? He batted just .269 last year but hit 20 homers, stole 19 bases and ranked 40th overall. Why is his ADP 83?

Espinosa seems like the outlier. Last season he hit 21 homers, stole 17 bases and batted .236 en route to a 147 ranking. This year his ADP is 150. So, while this question technically asks about Espinosa, he just serves as the poster boy for an entire class of undervalued players (though oddly enough he’s the only one being properly valued, go figure). The fact of the matter is regardless of what a player’s stats are, their end-of-season rank is a pure evaluation of how good they were that season to fantasy owners.

If I told you there was a player available at 83rd overall in your draft this spring who would finish the year ranked 40th, wouldn’t you take him? He could bat .269 with 20 homers and 19 steals or he could bat .269 with 39 homers and no steals. I’m still taking that player.

Note: In actuality, and assuming runs/RBI/average remains equals, 43 homers and zero steals is the fantasy equivalent of 20 homers and 19 steals since steals are worth more than homers per unit value. And in case you were curious zero homers and 35 steals is the equivalent at the other end of the spectrum. Of course, more homers tends to yield more runs/RBI since they directly impact one another, but I digress.

While the industry is busy undervaluing these players, you can take them and turn a profit. You can always find the other class undervalued guys who contribute very little in terms of homers and steals but provide a great average and are systematically disregarded as well. This season that class of player includes the following:

• Michael Young (2011 rank: 44/2012 ADP: 71)
• Ichiro Suzuki (78/105)
• Billy Butler (92/123)
• Derek Jeter (95/126)
• Yadier Molina (140/181)
• Todd Helton (152/197)
• Jemile Weeks (163 in just 97 games/154)
• Jon Jay (223/293)

There are two things I can guarantee almost every single fantasy league champion will have on their roster at the end of this season: superstars (read: early round picks that stayed healthy) and plenty of guys who outperformed their ADPs.

With my season now over, it’s time to begin looking ahead to 2012. We’ll do that today by ranking the top 100 keepers for the 2012 season, starting with players 81 through 100 who you can see below.

Players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Check back tomorrow for players 61 through 80 as we count down the top 100.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

• Keepers 1-20
• Keepers 21-40
• Keepers 41-60
• Keepers 61-80

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

Rank	Player	Age	Position	Professor's Note
81	Michael Pineda	23	SP	Age-22 season was better than Felix's; let's see how he follows it up
82	Stephen Drew	29	SS	6th among SS in 2010 doing a little bit of everything in the process
83	Ervin Santana	29	SP	Tantalizingly talented and put it all together (again) in the second half
84	Jimmy Rollins	33	SS	Turns 33 in November and clearly in decline; perennial injury risk
85	Howie Kendrick	28	1B/2B/OF	As streaky as they come; new bests in R, HR and maybe SB in '11
86	Nelson Cruz	31	OF	Could be great if he stayed healthy, but hammies hamper him
87	Carlos Santana	26	C/1B	Great walk rate and elite power at C
88	Daniel Hudson	25	SP	Lived up to the hype in 2011 by exhibiting great command
89	Michael Morse	30	1B/OF	Morse was a preseason sleeper; now we expect him to hit
90	Jeremy Hellickson	24	SP	It's hard to argue with his rookie stats but beware his ultra low BABIP
91	Adrian Beltre	32	3B	Not over the hill yet and does everything but run at shallow position
92	Brandon Phillips	30	2B	Best LD% since 2004; I'm not at all buying near-.300 BA
93	Ichiro Suzuki	38	OF	Has age caught up with him? .296 BABIP (career .352) means not yet
94	Brett Gardner	28	OF	One of the elite basestealers in a great offense
95	B.J. Upton	27	OF	Potential for 60+ SB/HR combined
96	Ian Kennedy	27	SP	Not as good as his '11 W/ERA indicate but '10 was solid, too
97	Angel Pagan	30	OF	A lock for 30+ SB with potential to add in 80+ R and a .280+ BA
98	Freddie Freeman	22	1B	.850 OPS in the second half of 2011 at just 22 years old
99	Josh Beckett	31	SP	Improved cutter has made the difference but there's risk here
100	Shaun Marcum	30	SP	An injury risk but his ERA and WHIP will continue to be borderline elite

It’s always hard to sort out through all of the trade talk, but maybe I can give you a little comfort in what otherwise will be a hectic week and a half. Let’s start with the most obvious potential move of 2011:

Carlos Beltran leaves New York, Jose Reyes doesn’t

Result: Lucas Duda starts regularly for the rest of the season

Why it happens: This is pretty much a given, right? It makes too much sense for the Mets not to trade away Carlos Beltran, who will be a free agent after this year. The Mets can’t offer him arbitration thanks to a clause in his contract so should they lose him in free agency, they will not get any compensation. They need to cash in on this amazing comeback season.

The Mets have already said that they won’t trade Jose Reyes so I guess we’ll believe them.

Fantasy outlook: Well, for one he will be leaving Citi Field (plus) and possibly the NL East (double-plus). He currently plays in a division with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Jordan Zimmermann. He will not shed a tear.

As for Lucas Duda, he is currently playing full-time at first base, but when David Wright returns he will be moved to the outfield full-time. He can provide some sneaky power in deeper leagues, but I wouldn’t worry about him in shallow leagues.

Heath Bell won’t get traded

Result: Nothing changes

Why it doesn’t happen: The trade  market is littered with relief pitchers and I find it hard to believe that any team will pay the steep price to acquire Heath Bell‘s services. The Padres will get two first round picks if they let him walk so they need an offer that includes two very good prospects.

Bell has been linked to teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and the Cardinals, but why wouldn’t those teams pay a lesser price for Mike Adams, Koji Uehara or Kyle Farnsworth (not the Rays obviously) instead?

Fantasy outlook: There’s really nothing to react to in this situation. Even if Bell were to be traded, there is no way he goes to a team where he isn’t the full-time closer because no team would pay that steep of a price for a set up man. Except the Yankees. If he does end up leaving the Padres, the obvious fill ins would be Adams (if he’s still there) and then Chad Qualls or Luke Gregerson.

B.J. Upton and James Shields will be traded

Result: Desmond Jennings finally gets called up and maybe we see a Matt Moore sighting

Why it happens: The Rays are in a very unique situation. They have been competitive for four years now, but they still don’t draw much attention in their home town. What this does is allow them to make bold moves because they don’t have to worry about any backlash from public perception. What, are they going to get even fewer fans?

Trading James Shields makes sense because his value is at the highest point it will ever be and even though he has friendly team-options for the next three years ($28 million total) he’s not irreplaceable. The Rays have plenty of young arms ready to contribute.

As for B.J. Upton, the truth is that he’s better in fantasy than he is in reality. His .318 OBP is embarrasing and the Rays could easily replace that with Jennings.

Fantasy outlook: Shields has been linked to the Reds and Tigers in potential deals. Even though he would be leaving the pitcher-friendly Trop, leaving the AL East will counter any negative park factors.

With Upton, a change of scenery can only be a good thing. Maybe he gets motivated for two months and goes on a tear? Either way, while the counting numbers are there, Upton could help a lot by upping that batting average a bit and start getting on base more.

With the new roster space the Rays will be forced to call up Desmond Jennings ending one of the more frustrating two months of my life fantasy owners’ lives. At 24, he may no longer be considered a prospect, but he can steals bases in bunches in the majors and has a little bit of power to go along with it. Matt Moore dazzled scouts in his one inning of work at the Future’s game during the All-Star break and the prospect could be called upon if the Rays don’t slip at all in the standings. He would be worth a flier in all leagues and is a must-own even now in dynasty or keeper leagues.

Ubaldo Jimenez will not be traded

Result: Business as usual

Why it doesn’t happen: Can we stop with these ridiculous rumors already? The Rockies just invested $237.75 million in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez and they are going to trade away their best pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez, who is owed $4.2 million next season and then a total of $13.75 million in team options in 2013-14? C’mon now.

Fantasy outlook: Jimenez has turned his season around and you should continue to treat him as a top 20 starting pitcher in fantasy.

Colby Rasmus should get traded, but will he?

Result: Undetermined

Why it should happen: The Cardinals have the deal right there, they just need to pull the trigger. Colby Rasmus for Upton and a pitcher. Cardinals get that extra push for 2011, while the Rays replace the soon-to-be-expensive Upton for the cheap Rasmus.

Why it won’t happen: Screw it, he has to get traded. It makes too much sense! It’s a well-known fact that he asked to be traded last year, which ruffled some feathers in the clubhouse. LaRussa has also had his problems with the young outfielder so why would they keep him around?

Fantasy outlook: It’s clear that Rasmus has the talents to be a great contributor in fantasy. When he’s in his right mind, he gets on base regularly with walks, can swipe his fair share of bases and also has 25-homer potential. It’s undetermined whether Rasmus absolutely wants out of St. Louis, but the signs are there and he may never reach his full potential in a Cardinals uniform.

That’s right, despite the bottom of my screen reading “Gooooooooooooooogle,” I was only able to pick out a couple of articles that touted Stubbs as a great value this season. “Grey” from Razzball.com put it best in his Stubbs post, “To think a guy who went 22/30 is a sleeper is laughable in some leagues.”

It’s true. Stubbs may have had the quietest, 20/30 season and it’s because he did most of his damage in the last two months of the season, and some of you may have checked out by then. From August 1, Stubbs batted .308, smashed nine home runs and stole 12 bases in 169 at-bats. Not too shabby.

But back to the problem on hand, how can someone with that kind of power/speed get  no respect amongst the fantasy community? Yahoo! has him ranked 19th among outfielders and he went 81st overall (ahead of his teammate Jay Bruce) in ESPN’s first mock draft. Yet he is being drafted 153rd overall in mock drafts and even Tristan Cockhroft has him 154th in his early top 250 rankings. I’m going to stop before I get angry.

It was just a couple of years ago we were drafting Grady Sizemore and now we have Stubbs, who at 26, is just entering his power prime of his career. In Sizemore’s age-26 season he hit 33 home runs and swiped 38 bases and while that is a very generous projection for Stubbs, I think I’ve driven home the point that Sizemore was a first round pick after that season and Stubbs is going in the 15th round. He screams value.

Now, Stubbs doesn’t come without his faults as his .255 batting average leaves a lot to be desired. He has too many swinging strikes (11.7%) which is why he had the third highest strikeout percentage (32.7) among qualifying hitters. The other two? Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. However, if I had to choose one category for my hitter to be weak in it would be batting average.

What Stubbs brings to the table is a very unique power/speed combo (only three hitters went 20/30 last year) and good R/RBI opportunities in what should be a very good Reds’ offense. Keep in mind that B.J. Upton (83), Corey Hart (88), Delmon Young (93), Curtis Granderson (94), Colby Rasmus (95) and Sizemore (99) are all being drafted five-to-six rounds ahead of Stubbs in mock drafts.

Do yourselves a favor and don’t forget about him on draft day.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.263 BA | 95 R | 26 HR | 73 RBI | 37 SB

They say the first step to recovery is acceptance.

There is a popular term among the fantasy universe, “fantasy kryptonite,” which refers to a player who burns you year after year. Well Upton is that guy for me.

For years, Bossman Junior has faced ridiculous (just like the name I referred him as) expectations and he just keeps disappointing. With the subtractions of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, the Rays need Upton to step up this year more than ever.

The biggest knock on Upton is his batting average. As of now, his career mark stands at .260, but it has been in a steep decline since he hit .300 in his rookie season. Now, let’s get something straight—Upton isn’t a .300 hitter unless he can repeat his .396 BABIP from 2007. That’s not happening, but a .270 average isn’t out of reach.

Trying to make sense of Upton’s batting average woes will make your head spin. Among qualifying hitters who posted a BABIP over .300 in 2009, Upton had the second-lowest batting average (.241). The same held true last year, except his .237 average ranked last. That’s a product of his free-swinging style, but at some point his luck has to change. Right? Right?

Last year was Upton’s attempt at the perfect storm of bad plate discipline. Take a look at his numbers taken from his FanGraphs player page: (click the image to make it bigger)

To summarize the table, Upton faced fewer pitches in the strike zone (48.9 Zone%), swung at more pitches outside of the strike zone (25.3 O-Swing%) and made contact on fewer balls outside of the strike zone (55.2 O-Contact%). This all led to his career-high 12 percent swinging strikes and a 30.6 strikeout percentage. I’m considering 2010 his rock-bottom as a hitter.

What I see in Upton is a player who is just about to enter his power-prime and is coming off  a season where he hit 18 home runs, despite all the negatives in his approach. In the final two months of last year, Upton slugged 10 home runs and stole 14 bases with a .255 batting average. I don’t have to remind you that players who end the season strong can carry it over into the next season (i.e. Jose Bautista).

Upton has hit 20 home runs in a season and stolen 40+ bases in three consecutive seasons. Upton’s power is trending in the right direction as he has dramatically cut down on the ground balls the last three seasons (from 50.5% to 39.7%) and his HR/FB rate increased to 11 percent last season. Color me optimistic but I see a 20/40 season in Upton’s near future.

So yes, I am accepting that I am a B.J. Upton apologist, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to stop anytime soon.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.254 | 92 R | 21 HR | 63 RBI | 45 SB

Tier 1

Carl Crawford (BOS), Ryan Braun (MIL), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Matt Holliday (STL), Josh Hamilton (TEX), Matt Kemp (LAD)

Not a lot wrong with this group as Crawford and Braun are sure-fire first rounders. … Gonzalez probably won’t hit .336 again, but his power and speed (34 HR/26 SB) are here to stay. … Holliday will get you Braun’s stats across the board, but 10-15 picks later. … The tier ends with a couple of questions marks in Hamilton‘s health and Kemp‘s work ethic. Even with Kemp having a “down” year, he still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.

Tier 2

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Justin Upton (ARI), Jason Heyward (ATL), Jayson Werth (WAS), Alex Rios (CHW), Jose Bautista (TOR), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Hunter Pence (HOU), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Andre Ethier (LAD), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS),  Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

You can bank on a .300 AVG, 20 HR and 20 SB from Choo, and if the Indians ever surround him with good hitters he will eclipse 180+ R/RBI. … In his third season, Upton regressed a bit towards his rookie form, but he is still only 23 years old so I wouldn’t panic yet. … Heyward is quickly becoming one of the most beloved young hitters over the last decade because of his great plate discipline (14.6 BB%). … It will be interesting to see what Werth does without the Phillies’ offense surrounding him. … After a disappointing 2009 season, Rios came back and finally eclipsed the 20/20 mark everyone was waiting for. …  You can read my take on Jose Bautista‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value. … Ellsbury should be an elite contributor in runs and steals if he bats first for the Red Sox, and he’s a good candidate to hit near .300. … No need to reiterate how I feel about Ichiro‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value.

Tier 3

Mike Stanton (FLA), Jay Bruce (CIN), Shane Victorino (PHI), Chris Young (ARI), Colby Rasmus (STL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), Ben Zobrist (TB), Corey Hart (MIL), Torii Hunter (LAA), Curtis Granderson (NYY), Delmon Young (MIN), B.J. Upton (TB), Nick Markakis (BAL), Bobby Abreu (LAA), Jason Bay (NYM), Angel Pagan (NYM), Adam Jones (BAL)

Stanton‘s power is out-of-this-world and if he can cut down on the Ks (34.3%) and raise that AVG (.259) he can be a top-10 option by year’s end. … It was nice to see Bruce stay healthy for an entire season. Don’t be surprised if he reaches 30 home runs this year. … The Flyin’ Hawaiian traded his batting average for a little extra power last year. Here’s to hoping he realized that it was a mistake. … Look for Stubbs to be a great value in the middle rounds as his 22 HR and 30 SB aren’t easy to find elsewhere. … Hart had a career-year in 2010 and while he didn’t contribute much with his seven steals, I’ll take the 31 HR and 192 R/RBI. … If you read our study on the importance of lineup slots it should be no surprise that Granderson had a down year batting at the bottom of the Yankees’ order. … Bryan Curley gave his thoughts earlier on why Bay is a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

Tier 4

Juan Pierre (CHW), Vernon Wells (LAA), Grady Sizemore (CLE), Denard Span (MIN), Carlos Lee (HOU), Nick Swisher (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHW), Michael Bourn (HOU), Brett Gardner (NYY), Lance Berkman (STL), Jason Kubel (MIN)

Pierre contributes in steals (68) and runs (96), but that’s about it. … Sizemore can still be a useful fantasy contributor so don’t completely disregard him. He is only two years removed from a 30/30 season and has been plagued by injuries the last two seasons. … I expect Span to raise his batting average back to .290-.300, but he brings no power to the table. … Swisher enjoyed himself a fine season in 2010 and while the power (29 HR and 180 R/RBI) is legit the average (.288) might be harder to replicate. Then again, he did change his approach last season.

Tier 5

Austin Jackson (DET), Raul Ibanez (PHI), Magglio Ordonez (DET), Dexter Fowler (COL), Rajai Davis (TOR), Travis Snider (TOR), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Andres Torres (SF), Julio Borbon (TEX), Manny Ramirez (TB), Jose Tabata (PIT), Marlon Byrd (CHC), Chris Coghlan (FLA), J.D.Drew (BOS)

Jackson had a ridiculous .396 BABIP and still only managed a .293 batting average. Not a good sign. … The term post-hype sleeper applies here with Snider as he should get the starting right field job. Last year he hit 14 home runs in just 319 at-bats. … In 2010, Borbon stole four fewer bases in 289 more at-bats. He’s going to have to step up the running if he is going to have any fantasy value. … We have Ramirez‘s projection covered in our 2011 Tampa Bay Rays preview. … Tabata is only 22-years old and is quickly becoming one of Pittsburgh’s many young, bright stars.

1) Can you tell us what is going on with B.J. Upton? Personally, I get sucked into believing in him every year and each time he disappoints. Is it time to stop believing or is there hope that he will realize his true potential and dazzle us all?

I think Bossman Junior gets a bad rap for three reasons. First, he was taken No. 2 overall (and functionally No. 1 since the Pirates wasted the pick before him on Brian Bullington, who is presumably managing a Sbarro somewhere) so he was saddled with unrealistic expectations. Second, his failure as a shortstop seems to hang over his head even though he has turned into one of the best center fielders in the game. Finally, his incredible athleticism, and long-stride running style, makes it appear as though he isn’t hustling all the time.

In the end, B.J. Upton is a very good, but not great, ballplayer. He is good for 3-4 wins per season, will probably steal close to 40 bases, hit 10-15 home runs and take your breath away three times in centerfield.  That probably matches his ultimate potential.

2) The Rays will have two big-time prospects set to make a significant impact on the team this year in OF Desmond Jennings and RHP Jeremy Hellickson. Which one are you more excited about and who will have a bigger impact on the team in 2011? When can we expect Jennings to join the Rays in the majors?

Jeremy Hellickson won’t just be the best rookie in the Rays’ clubhouse in 2011, he will be the best rookie in all of baseball. The Rays traded Matt Garza for a boatload of prospects that fill organizational needs in part because Hellickson’s 2010 cameo didn’t just prove that he was ready for the bigs, it showed the Rays that a full season of Hellickson in 2011 may be an improvement over Garza in 2011. Add Hellickson to a budding Wade Davis (who some scouts say has an upside akin to that of Garza—really) and the Rays suddenly have the best young rotation in baseball.

As for DJ, the addition of Johnny Damon guarantees that he starts the season taking shots at the free steak in Durham Bulls Athletic Park, but that was probably a foregone conclusion before Damon. Jennings will definitely spend at least 4 weeks in triple-A—to offset the 4 weeks he spent in the big leagues in 2010. That ensures that the Rays don’t lose a year of control on Jennings in 2011 and gives him more regular at bats. They have taken this tack with other budding prospects including franchise cornerstone Evan Longoria who started 2008′s World Series season in Triple-A. My best guess is that Jennings joins the club in June to play part of a platoon after the Rays experiment with their new outfield pieces.

3) With Jason Bartlett gone, Reid Brignac will assume the starting shortstop role. Not many people know about Brignac so could you tell us a little something about him and what expectations you have for him this season?

There was a time when Rays’ fans anxiously awaited the era of Brignac and Longoria on the left side of the infield at Tropicana Field. Then, Longoria’s star rose more quickly than Brignac’s who needed more minor-league seasoning. The Rays acquired Jason Bartlett as a stop-gap solution only to see Bartlett have a career year that coincided with their 2008 pennant.

But, Bartlett regressed in 2010 and Brignac showed hints of his potential in a part-time role. Reid is not only an above-average defensive shortstop, he also hits for more power than you’d expect from a player of his size. Brignac will likely be hot-and-cold in 2011. I suspect he will have some early success, because he is a good hitter with a solid swing, but will hit some rough patches as the league and its scouts discover his tendencies and weaknesses.

4) No Rafael Soriano. No Dan Wheeler. No Joaquin Benoit. No Grant Balfour. Who the heck is going to close for Tampa Bay in 2011?

Um. Well. Yes. Outside of Andy Sonnanstine and Kyle Farnsworth (and bullpen catcher Scott “Killer” Cursi), we don’t even know who will be sharing the candy bag in the bullpen much less who will “close.”  There is a chance the Rays will add one or two more arms on minor league contracts closer to pitchers-and-catchers (they resurrected Joaquin Benoit with a minor-league contract on February 15, 2010) and there have been rumors that the Rays will make a trade for a closer. I think, however, that the Rays intend to re-invent the wheel when it comes to late-inning bullpen use and use several guys at the end of games. There is a good chance we see Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, Farnsworth (and even J.P. Howell when he returns from injury in June) late in games in 2011.

5) Manny Ramirez’s return to the AL East makes for great headlines, but will he get enough at-bats at DH during the season to make an impact?

I am always hesitant to make playing-time predictions given Joe Maddon’s penchant for tinkering with the lineup (he used the same lineup on consecutive days a whopping three times in 2010).  But, the Rays signed Manny to DH and, looking at the Rays’ projected 25-man roster, I don’t see anyone taking DH at-bats away from him. Manny’s health is the only thing that will limit his playing time in 2011 (because, at $2MM, if he doesn’t produce the Rays will not feel compelled to keep him around). That said, if Manny can stay healthy, he is likely to see more pitches to hit than he has in several years. Manny will probably hit behind Evan Longoria and should get the chance to prove he still has the bat speed when teams pitch around Longo.

There’s a post written by Jack Moore at RotoHardball that covers the importance of lineup slots in a baseball player’s fantasy value. It shows the following chart, which tracked the average plate appearances per game at each lineup slot:

1. 4.83
2. 4.72
3. 4.61
4. 4.49
5. 4.39
6. 4.26
7. 4.14
8. 4.02
9. 3.90

(Note: Stats are from Tom Tango’s “The Book” and are compiled from 1998-2002 in the American League only.)

While there might not be a huge difference from batting third to fifth, dropping from second to sixth, or leadoff to ninth is a dramatic change in plate appearances when stretched over a full 162-game season.

In Moore’s post, he explains the effect lineup slot had on Curtis Granderson, who after batting leadoff in Detroit for four years, spent most of his time in the seventh or eighth slot last season with the Yankees. A lot of experts predicted Granderson to follow his 30-homer season in Detroit with 35-40 home runs in the new Yankee Stadium, but the odds were against him from the start as he was facing far fewer opportunities. Over 150 games, the drop from first to eighth is a difference of 121 plate appearances and not coincidentally, Granderson’s home runs dropped from 30 to a “mere” 24.

Another example is Ian Kinsler, who in 2009 posted a career-best 30 home runs, 86 RBI and 31 steals despite hitting for a career-low .253 batting average and posting a career-worst .327 OBP. One reason for this is because he stayed relatively healthy, playing 143 games, but also he spent most of his time in the leadoff spot and amassed 640 plate appearances.

In 2010, Kinsler had a better year with his averages (.286 BA, .382 OBP), but his counting stats suffered as his 162-game pace of 14 home runs was less than half of his 144-game output just a year before. Kinsler split his time batting third, fifth and sixth in the lineup and his 162-game pace for 648 plate appearances was only four more than what he faced in 144 games as a leadoff hitter.

With so much player movement in the off-season let’s take a look at some situations you should keep your eye on.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, and Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox

Terry Francona has come out and said that he wants to get Crawford near the top of his order so there shouldn’t be too much worry here. Crawford projects as a second or third hitter in this Boston lineup, however, Ellsbury is a more interesting case. Francona admitted that his best lineup is with Ellsbury leading off, but he hinted that he may not start there right away. If Ellsbury starts the year batting ninth, make sure to temper your expectations as the drop from top to bottom is a difference of 140 plate appearances over 150 games.

John Buck, C, Florida Marlins

Fresh off signing a 3-year, $15 million contract, Buck wasn’t brought in to Florida to bat at the bottom of the order. Last year, he spent 85 games in the bottom third of the Blue Jays lineup, but the Marlins don’t quite boast the same potent offense that Toronto does. Look for Buck to bat a little higher and add more plate appearances in the process.

The Tampa Bay Rays

With the departure of Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Carlos Pena, you can expect plenty of new opportunity for new batters to thrive at the top of that lineup. Ben Zobrist could benefit from a more steady role in the number two hole with his ability to get on base. Would the Rays plug in rookie OF Desmond Jennings in the lead off role right from the start? Maybe perennial heart-breaker B.J. Upton will get another shot at it next year. Keep an eye on sleeper candidate Sean Rodriguez who showed flashes of brilliance in the month of June where he hit .295 with four homers, 17 RBI and six steals.

Players go through the same streaks of luck, except they can be harder to diagnose just by looking at your standard stat sheet. If you’ve be handcuffed by Victor Martinez‘s poor start, I feel your pain. The guy is hitting the ball, but he’s not getting any of those breaks.

But before you jump ship on some of this season’s early strugglers, make sure their slumps aren’t just the result of a few bloops that didn’t go their way. Here’s a list of a few players (by position) that will soon see success without having to make major changes at the plate. For these guys, the only problem is that their stat lines don’t represent how they’ve actually been performing.

C - Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox

2010: .239/.300/.326, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 10 R

Martinez has been one of the Red Sox’ many problems during their 12-14 start, but his struggles should soon come to an end. His BABIP is just .247 (career .311) but his LD% is 2.7 points higher than his career average. He’s not striking out often at all – once every 15.3 AB – and he has the fifth best contact rate among the 267 batters with at least 50 plate appearances. Once Jacoby Ellsbury returns to the top of the Boston order and the team breaks out of its season-long funk (which they appeared to do in a 17-8 route of the Angels last night), Martinez should again look like one of the game’s elite catching options.

1B – Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees

2010: .181/.325/.298, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R

Did I really have to tell you Teixeira would do better than his current .181 average? No, but his struggles aren’t all on him. Teixeira is currently sporting a sickening .211 BABIP (career .306) to go along with the same mid-19 LD% he’s had for five of the last six seasons. His contact rate is the highest it’s ever been in his career and his walk rate is up, too. Other than the BABIP, Teixeira’s biggest problem is his HR/FB rate, which sits at a lowly 7.1 percent. To put that into perspective, he’s only once had a HR/FB rate lower than 17.8 percent during his seven-year career. It should be noted that he’s hitting more ground balls than usual right now and Yankee Stadium isn’t nearly as home run friendly as it was last season, but Teixeira is due for a turnaround very soon.

2B – Mark DeRosa, San Francisco Giants

2010: .214/.321/.286, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R

In the first 10 years of his career, DeRosa had never topped 13 home runs or 74 RBI. Since 2008 he’s averaged 22 home runs and 91 RBI. Where did that guy go? Like with the other two we’ve looked at, DeRosa is currently suffering from a low BABIP (.246, career .310) despite a good LD% (20.7) and better-than-ever contact. There are some questions surrounding DeRosa, mainly how the move to San Francisco’s ballpark and lineup affect his numbers, but he should be doing better than this. Right now he’s hitting way too many ground balls (50.0%), while his HR/FB rate is the second-lowest of his career…even lower than when he was hitting 13 and fewer homers.

3B – Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves

2010: .206/.372/.353, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 11 R, 2 SB

Jones’ .372 OBP is astounding to me. How do you hit .206 but get on base at that rate? A career-best 20.9 percent walk rate ought to do the trick. And you know what? His OBP would be higher if it weren’t for a nearly unheard of .218 BABIP (career .316). Jones isn’t striking out much more than his career average, and his LD% is actually better than his career average to this point, so what gives? Well, he wouldn’t be in this article if his numbers made a whole lot of sense. Jones’ contact rate is a little low right now, but with a LD% and strikeout rate within his career ranges that isn’t a big issue. His HR/FB rate is down a few percentage points, but at this stage of his career that isn’t unexpected. What you can still get put of Jones is a good average, OBP and RBI, and those will soon come around. It is worth noting that Jones is seeing more change-ups and curveballs in lieu of fastballs this season, but he’s rated as a plus hitter against those pitches for the duration of his career so it shouldn’t be a big issue.

SS – Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves

2010: .215/.295/.266, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 2 SB

Currently rehabbing an injury, this has been a down season for a player whose career has been trending up. I’ll start off by saying there are some signs that luck isn’t the only big factor at play here because Escobar’s LD% is an abysmal 11.6 percent, but his .243 BABIP (career .321) is still pretty bad. His walks are slightly up, his strikeouts are slightly down and his contact is better than any other year, but something needs to be done about those line drives. Still, he shouldn’t be doing this poorly.

OF – Jason Kubel, Minnesota Twins

2010: .203/.344/.304, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 7 R

I don’t think anyone really expected 28 home runs and 103 RBI again, but this is disappointing. Kubel’s BABIP is a low .246 (career .302), he’s walking at an absurd 17.7 percent rate and his LD% is up from last season. His GB:FB ratio is dropping for the fourth straight season, which doesn’t necessarily bode well for his average, but it isn’t a steep drop off. The one factor we can’t take into account is how the new Target Field will play. Indications were that it was a hitter’s park, but remember it’s April in Minnesota. Kubel’s 8.0 percent HR/FB rate should increase, perhaps back to the 16.3 percent rate he had last season.

OF – Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Angels

2010: .250/.313/.409, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 11 R

Rivera is performing better than anyone we’ve looked at so far, but he’s capable of 25 home runs and 80-plus RBI and we’re not seeing that player. He’s never been a guy with a high BABIP (.286 career) but his .257 mark this season is a little low considering his LD% and strikeout rate are in line with career norms. The biggest problem is the 9.4 percent HR/FB rate, which hasn’t dipped below 10.7 percent since his rookie season and usually sits in the mid-13s. That little extra pop should be the difference.

OF – B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays

2010: .242/.330/.440, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 19 R, 6 SB

Upton is actually having a pretty solid season aside from the batting average, but I thought it was important to address that since it has been plummeting for a few years now. While the .242 mark seems expected given his .241 average last season and .273 average in 2008, it really should be higher. Upton is enduring a .273 BABIP, which seems only slightly unlucky, but he has a career .338 BABIP. His LD% is nearly identical to his rates in 2006 and 2008 when he had BABIPs of .313 and .344, respectively, so there is a lot of room for improvement there without Upton having to change his approach. His contact rates are a rather low as he’s swinging and missing at more pitches than ever before, but his resurgence in power is nice. All-in-all, a .270 to .280 average doesn’t seem out of the question with the way he’s playing right now.

Nevertheless, we still saw the closest thing to a complete game shutout from Roy Halladay and a nice MLB debut from first-round pick Mike Leake. Without further delay, let’s delve into what took place Sunday afternoon.

Sunday’s best: Roy Halladay (PHI) – 9 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Sunday’s worst: David Ortiz (BOS)- 0-for-4, 4 K, 5 LOB

Tigers 9, Indians 8

• Travis Hafner has hit safely in five of the Indians six games and has knocked in a run in three straight games. If his shoulder holds up he should be a nice source of cheap power.
• Chris Perez blew his first save of the season but his job is safe for now. … Magglio Ordonez continued his hot hitting by collecting two more hits and knocking in two runs.
• Austin Jackson now has three multi-hit games on the season.
• Justin Verlander pitched poorly for the second consecutive start. Hopefully he’s not feeling the effects of the 240 innings he pitched last year.

Marlins 6, Dodgers 5

• Knuckleballer Charlie Haeger struck out 12 Marlins in six innings, but he did walk four batters. Control will always be a problem for Haeger so he’s still not a matchups play at this point. … Jorge Cantu, who has an RBI in every game this season, drove in five on Sunday and hit his second home run of the season.
• Cameron Maybin is hitting in a very favorable spot in the Marlins lineup. He’s protected by Hanley Ramirez and also has Cantu and Dan Uggla hitting behind him. If he can get on base, expect a lot of runs out of him this year.

Nationals 5, Mets 2

• Josh Willingham belted a homer and drove in five runs. He did have 24 home runs last year in only 427 at bats.
• Jeff Francoeur raised his average to .476 with two hits. Don’t overlook him, after all he did hit .311 with 10 home runs in 75 games for the Mets last year.
• Johan Santana failed to build off of his first start of the season, letting up five runs in five innings while only striking out three batters.

Reds 3, Cubs 1

• Mike Leake, Cincinnati’s first round pick a year ago, pitched pretty well in his major league debut. He pitched 6 2/3 innings, surrendering only one run and striking out five batters. The only blemishes were the seven walks, which is expected from a young pitcher. Don’t rush out to add him yet, but he makes a pretty nice matchups play.
• Geovany Soto’s struggles continue and while the signs have not been encouragins so far, I still like him for a bounce back this year.

Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2

• Shaun Marcum pitched well again for the Jays and if he’s on your waiver wire pick him up now.
• Brian Roberts was not in the lineup for the second straight game and his strained abdominal muscle could force him to the DL.

Yankees 7, Rays 3

• Curtis Granderson collected two more hits and stole his third base of the year. This looks like it could be a monster year for New York’s new center fielder.
• At least A.J. Burnett got the win because he only struck out one batter. You likely won’t see that again from him.
• Tough game for B.J. Upton as he went 0-for-3 and stranded six men on base.
• Jason Bartlett continues to prove he’s a good source of average, runs and stolen bases, however, I’d like to see him repeat last year’s power performance before I fully trust him.

Phillies 2, Astros 1

• Cy, I mean Roy Halladay pitched a complete game letting up no earned runs and striking out eight batters. He will have a better year than Tim Lincecum. Mark it down.
• Roy Oswalt looked good, striking out eight Phillies in six innings and only letting up two runs. He appears healthy at the moment but the injury bug could bite him at any time.

White Sox 5, Twins 4

• Denard Span continues to struggle at the plate but don’t do anything rash like drop him. If you don’t have him maybe send a low-ball offer for him just in case his owner is of the impatient type.
• The criminally underrated Paul Konerko slugged his third home run of the season.
• Gordon Beckham hit his first home run of the season and is poised to take the next step.

Red Sox 8, Royals 6

• Jacoby Ellsbury left the game holding his ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre. X-rays came back negative but expect him to miss the next game or two.
• Speaking of Beltre, he raised his average to .400 with three hits.
• David Ortiz put on the Golden Sombrero Sunday afternoon going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. With Mike Lowell and Jeremy Hermida on the bench, Ortiz doesn’t have as long a leash as he had last year.
• Gil Meche came off the DL and pitched a stinker. Watch him in his next few starts to see if he shows improvement before picking him up.

Rangers 9, Mariners 2

• Franklin Gutierrez continues his hot hitting and should see plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the meat of the Mariners’ lineup.
• Vladimir Guerrero is now batting .500 on the season after another multi-hit game.
• Scott Feldman pitched seven innings again, surrendering only one run and striking out four batters. Last year was not a fluke.

Rockies 4, Padres 2

• Chase Headley had two more hits on Sunday to bring his average up to .440. A former top prospect, Headley looks primed for a breakout season now that he’s back at his familiar position at third base.
• Miguel Olivo hit his second home run of the season and is clearly outperforming Chris Iannetta at this point of the season.

Athletics 9, Angels 4

• Jake Fox got the start at catcher for Oakland. If/when he gets catcher eligibility he is definitely someone to add.
• Dallas Braden didn’t strike out 10 batters this time but he did have a quality start and got the win.
• Brandon Wood went hitless again so look for Maicer Izturis to start stealing some at bats in the immediate future.

Giants 6, Braves 3

• Jason Heyward hit his third home run in his big league career. Let’s face it. This kid is going to be great, but temper your expectations this year and don’t count on 30 home runs or a .300 average in 2010.
• Pablo Sandoval hit his first home run of the season and could approach 30 this year.

Diambacks 15, Pirates 6

• Lastings Milledge batted third for the Pirates and responded with three hits. Reports are that he has learned a lot in the maturity department from Andrew McCutchen and if he continues to show progress, he could become a classic post-hype sleeper.
• Chris Young and Kelly Johnson both hit their third home runs of the season. It looks like these guys are becoming fantasy relevant once again.

Brewers 8, Cardinals 7

• Ryan Ludwick batted second again for the Cardinals as if looks like Tony LaRussa will continue to do this against lefties.
• Albert Pujols hit two more home runs and drove in in four runs. I’m pretty sure he really is a machine. … Rickie Weeks hit his second home run of the season. He is now batting .368 with six runs and four RBI.
• Trevor Hoffman blew his second consecutive save. Although Texas and Baltimore have already made closing changes, Hoffman won’t lose his job considering he is seven saves away from 600. Todd Coffey is next in line for saves if something were to happen to Hoffman.