And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Overall, I tend to like Cockcroft’s rankings, but there are a few players in his top 50 that caught my eye for a number of reasons, and keep in mind when reading either the rankings or my reaction that these ranks only include hitters.

The first guy that stuck out was the first guy listed, Ryan Braun. The Brewers’ star outfielder has had an all-around sensational season, especially with his legs, but right now his .330 average and 31 steals are both career highs, the latter of which shattered his previous career high (20 steals in 2009). With all of that he’s still “just” the fifth-ranked player in fantasy this season. Now, in most cases you’d be pretty excited if your first-overall pick finished fifth on the season, but I have a hard time seeing Braun repeating this year’s numbers across the board. It was just that superb of a season.

I don’t even have Braun as my number one outfielder. That honor is bestowed upon Matt Kemp. Kemp is the second-ranked player this year with a line that blows Braun’s out of the water. He’s the only 40/40 threat in the league and he’s rebounded from a down 2010 season by raising his batting average 73 points to .322. I don’t expect a repeat of this year’s average in 2012, but his career .351 BABIP and 21.5 percent line drive rate tell me a .300-ish season is likely. There is more risk with Kemp, but I think it’s a good risk for the type of production you can get. Cockcroft had Kemp ranked sixth.

I had Jose Bautista ranked first in my 2012 fantasy baseball keeper rankings, but there’s a good chance he falls down that list a few spots by the start of next season. I trust Bautista to put up numbers similar to this year’s and he plays at a shallow fantasy position, but he doesn’t steal enough bases for my liking when you could have some of the many 30/30 threats the first round has to offer.

Alex Gordon checks in at 36 on Cockcroft’s rankings, which I think is a little bit too high. If you could tell me there was a 75 percent chance Gordon would repeat his 2011 season, I’d take him there in a heartbeat, but .303 with 23 home runs and 17 steals can easily become .280 with 18 home runs and 15 steals, and while that’s a valuable season, Gordon is losing his third base eligibility next year and that line becomes replaceable for an outfielder. Plus, can he really repeat the 101 runs he has this year? Eric Hosmer is a nice middle-of-the-order bat in Kansas City, but breakout seasons from Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur helped contribute to Gordon’s runs total. A lot of things have to go right next year for Gordon to have similar value.

Instead of taking Gordon with a fourth or fifth round pick (remember, pitchers aren’t included in Cockcroft’s rankings), I’d rather have Desmond Jennings. I don’t think the 10 homers Jennings has in limited at-bats are a true representation of the production we’ll see in 2012, but he has great plate discipline and he’ll get on base at a very good rate. With his speed that should mean a 30-steal season is the absolute worst we should expect with the potential for a 70-steal year like we saw from Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009.

One ranking that I think Cockcroft got very wrong was Andrew McCutchen at 18. I like McCutchen a lot and he’s a great bet for a 20/20 season, but .285 seems to be his peak batting average and it appears he traded speed for a little extra pop this season. His strikeout rate rose to over 18 percent, likely another byproduct of his increased power production, and I think the Pittsburgh offense severely limits his run and RBI potential. McCutchen’s 2011 numbers put him as the 45th best player this season.

Jay Bruce should go ahead of McCutchen after the season he put up, but at worst he isn’t McCutchen’s inferior by 10 spots (Cockcroft ranks Bruce 28th). Bruce’s 2011 ranks just 54th right now, nine spots behind McCutchen’s, but he’s displaying the year-by-year growth that I want to see out of a top prospect. Bruce probably won’t bat much better than .260, but he’s a 30/100 player at age 24 and is part of a better lineup in Cincinnati than what Pittsburgh has to offer for McCutchen. Bruce’s home run numbers have been on the steady rise over his career, and a 40-homer season is a distinct possibility. With less than two weeks left in the season, there are just 10 players on pace for a 35-home run campaign. Perhaps I’m being pessimistic here, but I think there’s a better chance we get 40 homers from Bruce than we get that elusive 30/30 season from McCutchen.

Lastly, what’s with Carlos Santana at 30? With pitchers included, Santana probably falls somewhere in the mid-40s overall, but that seems way too high for an unproven catcher coming off a year in which he’s currently batting .238. It’s hard to ignore the 80-run, 80-RBI, 30-homer season he’s pretty much on pace to have this year, but this feels like a very high-risk pick. Crawford, Dan Uggla and Jennings are all ranked after Santana but seem like better players to target.

Then again, that’s just my two cents.

As always, players were ranked by considering their production in 2012, 2013 and then 2014 and beyond by (unscientifically) rating 2012 the most and 2014 and beyond the least.

Update: In case you missed our other rankings, you can check them out here:

• Keepers 1-20
• Keepers 41-60
• Keepers 61-80
• Keepers 81-100

Note: Listed age is for Opening Day, 2012

Rank	Player	Age	Position	Professor's Note
21	Dustin Pedroia	28	2B	New career highs in HR/RBI/SB this season and in his prime at 28
22	David Wright	29	3B	'10 bounceback year is still what I expect from star at shallow position
23	Felix Hernandez	25	SP	You know you're good when a 3.30 ERA is a "down" year
24	Jered Weaver	29	SP	Clearly trending in the right direction
25	Cliff Lee	33	SP	He might be the best pitcher on a staff that includes Roy Halladay
26	Andrew McCutchen	25	OF	BA doesn't worry me; he's a .285+ hitter who hasn't peaked yet
27	Carl Crawford	30	OF	Career body of work is too impressive for me to think '11 is the new norm
28	Jay Bruce	24	OF	4-year pro is still just 24 years old and is closing in on a 30/100 season
29	Mike Stanton	22	OF	He'll have many years atop the NL HR charts
30	Cole Hamels	28	SP	Changed his approach (more cutters) and took his game to a new level
31	C.C. Sabathia	31	SP	20-win workhorse currently has a career-best ERA (2.93)
32	Tim Lincecum	27	SP	Still a great SP but WHIP is only average
33	Ian Kinsler	29	2B	Perennial 30/30 threat delivers when healthy
34	Ryan Zimmerman	27	3B	I still think he's pretty close to a .300/30/100 guy
35	Matt Holliday	32	OF	Just 1 SB this year? Age might be catching up with him
36	Stephen Strasburg	23	SP	Complete upside pick but boy, is there upside
37	Zack Greinke	28	SP	Second half stats are phenomenal; he'll be fine in Milwaukee
38	Dan Haren	31	SP	Toss out the first half of '10 (w/ ARI) and he's been elite for 5 years
39	Josh Hamilton	30	OF	Scary-good when he plays but how often will he play?
40	Mark Teixeira	31	1B	R/HR/RBI combo is lethal, but .250-ish BA is what to expect these days

I think it’s safe to say that Beckett is over the injury issues that plagued him all last season. He’s locating his fastball better and he’s dialing it up to the mid-90s when he needs to. Beckett is also throwing his patented two-seamer with consistency, a pitch he needs to strike out left-handed batters. Add in a hard changeup that darts down in the zone and Beckett is now equipped with all the pitches that made him a Cy Young contender in 2009.

My preseason vote for comeback player of the year was James Shields, and while he’s off to a strong start, I may have to change my vote to Beckett.

Three Up

Kyle Lohse, SP, STL – CG, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 6 K

Scott Baker, SP, MIN – 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 9 K

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – 3-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR

Three Down

Daniel Hudson, SP, ARZ – 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 7 ER, 3 K

James McDonald, SP, PIT – 3 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 ER, 3 K

Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT- 0-for-5, 2 K, 3 LOB

Notes:

• Grady Sizemore collected three more hits to raise his batting average to .421. However he has yet to attempt a stolen base and I don’t anticipate him stealing more than 10-15 on the season. Without top end speed Sizemore becomes just another outfielder with power and a low batting average. If you can find someone in your league who believes in a Sizemore turn around I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him.
• Although Brandon McCarthy got the loss, he pitched another gem against the Mariners, holding them to four hits and one run in eight innings. He also struck out six batters and lowered his ERA and WHIP to 2.10 and 1.00, respectively. If you haven’t bought into McCarthy’s hot start do so immediately. He has completely overhauled his pitching style by adding a low 90s sinker and a cut fastball to his arsenal. At 27 years old, the former top prospect may finally be reaching his potential.
• Filling in for the injured Logan Morrison, Scott Cousins went 2-for-4 with a home run and 4 RBI. The 26 year old hasn’t had many at-bats at the major league level but he showed the ability to hit for power and speed in the minor leagues. Cousins may sit against left-handers in favor of Emilio Bonifacio but he makes for a speculative add in deeper leagues while Morrison recovers from a foot injury that’s expected to keep him out two to four weeks.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

• Kevin Youkilis left Thursday’s game after fouling a Tyler Chatwood pitch off his left foot. … Logan Morrison was placed on the DL with a foot sprain. He’s expected to be out two to four weeks. … Angel Pagan left yesterday’s game with a pulled muscle on the left side of his body. He’s doubtful for today’s game. … Daric Barton missed Thursday’s game with an illness. … Aaron Hill‘s MRI results were inconclusive and he’s questionable for tonight’s game. A DL stint could be looming.

Britton is the only one you should trust. He has the best stuff of the three and is coming off of a year in which he dominated both Double-A and Triple-A. He also throws a heavy sinker which will result in a lot of ground balls, a skill that is very advantageous in the power hitting American League East. Tillman and Arrieta on the other hand need to improve their strikeout and walk rates before I consider them rosterable.

The only concern with Britton is if he will be sent back down to the minors when Brian Matusz returns from injury. Luckily you don’t have to worry about that for a month so the rookie makes for a good short term, and possibly long term, add.

Three Up

Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL – 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB

Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL – SV, 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 K

Neil Walker, 2B, PIT – 3-4, 1 R, 2 RBI

Three Down

Vladimir Guerrero, DH, BAL – 0-4, 1 K, 5 LOB

Rick Porcello, SP, DET – 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB

Derek Jeter, SS, NYY – 0-4, 1 K, 1 LOB, .143 BA

Notes

• Brennan Boesch has now started three of Detroit’s four games. He doesn’t have an everyday position but Jim Leyland clearly wants his bat in the lineup. His batting average stands at .500 and he has one home run to go along with four RBI and five runs. Even though he didn’t win the starting left fielder job out of spring training he should still get 450 at-bats and provide cheap power with a handful of stolen bases
• It may be time to buy Justin Smoak before he starts to really heat up. With two hits on Monday he raised his batting average to .385 and now has a 14-game hitting streak dating back to last year. His batting average was abysmal last year but a lot of it had to do with his line drives not falling for hits. Smoak’s prospect status hasn’t worn off yet and there’s no reason why he can’t bat .280-plus with 20 home runs and 80 RBI. I know Seattle’s lineup isn’t great but he gets to hit in the middle of the order behind Ichiro Suzuki, Chone Figgins and OBP machine Jack Cust.
• After hitting zero home runs last year, Elvis Andrus hit one over the left field fence yesterday. And it didn’t just clear the wall. It’s a mistake if you think he is the Juan Pierre of shortstops because Andrus actually has some power potential. At six feet and 200 pounds he’s not exactly a small guy and he did hit six home runs in 2009 in 480 at-bats. When you factor in the humid Texas air I wouldn’t be that surprised if he hits close to 10 home runs.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Carlos Pena left Monday’s game because of a right thumb sprain. Consider him day-to-day. … Jeremy Guthrie has pneumonia and will miss his start on Wednesday. He won’t return until April 10th at the earliest.

Links around the Major Leagues

• Matt Holliday doesn’t want to go on the DL and could return this weekend.
• Andrew McCutchen returned to the lineup on Monday and homered after missing Sunday’s game with a stiff neck.
• Mat Latos‘ side session was “fantastic.”
• Zack Greinke‘s recovery from a cracked rib is going well.
• Scott Kazmir‘s rotation spot could be in jeopardy.

Ian Kinsler hit a home run in the Rangers’ first at-bat of the season while Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli also added bombs of their own. Overall, Texas muscled out six extra base hits (even Elvis Andrus joined the party with a double!)out of 10 total hits.

More impressively the team struck out a combined one time in a game where they faced one of baseball’s best strikeout pitchers in Jon Lester. The strikeout, for the record, went to Daniel Bard in the eighth inning.

It’s the same old story with the Rangers hitters as they will score plenty of runs to go around. Their lineup was loaded from one through seven last night and on days where Napoli catches we will see another quality bat in Mitch Moreland in the lineup, giving Texas eight solid hitters and Julio Borbon. All should be owned in mixed leagues.

Three Up
Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW - 3-5, 2 R, HR, 5 RBI
J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR - 3-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3B, 5 RBI
Jeremy Guthrie, SP, BAL - 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB

Three Down
Carl Crawford, OF, BOS - 0-4, 3 K, 5 LOB
Brandon Lyon, CL, HOU - 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE - 3 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 5 K, BB

Notes:

• Everyone worried about Ichiro Suzuki can probably squash those concerns until the second half because I still think those 37-year-old legs will get tired by the end of the year. However, Ichiro has shown that he like to run a lot early so it would be wise to take advantage and then cut bait. Last year, he stole nearly the same number of bases before (22) the break as after (20), but over the last three years his split is 75/36…Felix Hernandez turned in another gem giving up just two runs while striking out five in a complete-game effort. Ho-hum.

• Along with the Rangers, the Blue Jays seem to be the same home-run-hitting team we all loved last year. Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Arencibia (two home runs) each went deep. Arencibia even added a triple, rewarding those owners who waited on catchers in their drafts. Be prepared for a streaky, but solid, season from the rookie catcher…It was nice to see Lind homer as both the Blue Jays and fantasy owners hope he can return to his 2009 MVP-caliber form…Ricky Romero showed why I love him this year with a 13:5 GB:FB ratio and striking out seven batters over 6 1/3 innings.

• Hey, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-0! If the Pirates are going to do any type of damage it’s going to be because of their young core of Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. While Alvarez did nothing, the other three combined for five of Pirates’ seven hits, two home runs, one steal and all six of their RBI. McCutchen, who will be batting third this season after leading off all of last year, should have plenty more RBI opportunities and just adds another facet to his fantasy game.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Toronto’s Aaron Hill, who battled a quadriceps injury during spring training, left yesterday’s game after the seventh inning with the Blue Jays up 10-3…Florida’s Mike Stanton left yesterday’s game after five innings with hamstring tightness…Dodger’s Juan Uribe missed last night’s game with swelling in his elbow after getting hit by a pitch…Oakland’s Kurt Suzuki left last night’s game in the seventh with a mild ankle sprain.

Links around the Major Leagues:

• The Orioles might be without promising starter Brian Matusz for a little while.
• Blue Jays declined a three-year, $26 million option for Hill.
• Jim Leyland wants to find playing time for Brennan Boesch.
• Franklin Gutierrez is making progress with his rehab in Arizona.
• Carlos Beltran felt good after yesterday’s opener.
• It was a shaky start fo the Phillies’ Ben Francisco, but it ended on a good note.
• Stephen Drew missed yesterday’s opener and his status is still uncertain.

But while the Pirates likely won’t be playing many meaningful games this season, several players on their roster will have a huge impact on your 2011 fantasy season.

Guys I’ll Target

Andrew McCutchen, OF – I’ll admit I have a hard time figuring out exactly how to value McCutchen. On the bright side, McCutchen is disciplined and consistent. He batted .286 in the minors, .286 as a rookie with Pittsburgh in 2009 and, you guessed it, .286 in his 2010 sophomore season. Last year he had the lowest O-Swing% among all NL batters (20.0%), which shows his great command for the strike zone and gives us faith he will continue to grow as a hitter, but I wonder if he’s more than a 16-18 homer, 60 RBI threat this season.

That’s certainly not such poor production that it prevents you from drafting him—many of the other speedsters give you far less power output—but with mediocre totals in three of the five categories (AVG, HR, RBI), are his runs and steals enough? Considering Pittsburgh’s subpar-yet-improving lineup, McCutchen probably won’t score much more than 100 runs and a 35-40 steal season is in play, but I’m inclined to give you the nod to draft McCutchen where he’s currently valued.

Outfield is shallow and McCutchen can do a little bit of everything even if he doesn’t done one thing outstanding. The next four outfielders drafted after him are Jason Heyward, Ichiro Suzuki, Jayson Werth and Jacoby Ellsbury, and I’d rather McCutchen’s balance and consistency over what any of those guys bring.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B – We all know third base gets ugly fast, and Alvarez is literally the last guy I’d feel comfortable starting on my fantasy team. Consider the next half-dozen guys drafted after Alvarez: Mark Reynolds, Ian Stewart, Placido Polanco, Chipper Jones, Chase Headley and Edwin Encarnacion. Now, don’t be fooled by Alvarez’s .256 batting average as it was fueled by a .341 BABIP that doesn’t exactly jive with his 14.8 percent line-drive rate. He’s a threat to bat .230 or worse in 2011, but the power is definitely legit and a 30/100 season is a real possibility.

Jose Tabata, OF – Tabata is my third player in Pittsburgh’s holy prospect trinity, and I already covered why I love Tabata’s sleeper status this season.

Neil Walker, 2B – To use a basketball metaphor, if McCutchen, Alvarez and Tabata are the Pirates’ version of the Boston Celtics’ Big Three, then Walker is Rajon Rondo a la 2009. He’s sometimes forgotten or underestimated, but he’s every bit as important as the other three guys. Walker probably won’t steal more than 7-10 bases at most, but he’s a .280-plus hitter with 70-plus run and RBI potential who could finish the season with 20 homers. That kind of production isn’t spectacular, but it’s more than you’d expect from the 16th-ranked second baseman according to current live draft results.

Joel Hanrahan, RP – By now you know me. I don’t like to pay for saves, so when I see a bona fide closer with a 2.77 xFIP last season and a 12.92 K/9 I jump at the chance to draft him. Hanrahan is one of those guys this season.

Guys I’ll Draft…If They Fall Far Enough

Normally I like to pick one or two guys who I wouldn’t mind drafting if they fell a round or two, but Pittsburgh seriously has none of these guys. Everyone fits into either the “yeah, go ahead and draft him” category or the “umm, are you sure someone drafted Cody Ross?” category, which means I have no one here. But keep reading anyway.

Guys I’m Not Drafting

Garrett Jones, OF – I was a big fan of Jones in both 2009 and 2010. He was cheap, provided solid pop and even stole a good amount of bases. Unfortunately, he’s another one of those lefties who can’t hit lefties (.220 average against LHP last season) so Pittsburgh brought in Matt Diaz. In case you didn’t know, Diaz owns a career .335 average and .907 OPS against left-handed pitchers, and a platoon of him and Jones will form quite the productive outfielder. I don’t want to draft a player who’s going to sit out every time he has to face a lefty.

Chris Snyder/Ryan Doumit, C – Care to tell me which of these guys will get more at-bats this season? I’d rather just take a catcher with my last pick, use my other picks on high-ceiling starting pitchers or hitters and just find “hot” catchers on free agency.

Guys I’m Keeping an Eye On

James McDonald, SP - If you’re in a rather deep league, feel free to move McDonald into the “Guys I’ll Target” category. If he can keep his walk rate in the 3.00-4.00 BB/9 range, McDonald could become a fun player to own. He’ll probably strike out close to a batter an inning and his 4.17 xFIP gives you hope he can at least be slightly above average in that category, and that’s something worth taking a chance on as the 86th overall starting pitcher drafted…but more likely on free agency.

Kevin Correia, SP – If you’re in an NL-only league then Correia actually has some draft value, but mixed league players should still be aware of his existence. Correia had ERAs of 3.91 and 5.40 over the last two seasons, but he’s had xFIPs of 4.20 and 4.19 in those same two seasons as well, which just goes to show how volatile ERA can be. Correia has always been a moderate strikeout pitcher capable of topping 7.00 K/9, so if his 2011 more closely resembles 2009 (that was his good season by the way) then feel free to add him here and there.

Tier 1

Carl Crawford (BOS), Ryan Braun (MIL), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Matt Holliday (STL), Josh Hamilton (TEX), Matt Kemp (LAD)

Not a lot wrong with this group as Crawford and Braun are sure-fire first rounders. … Gonzalez probably won’t hit .336 again, but his power and speed (34 HR/26 SB) are here to stay. … Holliday will get you Braun’s stats across the board, but 10-15 picks later. … The tier ends with a couple of questions marks in Hamilton‘s health and Kemp‘s work ethic. Even with Kemp having a “down” year, he still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.

Tier 2

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Justin Upton (ARI), Jason Heyward (ATL), Jayson Werth (WAS), Alex Rios (CHW), Jose Bautista (TOR), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Hunter Pence (HOU), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Andre Ethier (LAD), Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS),  Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)

You can bank on a .300 AVG, 20 HR and 20 SB from Choo, and if the Indians ever surround him with good hitters he will eclipse 180+ R/RBI. … In his third season, Upton regressed a bit towards his rookie form, but he is still only 23 years old so I wouldn’t panic yet. … Heyward is quickly becoming one of the most beloved young hitters over the last decade because of his great plate discipline (14.6 BB%). … It will be interesting to see what Werth does without the Phillies’ offense surrounding him. … After a disappointing 2009 season, Rios came back and finally eclipsed the 20/20 mark everyone was waiting for. …  You can read my take on Jose Bautista‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value. … Ellsbury should be an elite contributor in runs and steals if he bats first for the Red Sox, and he’s a good candidate to hit near .300. … No need to reiterate how I feel about Ichiro‘s 2011 fantasy baseball value.

Tier 3

Mike Stanton (FLA), Jay Bruce (CIN), Shane Victorino (PHI), Chris Young (ARI), Colby Rasmus (STL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), Ben Zobrist (TB), Corey Hart (MIL), Torii Hunter (LAA), Curtis Granderson (NYY), Delmon Young (MIN), B.J. Upton (TB), Nick Markakis (BAL), Bobby Abreu (LAA), Jason Bay (NYM), Angel Pagan (NYM), Adam Jones (BAL)

Stanton‘s power is out-of-this-world and if he can cut down on the Ks (34.3%) and raise that AVG (.259) he can be a top-10 option by year’s end. … It was nice to see Bruce stay healthy for an entire season. Don’t be surprised if he reaches 30 home runs this year. … The Flyin’ Hawaiian traded his batting average for a little extra power last year. Here’s to hoping he realized that it was a mistake. … Look for Stubbs to be a great value in the middle rounds as his 22 HR and 30 SB aren’t easy to find elsewhere. … Hart had a career-year in 2010 and while he didn’t contribute much with his seven steals, I’ll take the 31 HR and 192 R/RBI. … If you read our study on the importance of lineup slots it should be no surprise that Granderson had a down year batting at the bottom of the Yankees’ order. … Bryan Curley gave his thoughts earlier on why Bay is a 2011 fantasy sleeper.

Tier 4

Juan Pierre (CHW), Vernon Wells (LAA), Grady Sizemore (CLE), Denard Span (MIN), Carlos Lee (HOU), Nick Swisher (NYY), Carlos Quentin (CHW), Michael Bourn (HOU), Brett Gardner (NYY), Lance Berkman (STL), Jason Kubel (MIN)

Pierre contributes in steals (68) and runs (96), but that’s about it. … Sizemore can still be a useful fantasy contributor so don’t completely disregard him. He is only two years removed from a 30/30 season and has been plagued by injuries the last two seasons. … I expect Span to raise his batting average back to .290-.300, but he brings no power to the table. … Swisher enjoyed himself a fine season in 2010 and while the power (29 HR and 180 R/RBI) is legit the average (.288) might be harder to replicate. Then again, he did change his approach last season.

Tier 5

Austin Jackson (DET), Raul Ibanez (PHI), Magglio Ordonez (DET), Dexter Fowler (COL), Rajai Davis (TOR), Travis Snider (TOR), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Andres Torres (SF), Julio Borbon (TEX), Manny Ramirez (TB), Jose Tabata (PIT), Marlon Byrd (CHC), Chris Coghlan (FLA), J.D.Drew (BOS)

Jackson had a ridiculous .396 BABIP and still only managed a .293 batting average. Not a good sign. … The term post-hype sleeper applies here with Snider as he should get the starting right field job. Last year he hit 14 home runs in just 319 at-bats. … In 2010, Borbon stole four fewer bases in 289 more at-bats. He’s going to have to step up the running if he is going to have any fantasy value. … We have Ramirez‘s projection covered in our 2011 Tampa Bay Rays preview. … Tabata is only 22-years old and is quickly becoming one of Pittsburgh’s many young, bright stars.

• D-Backs manager A.J. Hinch reassured fans and fantasy owners that Edwin Jackson is still their starter.
• Jake Peavy had his first ace-like outing. Go figure. It only took a month.
• Cincinnati called up Chris Heisey to replace Chris Dickerson in the outfield, though he won’t be starting often.
• Kerry Wood was rocked for six runs on four hits and two walks in two-thirds of an inning in his first rehab appearance.
• Injured Tiger Carlos Guillen is still a ways away from even making a rehab appearance, but he did join the team on their road trip.
• Lance Berkman says he’s still working his lower body into shape after arthroscopic surgery on his knee delayed his season debut.
• It might have only been one night (seriously, who knows) but Kendry Morales moved up to fourth in the Angels’ order and Hideki Matsui dropped to fifth while Matsui continues to struggle.
• Rafael Furcal appears headed to the DL after six missed games. Nick Green could be called up to replace him.
• The DLed Kelvim Escobar is set to undergo surgery to repair his right shoulder and no timetable is set for his return.
• Mike Pelfrey is battling shoulder tightness but is still expected to make his next start.
• Javier Vazquez will likely miss his next scheduled start against Boston to work on his mechanics.
• A’s reliever Michael Wuertz is back with the team and anxious to make his season debut.
• Ryan Madson is going to have surgery to repair a broken toe after he kicked a chair. Good thing Brad Lidge is coming back.
• Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen is listed as day-to-day with a sore ankle after landing on Dodgers’ pitcher Hiroki Kuroda.
• Injured Giants Edgar Renteria and Brian Wilson are hoping to be available today.
• Struggling outfielder Eric Byrnes was released by the Mariners.
• Nelson Cruz says he’s feeling much better and says he is currently running at 70 percent. A short rehab assignment will soon follow.

• Justin Duchscherer is meeting with doctors today to determine whether his newest hip injury will require surgery. If it does, he could miss the remainder of the season.
• Twins’ catcher Joe Mauer missed both Saturday and Sunday with a bruised heel, which could linger for weeks according to manager Ron Gardenhire.
• Royals’ third baseman Alex Gordon will have to wait a little longer before he gets his shot in the Majors as the Royals optioned him to Triple-A Omaha on Sunday.
• Indians’ closer Kerry Wood is getting ready to start a rehab assignment in Double-A.
• Blue Jays’ starter Shaun Marcum has pitched brilliantly so far in 2010, but he just picked up his first win yesterday.
• It’s been an awful to start the season for Yankees’ starter Javy Vazquez and Tim Britton of MLB.com suggests that the Yankees might skip his start this week so he can work on his mechanics.
• The Boston Red Sox have had one of the tougher schedules so far this season, but are expressing a lot of frustration after being swept by the AL’s worst team – the Baltimore Orioles.
• Braves’ shortstop Yunel Escobar is still battling injury and could land on the DL in the next couple of days. Also, Bobby Cox says he plans to use Nate McLouth at leadoff against right-handed pitchers.
• You can question the Mets’ outfielder Jeff Francoeur’s skills all you want, but the man is tough.
• Phillies’ starter Joe Blanton will make his 2010 debut against the Cardinals’ Jaime Garcia in what could be a NLCS game 3 preview.
• Rookie phemon Stephen Strasburg said goodbye to Double-A ball in mediocre fashion, but he expresses no concerns for his future.
• According to Marlon Byrd of the Chicago Cubs, Alfonso Soriano has been working hard and will have a huge year.
• Reds’ catcher Ryan Hanigan could earn some more playing time if he continues to hit.
• Pirates’ outfielder Andrew McCutchen is day-to-day with an ankle sprain.
• Rockies’ pitcher Jhoulys Chacin pitched marvelously in his season debut.
• Right-elbow soreness will keep Dodgers’ starting pitcher Vicente Padilla out for at least another month, but they expect Manny Ramirez to return shortly.

I have discovered a new statistic while perusing the baseball reference site (it would take you a whole year to discover every statistic they had on their website) and it’s called offensive winning percentage. What they do is take a player, clone him nine times and assume average pitching and defense. That’s the team and the winning percentage is how a team like that would do winning games. It’s really just a fun and different way to evaluate pure offensive talent. Just two weeks into the season here is the top 10 in OWn%:

1. Manny Ramirez – .896
2. Brad Hawpe – .889
3. Vernon Wells – .886
4. Chase Utley – .880
5. Andre Ethier – .874
6. Nelson Cruz – .859
7. Casey McGehee – .858
8. Josh Willingham – .852
9. Ryan Braun – .852
10. Shin-Soo Choo – .843

Some interesting names are on that list, but remember it’s early on the season so you should not go trading for Brad Hawpe or Casey McGehee at all costs. I am just trying to spread the cheer and joy of the statistical world of baseball. So go on and explore the world of numbers, you will surprise yourself at how many things you might learn. It just goes to show how much fun you can have with numbers!

Surging

Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Don’t look now, but Rafael Furcal is batting .356 with 15 runs and seven steals. Furcal is a guy who stole 20 bases in his last two seasons and has not topped 30 steals since 2006. Now it looks like he is back to being aggressive on the base paths and he could score a lot of runs with Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier all batting behind him. Furcal can hit .300, top 100 runs and steal 30 bases this season, but he will have to stay healthy.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

You might recall Bryan Curley and I arguing between Andrew McCutchen and B.J. Upton in the preseason and it seems that both players are off to hot starts. McCutchen leads the league in steals (9) and is batting a respectable .273 this season. He only has one RBI so far which just shows you how bad the Pirates’ offense is, but he has scored 12 runs and should be good for 80-90 runs and could steal upwards of 40 bases. If he can show his power was no fluke from last season we could see a 20/40 guy as early as this season.

Colby Rasmus, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

The power is definitely for real as Colby Rasmus hit 29 home runs in 128 Double-A games in 2007. The big question is whether he can maintain a respectable .270 batting average as opposed to one in the .250 area. Currently he is hitting .273 and some encouraging signs are that his 18.2 BB% is easily the highest it’s ever been in his young career and his .280 BABIP is right in line with his career numbers. However, Rasmus is striking out 31.8 percent of the time, which is a number I expect to go down, but he also has hit line drives just 10 percent of the time. Fewer line drives means a tougher time sustaining a good batting average, and it’s possible that Rasmus’ .273 average is a little lucky thanks to his early boost in home runs.

Falling

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Ben Zobrist burst onto the scene last year when he hit 27 home runs and stole 17 bases in just 501 at-bats. A lot of fantasy baseball owners (including me) had their doubts that Zobrist could repeat in 2010 and so far he is helping make the argument for the doubters. His approach at the plate has suffered as he has walked just 6.5 percent of the time and struck out 25.8 percent of the time. In 2009, Zobrist posted a .405 OBP, which was 11th in the majors and while the four steals are nice, he will have to improve on his approach to please his owners.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians

I wrote a blog post about Grady Sizemore earlier this week highlighting why I would be worried to own him in fantasy this year. Given his performance over the past week (.091 BA, 0 HR, 0 RBI) and his struggles against left-handed pitchers (1-for-21) he is just going to keep falling on my board until he turns it around. Chances are he will fix whatever is plaguing him right now, but visions of another 30/30 season are no longer a lock and probably more on the unrealistic side.

Nick Markakis,OF, Baltimore Orioles

It’s nice to see Nick Markakis walking again and his 15.7 BB% is even better than his 14.2 percentage in his breakout 2008 season. However, Markakis is also sporting a very unimpressive triple slash line of .259/.371/.379, which is awful considering he is not a player who will swipe more than 10 bases. Fantasy owners had dreams of Markakis posting 25 home runs and 15 steals, but it seems that 25 home runs might be a little optimistic and that makes Markakis a solid third or fourth outfielder in 10-team mixed leagues.

Player to Watch

Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets

Ike Davis is getting his shot in the big leagues and if he stays he could provide fantasy teams with some power off the waiver wire. In the minors last year, Davis hit 20 home runs and drove in 71 runs in just 114 games and he posted a .906 OPS. Davis has struggled a little so far in the majors, but he is immediately batting sixth in the Mets lineup, which could give him plenty of RBI opportunities.

On the Mend

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies

It was not good news for Jimmy Rollins and his fantasy owners when he went down with a calf injury. For a player who relies so much on his speed, it wouldn’t surprise me if he takes his time to come back which could mean a four-week absence. It’s too bad because Rollins was putting together a nice bounce-back year with a .391 batting average and two steals in seven games.

Down on the Farm

Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers

It’s the same old song and dance for Justin Smoak as he continues to rake in the minors, but he is denied the chance to play in the majors because of Chris Davis. Well, this might be Davis’ last chance to impress the Rangers because Smoak seems to be ready to take over and could contribute immediately when he gets the call. He won’t mash the ball, but his batting is nothing short of astonishing (16 BB, 6 K).