About a week ago Tristan H. Cockcroft released his early 2012 fantasy baseball hitter rankings. I’ve struggled putting together my early 2012 rankings because it’s tough to figure out how each player’s 2011 season translates to 2012 production a whole six-plus months in the future. What do we do with Carl Crawford? How much will Hanley Ramirez‘s surgery set him back to start the year? Will Adam Dunn make good on his threat to retire?
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Overall, I tend to like Cockcroft’s rankings, but there are a few players in his top 50 that caught my eye for a number of reasons, and keep in mind when reading either the rankings or my reaction that these ranks only include hitters.
The first guy that stuck out was the first guy listed, Ryan Braun. The Brewers’ star outfielder has had an all-around sensational season, especially with his legs, but right now his .330 average and 31 steals are both career highs, the latter of which shattered his previous career high (20 steals in 2009). With all of that he’s still “just” the fifth-ranked player in fantasy this season. Now, in most cases you’d be pretty excited if your first-overall pick finished fifth on the season, but I have a hard time seeing Braun repeating this year’s numbers across the board. It was just that superb of a season.
I don’t even have Braun as my number one outfielder. That honor is bestowed upon Matt Kemp. Kemp is the second-ranked player this year with a line that blows Braun’s out of the water. He’s the only 40/40 threat in the league and he’s rebounded from a down 2010 season by raising his batting average 73 points to .322. I don’t expect a repeat of this year’s average in 2012, but his career .351 BABIP and 21.5 percent line drive rate tell me a .300-ish season is likely. There is more risk with Kemp, but I think it’s a good risk for the type of production you can get. Cockcroft had Kemp ranked sixth.
I had Jose Bautista ranked first in my 2012 fantasy baseball keeper rankings, but there’s a good chance he falls down that list a few spots by the start of next season. I trust Bautista to put up numbers similar to this year’s and he plays at a shallow fantasy position, but he doesn’t steal enough bases for my liking when you could have some of the many 30/30 threats the first round has to offer.
Alex Gordon checks in at 36 on Cockcroft’s rankings, which I think is a little bit too high. If you could tell me there was a 75 percent chance Gordon would repeat his 2011 season, I’d take him there in a heartbeat, but .303 with 23 home runs and 17 steals can easily become .280 with 18 home runs and 15 steals, and while that’s a valuable season, Gordon is losing his third base eligibility next year and that line becomes replaceable for an outfielder. Plus, can he really repeat the 101 runs he has this year? Eric Hosmer is a nice middle-of-the-order bat in Kansas City, but breakout seasons from Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur helped contribute to Gordon’s runs total. A lot of things have to go right next year for Gordon to have similar value.
Instead of taking Gordon with a fourth or fifth round pick (remember, pitchers aren’t included in Cockcroft’s rankings), I’d rather have Desmond Jennings. I don’t think the 10 homers Jennings has in limited at-bats are a true representation of the production we’ll see in 2012, but he has great plate discipline and he’ll get on base at a very good rate. With his speed that should mean a 30-steal season is the absolute worst we should expect with the potential for a 70-steal year like we saw from Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009.
One ranking that I think Cockcroft got very wrong was Andrew McCutchen at 18. I like McCutchen a lot and he’s a great bet for a 20/20 season, but .285 seems to be his peak batting average and it appears he traded speed for a little extra pop this season. His strikeout rate rose to over 18 percent, likely another byproduct of his increased power production, and I think the Pittsburgh offense severely limits his run and RBI potential. McCutchen’s 2011 numbers put him as the 45th best player this season.
Jay Bruce should go ahead of McCutchen after the season he put up, but at worst he isn’t McCutchen’s inferior by 10 spots (Cockcroft ranks Bruce 28th). Bruce’s 2011 ranks just 54th right now, nine spots behind McCutchen’s, but he’s displaying the year-by-year growth that I want to see out of a top prospect. Bruce probably won’t bat much better than .260, but he’s a 30/100 player at age 24 and is part of a better lineup in Cincinnati than what Pittsburgh has to offer for McCutchen. Bruce’s home run numbers have been on the steady rise over his career, and a 40-homer season is a distinct possibility. With less than two weeks left in the season, there are just 10 players on pace for a 35-home run campaign. Perhaps I’m being pessimistic here, but I think there’s a better chance we get 40 homers from Bruce than we get that elusive 30/30 season from McCutchen.
Lastly, what’s with Carlos Santana at 30? With pitchers included, Santana probably falls somewhere in the mid-40s overall, but that seems way too high for an unproven catcher coming off a year in which he’s currently batting .238. It’s hard to ignore the 80-run, 80-RBI, 30-homer season he’s pretty much on pace to have this year, but this feels like a very high-risk pick. Crawford, Dan Uggla and Jennings are all ranked after Santana but seem like better players to target.
Then again, that’s just my two cents.
