Tag Archives | Albert Pujols

2011 Fantasy Baseball 1B Rankings

By on January 23, 2011 | Comments { 4 }

Our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings are now posted and we just took at look at the tiers in our 2011 catcher rankings, which means today we look at first base. This position seems to get deeper every season, so even if you miss out on our of the top tier guys, there’s nothing wrong with any of the rest…until you get to the third tier, that is. At that point you’re better off stocking up on starting pitching and hoping Aubrey Huff has another year of magic. To the tiers!

Tier 1

Albert Pujols (STL), Miguel Cabrera (DET), Joey Votto (CIN)

The best of the best. I am not a fan of drafting first basemen in the first round because of the aforementioned depth, but even I have no issue drafting one of these guys. Pujols and Votto contribute in all five categories, usually stealing upwards of 10 bases, and even though Cabrera is as much a thief as Gandhi was, he’s still enough of a monster in every other category to warrant his placement here. Nothing more need be said of these three.

Tier 2

Adrian Gonzalez (BOS), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Prince Fielder (MIL), Ryan Howard (PHI), Kevin Youkilis (BOS)

I’ll probably take a lot of heat for leaving Gonzalez out of the top tier, but it’s totally justified. He doesn’t steal bases. He doesn’t hit for an elite average. He just hits homers and drives in runs. That’s still awesome and good enough for fourth best at the game’s deepest position, but it does not warrant tier one status and certainly not a first round draft pick. … Teixeira is better than his .259 average last year suggests. … Fielder is still a 40-homer threat that won’t kill your batting average. … Howard is the closest thing to a 40/140 guarantee even though he didn’t do it last season (age is getting to be a concern). … Youkilis has no real weaknesses in his game and is as well-rounded as they come.

Tier 3

Kendry Morales (LAA), Justin Morneau (MIN), Adam Dunn (CHW), Victor Martinez (DET), Paul Konerko (CHW), Buster Posey (SF), Billy Butler (KC), Pablo Sandoval (SF)

Well, the AL Central certainly is well-represented in this tier. I’m about as big of a Morales fan as you’ll find, and I almost put him at the tail end of tier two, but he still has to prove he can replicate 2009. … Morneau has great per-game numbers, but health is always a concern. … Dunn is a sure-fire 40-homer guy with his share of weaknesses. … Martinez and Posey are better served as your starting catcher but are solid first basemen. .. Konerko had an unexpectedly great 2010 but I have my concerns (prior seasons were nothing special). … Butler‘s high average and low power output are more befitting of a middle infielder. … Sandoval has just enough potential to keep me hoping there’s another .300 season with some serious power ahead.

Tier 4

Carlos Pena (CHC), Derrek Lee (BAL), Aubrey Huff (SF), Carlos Lee (HOU), Lance Berkman (STL), Michael Cuddyer (MIN), Gaby Sanchez (FLA), Adam LaRoche (ATL), Ike Davis (NYM)

The top half of this tier – Pena, Lee, Huff, the other Lee and Berkman – would have been tier two/tier three if it was 2006. It’s not. … Cuddyer and LaRoche are WYSIWYG (that’s “what you see is what you get” in case you’re wondering) as in .270s hitters with good-not-great everything else. … Sanchez and Davis have some upside, but there’s too much depth at the position to warrant gambling on them as your everyday starter. Still, bench spots or rotating utility roles are good places for these two right now. And again, this takes us through 25 guys as the last five really aren’t worth mentioning.

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The Morning After: April 13

By on April 13, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Monday was not a good day for middle infielders.  Brian Roberts and Aaron Hill were both placed on the 15 day-DL and Jimmy Rollins missed the Phillies game due to a calf strain.  There were some positive developments however.  The Padres offensive outburst showed that there is life besides Adrian Gonzalez.

Without further delay lets get into each game from a fantasy perspective.

Monday’s best: Kyle Blanks (SD) – 3-for 6, 3 R, 5 RBI, 1 HR

Monday’s worse: Jair Jurrjens (ATL) – 3.1 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Royals 10, Tigers 5

  • Scott Podsednik went 4-for-5 raising his average to .444 and stole his fifth base of the season. He should be able to steal around 40-50 bases this year. Although he is viewed as somewhat of a batting average killer, he did hit over .300 last year.
  • Luke Hochevar fanned five batters in as many innings but didn’t pitch all that well otherwise. It was his second start against the Tigers in six days so I‘m sure they felt pretty comfortable in the batting box against him. He remains someone to watch in his next few starts.
  • Another multi-hit game for Austin Jackson. That makes four on the year.

Cubs 9, Brewers 5

  • Xavier Nady got the start in right field for the Cubs and responded with two hits, including a three run-homer.  With five outfielders capable of swinging the bat, the Cubs outfield situation remains murky at best.
  • Doug Davis got roughed up again for the second straight time. The Brewers signed him to solidify their rotation. You on the other hand should do no such thing.

Phillies 7, Nationals 4

  • Jimmy Rollins was a late scratch for this game due to a calf muscle that he strained in pre-game stretches. It sounds like J-Roll could miss some time
  • Placido Polanco continued his hot hitting and should be virtually a lock for a .300 average and 100 runs
  • Ryan Zimmerman sat out this game with a hamstring injury. However, it doesn’t sound serious and he hopes to be back on Wednesday.

Rangers 4, Indians 2

  • Nelson Cruz continues to murder the ball, belting his fifth home run and knocking in his 11th run.
  • One has to wonder if Ron Washington will flip-flop Julio Borbon and Elvis Andrus in the order.  Borbon’s average dropped to .040 and he was eventually pinch hit for by Ryan Garko. Meanwhile, Andrus reached base safely in all four at bats.
  • Neftali Feliz had no problem closing out the Indians for his first save of the season. However, Frank Francisco, who picked up the win, should not be dropped just yet in competitive leagues.
  • Chris Perez came in for the top of the 9th in a tie game but failed to record an out. Stay tuned.

Twins 5, Red Sox 2

  • Target Field saw its first action yesterday. It’s too early to tell how this field will play but it does appear to be a hitter’s park. When asked about the right field wall, Red Sox right fielder J.D. Drew referred to it as a “mini Green Monster.”
  • Jon Rauch saved his major league-leading fifth game of the season. I think it’s safe to say that the Twins won’t be using a committee anytime soon.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury sat this game out with bruised ribs but hopes to be back for Wednesday’s game.

Cardinals 5, Astros 0

  • Adam Wainwright pitched another gem and seems poised to make another Cy Young run.
  • Albert Pujols hit another home run and the MVP award is his to lose
  • Wandy Rodriquez had another tough outing. Nothing to worry about yet considering this game was away, and Wandy does have a history struggling on the road.

Padres 17, Braves 2

  • Who says nobody besides Adrian Gonzalez on the Padres is worth owning? Kyle Blanks had three hits, including a home run, and drove in five runs. He’s batting fourth in the lineup and has the potential to hit upwards of 30 home runs this year. A lot of upside here.
  • Will Venable added three hits of his own, scored four runs, drove in two runs, and stole a base. He’s a sneaky 20/20 candidate.
  • Chase Headley had two more hits and upped his average to .448. If you have guys like Casey Blake on your bench, drop them for Headley.

Athletics 4, Mariners 0

  • Justin Duchscherer pitched well, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings. Before trusting him I’d like to see him pitch against somebody other than the lowly Mariners offense.
  • Rajai Davis stole his fifth base of the season. He’s another example of how plentiful steals are this year

Rays 5, Orioles 1

  • Reid Brignac got the start over Sean Rodriquez and picked up two hits, including a home run, to raise his average to .556. This is not good news if you’re a Rodriquez owner and were expecting a Zobrist-like break out year.
  • Matt Garza pitched eight innings, allowing only one run. Expect him to make the jump toward the upper echelon of starting pitchers.

White Sox 8, Blue Jays 7

  • Two home runs and four RBI for Andruw Jones. He’s someone to consider in deep leagues for some dirt cheap power. He won’t play everyday but he’ll always be in the lineup against lefties
  • Jake Peavy, meet the American League. While no longer an ace, better days are ahead for Peavy as he should remain a top-30 starter.
  • Just when you thought Jason Frasor was over his opening day meltdown he goes and blows another save. With Kevin Gregg breathing down his neck he cannot afford anymore slip ups.
  • Vernon Wells hit his fifth home run and his wrist injury seems to be a thing of the past.

Reds 6, Marlins 5

  • Scott Rolen hit two more home runs and is off to a strong start this season. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities batting fifth in that lineup.
  • Jorge Cantu now has 12 RBI on the season. He should easily surpass 100 this year with the quality of hitters in front of him.
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The Morning After: April 12

By on April 12, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Let’s be honest. With the conclusion of the Masters and two of the hottest pitching prospects making their first minor league starts, there was probably more hype outside the Major League’s on Sunday.

Nevertheless, we still saw the closest thing to a complete game shutout from Roy Halladay and a nice MLB debut from first-round pick Mike Leake. Without further delay, let’s delve into what took place Sunday afternoon.

Sunday’s best: Roy Halladay (PHI) – 9 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Sunday’s worst: David Ortiz (BOS)- 0-for-4, 4 K, 5 LOB

Tigers 9, Indians 8

  • Travis Hafner has hit safely in five of the Indians six games and has knocked in a run in three straight games. If his shoulder holds up he should be a nice source of cheap power.
  • Chris Perez blew his first save of the season but his job is safe for now. … Magglio Ordonez continued his hot hitting by collecting two more hits and knocking in two runs.
  • Austin Jackson now has three multi-hit games on the season.
  • Justin Verlander pitched poorly for the second consecutive start. Hopefully he’s not feeling the effects of the 240 innings he pitched last year.

Marlins 6, Dodgers 5

  • Knuckleballer Charlie Haeger struck out 12 Marlins in six innings, but he did walk four batters. Control will always be a problem for Haeger so he’s still not a matchups play at this point. … Jorge Cantu, who has an RBI in every game this season, drove in five on Sunday and hit his second home run of the season.
  • Cameron Maybin is hitting in a very favorable spot in the Marlins lineup. He’s protected by Hanley Ramirez and also has Cantu and Dan Uggla hitting behind him. If he can get on base, expect a lot of runs out of him this year.

Nationals 5, Mets 2

  • Josh Willingham belted a homer and drove in five runs. He did have 24 home runs last year in only 427 at bats.
  • Jeff Francoeur raised his average to .476 with two hits. Don’t overlook him, after all he did hit .311 with 10 home runs in 75 games for the Mets last year.
  • Johan Santana failed to build off of his first start of the season, letting up five runs in five innings while only striking out three batters.

Reds 3, Cubs 1

  • Mike Leake, Cincinnati’s first round pick a year ago, pitched pretty well in his major league debut. He pitched 6 2/3 innings, surrendering only one run and striking out five batters. The only blemishes were the seven walks, which is expected from a young pitcher. Don’t rush out to add him yet, but he makes a pretty nice matchups play.
  • Geovany Soto’s struggles continue and while the signs have not been encouragins so far, I still like him for a bounce back this year.

Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2

  • Shaun Marcum pitched well again for the Jays and if he’s on your waiver wire pick him up now.
  • Brian Roberts was not in the lineup for the second straight game and his strained abdominal muscle could force him to the DL.

Yankees 7, Rays 3

  • Curtis Granderson collected two more hits and stole his third base of the year. This looks like it could be a monster year for New York’s new center fielder.
  • At least A.J. Burnett got the win because he only struck out one batter. You likely won’t see that again from him.
  • Tough game for B.J. Upton as he went 0-for-3 and stranded six men on base.
  • Jason Bartlett continues to prove he’s a good source of average, runs and stolen bases, however, I’d like to see him repeat last year’s power performance before I fully trust him.

Phillies 2, Astros 1

  • Cy, I mean Roy Halladay pitched a complete game letting up no earned runs and striking out eight batters. He will have a better year than Tim Lincecum. Mark it down.
  • Roy Oswalt looked good, striking out eight Phillies in six innings and only letting up two runs. He appears healthy at the moment but the injury bug could bite him at any time.

White Sox 5, Twins 4

  • Denard Span continues to struggle at the plate but don’t do anything rash like drop him. If you don’t have him maybe send a low-ball offer for him just in case his owner is of the impatient type.
  • The criminally underrated Paul Konerko slugged his third home run of the season.
  • Gordon Beckham hit his first home run of the season and is poised to take the next step.

Red Sox 8, Royals 6

  • Jacoby Ellsbury left the game holding his ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre. X-rays came back negative but expect him to miss the next game or two.
  • Speaking of Beltre, he raised his average to .400 with three hits.
  • David Ortiz put on the Golden Sombrero Sunday afternoon going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. With Mike Lowell and Jeremy Hermida on the bench, Ortiz doesn’t have as long a leash as he had last year.
  • Gil Meche came off the DL and pitched a stinker. Watch him in his next few starts to see if he shows improvement before picking him up.

Rangers 9, Mariners 2

  • Franklin Gutierrez continues his hot hitting and should see plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the meat of the Mariners’ lineup.
  • Vladimir Guerrero is now batting .500 on the season after another multi-hit game.
  • Scott Feldman pitched seven innings again, surrendering only one run and striking out four batters. Last year was not a fluke.

Rockies 4, Padres 2

  • Chase Headley had two more hits on Sunday to bring his average up to .440. A former top prospect, Headley looks primed for a breakout season now that he’s back at his familiar position at third base.
  • Miguel Olivo hit his second home run of the season and is clearly outperforming Chris Iannetta at this point of the season.

Athletics 9, Angels 4

  • Jake Fox got the start at catcher for Oakland. If/when he gets catcher eligibility he is definitely someone to add.
  • Dallas Braden didn’t strike out 10 batters this time but he did have a quality start and got the win.
  • Brandon Wood went hitless again so look for Maicer Izturis to start stealing some at bats in the immediate future.

Giants 6, Braves 3

  • Jason Heyward hit his third home run in his big league career. Let’s face it. This kid is going to be great, but temper your expectations this year and don’t count on 30 home runs or a .300 average in 2010.
  • Pablo Sandoval hit his first home run of the season and could approach 30 this year.

Diambacks 15, Pirates 6

  • Lastings Milledge batted third for the Pirates and responded with three hits. Reports are that he has learned a lot in the maturity department from Andrew McCutchen and if he continues to show progress, he could become a classic post-hype sleeper.
  • Chris Young and Kelly Johnson both hit their third home runs of the season. It looks like these guys are becoming fantasy relevant once again.

Brewers 8, Cardinals 7

  • Ryan Ludwick batted second again for the Cardinals as if looks like Tony LaRussa will continue to do this against lefties.
  • Albert Pujols hit two more home runs and drove in in four runs. I’m pretty sure he really is a machine. … Rickie Weeks hit his second home run of the season. He is now batting .368 with six runs and four RBI.
  • Trevor Hoffman blew his second consecutive save. Although Texas and Baltimore have already made closing changes, Hoffman won’t lose his job considering he is seven saves away from 600. Todd Coffey is next in line for saves if something were to happen to Hoffman.
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Reaction To Tristan H. Cockcroft’s Top 10

By on January 7, 2010 | Comments { 6 }

Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN.com recently published his early top 200 rankings for 2010.  He based his rankings on a 10 team league using Rotisserie 5×5 scoring.  I would like to share my views on his top 10 and open up the topic for discussion.

His top 10 were as follows:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Ryan Braun
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Carl Crawford
6. Prince Fielder
7. Tim Lincecum
8. Chase Utley
9. Matt Kemp
10. Miguel Cabrera

Let’s start right at the top.  I think Hanley should be the first overall pick with Pujols going second.  Although Pujols puts up the best numbers in the game, Hanley puts up better numbers relative to his position.  First base is an incredibly deep position with proven mashers such as Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau, and Adrian Gonzalez as well as up and coming sluggers such as Kendry Morales and Joey Votto.  Shortstop isn’t nearly as deep.  There’s a noticeable drop off after Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter, and Jimmy Rollins.  Not to mention the top shortstops after Hanley aren’t as safe as the top first basemen after Pujols.  As a result, I think Hanley is the clear cut choice with the first overall pick.

Another problem I have with his list is that Crawford at 5 is too high.  Cockcroft has Crawford ranked as the second best outfielder.  However, I would much rather have Kemp.  They’ll both hit for roughly the same average and score just about the same number of runs.  Kemp should hit around 30 home runs again next year and is a lock for 100 RBI.  Crawford on the other hand will be in the 15-20 HR and 65-80 RBI range.  Although Crawford will steal between 50 and 60 bases, Kemp can more than hold his own totaling 34 last year and 35 the year before.  Kemp is also 5 years younger and is just about to enter his prime while Crawford has most likely peaked.

A final problem I have with Cockcroft’s top 10 is that I don’t believe Lincecum should be drafted in the first round.  Although Lincecum is the best pitcher on the board, pitchers generally carry more risk than elite hitters because they are more likely to have season threatening injuries, i.e. Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb.  Since early round picks are all about minimizing risk, I would feel a lot more comfortable taking someone like Evan Longoria over Tim Lincecum.

These are my thoughts on Tristan’s top 10.  Now the floor is yours.  What’s your top 10 next year?  Also, what does your top 10 look like in a keeper league?

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ESPN’s 2010 Preview, Part 2

By on January 7, 2010 | Comments { 2 }

By: Bryan Curley (Email)

The other day, ESPN released some of their fantasy experts’ predictions for 2010. We recapped a few of these projections in Part 1 of this mini-series, and today we pick it back up with Part 2.

The AL Cy Young

Matthew Berry: Felix Hernandez
Eric Karabell: Jon Lester
Christopher Harris: Jon Lester
Jason Grey: Felix Hernandez
Pierre Becquey: Justin Verlander
A.J. Mass: Felix Hernandez
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Felix Hernandez

My Take: If you remember from my article on Who Will Be the Next Zack Greinke, Jon Lester is one of my favorite candidates. Verlander also cracked the list of pitchers poised for a Cy Young season since both of them had two of the three necessary conditions for breakout status: H/9 below 8.0, BB/9 below 3.0, and K/9 above 6.0. The man who garnered the most expert votes, Felix Hernandez, actually accomplished all three last season. After breaking into the majors at only 18 years of age, Hernandez has finally become the ace everyone expected. While Lester is a great candidate on a very good team, there are lots of other SP on that squad that could steal the show. It’s tough to imagine Greinke will be able to repeat his unbelievable performance, and with Halladay out of the AL, the stiffest competition is gone. Sabathia and Verlander both have a good shot, but I’m going with Hernandez.

The NL Cy Young

Matthew Berry: Tim Lincecum
Eric Karabell: Roy Halladay
Christopher Harris: Tim Lincecum
Jason Grey: Tim Lincecum
Pierre Becquey: Johan Santana
A.J. Mass: Matt Cain
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Tim Lincecum

My Take: Cockcroft also nominated Tommy Hanson as his dark-horse candidate, which means a total of five names were thrown into the pool by seven experts. Lincecum has won two in a row, Halladay won one back in 2003, and Santana has two himself (’04 and ’06) as well as three other top-five finishes. Throw into the mix Matt Cain, who had a career year in 2009, and Hanson, who ignored the usual rookie struggles, and you have a pretty wide open NL Cy Young race. Oh, and don’t forget about Brandon Webb, owner of a sparkling 3.27 career ERA, one Cy Young award (2006), and two second-place finishes. And in case you didn’t notice, his teammate, Dan Haren, is pretty good himself. That list doesn’t even begin to touch upon the handful of potential surprise pitchers (like Yovani Gallardo) who could suddenly put everything together. So how are we supposed to pick a Cy Young winner from a pool this large? It’s tough, but I’m going with Roy Halladay. He’s always been a ground ball pitcher with a career-worst GB:FB ratio of 1.71 (2009), so a move to Citizen Bank Park shouldn’t affect him too much, and facing NL lineups will only make him that much more devastating.

The AL Rookie of the Year

Matthew Berry: Scott Sizemore (DET)
Eric Karabell: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Christopher Harris: Austin Jackson (DET)
Jason Grey: Scott Sizemore (DET)
Pierre Becquey: Brett Wallace (TOR)
A.J. Mass: Desmond Jennings (TB)
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Brian Matusz (BAL)

My Take: Rookie of the Year is always the toughest to pick, and with Opening Day still over three months away a lot can change. We’ll throw a bunch of names at the wall and see what sticks since playing time is clearly the most crucial factor. As far as Scott Sizemore goes, Tigers’ GM, Dave Dombrowski, has already said, “We expect him to be our second baseman. We have not changed on Sizemore.” Another Tiger, Austin Jackson, is already slated to be getting the start on Opening Day as well. Carlos Santana can hit, but there’s a lot of people vying for that starting role in Cleveland. Brett Wallace is the newest Blue Jay, but playing time there is going to be tough to come by, and from everything I have heard, Jays’ manager Cito Gaston likes to stick with his veterans. Like Wallace and Santana, Desmond Jennings may find playing time hard to come by early on, so I’d rather pick a player who already has a good shot at a starting job. Brian Matusz is an interesting pick, and I’ll throw in his teammate, Chris Tillman, too. Of all the players mentioned here, though, I like Scott Sizemore’s chances the most. He already has the starting job (or so it seems), and he was nearly a 20/20 player in the minors last season, batting .303 with 17 HR, 66 RBI, and 21 SB. They felt comfortable enough to part with Polanco and haven’t made a run at Orlando Hudson, so I’m going to show as much confidence in Sizemore as they have.

The NL Rookie of the Year

Matthew Berry: Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Eric Karabell: Buster Posey (SF)
Christopher Harris: Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Jason Grey: Buster Posey (SF)
Pierre Becquey: Jason Heyward (ATL)
A.J. Mass:  Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Jason Heyward (ATL)

My Take: It sure seems as if there will be a lot more high-end rookie talent on display in the National League in 2010. The Giants are letting Bengie Molina go so they can hand the pitching staff over to 23-year old Buster Posey, the Braves will do whatever they can to give Jason Heyward every chance to win a starting OF job, and you all know the tale of the stupendous Stephen Strasburg. In truth, any of that trio could not only win Rookie of the Year, but they could become fantasy superstars by season’s end. Who is my pick to win the award, though? Mr. Jason Heyward. He has been touted as the next Ken Griffey Jr., and even if that is a bit much, consider his minor league resume: .318/.391/.508 with 164 R, 29 HR, 125 RBI, 26 SB and a solid 138:105 K:BB ratio in 1003 PA. Oh, and he’s only 20 years old! The kid is going to be a superstar, and I think it starts immediately.

The Fantasy Baseball MVP (best value for draft position)

Matthew Berry: Erik Bedard
Eric Karabell: Matt Wieters
Christopher Harris: Tommy Hanson
Jason Grey: Wade Davis
Pierre Becquey: Jason Heyward
A.J. Mass: Nyjer Morgan
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Jay Bruce

My Take: Whichever player wins this award, we can be sure he is one of three things: a guy finally realizing his immense potential (think Kendry Morales), a guy who has an inexplicably good season (think Ben Zobrist), or a guy coming back from injury (think Victor Martinez). All of the above selections have definite merit and as you will realize in coming weeks, I am a HUGE Matt Wieters fan (call me crazy, but I’m keeping him in my 10-team, 5-player keeper league). In the interest of throwing out a few more names, consider Brandon Webb and Diasuke Matsuzaka. According to Mock Draft Central, Webb was taken in the 11th round and Matsuzaka in the 12th round. Let’s not forget how fantastic Webb was in the years prior to last season. Earlier today, Rotoworld.com released a quote from Webb: “I’m hoping to go in and have a normal spring training. If we don’t make the playoffs and I’m not a Cy Young candidate, I’ll be disappointed.” As for Matsuzaka, he had a 18 W, a 2.90 ERA, and 8.3 K/9 in 2008 before the World Baseball Classic affected his conditioning regimen in ’09. He’s back and ready to go. As for hitters, Wieters was mentioned, but I also like Ian Stewart a lot. He had a 92/.313/30/101/19 season back in the minors (2004) and with Garrett Atkins gone, he will finally get the full-time job. Since he’s going in the 12th round, I think it’s a pretty good risk to take. One other guy to make note of is Corey Hart. He had back-to-back 20/20 seasons in ’07 and ’08, but since the All-Star Break in 2008 he has been pretty disappointing. With a draft position in the 160s on Mock Draft Central, here’s to hoping he puts it all together again.

The Highest Rated Player on Player Rater (ESPN has their system, but we like what we’ve done with PSR)

Matthew Berry: Hanley Ramirez
Eric Karabell: Tim Lincecum
Christopher Harris: Albert Pujols
Jason Grey: Albert Pujols
Pierre Becquey: Albert Pujols
A.J. Mass: Albert Pujols
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Albert Pujols

My Take: Pujols will be the highest rated player if position scarcity isn’t factored in. No one does what he does as well as he does, so according to ESPN’s formula, it will be Pujols. According to our formula, which of course does factor in position scarcity (I mean how can you not?) it will be Hanley Ramirez. And don’t give me any of that “Joe Mauer is awesome!” crap. He’s good, but not on Hanley’s level.

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ESPN Previews 2010, So I Will Too!

By on January 5, 2010 | Comments { 7 }

By: Bryan Curley (Email)

ESPN released some 2010 predictions for both football and baseball today, and I’ve been reading them over for a little while. I thought this would be a good time to get the conversation going between the self-proclaimed “Worldwide Leader In Sports,” Baseball Professor, and everyone else who wants to get involved. So what did ESPN’s crew of experts have to say?

Second Player Taken In Fantasy Leagues

Matthew Berry: Hanley Ramirez
Eric Karabell: Hanley Ramirez
Christopher Harris: Hanley Ramirez
Jason Grey: Hanley Ramirez

My Take: This question obviously assumes that Albert Pujols is going first overall, but is that really set in stone? Taking into account position scarcity, if Hanley and Albert put up seasons identical to their 2009s, then yes, Pujols should go first, but that is far from easy. Pujols’ 47 HR last season were the second-most of his career, and in ’07 and ’08 he hit only 32 and 37, respectively. We all know that ’03 through ’06 Pujols was legendary, with 2005 his worst season of the four in each of the three major categories (.330/41/117), but is that the Pujols you are sure to get? Hanley Ramirez is three years younger, has already been a 30/30 player, plays at a much scarcer position, hits for the same average as Pujols, and scores as many runs. Breaking it down by category, they tie average, tie runs, Albert wins HR and RBI, Hanley wins SB and plays at a weaker position. In all honesty, you can’t go wrong with either one, but I would probably take Hanley first since I am a huge proponent of position scarcity.

The First Starting Pitcher

Matthew Berry: Tim Lincecum
Eric Karabell: Tim Lincecum
Christopher Harris: Tim Lincecum
Jason Grey: Tim Lincecum

My Take: You could try to argue a few other guys, possibly Halladay or Sabathia, but I don’t think anyone is going to listen. No other pitcher can strikeout that many people and keep an ERA that low. And he does get a good amount of wins, too. And he pitches in the National League. It’s Lincecum number one.

The First Closer

Matthew Berry: Someone way too early for me to even care who it is
Eric Karabell: Mariano Rivera
Christopher Harris: Jonathan Papelbon
Jason Grey: Jonathan Papelbon

My Take: I’ll preface this by saying that Berry is exactly right. There is zero need to draft a closer in the rounds where the first few will go (probably fifth through eighth). Last year, neither of the two teams competing for the championship in my 10-team league drafted a single closer until the 17th round. Who did he and I end up getting that late? How about Brian Wilson, Chad Qualls, Heath Bell, Frank Francisco, and George Sherrill. When Sherrill was about to be traded, I got Jim Johnson, and then he became the closer. I also traded my fourth OF (Alex Rios) and a mediocre SP (Jonathan Sanchez) for Joe Nathan mid-season when someone else decided they were going to punt saves. Why pay for saves? If you are diligent enough, you can draft closers in late rounds that will get saves, then add a few more off free agency or through trades. Instead of getting Rivera or Papelbon in round six, get a real pitcher like Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez, or Clayton Kershaw who has more trade value and who’s production can’t as easily be replaced. But if I had to pick someone it would be Rivera.

The Second Catcher

Matthew Berry: Victor Martinez
Eric Karabell: Victor Martinez
Christopher Harris: Brian McCann
Jason Grey: Victor Martinez

My Take: On Opening Day, Brian McCann will be 26-years old. He has caught between 138 and 145 games each of the last three seasons, and before injuries slowed him last year, he was a top-two catcher. Victor Martinez is 31-years old and had serious injury concerns entering 2009. Despite those shortcomings, Martinez is the guy you want. He played 155 games last season and figures to get as much time this year because he plays in the American League and will be rotated through catcher, first base, and DH as the Red Sox try to get him as many AB as possible. He also has a little more protection in the lineup. In his last four healthy seasons, he has never batted under .300, and he’s drive in 100+ runs in his last two. McCann is much more erratic with batting averages ranging from the .270s to the .300s and has a career high of 94 RBI (2009). You can’t go wrong with either one, but I’ll take Martinez.

The AL MVP

Matthew Berry: Alex Rodriguez
Eric Karabell: Alex Rodriguez
Christopher Harris: Mark Teixeira
Jason Grey: Joe Mauer

My Take: New York and Boston won’t have anyone win the MVP because they have too many similar candidates each that will steal votes from each other (Rodriguez, Teixeira, Jeter in New York and Youkilis, Pedroia, Martinez in Boston). That leaves only a few teams that could have a player win the MVP: LA Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Twins, and Tigers. Of those teams, the best candidates are Kendry Morales, Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Ichiro Suzuki, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau. Whichever teams win the West and Central will probably have their players garner the most consideration, and if the Twins win the Central, then Mauer and Morneau will probably steal votes from each other. This means the only remaining candidates are Morales, Kinsler, Hamilton, Ichiro, and Cabrera. I still like the Twins and Angels to win their divisions, which means I’m going out on a limb. Kendry Morales, last year’s fifth place finisher, is my pick to win the AL MVP.

The NL MVP

Matthew Berry: Albert Pujols
Eric Karabell: Justin Upton
Christopher Harris: Albert Pujols
Jason Grey: Albert Pujols

My Take: Let’s use the same logic we did for the AL MVP to pick the NL winner. Unlike in the AL, there isn’t a team that has so much high-end talent that they can’t have player’s steal votes from each other. That means our contending teams are the Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, and Diamondbacks. That means possible candidates are Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Pablo Sandoval, Troy Tulowitzki, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton. Of those 14, Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Sandoval probably are not real contenders, and the winner will probably come from a playoff team. As of right now, my projected playoff teams are the Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks, meaning we have narrowed the field down to eight. If any team has players stealing votes, it’s the Phillies, so I won’t pick any of them. That leaves Manny, Kemp, Pujols, Upton, and Reynolds. Sadly, after going through all of this, how can I not pick Sir Albert.

The experts keep it rolling with their Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and some other types of questions, but I don’t want to overwhelm you so we’ll save some more of that for tomorrow.

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Positional Trends: 3-Year First Base Averages

By on December 28, 2009 | Comments { 0 }

By: Bryan Curley (Email)

Don’t forget to check out a review of last season’s first basemen to see who was legit and who wasn’t.

In an attempt to analyze the direction the position is heading, I decided to take a look at the last three years of averages for first basemen to see if I could find any trends that can help you come draft day. So what are we looking at?

  • Players for each season were divided into three categories depending on where they finished the regular season in terms of fantasy ranking: 1 to 5, 6 to 10, and 11 to 20. This lets us look at the elite starters, the average starters, and the first group of replacements, showing the depth of the position so you can decide if you want to jump on an elite starter or wait for one of the platoon-type players.
  • For a longer explanation, try this.

So take a look at each of the graphs below to get an idea of some of the trends we see developing. Click on each graph to enlarge.

Runs – Quick Analysis: For the third straight season, run totals for elite first basemen rose, which is interesting because the batting average among elite first basemen plummeted this season (which you can see below). Of course, mark Reynolds’ .260 average was a big part of that, but he made up for it with good speed (putting himself in scoring position). What’s the take-home message here? Any of the top 10 first basemen will get you good run totals, but if you miss out on an elite one, you will have to find that kind of production at another position, or by spot starting backups.

Homeruns – Quick Analysis: Homeruns showed extreme linear consistency over the last three seasons. After a brief drop in elite HR production in 2008 (Howard hitting 11 more than any other 1B), we saw a return to form in 2009 as the top four first basemen all belted 44 or more. The trends here are what you would expect, though. If you want elite HR power, get it early. If you miss on it, the longer you wait the less you’ll find.

RBI – Quick Analysis: I find it interesting how 2009 showed a good increase among RBI totals for elite starter, but a sizable decrease among RBI totals for average starters. This is most likely due to the drop off in production from players like Morneau (injury), Gonzalez (119 RBI in ’08, 100 in ’09), and Delgado and Huff dropping off the fantasy landscape. Last year, four of the 6-10 ranked first basemen tallied 115+ RBI, but in 2009 none did, and two fell under 100. This is probably an aberration and not a new trend, however, as the 2007 and 2008 RBI breakdown seems more indicative of the position.

Stolen Bases – Quick Analysis: Good luck finding anything of much value here, although if you recall what happened when we highlighted stolen bases for catchers, you’ll notice a similar trend. In case you didn’t read it, this is what I said:

It is interesting to note, however, that the first replacements have averaged more steals than the average starters each of the last three seasons, especially in 2009. If you consider the position as a whole, this makes sense. Remember that the average HR among the elite starters and average starters was relatively even, but what makes the elite starters better than the average starters is their ability to contribute in multiple categories. This means our average starters are usually going to be moderately talented sluggers without a complete game. What kind of players are consistently falling in this average starter group? Bengie Molina, Kelly Shoppach, A.J. Pierzynski, and Chris Iannetta are just a few of the players we’ve seen here in the last few seasons. All of them (perhaps aside from Pierzynski since he hits for good AVG too) are slugging specialists without much speed. The first replacements lack this slugging ability and are thus some of the quicker, smaller catchers such as Carlos Ruiz, Jason Kendall, and Ivan Rodriguez. This analysis is almost completely useless to you, but I always like when statistical analysis truly portrays real life.

While at first base the first replacements didn’t completely average more stolen bases than the average starters, but still, the explanation holds true. Sweet.

Batting Average  – Quick Analysis: Where to begin? Batting averages in 2007 appear to be the aberration in this group, as the batting average for average starters in ’07 was almost 15 points lower than either other year. This occurred mainly because Morneau and Berkman fell into this category and had down years in average. Oh, and perennial .260 hitter Adam Dunn was ranked here too. What I would take note of here is this: because of the depth at first base there are so many comparable players, some that hit for better average and some that hit for better power. They all fall in the top 8 to 10, but the specific order varies by year since they are clumped so closely. For example, just last season there were six players that had PSR Ratings in the approximate 8 to 10 range. This close grouping explains the great yearly variation.

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