Tag Archives | Albert Pujols

#77: Is Ryan Braun the first overall pick in 2012?

By on January 20, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Whoops.

Back when we put together our top 100 offseason questions, Ryan Braun was widely considered a reasonable first overall pick. He’s been among the best offensive weapons at any position in the entire league since he made his Major League debut back in 2007, and Braun’s .994 OPS last season led the league. He’s hit 30-plus homers and batted over .300 in four of five seasons, tallied over 100 RBI in every full season he’s played and finally became an elite source of steals by swiping 33 bags last year.

Now that’s all changed. Herpes or no herpes, Braun will almost certainly be suspended to start the 2012 season. Major League Baseball has to walk the hard line here and can’t give the reigning NL MVP a break. It would set a dangerous precedent. It would also make for a very short answer to question number 77.

We’ll push through the speculation and assume Braun won’t be getting picked first overall. Who does that leave as potential first overall picks? Depending on what school of thought you subscribe to, there are three potential options:

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Matt Kemp
  3. Troy Tulowitzki

If you were planning on picking anyone else, you should find one of our many colorful “Subscribe” buttons (they’re usually orange).

The case for Pujols

School of Thought: Slow and steady wins the race

Pujols has been the best player in fantasy over the last decade (it’s not even close), and in all likelihood he’ll be the best player in fantasy over the next three to five years. He’s a machine. Remember that “horrible” start he got off to last season, batting .245 at the end of April? By the end of the year, Pujols was sporting a solid .299/37/99 line with 104 runs scored and nine stolen bases. That season was good enough 14th overall — in a down year. In 2009 Pujols ranked first overall. In 2010 he ranked third. He’s as safe as they come.

Giving more ammo to the pro-Pujols camp, would you believe me if I said first base was scarce? OK, there’s definitely a few uber-elite options (Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder) but after that you round out the top 10 with Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko, Eric Hosmer, Mike Morse and Freddie Freeman. They’re all very good fantasy options in their own right, but there’s a very large gap between those top-tier guys and the likes of Hosmer, Morse and Freeman.

The case for Kemp

School of Thought: Go big or go home

Perhaps I’m exaggerating a bit by classifying Kemp as a “Go big or go home” type of selection, but of the three potential first overall picks, he has the biggest bust potential. He’s batted .297, .249 and .324 over the last three seasons, he strikes out over 20 percent of the time and he’s coming off a career year. In my mind those all add up to a risky pick at first overall, but he’s the guy I’m going with. I’m a sucker for elite homer/steal combinations and Kemp is the best of that bunch. His .380 BABIP scares the heck out of me, but his .380 xBABIP last season paints the picture of a pretty awesome follow up season in 2012.

Plus, if you’re in a five outfielder league, you’ll definitely love having a number one option like this. According to Mock Draft Central, Mike Stanton, Andrew McCutchen and Josh Hamilton are the sixth, seventh and eighth outfielders off draft boards this season, which means half of the teams in your league will have someone like them as their top outfielder. Kemp towers over each of them.

The case for Tulowitzki

School of Thought: Position scarcity all the way, baby!

Tulowitzki will post the worst overall numbers of these three players — and that’s a certainty — but when the next best options at the position include a former-elite coming off shoulder surgery (Hanley Ramirez), an injury-prone star who just signed a huge contract (Jose Reyes) and a few talented-yet-limited offensive options (Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus), you begin to see why there’s a legitimate case to be made here.

Tulo did rank 14th, 17th and 29th in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively, so he’s still going to post great numbers, but he’s not someone I’d go with. That is, unless he pulls a Braun and starts juicing (and somehow I know but Bud Selig doesn’t).

(Disclaimer: Baseball Professor does not condone the use of performance enhancing drugs.)

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Fantasy Impact: Angels Sign Both Pujols, Wilson

By on December 8, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

And boom goes the dynamite.

The Angels made two big moves today, that will make them immediate contenders for not just an AL West title, but a World Series as well. Let’s take a look at how Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson shake up the fantasy world.

What about Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales?

This can’t be good news for Kendrys Morales, who has been out for the better part of two seasons with a leg injury. You think the Angels would have made such an effort to sign Pujols if Morales was recovering well from surgery? If you own him in keeper leagues you have to be worried as to what is going on with his health.

As for Mark Trumbo, he was a great source of power and speed (29 HR/9 SB), but his anemic .291 OBP kept his value low. I can see him platooning in a OF/DH role with Bobby Abreu and he could also play some third base if needed. It’s not 100 percent certain how everything will settle, but it looks like everyone in the Angels lineup got a little boost in production.

The Angels have also come out and stated that they don’t plan on trading either Morales or Trumbo to make room for Pujols.

Albert’s switching leagues

A lot has been made about players moving from the AL to the NL and vice versa. I think it’s much ado about nothing really. We’ve seen Miguel Cabrera struggle at first and then come back to be the hitter we all expected. Last year, we had Adam Dunn and Adrian Gonzalez switch leagues with varying degrees of success. And there are many more examples, but no trend. This is a great situation for Pujols for two reasons: (1) The DH will help prolong his career and (2) after this season he will get to keep mashing on the Houston Astros (career .971 OPS).

The sample size is too small to tell if Pujols will be affected by the AL West ballparks as he’s only spent one three-game series in each, but we’re talking about the best hitter over the last decade. I think he can hang with the vast foul territories of The Coliseum.

How about that starting rotation?

The Angels have quietly formed one of the better starting rotations in the Major Leagues. Sure it doesn’t have the star-studded trio that the Phillies have, but Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and Wilson make for a great foursome. The move to the Angels means two things for Wilson: (1) He won’t face the Angels offense anymore (Thank God! They just got that Pujols guy!) and (2) he will be pitching a majority of his games away from the Ballpark in Arlington. Let’s start by taking a look at the first one:

In his two years as a starter, Wilson was pretty good against the Angels offense. His 3.14 ERA and 1.22 WHIP were right along his total numbers for the seasons so there’s really not much to say here. It will be interesting to see how he pitches against his former team, who are perennial monsters at the plate, but if we take a look at these second set of stats we can see reason to be optimistic.

Wilson has pitched very well in limited innings at Angles Stadium as a starter. In fact, his stats at the other three parks other than Texas are worlds better. Now the warning is that it’s a small sample size and, in the case for his new home park, he was facing the Angels anemic offense of the last two seasons, not the Rangers’ mashers. But still, Anaheim is known to be a pitchers park (ranked in bottom 10 in both runs and home runs the last two seasons).

Overall, I think it’s going to be a nice fit for fantasy owners of both Pujols and Wilson.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Fantasy Impact: Reyes to Miami Great News for Han-Ram Owners

By on December 6, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

UPDATE: After posting this piece we all received news from Ramirez that he doesn’t really want to play in Miami anymore. Assuming he’s traded that means the third base eligibility I get into below likely won’t materialize. You can probably go back to how you valued Ramirez previously, but only do so after you read his hilariously self-centered tweet.

Once all the excitement subsides surrounding the Marlins’ first real free agent splash, there are two realizations all Miami fans will have:

  1. Jose Reyes misses a lot of time hamstrung by his hamstrings
  2. That sparkling .337 average is a thing of the past

We still don’t know how the new ballpark will play, but my guess is it’ll be more hitter friendly than Citi Field. Over the last three seasons Reyes has averaged just 10 home runs per 150 games but in the prior three seasons when he called Shea Stadium home, Reyes averaged 15 home runs per 150 games. Of course, injuries over the last three seasons have probably robbed him of some power here and there, but that 33 percent decrease from Shea to Citi is significant. Reyes should see his home run rate improve in the new stadium.

The good news for Miami fans and Reyes owners alike is that the .337 average we saw last season wasn’t only fueled by luck; Reyes improved both his strikeout rate and walk rates. His 7.0 percent strikeout rate was easily a new single-season best (career 10.5%) and his 7.3 percent walk rate was higher than his career rate (6.9%).

Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison (if LoMo isn’t traded) also represent an upgrade over what Reyes had behind him in New York. Speaking of Ramirez, he’s the one who really benefits here from a fantasy standpoint. With Reyes at shortstop, Ramirez is forced to change positions to third base. With shortstop and third base two of the weakest fantasy positions, having eligibility at both for the foreseeable future is a boon to his value.

And Ramirez finally has someone ahead of him worth driving him. Last season Ramirez struggled badly, but even if he was at full strength his numbers would have suffered with the duo of Chris Coghlan and Emilio Bonifacio manning the leadoff spot and Omar Infante the team’s number two hitter. Reyes and Infante at one and two is much better.

And if Albert Pujols accepts the reported 10-year deal the Marlins are offering, things can only get better in South Beach.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

2011 Midseason Fantasy Rankings: First Base

By on July 14, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Position Breakdown

  • Top 25: 6 players
  • Top 50: 11 players
  • Top 100: 16 players
  • Top 200: 26 players
  • Highest Ranked Player: Adrian Gonzalez, BOS

Gonzalez has been better than advertised, Albert Pujols has been mortal and Paul Konerko‘s 2010 re-birth was no fluke. Baseball’s deepest offensive position didn’t disappoint, but it has actually been surprisingly top-heavy. Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto and Lance Berkman have shown virtually no weaknesses in their games and have been far and away better than any other first basemen thus far in the season.

For the second half, I’m tossing Pujols name into that elite upper echelon and dropping Berkman out due to lingering concerns over his ability to play at this level for a full season. Yes, I know he’s rededicated himself to his health and conditioning, and he still ranks in the top 10 (ninth) among all first basemen in my second half rankings, but there’s always that little bit of worry in the back of my mind.

1. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS | 64 R, .354, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 1 SB

Gonzalez has just 17 homers because he managed just one in April, however, this was expected as A-Gon was coming off shoulder surgery. He then blasted nine homers in May, six more in June and another in July. The power is there. The RBIs are there. And amazingly, the batting average is legit. He’s hitting .383 at Fenway, but that’s actually a sustainable average given how effectively he uses the left field wall. His .324 average on the road is just higher than the .315 mark he posted away from San Diego last season and he actually has lineup protection this time around. Gonzalez is the best player in baseball.

2. Miguel Cabrera, DET | 63 R, .311, 18 HR, 59 RBI, 1 SB

Choosing between Cabrera and Fielder is like choosing between Kate Upton and Kate Beckinsale. If you’re complaining about either then you’re an idiot. If there’s a difference it’s that Cabrera hits for a higher average and Fielder will probably tally a few more RBI. I like Cabrera’s whole package a smidge better.

3. Prince Fielder, MIL | 53 R, .297, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 0 SB

Just re-read what I wrote about Cabrera, mkay?

4. Albert Pujols, STL | 54 R, .280, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 5 SB

Pujols was the 14th-ranked first baseman in mid-May. He’s the eighth-ranked first baseman at the Break. He’s a freak of nature for coming back from a fractured forearm as quickly as he did and I have complete confidence in him going forward. I seriously wanted to put him second on this list, especially considering his 1.197 OPS in June, but along with our next guy they’re all too close to really differentiate.

5. Joey Votto, CIN | 59 R, .329, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 6 SB

Votto’s power from 2010 was a fluke. His HR/FB rate was crazy high and I doubt we’ll see him top 35 too many more times, but his average and the handful of steals he contributes are exactly what we expected.

6. Paul Konerko, CHW | 41 R, .319, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 1 SB

Konerko has scored fewer runs than anyone on this list until you get down to Adam Lind and Pablo Sandoval at 13th and 14th, respectively, but both of those guys missed time this season. The White Sox have just the 17th best offense in baseball this season and have only one other batter that’s been even remotely scary this season (Carlos Quentin). OK, Alexei Ramirez has been pretty solid, too, but the point is this isn’t the Yankees lineup. I’m surprised Konerko has 67 RBI, but the fact of the matter is he is still raking.

7. Mark Teixeira, NYY | 52 R, .244, 25 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB

Speaking of the Yankees’ lineup, Teixeira checks in at number eight. What can we say about Tex that hasn’t been said already? The man has forgotten how to hit for average and has become one of the preeminent power threats in the game.

8. Ryan Howard, PHI | 47 R, .257, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB

No more Mr. 40/140. Howard is still a second half beast, but the Phillies’ offense isn’t as scary on the field as it is on paper. Still, Howard’s 18 homers and 72 RBI are pretty nice.

9. Lance Berkman, STL | 54 R, .290, 24 HR, 63 RBI, 0 SB

This article dated June 4, 2011 is a pretty good summary of why Berkman is a completely different player than we saw last season. While I agree with everything in that article, I still have a hard time believing he’ll keep this rate up all summer though with those 35-year-old knees patrolling the outfield.

10. Kevin Youkilis, BOS | 52 R, .285, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 1 SB

Youk had 15 RBI in April, 19 in May, 21 in June and, if July was a full, 25-game month, he’d be on pace for 22. His slow April (.218 average) is well behind him and the power is starting to come around. Stick him between Gonzalez and David Ortiz and you have what might be the cushiest lineup spot in all the land.

11. Adam Lind, TOR | 37 R, .300, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 1 SB

Lind has just .260 at-bats on the season, fewer than anyone on this list except Sandoval. Despite missing so much time he has just two fewer homers than Cabrera, one fewer than Gonzalez and one more than Pujols. Remember when Lind batted .117 against left-handed pitchers last season? He doesn’t. He’s hitting .314 against southpaws in 2011. Lind is back to 2009 form. If he scored more runs and I had bigger cojones I might have ranked him as high as seven or eight. He’s a great bargain player in the second half.

12. Michael Young | 42 R, .323, 8 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB

Young has been up around .340 most of the season before struggling at the start of June, but he ended it nicely with five straight multi-hit games, four of which he homered in, and now he’s back up to .323 with a less-depressing-but-still-disappointing eight home runs. At least the RBI are there.

13. Ben Zobrist, TB | 59 R, .269, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 10 SB

You’re probably using Zobrist at second base or in the outfield, but nevertheless he’s tied for second among all first basemen in runs scored and leads the position in steals. He’s probably a .270 hitter but he has modest speed and pop and bats second in a lineup that features Evan Longoria. Expect more of the same going forward from the Zorilla.

14. Pablo Sandoval, SF | 26 R, .303, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB

Kung Fu Panda currently has a 21-game hitting streak and is slugging .503 on the season. Like Lind, a lost 2010 season is in the rear-view.

15. Gaby Sanchez, FLA | 46 R, .293, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB

Sanchez is turning into a nice first baseman here. He helps in the averages (.293/.374/.472) and has 20-25 home run potential. Kind of what everyone thought Billy Butler would become. More on him later.

16. Michael Morse, WAS | 37 R, .306, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB

You’re either going to love him or absolutely hate him. Morse is a streaky hitter, who disappointed out of the gate after a promising spring training only to burst out with the best May/June numbers in the majors. The end of the season numbers will be fine, but don’t feel the need to keep him in the starting lineup at the first sign of a slump.

17. Victor Martinez, CLE | 37 R, .316, 6 HR, 50 RBI, 1 SB

You look at Martinez’s stat line the same way you like at your hot cousin. Sure it looks nice, but you would never go to bed with it. I want more power and runs (in Martinez’s stats, not in girls).

18. Michael Cuddyer, MIN | 41 R, .298, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB

Cuddyer is always an interesting fantasy player to me. It seems like the only years he is worth owning are when Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are injured, leaving him as the RBI guy in the middle of the lineup. Good combo of speed and power at the first base position.

19. Carlos Pena, CHC | 43 R, .225, 19 HR, 49 RBI, 0 SB

Pena got off to a horrioble start in April hitting just .158 with zilch in the home run department.  Since then he has hit .244 with 19 home runs. Seems like he has warmed up to National League pitching wouldn’t you say?.

20. Carlos Santana, CLE | 41 R, .230, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 3 SB

Santana is better utilized as a catcher in fantasy, but he still has some pop and is even more valuable in OBP leagues. Santana’s walk rate is a ridiculously high 17.5 percent and a lot of it is because he barely lifts that piece of lumber off his shoulder. His 35.8 swing percentage is fourth lowest in the league. Someone needs to tell him that home runs are more important than getting on base!

21. Eric Hosmer, KC | 25 R, .268, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 2 SB

Sure Hosmer is the young prospect that has all the upside, but since coming up he’s struggled a bit adjusting to big league pitching. I see him hitting close to .270 and 10 home runs the rest of the way. He’s also a sleeper in the RBI department because the Royals lineup isn’t as bad you may think (10th in runs, 12th in OPS).

22. Freddie Freeman, ATL | 39 R, .274, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 2 SB

Freeman got off to a painfully slow start, but he’s really come into his own. He’s starting to swing more, which I’m fine with as long as he’s mashing the ball. He’s just 21 (turning 22 in Sept.) and I can see him putting up numbers very similar to Hosmer in the second half, but I’m sure you knew that already by looking at the rankings.

23. Billy Butler, KC | 36 R, .294, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 1 SB

Time for America’s biggest disappointment in baseball. OK, that might be a little harsh, but when is he going to start hitting home runs!? He actually increased his ground ball rate to 49.1 percent and is hitting fly balls at a paltry 29.5 percent. Since his very promising 2009 season (.301, 51 doubles, 21 HR) his ISO has dropped steadily from .191 to .121. The conversion for that is one Starlin Castro, or three Jose Bautista‘s.

24. Adam Dunn, CWS | 24 R, .160, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB

I am so confused by Dunn’s sudden demise that I don’t even know what to write here. He’s hit at least 38 home runs in every season since 2004 for Pete’s sake! I don’t even know who Pete is, but I bet you he is just as appalled as I am. Yes, Dunn has been horrible, but if something clicks and he puts together a 20-home run second half would you be totally surprised? Might as well make a low-ball offer and see if you can get him on the cheap.

25. Todd Helton, COL | 38 R, .321, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 0 SB

Honestly, the only difference between Helton and Butler is that Helton has more power, but worse health. I side with health now, but not later when I’m eating a Baconator at Wendy’s.

Notable Omissions

Howard Kendrick, LAA | 43 R, .302, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 9 SB

His skill set is perfect for a second baseman, not at first. If you have Kendrick regularly starting at first base there is something wrong with your team. Go fix it.

Carlos Lee, HOU | 35 R, .268, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 3 SB

He’s showing his age with diminished power. Not completely worthless, but in a bad lineup I don’t think he is top 25 material.

Justin Morneau, MIN | 16 R, .225,  4 HR, 21 RBI, 0 SB

I just ran the numbers and Morneau has been dropped in 100 percent of doctor’s fantasy leagues. That can’t be good.

Ike Davis, NYM | 20 R, .302, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB

Davis is currently trying to avoid season-ending microfracture surgery on his ankle. It’s a shame too because he was having one helluva season.

Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | 68 R, .312, 25 HR, 79 RBI, 7 SB (Double-A)

Juan Miranda? Xavier Nady? I mean c’mon this guy at least deserves a chance over those guys.

George Fitopoulos contributed to this post. It’s up to you to figure out how and where. Feel free to weigh in with your input in the comments section or on our Twitter @BaseballProf.

Read full story · Comments { 1 }

Trying to predict the rest of the 2011 season

By on June 2, 2011 | Comments { 3 }

So the baseball season is about one-third completed. The Cleveland Indians have the best winning percentage in baseball with the third-best run differential in the majors. Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore have sucked. Yeah, you heard right.

Adam Wainright is out for the season, Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols have struggled mightily and the team doesn’t have a closer, yet the Cardinals sit in first place in the NL Central.

The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has the major’s best ERA (okay, so that isn’t a huge surprise), but did you expect it to be because of Jair Jurrjens‘ 1.51 ERA through 65 2/3 innings?

The major-league leader in home runs is Jose Bautista with 20 (again, not a huge surprise), but Matt Joyce on top with a .361 batting average? (Insert fat black woman “Oh no he didn’t”) Yes he has.

Wainwright, Kendrys Morales, Buster Posey, Jorge de la Rosa, Daisuke Matsuzaka all out for the season. David Wright, Matt Holliday, Francisco Liriano, Joe Mauer, Ike Davis, Shane Victorino, Jayson Heyward, Delmon Young, Josh Johnson, Joe Nathan, Matt Garza have all seen time on the DL. You could fill an entire All-Star roster emergency room with that group.

And we aren’t even going to start with the overhaul on closers this season.

Cliche alert!

If you could have predicted this start to the 2011 season, you should be in Vegas—and take me with you.

It’s nearly impossible to predict the future in sports, which is why people lose a lot of money through betting and fortune telling isn’t a real profession. Sorry Miss Cleo…

That being said, I predict that I will give my thoughts to some of the first two month’s big stories—and you will listen.

Dan Uggla has been baseball’s unluckiest hitter

It’s true that Uggla has been unlucky (.186 BABIP), but he’s not helping his cause either with his increased ground ball rate (45.2%) and lowered line drive rate (13.7%). It seems to me he’s pressing at the plate as he is swinging at more pitches off the plate (26.4%) and more pitches overall (47.9%). This has led to fewer walks and until he shows that he is comfortable at the plate I would sit him.

Ted Lilly is about to break out in a big way

It was around this time last year that Lilly turned his season around and was one of the better pitchers of the second half. He has thrown three straight quality starts while compiling an impressive 15 K:1 BB ratio. He currently has a 4.22 ERA and his strikeouts are down from last year so there might be an opportunity to buy low, but the window is closing fast. Throughout his career the highest strikeout totals come in June (7.63 K/9), August (7.87) and September (7.97).

Trade Albert Pujols while you still can

Pujols has been one of the more peculiar players this year as his stuggles are unprecedented. Maybe it’s an undisclosed injury, or the weight of his impending free agency. Whatever it is, owners don’t know whether to cut bait or stay patient with the perennial slugger. I’m not telling you that you have to trade him away at any cost because he should turn it around this year, but if you could get an elite player in return still I would pull the trigger. Players I would trade Pujols straight up for are Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp (keeper league only), Evan Longoria (keeper league only) and Ryan Braun.

Curtis Granderson is fantasy baseball’s MVP through two months

It’s no secret why Granderson is enjoying all of this success right now—he is finally hitting left-handed pitching. Last year he batted .234 with four home runs and 41 K/13 BB in 158 at-bats against lefties. Those numbers currently are .303 with nine home runs and 18 K/4 BB in 66 at-bats. At this pace he will easily eclipse the 30/30 mark and become this year’s Carlos Gonzalez. And then next year we will search for that year’s Granderson. And the world will keep spinning.

Read full story · Comments { 3 }

Albert Pujols checks in as 14th best first baseman of 2011

By on May 26, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Maybe Albert Pujols is mortal after all. The man who has never batted lower than .312 in a single season is currently batting .261. His previous career worst walk rate was 10.2 percent way back in his rookie season, but thus far he’s only walking 8.9 percent of the time. Pujols has averaged nearly 41 homers and 123 RBI per season for a decade, but through 51 games he’s only on pace for 25 and 83. Could we really see King Albert finish a season batting .261 with 25 homers and 83 RBI?

Forget all of the earthquakes, tsunamis and tornados. Pujols’ sudden decline is the strongest evidence those damn Mayans might be right.

But for every struggling star there’s an equally unexpected positive performer ready to take his place. Below is a list of the top 15 first basemen through the season’s first eight weeks according to Yahoo!

Here are a few of my thoughts on just what’s happened at the game’s premier offensive position:

  • I guess drafting Adrian Gonzalez with a mid-first round pick wasn’t so crazy after all. The power was slow to develop as many expected, but right now he’s the game’s fifth best player with a league-leading 43 RBI and a Pujolsian .340 average. As a Red Sox fan I can attest to the fact that Gonzalez is abusing the Green Monster and that bloated batting average is no fluke. With eight home runs in May alone, Gonzalez has a serious shot at a 40-homer, 140-RBI season that would make even Ryan Howard jealous.
  • Lance Berkman has collected just one home run and three RBI over his last 10 games, but he’s also batted .321 (9-for-28) over that span with 12 walks to just five strikeouts. I’m still on the “sell Berkman ASAP” bandwagon because his age and the lack of a DH in the National League make me wonder how long he can keep this up. People in head-to-head leagues should be very wary of Berkman because of the strong possibility of a poor September when he would have already put 120-plus games on those old knees of his.
  • Joey Votto appears to be more of a 25-30 home run guy and not the 37-homer monster we saw last season. He doesn’t hit enough fly balls (just 31.5% this season, career 34.9%) and his HR/FB rate was insane last year (25.0%). He’s better than what he’s shown thus far, though.
  • I expected to see Mark Teixeira rebound in the batting average department after he batted .256 last year with a .268 BABIP, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Right now he’s batting .253 with a .244 BABIP. Maybe that’s just who he is now.
  • It’s rare to see a player with second base eligibility rank so highly in the first base rankings, but Howie Kendrick is doing just that with an absurdly well-rounded season. Pause for a moment, though. After hitting four home runs in the first eight games on the season, Kendrick has homered just three times in his past 37 games.
  • Gaby Sanchez is the real deal and it’s a crime he’s owned in just 84 percent of leagues. Remember when we all raved about Billy Butler and his ability to hit for a good average with doubles gap power? Butler never cashed in on all those doubles and became a hollow .300 hitter by first base (and now DH) standards. Sanchez hits a good amount of fly balls with a modest HR/FB rate, and while I don’t expect him to become a consistent 30 home run threat, he does a little bit of everything and could be a 100 RBI hitter.
  • Ben Zobrist had 10 of his 28 RBI in one day, meaning he has just 18 in every game that wasn’t on April 28. Regardless, I do still like Zobrist a lot because of his great position eligibility, his ability to score a ton of runs, his high walk rate and his potentially lethal power/speed combo.
  • Kevin Youkilis is really turning his season around. He’s improved his average from .240 to .275 over the last 10 games and is batting .333 with 3 homers, 17 RBI and an OPS of 1.000 in May.
  • I mentioned Howard earlier, but where has the power gone?! He recently went seven games without a hit and, after his game-tying 10th inning blast last night, has just two RBI since May 13 (both solo homers). Thankfully he has hit in five straight games now with three multi-hit efforts and those two solo homers during the mini-streak.

You can follow Baseball Professor on Twitter @BaseballProf and get our updates in your feed reader!

Read full story · Comments { 1 }

St. Louis Cardinals: 2011 Fantasy Team Preview

By on March 6, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The Cardinals’ World Series hopes took a huge blow with the announcement that Adam Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the rest of the season. Luckily for fantasy owners, it’s easier to replace him than it is for the Cardinals. Check out George Fitopoulos’ post if you’re looking for some of those inexpensive replacements.

Even without Wainwright, the Cardinals have a lot of talent. Specifically, they have a lot of high-end talent but value can also be found throughout their roster. Let’s take a look at some of those players and figure out what we can expect from them in 2011.

Guys I’m Targeting

Albert Pujols, 1B – Since Pujols goes first overall in every draft, you don’t really have the opportunity to target him, unless you’re in an auction draft of course. Even though first base is incredibly deep this year, Pujols transcends the position with his gaudy numbers. And he’s one of the few players you can be confident that a contract dispute won’t affect his on-field production.

Matt Holliday, OF – There are a lot of talented outfielders but few boast the consistency of Holliday. Every year he bats .300 and hits 25-30 home runs with 100 RBI and double digit stolen bases. He may not have the upside that Josh Hamilton and Matt Kemp have but I’ll take the guaranteed production any day of the week.

Colby Rasmus, OF – If it wasn’t for his on-again, off-again feud with Tony La Russa, Rasmus would be generating more buzz than Charlie Sheen’s Twitter account. He’s only 24 and he hit 23 home runs while swiping 12 bases last year. His strikeout rate is a little troubling, but since Rasmus is currently the 27th outfielder being drafted in ESPN drafts, I’ll take a chance that he could be this year’s Carlos Gonzalez.

Ryan Franklin, RP – I never pay for saves because I can always get guys like Franklin late in the draft. He’s had an ERA under four for four consecutive seasons and his WHIP was 1.03 last year. More importantly, he has a firm grip on the closer’s job so I don’t have to worry about anyone stealing saves from him. Since Franklin is usually not one of the first 20 closers taken, I can sure up other positions in the middle rounds knowing that he’ll still be available later in the draft.

Guys I’m Drafting…If They Fall Far Enough

Chris Carpenter, SP – Hamstring issue are always troubling for pitchers because they use their legs to push off the mound but Carpenter’s hamstring injury seems to be minor. Even though his strikeout rate is dwindling he can still be a real asset in wins, ERA and WHIP. I wouldn’t draft him over guys like Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels or even Yovani Gallardo but if he falls beyond that group don’t be afraid to scoop him up.

Ryan Theriot, SS – I’m not targeting someone like Theriot because I’m doing everything in my power to secure a top five shortstop since the position is so shallow this year, but I have no problem waiting for him if I don’t get one of the top guys. Theriot should provide a solid batting average, 20-plus stolen bases and a lot of runs batting leadoff in front of Pujols, Holliday and Rasmus.

Jaime Garcia, SP – I’m not sure why Garcia isn’t getting more preseason love. Sure his 2.70 ERA is likely unsustainable but his FIP was still 3.41. His changeup is devastating and helped him strike out 7.27 batters per nine innings. I understand that he didn’t finish the year strong but you have to figure that in his second big league season he’ll be more equipped to handle the rigors of a full year. It doesn’t make sense to me that a rookie who pitches in the AL East like Jeremy Hellickson is going 30 picks before Garcia, an NL Central pitcher who had an exceptional rookie year.

Guys I’m Not Drafting

Lance Berkman, 1B/OF – First it’s his knee, now it’s his elbow. Berkman needs to DH in order to stay healthy but unfortunately he has to roam the outfield for a National League team. He’ll no longer bat .300 and he’ll be lucky to hit 20 home runs. The RBI opportunities he once had batting third for the Astros will no longer be there as he won’t sniff the middle of the Cardinals lineup. People will still draft Berkman based on name value but do yourself a favor and draft guys like Gaby Sanchez, Ryan Raburn or Travis Snider instead.

Guys I’m Keeping an Eye On

David Freese, 3B – Freese is recovering from two ankle surgeries but he’s getting closer to making his spring debut. He has a .299 batting average in 271 career major league at-bats, which is not surprising since his career minor league average is .308. Freese also flashed power in the minors as he hit 26 home runs in 2008 with the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate. If he can stay healthy he could provide nice value at third base.

Jake Westbrook, SP – Westbrook is the latest passenger on the Dave Duncan pitcher resurrection train. Before coming over to the Cardinals in a midseason trade from Cleveland, Westbrook had an ERA of 4.65 and a WHIP of 1.39 to go along with a K/9 of 5.17. However, his numbers with St. Louis were markedly better: 3.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 6.6 K/9. It wouldn’t surprise me if Duncan transforms Westbrook into a valuable pitcher just like he did with Joel Pineiro.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • About BaseballProf
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Contact
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009