Tag Archives | Aaron Hill

Travis Snider: 2011 Fantasy Sleeper

By on February 5, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

So it’s the end of the draft and you feel like you could use another outfielder. You see some familiar names: Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez and Alfonso Soriano. I’ll draft one these guys you think to yourself.

But here’s a better idea: Draft Travis Snider instead.

After spending parts of three seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, Snider heads into the 2011 season as the team’s unquestioned starting right fielder. Still just 23 years old, the former first round pick is on the cusp of justifying his once top prospect status.

Power is Snider’s calling card. In 612 career major league at-bats he has slugged 25 home runs. Last year he smacked 14 homers in only 298 at-bats, good for an AB/HR ratio of 21.3. To put that in perspective, Snider hit home runs at a more frequent rate than Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley.

Snider’s ISO last year was an impressive .208, which was better than Braun, Ramirez and Utley and just .01 less than former home-run king Prince Fielder.

We know Snider can hit for power, but will he be a drain on your batting average? The answer is no. While he batted only .255 last year, it wasn’t for lack of solid contact. Nearly one quarter (24.3%) of his hits were line drives, which ranked third among players with at least 300 plate appearances. Snider is also a career .302 hitter in the minor leagues, with a career .339 batting average in Triple-A so the track record is there. And even though Snider is a lefty, there’s no need to worry about how he’ll fare against southpaws. Last year he hit left-handed pitchers nearly as well as he did right-handers.

If you’re not quite a believer in Snider’s talents just yet, check out how he finished his season in the month of September: .304 AVG| 13 R | 6 HR | 9 RBI | 2 SB.

I expect Snider’s strong finish last season to carry over to this year. With another year of experience and a full season of at-bats under his belt he’s destined to become a good source of power that won’t hurt your batting average in the process. The RBI opportunities will be there as well with Rajai Davis, Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista and Adam Lind hitting in front of him. And he might even steal a few bases.

As you approach the end of your draft, remember there’s little reason to draft an aging player with a declining skill set over a young player like Snider who is on the verge of breaking out.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.279 AVG | 72 R | 26 HR | 81 RBI | 7 SB

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Podcast 1/21: Discussing Our Rankings

By on January 21, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

With Baseball Professor’s 2011 fantasy baseball rankings up and running, Chris, Bryan and George get together and pick apart each other’s work. Topics include the Indians’ Carlos Santana, Blue Jays’ Aaron Hill, Royals’ Billy Butler and many more players you need to know about for the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season.

Click to listen

By: Baseball Professor

 

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Aaron's Not Over the Hill Yet

By on January 14, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

In the conversation of 2010′s disappointments, Aaron Hill‘s name is at the top of the list, and deservedly so. Hill’s 2009 season, where he hit .286 and mashed 36 home runs with 108 RBI, earned him an ADP of 77.4 according to ESPN.

In 2010, Hill rewarded those who drafted him with 26 home runs, but he only hit .205 with 68 RBI.

When there is such a drastic change in batting average performance, it’s usually because of line-drive percentage. Lo-and-behold, Hill only hit line drives 10 percent of the time in 2010 when he maintained a 21-percent rate for the first five seasons of his career. The huge drop in line drives contributed to his .196 BABIP in 2010, which is much lower than his prior career BABIP of .307.

One reason for Hill’s sudden drop in line-drive percentage was his pitch selection. In 2010, he swung at 31.3 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, up 4.8 points from 2009. On those swings, he made contact 70.9 percent of the time, up 10.1 points from 2009. Increased contact on bad pitches—it’s harder to hit line drives when you’re rolling over on sliders in the dirt—is one of the reasons Hill’s line-drive percentage dipped, and thus, dropped his batting average.

Pitchers probably took note after 2009 that Hill was hitting most of his home runs to left field. While I don’t know for sure, it is safe to assume that a lot of those swings on pitches outside the strike zone came on pitches thrown outside. If Hill can lay off those pitches and force opposing pitchers to come inside, Hill could be in for a bounce back.

2011 Fantasy Outlook

While Hill’s plate approach suffered a bit in 2010, there were some signs that Hill could approach his 2009 level again. First, Hill posted a career-high 7.1 walk percentage, and while his strikeouts rose to 16.1 percent, that is more around his career norm. Also, Hill’s .189 ISO showed that his power stayed despite the drop in batting average. He maintained  a HR/FB rate over 10 percent, which is a more sustainable rate than his 14.9 mark in 2009, but also shows that his 36 home runs were not a total fluke in 2009.

Hill was one of five second basemen to hit over 20 home runs, and don’t expect Kelly Johnson to be among those names in 2011. With so few second basemen hitting for power these days, Hill has some added value in fantasy.

The biggest question regarding Hill’s projected value is whether he can up his line-drive rate to a more respectable level in the future. If he can go back to his levels pre-2009, Hill should have no trouble going back to being one of the better second basemen in fantasy baseball. Baseball is a game of constant adjustments, and while pitchers got the best of him in 2010, I expect Hill to come back and return close to his 2009 form.

The Blue Jays already have hitters such as Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Vernon Wells at the top of the lineup, so Hill should have plenty of RBI opportunities and should look more like his 2009 self, rather than the shell we saw in 2010.

2011 Fantasy Projection

.278 | 82 R | 26 HR | 91 RBI | 3 SB

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Sunday Survey – Week 5

By on May 3, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

We’ve been a bit lax in our coverage these last two weeks while we dealt with a minor site redesign and some improved back-end support.

The result is a better, sleeker, improved Baseball Professor. To prove we’re back with our tremendously tremendous coverage (to quote the announcers from the Bruins-Flyers series), I present to you this week’s Sunday Survey.

In case you don’t know what this is, each week we send a series of questions to a select number of writers/bloggers we’ve deemed knowledgeable, and they send back their answers for us to compile into one informative post. Each week we also let one member of the Baseball Professor staff chime in. This week it’s me.

Here are the survey questions and answers for week five.

Q. In the past weeks, the Mets have called up Ike Davis and the Rangers have called up Justin Smoak. Both have been nothing short of impressive in the minors, so if you had to gamble on one of them to break out this season, which would you take?

Mark Schruender – Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove

Hmm…The Ballpark in Arlington or that endless patch of grass in New York? We don’t know how well either of these guys will adjust to the pitchers who will soon make adjustments on them, so I have to go on the ballparks. I’ll take Smoak.

Matt Gelfand – Bleacher Report

I actually just dropped Davis for Smoak in my 12-team RotoWire Staff league. The reason? Smoak’s track record. He was the No. 13 ranked prospect by Baseball America heading into the season, and hit .290 with 21 doubles and 12 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Ike Davis entered 2010 at No. 62, but got the call-up earlier than expected because the pop-less Mets couldn’t live with Fernando Tatis as their starting first baseman anymore (not that I blame them). That being said, I still believe Smoak’s got a higher ceiling, and once that Rangers lineup starts to click, RBI opportunities will be plentiful whether he’s batting out of the 6 or 7 hole.

Bryan Curley - Baseball Professor

Currently I have Ike Davis on my roster, but that’s only because he was called up first. I would have dropped Davis for Justin Smoak had I acted quickly enough, but someone else beat me to him. Davis has the clearer path to an everyday starting job since Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy are the only obstacles between Davis and at-bats while Smoak deals with Chris Davis, who Texas keeps giving extended chances, but I think Smoak is the better hitter in a better ballpark. He’s the guy to get.

Q. There are plenty of consensus top 100 players struggling right now (many of which are on my team unfortunately). Of these three, which do you think is least likely to rebound: Aramis Ramirez, Aaron Hill or Carlos Lee?

Mark Schruender - Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove

I hate to say it, but Aramis Ramirez. I wonder if the shoulder injury that caused him to miss half of last year is still bothering him and keep in mind this guy has never been one to go for perfect attendance. I think Aaron Hill is a great player and I am most confident that he will turn it around – remember he is a couple weeks behind so his rate numbers will adjust faster.

Matt Gelfand - Bleacher Report

There’s cause for concern with each player. Is Ramirez’s shoulder injury from last season still lingering? Hopefully it hasn’t sapped all of his power. Plus he’s had at least one strikeout in all but six games this season, and sports a relatively ugly 25:8 strikeout/walk ratio. We all expected a regression from Hill, but many figured his numbers would resemble that of 2007 (.291/17/78/4) rather than the putrid .150 he’s currently batting (with one home run). A hamstring injury, which caused him to miss 15 days, may be partly to blame. And Lee, surprisingly the only one without a home run on this list, is mired in one of the worst slumps of his career. For what it’s worth, April is typically his worst month (.259 BA), then he tends straightens things out over the remainder of the season. The four-year plunge in his home run totals from 2006 to 2009  (37, 32, 28, 26) is cause for concern though. Least likely to rebound? Common sense would say Hill, who doesn’t quite have the track record of the other two, making a drastic regression an actual possibility.

Bryan Curley - Baseball Professor

This question obviously comes down to two aging players and one player on the rise in his career (although he’s technically aging, too). Aramis Ramirez has injury concerns, but he picked right back up where he left off last year, especially at the end of the season when he batted .302 with four home runs and 19 RBI in September and October. He did miss time this spring with a triceps injury, so maybe that time off is hurting him early on this year (like it is with Raul Ibanez). I still think Aaron Hill will rebound, but not quite reach last season’s numbers, so I’m going with the oldest player of the bunch: the almost-34 year old Carlos Lee.

Q. This is more of an open-ended question. After a torrid start to the season, Francisco Liriano has consistently worked his way up my starting pitching rankings. As of Friday, April 30, Liriano is 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 27 strikeouts in 29 innings pitched. The only possible blemish to his stellar start are the 10 walks allowed. What is your take on how Liriano’s 2010 season will play out?

Mark Schruender - Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove

My biggest concern with Liriano is how cautious the Twins will be with him going forward. His career high in innings pitched is 136.2 innings, but he’s on pace to throw well over 200 innings right now. That sort of jump is not in the best interest in the long term future of Liriano and consequently the Twins. He had 112 pitches in his last start and I am anxious to see if that is more the exception than the rule going forward. Whatever innings he does give this season though look great obviously.

Matt Gelfand - Bleacher Report

As a Liriano owner, I’d like to say a 20-win season and Cy Young award are in the cards.  And while those expectations are probably pipe dreams, it’s hard to ignore Liriano right now since he’s pitching like a legitimate ace.  With respect to Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, Liriano is the one pitcher on that Twins staff that teams truly fear right now.  His heralded slider is as devastating as advertised, and his fastball is touching 95.  I think the fact that it’s been nearly four years since he’s been truly effective may actually work to his advantage, since the book on Liriano in other team’s clubhouses is probably quite dusty.  I’d be weary of a second half drop-off due to fatigue, but based on his stats right now, 15 wins and a sub-3.50 ERA doesn’t seem too outlandish.

Bryan Curley - Baseball Professor

I just bumped Liriano from 34 to 17 in my weekly rankings so you obviously see how highly I rank him, but I’m totally selling on him if you can get good value in return. While he pitches, he will continue to produce as a top-15 starter, but health is never a certainty with someone who’s had the injury history Liriano has. The Twins will likely take it easy with him as the season progresses, especially if they run away with the division which is certainly a possibility.

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Apr. 10: Chris Carpenter Pushed Back to Sunday, Aaron Hill Still Out, and Rangers Stick with Julio Borbon

By on April 10, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

It’s Saturday, which means you’d better be sitting in front of your TV all day with the DirecTV Extra Innings package. Even if you aren’t, check out the Fantasy Headlines for Saturday, April 10:

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Quick Hits: ADP Reports

By on March 24, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

With the season quickly approaching and fantasy baseball drafts in full force, it’s time we take a look at some average draft positions that I think are too high or too low for my liking.

  • I already wrote about why I think Geovany Soto (181.7) will bounce back in 2010 so you can imagine why I believe Soto is a great value in drafts. Just one year removed from a Rookie of the Year campaign, Soto can provide great offensive numbers in the 19th round of 10-team mixed leagues.
  • Another great value at catcher, Kurt Suzuki (224.1) provides the same numbers as Yadier Molina (182.1) but 40 picks later. He also throws some sneaky steals into the mix.
  • It’s not like Adrian Gonzalez (27.8) has punched his ticket out of San Diego just yet, and until I see him in another uniform he isn’t worth a third rounder. He’s going 14 picks ahead of Joey Votto, 20 picks ahead of Justin Morneau, and 33 picks ahead of Kendry Morales, all of whom could match Gonzalez’s production in 2010.
  • It seems like every year Paul Konerko (218) slips to the later rounds, but with three-year averages of .260/27/80 you would think he was getting drafted earlier than the 22nd round in 10-team mixed leagues.
  • So far, Brian Roberts (42.9) is the fifth second baseman off the board and trending up despite some recent struggles with his back. Still, I would rather have Brandon Phillips (44.5), Ben Zobrist (64.6) and Aaron Hill (73.2) unless all signs point to Roberts being 100 percent healthy going into the season.
  • Third base is very weak this year, but Troy Glaus (217.2) could provide some good production late in the draft. He will be starting at first base for the Atlanta Braves this year, which means he will have dual eligibility as well.
  • Yeah he hit just .223 last season, but Jay Bruce (105.8) has been a home run machine in his first two seasons. In 2008, he hit 21 home runs in just 418 at bats (19.9 AB/HR) and followed it up with an even better season in 2009 as he hit 22 home runs in just 345 at bats (15.7 AB/HR). Outside of Jason Heyward you won’t find better power potential in the 11th round.
  • There is a lot of speed in the outfield this year and it’s proven by the likes of Juan Pierre (136.5), Nyjer Morgan (137.4), Julio Borbon (138.7), and Rajai Davis (161.5). All four players are legit 50-steal candidates and can be had after the 13th round in 10-team mixed leagues. You might want to reconsider players like Jacoby Ellsbury (20.8) and even Michael Bourn (120.7).
  • It seems like everyone is forgetting about the utility players as Vladimir Guerrero (156.1), David Ortiz (168.3), and Hideki Matsui (173.7) are all going after the 15th round in 10-team mixed leagues. Guerrero is looking good in Spring Training and Ortiz will give you near-30 home run and 100 RBI production. Matsui, if healthy, can provide with very good power numbers considering he is being drafted in the 18th round and should maintain OF eligibility.
  • Much like Konerko, Ted Lilly (197.2) always goes underappreciated in drafts and this year is no different. Of course, there are some concerns with his health coming into the season, but he is recovering well from shoulder surgery and could be back by mid-to-late April. Lilly can provide you with a very good K/9, low whip and decent win totals, which is good value in the 20th round if you are willing to hold onto him while he rehabs in the minors.
  • Some undrafted pitchers to look out for: Justin Duchscherer (good when healthy), Kevin Correia (great home park and second half), Bud Norris (good strikeout potential), Ryan Rowland-Smith (great defense and home park and should be #3 starter on Mariners).
  • Obviously, Chris Perez (221.5) should be getting drafted earlier with news that Kerry Wood (195.5) could be out for two months. Also, Perez owners should feel confident that he will keep his job as long as he pitches well in Wood’s absence so he would be worth an 18th-20th round pick. Wood should be going undrafted in every draft out there and at best is a reserve pick in deeper leagues.
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Deviation From Career Norms: Second Base

By on January 2, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Last year’s second basemen were not your father’s (older brother’s?) second basemen.  If you were in a 10 team league chances are you ended up with a highly productive second baseman on your hands.  Today I will be taking a look at a few second basemen whose statistics represented a break from their career norms.  Then I will determine if it signifies the beginning of a new trend or if it is just a statistical outlier.

Aaron Hill

Aaron Hill finished last year with a PSR (for more details visit our PSR Rankings Explained page) of 10.38, which was third best among second baseman.  He finished the year with 36 HR and 108 RBI to go along with 103 R and a .284 AVG.  More impressively, he had the highest HR and RBI totals among second baseman.  These power numbers are in stark contrast to his career totals.

Here is a list of his home run totals by year with at bats in parenthesis:

2005: 3   (361)
2006: 6   (546)
2007: 17 (608)
2008: 2   (205)
2009: 36 (682)

As you can see, Hill more than doubled his previous high in HR.  In order to determine if Hill will match his 2009 power totals next year, we must dig deeper into the numbers and look at his ISO (isolated power) numbers and his HR/FB (home run/fly ball) rates.

YearISOHR/FB
2005.1112.6%
2006.0953.6%
2007.1688.6%
2008.0982.4%
2009.21314.9%

Notice how last year Hill had the highest ISO of his career as well as the highest HR/FB ratio of his career.  What concerns me about these numbers is that they are so much greater than in any other year.  Although it is natural for a player to develop more power as he gets older, it is unlikely to develop so much of that power in one year.  As a result, I don’t believe that Hill will be able to sustain his ISO and HR/FB from last year and thus will see a decrease in his power total.

While Hill’s power numbers last year seem like an aberration, his AVG and R seem sustainable to due a BABIP and LD% right around his career norms.  Don’t get me wrong Hill is still a valuable second basemen who is capable of having a HR total in the low 20s and an RBI total in the 90s.  Just don’t expect another 30 HR 100 RBI next year.

Ben Zobrist

In 2009, Ben Zobrist made quite the name for himself.  He went from being known as “the guy traded for Aubrey Huff” to the more affectionate Zorilla.  He posted a dazzling line of 91/27/91/17/.297 which were all career bests.  Here is a look at Zobrist’s career numbers:

SeasonABRHRRBIBBSBAVG
200618310218102.224
20079781932.155
2008198321230253.253
20095019127919117.297

As you can see, Zobrist received the most AB’s last year as he was filling in for the injured Akinori Iwamura.  With Iwamura traded to Pittsburgh, Zobrist will once again man second base for the Rays in 2010.  If you look at the above table you can see that 2008 actually represented the start of a new trend for Zobrist.  His AB/HR ratio was 16.5 compared to 91.5 in 2006 and 97 in 2007.  He also walked more in 2008.  He walked once every 7.29 AB’s compared to once every 18.3 AB’s in 2006 and once every 32.33 AB’s in 2007.  In 2009, Zobrist’s AB/HR ratio was 18.55 which was right around his 2008 mark showing that Zobrist’s power in 2008 was no fluke.  He also walked once every 5.51 AB’s indicating Zobrist’s improved plate discipline.

From these numbers we can deduce that Zobrist probably would have put up similar numbers in 2008 as he did in 2009 if he was given the same amount of AB’s.  As a result Zobrist is a good candidate to repeat his 2009 performance in 2010.

There are two differences between 2008 and 2009 however.  One being AVG and another being SB.  He posted a high BABIP last year (.330) which resulted in a .297 AVG.  In 2008 he had a low BABIP of .255 which resulted in a .253 AVG.  Next year his AVG should fall somewhere in between as his BABIP will even out, probably closer to .297 due to his improved plate discipline.  As for the stolen bases, I think his 17 SB are for real considering he stole 36 bases in the minors in 2005 and 26 bases in the minors in 2006.

The Power of Robinson Cano and Jose Lopez 

Robinson Cano entered last season averaging 15.5 HR a year before belting a career high 25 HR in 2009.  If Cano is to retain his position as one of fantasy’s best second basemen he will need to hit around 25 HR again next year since he does not steal any bases.

If you look at Cano’s fly ball percentage (FB%) and line drive percentage (LD%) from last year you will notice he posted a low FB% of 33.4% and a good LD% of 19.9%.  For comparison others players who hit 25 HR such as Adam Laroche, Jack Cust, Juan Rivera, and Jose Lopez had a FB% of 43.4%, 42.9%, 38.4%, and 40.8% respectively.  This information indicates that Cano is not a good candidate to repeat his power surge in 2010 since he is more of line drive hitter than a fly ball hitter.

However there is one equalizer in this equation: new Yankee Stadium.  Cano hit more HR at home last year than away in less at bats.  Expect this trend to continue with Cano being a lefty pull hitter in a stadium with a short right field.

As a result, you can expect Cano to once again hit close to 25 HR and remain one of the best second baseman in fantasy.

Jose Lopez presents another interesting power case in that he also posted a career high of 25 HR last year.  His HR totals from 2006-2008 were as follows: 10, 11, and 17.

Looking more closely at Lopez’s 2009 stats we can see that he posted a career high ISO of .191.  His previous career high was .146.  He also posted a career high FB% of 40.8% besting his previous high of 37.4%.  In addition, Lopez’s 11.1% HR/FB ratio was a career best, trumping his previous high of 8.2%.

While Lopez is entering his prime and is likely developing more power, he is unlikely to maintain his high ISO, FB%, and HR/FB ratio, especially considering that he plays half his games in the spacious Safeco Field.  As a result, Lopez is not likely to hit more than 20 HR.

Although I am down on Lopez’s HR totals, I do believe that he can approach his career high of 96 RBI from last year and perhaps even surpass that total.  He will again be hitting in the middle of the order because the Mariners have no other “power” hitters.  Also, Chone Figgins joins Ichiro at the top of lineup.  With those two guys hitting ahead of Lopez, he should have plenty of RBI opportunities.

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