To properly answer this question, there are three smaller questions we must address:

1. Is second base really a hotbed for power?
2. How many guys with 18-plus home runs from 2011 are likely to repeat in 2012?
3. What players might join 2011′s crop of 18-plus home run producers?

Each sub-question is fascinating in it’s own right, so I’m glad George had the foresight to include the larger question in our top 100 list.

Is second base really a hotbed for power?

To answer this I went back and looked at the power numbers from 2011 for each position. First, I calculated the average home run total of the top 15 players at each position since many roto leagues include as many as 15 teams and for smaller, 10-team leagues this includes all the starters and the first half of the available backups. Next, I found the median home run total of those top 15 players since some positions (third base) had skewed averages based on one or two incredible power performances (Jose Bautista). Last, since the question set the parameter of players with at least 18 home runs, I counted how many players at the position hit at least 18 home runs. The results are below.

*Outfield numbers were calculated using the top 45 home run hitters since there are three times as many outfielders compared to any other position, so “Avg of Top 15″ is really average of the top 45 and “No. with 18+ HR” was really the number of outfielders with 18-plus home runs divided by three. This keeps everything on the same scale.

Conclusion: Second base doesn’t stand out as a power-heavy position, but there was just as much power to be found there as at third base and outfield, two positions certainly more known for higher home run totals.

How many guys with 18-plus home runs in 2011 are likely to repeat in 2012?

There are three basic factors that combine to yield a player’s home run total:

1. How many at-bats he gets
2. How many of those at-bats result in fly balls
3. How many of those fly balls result in home runs

To see how many second basemen in 2011′s “18 and Over Club” are likely to repeat, I looked at each of their relevant stats from 2011 as compared to the last three years (2009-2011).

The three guys shaded in gray atop the chart are the guys I consider locks for 18-plus home runs in 2012 (barring injury to Ian Kinsler). As for the rest, somehow nine guys all came within three home runs of our 18-home-run threshold, giving us very little room for error.

Interestingly enough, 10 of the 12 players here actually hit fewer fly balls in 2011 than they did on average from 2009 to 2011. This explains the small drop in home run production from second basemen from 2010 to 2011 as seven guys actually hit more than 21 home runs in 2010 versus just three in 2011. However, nine of the 12 saw an increased number of those fly balls leave the yard last season.

Dustin Pedroia hit more than 18 home runs for the first time last season, but it was actually his second straight year ahead of the pace since he managed 12 homers in just 75 games in 2010. Pedroia makes the cut.

Kelly Johnson is a real boom-or-bust power guy who’s status in this group might very well be dictated by where he signs. His two home ballparks last season, Arizona and Toronto, are very favorable home run parks for left-handed hitters with both posting park factors of 114 for home runs to lefties (according to statcorner.com). Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos says Johnson is currently “in the mix” for Toronto, so if he doesn’t sign there or with another team with a good ballpark, I’m less inclined to include him in this group.

Last season I was touting Danny Espinosa as a sleeper 20/20 threat and while the stolen bases weren’t quite there (17), the power was. He’s part of Washington’s future right now and I don’t see a good reason why he shouldn’t repeat his 2011 power production. Oh, and for what it’s worth, I projected Espinosa for 20 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Score!

Ben Zobrist hit 20 home runs last season, 27 home runs in 2009 and 12 home runs in 62 games in 2008. Like Kinsler, his 2010 season seems to defy reason, and I think he’s a very good bet to top 18 home runs again. In fact, outside of the top three that I consider locks, Zobrist is the guy I’m next most confident in.

Michael Cuddyer is a free agent and will be one of the most hotly sought after right-handed bats on the market. That means Minnesota is going to have to pay the man to continue to employ his services. Given their needs (right-handed bat) and Cuddyer’s role on the team, they just might do that. Target Field isn’t extremely home run friendly (park factor: 95), but they say the devil you know is better than the one you don’t. Right now I think he repeats, but we’ll know better in a few months.

Rickie Weeks would be that guy I was next most confident in if he didn’t still come with lingering health concerns, but at least the injury that robbed him of about 200-plus at-bats last season was a severely twisted ankle and not a recurring muscle injury. He’ll repeat, too.

It’s these last three guys that are really the most interesting. Ryan Roberts has never really displayed 18-plus home run power at any level before, but his ISO has always been respectable and sometimes it takes time for guys to turn those extra base hits into extra home runs. He managed 19 homers in just 482 at-bats despite hitting fewer fly balls last year, but he’s still a fairly extreme fly ball hitter in one of the game’s best home run parks. Arizona only slightly favors right-handed hitters for home runs (park factor: 102), and without a real threat at third base he should get around 500 at-bats next season. Can he maintain his elevated HR/FB rate? According to Hit Tracker Online, seven of Roberts’ 19 home runs had “just enough” (36.8%). The MLB average last season was 33.4 percent, so Roberts didn’t have an unusual number of lucky home runs. I tend to think he will repeat.

Howie Kendrick is the guy I’m saying “thanks for playing” to. He had two months where he combined to hit 12 home runs (April and August) and then managed just six in the other four months combined. His HR/FB rate last season was 46 percent higher than his rate from 2009 through 2011, and he has a hard time staying healthy and doesn’t hit fly balls. Too much went right for me to think this will happen again.

Brandon Phillips hasn’t hit fewer than 18 home runs in any of the last five years, but he’s hit exactly 18 in each of the last two. He’s aging, his HR/FB rate has declined every year since 2007, and I don’t think he reaches the mark again.

By my count that makes eight players I think will hit 18-plus once again plus two free agents (Johnson and Cuddyer) that the jury is still out on but I admittedly still like. Don’t count on Kendrick or Phillips repeating.

What players might join 2011′s crop of 18-plus home run producers?

Here are the names we need to seriously consider for this group: Chase Utley, Michael Young, Ryan Raburn, Neil Walker, Aaron Hill, Dustin Ackley, Jason Kipnis and Gordon Beckham.

Even though Utley has missed significant time over the last two years and hasn’t hit 18-plus home runs since the 31 he hit in 2009, I refuse to believe he’s completely done. I think he’s got one more good season left in him.

Young didn’t top four homers in any single month last year and actually hit just one in three of them. He hit 22 and 21 home runs in 2009 and 2010, respectively, but he’s getting up there in age and isn’t a fly ball hitter. Young will continue to drive in runs and hit for a high average, but I don’t think 18 home runs are in the cards.

Raburn was a huge preseason sleeper but didn’t really live up to the hype. He bounced in and out of Detroit’s lineup all season, but his .967 OPS in the second half last year showed the kind of hitter he can be. Raburn hits a lot of fly balls and I think the power is there if he’s given enough playing time. I’m going out on a limb and projecting him to hit our 18-homer benchmark.

Walker disappointed with just 12 home runs last season mainly due to both his fly ball rate and home run per fly ball rate declining from his rookie season. He had seasons of 13, 16 and 14 home runs in the minors from 2007 to 2009, respectively, and looked like that same hitter in 2010. I think he approaches 20 this season and I’m willing to bet he breaks 18.

Hill is worth taking a flier on in the last round of your draft because the potential is there, but I don’t think it’s something I want to predict right now.

Ackley and Kipnis just aren’t power hitters despite Kipnis’ mini outburst last season and I don’t think either hits 18.

As for Beckham, he’s an intriguing name. I honestly think he has a 50/50 shot to surpass 18 homers since he plays in a nice enough offensive ballpark, but right now it’s not something I think I want to expect until I see it happen once.

Which players will hit 18-plus home runs in 2012?

All of this analysis has given us 13 names that I think will hit 18 home runs as second basemen:

• Dan Uggla
• Ian Kinsler
• Robinson Cano
• Dustin Pedroia
• Danny Espinosa
• Ben Zobrist
• Rickie Weeks
• Ryan Roberts
• Kelly Johnson
• Michael Cuddyer
• Chase Utley
• Ryan Raburn
• Neil Walker

• Top 25: 0 players
• Top 50: 5 players
• Top 100: 11 players
• Top 200: 16 players
• Highest Ranked Player: Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It hasn’t been pretty for second basemen in 2011. We’ve had Chase Utley and Martin Prado go down with injuries and Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill, Neil Walker and Gordon Beckham just plain old sucking.

Fortunately Ian Kinsler and Rickie Weeks have been the bastion of health (ridiculous, I know) and Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips and Michael Young being their normal selves have saved face a bit.

Lucky for the first group, they get a fresh start in the second half of the season so let’s check in and see who you should be putting all of your chips into.

1. Robinson Cano, NYY | 57 R, .297, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 6 SB

I don’t know which accomplishment Cano’s father is more proud of. His son winning the home run derby or being BaseballProf’s top ranked second baseman for the second half. It’s a toss up.

2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS | 61 R, .289, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 16 SB

Check out the speed from the little man! His previous career high is 20 steals, but he’s on pace to shatter that by the end of the month. He’s been one of the best players over the last month and there’s no reason he shouldn’t continue raking and putting on laser shows.

3. Ian Kinsler, TEX | 65 R, .253, 13 HR, 34 RBI, 19 SB

There is a lot of hate in the fantasy community. He’s always hurt this and he can’t hit for a good batting average that. Did you know Kinsler has hit .297 over the last 30 days? Bet you didn’t. He bats leadoff for one of the best offenses in the league and walks more than every second baseman not named Pedroia. His .250 BABIP this season has been very unlucky, but in 11 games in July it sits at a cool .316 (.311 AVG). I have spoken!

4. Rickie Weeks, MIL | 67 R, .273, 17 HR, 39 RBI, 7 SB

Weeks must be eating his greens because somehow he has managed to stay healthy for 1 1/2 seasons—something he hadn’t done for his entire career. The steals have been a bit down from earlier in his career, but the power is up and that’s a trade I’m willing to take especially at this position.

5. Michael Young, TEX | 42 R, .324, 8 HR, 61 RBI, 4 SB

Being the teams’ primary DH, Young finds himself sitting on the bench more often than not but that hasn’t affected his hitting. He’s starting to find his power stroke, but he’s bringing it everywhere we thought he would. Young’s as steady as they come.

6. Brandon Phillips, CIN | 57 R, .290, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB

Phillips is quietly putting up one of his best averages in his career. The last time he approached .300 was in 2007 when he also had a 30/30 season. Oh the memories. His power is a bit down this year, but I peg an unlucky 7.5 HR/FB percentage as the culprit.

7. Ben Zobrist, TB | 61 R, .269, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB

We talked about Zorilla in our first base rankings. Needless to say, his skillset fits this position much better.

8. Chase Utley, PHI | 22 R, .278, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 8 SB

The injury still scares me a bit, but he has eight steals so he must be feeling good right? Utley is one of the toughest guys to rank after what he went through this offseason, but he could easily be a top four guy if he stays on the field. Remember, if.

9. Danny Espinosa, WAS | 45 R, .243, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 12 SB

Espinosa has been one of my favorite surprises of the season and he was on a majority of waiver wires as late as June 1. I talked about him in a recent post where I called him the next Kinsler.

10. Martin Prado, ATL | 38 R, .280, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 2 SB

Prado recently came off the disabled list and homered in his first game. That’s obviously a good sign and Prado should return to .300 form soon enough. Think of him as Placido Polanco with more pop and a better lineup spot.

11. Dan Uggla, ATL | 44 R, .186, 15 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB

Yes, Uggla was lost in the first half. His .185 batting average has been known to cause nausea, vomiting and some other unspeakable things, but he still managed to hit 15 home runs. His hitting has been coming on as of late with an eight-game hitting streak in which he has batted .333 with three home runs. God help me, but I believe.

12. Neil Walker, PIT | 47 R, .263, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB

Let me get this out of the way first, I am a Walker fan. He is probably the most uncharacteristic cleanup hitter in the majors, but because of his favorable lineup spot he leads all second basemen with 60 RBIs. I think Walker is more of a .280-.290 hitter and should end the season with around 15 home runs, which is pretty good production out of a middle infielder. He’s well on his way to reaching 90+ RBIs.

13. Howard Kendrick, LAA | 43 R, .301, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 9 SB

Kendrick was also talked about in the first base rankings post, but he belongs here. He started off with a great April where he hit .308 with six home runs and 12 RBI. Since then the average has been the same (.297), but his power has completely vanished (2 HR, 17 RBI). Kendrick has normally been one of those guys who tends to come on later in the season so I’d keep an eye on him.

14. Michael Cuddyer, MIN | 42 R, .292, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB

No need to reiterate what’s already been said. Check back to our midseason first base rankings, press Ctrl + F, and type in “Cuddyer.”

15. Kelly Johnson, ARI | 50 R, .216, 16 HR, 42 RBI, 8 SB

Johnson is doing his best Uggla impression except he’s winning because he also runs. Make sure you plan around that bad average, but he’s not bad for a guy with a girl’s name.

16. Aaron Hill, TOR | 29 R, .234, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 13 SB

Hill might just be the most frustrating player in baseball not named Billy Butler. He had that monster 2009 season, then followed it up with a horrible 2010 compaign in which he hit .205, but had 26 home runs. This year, he’s just decided to suck all around and there’s no way to explain it. He has 13 steals, which no one saw coming, but can we really expect them to keep coming? Regardless, I’m a sucker for power-hitting second basemen so he still has some potential in my eyes.

17. Dustin Ackley, SEA | 12 R, .289, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB

Ackley started off hot with a five-game hitting streak and batted .302 in his first 13 games with two home runs. Still, he’s only 23, in a pitcher’s park and in a horrible lineup. He might hit close to .300, but the runs and RBI won’t be there and I don’t see him making a big dent in either home runs or steals this year.

18. Ty Wigginton, COL | 37 R, .252, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 5 SB

Wigginton is prone to these ridiculous power-hitting streaks, much like the one we saw at the end of June (6 HR in 8 games). It’s then, and only then, that you should own him.

19. Brett Lawrie, TOR | 51 R, .354, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 11 SB (Triple-A)

Lawrie was ready to get called up and then he had to go ahead and get hit by a pitch on his hand. Ok, ok it’s not his fault, but it set him back considerably. I’m a little cautious because we’ve seen so many rookies struggle after being called up this year, but he’s worth the gamble especially in keeper leagues.

20. Gordon Beckham, CHW | 35 R, .248, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB

Will we see another resurgence by Beckham in the second half? I don’t see it happening and he definitely won’t be on my team if it does. Don’t these prospects know that they are supposed to be getting better?

21. Ryan Roberts, ARI | 48 R, .258, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 13 SB

If you didn’t sell high after Roberts’ hot start in April I just have one question for you: WHAT WERE YOU THINKING?!?

22. Alexi Casilla, MIN | 43 R, .255, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 13 SB

 Nothing to see here except a tiny guy running fast. But there’s some value in that.

23. Darwin Barney, CHC | 40 R, .300, 1 HR, 32 RBI, 4 SB

His empty batting average is sort of like Ritz crackers. They are very good, but you are never left satisfied.

24. Mark Ellis, COL | 34 R, .237, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 8 SB

Ellis has had a small comeback (.327/.365/.612) after taking his talents to Colorado. Still he’s burned us so many times before it’s hard to believe.

25. Jemile Weeks, OAK | 15 R, .294, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 8 SB

Weeks has a chance to help you in steals and that’s about it. His batting average will be mediocre and his power numbers will be non-existent. Still, if you feel the need for speed it seems like Weeks is here to stay so pick him up. Then go watch a Fast and the Furious marathon.

Honorable Mention 

Daniel Murphy, NYM | 35 R, .307, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 4 SB

Murphy is your typical “do nothing great, but everything solid” player. At least Weeks has a chance to be dominant in one category.

Don’t like my rankings? Tell me about it in the comments section or on Twitter @BaseballProf.

I think it’s safe to say that Beckett is over the injury issues that plagued him all last season. He’s locating his fastball better and he’s dialing it up to the mid-90s when he needs to. Beckett is also throwing his patented two-seamer with consistency, a pitch he needs to strike out left-handed batters. Add in a hard changeup that darts down in the zone and Beckett is now equipped with all the pitches that made him a Cy Young contender in 2009.

My preseason vote for comeback player of the year was James Shields, and while he’s off to a strong start, I may have to change my vote to Beckett.

Three Up

Kyle Lohse, SP, STL – CG, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 6 K

Scott Baker, SP, MIN – 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 9 K

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – 3-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR

Three Down

Daniel Hudson, SP, ARZ – 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 7 ER, 3 K

James McDonald, SP, PIT – 3 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 ER, 3 K

Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT- 0-for-5, 2 K, 3 LOB

Notes:

• Grady Sizemore collected three more hits to raise his batting average to .421. However he has yet to attempt a stolen base and I don’t anticipate him stealing more than 10-15 on the season. Without top end speed Sizemore becomes just another outfielder with power and a low batting average. If you can find someone in your league who believes in a Sizemore turn around I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him.
• Although Brandon McCarthy got the loss, he pitched another gem against the Mariners, holding them to four hits and one run in eight innings. He also struck out six batters and lowered his ERA and WHIP to 2.10 and 1.00, respectively. If you haven’t bought into McCarthy’s hot start do so immediately. He has completely overhauled his pitching style by adding a low 90s sinker and a cut fastball to his arsenal. At 27 years old, the former top prospect may finally be reaching his potential.
• Filling in for the injured Logan Morrison, Scott Cousins went 2-for-4 with a home run and 4 RBI. The 26 year old hasn’t had many at-bats at the major league level but he showed the ability to hit for power and speed in the minor leagues. Cousins may sit against left-handers in favor of Emilio Bonifacio but he makes for a speculative add in deeper leagues while Morrison recovers from a foot injury that’s expected to keep him out two to four weeks.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

• Kevin Youkilis left Thursday’s game after fouling a Tyler Chatwood pitch off his left foot. … Logan Morrison was placed on the DL with a foot sprain. He’s expected to be out two to four weeks. … Angel Pagan left yesterday’s game with a pulled muscle on the left side of his body. He’s doubtful for today’s game. … Daric Barton missed Thursday’s game with an illness. … Aaron Hill‘s MRI results were inconclusive and he’s questionable for tonight’s game. A DL stint could be looming.

First, almost of all the damage was done in Jimenez’s first inning back from the DL. The Giants scored four runs (three on Pablo Sandoval‘s home run) and tallied four hits and one walk during the game’s first half inning. After that, Jimenez held his opponent to two hits and one walk while striking out five over four shutout innings. It’s clear he had some rust to shake off and once he did it was vintage Ubaldo.

Going forward, it’s clear that we aren’t going to see the Jimenez we saw in the first half of 2010, but it’s safe to say that he is a top 20 pitcher with potential to sneak into the top 10. The Rockies did the right thing taking it slow with him early in the year to make sure he is able to contribute long term rather than right away in April. Something all Jimenez owners should be very thankful for.

Three Up

Peter Bourjos, OF, LAA - 4-for-5, 3 R, HR, 3 RBI

James Shields, SP, TB - CG, 4 H, ER, BB, 9 K

Brett Anderson, SP, OAK - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 8 K

Three Down

Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA - 0-for-6, 2 K, 3 LOB

Adam Dunn, 1B, CHW - 0-for-4, 3 K, 2 LOB

Paul Maholm, SP, PIT - 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

Notes:

• We touted James Shields as bounce back pitcher and he has delivered in the early going. Last night, he allowed just one run, four hits and one walk while striking out nine over nine innings. I’d still like to see his strikeout rate (6.14) improve, but it’s definitely manageable if he can keep his walks down much like his years prior to 2010.

• Don’t look now, but Matt Wieters‘ bat might finally be waking up. The young catcher went 2-for-3 with three runs and four RBI. It’s his third consecutive game with a hit and he is 6-for-20 over his last six games and could be finally figuring it out at the plate. He should already be owned in all leagues, but if you are currently without a steady catcher, he could be a decent guy to target before he takes off.

• Before last night, the Toronto Blue Jays led the majors with 21 team steals and leading the way is Aaron Hill, who stole his sixth base of the season. Manager John Farrell is encouraging his team to run early and often so this isn’t necessarily a fluke. I do expect Hill to raise his batting average and if he can get on base more he could get to 20 steals this year. Given his previous career-high is six, that would be  a huge boost in his value. Along with Hill, other Blue Jays will experience some added value with the extra steals they will earn.
• The Ian Stewart experiment, or should I say failure, just added another chapter as the Rockies sent him down to make room for Jimenez. The slumping third baseman will get plenty of at-bats in the minors and I’m sure he will succeed and give plenty of fantasy owners false hope. I’m not falling for it. Start buying on Ty Wigginton.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Speaking of Hill, he left the game in the sixth inning after his steal and is day-to-day with a strained hamstring. … Evan Longoria is eyeing a return by the end of the month. … Toronto activated reliever Frank Francisco from the disabled list. … Jason Bay, who is due back soon, went 4-for-4 with two home runs in a rehab game. … Logan Morrison left the game in the fifth inning with a strained arch in his left foot and hopes to be back in a couple days. … Grady Sizemore got one of his scheduled days off yesterday and will play three or four out of every five days over the next couple of weeks.

Ian Kinsler hit a home run in the Rangers’ first at-bat of the season while Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli also added bombs of their own. Overall, Texas muscled out six extra base hits (even Elvis Andrus joined the party with a double!)out of 10 total hits.

More impressively the team struck out a combined one time in a game where they faced one of baseball’s best strikeout pitchers in Jon Lester. The strikeout, for the record, went to Daniel Bard in the eighth inning.

It’s the same old story with the Rangers hitters as they will score plenty of runs to go around. Their lineup was loaded from one through seven last night and on days where Napoli catches we will see another quality bat in Mitch Moreland in the lineup, giving Texas eight solid hitters and Julio Borbon. All should be owned in mixed leagues.

Three Up
Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW - 3-5, 2 R, HR, 5 RBI
J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR - 3-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3B, 5 RBI
Jeremy Guthrie, SP, BAL - 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB

Three Down
Carl Crawford, OF, BOS - 0-4, 3 K, 5 LOB
Brandon Lyon, CL, HOU - 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE - 3 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 5 K, BB

Notes:

• Everyone worried about Ichiro Suzuki can probably squash those concerns until the second half because I still think those 37-year-old legs will get tired by the end of the year. However, Ichiro has shown that he like to run a lot early so it would be wise to take advantage and then cut bait. Last year, he stole nearly the same number of bases before (22) the break as after (20), but over the last three years his split is 75/36…Felix Hernandez turned in another gem giving up just two runs while striking out five in a complete-game effort. Ho-hum.

• Along with the Rangers, the Blue Jays seem to be the same home-run-hitting team we all loved last year. Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Arencibia (two home runs) each went deep. Arencibia even added a triple, rewarding those owners who waited on catchers in their drafts. Be prepared for a streaky, but solid, season from the rookie catcher…It was nice to see Lind homer as both the Blue Jays and fantasy owners hope he can return to his 2009 MVP-caliber form…Ricky Romero showed why I love him this year with a 13:5 GB:FB ratio and striking out seven batters over 6 1/3 innings.

• Hey, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-0! If the Pirates are going to do any type of damage it’s going to be because of their young core of Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. While Alvarez did nothing, the other three combined for five of Pirates’ seven hits, two home runs, one steal and all six of their RBI. McCutchen, who will be batting third this season after leading off all of last year, should have plenty more RBI opportunities and just adds another facet to his fantasy game.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Toronto’s Aaron Hill, who battled a quadriceps injury during spring training, left yesterday’s game after the seventh inning with the Blue Jays up 10-3…Florida’s Mike Stanton left yesterday’s game after five innings with hamstring tightness…Dodger’s Juan Uribe missed last night’s game with swelling in his elbow after getting hit by a pitch…Oakland’s Kurt Suzuki left last night’s game in the seventh with a mild ankle sprain.

Links around the Major Leagues:

• The Orioles might be without promising starter Brian Matusz for a little while.
• Blue Jays declined a three-year, $26 million option for Hill.
• Jim Leyland wants to find playing time for Brennan Boesch.
• Franklin Gutierrez is making progress with his rehab in Arizona.
• Carlos Beltran felt good after yesterday’s opener.
• It was a shaky start fo the Phillies’ Ben Francisco, but it ended on a good note.
• Stephen Drew missed yesterday’s opener and his status is still uncertain.

Opening day is just five days away and we are almost freed from having to watch Bartolo “El Gordo” Colon pitch (or maybe not).

As sure as I am that I haven’t seen the last snow fall in New England, there will be plenty of prediction articles coming out before Thursday’s opener. We decided to join the party.

Most valuable fantasy player

Chris Campanelli – Matt Kemp

Kemp is being drafted in the third round but he can easily provide first round value. Despite a down year he still managed to hit 28 home runs and steal 19 bases last year. Unlike previous seasons Kemp will bat cleanup this year which will help his RBI totals. He’s also in better shape and has been working with first base coach Davey Lopes to improve his base-stealing ability.

George Fitopoulos – Aaron Hill

Hill won’t end the year as a top-35 player, but if you’re looking for a player who should greatly out produce his average draft position then Hill is your guy. He is currently being drafted 114th overall, which is fine—if he hits .210 again. Before last year, Hill batted over .285 in three of his four professional seasons so it’s safe to assume that last year was a fluke. However, the 30-home run potential isn’t and Hill could very easily end the year as a top-50 player at a 12th round price. Now that’s value.

Worst value of the season

Chris – Dan Uggla

We know Uggla has power but fantasy owners are making him an early fourth round pick based on his .287 batting average last year. However, his BABIP was 28 points higher than his career average and his line drive percentage of 17.8 percent wasn’t nearly good enough to explain the increase. Uggla really isn’t that much different than Aaron Hill who is going 77 picks later.

George – C.C. Sabathia

I’m not buying Sabathia this year. I already hate drafting pitchers early, but if I’m drafting one in the third round Sabathia isn’t the guy I’m targeting. Sabathia had his worst K/9 (7.46) and BB/9 (2.8) since 2005 yet won a career-high 21 games. If you want wins then sure Sabathia is a great guy to own, but his value at the end of the year is going to be no greater than pitchers like Dan Haren, Cole Hamels and Josh Johnson who are going four rounds later.

Comeback player of the year

Chris – James Shields

After posting a 5.18 ERA last year, many people are giving up on Shields. But if you look closer at his numbers you’ll see that his xFIP was 3.72 and that he increased his K/9 from 6.84 to 8.28. Shields is also very durable, having pitched 200-plus innings in four consecutive seasons. He’s definitely a top 50 starting pitcher even though he isn’t being treated like one.

George – Carlos Pena

Aaron Hill (love him this year, can’t you tell?) could also go in this category after his horrible 2010 season, but Pena fits just as well. His .196 batting average was very unlucky last year (.222 BABIP) and made his stock plummet in drafts (147 ADP). His career BABIP, including last year, is .279 so expect him to hit around .240, which is much more bearable. With half of his games coming at Wrigley Field, Pena should return to being a 30-home run hitter and drive in 90-100 runs.

Biggest surprise of the year

Chris – Michael Morse

A journeyman for most of his career, Morse earned 266 at-bats last year with the Nationals and clubbed 15 home runs. He carried that hot hitting over to the spring and won the starting left fielder job. It takes some players longer than most to develop power and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Morse seems to be another one of those classic late bloomers, in the mold of Ryan Ludwick and Jose Bautista. Hitting behind Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth will only help his fantasy value.

George – Derek Jeter

Everyone is expecting the 36-year-old to fall of the face of the earth, but not this guy. Jeter has one last chance to show the world that he is worth the $16 million he held out for. He’s only one year removed from a .334 average with 18 home runs and 30 stolen bases. I think Jeter is a good bet to hit .300 with double-digit home runs, over 20 steals and 100-plus runs. Draft accordingly.

M(ost) V(aluable) P(rospect)

Chris – Craig Kimbrel

Rookie closers seems to have more success than rookies at other positions. First it was Andrew Bailey, then Neftali Feliz and now it will be Kimbrel. Although he’s initially going to share closing duties with Jonny Venters, Kimbrel should eventual seize the job. In 20.2 innings with the Braves last year his ERA was a minuscule 0.44 and his K/9 was an astonishing 17.42. He’s wild at times but with such an electric arm it might not matter. He could be the next coming of Carlos Marmol.

George – Jake Fox

Look for 2011 to be a much more normal year when it comes to rookies. We were all spoiled last year with one of the best crop of rookies in a long time. Mat Latos, Jayson Heyward, Mike Stanton, Wade Davis, Brian Matusz and Jhoulys Chacin aren’t coming through that door. Fox isn’t technically a rookie, but he’s never landed a starting job. He’s been raking this spring and will have eligibility almost everywhere, including catcher. Take a flyer on him especially in deeper leagues.

Now imagine reading that list, going back in time and redoing your draft. Well that’s just what you’re about to do.

I present to you the 2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Value Team.

Catcher

Geovany Soto (ESPN ADP: 134.3) – Can someone please explain to me why Brian McCann is going in the fifth or sixth round while Soto isn’t going until the middle rounds? The last two years McCann hit 21 home runs and batted .281 and .269. Last year Soto hit 17 home runs and batted .280 in only 322 at-bats. With Lou Piniella no longer managing the Cubs and jerking Soto in and out of the lineup, he should once again approach the 500 at-bats he received in his rookie season when he batted .285 with 23 home runs.

First Base

Prince Fielder (ESPN ADP: 25.4) – Six first basemen are being drafted ahead of Fielder in ESPN leagues. But I ask you, how many of them can hit 40-plus home runs and drive in 115 RBI? And it’s not like Fielder, with his career .279 batting average, is Adam Dunn where you have to wonder if he’s going to hit under .250. As much as I like someone like Adrian Gonzalez I’d rather draft David Wright in round one and pick up Fielder in round three.

Second Base

Aaron Hill (ESPN ADP: 113.2) – Power is hard to come by this year but Hill has 62 home runs in the past two years yet he’s not even considered a top 10 second baseman. The .205 average is surely scaring people off but keep in mind his BABIP was a ridiculously low .196. Consider Hill’s batting averages in ’06, ’07 and ’09: .291, .291 and .286. People are drafting Dan Uggla in the fourth round but he only has two more home runs than Hill over the past two years and his career batting average is .263.

Third Base

Casey McGehee (ESPN ADP: 91.2) – Only three third basemen batted .285 or higher with at least 20 home runs and 100 RBI last year and McGehee was one of them. But since he only has two seasons under his belt and wasn’t a highly regarded prospect, McGehee is barely regarded at a top 10 third­­ baseman. If you miss out on a top 5 third baseman you should ignore Adrian Beltre, Michael Young and Aramis Ramirez and wait for McGehee a few rounds later.

Shortstop

Stephen Drew (ESPN ADP: 109.8) – Even though shortstop is the thinnest position this year not many people consider Drew a top 100 player. However, not many shortstops have more power than Drew does. His ISO was .181 last year and .211 in 2008 when he hit 21 home runs. But the reason I think Drew will provide a lot of value this year is that I think he can steal 20 bases even though he’s never had more than 10 in a season. Prior to being named the Diamondbacks manager, Kirk Gibson worked closely with base runners and was credited with improving the base running ability of players such as Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. Now as manager of the club, he wants his team to be more aggressive on the base paths which is music to the ears of Drew’s owners.

Outfield

Matt Kemp (ESPN ADP: 28.2) – Kemp can be had in the third round but he has the potential to put up first round numbers. Despite a down year he still had 82 runs, 28 home runs, 89 RBI and 19 stolen bases. With so few top end outfielders, Kemp could easily be the best at the position this year. Reports out of Dodgers camp are that new manager Don Mattingly will bat Kemp cleanup and allow him to run more. Sign me up please.

Starting Pitcher

Josh Beckett (ESPN ADP: 168.8) – It’s easy to disregard a pitcher after a down year when starting pitching depth is so deep. But I can’t fathom why 41 starters are going ahead of Beckett when so few pitchers outside the top 20 have the potential to be a fantasy ace like he does. Beckett battled injuries all last year and as a result, his K/BB ratio was his worst in years. But his 2010 issues are behind him and he’s feeling great, despite the concussion scare early in spring training. With the potent Sox offense behind him, not many pitchers have more win potential than Beckett.

Relief Pitcher

Joe Nathan (ESPN ADP: 157.1) – Nathan isn’t being drafted as a top 15 relief pitcher because he missed all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. However, he hasn’t suffered any setbacks in spring training and he’s beginning to look like his old self. If his health continues to hold up there’s no reason why he can’t finish among the top five relief pitchers.

That’s right. The professors are doing fantasy baseball—NFBC style.

If you aren’t familiar with the NFBC—National Fantasy Baseball Championship—it’s basically somewhere where fantasy nerds can get together and play for keeps. And by keeps, I mean a bit higher stakes than marbles. They also hold live drafts in select remote locations, but unfortunately we are all on a tight budget these days. You know, the economy…

So we decided to put our heads together and co-co-(tri?) manage a team and see if we can come out on top. With three brains behind the operations of our team (Da Professors, by the way) we already have three times the advantage over the competition. We can’t lose!

Before I dive into analyzing our draft, you must know our league rules. ALWAYS KNOW YOUR LEAGUE RULES BEFORE DRAFTING! Knowledge is power.

League: Rotisserie, 15 teams, mixed

Draft: Slow snake draft, 50 rounds

Starting positions: 2 Catchers, 1 First Baseman, 1 Second Baseman, 1 Third Baseman, 1 Shortstop, 1 Corner Infielder, 1 Middle Infielder, 5 Outfielders, 1 Utility, and 9 Pitchers

Categories: Standard 5×5

It’s a very deep league and we think it will give you a real insight into our strategy for drafting accordingly. We are ready and up for the challenge so let’s get into the first fifteen rounds (225 picks) of this monster draft.

The Draft

Round One (Pick 14) – David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

Around the sixth pick we decided that our top targets at 14 would be David Wright, Matt Holliday or Matt Kemp given the scarcity at third base and outfield this year. Only problem was Wright was a pipe dream because in such a deep league his value is clearly higher than normal, but then something happened. Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Zimmerman were draft with the two picks before us and Wright fell into our laps. Ureka! We just got someone who not only contributes in all five categories, but filled in at a scarce position. Now we won’t have to reach on Adrian Beltre in the third round, which is always a good feeling.

Round Two (Pick 17) – Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

We set Wright and Holliday as our top two targets and got them both. We are feeling pretty good right about now because we now have an elite player at third base and outfield and have shored up our batting average. Both hitters should hit in the .300-range and are five-category fillers. We thought about Kemp and Josh Hamilton at this point, but Holliday is much safer and you don’t win leagues in the first three rounds, but you sure can lose them.

Round Three (Pick 44) - Kendry Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

There’s a bit of a misconception about the first base position this year. Yes it’s deep, but it’s also very top heavy with a fairly steep dropoff, which is why we went with Kendry Morales here. You don’t want to wait too long and have to rely on another Paul Konerko surprise or hope for Billy Butler to finally develop some legitimate power. Even Justin Morneau is a huge question mark given his concussion. Morales missed almost all of 2010, but it was a fluke injury and he is good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI with upside to do more damage than that. He is also another good batting average to add to our already strong mix.

Round Four (Pick 47) – Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox

In such a deep league we thought having an elite pitcher was a must and since there are 26 picks in between our selections it was finally time to nab one. Cliff Lee was just taken with one of the “cream filling” picks (if our 44th and 47th selection are the outer cookie layers, then picks 45 and 46 are the cream filling—it’s like an Oreo, try to keep up) so we were left to choose between Jon Lester, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. We pegged Greinke with the WHIP advantage and Verlander atop the strikeout totem pole, but we thought Lester was a very close second in both and had the edge in ERA, while playing on the best team. Greinke was a close runner-up just because his upside in the National League is tremendous, but Lester is also a perennial Cy Young candidate who has no weak link in his game.

Round Five (Pick 74) – Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle Mariners

If you recall from earlier this year I wrote a rather harsh article about Ichiro Suzuki and called for the world to stop drafting him as a top 10, or even top 20, outfielder. Well our leaguemates must be reading the site because he fell all the way to 21st among outfielders in the draft. We realized we needed some steals and debated whether or not to draft someone like Juan Pierre later, but when you have such a big gap between picks you need to take what you need when you are up because it is impossible to predict how the next 26 picks will go. Very important lesson here—there is no such thing as reaching in a deep league in a scenario like this. Get what you need when you have the chance, never play the guessing game. In shallow leagues you can afford to guess because there are more players available to draft.

We grabbed Ichiro and got a .300 batting average—with over 700 plate appearances—and at least 35 steals. He only scored 74 runs last year, but that was the perfect storm of bad offense around him. He should get at least 90, right?

Round Six (Pick 77) – Matt Cain, SP, San Fransisco Giants

Time for our first big debate. Hey, with three opinionated minds it was bound to happen at some point right? Matt Cain or Yovani Gallardo…we spent a good 20 minutes on the subject and finally settled on Cain. The reason? Can has pitched 200-plus innings for four straight seasons, while Gallardo has missed time in each of the last two seasons and always seems to fall apart in the second half. Gallardo gives you a lot of strikeouts  (9.7 K/9 in 2010) and he made huge strides in improving his control last year. Still, he hasn’t put together a full season and it’s not like Cain kills you in strikeouts (career 7.4 K/9). We’ll take Cain and his inexplicable pitching success.

Round Seven (Pick 104) – Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays

I feel like Aaron Hill is becoming my poster boy for why you shouldn’t draft a second baseman in the first 8-10 rounds of a standard 10-team league. We were able to take on Hill’s batting average risk, although we peg him to be in the very reasonable .270-range, and we are rewarded with great power at a position where there isn’t much. Stephen Drew was taken a couple of picks before us, eliminating any chance that we take a shortstop. It was at this point where we decided to not address the shortstop position until a couple rounds later with a guy we all like this year—Ryan Theriot.

Round Eight (Pick 107) – Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles

Brian Wilson became the first closer taken as one of the “cream filling” picks. This posed the question, do we take an elite closer now, or do we address the catcher position and hold off until the next round for a closer? We decided to go with Matt Wieters here because the options after him (Miguel Montero, Jorge Posada, Kurt Suzuki) were not as good compared to the remaining closers. Also, we need two catchers in this 15-team league so it’s important that we get one of the top 10 options.

Wieters should provide solid power and he is in a very solid lineup so there should be plenty of RBI opportunities. Plus, there’s always a chance he figures it all out and realizes his full potential, which many have pegged to be at .290/30/100. Fingers are crossed.

Round Nine (Pick 134) – Joe Nathan, RP, Minnesota Twins

Remember when I said Wilson was the first closer taken at pick 105? Well, during our 26-pick break 10 closers were taken. Talk about a run! So we missed out on a lot of the elite options, but should we still take a closer? We didn’t want to risk waiting, and missing out on the second tier so we decided to go with Joe Nathan. J.J. Putz was also available, but if you asked me who was more likely to finish the season as a top-5 closer it would be Nathan every day of the week. He was one of the game’s best closers before Tommy John surgery and we saw what Billy Wagner did last year. Despite missing out on Joakim Soria, Andrew Bailey and Heath Bell, I think we got ourselves a very decent option at a discounted price. That’s a win in my book.

Round Ten (Pick 137) – Jason Bay, OF, New York Mets

We still needed a third outfielder, but we also starting talking about a third starting pitcher. Our main options at pitching were Colby Lewis, Matt Garza, John Danks and Ricky Romero (in that order). While the first three were all on the visible page of pitchers, Danks was buried on page five. We have yet to uncover the reason why. This is when we started playing, as Chris cleverly put it, “John Danks roulette.” More on that later.

For outfielders, we are starting to hit the tier where everyone seems to have a glaring question mark. Here’s an example of some players at the top of the list: Jason Bay (concussion), Grady Sizemore (health/decreasing skills), Vernon Wells (don’t get me started), Adam Jones (untapped potential) and Carlos Quentin (health). It came down to Jones and Bay and we thought to go with the guy who gives a little more in both the home run and stolen base department. We need to make up for some power after drafting Ichiro. All reports coming out of spring training said he is feeling great (surprise!), which makes Bay is a nice candidate for a rebound season.

Round Eleven (Pick 164) – Ricky Romero, SP , Toronto Blue Jays

Round two of “John Danks roulette.” We missed out on both Lewis and Garza so we were left to decide between Romero and Danks. Now, we like Danks slightly better because he doesn’t pitch in the AL East and he has more of a track record, but the difference between the two isn’t too great so we decided to go with Romero and take the chance that Danks falls to us in the 13th round. We swear to ourselves that if he’s available we would finally pull the trigger (no pun intended) and take him.

As for Romero, there’s a lot to like as he made nice strides last year by improving his strikeout rate (7.5 K/9) and walk rate (3.5 BB/9). He is also a southpaw, which gives him a slight edge against some of the league’s top offenses. Going into his third full season, he should continue to take strides toward becoming a reliable No. 3 starting pitcher.

Round Twelve (Pick 167) – Ryan Franklin, RP, St. Louis Cardinals

Just three rounds after nabbing Nathan we decided to get our second closer and at this point the options were pretty slim. The only remaining full-time closers were Ryan Franklin, Fransisco Cordero and Brandon Lyon so we chose to go with Franklin as his job is probably safest. He doesn’t wow in any category, but he gets the job done so we can’t complain. Needless to say we needed another guy who could get 30 saves because chances are we aren’t going to start three closers every week in a 15-team league and you can’t have two part-time closers and expect to finish respectably in the saves category. You would have to get very lucky in the later rounds. By the way, Danks is still there.

Round Thirteen (Pick 194) – Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates

Damn! Danks was finally taken, thus ending “John Danks roulette.” It was fun while it lasted, but now we need another plan. We decide to wait on pitching and address one of the “extra” positions—middle infield. We think about Manny Ramirez and drafting our second catcher with our two picks here, but eventually decide that the dropoff at middle infield after Neil Walker is dangerous. Walker has an outside chance to hit 20 home runs while bat .280 and hopefully score some runs by batting in front of Pedro Alvarez and the powerful Lyle Overbay. OK, so he won’t be scoring 100 runs, but I’ll take 80 and be very happy.

Round Fourteen (Pick 197) – Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Colorado Rockies

Time for our second big debate—Jhoulys Chacin vs. Brian Matusz. At first, Bryan was alone on the Chacin train, but he presented an argument that I couldn’t ignore. Both pitchers have ace potential, but one had problems with home runs and pitches in the AL East. The other induces ground balls, rarely allows a home run and pitches in the NL West. When in doubt go with the groundball pitcher, who pitches in the NL and has better strikeout potential to boot. Needless to say we welcomed Chacin to Da Professors with open arms.

Round Fifteen (Pick 224) – Ryan Theriot, 2B/SS, St. Louis Cardinals

With our 15th pick we decided to finally grab Ryan Theriot to man our shortstop position. I’m feeling really good about this pick and I’ll tell you why. He should hit in the .280-range, but could hit .300 if things go his way. Almost all of his outs happen on the field as his career 12 percent strikeout rate suggests. He will bat leadoff in a very good Cardinals lineup that features Holliday, Albert Pujols and Colby Rasums, which means 100 runs isn’t out of the question and Theriot should get to 90. All that, and he’ll give you 25-30 stolen bases, which makes him very solid in three-of-five categories. You won’t find that too often with the 224th pick in the draft. Theriot is a great guy to target if you choose to wait on the shortstop position.

Part two will come once the 30th round is complete, but until then let us know what you think of our strategies and even some of your own that you implement in deep drafts.

Roster at this point:

C – Matt Wieters

1B – Kendry Morales

2B - Aaron Hill

3B - David Wright

SS - Ryan Theriot

MI - Neil Walker

CI – N/A

OF – Matt Holliday

OF – Ichiro Suzuki

OF – Jason Bay

OF - N/A

OF - N/A

P - Jon Lester

P – Matt Cain

P – Ricky Romero

P - Jhoulys Chacin

CL - Joe Nathan

CL - Ryan Franklin

P – N/A

P - N/A

P - N/A

While there is undoubtedly some luck involved in BABIP (a bloop hit or a diving catch by a fielder), a batter can influence his BABIP through his own skill. For example, a player is more likely to have a high BABIP if a high percentage of his balls put in play are line drives since line drives fall for hits much more frequently than fly balls or ground balls. Conversely, someone who doesn’t hit a lot of line drives is unlikely to have a high BABIP. A player’s speed can also affect his BABIP. For example, fast players such as Ichiro Suzuki tend to have higher BABIPs because they are more likely to beat out ground balls for base hits than slower runners.

Below is a list of the 10 players who had the lowest BABIP last year with a minimum of 400 plate appearances. I also included the players’ career BABIP, BABIP differential, 2010 LD%, career LD% and speed rating (Spd). Although speed rating is calculated by base running ability, it’s still the one of the best measures we have of determining whether or not a player is fast. For reference, the average Spd rating was 5.0 so it’s fair to say that anyone with a Spd rating south of 5.0 has below-average speed.

Player	2010 BABIP	Career BABIP	BABIP Differential	2010 LD%	Career LD%	2010 Spd Rating
Aaron Hill	.196	.288	-0.092	10.6%	18.5%	2.6
Carlos Pena	.222	.279	-0.057	14.5%	18%	2.7
Pedro Feliz	.228	.265	-0.037	12.8%	17%	2.9
Casey Kotchman	.229	.268	-0.039	17.5%	17.6%	1.5
Jose Bautista	.233	.270	-0.037	14.4%	15%	4.4
Carlos Lee	.238	.286	-0.048	15.9%	19.6%	2.3
Carlos Quentin	.241	.251	-0.01	13.9%	15.4%	3.5
Kurt Suzuki	.245	.278	-0.033	17%	18.2%	3.2
Aramis Ramirez	.245	.287	-0.042	15.8%	19.6%	1.9
Matt LaPorta	.250	.260	-0.01	12.5%	14.5%	1.6

Notes on Specific Players

Aaron Hill

As you can see, Aaron Hill’s 2010 BABIP represents a statistical anomaly and that led to his abysmal .205 batting average. Hill had the largest difference between 2010 BABIP and career BABIP on the list. While his 10.6 LD% didn’t do him any favors, that percentage is well below his career percentage of 18.5%. In 2011 you should expect more line drives from Hill which will lead to a higher BABIP and ultimately, a batting average closer to the .270s than the low .200s.

Carlos Pena

Carlos Pena is a very interesting case. He is the classic example of the “three true outcome” player, or a player most likely to strike out, walk or hit a home run. Three true outcome players generally have higher BABIPs because of their all-or-nothing approach. When they swing, they either swing and miss or drive the ball with authority. Remember, strikeouts don’t count against BABIP so when three true outcome players do put the ball in play, it’s not surprising that a high percentage will fall for hits. With that being said, Pena’s career BABIP is still below the league average. Although he is an exception to the rule, a BABIP of .222 is far too low for someone with Pena’s skill set. Expect him to hit closer to .240 next year instead of under .200 again.

Carlos Quentin

Remember when Carlos Quentin batted .288 in 2008 with 36 home runs and 100 RBI? Well, I think it’s safe to conclude that owners expecting him to regain that form will be disappointed. Over the past two years Quentin has batted .236 and .243, respectively. From the chart above you can see that Quentin’s BABIP and LD% last year weren’t all that out of line with his career norms. That tells me that Quentin just isn’t going to hit for a high average. Sure he’ll hit for power, but he doesn’t steal bases and he’s a huge injury risk. His name will make people draft him but you can do better.

All kidding aside, new GM Alex Anthopoulos has done a great job infusing this squad with young talent and has turned the Blue Jays into a serious contender in 2011. They have a seriously potent lineup, led by 2010′s home run leader Jose Bautista, and have a better pitching staff than you think.

Which players will help you get to the promised land? We have your fantasy answers here.

Guys I’m Drafting

Jose Bautista – I’m a big AA believer, both the rehab type and the GM, and the fact that Anthopoulos inked Bautista to a five-year deal just further proves that Bautista is the real deal. I expressed my doubts about Bautista, but I still think he can hit 35 home runs and has eligibility at two fairly shallow positions (3B and OF). While power is hard to come by in today’s game, Bautista brings it like the best of them. He’s a guy I’m targeting in the third-fourth rounds of draft because of his power and position eligibility. Suffice to say, I’m starting to come around a bit on Bautista.

Aaron Hill – If you want to talk about disappointments in 2010, Hill isn’t far from the top of the list. His .196 BABIP was ridiculously low and it was mostly because Hill managed to hit line drives just 10.6 percent of the time. He still managed to hit 26 home runs and I think he can bounce back and be a top-eight second basemen, which would make him a great value in the 10th-12th rounds of drafts. You can read more in my fantasy projection for Hill’s 2011 season.

Ricky Romero – Romero is a big reason why I like the Jays’ staff this year. To quote myself from a previous article, “Last season, Ricky Romero improved in all the right categories by increasing his strikeout rate from 7.13 to 7.46, lowering his walk rate from 3.99 to 3.51, and lowering his FIP from 4.33 to 3.64. Look for this former first-round pick to keep soaring towards stardom.” Man, that guy is smart!

Travis Snider – Snider is the third Blue Jays player that we have profiled this offseason and you can read his 2011 fantasy projection. He has always shown the power, but never got the playing time. Well, he’s starting in right field so it’s safe to say 25-plus home runs are in his near future. Grab him late in your drafts.

Brandon Morrow – Strikeouts, strikeouts and more strikeouts. That’s Morrow’s game in a nutshell. He made great strides in improving his walk rate to a bad, but manageable 4.06 BB/9 last season. However, hidden inside that 4.06 BB/9 was a three-month stretch where Morrow posted a 2.98 BB/9 so he is capable of great stretches. If the walks can stay down Morrow will be a borderline top-25 pitcher. That’s  a big “if” though.

Guys I’m Not Drafting

Rajai Davis – I always hear Davis being touted as a great late-round option if you want steals, but I won’t be drafting him in any leagues. He doesn’t get on base, which won’t lead to many runs, he has no power to speak of and his batting average is no guarantee to be over .280. What you are drafting is 40-50 stolen bases which you can get from other players who have promise in other categories like Brett Gardner and Peter Bourjos.

Any Blue Jays closer – Don’t get me wrong, if any one of the Blue Jays relievers had the full-time closing gig I’d be all over him in the later rounds. However what we have here is a group of four relievers (Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor and Jon Rauch) who will probably share closing duties and you can expect the leash to be very short with so many quality options.

Sleeper

Adam Lind – Every offseason I get a gut feeling about a certain player who is ready to make a comeback. Adam Lind is that guy for me this year. I won’t bore you with any numbers, but this is a guy who was a top prospect and hit over .300 with 36 home runs two years ago. Talent like that doesn’t just disappear. Make sure you don’t pass on him too many times in your draft!