Tag Archives | Aaron Hill

#1: Is second base a secret hotbed for power?

By on November 2, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

Question number one in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series read as such: “Second base seems to be a surprising hotbed for power. In standard Yahoo! leagues 12 second basemen had 18 or more home runs compared to only 11 third basemen. Will we be able to find that power again at second base next year?”

To properly answer this question, there are three smaller questions we must address:

  1. Is second base really a hotbed for power?
  2. How many guys with 18-plus home runs from 2011 are likely to repeat in 2012?
  3. What players might join 2011′s crop of 18-plus home run producers?

Each sub-question is fascinating in it’s own right, so I’m glad George had the foresight to include the larger question in our top 100 list.

Is second base really a hotbed for power?

To answer this I went back and looked at the power numbers from 2011 for each position. First, I calculated the average home run total of the top 15 players at each position since many roto leagues include as many as 15 teams and for smaller, 10-team leagues this includes all the starters and the first half of the available backups. Next, I found the median home run total of those top 15 players since some positions (third base) had skewed averages based on one or two incredible power performances (Jose Bautista). Last, since the question set the parameter of players with at least 18 home runs, I counted how many players at the position hit at least 18 home runs. The results are below.

*Outfield numbers were calculated using the top 45 home run hitters since there are three times as many outfielders compared to any other position, so “Avg of Top 15″ is really average of the top 45 and “No. with 18+ HR” was really the number of outfielders with 18-plus home runs divided by three. This keeps everything on the same scale.

Conclusion: Second base doesn’t stand out as a power-heavy position, but there was just as much power to be found there as at third base and outfield, two positions certainly more known for higher home run totals.

How many guys with 18-plus home runs in 2011 are likely to repeat in 2012?

There are three basic factors that combine to yield a player’s home run total:

  1. How many at-bats he gets
  2. How many of those at-bats result in fly balls
  3. How many of those fly balls result in home runs

To see how many second basemen in 2011′s “18 and Over Club” are likely to repeat, I looked at each of their relevant stats from 2011 as compared to the last three years (2009-2011).

The three guys shaded in gray atop the chart are the guys I consider locks for 18-plus home runs in 2012 (barring injury to Ian Kinsler). As for the rest, somehow nine guys all came within three home runs of our 18-home-run threshold, giving us very little room for error.

Interestingly enough, 10 of the 12 players here actually hit fewer fly balls in 2011 than they did on average from 2009 to 2011. This explains the small drop in home run production from second basemen from 2010 to 2011 as seven guys actually hit more than 21 home runs in 2010 versus just three in 2011. However, nine of the 12 saw an increased number of those fly balls leave the yard last season.

Dustin Pedroia hit more than 18 home runs for the first time last season, but it was actually his second straight year ahead of the pace since he managed 12 homers in just 75 games in 2010. Pedroia makes the cut.

Kelly Johnson is a real boom-or-bust power guy who’s status in this group might very well be dictated by where he signs. His two home ballparks last season, Arizona and Toronto, are very favorable home run parks for left-handed hitters with both posting park factors of 114 for home runs to lefties (according to statcorner.com). Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos says Johnson is currently “in the mix” for Toronto, so if he doesn’t sign there or with another team with a good ballpark, I’m less inclined to include him in this group.

Last season I was touting Danny Espinosa as a sleeper 20/20 threat and while the stolen bases weren’t quite there (17), the power was. He’s part of Washington’s future right now and I don’t see a good reason why he shouldn’t repeat his 2011 power production. Oh, and for what it’s worth, I projected Espinosa for 20 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Score!

Ben Zobrist hit 20 home runs last season, 27 home runs in 2009 and 12 home runs in 62 games in 2008. Like Kinsler, his 2010 season seems to defy reason, and I think he’s a very good bet to top 18 home runs again. In fact, outside of the top three that I consider locks, Zobrist is the guy I’m next most confident in.

Michael Cuddyer is a free agent and will be one of the most hotly sought after right-handed bats on the market. That means Minnesota is going to have to pay the man to continue to employ his services. Given their needs (right-handed bat) and Cuddyer’s role on the team, they just might do that. Target Field isn’t extremely home run friendly (park factor: 95), but they say the devil you know is better than the one you don’t. Right now I think he repeats, but we’ll know better in a few months.

Rickie Weeks would be that guy I was next most confident in if he didn’t still come with lingering health concerns, but at least the injury that robbed him of about 200-plus at-bats last season was a severely twisted ankle and not a recurring muscle injury. He’ll repeat, too.

It’s these last three guys that are really the most interesting. Ryan Roberts has never really displayed 18-plus home run power at any level before, but his ISO has always been respectable and sometimes it takes time for guys to turn those extra base hits into extra home runs. He managed 19 homers in just 482 at-bats despite hitting fewer fly balls last year, but he’s still a fairly extreme fly ball hitter in one of the game’s best home run parks. Arizona only slightly favors right-handed hitters for home runs (park factor: 102), and without a real threat at third base he should get around 500 at-bats next season. Can he maintain his elevated HR/FB rate? According to Hit Tracker Online, seven of Roberts’ 19 home runs had “just enough” (36.8%). The MLB average last season was 33.4 percent, so Roberts didn’t have an unusual number of lucky home runs. I tend to think he will repeat.

Howie Kendrick is the guy I’m saying “thanks for playing” to. He had two months where he combined to hit 12 home runs (April and August) and then managed just six in the other four months combined. His HR/FB rate last season was 46 percent higher than his rate from 2009 through 2011, and he has a hard time staying healthy and doesn’t hit fly balls. Too much went right for me to think this will happen again.

Brandon Phillips hasn’t hit fewer than 18 home runs in any of the last five years, but he’s hit exactly 18 in each of the last two. He’s aging, his HR/FB rate has declined every year since 2007, and I don’t think he reaches the mark again.

By my count that makes eight players I think will hit 18-plus once again plus two free agents (Johnson and Cuddyer) that the jury is still out on but I admittedly still like. Don’t count on Kendrick or Phillips repeating.

What players might join 2011′s crop of 18-plus home run producers?

Here are the names we need to seriously consider for this group: Chase Utley, Michael Young, Ryan Raburn, Neil Walker, Aaron Hill, Dustin Ackley, Jason Kipnis and Gordon Beckham.

Even though Utley has missed significant time over the last two years and hasn’t hit 18-plus home runs since the 31 he hit in 2009, I refuse to believe he’s completely done. I think he’s got one more good season left in him.

Young didn’t top four homers in any single month last year and actually hit just one in three of them. He hit 22 and 21 home runs in 2009 and 2010, respectively, but he’s getting up there in age and isn’t a fly ball hitter. Young will continue to drive in runs and hit for a high average, but I don’t think 18 home runs are in the cards.

Raburn was a huge preseason sleeper but didn’t really live up to the hype. He bounced in and out of Detroit’s lineup all season, but his .967 OPS in the second half last year showed the kind of hitter he can be. Raburn hits a lot of fly balls and I think the power is there if he’s given enough playing time. I’m going out on a limb and projecting him to hit our 18-homer benchmark.

Walker disappointed with just 12 home runs last season mainly due to both his fly ball rate and home run per fly ball rate declining from his rookie season. He had seasons of 13, 16 and 14 home runs in the minors from 2007 to 2009, respectively, and looked like that same hitter in 2010. I think he approaches 20 this season and I’m willing to bet he breaks 18.

Hill is worth taking a flier on in the last round of your draft because the potential is there, but I don’t think it’s something I want to predict right now.

Ackley and Kipnis just aren’t power hitters despite Kipnis’ mini outburst last season and I don’t think either hits 18.

As for Beckham, he’s an intriguing name. I honestly think he has a 50/50 shot to surpass 18 homers since he plays in a nice enough offensive ballpark, but right now it’s not something I think I want to expect until I see it happen once.

Which players will hit 18-plus home runs in 2012?

All of this analysis has given us 13 names that I think will hit 18 home runs as second basemen:

  • Dan Uggla
  • Ian Kinsler
  • Robinson Cano
  • Dustin Pedroia
  • Danny Espinosa
  • Ben Zobrist
  • Rickie Weeks
  • Ryan Roberts
  • Kelly Johnson
  • Michael Cuddyer
  • Chase Utley
  • Ryan Raburn
  • Neil Walker
Do you agree or disagree with my list? Leave anyone you think I’ve over- or underrated in the comments section below!
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2011 Midseason Fantasy Rankings: Second Base

By on July 16, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Position Breakdown

  • Top 25: 0 players
  • Top 50: 5 players
  • Top 100: 11 players
  • Top 200: 16 players
  • Highest Ranked Player: Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It hasn’t been pretty for second basemen in 2011. We’ve had Chase Utley and Martin Prado go down with injuries and Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill, Neil Walker and Gordon Beckham just plain old sucking.

Fortunately Ian Kinsler and Rickie Weeks have been the bastion of health (ridiculous, I know) and Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips and Michael Young being their normal selves have saved face a bit.

Lucky for the first group, they get a fresh start in the second half of the season so let’s check in and see who you should be putting all of your chips into.

1. Robinson Cano, NYY | 57 R, .297, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 6 SB

I don’t know which accomplishment Cano’s father is more proud of. His son winning the home run derby or being BaseballProf’s top ranked second baseman for the second half. It’s a toss up.

2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS | 61 R, .289, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 16 SB

Check out the speed from the little man! His previous career high is 20 steals, but he’s on pace to shatter that by the end of the month. He’s been one of the best players over the last month and there’s no reason he shouldn’t continue raking and putting on laser shows.

3. Ian Kinsler, TEX | 65 R, .253, 13 HR, 34 RBI, 19 SB

There is a lot of hate in the fantasy community. He’s always hurt this and he can’t hit for a good batting average that. Did you know Kinsler has hit .297 over the last 30 days? Bet you didn’t. He bats leadoff for one of the best offenses in the league and walks more than every second baseman not named Pedroia. His .250 BABIP this season has been very unlucky, but in 11 games in July it sits at a cool .316 (.311 AVG). I have spoken!

4. Rickie Weeks, MIL | 67 R, .273, 17 HR, 39 RBI, 7 SB

Weeks must be eating his greens because somehow he has managed to stay healthy for 1 1/2 seasons—something he hadn’t done for his entire career. The steals have been a bit down from earlier in his career, but the power is up and that’s a trade I’m willing to take especially at this position.

5. Michael Young, TEX | 42 R, .324, 8 HR, 61 RBI, 4 SB

Being the teams’ primary DH, Young finds himself sitting on the bench more often than not but that hasn’t affected his hitting. He’s starting to find his power stroke, but he’s bringing it everywhere we thought he would. Young’s as steady as they come.

6. Brandon Phillips, CIN | 57 R, .290, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB

Phillips is quietly putting up one of his best averages in his career. The last time he approached .300 was in 2007 when he also had a 30/30 season. Oh the memories. His power is a bit down this year, but I peg an unlucky 7.5 HR/FB percentage as the culprit.

7. Ben Zobrist, TB | 61 R, .269, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB

We talked about Zorilla in our first base rankings. Needless to say, his skillset fits this position much better.

8. Chase Utley, PHI | 22 R, .278, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 8 SB

The injury still scares me a bit, but he has eight steals so he must be feeling good right? Utley is one of the toughest guys to rank after what he went through this offseason, but he could easily be a top four guy if he stays on the field. Remember, if.

9. Danny Espinosa, WAS | 45 R, .243, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 12 SB

Espinosa has been one of my favorite surprises of the season and he was on a majority of waiver wires as late as June 1. I talked about him in a recent post where I called him the next Kinsler.

10. Martin Prado, ATL | 38 R, .280, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 2 SB

Prado recently came off the disabled list and homered in his first game. That’s obviously a good sign and Prado should return to .300 form soon enough. Think of him as Placido Polanco with more pop and a better lineup spot.

11. Dan Uggla, ATL | 44 R, .186, 15 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB

Yes, Uggla was lost in the first half. His .185 batting average has been known to cause nausea, vomiting and some other unspeakable things, but he still managed to hit 15 home runs. His hitting has been coming on as of late with an eight-game hitting streak in which he has batted .333 with three home runs. God help me, but I believe.

12. Neil Walker, PIT | 47 R, .263, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 5 SB

Let me get this out of the way first, I am a Walker fan. He is probably the most uncharacteristic cleanup hitter in the majors, but because of his favorable lineup spot he leads all second basemen with 60 RBIs. I think Walker is more of a .280-.290 hitter and should end the season with around 15 home runs, which is pretty good production out of a middle infielder. He’s well on his way to reaching 90+ RBIs.

13. Howard Kendrick, LAA | 43 R, .301, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 9 SB

Kendrick was also talked about in the first base rankings post, but he belongs here. He started off with a great April where he hit .308 with six home runs and 12 RBI. Since then the average has been the same (.297), but his power has completely vanished (2 HR, 17 RBI). Kendrick has normally been one of those guys who tends to come on later in the season so I’d keep an eye on him.

14. Michael Cuddyer, MIN | 42 R, .292, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB

No need to reiterate what’s already been said. Check back to our midseason first base rankings, press Ctrl + F, and type in “Cuddyer.”

15. Kelly Johnson, ARI | 50 R, .216, 16 HR, 42 RBI, 8 SB

Johnson is doing his best Uggla impression except he’s winning because he also runs. Make sure you plan around that bad average, but he’s not bad for a guy with a girl’s name.

16. Aaron Hill, TOR | 29 R, .234, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 13 SB

Hill might just be the most frustrating player in baseball not named Billy Butler. He had that monster 2009 season, then followed it up with a horrible 2010 compaign in which he hit .205, but had 26 home runs. This year, he’s just decided to suck all around and there’s no way to explain it. He has 13 steals, which no one saw coming, but can we really expect them to keep coming? Regardless, I’m a sucker for power-hitting second basemen so he still has some potential in my eyes.

17. Dustin Ackley, SEA | 12 R, .289, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB

Ackley started off hot with a five-game hitting streak and batted .302 in his first 13 games with two home runs. Still, he’s only 23, in a pitcher’s park and in a horrible lineup. He might hit close to .300, but the runs and RBI won’t be there and I don’t see him making a big dent in either home runs or steals this year.

18. Ty Wigginton, COL | 37 R, .252, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 5 SB

Wigginton is prone to these ridiculous power-hitting streaks, much like the one we saw at the end of June (6 HR in 8 games). It’s then, and only then, that you should own him.

19. Brett Lawrie, TOR | 51 R, .354, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 11 SB (Triple-A)

Lawrie was ready to get called up and then he had to go ahead and get hit by a pitch on his hand. Ok, ok it’s not his fault, but it set him back considerably. I’m a little cautious because we’ve seen so many rookies struggle after being called up this year, but he’s worth the gamble especially in keeper leagues.

20. Gordon Beckham, CHW | 35 R, .248, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 2 SB

Will we see another resurgence by Beckham in the second half? I don’t see it happening and he definitely won’t be on my team if it does. Don’t these prospects know that they are supposed to be getting better?

21. Ryan Roberts, ARI | 48 R, .258, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 13 SB

If you didn’t sell high after Roberts’ hot start in April I just have one question for you: WHAT WERE YOU THINKING?!?

22. Alexi Casilla, MIN | 43 R, .255, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 13 SB

 Nothing to see here except a tiny guy running fast. But there’s some value in that.

23. Darwin Barney, CHC | 40 R, .300, 1 HR, 32 RBI, 4 SB

His empty batting average is sort of like Ritz crackers. They are very good, but you are never left satisfied.

24. Mark Ellis, COL | 34 R, .237, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 8 SB

Ellis has had a small comeback (.327/.365/.612) after taking his talents to Colorado. Still he’s burned us so many times before it’s hard to believe.

25. Jemile Weeks, OAK | 15 R, .294, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 8 SB

Weeks has a chance to help you in steals and that’s about it. His batting average will be mediocre and his power numbers will be non-existent. Still, if you feel the need for speed it seems like Weeks is here to stay so pick him up. Then go watch a Fast and the Furious marathon.

Honorable Mention 

Daniel Murphy, NYM | 35 R, .307, 5 HR, 36 RBI, 4 SB

Murphy is your typical “do nothing great, but everything solid” player. At least Weeks has a chance to be dominant in one category.

Don’t like my rankings? Tell me about it in the comments section or on Twitter @BaseballProf.

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Thursday's Recap: Josh Beckett is officially back

By on April 22, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Josh Beckett continued his stellar 2011 campaign by pitching eight innings against the Angels and allowing only two runs. He lowered his ERA to 1.93 and his WHIP to 0.79. For the season his K/9 now stands at an even 9.0.

I think it’s safe to say that Beckett is over the injury issues that plagued him all last season. He’s locating his fastball better and he’s dialing it up to the mid-90s when he needs to. Beckett is also throwing his patented two-seamer with consistency, a pitch he needs to strike out left-handed batters. Add in a hard changeup that darts down in the zone and Beckett is now equipped with all the pitches that made him a Cy Young contender in 2009.

My preseason vote for comeback player of the year was James Shields, and while he’s off to a strong start, I may have to change my vote to Beckett.

Three Up

Kyle Lohse, SP, STL – CG, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 6 K

Scott Baker, SP, MIN – 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 9 K

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – 3-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR

Three Down

Daniel Hudson, SP, ARZ – 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 7 ER, 3 K

James McDonald, SP, PIT – 3 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 ER, 3 K

Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT- 0-for-5, 2 K, 3 LOB

Notes:

  • Grady Sizemore collected three more hits to raise his batting average to .421. However he has yet to attempt a stolen base and I don’t anticipate him stealing more than 10-15 on the season. Without top end speed Sizemore becomes just another outfielder with power and a low batting average. If you can find someone in your league who believes in a Sizemore turn around I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him.
  • Although Brandon McCarthy got the loss, he pitched another gem against the Mariners, holding them to four hits and one run in eight innings. He also struck out six batters and lowered his ERA and WHIP to 2.10 and 1.00, respectively. If you haven’t bought into McCarthy’s hot start do so immediately. He has completely overhauled his pitching style by adding a low 90s sinker and a cut fastball to his arsenal. At 27 years old, the former top prospect may finally be reaching his potential.
  • Filling in for the injured Logan Morrison, Scott Cousins went 2-for-4 with a home run and 4 RBI. The 26 year old hasn’t had many at-bats at the major league level but he showed the ability to hit for power and speed in the minor leagues. Cousins may sit against left-handers in favor of Emilio Bonifacio but he makes for a speculative add in deeper leagues while Morrison recovers from a foot injury that’s expected to keep him out two to four weeks.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

  • Kevin Youkilis left Thursday’s game after fouling a Tyler Chatwood pitch off his left foot. … Logan Morrison was placed on the DL with a foot sprain. He’s expected to be out two to four weeks. … Angel Pagan left yesterday’s game with a pulled muscle on the left side of his body. He’s doubtful for today’s game. … Daric Barton missed Thursday’s game with an illness. … Aaron Hill‘s MRI results were inconclusive and he’s questionable for tonight’s game. A DL stint could be looming.
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Tuesday's Recap: Jimenez makes his return

By on April 20, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Ubaldo Jimenez made his triumphant return to the mound yesterday and while his final line (5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K) didn’t cause any dropped jaws, there were some good signs that he is ready to be a fantasy ace.

First, almost of all the damage was done in Jimenez’s first inning back from the DL. The Giants scored four runs (three on Pablo Sandoval‘s home run) and tallied four hits and one walk during the game’s first half inning. After that, Jimenez held his opponent to two hits and one walk while striking out five over four shutout innings. It’s clear he had some rust to shake off and once he did it was vintage Ubaldo.

Going forward, it’s clear that we aren’t going to see the Jimenez we saw in the first half of 2010, but it’s safe to say that he is a top 20 pitcher with potential to sneak into the top 10. The Rockies did the right thing taking it slow with him early in the year to make sure he is able to contribute long term rather than right away in April. Something all Jimenez owners should be very thankful for.

Three Up

Peter Bourjos, OF, LAA - 4-for-5, 3 R, HR, 3 RBI

James Shields, SP, TB - CG, 4 H, ER, BB, 9 K

Brett Anderson, SP, OAK - 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, BB, 8 K

Three Down

Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA - 0-for-6, 2 K, 3 LOB

Adam Dunn, 1B, CHW - 0-for-4, 3 K, 2 LOB

Paul Maholm, SP, PIT - 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

Notes:

  • We touted James Shields as bounce back pitcher and he has delivered in the early going. Last night, he allowed just one run, four hits and one walk while striking out nine over nine innings. I’d still like to see his strikeout rate (6.14) improve, but it’s definitely manageable if he can keep his walks down much like his years prior to 2010.
  • Don’t look now, but Matt Wieters‘ bat might finally be waking up. The young catcher went 2-for-3 with three runs and four RBI. It’s his third consecutive game with a hit and he is 6-for-20 over his last six games and could be finally figuring it out at the plate. He should already be owned in all leagues, but if you are currently without a steady catcher, he could be a decent guy to target before he takes off.
  • Before last night, the Toronto Blue Jays led the majors with 21 team steals and leading the way is Aaron Hill, who stole his sixth base of the season. Manager John Farrell is encouraging his team to run early and often so this isn’t necessarily a fluke. I do expect Hill to raise his batting average and if he can get on base more he could get to 20 steals this year. Given his previous career-high is six, that would be  a huge boost in his value. Along with Hill, other Blue Jays will experience some added value with the extra steals they will earn.
  • The Ian Stewart experiment, or should I say failure, just added another chapter as the Rockies sent him down to make room for Jimenez. The slumping third baseman will get plenty of at-bats in the minors and I’m sure he will succeed and give plenty of fantasy owners false hope. I’m not falling for it. Start buying on Ty Wigginton.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Speaking of Hill, he left the game in the sixth inning after his steal and is day-to-day with a strained hamstring. … Evan Longoria is eyeing a return by the end of the month. … Toronto activated reliever Frank Francisco from the disabled list. … Jason Bay, who is due back soon, went 4-for-4 with two home runs in a rehab game. … Logan Morrison left the game in the fifth inning with a strained arch in his left foot and hopes to be back in a couple days. … Grady Sizemore got one of his scheduled days off yesterday and will play three or four out of every five days over the next couple of weeks.

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Friday’s Recap: Texas offense picks up where it left off

By on April 2, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

It didn’t take long for the Texas Rangers to show that their offense will probably be one of baseball’s best yet again.

Ian Kinsler hit a home run in the Rangers’ first at-bat of the season while Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli also added bombs of their own. Overall, Texas muscled out six extra base hits (even Elvis Andrus joined the party with a double!)out of 10 total hits.

More impressively the team struck out a combined one time in a game where they faced one of baseball’s best strikeout pitchers in Jon Lester. The strikeout, for the record, went to Daniel Bard in the eighth inning.

It’s the same old story with the Rangers hitters as they will score plenty of runs to go around. Their lineup was loaded from one through seven last night and on days where Napoli catches we will see another quality bat in Mitch Moreland in the lineup, giving Texas eight solid hitters and Julio Borbon. All should be owned in mixed leagues.

Three Up
Carlos Quentin, OF, CHW - 3-5, 2 R, HR, 5 RBI
J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR - 3-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3B, 5 RBI
Jeremy Guthrie, SP, BAL - 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB

Three Down
Carl Crawford, OF, BOS - 0-4, 3 K, 5 LOB
Brandon Lyon, CL, HOU - 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 ER
Fausto Carmona, SP, CLE - 3 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 5 K, BB

Notes:

  • Everyone worried about Ichiro Suzuki can probably squash those concerns until the second half because I still think those 37-year-old legs will get tired by the end of the year. However, Ichiro has shown that he like to run a lot early so it would be wise to take advantage and then cut bait. Last year, he stole nearly the same number of bases before (22) the break as after (20), but over the last three years his split is 75/36…Felix Hernandez turned in another gem giving up just two runs while striking out five in a complete-game effort. Ho-hum.
  • Along with the Rangers, the Blue Jays seem to be the same home-run-hitting team we all loved last year. Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Arencibia (two home runs) each went deep. Arencibia even added a triple, rewarding those owners who waited on catchers in their drafts. Be prepared for a streaky, but solid, season from the rookie catcher…It was nice to see Lind homer as both the Blue Jays and fantasy owners hope he can return to his 2009 MVP-caliber form…Ricky Romero showed why I love him this year with a 13:5 GB:FB ratio and striking out seven batters over 6 1/3 innings.
  • Hey, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-0! If the Pirates are going to do any type of damage it’s going to be because of their young core of Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. While Alvarez did nothing, the other three combined for five of Pirates’ seven hits, two home runs, one steal and all six of their RBI. McCutchen, who will be batting third this season after leading off all of last year, should have plenty more RBI opportunities and just adds another facet to his fantasy game.

Nicks, cuts and bruises:

Toronto’s Aaron Hill, who battled a quadriceps injury during spring training, left yesterday’s game after the seventh inning with the Blue Jays up 10-3…Florida’s Mike Stanton left yesterday’s game after five innings with hamstring tightness…Dodger’s Juan Uribe missed last night’s game with swelling in his elbow after getting hit by a pitch…Oakland’s Kurt Suzuki left last night’s game in the seventh with a mild ankle sprain.

Links around the Major Leagues:

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2011 Preseason Fantasy Baseball Awards

By on March 26, 2011 | Comments { 2 }

It’s so close you can almost smell it.

Opening day is just five days away and we are almost freed from having to watch Bartolo “El Gordo” Colon pitch (or maybe not).

As sure as I am that I haven’t seen the last snow fall in New England, there will be plenty of prediction articles coming out before Thursday’s opener. We decided to join the party.

Most valuable fantasy player

Chris Campanelli – Matt Kemp

Kemp is being drafted in the third round but he can easily provide first round value. Despite a down year he still managed to hit 28 home runs and steal 19 bases last year. Unlike previous seasons Kemp will bat cleanup this year which will help his RBI totals. He’s also in better shape and has been working with first base coach Davey Lopes to improve his base-stealing ability.

George Fitopoulos – Aaron Hill

Hill won’t end the year as a top-35 player, but if you’re looking for a player who should greatly out produce his average draft position then Hill is your guy. He is currently being drafted 114th overall, which is fine—if he hits .210 again. Before last year, Hill batted over .285 in three of his four professional seasons so it’s safe to assume that last year was a fluke. However, the 30-home run potential isn’t and Hill could very easily end the year as a top-50 player at a 12th round price. Now that’s value.

Worst value of the season

Chris – Dan Uggla

We know Uggla has power but fantasy owners are making him an early fourth round pick based on his .287 batting average last year. However, his BABIP was 28 points higher than his career average and his line drive percentage of 17.8 percent wasn’t nearly good enough to explain the increase. Uggla really isn’t that much different than Aaron Hill who is going 77 picks later.

George – C.C. Sabathia

I’m not buying Sabathia this year. I already hate drafting pitchers early, but if I’m drafting one in the third round Sabathia isn’t the guy I’m targeting. Sabathia had his worst K/9 (7.46) and BB/9 (2.8) since 2005 yet won a career-high 21 games. If you want wins then sure Sabathia is a great guy to own, but his value at the end of the year is going to be no greater than pitchers like Dan Haren, Cole Hamels and Josh Johnson who are going four rounds later.

Comeback player of the year

Chris – James Shields

After posting a 5.18 ERA last year, many people are giving up on Shields. But if you look closer at his numbers you’ll see that his xFIP was 3.72 and that he increased his K/9 from 6.84 to 8.28. Shields is also very durable, having pitched 200-plus innings in four consecutive seasons. He’s definitely a top 50 starting pitcher even though he isn’t being treated like one.

George – Carlos Pena

Aaron Hill (love him this year, can’t you tell?) could also go in this category after his horrible 2010 season, but Pena fits just as well. His .196 batting average was very unlucky last year (.222 BABIP) and made his stock plummet in drafts (147 ADP). His career BABIP, including last year, is .279 so expect him to hit around .240, which is much more bearable. With half of his games coming at Wrigley Field, Pena should return to being a 30-home run hitter and drive in 90-100 runs.

Biggest surprise of the year

Chris – Michael Morse

A journeyman for most of his career, Morse earned 266 at-bats last year with the Nationals and clubbed 15 home runs. He carried that hot hitting over to the spring and won the starting left fielder job. It takes some players longer than most to develop power and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Morse seems to be another one of those classic late bloomers, in the mold of Ryan Ludwick and Jose Bautista. Hitting behind Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth will only help his fantasy value.

George – Derek Jeter

Everyone is expecting the 36-year-old to fall of the face of the earth, but not this guy. Jeter has one last chance to show the world that he is worth the $16 million he held out for. He’s only one year removed from a .334 average with 18 home runs and 30 stolen bases. I think Jeter is a good bet to hit .300 with double-digit home runs, over 20 steals and 100-plus runs. Draft accordingly.

M(ost) V(aluable) P(rospect)

Chris – Craig Kimbrel

Rookie closers seems to have more success than rookies at other positions. First it was Andrew Bailey, then Neftali Feliz and now it will be Kimbrel. Although he’s initially going to share closing duties with Jonny Venters, Kimbrel should eventual seize the job. In 20.2 innings with the Braves last year his ERA was a minuscule 0.44 and his K/9 was an astonishing 17.42. He’s wild at times but with such an electric arm it might not matter. He could be the next coming of Carlos Marmol.

George – Jake Fox

Look for 2011 to be a much more normal year when it comes to rookies. We were all spoiled last year with one of the best crop of rookies in a long time. Mat Latos, Jayson Heyward, Mike Stanton, Wade Davis, Brian Matusz and Jhoulys Chacin aren’t coming through that door. Fox isn’t technically a rookie, but he’s never landed a starting job. He’s been raking this spring and will have eligibility almost everywhere, including catcher. Take a flyer on him especially in deeper leagues.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Value Team

By on March 10, 2011 | Comments { 1 }

I’m sure you look at one of these lists every year. The writer picks the player from each position that delivered the most value. It’s not necessarily the best player but rather the player that delivered the most bang for your buck. Sure these lists are fun to read but they’re not particularly useful since they aren’t written until the end of year.

Now imagine reading that list, going back in time and redoing your draft. Well that’s just what you’re about to do.

I present to you the 2011 Fantasy Baseball All-Value Team.

Catcher

Geovany Soto (ESPN ADP: 134.3) – Can someone please explain to me why Brian McCann is going in the fifth or sixth round while Soto isn’t going until the middle rounds? The last two years McCann hit 21 home runs and batted .281 and .269. Last year Soto hit 17 home runs and batted .280 in only 322 at-bats. With Lou Piniella no longer managing the Cubs and jerking Soto in and out of the lineup, he should once again approach the 500 at-bats he received in his rookie season when he batted .285 with 23 home runs.

First Base

Prince Fielder (ESPN ADP: 25.4) – Six first basemen are being drafted ahead of Fielder in ESPN leagues. But I ask you, how many of them can hit 40-plus home runs and drive in 115 RBI? And it’s not like Fielder, with his career .279 batting average, is Adam Dunn where you have to wonder if he’s going to hit under .250. As much as I like someone like Adrian Gonzalez I’d rather draft David Wright in round one and pick up Fielder in round three.

Second Base

Aaron Hill (ESPN ADP: 113.2) – Power is hard to come by this year but Hill has 62 home runs in the past two years yet he’s not even considered a top 10 second baseman. The .205 average is surely scaring people off but keep in mind his BABIP was a ridiculously low .196. Consider Hill’s batting averages in ’06, ’07 and ’09: .291, .291 and .286. People are drafting Dan Uggla in the fourth round but he only has two more home runs than Hill over the past two years and his career batting average is .263.

Third Base

Casey McGehee (ESPN ADP: 91.2) – Only three third basemen batted .285 or higher with at least 20 home runs and 100 RBI last year and McGehee was one of them. But since he only has two seasons under his belt and wasn’t a highly regarded prospect, McGehee is barely regarded at a top 10 third­­ baseman. If you miss out on a top 5 third baseman you should ignore Adrian Beltre, Michael Young and Aramis Ramirez and wait for McGehee a few rounds later.

Shortstop

Stephen Drew (ESPN ADP: 109.8) – Even though shortstop is the thinnest position this year not many people consider Drew a top 100 player. However, not many shortstops have more power than Drew does. His ISO was .181 last year and .211 in 2008 when he hit 21 home runs. But the reason I think Drew will provide a lot of value this year is that I think he can steal 20 bases even though he’s never had more than 10 in a season. Prior to being named the Diamondbacks manager, Kirk Gibson worked closely with base runners and was credited with improving the base running ability of players such as Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. Now as manager of the club, he wants his team to be more aggressive on the base paths which is music to the ears of Drew’s owners.

Outfield

Matt Kemp (ESPN ADP: 28.2) – Kemp can be had in the third round but he has the potential to put up first round numbers. Despite a down year he still had 82 runs, 28 home runs, 89 RBI and 19 stolen bases. With so few top end outfielders, Kemp could easily be the best at the position this year. Reports out of Dodgers camp are that new manager Don Mattingly will bat Kemp cleanup and allow him to run more. Sign me up please.

Starting Pitcher

Josh Beckett (ESPN ADP: 168.8) – It’s easy to disregard a pitcher after a down year when starting pitching depth is so deep. But I can’t fathom why 41 starters are going ahead of Beckett when so few pitchers outside the top 20 have the potential to be a fantasy ace like he does. Beckett battled injuries all last year and as a result, his K/BB ratio was his worst in years. But his 2010 issues are behind him and he’s feeling great, despite the concussion scare early in spring training. With the potent Sox offense behind him, not many pitchers have more win potential than Beckett.

Relief Pitcher

Joe Nathan (ESPN ADP: 157.1) – Nathan isn’t being drafted as a top 15 relief pitcher because he missed all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. However, he hasn’t suffered any setbacks in spring training and he’s beginning to look like his old self. If his health continues to hold up there’s no reason why he can’t finish among the top five relief pitchers.

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