Tag Archives | 3B

Player Profile #65: Michael Young | 1B/2B/3B | TEX

By on February 9, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

To all you Michael Young haters out there, lay off the dude!  We’ve written a lot about the great values you can find targeting low-average hitters with great power/speed combos, but you can’t build a balanced fantasy roster without a couple guys who do the opposite. Young represents the very best of this “opposite” class of players. He’s batted over .300 in seven of the last nine years, and in those other two seasons he checked in at .284. He’s batted over .310 six times, over .320 three times and over .330 two times. Everyone raves about how his .338 average last season was a fluke, but his .320 xBA shows it wasn’t really that high. The guy hit line drives over 26 percent of the time! Will the power come back? I ran the number’s on Young’s home run power and concluded he could still hit 20 homers in Texas, so expect him to improve on the 11 we saw last season. (Note: as you see below, Young has very few good comparisons. If you think he compares better with someone else, leave it in the comments section.)

Best case scenario: Dustin Pedroia (BOS) without the SB
Similar players: Aramis Ramirez (MIL), Adrian Beltre (TEX) with fewer HR, Kevin Youkilis (BOS) but less injury-prone
Worst case scenario: Billy Butler (KC)…fewer HR but more R so it balances out

Strengths

BA, RBI, durability. Young will bat .300. I will flat out guarantee that, and a .300 average batting fourth for the juggernaut Texas Rangers should equal a 95-plus RBI season. Young isn’t the fastest guy out there, but he will score runs hitting in the core of the Rangers lineup, and it’s always easier to rack up the counting stats (particularly runs and RBI) when you’re around 700 plate appearances every season.

Weaknesses

HR on the road. Young doesn’t have a ton of power to begin with, but his power on the road was almost non-existent last season as he hit just one homer away from the Ballpark in Arlington. He’s only topped five homers on the road once in the last five years (2009) and has 100 homers at home for his career versus just 69 on the road.

ADP Report (70.6)

Young ranked 36th last season even though he had just 17 homers and stolen bases combined. I’d expect the average to fall and the homers to rise, and that should result in another underrated season. In 2010 he batted just .284 but hit 21 homers, and it’s likely that his 2012 average and homer total will both fall somewhere between his 2011 and 2010 numbers. That should equal a rank in the 36-70 range as well, making this ADP a good value, especially if you plan on taking one of those low-average guys I wrote about in the intro.

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Player Profile #72: Aramis Ramirez | 3B | MIL

By on February 7, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Milwaukee, meet Aramis Ramirez, or, as many will come to know him, not Prince Fielder. Ramirez is a nice player, a very good player even. He’s a .300 hitter (when healthy), still has enough pop to hit 30 homers (when healthy) and, if guys do their job and get on base in front of him, he can still drive in 100 runs (when healthy). There’s one problem with Ramirez, though. Sometimes he’s not healthy. He played 149 games last season and 149 games in 2008, but those two seasons bookended years of 82 games (2009) and 124 games (2010). He’s played more than 132 games just twice in the last five seasons. On the plus side, though, he does that cool factor. I mean, he’s one of just a handful of players who fantasy leaguers tend to reference by their first name. Then again, cool isn’t a category. At least not in standard leagues.

Best case scenario: Adrian Beltre (TEX)
Similar players: Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Michael Young (TEX), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: An injury-shortened .280/15/70 season

Strengths

BA, RBI, HR. Ramirez has batted over .300 twice in the last three seasons and has been under .289 just once in the last  eight years (2010 was a fluke). He’ll bat fourth for Milwaukee with Rickie Weeks and Nyjer Morgan at the top, and Corey Hart is pretty good protection. Even though Ramirez hasn’t hit 30 homers since 2006 (38), I think he has a good shot this year (assuming health). Wrigley Field and Miller Park play pretty much the same in terms of home runs, and since Ramirez didn’t switch leagues (or even divisions) he’ll play pretty much the same number of game’s in the same parks he’s been in for the majority of his career (which started out with the NL Central Pirates, too, no less).

Weaknesses

Ryan Braun, injuries, SB. To clarify, it’s Braun’s likely suspension that’s a weakness for Ramirez. When the season kicks off, Ramirez will have to go his first 50 games in the middle of his new team’s lineup without said lineup’s best weapon. At least things can only get better, right? The injuries are a legitimate concern, and I suppose it would be lazy of me to not mention Ramirez is almost incapable of stealing bases.

ADP Report (69.1)

When healthy (tired of hearing that yet?), Ramirez is easily a top 60 player. Health risks push his ADP down, but third base is deeper than I initially realized this season, which means one of two things: you can afford to wait on a third baseman or you can risk taking an injury-prone stud because backups are plentiful. I’m a fan of the latter, so go ahead and draft Ramirez here.

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Player Profile #76: Pablo Sandoval | 3B | SF

By on February 6, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Pablo Sandoval has had some wildly erratic seasons in his short career, but what else would you expect from a player with a swing-first mentality? Over the last three seasons there have been 304 players who’ve totaled 750 plate appearances (an average of 250 per season). Sandoval’s 58.3 percent swing rate ranks second highest behind only Vladimir Guerrero. Despite that high swing rate, though, Sandoval ranks 132nd of those 304 in contact rate. His 18.3 percent line drive rate ranks just 188th over that span, but it improved last season to 19.5 percent. Of course, all of this is just the long way of saying that Sandoval is improving, and his 23 homers last season were just two shy of his career high…in 36 fewer games.

Best case scenario: Mike Morse (WAS) from 2011
Similar players: Aramis Ramirez (MIL), Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Carlos Beltran (STL)
Worst case scenario: Jhonny Peralta (DET)

Strengths

Conditioning, BA, HR.I never thought I’d list Sandoval’s conditioning as a strength, but he’s reportedly dropped weight again and is serious about being in good shape. I don’t necessarily believe Sandoval is a .315 hitter, even though he’s done it twice in the last three seasons, but he should be right around .300 again. In a full season, Sandoval could push 30 homers.

Weaknesses

Lineup, HR at home. The additions of Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan and the return of Buster Posey definitely offset the loss of Andres Torres (in the Pagan trade), but San Francisco’s lineup is still a work in progress. AT&T Park is also a tough place for lefties to hit homers, and Sandoval takes most of his cuts from the left side of the plate. Last season he hit just seven homers at home in 210 at-bats while clubbing 16 on the road in 216 at-bats. However, in the interest of full disclosure, it should be noted that this homer trend does not hold up in either of his other two full seasons, so take it with a grain of salt…something I’m sure Sandoval has been cutting out of his diet.

ADP Report (68.4)

Sandoval’s breakout 2009 season carried him all the way to 46th in the rankings, but he did bat .330 that season. I don’t expect his average to be that high, but the rest of his numbers are likely repeatable and his homer total could increase. That would slot Sandoval right in the 60s or so, but his erratic approach isn’t without its downsides, namely how prone he is to equally erratic numbers.

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Player Profile #93: Brett Lawrie | 3B | TOR

By on February 2, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Brett Lawrie gained some fans during his 15 minutes (or 43 games) of fame last season. Over a full season (let’s say 150 games) his 2011 totals would have looked something like this: 91 runs, .293 BA, 31 homers, 87 RBI, 24 SB. Because I know you’re wondering, that line would have ranked 20th overall last season. Yes, those numbers are correct. Of course, it’s way too soon to be drafting Lawrie in the second round of your fantasy draft, but stardom is in this kid’s future.

Best case scenario: Ian Kinsler (TEX)
Similar players: Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Chris Young (ARI) with a better BA
Worst case scenario: Ryan Roberts (ARI)

Strengths

Minor league resume, HR/SB combo. Lawrie has been promoted rather quickly throughout the minors, but he’s performed at every stop. He hit 18 homers in just 69 games at triple-A last season and stole 30 bases at double-A in 2010. He’s done it before, and his HR/SB combo could be lethal.

Weaknesses

Experience, possibly Ks. With just 43 games of major league experience, it’s certainly possible that Lawrie might need a bit of seasoning before becoming a fantasy star. He may be ready right now, but you’re going to have to invest a high draft pick to get him. While his 18.1 percent strikeout rate in the majors last year wasn’t that bad, any higher might have some serious negative effects on his batting average.

ADP Report (55.9)

We had a nice little debate in the comments section of one of our Brett Lawrie fantasy posts a few weeks back where I projected Lawrie for 80 runs, a .273 BA, 23 homers, 80 RBI and 25 stolen bases. Those numbers would have been good for 64th overall last year, but there’s definitely a good amount of risk projecting a first-year player for those kind of homer and steal totals. I’m higher on Lawrie than the rest of the Baseball Professor staff, so I’d say this ADP is a good time to start thinking about drafting Lawrie, but it might be a bit too rich for my blood. But only a bit.

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Player Profile #127: Mark Reynolds | 1B/3B | BAL

By on January 24, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Mark Reynolds is the inverse of an Elvis Andrus, Michael Bourn or Dee Gordon. He’s all power, but it comes at the expense of batting average. Let’s get this out of the way; the nice thing about home runs is they positively affect three categories (R, HR, RBI) whereas stolen bases only affect one (SB, duh). And yes, I’m aware that I’m ignoring how homers affect batting average, but that’s OK in my book. The long and the short of it is that elite power hitters are rare, and you need to pay to get them. That’s why we see Reynolds rank near the top 125 despite batting .221 last season and .198 the year before. He’ll hit homers, drive in runs and even score a few himself (even if it means he has to drive himself in over 40 percent of the time).

Best case scenario: Dan Uggla (ATL)
Similar players: J.J. Hardy (BAL), Josh Willingham (MIN)…usually we do a third but even these two are a stretch.
Worst case scenario: Carlos Pena (TB)

Strengths

HR and, by association, R and RBI. Reynolds has been an everyday starter since 2007. Since then, he ranks 12th in the league in home runs hit. He’s good for 80-plus RBI each year and should score 80-plus runs too. Both of those are by virtue of his ability to hit the long ball, but you read the intro so you know that already.

Weaknesses

Strikeouts, batting average, vs. Power Pitchers. Over that same five-year span referenced above, Reynolds has the highest strikeout rate of the 332 players with enough at-bats to qualify (I don’t know how many at-bats this is, but Fangraphs is never wrong). He’ll kill your batting average, and he’s exceptionally awful versus power pitchers. Baseball Reference classifies pitchers as power, finesse or somewhere in the middle, and power pitchers are those who finished in the top third of the league in walks plus strikeouts. Against power pitchers, Reynolds batted .147 last year, so bench him against guys that fit this mold. No amount of power can make up for that little production.

ADP Report (119.0)

I can get on board with drafting Reynolds this high if your team needs power in the worst way, but if you’ve already got a substantial amount of power, especially from power scarce positions like catcher (Carlos Santana) or shortstop (Troy Tulowitzki), then I’d absolutely pass on Reynolds at 119 and even at 127 (where we ranked him).

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Mike Moustakas: 2012 Fantasy Sleeper

By on January 12, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Last season we heard a great deal about the Royals’ next All-Star prospect, Mike Moustakas. Fantasy owners, especially in keeper leagues, were delighted for his call-up to the bigs in mid-June last year. However, Moose didn’t pan out the way everyone hoped. He finished his 2011 MLB campaign with a not-so-stellar .263/.309/.367 slash line with 26 runs, five homers and 30 RBI (mind you, four of those homers came in the month of September). Could the tide be turning for the Moose?

Now, fantasy experts have Moustakas being taken in the late rounds or falling to the waiver wire. Let’s dig in and see what we can expect from the Royals’ 2012 starting third baseman.

Moose was the second pick in the 2007 MLB June Amateur Draft by the Royals and ranked ninth on Baseball America’s Top Prospects list heading into 2011. He spent parts of five seasons in the Kansas City minor league system, playing in 439 games. In his minor league career, Moose slashed a line of .282/.337/.503 with 84 dingers, 21 steals and 335 RBI. The Moose got loose in three of his minor league seasons, hitting over 20 long balls three times and over 30 once.

So, what went wrong with Moose’s 2011 MLB campaign after he put up very respectable numbers in the minors? His walk rate of 6.9 percent in the minors, although lower than one would want to see in a hitter, translated to a 6.0 percent rate in the majors while his strikeout rate decreased since his call up (17.0% to 14.0%). His .296 BABIP was not overly impressive and could improve this year, but that wouldn’t be the telling factor. His HR/FB rate was an abysmal 4.2 percent, leading to just five homers in his shortened MLB campaign. With a HR/FB rate that low and a fly ball rate of 41.2 percent, one could only expect more long balls. His 20 percent line drive rate should translate to a better BABIP, too.

The best way to predict Moustakas’ future in the majors would be to compare him to his cross-diamond counterpart who traveled a similar path to the show, Eric Hosmer. Hosmer impressed with a .293/.334/.465 slash line in his rookie campaign with the Royals, stroking 19 long balls and driving in 78 runs in an up and coming Kansas City lineup. Here’s a comparison of the two future stars’ minor league statistics:

While Hosmer hits for a better average and gets on base more often, the thing that stands out to me is the power numbers. Moose has a higher slugging percentage, albeit not by much, and much higher AB/HR rate and RBI/GM rates. Then, when you compare the MLB HR/FB rate, one could only expect Moose’s major league numbers to rise tremendously and possibly surpass Hosmer’s in 2012.

Moose’s Strengths

Power potential, position stability, lineup and high line drive rate. Moose can hit the ball hard on a line in every at-bat, which eventually will translate to higher totals in his power game and batting average. With a higher BABIP, this guy could hit .290 with 25 homers. He’s surrounded by a young and upcoming Royals lineup but has the comfort of staying in his position (unless we see an Adam Dunn-like collapse). He has the potential to hit at least 20 homers in 2012.

Moose’s Weaknesses

Speed and experience. Moose has a ton of potential, mainly in the power columns, however, having potential to succeed or surpass expectations also means expectations are probably low and there is potential to fail miserably. While Moustakas could hit 20-plus long balls and drive in 80-plus runs, he will not stand out in any category (especially steals with just 21 stolen bases in 439 minor league games). His inexperience is also cause for concern, as he could easily take a downturn and head back to the minors if the Royals choose to do so.

Prediction

.278/.333/.498, 20 HR, 77 RBI, 58 R, 4 SB

I have high hopes for Moose, and I’m going out on a limb and say he’ll be a top 10 third baseman this year. Third base could be one of the weakest positions, especially given how reliant the strength of the position is on the health of some historically injury-prone players, and if you can scoop the Moose up in the late rounds (especially in keeper leagues), why not take the chance on him? Save your draft picks early on, invest in other positions and take a shot on Moose. I know I will.

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Player Profile #172: Ryan Roberts | 2B/3B | ARI

By on January 9, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t do my due diligence last season when Ryan Roberts broke out. Someone had already swooped in to pick him up off free agency and I had a red-hot Michael Young at third base. Why did I need a low-average, middling power/speed guy who just seemed like the next hot bat? Once last season finished up I took the time to look at Roberts’ 2011 season which, despite a .249 average, was good enough for 106th overall. It seems that’s the kind of season we could be expecting on a yearly basis now. What’s really fascinating is that Roberts does not have a good third base comparison. Seriously, steals are almost completely lacking at the position, David Wright notwithstanding. And while we’re being honest, I’ll also admit that I’m higher on Roberts than the rest of the Baseball Professor staff. He has the starting job in Arizona and could (should?) eclipse 20 homers and steals this season. Welcome to the club, baby!

Best case scenario: Ben Zobrist (TB)
Similar players: Danny Espinosa (WAS), Chase Utley (PHI), Seth Smith (COL)
Worst case scenario: Neil Walker (PIT)

Strengths

20/20 potential, walks a lot (OBP). Roberts is cut straight from the Ben Zobrist mold, right down to his mediocre average given a rather impressive walk rate. Both guys are 20/20 threats and both have multiple eligibilities.

Weaknesses

AVG, vs. RHP, lineup slot. He’s probably a .270ish hitter. Last season his xBA was .272 but that was fueled by a 24.3 percent line drive rate that will surely come down. His .275 BABIP was likely a bit low. Roberts really struggles against right-handed bats in terms of both power and average (when compared to his splits against lefties). Roberts appeared all over the Arizona lineup last season, but the return of Stephen Drew to the leadoff spot and the presence of solid middle-of-the-order bats like Justin Upton, Miguel Montero and Chris Young make Roberts a six through eight hitter right now. If he ends up batting eighth he’ll be protected by the pitcher. That’s not a good thing.

ADP Report (193.6)

I love this ADP. When the team here at Baseball Professor initially ranked our top 200 I had Roberts at 168, higher than anyone else on our staff. The more I evaluate and re-evaluate players, the more that ranking rises, and the more that ranking rises the better this ADP looks. Last season Roberts ranked 106th in just 482 at-bats and this time around he’s their everyday starter at third base. I don’t see Sean Burroughs or Willie Bloomquist stealing those at-bats. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Roberts rank in the top 75 by the end of the season, but there’s risk here if you want to make him your everyday third baseman.

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