Tag Archives | 2B

Player Profile #77: Chase Utley | 2B | PHI

By on February 6, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

It was just two short years ago that Chase Utley hit 31 homers, scored 112 runs, drove in 93 and stole 23 bases on his way to a 12th overall ranking. Now Utley ranks all the way down at 77, a ranking that feels more generous than anything else. Injuries have cost him significant portions of the last two seasons, and his hitting skills have seemingly eroded with time. Last season Utley batted just .259, and his .247 xBA indicates that low average was no fluke. The good news is that Utley has still been stealing bases, so his surgically repaired hip is at least partially healed, but that kind of injury can real drain a hitter’s power (your hips are a major part of the power stroke). Will Utley be able to stay on the field in 2012 and, if he does, can he return to form?

Best case scenario: Dustin Pedroia (BOS)
Similar players: Ben Zobrist (TB), Brandon Phillips (CIN), Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)
Worst case scenario: Neil Walker (PIT)

Strengths

SB, R, RBI. When healthy, Utley is capable of posting elite totals in all five categories, however even though he’s been injured for large parts of the last two seasons, he’s still been able to steal double-digit bases. Batting third for Philadelphia should mean plenty of RBI opportunities (even though he totaled just 109 in 2010 and 2011 combined) and he’s always been a great source of runs (again, when healthy).

Weaknesses

Age, injuries, away, vs. LHP. Utley’s OPS has fallen every year since 2007, though more rapidly in recent seasons. Injuries will be a concern for the rest of his career. As one of the game’s best second basemen during his prime, Utley’s skills seem to be deteriorating. He’s always been able to hit left-handed pitchers well and maintain good home/road splits, however that ended last season as Utley batted just .189 versus lefties and stumbled to a .239 average and .635 OPS on the road. These are two of the first splits you’d expect to see fall off from a stumbling left-handed batter. Note: I didn’t want to list batting average as a weakness as Utley could hit north of .280 once again, but it’ll take a nice season for that to happen.

ADP Report (77.1)

This is right where Utley should go. This ADP is just late enough that you should have enough reliable, elite options on your roster should Utley falter once again, and there’s always the chance Utley becomes a top 50 player again.

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Player Profile #104: Howie Kendrick | 1B/2B/OF | LAA

By on January 30, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

I just got through telling you about how I think Chris Young should be a top-100 player but George, my co-contributor, doesn’t value him as highly. The inverse is true for Howie Kendrick. Who knows which of us is right, but either way they’re definitely two of the most polarizing players in fantasy. Kendrick will give you a good average, some useful stolen base totals and a good amount of runs, but his power output will either make or break his draft value. Can he reproduce the 18 homers he had last year or is it back to the days or 10? We’ll soon find out.

Best case scenario: Brandon Phillips (CIN)
Similar players: Dustin Ackley (SEA), Derek Jeter (NYY), Nick Markakis (BAL)
Worst case scenario: A repeat of his injury-shortened 2009.

Strengths

Balance, streakiness. Kendrick does a little bit of everything. That can be extremely useful in the early-to-mid rounds of the draft as you can get some great values later on by taking one- or two-category specialists. Players like Kendrick allow you to do that. Last season he hit six homers in April, six homers in August and four homers in September. In the other three months he totaled just two. Catch him during a hot streak and you’re golden.

Weaknesses

FB%, streakiness, injuries. Of course, catch him during a cold streak and you’re screwed. Will those trends continue? It’s impossible to know, although there are definitely some players (Brennan Boesch comes to mind) who are consistently inconsistent. Yes, that makes sense. I have a hard time imagining him repeating the 18 homers if he can’t get his fly ball rate up. A HR/FB rate of 16.5 will be hard to reproduce.

ADP Report (104.2)

We nailed this ADP with our pre-draft rankings. That’s a pretty good sign that Kendrick is right at home with this ADP. If you were to average his end-of-season ranks in 2010 and 2011, you’d get an average rank of 107. That’s good enough for me.

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Player Profile #109: Dustin Ackley | 2B | SEA

By on January 29, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

The largest criticism of Dustin Ackley is that he’s a better player for the Mariners than he is for your fantasy team. He lacks elite power or speed, and both Seattle’s lineup and ballpark will have adverse effects on his production. Still, there’s something to be said for the discipline and talent that this kid has. If you’re projected to bat third for a major league team, I don’t care who you play for. And when your leadoff hitter is Ichiro Suzuki I have fewer concerns about the makeup of the rest of the team. Second base is a rather deep position, but Ackley can contribute everywhere and could be in for a pretty solid season.

Best case scenario: Brandon Phillips (CIN)
Similar players: Neil Walker (PIT), Howie Kendrick (LAA) with inverted R/RBI numbers, Nick Markakis (BAL)
Worst case scenario: Gordon Beckham (CHW)

Strengths

Batting slot, Ichiro, plate discipline. Bill James projects Ackley for 82 runs, 14 homers, 62 RBI, 14 steals and a .255 average. Those numbers would have made him the 156th-ranked player last year according to Baseball Professor’s PSR system. I don’t particularly like any of those projected numbers except for the homers and steals. Ackley is batting third behind Ichiro and Franklin Gutierrez. Despite last year’s decline, Ichiro is probably a .300 hitter with 40-steal speed, and Gutierrez, despite a terrible career .308 OBP, does have enough speed to get himself into scoring position. I think Ackley will be around 80 RBI in Seattle’s lineup. With his walk rate and minor league strikeout rate, a .280 average seems like a fair estimate to me.

Weaknesses

Lacks elite HR/SB potential, Mike Carp. This is where Seattle’s lineup hurts him. Carp will be protecting Ackely in the four-hole, and though Carp has had some great triple-A numbers in each of the last two seasons, he’s not a cleanup-caliber hitter. That means pitchers can pitch more cautiously to Ackley without the fear of God following him in the Mariners’ lineup, but Ackley did well against curveballs and change-ups last season. Sliders gave him some trouble.

ADP Report (135.1)

Ackley batted third 71 times last year, batting .270, scoring 30 runs and tallying 28 RBI. Over 155 games, those numbers work out to 65 runs, 61 RBI and, of course, a .270 average. Given some improvement from Ackley and likely a better year from Ichiro, I think we should see a .280 average, 70 runs and 80 RBI, and James’ prediction of 11 homers and 14 steals are fair projections as well. Those numbers would yield a PSR of 3.12, which would have ranked 118th last season. Since I expect Ackley to improve greatly upon his 21.0 percent strikeout rate in his first major league season, I think there’s enough room for growth in all of those areas, particularly in batting average. If Ackley adds just 10 more points to his batting average (.290) and 10 more runs and RBI combined (say, 75 and 85) his rank jumps from 118 to 92. Given his discipline and skills, I think our initial projection is pretty realistic. I like Ackley at 135.

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Player Profile #128: Neil Walker | 2B | PIT

By on January 24, 2012 | Comments { 3 }

Don’t look now, but second base is deep. Even with a disappointing 2011 season that still saw Neil Walker rank as the 119th best player overall, we didn’t elect to rank him inside the top 125. That’s not a knock on Walker, but rather an affirmation of the other talent at the position. Consider that this is the same position where you could draft Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Brandon Phillips, Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley, Howie Kendrick, Jason Kipnis, Danny Espinosa, Kelly Johnson or Dustin Ackley as suitable, or even very good, starting options. Those are 13 potentially starting-quality players. Walker does a little bit of everything, but he’s not particularly good anywhere. He’s average, and at a deep position that hurts your overall rank.

Best case scenario: Chase Utley, but the almost washed up Utley that I think we’ll see (PHI)
Similar players: Kelly Johnson (TOR), Nick Markakis (BAL), Carlos Lee (HOU)
Worst case scenario: Last season’s Walker

Strengths

RBI, Power vs. RHP. Walker spent the majority of last season batting second though fifth in the Pirates lineup, spending most of that time batting fourth. Pittsburgh doesn’t have an exceptionally potent lineup, but Jose Tabata and Alex Presley are capable of getting on base batting first and second, and Andrew McCutchen is a very good hitter batting third. No matter who you are or what lineup you’re in, the cleanup hitter will have plenty of chances to clean up. With a little more power next year, those 83 RBI could jump into the 90s. Walker is a switch hitter who has similar batting averages from both sides of the plate, but thus far in his career he’s demonstrated noticeably more power from the left side of the plate.

Weaknesses

Power vs. LHP. There aren’t a lot of weaknesses for Walker given his balanced skill set and handy lineup slot, but as we said above he does struggled to hit for power against left-handed pitchers. For his career he has just four homers in 279 at-bats versus southpaws.

ADP Report (144.0)

Walker should produce as a top 125 player, and that alone would make him worth this spot, but his value here depends on how quickly second basemen go in your league. Once you get past the Walker/Espinosa/Johnson/Ackley tier the talent drops off considerably, so if you need to reach a little to ensure you have someone capable as your everyday starter, then feel free to do it. Otherwise I’d take Walker if he fell to 144.

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Player Profile #138: Danny Espinosa | 2B | WAS

By on January 20, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Danny Espinosa is only about to enter his 25th year on this sphere we call Earth and he’s already shown us the type of potential he has. In his rookie season, Espinosa smashed 21 homers and added 17 steals. His .178 ISO ranked eighth among second basemen and he had the fourth most combined homers and steals (38). He does come with some flaws like his batting average (.236) and strikeouts (25.2 K%) so there is still room for improvement. He also was very streaky when it came to his power as 13 of his home runs came in two months. Those in head-to-head leagues will want to see a more consistent showing in 2012.

Best case scenario: Ian Kinsler (TEX) without the 100+ runs
Similar players: Ben Zobrist (TB), Rickie Weeks (MIL), Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
Worst case scenario: Jed Lowrie (HOU)

Strengths

Power/speed, vs. lefties. Espinosa’s .178 ISO in his rookie season was impressive, but it was his worst in his career (taking out hi 2010, 24-game stint in Triple-A). You would think his power would develop as he learns to drive the ball better at a MLB level. He also hits much better against lefties, posting a .283/.361/.496 slash (.222/.312/.390 vs. righties).

Weaknesses

Batting average, strikeouts. There are several flaws in Espinosa’s plate approach that he will need to fix to bring up his batting average. His 32.1 O-Swing%, 75.1 Contact% and 11.5 SwStr% are all worse than the league average. They also explain his high strikeout totals.

ADP Report (147.7)

Espinosa is currently the 10th second baseman being taken in drafts and there is quite the gap between him and Howie Kendrick at ninth (34 spots). I think Espinosa’s upside is very good for fantasy, but his batting average is a realy drag on his value. Unless he starts contributing even more in the counting categories he will remain well outside the top 100 until he brings that average up.

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Player Profile #167: Jason Kipnis | 2B | CLE

By on January 11, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

He’s the guy no one talks about, but Jason Kipnis is a potential star in the making. He wasn’t a second overall pick like Dustin Ackley or even a former first-rounder like Gordon Beckham, but when all is said and done, Kipnis — a former second-round pick — could be better than both. He has always shown a nice power/speed combination in the minors and he showed he could sustain it at the Major League level with seven homers and five steals in just 36 games. Of course that’s a ridiculous home run pace and he won’t sustain a 20 percent HR/FB rate (very few do), but he is more than capable of hitting 15-20 home runs over a full season. Don’t overlook this guy.

Best case scenario: Brandon Phillips (CIN)
Similar players: Dustin Ackley (SEA), Howie Kendrick (LAA), Neil Walker (PIT)
Worst case scenario: Gordon Beckham (CHW)

Strengths

Power/speed. While Kipnis won’t hit a home run every five games, he most certainly will get into the double digits. When you couple that power with his ability to steal maybe 15 bases, you have a very solid middle infielder for fantasy.

Weaknesses

Inexperience, lineup. Last season, Kipnis hit six homers in his first 18 games and then just one in his final 18. Clearly there are adjustments to be made, but he’s shown that he could do it before in the minors. Now he just has to prove he can do it in The Show. Unfortunately he doesn’t have much in terms of lineup protection as the Indians are a team that is in “rebuilding mode.”

ADP Report (164.3)

Clearly I am a fan of Kipnis and would probably draft him a little higher, but not much. He’s a good guy to take a chance on at this point of the draft and with Ackley (105.5 ADP) going six rounds earlier in standard leagues, he makes for a great value. Make sure you don’t sleep on this player as the hype has completely avoided him for whatever reason.

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Player Profile #190: Jemile Weeks | 2B | OAK

By on January 4, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

You better not blink because you just might miss him. Jemile, the younger brother of Rickie Weeks, showed us in 2011 exactly what type of value he brings to fantasy — speed. It’s funny because in the minors he had a total of 41 steals in 1018 plate appearances (24.8 PA/SB), but in his rookie season he stole 22 bases in just 437 PA (19.9 PA/SB). He also has the potential to keep hitting for a good batting average as he makes a lot of good contact (88.2 contact%, 23.2 line-drive%) and his speed should help him get on base. What he won’t do is have a very high OBP or supply your lineup with any power.

Best case scenario: Elvis Andrus (TEX)
Similar players: Dee Gordon (LAD), Alexi Casilla (MIN), Alcides Escobar (KC)
Worst case scenario: Chris Getz (KC)

Strengths

Speed, average. He should be a 30-steal, .300 average player for years to come. Would like to see him swing the bat more as his swing percentage was only 43.4 percent.

Weaknesses

Power, OBP, team. Hit a whopping two home runs last year and had a walk percentage of 4.8. Also, there isn’t much going on in the Athletics lineup in terms of driving in runs.

ADP Report (161.6)

He’ll be in his second year so the usual adjustments will have to be made. He’s nothing like his brother, but the 18th round seems about right when you’re talking about a young, upside player who only contributes in a couple of categories.

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