Tag Archives | 1B

Player Profile #50: Paul Konerko | 1B | CHW

By on February 13, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Will age ever catch up with Paul Konerko? The veteran first baseman looked left for dead after down years in 2007, 2008 and 2009, but he’s since found new life with the team he’s been a member of since 1999. Excluding those three down years, Konkero is as consistent as they come. You’ll get a .300 average, around 30 homers and over 100 RBI. Plus, he’s played fewer than 149 games just twice in the last 11 seasons (137 in 2003 and 122 in 2009). He has just nine stolen bases to his credit in his 1,998 games played, but I think we can all live with that trade-off.

Best case scenario: Prince Fielder (DET)
Similar players: Eric Hosmer (KC), Mike Morse (WAS), Adrian Beltre (TEX)
Worst case scenario: Freddie Freeman (ATL)

Strengths

BA, RBI, HR at home. Our xBA equation does tend to underrate the guys with almost no speed, which is likely why we see Konerko consistently outperforming his xBAs over the last three seasons. In reality he’s a guy with a high line drive rate and a relatively low strikeout rate (which was actually really low last season, his lowest since 2003) who will bat right around .300. The 39 homers we saw in 2010 were a bit of a fluke, but U.S. Cellular Field is a good hitter’s park and 30 homers is a nice, safe projection. Konerko is as sure a bet to finish right around .300/30/100 as anyone. Konerko has spent his entire career playing home games at U.S. Cellular Field (aside from 81 games with the Dodgers and Reds to start his career), and in that time he has 237 homers at home to just 159 on the road.

Weaknesses

R, SB. The White Sox were supposed to have a potent lineup last season, but almost everyone not named Konerko vastly underperformed. The result was just 69 runs for the team’s only offensive threat. Until that lineup shows it can live up to its potential, Konerko will remain only a mediocre source of runs. He’ll also max out at one stolen base, but few first basemen actually steal bases. Actually, it’s one of the things that make Joey Votto and Albert Pujols so valuable and should be one of the main reasons Eric Hosmer finishes in the Konerko tier.

ADP Report (48.4)

Konerko’s ADP is 48, last season he ranked 49th and this season we’re ranking him 50th. If that doesn’t scream consistency then I don’t know what does. Considering the lack of depth at first base, which I wrote about just the other day, Konerko becomes even more valuable as one of the last reliable options at the position. He’ll produce numbers on par with this pick, so go ahead and draft him here.

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Player Profile #58: Eric Hosmer | 1B | KC

By on February 11, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

He won’t be your prototypical, power-hitting first baseman, but Eric Hosmer looks poised to be a top player at the position for years to come. He will be hitting in the middle of a Kansas City lineup that scored the 10th most runs in 2011 so his runs and RBI totals should be just fine. The question is whether Hosmer can improve on his home run totals, which will be tough playing in Kauffman Stadium. Hosmer hit just three of his 19 home runs at home last season and that could be an issue for his power potential going forward.

Best case scenario: Joey Votto (CIN) with smaller power numbers
Similar players: Billy Butler (KC), Freddie Freeman (ATL) with more power, Hunter Pence (PHI)
Worst case scenario: Gaby Sanchez (MIA)

Strengths

Batting average, steals. While Hosmer’s xBA was only .275 last year it had a lot to do with his aggressive nature at the plate (36.7 O-Swing%). As he gets older, he will learn to be more selective and if he cuts down on unnecessary swings he should make better contact and keep his batting average north of .290.

Weaknesses

OBP, home stadium. If Hosmer wants to be considered among the elite first basemen he will have to up his .334 OBP from 2011. Like I stated above, I expect Hosmer to only get better in terms of selection at the plate and with that comes more walks and better contact overall.

ADP Report (52.4)

He’s only 22 years old, so for him to be getting drafted this highly already tells you a lot about his potential. I would love to see what Hosmer could do in a homer-neutral park, but a .300 hitter with 80 runs, 23 home runs, 90 RBI and 10 steals is good enough to be worth a sixth round pick and more in keeper leagues.

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Player Profile #65: Michael Young | 1B/2B/3B | TEX

By on February 9, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

To all you Michael Young haters out there, lay off the dude!  We’ve written a lot about the great values you can find targeting low-average hitters with great power/speed combos, but you can’t build a balanced fantasy roster without a couple guys who do the opposite. Young represents the very best of this “opposite” class of players. He’s batted over .300 in seven of the last nine years, and in those other two seasons he checked in at .284. He’s batted over .310 six times, over .320 three times and over .330 two times. Everyone raves about how his .338 average last season was a fluke, but his .320 xBA shows it wasn’t really that high. The guy hit line drives over 26 percent of the time! Will the power come back? I ran the number’s on Young’s home run power and concluded he could still hit 20 homers in Texas, so expect him to improve on the 11 we saw last season. (Note: as you see below, Young has very few good comparisons. If you think he compares better with someone else, leave it in the comments section.)

Best case scenario: Dustin Pedroia (BOS) without the SB
Similar players: Aramis Ramirez (MIL), Adrian Beltre (TEX) with fewer HR, Kevin Youkilis (BOS) but less injury-prone
Worst case scenario: Billy Butler (KC)…fewer HR but more R so it balances out

Strengths

BA, RBI, durability. Young will bat .300. I will flat out guarantee that, and a .300 average batting fourth for the juggernaut Texas Rangers should equal a 95-plus RBI season. Young isn’t the fastest guy out there, but he will score runs hitting in the core of the Rangers lineup, and it’s always easier to rack up the counting stats (particularly runs and RBI) when you’re around 700 plate appearances every season.

Weaknesses

HR on the road. Young doesn’t have a ton of power to begin with, but his power on the road was almost non-existent last season as he hit just one homer away from the Ballpark in Arlington. He’s only topped five homers on the road once in the last five years (2009) and has 100 homers at home for his career versus just 69 on the road.

ADP Report (70.6)

Young ranked 36th last season even though he had just 17 homers and stolen bases combined. I’d expect the average to fall and the homers to rise, and that should result in another underrated season. In 2010 he batted just .284 but hit 21 homers, and it’s likely that his 2012 average and homer total will both fall somewhere between his 2011 and 2010 numbers. That should equal a rank in the 36-70 range as well, making this ADP a good value, especially if you plan on taking one of those low-average guys I wrote about in the intro.

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Player Profile #92: Billy Butler | 1B/DH | KC

By on February 2, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

Billy Butler might more aptly be named Billy Boring, but there’s something to be said for a player who bats .300 with moderate totals in everything else. Considering his ranks the past three seasons, never straying from the 85-92 range, it’s appropriate that we find Butler ranked a number 92 in our rankings. He’s an xBA outlier, likely due to his complete lack of speed since our equation does have a foot-speed component, but Butler is a career .297 hitter in the heart of what should be a good Kansas City lineup.

Best case scenario: Pablo Sandoval (SF)
Similar players: Eric Hosmer (KC), Carlos Lee (HOU), Jhonny Peralta (DET)
Worst case scenario: Gaby Sanchez (MIA)

Strengths

Home. Butler has a better career batting average at home, .314 to .279, which isn’t all that surprising. What is surprising is that in two of the last three seasons his home batting average has been almost 50 points higher or more.

Weaknesses

Position? Butler played and started just 11 games at first base last season. If your league’s eligibility requirements are stricter than this, Butler’s value takes a hit because he can only be started at utility.

ADP Report (122.7)

It’s not exciting to draft Butler, but given how deceptively shallow first base is (again, if he qualifies), this ADP is a steal. If Butler doesn’t qualify at first base in your league, he’s still someone I would take at 123rd overall, and probably a bit higher. You can see from both the chart above and the intro that Butler’s yearly numbers are very stable, so another repeat season seems like a logical conclusion.

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#14: Where does Freddie Freeman rank among first basemen?

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

Here are my top ten first basemen in no particular order: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Michael Morse, Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko, Ryan Howard and Adam Lind.

Where Freddie Freeman belongs is among the next seven with Lance Berkman, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Carlos Lee and Eric Hosmer. In his first full season starting at first base for the Braves, Freeman had a good season batting .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI. Of course, when drafting a first baseman the most important stats are the power numbers, so for his first full season Freeman was fairly average. Not on par with the top guys at the position, but I think he will improve on these numbers for two main reasons.

The first reason is that he will have an MLB season under his belt. One of the biggest obstacles players face after being called up from the minors is being overwhelmed by the big-league game and finding their niche. Freeman struggled right out of the gate but quickly righted the ship and contributed a cool 161 hits and 67 runs in his 571 at-bats in addition to his other numbers. His .795 OPS could’ve been better, and I think it will be in 2012.

The second reason is the Braves’ lineup. In Atlanta, he has Dan Uggla, Michael Bourn, Martin Prado and Brian McCann hitting around him. And, if Jason Heyward finally can stay healthy, there’s another productive hitter in the lineup. Bourn is a table-setter at the top of the lineup and if Uggla and McCann can advance the runners into scoring position then Freeman’s RBI chances will greatly increase. Add in an uptick in homers and Freeman could be a big run producer.

While he doesn’t crack the top 10 in first basemen ranks this year, I would definitely take him over the aging stars Lee and Berkman. Freeman just has more upside and I don’t see Berkman reproducing his 2011 numbers again. Freeman could creep into the top ten by the end of 2012, but I don’t think he’s worth taking ahead of guys like Morse, Davis, Hosmer or Konerko.

Konerko seems to produce regardless of age and Davis had a good early run last season before lost due to injury. Even with Reyes’ departure, Davis’ numbers should improve this year and Morse seems like the real deal with eligibility in the outfield to add to his value. However, if you’re not sold on any of those guys you should take a chance on Freeman in the middle rounds (top 120). He has the upside, which makes it easier to draft him.

Even if you draft one of the elite first basemen, Freeman could be a worthy investment as your backup or utility player. This way if both of your first basemen produce, then you have wonderful trade bait. I made the big mistake of missing out on one of the top guys last year and had to patch things together all season with Davis, Hosmer and waiver-wire fodder (Juan Miranda, Jesus Guzman). I wouldn’t pass up on the elite guys this year, but that doesn’t mean to pass on Freeman either.

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Player Profile #100: Mike Morse | 1B/OF | WAS

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Last March I wrote this about Mike Morse: “Assuming 500 at-bats, which I think is reasonable, we could be looking at a 20-homer, 80-RBI season with a good batting average coming from a widely undrafted player.” Morse ended up getting 522 at-bats, put up a “good” .303 average (and a .288 xBA, which is more what I expected) but crushed my power projections. That season was good enough to rank him 51st overall. We’ll see more of the same in 2012. Maybe he won’t bat over .300 again, but 25 homers and 80 RBI are totals you can take to the bank.

Best case scenario: Paul Konerko (CHW)
Similar players: Lance Berkman (STL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Torii Hunter (LAA)

Strengths

HR, RBI, BA, balance, HR on the road. The homers, RBI and average should all be pretty close to last season, but what I really like about Morse is the balance he showed last season. No matter what split you look at (vs. LHP/RHP, first half/second half, home/road), Morse put almost exactly equal numbers with one exception: power on the road. His home park in Washington is exactly league average for homers to right-handed batters, but Morse hit 20 of his 31 homers away from home. For what it’s worth, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is a good home run park for righties, but Turner Field in Atlanta and Sun Life Stadium in Florida are a little below average, and Citi Field (was) definitely below average. Things will get interesting this season, though as Citi Field brings in its fences and the Marlins move to a new park.

Weaknesses

SB. I don’t see another real weakness in Morse’s game. We expected him to break out, he did and now he’ll probably hit like 2011 all over again. Will he repeat 30 homers and 90 RBI? We’ll see, but like I said in the intro, 25 and 80 are definitely safe bets.

ADP Report (79.9)

Had Morse batted .288 last year instead of .303 (but kept everything else the same), he would have ranked 81st overall instead of 51st. If we adjust his run and RBI totals to account for the hypothetical .288 average, Morse would have scored 70 runs and driven in 86. That 70/.288/31/86/2 line would have ranked him 88th overall. I tell you that just to give you some perspective. In my opinion this ADP is a little high for Morse as the likely drop in batting average will adversely affect most of his other numbers, but if you want to draft him in the 85-100 range that seems OK to me.

 

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Player Profile #102: Ryan Howard | 1B | PHI

By on January 31, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Phillies manager Charlie Manual has pretty much conceded that Ryan Howard will miss the start of the season. Assuming everything goes smoothly with his rehab, a big assumption for a big man recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon, Howard should be ready by sometime in late April or early May. Once he does get back, we’ll likely see the same thing we’ve come to see from Howard in recent seasons: home runs, RBIs and strikeouts.

Best case scenario: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Similar players: Adam Lind (TOR), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Nick Swisher (NYY)
Worst case scenario: Injury costs him more time than we expect

Strengths

Power, ballpark, second half. Howard’s home/road splits for his career aren’t very pronounced, so one would seem to think his home ballpark doesn’t represent a huge advantage. That may be true, but Citizen Bank Park’s home run park factor for left-handed batters is 120. I consider that a strength. Howard has driven in over 100 runs in every full season he’s played, though it appears his days of 40 homers and 140 RBI (or nearly an RBI per game) are behind him. Still, he’s one of the game’s elite power bats. And, for whatever reason, Howard thrives as the season wears on. For his career he’s a .290 hitter in the second half and averages a homer every 12 at-bats. His career first-half average is just .262 and he averages a homer almost every 15 at-bats. His September numbers (career .306 and a homer every 11.5 at-bats) are even better.

Weaknesses

Durability, average. Batting average will always be a concern, but now we can add durability, and subsequently playing time, into the mix. Between Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr., the Phillies have plenty of big-time bats. Mayberry will start the season at first base while Howard heals, and if he plays well he could provide a good option for the team to keep Howard fresh as the season wears on.

ADP Report (144.1)

Let’s take Howard’s numbers from last season and project them over a shortened, 120-game season, a likely total for Howard this year: 62 runs, .253 average, 26 homers, 92 RBI and one stolen base for good measure. That line would work out to a PSR of 1.93, which would have ranked 156th overall last season. By that logic this ADP is about right, but we at Baseball Professor are head-to-head players first and in head-to-head leagues, Howard’s missed games in April/May and his late-season production make him a great sleeper candidate for championship teams in September.

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