Baseball Professor » 1B

Player Profile #92: Billy Butler | 1B/DH | KC

Bryan Curley — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 14:00:04 +0000

Billy Butler might more aptly be named Billy Boring, but there’s something to be said for a player who bats .300 with moderate totals in everything else. Considering his ranks the past three seasons, never straying from the 85-92 range, it’s appropriate that we find Butler ranked a number 92 in our rankings. He’s an xBA outlier, likely due to his complete lack of speed since our equation does have a foot-speed component, but Butler is a career .297 hitter in the heart of what should be a good Kansas City lineup.

Best case scenario: Pablo Sandoval (SF)
Similar players: Eric Hosmer (KC), Carlos Lee (HOU), Jhonny Peralta (DET)
Worst case scenario: Gaby Sanchez (MIA)

Strengths

Home. Butler has a better career batting average at home, .314 to .279, which isn’t all that surprising. What is surprising is that in two of the last three seasons his home batting average has been almost 50 points higher or more.

Weaknesses

Position? Butler played and started just 11 games at first base last season. If your league’s eligibility requirements are stricter than this, Butler’s value takes a hit because he can only be started at utility.

ADP Report (122.7)

It’s not exciting to draft Butler, but given how deceptively shallow first base is (again, if he qualifies), this ADP is a steal. If Butler doesn’t qualify at first base in your league, he’s still someone I would take at 123rd overall, and probably a bit higher. You can see from both the chart above and the intro that Butler’s yearly numbers are very stable, so another repeat season seems like a logical conclusion.

#14: Where does Freddie Freeman rank among first basemen?

Matt Serocki — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 19:00:19 +0000

Here are my top ten first basemen in no particular order: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Michael Morse, Mark Teixeira, Paul Konerko, Ryan Howard and Adam Lind.

Where Freddie Freeman belongs is among the next seven with Lance Berkman, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Carlos Lee and Eric Hosmer. In his first full season starting at first base for the Braves, Freeman had a good season batting .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI. Of course, when drafting a first baseman the most important stats are the power numbers, so for his first full season Freeman was fairly average. Not on par with the top guys at the position, but I think he will improve on these numbers for two main reasons.

The first reason is that he will have an MLB season under his belt. One of the biggest obstacles players face after being called up from the minors is being overwhelmed by the big-league game and finding their niche. Freeman struggled right out of the gate but quickly righted the ship and contributed a cool 161 hits and 67 runs in his 571 at-bats in addition to his other numbers. His .795 OPS could’ve been better, and I think it will be in 2012.

The second reason is the Braves’ lineup. In Atlanta, he has Dan Uggla, Michael Bourn, Martin Prado and Brian McCann hitting around him. And, if Jason Heyward finally can stay healthy, there’s another productive hitter in the lineup. Bourn is a table-setter at the top of the lineup and if Uggla and McCann can advance the runners into scoring position then Freeman’s RBI chances will greatly increase. Add in an uptick in homers and Freeman could be a big run producer.

While he doesn’t crack the top 10 in first basemen ranks this year, I would definitely take him over the aging stars Lee and Berkman. Freeman just has more upside and I don’t see Berkman reproducing his 2011 numbers again. Freeman could creep into the top ten by the end of 2012, but I don’t think he’s worth taking ahead of guys like Morse, Davis, Hosmer or Konerko.

Konerko seems to produce regardless of age and Davis had a good early run last season before lost due to injury. Even with Reyes’ departure, Davis’ numbers should improve this year and Morse seems like the real deal with eligibility in the outfield to add to his value. However, if you’re not sold on any of those guys you should take a chance on Freeman in the middle rounds (top 120). He has the upside, which makes it easier to draft him.

Even if you draft one of the elite first basemen, Freeman could be a worthy investment as your backup or utility player. This way if both of your first basemen produce, then you have wonderful trade bait. I made the big mistake of missing out on one of the top guys last year and had to patch things together all season with Davis, Hosmer and waiver-wire fodder (Juan Miranda, Jesus Guzman). I wouldn’t pass up on the elite guys this year, but that doesn’t mean to pass on Freeman either.

Player Profile #100: Mike Morse | 1B/OF | WAS

Bryan Curley — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 14:00:32 +0000

Last March I wrote this about Mike Morse: “Assuming 500 at-bats, which I think is reasonable, we could be looking at a 20-homer, 80-RBI season with a good batting average coming from a widely undrafted player.” Morse ended up getting 522 at-bats, put up a “good” .303 average (and a .288 xBA, which is more what I expected) but crushed my power projections. That season was good enough to rank him 51st overall. We’ll see more of the same in 2012. Maybe he won’t bat over .300 again, but 25 homers and 80 RBI are totals you can take to the bank.

Best case scenario: Paul Konerko (CHW)
Similar players: Lance Berkman (STL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Torii Hunter (LAA)

Strengths

HR, RBI, BA, balance, HR on the road. The homers, RBI and average should all be pretty close to last season, but what I really like about Morse is the balance he showed last season. No matter what split you look at (vs. LHP/RHP, first half/second half, home/road), Morse put almost exactly equal numbers with one exception: power on the road. His home park in Washington is exactly league average for homers to right-handed batters, but Morse hit 20 of his 31 homers away from home. For what it’s worth, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is a good home run park for righties, but Turner Field in Atlanta and Sun Life Stadium in Florida are a little below average, and Citi Field (was) definitely below average. Things will get interesting this season, though as Citi Field brings in its fences and the Marlins move to a new park.

Weaknesses

SB. I don’t see another real weakness in Morse’s game. We expected him to break out, he did and now he’ll probably hit like 2011 all over again. Will he repeat 30 homers and 90 RBI? We’ll see, but like I said in the intro, 25 and 80 are definitely safe bets.

ADP Report (79.9)

Had Morse batted .288 last year instead of .303 (but kept everything else the same), he would have ranked 81st overall instead of 51st. If we adjust his run and RBI totals to account for the hypothetical .288 average, Morse would have scored 70 runs and driven in 86. That 70/.288/31/86/2 line would have ranked him 88th overall. I tell you that just to give you some perspective. In my opinion this ADP is a little high for Morse as the likely drop in batting average will adversely affect most of his other numbers, but if you want to draft him in the 85-100 range that seems OK to me.

Player Profile #102: Ryan Howard | 1B | PHI

Bryan Curley — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 11:00:33 +0000

Phillies manager Charlie Manual has pretty much conceded that Ryan Howard will miss the start of the season. Assuming everything goes smoothly with his rehab, a big assumption for a big man recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon, Howard should be ready by sometime in late April or early May. Once he does get back, we’ll likely see the same thing we’ve come to see from Howard in recent seasons: home runs, RBIs and strikeouts.

Best case scenario: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Similar players: Adam Lind (TOR), Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Nick Swisher (NYY)
Worst case scenario: Injury costs him more time than we expect

Strengths

Power, ballpark, second half. Howard’s home/road splits for his career aren’t very pronounced, so one would seem to think his home ballpark doesn’t represent a huge advantage. That may be true, but Citizen Bank Park’s home run park factor for left-handed batters is 120. I consider that a strength. Howard has driven in over 100 runs in every full season he’s played, though it appears his days of 40 homers and 140 RBI (or nearly an RBI per game) are behind him. Still, he’s one of the game’s elite power bats. And, for whatever reason, Howard thrives as the season wears on. For his career he’s a .290 hitter in the second half and averages a homer every 12 at-bats. His career first-half average is just .262 and he averages a homer almost every 15 at-bats. His September numbers (career .306 and a homer every 11.5 at-bats) are even better.

Weaknesses

Durability, average. Batting average will always be a concern, but now we can add durability, and subsequently playing time, into the mix. Between Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr., the Phillies have plenty of big-time bats. Mayberry will start the season at first base while Howard heals, and if he plays well he could provide a good option for the team to keep Howard fresh as the season wears on.

ADP Report (144.1)

Let’s take Howard’s numbers from last season and project them over a shortened, 120-game season, a likely total for Howard this year: 62 runs, .253 average, 26 homers, 92 RBI and one stolen base for good measure. That line would work out to a PSR of 1.93, which would have ranked 156th overall last season. By that logic this ADP is about right, but we at Baseball Professor are head-to-head players first and in head-to-head leagues, Howard’s missed games in April/May and his late-season production make him a great sleeper candidate for championship teams in September.

Player Profile #112: Adam Lind | 1B | TOR

George Fitopoulos — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 15:35:45 +0000

Maybe I’m just a sucker, but I can’t get Adam Lind‘s 2009 season out of my head. Was it a fluke or will he one day get back to that level? Right now it looks like 2009 is the outlier, which isn’t good news for those who have invested in him in keeper leagues. Since 2009, his plate discipline has deteriorated to the point where he hasn’t posted an OBP higher than .295 or batting average higher than .251. He’s only 28 so there is still some hope that he returns to a 2009 level, but it will be (1) unpredictable and (2) unsustainable, which makes Lind a tough guy to believe in for any season.

Best case scenario: Another 2009 season
Similar players: Mark Trumbo (LAA), Paul Goldschmidt (ARI), David Ortiz (BOS)
Worst case scenario: Carlos Pena (TB)

Strengths

Power, line drive percentage. While his peak power was in 2009 (.257 ISO) he hasn’t been bad since, posting a .188 ISO in both 2010 and 2011. He also has a knack for hitting line drives (20.2 LD% over last 3 years), which helps him keep his average as high as it is. Yes, I just said that and you should be worried.

Weaknesses

OBP, vs. lefties, steals. Let’s get this out of the way, Lind is not going to contribute in steals and his struggles against left-handed pitching has been with him his entire career. His OBP has been a wreck since he posted a nice .370 in 2009 and it’s because he swings at far too many pitches outside the strike zone. His O-Swing% in 2011 was 37.1 compared to 24.7 percent in 2009. That stat right there makes me worry the most that Lind may never get back to 2009 again.

ADP Report (149.2)

I certainly understand why the public is waiting so long to draft Lind and it’s because he is looking more and more like Carlos Pena than Paul Konerko. He also loses his outfield eligibility this season because he played primarily at first base and DH in 2011. As Lind’s career year falls further out of memory he will continue to fall in drafts and rightfully so. Of course, he could revert back to 2009 and prove us all wrong again, but I’m not holding my breath.

Player Profile #114: Freddie Freeman | 1B | ATL

George Fitopoulos — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 14:10:57 +0000

Freddie Freeman did not have a friendly start to the 2011 season, but it ended with quite a bang. Over his final 114 games (4+ months), Freeman hit 17 home runs with a .300/.356/.479 line, but because of his poor start his overall numbers weren’t as good as they could’ve been. While Freeman lacks the power upside of a top tier first baseman he could develop better power as the years go on, but 2012 expectations should be tempered. It’s not a good sign that his strikeouts rose in his first year outside the minors, but you would expect that to improve as he continues to improve his approach at the plate.

Best case scenario: Carlos Santana (CLE)
Similar players: Carlos Lee (HOU), Eric Hosmer (KC), Adam Lind (TOR)
Worst case scenario: James Loney (LAD)

Strengths

Vs. righties. Freeman has it down pat against right-handed pitchers with a .299 batting average, .171 ISO and 9.3 walk percentage. That’s compared to a .275 batting average, .156 ISO and 6.4 walk percentage against left-handers.

Weaknesses

Vs. lefties, plate discipline. We covered Freeman’s troubles against lefties, but it also doesn’t help that the NL East has two of the better left-handed starters in Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Also, Freeman did post a nice walk rate in his rookie season (8.3%), but his 36.8 O-Swing% and 11.5 SwStr% were both well above league average.

ADP Report (121.4)

It seems like there’s a lot of belief that Freeman will fix his plate approach to have a more consistent and successful season in 2012. If he can cut down on his swings on pitches outside the strike zone he should be able to make more contact and, in effect, cut down on his strikeouts. I think Freeman is a lock for .270/20/80 with the upside of .300/25/90 for 2012.

Player Profile #148: Paul Goldschmidt | 1B/OF | ARI

George Fitopoulos — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 18:07:20 +0000

With Paul Goldschmidt you know exactly what you’re getting: home runs, home runs and some more home runs. Before being called up, Goldschmidt slugged 83 homers with a .303 ISO in 315 minor league games, and then he hit eight home runs with a .224 ISO in 177 major league plate appearances. It’s clear that he can hit the long ball, but he’ll need to cut down on the strikeouts (29.9 K%) if he ever wants to improve on his .250 batting average. He will have to “battle” Lyle Overbay, but that shouldn’t be much of a battle as Goldschmidt should see the majority of the first base at-bats for the Diamondbacks.

Best case scenario: Ryan Howard (PHI)
Similar players: Mark Trumbo (LAA), Ike Davis (NYM), Carlos Lee (HOU)
Worst case scenario: Carlos Pena (FA)

Strengths

Power, OBP, home park. Goldschmidt posted a very solid 11.3 BB% in limited major league action last year and a 17.9 BB% in 103 minor league games. Unlike Mark Trumbo, who has plenty of power but no plate discipline, Goldschmidt does it all. He also plays in a hitter-friendly park where he had a .284 ISO (.171 on the road).

Weaknesses

Strikeouts, inexperience. Goldschmidt doesn’t swing his bat a lot (41.4 Swing%), but when he does, he doesn’t make a lot of contact (70.7 Contact%, 11.3 SwStrk%). Also, with only 48 games under his belt, there are still a lot of adjustments to be made in Goldschmidt’s game for him to maintain success in MLB.

ADP Report (142.8)

There’s a lot to be excited about when it comes to Goldschmidt, but it’s also important to temper expectations because he does have just 48 games of MLB experience. I think 143rd overall is right where he belongs because he will probably bring you similar production to Carlos Pena, but since he’s still a prospect there’s added value.

Player Profile #149: Mark Trumbo | 1B/OF | LAA

George Fitopoulos — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 18:03:01 +0000

If your league didn’t score for OBP then Mark Trumbo was the eighth-best first baseman in fantasy. However, if OBP is one of your scoring categories then his .294 mark was most certainly an eye sore. He showed big-time power (29 HR and .223 ISO), and with a revamped lineup he should show better in BA, R and RBI. The question is can you expect more walks? Well, his current 4.4 BB% is very unimpressive, but his minor league track record suggests he could probably bump it up toward six percent. Woo.

Best case scenario: Nelson Cruz (TEX)
Similar players: Carlos Pena (FA), Michael Morse (WAS), Adam Lind (TOR)
Worst case scenario: Loses at-bats to Kendrys Morales

Strengths

Power/speed. In addition to Trumbo’s 29 home runs, he also stole nine bases, which was second most among all first basemen in 2011. He’s never been a big base stealer, but if he can contribute around 5-10 steals per season that would be a nice boost to his value.

Weaknesses

OBP, crowded roster. If Kendrys Morales finally gets healthy, then Trumbo will be pushed to third base and outfield duties. Because the Angels’ outfield is already so crowded with high-priced veterans and up-and-coming stars, Trumbo will have to make it work in the hot corner in order to keep a steady stream of at-bats. Or Morales could make it easy and just miss another season.

ADP Report (145.0)

You don’t normally find a potential 30-homer guy in the 15th round, but because Trumbo has so much trouble getting on base his value will slip a bit. It remains to be seen exactly what his role will be because of Morales’ pending health, but you can expect Trumbo to be eligible at multiple positions (1B, 3B, OF), which just adds to his value.

Player Profile #162: Carlos Lee | 1B/OF | HOU

Bryan Curley — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 17:00:12 +0000

Usually with these intros we like to write about 100 words that sum up who the player is and what kind of production he can bring to your fantasy roster. For Carlos Lee, that intro is better illustrated in chart form.

The stats are a little out of order, but I did that to show a point. Lee has been on the steady decline for a while now and his chance of hitting any of the above benchmarks is slim, but that doesn’t mean he’s completely useless. He has his strengths an weaknesses and, if you’ve been following along, you know we’ll get into those below.

Best case scenario: Billy Butler (KC)
Similar players: Torii Hunter (LAA), Gaby Sanchez (MIA), Miguel Montero (ARI)
Worst case scenario: Hideki Matsui (FA)

Strengths

RBI, vs. LHP. Lee bats fourth for the Astros. I mean, yeah, it’s the Astros, but he’s still batting fourth. Last season that was good enough for 94 RBI, and the year before he drove in 89. He’s also batted over .300 against left-handed pitching in five of the last six seasons including a .348 average last season. His power is also noticeably better against lefties.

Weaknesses

R, lineup. Admittedly, these two are connected. He hasn’t topped 67 runs scored in any of the last four seasons and the guys batting before and after him in the lineup will likely be J.D. Martinez and Brett Wallace, respectively.

ADP Report (177.0)

It’s tough not to like this ADP. According to our early mock draft reports, Lee getting drafted as the 43rd outfielder right now, making him a low-end fourth outfielder in most leagues. If you’re getting .275/18/90 from your fourth outfielder, you’re doing pretty well. I wouldn’t reach much higher than this for Lee since his upside is incredibly limited, but he’s capable of proving RBI without completely detracting everywhere else.

Player Profile #166: Brandon Belt | 1B/OF | SF

Bryan Curley — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:00:38 +0000

Brandon Belt gets hyped a lot for a player with almost no experience. Then again, it’s hard not to get excited about a player who’s batted .343 with 31 homers, 148 RBI and 27 steals in just 189 minor league games. He’s even walked almost as much as he’s struck out (140 BB to 147 K). Things didn’t quite pan out for Belt last season as he batted just .225 in 62 games (thanks to a 27.3 percent K rate) but he did crush nine home runs and finish with a solid .187 ISO. I’d expect all of those numbers to go way up in 2012 as the Giants new-look outfield looks to add some offense to a run-starved lineup.

Best case scenario: Hunter Pence (PHI)
Similar players: Alex Gordon (KC), Jason Heyward (ATL), Corey Hart (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Garrett Jones (PIT)

Strengths

vs. LHP, plate discipline, power. Belt, a left-handed batter, actually hit .348 in 46 at-bats versus left-handed pitchers last season. It’s a small sample size, but it’s a good sign going forward. I mentioned Belt’s walks above. Plate discipline like that always eases the transition between the minors and majors. He’s a big kid and he’s got a big time bat. A 30-homer season isn’t out of the question.

Weaknesses

Ballpark, Nate Schierholtz. AT&T Park is a tough home run park for left-handed batters (82 park factor according to Statcorner.com). Last season Belt hit just two of his nine home runs at home in almost the same amount of playing time split between the two. Schierholtz was actually very good last season batting .278 with nine homers, seven steals, 42 runs and 41 RBI in just 335 at-bats. Like Belt, he’s left-handed but, but unlike Belt he crushed right-handed pitching last season. If Belt gets off to a slow start, Schierholtz could be a problem.

ADP Report (190.3)

Go big or go home. Belt could end the year approaching .300/30/100 if everything breaks right, but he could also end the year at .240/15/60 if things don’t go quite as well. When picks like this pan out you increase your chances of winning your league by a lot. When they don’t pan out it only hurts you minimally because serviceable replacements are always available in all but the deepest of leagues.