On Deck Circle – Top 75 Batters, Week 6

By on May 11, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

“Say whaaaaaat?!”

It’s a common phrase we use when something is said that really surprises us. It’s something so surprising you do not believe it at first and as the messenger to repeat the message so you can make sure you heard correctly.

Like most things in life, this saying can be applied to fantasy baseball.

April is especially a “say what?!” month because with just one month’s worth of data, numbers tend to be very skewed so here are my “say what?!” player of the 2010 season so far:

My 2010 “Say Whaaaaat?!” Team

C –  Jason Varitek – 39 PA/5 HR/.800 SLG
1B – Paul Konerko – Leads MLB with 13 home runs
2B – Kelly Johnson/Ty Wigginton – Lead all second basemen with 10 home runs
3B – Casey McGehee – Second among 3B in RBI (28)
SS – Alex Gonzalez – Leads all shortstops in HR (10), RBI (27) and SLG (.594)
OF – Andruw Jones – Nine home runs and six steals in 107 plate appearances
OF – Juan Pierre – Leads MLB with 15 steals…and has a .292 OBP
OF – Austin Jackson – Has a .371 BA and…and a .511 BABIP…Just sayin’

Surging

Juan Pierre, OF, Chicago White Sox

I mentioned Juan Pierre in my “say what?!” team above, but it was more because I could not believe that he led the league in steals despite posting an on-base percentage that is 50 points lower than his career average. Over the last week, Pierre has batted .313 and has a .353 OBP that has led to five steals. If he can continue to get on base at a decent rate, it is not crazy to think he can approach 60-70 steals this year.

Vladimir Guerrero, DH, Texas Rangers

It will be interesting to see how Vladimir Guerrero will respond to the hot summer days in Texas, but for now he seems like he’s back to his old self. He has batted .360 over his last seven games and hit four home runs and led the league with 13 RBI. The Rangers’ lineup is no joke and he should continue to get plenty of RBI opportunities batting in the cleanup spot.

Victor Martinez, C/1B, Boston Red Sox

Victor Martinez had a horrendous April, in which he batted .238 with one home run and five RBI. However, so far in May he has two home runs and nine RBI in just nine games. The entire Red Sox offense is starting to come around and Martinez will love to have the speedy Jacoby Ellsbury back in the leadoff role in the next week or two.

Falling

Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

Yikes! May has not been kind to Carlos Pena as he has come to the plate 34 times and walked back to the dugout empty handed 31 times. Out of those 31 failed at-bats, 13 were of the strikeout variety, which is downright embarrassing. By this time, you should know what Pena is and what he isn’t so a slump like this is not out of the norm. He will kill your batting average, but should provide you with 35-40 home runs so there is some value in that.

Chone Figgins, 2B/3B, Seattle Mariners

What has happened to Chone Figgins? I’ve been holding on to hope that he will turn around his season, but he is currently sitting on a .185 batting average and while he is walking more this year (17.5 BB%), his strikeouts are much higher as well (27.8 K%). He is affected by a very low .247 BABIP, especially for a speedster and his .194 BABIP on grounders is 70 points lower than his career average. All is not lost for Figgins, but he needs to get it going fast.

Hunter Pence, OF, Houston Astros

Through my traveling as a freelance writer, I actually had the opportunity to talk to Hunter Pence at a Reebok event in January and I asked him if he had big things in store for us fantasy owners in 2010. Naturally, as a Pence owner myself in 2009, I was left both excited and disappointed at the end of the season, but it has become clear to me that when Pence told me he wouldn’t disappoint this season he was lying right to my face. Well, Mr. Pence, not only have you discouraged me from asking other baseball players fantasy-related questions in the future, but you are hereby shunned from my fantasy teams FO-RE-VER. Yes, I displayed absolutely no stats in this paragraph so here is a link to his Yahoo! player page.

Pickup of the Week

Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City Royals

Mike Aviles was everyone’s favorite sleeper middle infielder for the 2009 season. Thirty-six games and a .183 batting average later, Aviles was a huge bust. He was recently called up from Triple-A when Alex Gordon was demoted and in eight games Aviles has batted .417 with two home runs and five runs. He is definitely worth a look because he plays a very shallow position that is full of underachieving players such as Alexei Ramirez, Yunel Escobar and Asdrubal Cabrera.

On the Mend

Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers

Cruz was placed on the DL on April 27 with a hamstring cramp and the rest has appeared to work wonders. He is scheduled to start a rehab assignment today and if all goes well he should be back in the major leagues by Thursday or Friday. Hamstring injuries are always unpredictable but it seems like Cruz owners should prepare to activate the slugger very soon.

Down on the Farm

Brett Wallace, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

How does Brett Wallace sleep at night? He has nine home runs in 31 games down at Triple-A to go along with a triple slash line of .294/.361/.597. Then he looks up at the current Blue Jays lineup and sees Lyle Overbay starting at first base and he is slugging .301 in 32 games. Yes, you read that right. Overbay’s slugging percentage is almost the same as Wallace’s batting average. It is only a matter of time before Wallace gets the call to the big leagues and once he is up he will show that he has the ability to get on base and hit for decent power.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

2010′s “Why Didn’t I Add Him When I Could Have Had Him for Free” Player of the Year

By on May 11, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

There are plenty of players you’ll wish you had by the end of the season. Right about now I’m wishing I got Andre Ethier in a preseason trade instead of Curtis Granderson, but acquiring a player like that cost me a good deal in return – namely Derek Jeter.

I’m also ready to add Starlin Castro in my keeper league, but he’s going to cost me my high waiver priority. The same goes for studs like Stephen Strasburg and Jason Heyward who you probably had to burn a pretty high draft pick on to get.

Derek Holland is free.

After a terrible 2009 season and an injury during Spring Training this year, Holland is easily acquirable and available in 97 percent of leagues. In fact, listen to some of the other guys who he’s buried in free agency with: Reid Brignac, Francisco Cervelli, Vicente Padilla, Jim Edmonds, Matt LaPorta, Nate Robertson, Ronny Cedeno, Jeremy Hermida, Tim Wakefield, Ken Griffey Jr, Ryan Hanigan, Dontrelle Willis, Elijah Dukes, and Aaron Cook.

Those players, all three percent owned, are useless drains on your fantasy team, temporary adds on a Monday day game after a Sunday night game at best. But Holland is still mixed in with them. Best of all, he’ll only cost you your worst player…someone like David DeJesus.

Why do I love Holland so much? Let me count thy ways.

  • He was rated the 31st best prospect in the minors pre-2009 by Baseball America.
  • He has walked just 2.5 batters per nine innings in his minor league career.
  • He has 138.1 innings of Major League experience.
  • He rebounded from those disastrous 138.1 innings and a pre-season demotion to the tune of a 0.93 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 38.2 innings in Triple-A this season, walking just seven batters while striking out 37.
  • His terrible 2009, while bad, wasn’t as bad as you might think. He was the victim of a .321 BABIP with a FIP of 5.10 (compared to his 6.12 ERA).
  • According to Fangraphs.com, his HR/FB rate (15.2%) was the third worst out of 123 starters with at least 100 innings pitched.

Like I say repeatedly, you can have pitchers like Cook and Padilla who will give you a solid start here and there before you drop them for the next “hot” arm, but I’ll take the risk on the high-ceiling prospect who could end up producing like a top-30 starter.

With last season’s experience, this season’s success and a little more luck, Holland could turn out to be your best add of 2010.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

May 10: Kerry Wood to Close Again, Jason Heyward Hopes for Tuesday Return, and Ross Ohlendorf Back with Bucs

By on May 10, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Anyone see Dallas Braden‘s perfect game coming? Probably not. How about today’s Fantasy Headlines? I hope so! Here they are for Monday, May 10:

  • Chipper Jones hopes to return to the lineup today after missing yesterday’s game with a sore groin.
  • Another injured Brave – Jason Heyward – thinks he’ll be ready to go full-time again on Tuesday.
  • Kerry Wood will b Cleveland’s closer again starting on Tuesday.
  • Rockies’ outfielder Carlos Gonzalez will miss Monday’s game and return Tuesday as he returns to Venezuela to attend a funeral.
  • Torii Hunter is expected to go today after struggling to run yesterday with a bruise above his knee.
  • Minnesota second baseman Orlando Hudson missed Sunday’s game with a sore shoulder but shouldn’t miss another game.
  • New York’s Wild Thing Oliver Perez is soon to be in jeopardy of losing his rotation spot if his command doesn’t improve.
  • Ross Ohlendorf returns for the Bucs today after missing a month due to back spasms.
  • Matt Holliday has missed the last two games with a sore groin, but manager Tony LaRussa said it was precautionary as weather conditions made the outfield slick and more conducive to re-injury.
  • The Rangers Nelson Cruz is set to start rehab and be back when he’s first eligible on Thursday.
Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Bullpen Coach – RP Top 50, Week 5

By on May 7, 2010 | Comments { 1 }

Fantasy owners got some good news on Friday. Cleveland Indians closer Kerry Wood has been activated from the 15-day disabled list.

Prior to the activation Wood made two polar opposite appearances for Double-A Akron. In the first game, Wood let up six runs in two-thirds of an inning. However, in his second and final appearance he pitched a scoreless inning.

More importantly, Wood said he feels fine.  Look for him to regain the closers job almost immediately from Chris Perez who did not impress as Wood’s replacement.

In other injury related news, Brad Lidge appears poised to regain the closers role. After a poor first appearance after being activated from the DL, Lidge has thrown two consecutive scoreless innings. Lidge also claims that he is fully healthy and that he feels his slider is better this year. Look for him to get the next save opportunity with Jose Contreras sliding over to the set-up role.

Surging

Matt Capps, Washington Nationals

We’re more than a month into the season and Capps is still leading the league with 11 saves. He has yet to blow a save and his ERA of 1.10 is less that half of his weight. Capps is also sporting the highest K rate of his career. However, he is also posting the highest walk rate of his career. If you could sell Capps as a top 10 closer I would certainly pull the trigger. Yes Washington is winning games but Tyler Clippard is pitching even better behind Capps. Also the Nationals second first round pick from last year, closer Drew Storen, looms in the minors and should be up not too long after Stephen Strasburg.

Kevin Gregg, Toronto Blue Jays

Like Capps, Gregg has yet to blow a save. He has eight on the season and his ERA and WHIP are both under one. He’s also enjoying a K/9 of 11.57, easily the highest of his career. But much like Capps, Gregg is an obvious sell high candidate. He always does well in the closer role initially, i.e. in Florida and in Chicago, but ends up losing the job. Not surprisingly, Gregg has a lower career ERA in April and May than in any other months. Add in the fact that Toronto has two other relief pitchers with closing experience (Jason Frasor and Scott Downs) and I don’t expect Gregg to continue surging.

Alfredo Simon, Baltimore Orioles

What to make of Alfredo Simon. Baltimore’s current closer is three for three in save opportunities and has yet to allow a run on the season. However, he’s only pitched five innings and has already walked four batters. I have Simon in this space because he is currently saving games but I don’t expect him to hang onto this role for long. He once saved 19 games in the minors, but his ERA that year was 5.03. Having been in the minors for parts of nine seasons, Simon’s career minor league ERA is 4.44. With Michael Gonzalez roughly three to four weeks away from returning and Koji Uehara back from injury and a threat to close, Simon has a very short leash.

Falling

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers

Hoffman has as many blown saves, four, as he has saves. His ERA of 11.70 is even higher than his age. If not for being one of the best closers of all-time, Hoffman probably would have lost his job already. But luckily for him, manager Ken Macha appreciates the veterans on his team, i.e. playing Craig Counsell over Alcides Escobar. Milwaukee does have other closing options in Carlos Villanueva and Todd Coffey but Hoffman is more likely to go on DL than be supplanted as closer. Hoffman is still going to accumulate saves for your team, but at what cost?

Octavio Dotel, Pittsburgh Pirates

Dotel’s ERA and WHIP stand at 8.74 and 1.85 and opposing batters are hitting .313 against him. If you somehow felt comfortable with Dotel as your closer at the beginning of the season, there is no way you can have that same feeling now. With another rough outing, Dotel could be in danger of losing his job. The guy I would grab now is Evan Meek. Meek recorded a save on April 29th and his ERA now sits at 0.53 with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies

After losing the temporary closing job, Morales falls out of my top 50 rankings. Manager Jim Tracy recently confirmed that Morales will be replaced by Manuel Corpas as the Rockies’ fill-in closer until Huston Street returns. Morales did more harm than good so now you don’t have to feel bad about cutting him. Keep an eye on him in the future however, as his value will likely reside as a starting pitcher. Remember, he was once a top prospect of the Rockies.

On the Mend

Huston Street, Colorado Rockies

Street is expected to pitch in an extending spring camp game on May 7th. According to Jim Tracy, Street would then be sent on a Minor League assignment if he does not have a setback. Expect him to be activated in mid to late-May.

Michael Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles

Gonzalez is steadily rehabbing and just recently began throwing from 60 feet on flat ground. As of right now, surgery is not needed for Gonzalez and he aims to be back by early June.

Read full story · Comments { 1 }

May 7: Rafael Furcal Could Be Back by Late Next Week, Brandon Wood Makes Subtle Change, and Someone in AAA Throws a No-No…But Not Who You’d Expect

By on May 7, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Red Sox-Yankees resume their rivalry tonight fresh off a Boston sweep of the Angels. Before we get to the games, let’s see the Fantasy Headlines for Friday, May 7:

  • Braves phenom Jason Heyward didn’t get the start last night after leaving Wednesday’s game early, but he had a pinch-hit single in the eighth to tie the game.
  • Paul Konerko missed Thursday’s game with a sore neck, but manager Ozzie Guillen expects him to start tonight’s game.
  • According to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, “there is no telling yet if [Aroldis] Chapman will be with [the Reds]” during a June 4-6 series with the Nationals and, likely, Stephen Strasburg.
  • Remember Andrew Miller? The Marlins’ former prospect threw a no-hitter at Triple-A.
  • For those of you in keeper leagues, Carlos Lee is considering retirement after 2012.
  • Continuous failure Brandon Wood made a subtle change to his stance before Thursday’s game against John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox. Wood widened his stance about four or five inches to improve his balance and promptly homered. Stay tuned.
  • Rafael Furcal could return by late next week.
  • Carlos Gomez remains out of the Brewers lineup and is set to get an MRI in Phoenix on his sore shoulder today.
  • Andy Pettitte is day-to-day with elbow inflammation.
  • Pittsburgh’s Ross Ohlendorf might get the start against Cincinnati on Monday, but no official word if he’s feeling ready yet.
  • Giants shortstop Edgar Renteria returned Thursday after missing four games with a strained groin and promptly strained it again. A DL trip seems likely.
  • Milton Bradley is a troubled man. The Mariners have placed the outfielder on the restricted list as he seeks counseling. In his place, the club called up Michael Saunders.
  • Matt Chico is garnering a lot of consideration to make the start against Florida on Saturday in place of John Lannan. Chico missed nearly two years recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Read full story · Comments { 0 }

A Tale of Two Peavys

By on May 5, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

Thanks to the PitchFX data available at Fangraphs.com, I was able to look back at Jake Peavy‘s seven-inning gem against Kansas City and compare it to his previous start, a six run, six walk disaster against Texas.

Bad Start vs. TEX: Peavy's fastball (green), two-seam fastball (blue) and cutter (teal) are all highly erratic, some moving much less than others. Peavy also threw more curveballs (purple) and sliders (red) than in his good start against KC.

Good Start vs. KC: Peavy's pitches are much more consistent, especially the fastball, two-seam fastball and cutter. Not only are they more consistent, but they are also moving more since the cluster is located further away from the center line.

Bad Start vs. TEX: This chart depicts velocity on the vertical axis and horizontal movement on the horizontal axis. Like with the previous graphs, this shows the more erratic pitch movements throughout his outing.

Good Start vs. KC: Compared to the start against TEX, Peavy's velocity was much higher in his outing against KC. Pairing that with more and consistent horizontal movement made him much more effective.

This chart shows Peavy's fastball velocities since 2007 (green dot is average velocity). In the good start vs. KC, Peavy had his highest average velocity since his fourth-to-last start of 2009, a span of 11 starts. More importantly, Peavy's average velocities in all but two starts this season (May 3 vs. KC, Apr 22 vs. TB) were lower than any of the three with the White Sox to end last season. As you know, Peavy was great in those three outings. Throughout his career, Peavy's success has directly correlated with his velocity, so the last outing is a great sign.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

May 5: Damon Exits Wednesday’s Game Early, Jacoby Ellsbury Finally Takes BP, and Alex Gordon to Learn Left Field

By on May 5, 2010 | Comments { 0 }

It’s a little later in the day, but I wanted to get in some of Wednesday’s early action. Here are your Fantasy Headlines for Cinco de Mayo:

  • Injured Diamondback Conor Jackson (hamstring) is set to begin a rehab stint on Wednesday and he  could be back as early as this weekend.
  • Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens was hopeful he would start this Saturday, but now that’s doubtful.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (fractured ribs) took batting practice yesterday and could return in the near future.
  • Cincinnati’s Scott Rolen is getting a scheduled off-day tonight.
  • Brad Hawpe (quadriceps) is beginning a rehab assignment and could be back for Monday’s game while Jason Hammel (groin) will pitch in a Triple-A game on Friday, perhaps his only rehab appearance.
  • Johnny Damon left today’s game in the fourth inning with right calf spasms and is listed as day-to-day.
  • Perennial disappointment Alex Gordon will play left field in the minors, so maybe he has a future there.
  • Vin Mazzaro is heading to the minors to make room for Henry Rodriguez in Oakland.
  • Philadelphia’s J.A. Happ isn’t expect back before June and Ryan Madson could miss up to eight weeks.
  • San Diego starter Chris Young is dealing with a sore shoulder.
  • Derek Holland is turning heads with Texas’ Triple-A team.
Read full story · Comments { 0 }
  • 2012 MLB Closer Chart
  • About BaseballProf
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • xBA/xBABIP By Year
  • Contact
  • #TheseAreStats
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Buy/Sell
  • Daily Dozen
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • FAAB Five
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Power Rankings
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • Twice is Nice
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009