Week 5 MLB Power Rankings

By on May 1, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Note: All records and stats are through Sunday, April 29.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (16-6, Last Wk: 2)

Javy Guera got two losses, but Chris Capuano cancelled them out with his two wins. Matt Kemp is still on a tear, and he’s leading the league in HR, OPS, BA and is tied for first with Ian Kinsler in runs. I thought they’d start to fall off, and maybe with May here they will, but sweeping the other streaking NL team, Washington, was very impressive. The Dodgers have been the best team in the NL West, leading the way with a fifth-best 2.98 ERA and a .208 BAA. Maybe all they needed was to get the messy owner situation resolved.

2. Texas Rangers (16-6, Last Wk: 1)

The Rangers would have been first again, but they only went 3-3 against the Rays and Yankees. Derek Holland lost twice and Matt Harrison gave up six earned runs and 14 hits in an 8-4 loss to the Rays. The offense is still prolific, leading the MLB in batting average, hits, runs and RBI. Colby Lewis has been good, but he usually tails off, serving up homers aplenty. Josh Hamilton paces the league’s most potent offense, leading Texas in HR, RBI, and BA. He might be hoisting another AL MVP award later this season, provided he doesn’t miss any extended time.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (14-8, Last Wk: 4)

The defending champs did go 3-3 last week, but the three losses were all by margins of 3-2. The offense put up 13 and seven runs in two wins, so that hasn’t been an issue. Lance Lynn and Kyle Lohse (both have four wins and a sub 1.70 ERA) continue their impressive early seasons, masking the struggles that Adam Wainwright has suffered thus far. He is 0-3, but his best outing was his last, going six innings with seven strikeouts and only one walk in a 3-2 loss. His WHIP (1.47) is high because of the number of hits (24), not walks (5), so once he is completely comfortable on the mound again, his numbers will be scary good.

4. Atlanta Braves (14-8, Last Wk: 5)

Atlanta went 4-2 last week, taking 2 of 3 from the Dodgers and from the Pirates (although the finale against Pittsburgh was Monday). Craig Kimbrel justified being the first closer taken, picking up three saves. Jair Jurrjens, however, was so bad that he was sent down to Triple-A Gwinnet following a dreadful start against the Dodgers (3.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 hits). So exit Jurrjens and enter Tim Hudson, who went five innings in giving up six hits and two earned runs in a win against Pittsburgh. The offense is tied with St. Louis for the second-most runs in the NL, so Atlanta can do it with pitching and hitting.

5. Washington Nationals (14-8, Last Wk: 2)

Washington cooled off a tad last week, losing their last four, a streak where they scored 3 or more runs once. Gio Gonzalez went 1-1 last week, but he is tied with Stephen Strasburg for the team lead in Ks (34). The Nationals lead the MLB in team ERA (2.33) and BAA (.203), so the pitching might be able to mask some of the offensive droughts (currently averaging over 3 runs a game). Adam LaRoche is still hitting over .300 (.329), but he’s the only regular over .280. He has also struck out 20 times, but Danny Espinosa leads the team with 27 Ks. We might have jumped on the bandwagon a little too prematurely, but the Nationals are still capable of winning a wild card spot.

6. Tampa Bay Rays (14-8, Last Wk: 10)

The Rays capped off a 5-1 stretch last week with a three-game sweep of the Angels and taking 2 of 3 from the Rangers. David Price got two wins and is one of the best left-handers in the game. Despite late-inning heroics Sunday night against the Rangers, Fernando Rodney got two saves on the week, so he hasn’t imploded yet. Carlos Pena has cooled off, his batting average dipping to .266, and Ben Zobrist is struggling (.213). The leader is and always has been Evan Longoria, so as long as he stays healthy, he will produce, but he will need help from the others (Desmond Jennings, B.J. Upton, Zobrist, Pena).

7. New York Yankees (12-9, Last Wk: 7)

My unfortunate pick (being from Massachusetts) to represent the AL in the World Series, the Yankees lost Michael Pineda for the season. Getting Andy Pettite back might help some, but he’s still ancient and past his prime. Nick Swisher will miss at least a week now, so bringing in another relic, Raul Ibanez, is looking better for New York since Brett Gardner is still out. C.C. Sabathia got a pair of wins last week, but both Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia looked like guys destined for the bullpen. It’s still early and they ARE the Yanks, so you know any deficiency will be addressed come the trade deadline. Until then, it’s relic time!

8. Baltimore Orioles (14-8, Last Wk: 12)

Huh?!? Usually by this time, the Orioles are out of the division race. What has usually been an achilles heel, the pitching, is actually a team strength. A team ERA of around 3.00 has Baltimore in the fifth spot in the MLB. If they consistently get good outings from Jason Hammel (who must love not pitching at Coors Field anymore) like they have and Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta can be respectable, then we’ll be talking about Baltimore in July. Another reason that we will talk about Baltimore in July is Adam Jones. He and Nolan Reimold are hitting above .330 with five and six homers respectively. If these young bucks don’t hit a wall, they can carry the offense.

9. New York Mets (12-9, Last Wk: 11)

Dillon Gee (2) and R.A. Dickey (3) have more wins than Johan Santana (0), yet he has a 2.25 ERA and a .184 BAA. An injustice? Well, we all know that life isn’t fair. Ike Davis is still hitting under .170. But to offset that, David Wright is hitting over .330. This team is still destined to gradually move down the list. Neither the pitching, hitting nor the bullpen is stable enough to maintain the type of success they are experiencing now.

10. Toronto Blue Jays (12-10, Last Wk: 9)

Four out of five AL East teams in the top 10? If that doesn’t tell you how tough it will be all season in the East, than nothing will. Toronto has good, young pitching with Kyle Drabek and Brandon Morrow (both 2-1), ace Ricky Romero, and emerging rookie Henderson Alvarez. Jose Bautista (3 HR, .190 avg.) hasn’t gone on a home run binge yet, so that’s at least something to look forward to for Toronto fans. Jays fans have to like that Edwin Encarnacion is producing, leading Toronto in hits, homers and RBI. If he stays healthy and productive, he might finally be a great supplement to Bautista.

11. Cleveland Indians (11-9, Last Wk: 14)

Derek Lowe is 4-1 and has a 2.27 ERA. But he’s given up 35 hits and opponents are hitting .282 off of him. And he has one more walk (10) than Ks (9). How is that justifiable? It isn’t now but it will eventually catch up to him as hits and lack of outs can only be bad omens. No one is really setting the world on fire offensively, but at least they are a consistent bunch with five players having scored more than nine runs. If the Indians are to give the Tigers any chance of a challenge, both the offense and pitching will have to heat up. I don’t see that happening.

12. San Francisco Giants (12-10, Last Wk: 15)

New closer Santiago Casilla got three saves last week and Tim Lincecum won a 2-1 decision. Now he just needs to cut down on those 29 hits and 17 earned runs. If his last start is any indication, he might finally be on the right track. Madison Bumgarner has four wins and Matt Cain and Barry Zito both have sub 1.00 WHIPs. Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey provide a nice one-two punch, and if Brandon Belt comes around, things could get interesting by the Bay.

13. Detroit Tigers (11-11, Last Wk: 4)

Losing eight of your last 10 games is acceptable for a team like the Tigers. They have two potential offensive MVP candidates and Justin Verlander as a third threat. Outside of Verlander, only Drew Smyly (1.23 ERA) has been good. Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer and Adam Wilk all have ERAs over 6.00. Unless Verlander can pitch on two days rest the remainder of the season, then this problem will have to be addressed. The offense isn’t a problem as Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both hitting around .300. Cabrera has seven home runs and 20 RBI, so having Fielder as protection hasn’t been truly taken advantage of.

14. Arizona Diamondbacks (11-11, Last Wk: 13)

Joe Saunders has pitched brilliantly, including his complete-game, three-hit win over the Marlins. On the season, he has an ERA and WHIP both below 0.90. And that’s on a team with Ian Kennedy. Paul Goldschmidt has been bad enough to warrant a 1B platoon with Lyle “I just won’t go away” Overbay. Other disappointments include Justin Upton (.230 avg, 14 hits), Ryan Roberts (10 hits, .159 BA) and Chris Young (injury). If Gerardo Parra (7 steals) leads your team in steals with the likes of those mentioned above on the squad, than something is clearly wrong.

15. Boston Red Sox (10-11, Last Wk: 26)

The White Sox and the Twins were just what the doctor ordered for the ailing Red Sox. Going 6-1, Boston got closer to respectability, but it will still take a lot of work. Jon Lester pitched a gem in a 1-0 win and Alfredo Aceves got three saves in closing out one-run wins. He continues to chip away at the 27.00 ERA he once sported as closer. Next on the plate are the As, Orioles and Royals, so this team should pad its record before hitting mid-May. David Ortiz is on fire, leading the team in hits, average (.395) and is tied for home runs (4). Mike Aviles has also proven a good leadoff hitter in Jacoby Ellsbury’s absence. It might have taken such a terrible beginning for this team to gel, and they are doing just that.

16. Cincinnati Reds (11-11, Last Wk: 20)

Sean Marshall got two saves and Johnny Cueto pitched a shutout in a 6-0 win. Mat Latos, on the other hand, has given up 35 hits and 19 ER. Drew Stubbs, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce have struck out 20 or more times, but Votto has at least walked 20 times. Zack Cozart has cooled off since his fast start, but that’s to be expected from the rookie. Once he sees pitchers a second time around, he should be more consistent. The Reds are middle-of-the-pack in most hitting and pitching categories, and that’s where I think they will continue to stay all season.

17. Chicago White Sox (11-11, Last Wk: 8 )

Jake Peavy (won, 4-0) and Gavin Floyd (won, 4-1) both had good starts, but in between those starts, Chicago was bad. Like five losses in a row to the A’s and Red Sox bad. Also, they allowed 10 runs to Boston twice. Adam Dunn (5 HR, 16 RBI) hasn’t been terrible, but he hasn’t been the 40 HR threat he was before last year. Outside of Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski and Alex Rios (how?), none of the regular starters are hitting over .240. That’s horrible. If Peavy maintains his play, things won’t be as bad, but Floyd won’t be pitching against Boston every time out. It might be a long year for the White Sox.

18. Colorado Rockies (10-11, Last Wk: 16)

The Rockies were 2-4 last week and had a chance to feast on the Pirates and Mets. They failed to do so. The main offensive threats, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, are probably glad April is over. They are both primed for a breakout. Gonzalez had two or more hits in three games last week and Tulo is due for a spurt of homers. The starters have been less than average as old-timer Jaime Moyer has the best ERA of the starters (3.14). He still gives up a lot of hits, sporting a 1.57 WHIP. And to make matters worse, Jeremy Guthrie hit the DL. He wasn’t setting the world on fire, but at least he was a dependable veteran.

19. Philadelphia Phillies (10-12, Last Wk: 18)

Doc Halladay lost 5-1 to the Cubs. If Roy Halladay loses to the Cubs, then all hope is almost lost. Kyle Kendrick lost twice on the week and Hunter Pence has almost the same amount of hits (21) as strikeouts (22). He must turn things around if the Phillies hope Joe Blanton to have anything resembling a playoff-worthy offense. The 24th ranked offense (74 runs) has to be better for Halladay, Cole Hamels and eventually Cliff Lee, as they will tire from their share of 1-0 and 2-1 games. Philadelphia has proven it can win without the top three, so if Vance Worley can continue to be at least better than average, then Philly will be in it.

20. Milwaukee Brewers (10-12, Last Wk: 19)

The Brewers have the worst team ERA in the NL (5.22) and the WHIP is the worst in the league at 1.56. This is a team with Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo. Greinke did get two wins, but Gallardo gave up eight earned runs in his last start against the Cardinals. Corey Hart and Ryan Braun, who’s starting to heat up, are the only two who’ve shown up on a regular basis. Rickie Weeks is hitting below .200 and is an injury waiting to happen. John Axford did get three saves on the week, and he lowered his ERA to 4.70 in the process. I learned the hard way last year with him, but held on to him this year knowing that he’s a slow starter. If you drafted him, I hope you were as patient as I was — the man had 46 saves last year.

21. Seattle Mariners (11-12, Last Wk: 24)

Four straight wins, including a three-game sweep of the Tigers, and the Mariners are sniffing .500. The offense put up nine runs once and seven runs twice, so the offense is surprisingly showing up. Of course, Felix Hernandez has been the best on the staff. Seattle did only score two runs in the final two games last week – one run per game will not cut it. The team ERA of 4.19 would be much worse without Hernandez. The .663 OPS doesn’t help either. If Seattle has any chance of competing, Hernandez needs a ton of help as Ichiro is a year older and the youngsters (Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero) haven’t produced much at all.

22. Oakland Athletics (11-12, Last Wk: 21)

The fact that Oakland has managed to hover around .500 is impressive considering they possess the second-worst offense in terms of runs scored (67). As it usually is, the pitching has been keeping Oakland in games as the team ERA is the third-best in the NL at 3.11. Tommy Milone has been a pleasant surprise and Brandon McCarthy continues to be solid (3.23 ERA) but very hittable (given up 45 hits). Grant Balfour got two saves, but with the offense sputtering greatly, his chances will dwindle as each day passes. Yoenis Cespedes has been the best overall offensively, but the team (.203) is years and players away from being competitive.

23. Pittsburgh Pirates (9-12, Last Wk: 22)

Even though he got close to zero chances early on, Joel Hanrahan got three saves last week, making him fantasy relevant again. The offense, however, is still the worst in the league, posting only 49 runs on the season. That’s almost 20 fewer than the next spot (Oakland at 67). Every starter, save for Jeff Karstens, has an ERA under 3.00, so at least the pitching is keeping Pittsburgh in the game. However, with the inconsistency of those in the rotation (Erik Bedard, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, A.J. Burnett), the team ERA of around 2.75 is destined to get worse.

24. Miami Marlins (8-13, Last Wk: 17)

Team “On Paper” continues to disappoint early on, going 1-5 last week. The offense hasn’t gotten the memo yet, scoring only 73 runs on the season. That’s good for a tie for second-worst in the bigs. Jose Reyes was clearly playing for a big contract last year, as he only has 18 hits and a .220 average thus far. The team as a whole is batting .228. Yikes. Omar Infante and Logan Morrison are the only regulars hitting over .300. The pitching hasn’t been terrible, except for Josh Johnson (10 hits, 5 ER against Arizona last week). And Heath Bell, another big offseason acquisition, only has two saves on the season. This isn’t the type of start Miami could afford given the competitiveness of the NL East.

25. Los Angeles Angels (7-15, Last Wk: 23)

Another team that “won the off-season,” the Angels have underachieved considerably thus far (1-5 last week). Albert Pujols has yet to homer on the season and Jordan Walden has already been replaced at closer by Scott Downs. The team did lose 3 times last week by a run, so at least they are keeping it close. Bobby Abreu was released and Mike Trout was called up, so maybe that change will jump start the team. Those one-run games could just as easily become wins in a month or two, so Los Angeles needs only to stay competitive.

26. Houston Astros (8-14, Last Wk: 25)

Brett Myers got two saves last week, but Lucas Harrell got two losses. Wandy Rodriguez is clearly the ace of the staff, leading Houston in ERA, WHIP and BAA. J.D. Martinez has cooled off a tad, but Jose Altuve has not. “The Tuv” is hitting .360 with 31 hits and 15 runs. He has to be in the discussion for Rookie of the Year thus far. The Astros are floating back to reality, and games against the Mets and Cardinals this week might push Houston even further down. At least they aren’t devoid of fantasy talent (at least on offense).

27. Chicago Cubs (8-14, Last Wk: 29)

The Cubs have been a team that couldn’t get out of their own way, but a 4-2 mark last week is a step in the right direction. Starlin Castro and Bryan LaHair are both hitting north of .333, so the young offense is doing some of its part. Castro (14 RBI) cannot lead the team in RBI, however, if they hope to be competitive all season. Matt Garza is clearly the ace of the staff, and the team needs him to be with only two team saves so far. Marlon Byrd got shipped toBoston last week, so this is truly a young team that will have serious growing pains all season.

28. San Diego Padres (7-16, Last Wk: 27)

San Diego’s young offense (75 runs, .215 team average) isn’t doing much to help out the young pitching. Chase Headley has been the only real source of pop, and he’s struck out 25 times so far. And Yonder Alonso doesn’t look anything like the top prospect he was touted to be before being traded to the Padres. Anthony Bass and Cory Luebke have been the bright spots in the rotation, both sporting ERAs under 2.70. Luebke also leads the team with 3 wins. Huston Street did get two saves last week, but that was about it for him on the season. Just like the Cubs, this is a young team that will suffer its share of growing pains this year in order to be better next year.

29. Kansas City Royals (6-15, Last Wk: 30)

I guess the Royals and Twins want to share the last spot in the rankings. After stopping their 12-game losing streak last week with 3-straight wins, KC moves ahead of the Twins. Alex Gordon had eight hits and seven runs last week, so he’s at least starting to rise from his early-season funk. Eric Hosmer, however, has taken over the bottom rung of the ladder, hitting at a robust .188 clip. He still does have five homers and 13 RBI, so at least the power has been there. The pitching, however, has not. Danny Duffy has the lowest ERA of any starter at 3.63, so as usual, the pitching isn’t doing the Royals any favors. It’s going to be a long year for KC.

30. Minnesota Twins (6-15, Last Wk: 28)

The Twins went 1-4 last week as only Jason Marquis was able to record a win. The pitching has been atrocious, ranked last in team ERA at 5.64. The team can take solace in the fact that addition Josh Willingham is producing and Joe Mauer is too, and he isn’t hurt. These two will go a long way in keeping the team in games, but they’ll need a ton of help. The Twins might not make it out of the bottom five of the rankings all season.

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Daily Dozen: Craig Ready, Longo Out and Yuuuuuuu!

By on May 1, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Every morning we recap the previous night’s games, news and notes so that you’re up-to-date on everything baseball. As always you can follow us on Twitter (@BaseballProf) and like us on Facebook to get updated, fantasy-relevant news, tidbits and analysis.

1. I’ve been on the Allen Craig train since the preseason and about a week ago I recommended you pick him up and stash him on your bench/DL. Now he’s ready to return to the big leagues and should start hitting immediately. He already has second base and outfield eligibility and with Lance Berkman out he could get some time at first base as well. This is your last chance, so pick him up!

2. You hate to see a stud player go down with injury and the word on the street interwebs is that Evan Longoria could be out 6-8 weeks with a right hamstring injury. Elliot Johnson took his place after the injury and he could be a good source of immediate steals while Longoria is out.

3. What can we say about Yu Darvish that hasn’t already been said? He’s lasting longer into games (15.1 IP in last 2 GS) thanks to an improved control of the strike zone (19:4 K:BB ratio). It’s always been my viewpoint that Darvish would dominate out the gate and then struggle as the innings started to pile up and the Texas heat became unbearable. He’ll be a nice sell-high candidate come the end of June.

4. Through April 20, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun were having similarly disappointing seasons; Braun had a .245/.316/.388 with one home run and five RBI while Pujols was sporting a .276/.323/.397 with no home runs and four RBI. However, since then Braun has hit .361/.417/.889 with six home runs and 12 RBI while Pujols has struggled mightily with a .118/.176/.147 with no home runs or RBI. It just goes to show you what one hot streak can do to a player’s value. Don’t give up on Pujols just yet.

5. We’re filing this one under the “No Sh!t Sherlock” category, but Tom Milone is not a pitcher that you start on the road against one of the best lineups in the league. He remains a matchup play and I would probably not start him on Saturday at Tampa Bay unless you were in an AL-only league.

6. Bryan LaHair hit another home run, giving him five for April, but what’s even more amazing is that his BABIP continues to climb. It’s now sitting at .600! He’s due for a pretty hard fall so if you can sell high now I would definitely do so. His 35.7 K% and 35.7 HR/FB% are not good signs for his future.

7. Pedro Alvarez hit his fifth home run of the season, but he’ll be lucky to hit .240 this year. He still strikes out way too much for my, or anyone’s, liking (37.1 K%), but 20 home runs are definitely a realstic expectation.

8. Much to the dismay of Tyler Skaggs or Trevor Bauer owners, Patrick Corbin was the first minor leaguer called upon to make his MLB debut yesterday. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t horrible (5.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 6 K/3 BB) and he’s probably headed back to the minors soon. I still think Skaggs will be the first pitcher brought up (for Josh Collmenter) and it’s only a matter of time until Joe Saunders starts sucking again, which will pave the way for Bauer.

9. Scott Downs converted his second save since his promotion has still yet to allow an earned run. While that is somewhat of a flawed stat (he has two blown saves) I still love Downs as a top-10 closer for the next month or so. I’m also not dropping Jordan Walden as long as I have some space on my bench to stash him.

10. You think I’d go a whole article and not mention the fact that Jason Hammel passed yet another test by holding the Yankees to just two runs in in six innings? He has now started three games against great offenses (2 vs. TOR, 1 vs. NYY) and has pitched 18 innings, with a 2.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 15 strikeouts.

11. It was around this time last year when Freddie Freeman (1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI) started to turn his season around and while hitting a home run doesn’t signify him about to start a hot streak I still think he’s a nice buy-low option after another poor April performance.

12. Last week, I mentioned that Neil Walker‘s improved plate discipline (8.8 BB%, 10.0 K%) and ability to hit the ball hard (27.9 LD%) would eventually lead to a higher batting average and since that article (April 25) Walker has hit .444 with two runs, two doubles and one RBI. Your time to buy low is running out.

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Daily Dozen: Grim News for Crawford

By on April 27, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Every morning we recap the previous night’s games, news and notes so that you’re up-to-date on everything baseball. As always you can follow us on Twitter (@BaseballProf) and like us on Facebook to get updated, fantasy-relevant news, tidbits and analysis.

1. We kick off today’s Daily Dozen with some Carl Crawford injury news. Dr. James Andrews discovered a sprained UCL in his elbow. The good news is that he won’t need surgery, but the bad news is he could miss up to three months. The Red Sox expect him back around the All-Star break, which already puts a huge damper on Crawford’s non-existent 2012 season. I thought he was a good candidate to bounce back this year after an underwhelming 2011 season, but that seems to be a distant possibility now.

2. Some more injury news, Ryan Zimmerman is likely headed to the DL although it will be retroactive to April 20. I mentioned this in Wednesday’s post, but Zimmerman is becoming that player who I wouldn’t draft no matter how good his production was the prior year. The injuries are starting to become more of a trend with him.

3. The Angels’ offense is getting off to a very slow start, but someone forgot to tell Mark Trumbo (2-for-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI). In limited time, Trumbo has hit .342 with three home runs and eight RBI and you can believe that he will start finding more consistent at-bats to try and get this offense going. To get a picture of how bad it’s been for the Angels take a look at this tweet.

4. It wasn’t a great outing for Matt Moore (5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 6 K/2 BB) yesterday, but it was a sign that he’s ready to turn around his poor start to the season. He breezed through four innings, allowing only one base runner, before unraveling a bit in the fifth and sixth innings. What I liked to see was his changeup was generating more whiffs than usual (21.1%) and it showed with a 6:2 K:BB ratio.

5. Philip Humber (5 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 5 K/3 BB) was far from perfect last night against the red hot Red Sox. Shame on you if you got carried away and thought he was anything more than a spot starter in standard 10-team leagues. This was just a case of a good pitcher running into a hot lineup. His next start should be against Cleveland and I would probably start him.

6. It looks like Kevin Youkilis (3-for-4, 2 R, GS, 4 RBI) is getting into a groove at the plate. He has two multi-hit games in his last three and while he remains an injury risk because of his age, I’m feeling more comfortable that we are getting the .280-25-90 (150-game pace numbers) player we excepted.

7. Another Red Sox player is getting hot, too. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (2-for-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI) tends to go on hot streaks and he’s in the middle of one right now. In his last five games Salty has hit .476 (10-for-21) with three home runs and seven RBI. If you are playing the hot catcher in a shallow league pick him up and ride out the wave.

8. Shelley Duncan is struggling against right-handed pitching this year (.156 BA). He’s stuck in a slump where he has eight strikeouts in his last 10 at-bats. It might be a blessing in disguise when Johnny Damon joins the team (in early May) because, while Duncan will get less playing time, he will get much more quality at-bats against left-handed pitching (.368 BA).

9. It’s been a tough start of the season for Heath Bell as he blew another save, but this one was really bad. He allowed one hit and walked four en route to two earned runs and his third blown save. I can’t imagine he will lose his job outright to Steve Cishek or Edward Mujica, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them get the next save opportunity.

10. Jim Johnson is still in the hospital as the team is still worried about first getting him healthy and then having him join the team. We’ve enjoyed watching Pedro Strop through gas in his two saves, but last night Strop was probably unavailable so Luis Ayala notched his first save of the season. It’s a shame Johnson owners missed out on three save opportunities and if you haven’t already pick up Strop as it looks like Johnson may land on the DL.

11. Not that the Nationals have a great offense right now with Zimmerman and Mike Morse injured, but anytime Edinson Volquez (7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 7 K/1 BB) posts a 7:1 K:BB ratio I take notice. He has the makeup of a pitcher who should have great success in Petco Park; he strikes a lot of batters out and induces a lot of ground balls. He just has to get those damn walks under control!

12. Sticking with the Padres-Nationals game, Edwin Jackson (6.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 6 K/3 BB) was solid again, but it was against a very sub-par offense so it was expected. Still, the story of Jackson’s year is his improved control and he only walked three batters in 6.2 innings. It’s a small regression from his previous starts, but it’s nothing to be concerned about yet.

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Daily Dozen: Take out the “T” and “Altuve” Spells “Value”

By on April 26, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Every morning we recap the previous night’s games, news and notes so that you’re up-to-date on everything baseball. As always you can follow us on Twitter (@BaseballProf) and like us on Facebook to get updated, fantasy-relevant news, tidbits and analysis.

1. Jose Altuve went 4-for-5 for the Astros and has his season average up to .377. He scored three more runs, giving him five in the last two games, and has been a real catalyst at the top of a pretty good Houston offense. He’s struck out 11 times in 69 at-bats (15.9%), which is a pretty good rate, and he’s walked seven times in 79 plate appearances (8.9%). That’s not too bad either. Both rates are pretty much in line with his minor league numbers, and he has a career .327 average in the minors. He probably won’t be that good for Houston, but it shows his potential. Imagine a .300 season with 80-90 runs and 20-30 steals. That’s a great value. The word play with his name? That’s just a bonus.

2. James McDonald continued his breakout season for the Pirates. He went seven innings and allowed just one hit (3 BB, 8 K) to lower his season ERA to 2.78 and WHIP to 1.01. He only threw strikes on 53 of his 101 pitches, though, which is far less than impressive, but that’s been McDonald’s M.O. for his career. It was his best outing of the year by far, but control will soon become an issue. Sell if you can.

3. Carlos Beltran stole two more bases giving him five on the season. That’s more than he had in 142 games last year and 64 games in 2010. The strikeouts are up, but with five homers and five steals on the season fantasy owners will find a way to cope.

4. David Freese went 2-for-4 with his fourth homer of the year. He’s now batting .339 with those four homers and 18 RBI, but his walk and strikeout rates are a bit out of whack. He’s hitting line drives at an incredible rate right now and appears to be on the cusp of second tier third base status (health permitting). Given the stars atop the position, that’s saying something.

5. Oh, and Lance Lynn did it again. Buy in the short term, but I’m skeptical of his long-term prospects. His 14-to-4 grounder-to-fly ratio is very encouraging, though.

6. Hector Santiago imploded for the White Sox, allowing three runs and five hits in a third of an inning. He hasn’t managed a 1-2-3 inning in his last six appearances and has blown two saves on the season. His numbers are skewed by Wednesday’s outing, but his job was anything but secure entering the season. Keep an eye on Addison Reed.

7. Yoenis Cespedes got back on track with a homer against the aforementioned Santiago. I’m buying Cespedes now that he has the strikeouts under control. He struck out 15 times in his first 10 games but has fanned just seven times in his last nine.

8. Pedro Strop picked up his second save in two days for the Orioles. Jim Johnson, the team’s closer, is still in the hospital with an infection and doesn’t appear to be on the way back anytime in the near future. Roll with Strop until further notice.

9. And Jason Hammel dominated again (7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K, W). He allowed 13 grounders to just four fly balls. That’s been the story for Hammel in 2012. As long as that trend continues, so will the success.

10. Alex Liddi homered for the Mariners. If you don’t know who he is, it’s time you do. He’s the M’s power-heavy third base prospect who slashed .259/.332/.488 at triple-A last season with — wait for it — 30 homers, 121 runs and 104 RBI. He strikes out a ton, but he has a lot of power. He’s like Pedro Alvarez I guess, except he’s actually producing this year. He figures to platoon with Kyle Seager at third, starting primarily against left-handed pitchers (like Detroit’s Adam Wilk yesterday).

11. Clay Buchholz blew again for Boston. His ERA now sits at 8.87 despite the 2-1 record, and he doesn’t appear to be getting any better. I shouldn’t say that, actually. He didn’t allow a homer against the Twins after allowing five versus the Yankees in his last outing. I really don’t like Buchholz from a fantasy perspective, so much that I’d suggest dropping him if a suitable replacement can be had on free agency. And I’d consider someone like Danny Duffy a suitable replacement.

12.  Ted Lilly has allowed just nine hits in his first 20 innings, improving his ERA to 0.90 (actually, it got worse despite allowing just one run in seven innings). He has a very poor 10-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, though, so that ERA should be on the rise shortly. Then again, Lilly will always have a low BABIP as a fly ball pitcher in Dodger Stadium. He’s a great bargain starter.

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Buy/Sell, Week 4: Looking at the League’s Luckiest (and Unluckiest)

By on April 25, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

Last week I took a look at some pitchers who were off to hot/cold starts, but now we will take a look at some hitters who may have been a little lucky or unlucky in this first three weeks of the season. I created a quick exercise to determine BABIP luck, which was to subtract a batter’s line drive percentage from his BABIP. Usually a higher line drive percentage equal a higher BABIP, so generally the larger the gap then the luckier the hitter has been.

Of course, I say generally because this doesn’t account for speed, ballpark or anything else, but it’s a good, quick way of giving us a snapshot of who has and hasn’t been lucky.

Top 20 Luckiest Batters

Notes:

  • Bryan LaHair‘s line drive percentage is a nice 24 percent, but his .545 BABIP is absolutely ridiculous right now. The 6’5, 240-pound first baseman is 5-for-9 (.556) on ground balls so far this season.
  • I’m a little worried that Jayson Werth is due for some regression. His 12.5 LD% is very bad, but, like LaHair, he’s batting an absurd 9-for-19 (.474) on ground balls.
  • How does Erick Aybar have a 6.4 percent line drive rate? That’s pitiful.
  • Emilio Bonifacio won’t have a BABIP of .391 at season’s end, but he could end up somewhere north of .350 thanks to his speed, especially given how his 17.5 percent line drive rate isn’t all that bad.
  • David Freese has an unsustainably high BABIP (.432), but that’s also the product of a 22.5 percent line drive rate. He’s crushing the ball right now.

 Top 20 Unluckiest Batters

Notes:

  • Curtis Granderson‘s 40.4 line drive percentage is absolutely ridiculous, but it hasn’t resulted in the kind of BABIP you’d expect.
  • I’m buying hard on Marlon Byrd. That doesn’t mean I think he’s worth an add in all leagues, but he’s completely fallen off the table in fantasy leagues due to his poor start. Now he’s in Boston in a good ballpark and a great lineup, and he has the center field job to himself while Jacoby Ellsbury is down for another month or so. Plus, his line drive rate is 24.4 percent. He’ll start hitting very soon.
  • Ben Zobrist will turn around. I maintain that he’s a top-40 player given his power/speed combo, and I wouldn’t worry about his sub-Mendoza .175 average. Buy on him in all leagues, especially via trade. He’s a streaky hitter so owners might be frustrated right now.
  • Neil Walker has his strikeout rate down to 10.2 percent, his line drive rate is 28.3 percent, yet he’s batting just .222. He will come around. Given the early struggles of second basemen on the whole, Walker is definitely someone to buy right now.
  • One of my major criticisms of Carlos Santana last season was his 15.4 percent line drive rate. This year he’s doubled that. Unfortunately he’s traded fly balls for the extra liners, so hopefully that balances out, but he still strikes out too much to contribute in batting average. That said, he’s walking over 20 percent of the time, too. That’s crazy good and means he’s getting great pitches to hit.
  • Matt Wieters is hitting line drive 27.5 percent of the time but has a .265 BABIP to show for it. I say this for two reasons: (1) He’s finally getting on the right track, and he’s hitting .294 on the season despite the low-for-his-line-drive-rate BABIP, and (2) he won’t maintain that line-drive rate all season, but his BABIP will go up so expect the .290 average to stick.

And for your perusing pleasure, here’s the complete list of players:

NameTeamPAAVGBABIPLD%DiffGB%FB%
A.J. EllisDodgers560.2790.35518.80%0.16743.80%37.50%
A.J. PierzynskiWhite Sox550.3400.29527.10%0.02441.70%31.30%
Aaron HillDiamondbacks730.2380.25015.70%0.09331.40%52.90%
Adam DunnWhite Sox720.2460.36726.50%0.10229.40%44.10%
Adam JonesOrioles720.3040.30220.70%0.09539.70%39.70%
Adam LaRocheNationals720.2860.36426.10%0.10330.40%43.50%
Adam LindBlue Jays630.2110.23422.90%0.00552.10%25.00%
Adrian BeltreRangers640.2880.28312.70%0.15643.60%43.60%
Adrian GonzalezRed Sox710.3020.33317.00%0.16334.00%49.10%
Albert PujolsAngels740.2320.26725.00%0.01733.30%41.70%
Alcides EscobarRoyals670.3060.34624.50%0.10153.10%22.40%
Alejandro De AzaWhite Sox720.2660.28024.50%0.03538.80%36.70%
Alex AvilaTigers510.2440.27628.10%-0.00537.50%34.40%
Alex GonzalezBrewers580.2640.27523.30%0.04227.90%48.80%
Alex GordonRoyals760.1670.20523.90%-0.03445.70%30.40%
Alex PresleyPirates630.2880.34811.40%0.23461.40%27.30%
Alex RiosWhite Sox610.3400.36220.80%0.15443.80%35.40%
Alex RodriguezYankees750.2340.24018.90%0.05156.60%24.50%
Alexei RamirezWhite Sox680.2310.26420.40%0.06048.10%31.50%
Alfonso SorianoCubs640.2330.29819.10%0.10751.10%29.80%
Andre EthierDodgers740.2900.32025.90%0.06133.30%40.70%
Andrew McCutchenPirates670.3390.38218.20%0.20050.90%30.90%
Angel PaganGiants730.2320.24621.00%0.03643.50%35.50%
Aramis RamirezBrewers710.1850.21617.30%0.04336.50%46.20%
Austin JacksonTigers770.2580.30426.50%0.03934.70%38.80%
Ben ZobristRays720.1750.22924.30%-0.01445.90%29.70%
Billy ButlerRoyals710.2840.30917.50%0.13454.40%28.10%
Brandon CrawfordGiants660.2060.23119.20%0.03951.90%28.80%
Brendan RyanMariners520.1900.22615.60%0.07037.50%46.90%
Brennan BoeschTigers730.2110.23614.00%0.09652.60%33.30%
Brent MorelWhite Sox640.1720.27822.20%0.05647.20%30.60%
Brett LawrieBlue Jays740.2940.32719.30%0.13456.10%24.60%
Brian BogusevicAstros650.1850.20914.00%0.06960.50%25.60%
Brian McCannBraves630.2630.24024.50%-0.00534.00%41.50%
Bryan LaHairCubs500.3750.54524.00%0.30536.00%40.00%
Buster PoseyGiants560.3730.41023.80%0.17257.10%19.00%
Cameron MaybinPadres740.1770.24414.30%0.10154.80%31.00%
Carlos BeltranCardinals760.2620.29315.20%0.14145.70%39.10%
Carlos GonzalezRockies580.2780.31716.30%0.15458.10%25.60%
Carlos LeeAstros810.2700.27319.10%0.08236.80%44.10%
Carlos PenaRays750.3000.36820.00%0.16835.00%45.00%
Carlos RuizPhillies540.2650.25613.30%0.12351.10%35.60%
Carlos SantanaIndians640.2450.27330.60%-0.03344.40%25.00%
Casey KotchmanIndians610.1480.13317.00%-0.03759.60%23.40%
Chase HeadleyPadres780.2900.33319.60%0.13747.80%32.60%
Chone FigginsMariners800.2060.27726.10%0.01632.60%41.30%
Chris DavisOrioles560.2780.36825.60%0.11241.00%33.30%
Chris JohnsonAstros700.2940.41735.40%0.06337.50%27.10%
Chris NelsonRockies510.2390.32423.50%0.08961.80%14.70%
Chris ParmeleeTwins500.2500.34325.70%0.08620.00%54.30%
Cliff PenningtonAthletics700.2120.25516.40%0.09132.70%50.90%
Clint BarmesPirates530.1460.14720.00%-0.05342.90%37.10%
Coco CrispAthletics520.1670.19014.30%0.04745.20%40.50%
Cody RossRed Sox640.2630.31324.30%0.07032.40%43.20%
Colby RasmusBlue Jays680.2420.25524.50%0.01034.70%40.80%
Corey HartBrewers670.2860.30614.60%0.16036.60%48.80%
Curtis GrandersonYankees790.2690.29340.40%-0.11131.90%27.70%
Dan UgglaBraves770.2460.28013.20%0.14845.30%41.50%
Daniel DescalsoCardinals520.2050.26719.40%0.07361.30%19.40%
Daniel MurphyMets750.3330.36725.00%0.11753.30%21.70%
Danny EspinosaNationals700.2070.28217.90%0.10351.30%30.80%
Danny ValenciaTwins640.2100.26713.00%0.13754.30%32.60%
Darwin BarneyCubs700.2920.32126.30%0.05852.60%21.10%
David DeJesusCubs690.2590.34125.00%0.09134.10%40.90%
David FreeseCardinals630.3280.43222.50%0.20745.00%32.50%
David OrtizRed Sox700.4440.49025.90%0.23140.70%33.30%
David WrightMets620.3650.41532.60%0.08939.50%27.90%
Dayan ViciedoWhite Sox510.1800.20016.20%0.03854.10%29.70%
Dee GordonDodgers730.2390.30820.00%0.10851.10%28.90%
Delmon YoungTigers660.2670.33326.10%0.07239.10%34.80%
Denard SpanTwins770.3330.38723.00%0.15765.60%11.50%
Derek JeterYankees830.4160.41820.00%0.21861.40%18.60%
Desmond JenningsRays760.2610.29427.50%0.01931.40%41.20%
Dexter FowlerRockies580.2240.28123.50%0.04644.10%32.40%
Drew StubbsReds710.2580.33316.70%0.16662.50%20.80%
Dustin AckleyMariners750.2430.29126.80%0.02342.90%30.40%
Dustin PedroiaRed Sox720.2840.29113.80%0.15348.30%37.90%
Edwin EncarnacionBlue Jays760.2860.29615.50%0.14134.50%50.00%
Elvis AndrusRangers800.2350.26320.70%0.05650.00%29.30%
Emilio BonifacioMarlins720.2950.39117.50%0.21662.50%20.00%
Eric HosmerRoyals760.2060.19218.20%0.01047.30%34.50%
Erick AybarAngels680.2540.3086.40%0.24468.10%25.50%
Evan LongoriaRays740.3390.36715.40%0.21342.30%42.30%
Freddie FreemanBraves750.2750.34030.00%0.04028.00%42.00%
Freddy GalvisPhillies610.2110.23413.30%0.10140.00%46.70%
Gaby SanchezMarlins570.2180.2869.50%0.19138.10%52.40%
Geovany SotoCubs540.1400.16218.40%-0.02242.10%39.50%
Gerardo ParraDiamondbacks550.2600.27520.00%0.07545.00%35.00%
Giancarlo StantonMarlins580.2550.32620.90%0.11751.20%27.90%
Gordon BeckhamWhite Sox550.1800.24316.20%0.08135.10%48.60%
Hanley RamirezMarlins700.2500.27520.90%0.06634.90%44.20%
Howie KendrickAngels670.2620.31918.80%0.13156.30%25.00%
Hunter PencePhillies710.2580.29219.60%0.09656.90%23.50%
Ian DesmondNationals760.2780.31619.00%0.12653.40%27.60%
Ian KinslerRangers860.2840.25429.90%-0.04534.30%35.80%
Ian StewartCubs650.1830.22720.50%0.02245.50%34.10%
Ichiro SuzukiMariners780.2970.31330.90%0.00438.20%30.90%
Ike DavisMets650.1310.13512.50%0.01055.00%32.50%
J.D. MartinezAstros760.2860.34112.80%0.21357.40%29.80%
J.J. HardyOrioles730.1850.1707.40%0.09648.10%44.40%
J.P. ArencibiaBlue Jays540.2000.27314.70%0.12650.00%35.30%
Jack HannahanIndians530.3640.44125.70%0.18440.00%34.30%
James LoneyDodgers580.2400.25625.00%0.00638.60%36.40%
Jamey CarrollTwins780.2320.26716.90%0.09867.80%15.30%
Jason BartlettPadres580.1630.21613.90%0.07744.40%41.70%
Jason BayMets570.2400.29011.80%0.17250.00%38.20%
Jason HeywardBraves700.3060.39524.40%0.15137.80%37.80%
Jason KipnisIndians690.2370.25015.20%0.09841.30%43.50%
Jason KubelDiamondbacks620.2910.38235.10%0.03135.10%29.70%
Jay BruceReds690.2540.28316.30%0.12042.90%40.80%
Jayson WerthNationals720.3110.38312.50%0.25839.60%47.90%
Jed LowrieAstros520.2730.32422.90%0.09528.60%48.60%
Jeff FrancoeurRoyals700.2270.26324.60%0.01747.40%28.10%
Jemile WeeksAthletics850.2030.21522.40%-0.00940.30%37.30%
Jesus GuzmanPadres540.2000.26315.80%0.10552.60%31.60%
Jesus MonteroMariners630.2540.27120.00%0.07146.00%34.00%
Jhonny PeraltaTigers610.2460.31124.40%0.06737.80%37.80%
Jimmy RollinsPhillies760.2290.28620.00%0.08645.50%34.50%
Joe MauerTwins780.3130.34528.80%0.05752.50%18.60%
Joey VottoReds770.2760.38532.50%0.06037.50%30.00%
Jonathan LucroyBrewers510.2860.31317.60%0.13741.20%41.20%
Jordan SchaferAstros780.2730.40025.70%0.14337.10%37.10%
Jose AltuveAstros720.3440.39614.80%0.24851.90%33.30%
Jose BautistaBlue Jays780.2000.18018.90%-0.00941.50%39.60%
Jose ReyesMarlins720.2150.24117.50%0.06649.10%33.30%
Jose TabataPirates550.1960.23815.00%0.08872.50%12.50%
Josh HamiltonRangers810.4000.40023.80%0.16239.70%36.50%
Josh ReddickAthletics740.2360.25424.60%0.00829.50%45.90%
Josh TholeMets510.3660.42914.30%0.28651.40%34.30%
Josh WillinghamTwins760.3330.37225.00%0.12245.80%29.20%
Juan PierrePhillies560.3330.34620.00%0.14654.00%26.00%
Juan RiveraDodgers630.2630.25015.80%0.09249.10%35.10%
Justin MorneauTwins670.2240.23120.90%0.02244.20%34.90%
Justin SmoakMariners620.2030.25026.20%-0.01242.90%31.00%
Justin UptonDiamondbacks560.2390.30330.30%0.00045.50%24.20%
Kelly JohnsonBlue Jays760.2460.26815.60%0.11248.90%35.60%
Kendrys MoralesAngels510.2940.35019.50%0.15546.30%34.10%
Kevin YoukilisRed Sox560.2000.25716.70%0.09063.90%19.40%
Kirk NieuwenhuisMets580.3270.44136.10%0.08044.40%19.40%
Kurt SuzukiAthletics620.2000.24012.20%0.11832.70%55.10%
Kyle SeagerMariners610.2670.29427.50%0.01929.40%43.10%
Logan MorrisonMarlins510.3020.30029.30%0.00739.00%31.70%
Lucas DudaMets660.2280.26322.00%0.04326.80%51.20%
Marco ScutaroRockies650.2240.23622.20%0.01446.30%31.50%
Mark EllisDodgers720.2620.29118.50%0.10648.10%33.30%
Mark ReynoldsOrioles560.1250.2317.70%0.15430.80%61.50%
Mark TeixeiraYankees730.2540.25520.70%0.04843.10%36.20%
Marlon Byrd- - -560.1150.14324.40%-0.10161.00%14.60%
Martin PradoBraves760.2540.27613.60%0.14054.20%32.20%
Mat GamelBrewers630.2810.33332.60%0.00730.40%37.00%
Matt CarpenterCardinals520.2500.28616.70%0.11930.60%52.80%
Matt HollidayCardinals840.2150.22419.40%0.03045.20%35.50%
Matt JoyceRays620.3090.37117.90%0.19230.80%51.30%
Matt KempDodgers760.4550.48821.20%0.27648.10%30.80%
Matt WietersOrioles580.2940.26527.50%-0.01040.00%32.50%
Melky CabreraGiants780.2940.31718.00%0.13757.40%24.60%
Michael BournBraves820.3290.39328.10%0.11249.10%22.80%
Michael BrantleyIndians620.1960.21614.00%0.07656.00%30.00%
Michael CuddyerRockies610.3220.37027.10%0.09947.90%25.00%
Michael SaundersMariners530.2290.29425.70%0.03728.60%45.70%
Michael YoungRangers720.3620.39019.70%0.19354.10%26.20%
Miguel CabreraTigers740.3080.30014.50%0.15545.50%40.00%
Miguel MonteroDiamondbacks670.2460.29314.00%0.15348.80%37.20%
Miguel OlivoMariners580.1610.20918.60%0.02339.50%41.90%
Mike AvilesRed Sox650.3330.36220.00%0.16246.00%34.00%
Mike MoustakasRoyals640.3000.37215.60%0.21637.80%46.70%
Mike NapoliRangers640.2680.29018.90%0.10132.40%48.60%
Nate SchierholtzGiants510.3400.31720.50%0.11243.20%36.40%
Neil WalkerPirates590.2220.25028.30%-0.03341.30%30.40%
Nelson CruzRangers770.2570.34022.40%0.11636.70%40.80%
Nick HundleyPadres600.1960.21612.80%0.08838.50%48.70%
Nick MarkakisOrioles750.2310.26021.20%0.04846.20%32.70%
Nick SwisherYankees790.2650.26917.90%0.09035.70%46.40%
Nyjer MorganBrewers500.1700.21118.40%0.02763.20%18.40%
Orlando HudsonPadres580.1960.25628.60%-0.03047.60%23.80%
Pablo SandovalGiants760.3330.35125.00%0.10138.30%36.70%
Paul GoldschmidtDiamondbacks540.2080.29015.60%0.13456.30%28.10%
Paul KonerkoWhite Sox720.3380.36521.80%0.14747.30%30.90%
Placido PolancoPhillies600.1960.22420.40%0.02053.10%26.50%
Prince FielderTigers720.3280.36520.40%0.16150.00%29.60%
Rafael FurcalCardinals810.3470.40325.80%0.14548.40%25.80%
Rickie WeeksBrewers810.1880.22712.80%0.09940.40%46.80%
Robert AndinoOrioles630.3000.39525.00%0.14538.60%36.40%
Robinson CanoYankees790.2680.27320.90%0.06455.20%23.90%
Ruben TejadaMets690.2460.31924.40%0.07533.30%42.20%
Russell MartinYankees550.1950.24116.70%0.07463.30%20.00%
Ryan BraunBrewers740.2660.30428.60%0.01818.40%53.10%
Ryan DoumitTwins550.2260.26227.90%-0.01751.20%20.90%
Ryan LudwickReds510.2000.18820.00%-0.01242.90%37.10%
Ryan RobertsDiamondbacks600.1850.2209.50%0.12542.90%47.60%
Ryan SweeneyRed Sox550.3920.45531.80%0.13740.90%27.30%
Ryan ZimmermanNationals680.2240.24512.00%0.12548.00%40.00%
Scott RolenReds610.1750.22720.50%0.02250.00%29.50%
Sean RodriguezRays560.2000.27620.00%0.07646.70%33.30%
Seth SmithAthletics620.1880.20017.10%0.02951.20%31.70%
Shane VictorinoPhillies770.2710.26320.00%0.06338.30%41.70%
Shelley DuncanIndians570.2730.33325.00%0.08328.10%46.90%
Shin-Soo ChooIndians720.2370.32627.90%0.04741.90%30.20%
Starlin CastroCubs770.3380.38122.20%0.15947.60%30.20%
Todd HeltonRockies560.2200.20023.30%-0.03334.90%41.90%
Torii HunterAngels680.2790.39528.60%0.10947.60%23.80%
Travis HafnerIndians600.3330.37124.30%0.12843.20%32.40%
Troy TulowitzkiRockies670.2930.31318.00%0.13350.00%32.00%
Vernon WellsAngels640.2220.22024.50%-0.02539.60%35.80%
Will VenablePadres580.2640.29514.60%0.14953.70%31.70%
Willie BloomquistDiamondbacks540.2260.30823.70%0.07150.00%26.30%
Wilson RamosNationals500.2270.25013.50%0.11562.20%24.30%
Yadier MolinaCardinals670.2880.28630.80%-0.02238.50%30.80%
Yoenis CespedesAthletics730.2420.29722.00%0.07734.10%43.90%
Yonder AlonsoPadres650.1960.23923.90%0.00045.70%30.40%
Yunel EscobarBlue Jays840.2310.24315.50%0.08864.80%19.70%
Zack CozartReds740.2880.34613.50%0.21150.00%36.50%

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Daily Dozen: Wainwright Back on Track

By on April 25, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Every morning we recap the previous night’s games, news and notes so that you’re up-to-date on everything baseball. As always you can follow us on Twitter (@BaseballProf) and like us on Facebook to get updated, fantasy-relevant news, tidbits and analysis.

1. On Saturday I wrote that Adam Wainwright‘s biggest problem this year was locating his curveball. Well, last night Wainwright (6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 7 K/1 BB) took a step in the right direction as he brought up his called strike percentage from 6.67 percent to 12.33 percent in one start. He threw his curveball ~30 percent of the time last night, which is more at his norm for his career so it could be that he turned a corner sooner than I expected.

2. Yu Darvish (8.1 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 10 K/2 BB) finally put together a great start and go figure it’s against the New York Yankees. It’s obvious his control was better but here’s how much better it was: He threw strikes 68.9 percent of the time (56.8% before) and first-pitch strikes 63.6 percent of the time (48% before). It looks like he’s finally getting comfortable on the mound and if he can learn how to best use his vast arsenal of pitches he could be a huge contributor in fantasy this year.

3. The forgotten man in fantasy, David Ortiz, has been on an absolute tear this season (.444/.486/.714). Of course, his .490 BABIP will go south eventually, but I do like that his strikeouts are right around his career-low level from last year. Yes it sucks that in most formats he only qualifies as a utility player, but there are ways to work around it if he’s going to put up another 2011-type season.

4. Ortiz’s teammate, Carl Crawford, is getting his elbow checked again to make sure that there isn’t something more serious going on. Also getting a second opinion is Michael Pineda, who has been battling shoulder soreness since March.

5. Tommy Milone did it again last night (8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 K/0 BB), pitching eight shutout innings, using the same approach as before — using his controlled fastball to set up his nearly great changeup. He’s not going to walk (or strikeout) a lot of batters, but he has been effective so far thanks to his ballpark and ability to keep the ball on the ground around the league average 44.3 percent. Think of him as a poor man’s Tim Hudson.

6. Finally Mat Latos (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 K/2 BB) brings us a quality start we can hang out hope hats on! My colleague Bryan Curley thinks that Great American Ballpark is going to be the death of him, but he’s actually pitched better at home than on the road in this short season. All that being said, I’m buying low on Latos and you’ll see more reasons why in today’s buy/sell article.

7. If you’re in a dynasty league and haven’t paid attention to what Orioles’ pitching prospect Dylan Bundy is doing in Single-A it’s time. He’s started four games and pitched 13 innings with no hits, one walk, and 21 strikeouts. Yes, he’s only in Single-A and just 19 years old, but he’s worth owning in a dynasty league (depending on your rules of course) for his long-term potential.

8. Another minor leaguer, Travis Snider, could get promoted soon with Eric Thames not producing as well as the team hoped. Snider is hitting .405 with 23 RBI in 18 games so far.

9. Nationals’ 3B Ryan Zimmerman did not get favorable news about his shoulder and could be headed to the disabled list. It’s a shame, but we could be looking at another Scott Rolen-type player who is great when on the field, but those moments are becoming rare.

10. It was nice to see Johan Santana (6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 11 K/2 BB) dominate like the days of old, but it’s troubling that he hasn’t had any run support this season. Seriously, the Mets haven’t score a single run for him while he’s been on the mound.

11. Matt Capps might have four saves, but a 5.14 ERA/6.06 FIP and 2.57 K/9  are not going to cut it in the ninth inning for much longer. With Glen Perkins struggling, look for Brian Duensing or Anthony Swarzak to get a shot at closing games. The Twins don’t have many options.

12. Not only does Tony Campana have blazing speed, but he apparently has the umpires on his side as well. Last night he was called safe on two occasions where he didn’t even touch the base! <sarcasm>If the umps aren’t going to call him out on the basepaths then Campana will probably steal 60 bases this year. </sarcasm>

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Week 4 MLB Power Rankings

By on April 24, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Every week Matt will be ranking the top 30 teams in baseball, and if we know anything about power rankings it’s that most of you will have a different opinion so let yourself be heard in the comments section below!

All records and stats are through Sunday, April 22.

1. Texas Rangers (13-3, Last Wk: 1)

The Rangers took two games from the reeling Red Sox and three of four from the Detroit Tigers. Not bad for the two-time A.L. Champions. The offense put up six or more runs in four of the six games including 18 and 10 runs two different times. Josh Hamilton has clearly put his off-season issues behind him, as he leads the A.L. in homers (7), OPS (1.214) and is second in both average (.418 to David Ortiz’ .436) and RBI (17, Nick Swisher has 20). One thing to be cautious of however, it seems everything is going the Rangers’ way so far. That will level off at some point.

2. Washington Nationals (12-4, Last Wk: 4)

The Nationals were 5-1 last week and got wins from starters Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Ross Detwiler. Henry Rodriguez has proven he’s ready to be the closer in name also, collecting three saves last week. If you need a closer, add him — he throws almost in the triple digits. The offense hasn’t been bludgeoning the ball as half of the Nationals’ games (8) have been decided by a run. All in all, if the pitching can carry Washington, then they’re better off in the long run anyways.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (12-4, Last Wk: 2)

The Matt Kemp MVP Tour of 2012 continues. He leads the MLB in homers, RBI, OPS, batting average and slugging percentage. If you drafted him instead of Albert Pujols, you must think you’re a genius. Pujols won’t go homerless much longer, and when he gets going watch out. Kemp is one of the few players in the league who could logically lead the league in every category. He only has a steal on the season, but we’ll forgive that. Clayton Kershaw got win number one finally, and Javy Guera got two more saves. The Dodgers are loving April, but May is approaching ever so quickly.

4. St. Louis Cardinals (11-5, Last Wk: 3)

Kyle Lohse and Lance Lynn have been two of the best pitchers in the league so far in 2012. Both have three wins, WHIPs under 0.80 and ERAs under 1.50. And this is from a team waiting for Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright to get back to 100 percent. Talk about stacked. Lance Berkman went on the DL, but Carlos Beltran (5 HR, 17 hits, 13 runs) has been a great addition to the offense. Matt Holliday leads St. Louis with 71 at bats, but is hitting only .198. It bodes well if the Cards can produce without Holliday at the top of his game.

5. Detroit Tigers (10-6, Last Wk: 5)

After sweeping the Royals, Detroit lost three of four to the Rangers. As I have said previously, after Justin Verlander, the rotation is suspect at best. He carried Detroit last year, but if the Tigers hope to advance any further than the ALCS, then Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and eventually Doug Fister, must come up big. Speaking of big, Prince Fielder hasn’t set the world on fire yet (2 HR, 8 RBI) but he is hitting .317. Miguel Cabrera has been good but not the MVP he has shown he could be, hitting four homers with 12 RBI and a .290 average.

6. Atlanta Braves (10-6, Last Wk: 11)

A 5-2 week vaulted the Braves back into the top 10. I still believe the historic collapse of last year was a fluke and that Atlantawill be in the thick of the postseason come October. Tim Hudson has been ailing, but Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor have picked up the slack. Michael Bourn is getting on base (22 hits, 7 steals) so the offense will get better once Dan Uggla heats up and Jayson Heyward and Freddie Freeman start knocking the hide off of the ball. Craig Kimbrel only got one save, so he didn’t help out much in the last week.

7. New York Yankees (9-6, Last Wk: 6)

The Yankees embarrassed Boston last week. Much of the embarrassment was Boston’s own fault too. New York won 6-2 on the 100th anniversary of Fenway Park and then they broke Sox’ fans hearts the next day, scoring 15 unanswered runs after trailing 9-0. Early on, the A.L. East is wide open, but how can a rival make a better statement than the Yankees made on those two days? Only the rain saved the Red Sox from what could have been another chapter in the biggest rivalry in the MLB. Swisher has been on fire lately and has four homers and 20 RBI on the season.

8. Chicago White Sox (9-6, Last Wk: 8 )

Highlighting the White Sox week was obviously Phil Humber’s perfect game on Saturday. That feat has only been accomplished 20 other times, so it is impressive in any light. While Chicago did sweep the Mariners, it’s the Mariners, and before that, they split four games with Baltimore. Offensively, Adam Dunn is hitting above .240 and Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski both have 10+ RBI. This could be a dark horse team later in the season if those mentioned above can maintain some model of consistency. Hector Santiago has struggled a tad in his role as closer, but they do have options to fall back on (Matt Thornton, Addison Reed, Jesse Crain).

9. Toronto Blue Jays (9-6, Last Wk: 17)

Ricky Romero got two wins and Toronto ended the week with a three-game sweep of the hapless Royals. The offense has the fifth-most runs in the league, so even without Jose Bautista jacking bombs, the team can score. A big weakness is the bullpen as the Jays have converted only 3-of-7 save opportunities. Sergio Santos is hurt so Francisco Cordero gets the first shot at taking the role. He did get a save on Sunday, but he’s got an ERA north of 5 and opponents are batting .321 against him. Those aren’t closing numbers.

10. Tampa Bay Rays (9-7, Last Wk: 12)

The Rays went 5-2 last week, and James Shields reminded us of the guy who led the league in complete games last year. He shut out the Red Sox 1-0 and notched his second win surrendering only one run in a 4-1 win over the Twins. Fernando Rodney did get two more saves, but I still feel like it’s only a matter of time before he implodes. B.J. Upton returned to play in three games, so the offense is as close to full strength as it has been so far. So long as Evan Longoria stays healthy, then this team will be dangerous every night.

11. New York Mets (8-6, Last Wk: 7)

Another team that the rain effected, the Mets went 2-3 last week and lost two of three to the Braves, and they were outscored 24-15 in the division series. R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana both lost, and each had strong starts to the season. The offense has struck out the third most in the league, highlighted by Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and Jason Bay, all of whom have fanned 15 or more times. The bullpen was already a mess, so if Santana and Dickey can get their ERAs closer to the other starters (around 3.00), then the Mets might have a chance at staying close to the top ten.

12. Baltimore Orioles (9-7, Last Wk: 18)

Another team whose success might be fleeting, the O’s did go 4-3 last week and got three saves from Jim Johnson. Offensively, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters each have five homers on the season. Nick Markakis might be coming out of his early funk but Mark Reynolds (no homers, 22 Ks) has been downright atrocious, even for him. The pitching, perennially a weakness, has also been hit (Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen) or miss (Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter). Baltimore must do all it can to win as many games this upcoming week against the Blue Jays and Athletics (they face both three times) because the Yankees loom the following week.

13. Arizona Diamondbacks (8-8, Last Wk: 9)

The Diamondbacks went an ugly 2-5 last week, and lost four in a row to the Pirates and the Braves. Not a week to remember. Chris Young went on the DL and the saving grace is that Ian Kennedy, the team’s stopper, did his job in a 6-4 win over the Braves. He has three wins, but Joe Saunders (1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) has been the best pitcher, beating the Pirates 5-1 but falling 3-2 to Atlanta. This is still a dangerous team capable of putting up a ton of runs, so .500 might be in the rearview soon.

14. Cleveland Indians (8-6, Last Wk: 22)

The Indians jumped eight spots, but a 4-2 record against Oakland and Seattle is hardly something to about which to boast. While you can only play the teams on your schedule, Cleveland is still two games over .500 and has a series against the Royals up next before facing the Angels. Chris Perez did get a save in all four wins, so he’s been a nice contributor. The pitching has been a disappointment, posting a 4.47 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Even though another wild card spot was added, it will still be tough to battle through some of the AL’s finest.

15. San Francisco (7-7, Last Wk: 15)

When you beat teams you should (Pirates, Rockies) and split with the better teams (Phillies, Mets) on your schedule, you’ll be around .500. Everyone on the starting staff has had a solid outing save for Tim Lincecum, so it should only be a matter of time for “The Freak” to join the club. The offense is still a question mark as the team leader has only two dingers (Pablo Sandoval). The Giants have proven in the recent past that they can win close games, but with a less than stellar offense, things might get tough going into May.

16. Colorado Rockies (8-7, Last Wk: 23)

A 4-2 week put Colorado over .500 for the second time this season. New closer Rafael Betancourt got three saves last week and Jaime Moyer became the oldest pitcher (49) to win an MLB start with his 5-3 win over San Diego. Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .296 with 16 hits and 11 runs. And that’s without one of his patented surges he has four or five times a season. Something tells me one’s coming very soon. Michael Cuddyer has adjusted to hitting in the N.L., leading the regular starters with 11 RBI and a .345 average. The Rockies have six games to feast on the Pirates and Mets this week before the division-leading Dodgers come to town to start next week.

17. Miami Marlins (7-8, Last Wk: 19)

The offseason darlings have almost made it to .500 thanks to a three-game sweep of the Pirates. They dropped two straight to the Nationals before the finale got rained out. Heath Bell finally did get his first two saves of the season. For all the fanfare prior to the season, Jose Reyes hasn’t delivered yet, hitting .230 with only six runs scored. He has four steals, but if he cannot get on base, then he can’t be his normal dangerous self on the base paths. Despite his 1-2 record, Mark Buerhle has been the best pitcher, posting a 2.66 ERA and a 12:2 K:BB ratio. Josh Johnson has looked out of it all season, so maybe he isn’t as healthy as he thought. The team will have erratic success all season out of the starters, so the Miami Marlins we’ve seen so far might not be that far off from the team we see in September.

18. Philadelphia Phillies (7-9, Last Wk: 14)

A 3-4 week that included two losses to the Padres? The Phillies can’t seem to put up enough runs to make a dent, scoring five or more runs only once last week. The offense has scored only 43 runs on the season, good for second worst in the league. The team is going to be in its share of one run games, but with the surge of the Nationals and the expectations heaped on the Marlins and the Braves, Philadelphiamight have a tough road back to the postseason. Jonathan Papelbon did get three saves last week, so the team does have positives outside of the starters.

19. Milwaukee Brewers (7-9, Last Wk: 16)

The Brewers are sort of like the Phillies to me this year: the team that won the division last year but a team that will struggle this year. The offense can still put up runs (67 in 16 games), but the pitching is in the bottom fifth of the league in terms of ERA, so Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum have a lot of work to do (no one picked up a decision last week). Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart have all struck out more than 15 times each, so the lineup isn’t helping much either.

20. Cincinnati Reds (7-9, Last Wk: 21)

The Reds went 2-5 against the Nationals and Cardinals last week, so things could be worse. Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto notched wins, but after that, no starter was successful. Mat Latos and Mike Leake have ERAs north of six and Joey Votto, not far removed from his MVP season, is hitting only .288. He’s walked 16 times but fanned 17 times. And Zack Cozart has cooled of considerably since his torrid start to the season.

21. Oakland Athletics (8-9, Last Wk: 26)

Taking three of four from the Angels is always impressive, especially considering that Oakland beat Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and C.J. Wilson in succession. One disheartening thing is that Brandon McCarthy, the supposed ace of the staff, lost two games last week. Yoenis Cespedes leads the team regulars with a .254 average, homers (4), RBI (15), but also strikeouts (21). He’s still adjusting to the American game, so that’s to be expected. Beating the Angels is always good for the Athletics, but they haven’t been firing on all cylinders yet. It might start to get ugly really quick for Oakland.

22. Pittsburgh Pirates (6-9, Last Wk: 27)

Jumping five spots is great for Pittsburgh, but they’re still 6-9. The offense is still the league’s worst, scoring only 30 runs in 15 games, or a two runs per game average. That’s flipping atrocious. A.J. Burnett did get a 2-0 win in his Pirates’ debut, but that was about the only thing to celebrate. Andrew McCutchen leads the team in average, stolen bases and hits, but he obviously cannot do it alone. And Joel Hanrahan (one save last week) is less the weapon he can be if the starters cannot get to him for save chances.

23. Los Angeles Angels (6-10, Last Wk: 13)

I keep saying this, but Pujols has yet to break out. He is so due to go on a tear. The Angels lost three of four to the As, and the starters (save for Jered Weaver) have been weak. Weaver got two wins last week, but if you cannot beat Oakland and Baltimore, then games against better teams like the upcoming Rays, won’t go well. The 18th ranked offense will rebound once again, like I said, when Pujols comes around. Vernon Wells leads the team with three homers, and on a team with Pujols, Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales, that is not acceptable.

24. Seattle Mariners (7-10, Last Wk: 20)

Losers of four-straight, Seattle finally got to feel what it’s like to play someone other than Oakland. The offense did put up eight runs once, but it was an anomaly as they scored three runs or less in three contests last week. The pitching staff is still going to need more than Felix Hernandez, and if they cannot get to Brandon League, their chances at success decrease greatly. Ichiro Suzuki “leads” the team with a .275 batting average, so if he’s struggling, the rest of the team looks all the worse. The experiment hitting third might need to be changed.

25. Houston Astros (6-10, Last Wk: 24)

Houston went 2-5 last week, but had outbursts of 12 and 11 runs. Considering the youth of the offense, these must be good signs for the future, but the inconsistency doesn’t help now. In the other tilts, they scored three or more runs just once. We had to know that it was going to be a difficult year for the Astros, but seeing J.D. Martinez and Jose Altuve is a positive sign of progress. Martinez has three homers and 14 RBI while Altuve is batting .333 with 20 hits. The pitching isn’t horrid, as Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris have been decent despite not getting wins.

26. Boston Red Sox (4-10, Last Wk: 11)

Last week had to be one of the worst weeks in recent Boston history. Boston lost five-straight to Tampa Bay, Texas and the Yankees, so it’s not like they lost to the Royals or Twins. Nonetheless, this is a team that has high expectations. The offense has been fine, just not timely. David Ortiz is hitting over .400 and Cody Ross has fit in nicely. The main problem has been the bullpen and the starters. Josh Beckett and Felix Doubront “lead” in ERA at a shade under four and a shade above five, so any change for the better starts here.

27. San Diego Padres (5-12, Last Wk: 29)

If you can’t hit more than .214 as a team then you will lose a great deal of games. Anthony Bass and Cory Luebke (2 wins last week) have been the best pitchers as the team went 3-4 last week. Huston Street hasn’t had many save chances, so he’s been useless as a fantasy commodity thus far. Chase Headley has been the best offensive player thus far, but this team has young talent in Nick Hundley, Yonder Alonso, Cameron Maybin and Jesus Guzman. Once Maybin cuts down on his strikeouts, he’ll be all the more dangerous.

28. Minnesota Twins (5-11, Last Wk: 30)

Surprisingly, the Twins were competitive last week, splitting with the Yankees before losing two of three to the Rays. The starters just cannot seem to hold it together, sporting the second-worst team ERA in the league at 5.36. Josh Willingham has been a welcome addition, and Denard Span has also produced. Matt Capps got two saves last week, so any success in the near future must stem from Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano putting it together to be at least respectable.

29. Chicago Cubs (4-12, Last Wk: 28)

The Cubbies went 1-5 last week, getting their only win from Paul Maholm. That’s not good. Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija had been holding things together, but they both got rocked last week. Starlin Castro is still hitting above .350 and Bryan LaHair has been good so far in limited at bats. The Cubs are sort of like the Padres in that they have a lot of good young talent, but that doesn’t necessarily do much for them now. Carlos Marmol only has one save on the season, so until the starters do better, he won’t be a factor.

30. Kansas City Royals (3-12, Last Wk: 25)

Kansas City has lost 10 games in a row, including six in a row last week to Detroit and Toronto. Wow. Usurping the top worst spot from Minnesotawasn’t that tough. Bruce Chen has an ERA of 2.52 and a WHIP under 1.00, but he’s got two losses. And one of last year’s breakout players, Alex Gordon, has been terrible, hitting around .170 with 20 strikeouts. Eric Hosmer is also just above .200, so it’s not all on Gordon. The one constant over the years offensively has been Billy Butler, and he’s hitting .290. It’s ugly, yes, but this team has some offensive skills that haven’t been on display yet (steals).

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