Player Profile #87: Joe Mauer | C | MIN

By on February 3, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Sure, we’ll rank Joe Mauer 87th. That seems like a pretty non-controversial ranking. It’s high enough that he’s still considered a top fantasy talent, especially at his position, but it’s low enough to reflect the risk associated with having Mauer as your starting catcher. No one expects Mauer to come close to hitting 28 homers again, especially at Target Field, but a .300-plus average and around 70-80 runs and RBI are expected totals. In 2010 such a season was good for 85th overall.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy and finishes first among all catchers
Similar players: Miguel Montero (ARI), Mike Napoli (TEX) with a better average but fewer homers, Michael Young (TEX)
Worst case scenario: Injuries linger once again

Strengths

BA, R, RBI, vs. RHP. These three stats are very hard to find among catchers, particularly the first two. With Victor Martinez out, no other catcher can provide all three like a healthy Mauer. And while Mauer has always hit well against almost everyone, he’s demolished right-handed pitchers to the tune of a .338 average and .942 OPS for his career.

Weaknesses

HR, injury. Mauer doesn’t hit a lot of homers. Some may draft him hoping that good health will lead to another 20-homer campaign, but I’ll cap his single-season total at about 12-14. As for the injuries? Those will be a concern for the rest of his career.

ADP Report (81.8)

I wouldn’t go much higher than this for Mauer. He has elite potential, ranking ninth overall in 2009, but it’s unlikely he ever approaches those numbers again. His 2010 line is what we should project for 2012, and that was good enough for 85th. No matter where you pick Mauer, though, you better have a good backup plan. It might even be a good idea to draft someone like J.P. Arencibia to hedge your bet.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #88: Mat Latos | SP | CIN

By on February 3, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

It was just two years ago that Mat Latos finished 13th in the league with a 2.92 ERA. That year he struck out over a batter per inning and held opponents to just a .216 average. Last season didn’t go quite as well. Latos finished outside the top 100, but his 3.16 FIP was only marginally worse than the year before. This season Latos finds himself pitching in Cincinnati instead of the spacious Petco Park, and most pundits will tell you this is a bad move for Latos’ fantasy value. When analyzing the impact of moves from one home park to another, xFIP is actually better to use than FIP because xFIP normalizes for league average HR/FB rates. Well, last season Latos had a 3.51 xFIP, and Great American Ballpark is more hitter-friendly than your average ballpark. Perhaps the pundits are right.

Best case scenario: Zack Greinke (MIL)
Similar players: Matt Garza (CHC), Michael Pineda (NYY), Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
Worst case scenario: Anibal Sanchez (MIA)

Strengths

K, WHIP, control. Wins are hard to predict, and it remains to be seen how good the Reds will actually be this year after a disappointing 2011 season. Latos is among the league’s best in terms of strikeout rate, and 2012 will likely be the first time Latos tops 200 innings and threatens 200 Ks. His walk rate is also borderline elite and his worst OBA in the last three years is .228. His WHIP will be very good as well.

Weaknesses

FB%, ballpark. Latos allowed fly balls to 41.1 percent of the batters who made contact last season, which is right around what he’s done in the other two years in the majors. That rate was 16th-highest of the 94 qualifying starters last season, and in Great American Ballpark that could be an issue.

ADP Report (72.2)

Too rich for my blood. I have serious concerns about Latos’ ability to keep an elite ERA in Cincinnati. Perhaps I’m playing too much into the whole “change of ballpark” thing, but there are safer options in the sixth or seventh rounds of your fantasy draft.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #89: Corey Hart | OF | MIL

By on February 3, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

We’ve used Corey Hart rather frequently as out best-case scenario for outfielders with good pop, a solid average and enough speed to have some impact in steals. Despite playing in just 130 games last season, Hart managed to rank 91st by season’s end, but how will the loss of Prince Fielder affect Hart’s 2012 stat line? That’s hard to know seeing as Hart bounced all around the Milwaukee lineup last season, settling in as the team’s leadoff hitter when Rickie Weeks‘ season ended prematurely, but I’ll go out on a limb here and guess Fielder’s absence won’t be beneficial. Hart still has 30-homer power and will continue to post averages around .280, but Milwaukee’s overall run production will suffer greatly. Oh, and some guy named Ryan Braun will miss some time, too.

Best case scenario: Josh Hamilton (TEX) assuming Hamilton misses about 30 games, which he usually does
Similar players: Nelson Cruz (TEX), Adam Jones (BAL), Carlos Santana (CLE)
Worst case scenario: Josh Willingham (MIN)

Strengths

HR, R, balance. If you thought Hart was destined to become a balanced 20/20 threat a few years back, join the club. Instead, he traded in the speed for power and now he’s a 30-homer threat. We’ll see where he bats in Milwaukee’s lineup (MLBDepthCharts.com has him slated at fifth right now with Braun factored in) but he could see a lot of time hitting ahead of Braun and new third baseman Aramis Ramirez. If that’s the case, Hart will be a good source of runs. Either way, he does a little bit of everything.

Weaknesses

Milwaukee’s deteriorating lineup, hitting on the road. With Fielder gone and Braun (for now) out of the lineup, Hart won’t be getting the same support he’s used to in Milwaukee. Hart’s also batted just .256 with 27 homers in 195 games on the road over the last three seasons versus .301 with 45 homers in 195 games at home over the same span.

ADP Report (89.8)

It seems mock drafters value Hart just like we do. He ranked 91 last year despite missing time due to injury, and even though he should play more games this season, the significant lineup changes in Milwaukee will likely counter any positive effect those extra games will have on Hart’s end-of-season stat line.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #90: C.J. Wilson | SP | LAA

By on February 3, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Just when I had finally come around on C.J. Wilson as a starting pitcher, he up and leaves for a new organization. Thankfully he’s moving from the hitter-friendly Ballpark in Arlington to the hitter hell that’s Angel Stadium, but there are a lot of good reasons to like Wilson. He’s become a 200-inning starter, and he upped his strikeout rate last season to 8.30 K/9, which was enough for him to cross the 200-strikeout threshold. On the other hand, his 3.24 FIP doesn’t quite agree with his 2.94 ERA, but he should still be a low-ERA starter in the AL West. An interesting subplot, though (both in fantasy and real life), is how he’ll fare against the strong Texas offense that’s been supporting him these last few seasons. My guess is he’ll it a rough patch here or there, and I’d be surprised if he can repeat his 2011 numbers as a result.

Best case scenario: David Price (TB)
Similar players: Josh Beckett (BOS), James Shields (TB), Matt Cain (SF)
Worst case scenario: Ervin Santana (LAA)

Strengths

Better ballpark, road ERA, workhorse. Wilson had a 2.31 ERA away from Texas last season, and that’s a good sign for 2012 seeing as he’ll likely return to Arlington on just one or two occasions. Even if Wilson’s K/9 drops a little, he throws enough innings to top 180 strikeouts.

Weaknesses

Tougher divisional lineups. Last season Wilson made 16 starts against the Angels, Athletics and Mariners who finished 17th, 20th and 30th, respectively, in runs scored. He made 18 starts against everyone else. Now he has to face the Rangers and their third-ranked offense from 2011.

ADP Report (88.6)

This is probably a good time to starting thinking about drafting Wilson, but visions of another 43rd-ranked season might be a bit premature. I think numbers similar to 2010 are more what we should expect, but that season was still good enough for 96th overall. That would make him worth a pick right around this ADP.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Top Minor League Prospects: Detroit Tigers

By on February 2, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

It’s not hard to find a list of any MLB team’s top prospects, but will any of those prospects be ready to contribute in 2012? We’re here to help you prepare for the unexpected by ranking each team’s top five minor league prospects from a fantasy perspective. While they may not be the team’s brightest stars (though many of them will be) they’re the names you’ll need to know when the unexpected happens. Make sure to check out our other top minor league prospects posts for each of the 30 teams.

Potential roster vacancies: OF, SP

With the signing of Prince Fielder, the Detroit Tigers have officially announced their candidacy for the 2012 AL Pennant. Miguel Cabrera has agreed to shift to third base, solidifying what might be the most fearsome three-four duo at the heart of any lineup in baseball. The Tigers are going for it all this season, and that means they’ll likely rely heavily on veterans to get the job done instead of turning to unproven minor leaguers. Jhonny Peralta had a throwback season last year and will be the team’s shortstop, and despite failing to cash in on a starting job in 2011, Ryan Raburn should see the majority of the at-bats at second base. And, when Raburn’s out of the lineup or roaming the outfield, Ramon Santiago will be at second. Alex Avila is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, so there’s little reason to expect anyone else to see time behind the plate.

The outfield is a little more fluid. Austin Jackson will be the everyday starter in center, but Brennan Boesch hasn’t proven he can put a complete season together yet. He still goes through stretches where “cold” might be too generous a description, and 26-year-old Andy Dirks has all of 235 plate appearances of major league experience. Don Kelly has been Detroit’s bench outfielder for the last three seasons, but the Tigers will likely need more than his mediocre bat (though above average defense) at some point this season.

In the rotation, it doesn’t get much better than Justin Verlander, but one man does not a rotation make. Max Scherzer is an effective innings eater, and I’m very high on Doug Fister, but Detroit’s rotation depth will be made or broken by Rick Porcello‘s continued development. If they can go four strong in the rotation, it will lessen the pressure on top prospect Jacob Turner, who right now is the Tigers’ likely fifth starter. Turner has good minor league numbers and has demonstrated great control, but he’s unproven. Even though he’s technically a rookie, I’ll leave him out of the list below since he’s projected to break camp with a rotation spot.

After going 49-for-49 in save chances last season, Jose Valverde enters 2012 with one of the most secure closing jobs in the league. Some would caution he’s not as good as those save totals indicate (and I would be inclined to agree), but if he’s healthy, he’s Detroit’s closer.

Detroit Tigers Top 5 Minor League Prospects for Fantasy Baseball

1. Drew Smyly, SP

Smyly is a control-first left-hander, but he’s also struck out over a batter an inning in his short minor league career. The Tigers tend to be pretty aggressive with their pitching prospects (just ask Porcello and Turner), so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that we see Smyly this season. Assuming Turner graduates to the big club out of spring training, Smyly would be the team’s top rated minor league pitcher according to Baseball America, and I always give a prospect with great control rates a chance because they’re already making things easier for themselves by not issuing free passes.

2. Adam Wilk, SP

Wilk doesn’t rate near the top of many people’s prospect lists, but he has great control (Baseball America rated his the best control in the Detroit system) and he’s already debuted with the Tigers (5.40 ERA in 13 1/3 innings last season). There are definitely more talented pitchers for the Tigers to choose from, but almost all of them walk too many people to be effective this early in their careers. I doubt Wilk will ever be a standout if given an opportunity, but I think he has a great chance to be a serviceable spot starter for your fantasy team.

3. Matt Young, OF

Young is 29 years old and didn’t get his first taste of big league ball until last season with the Braves, but Detroit’s minor league system is almost completely devoid of major league-ready outfield prospects. There are other outfielders the Tigers may turn to first — Clete Thomas and Eric Patterson for example — but Young is the only one that qualifies as a “prospect.” And you know what? Young could actually have value. I love his walk and strikeout rates, almost one-to-one actually, and he’s stolen 30-plus bases three times in the minors. Call me crazy, but I think Young could bat near .280 and be a baserunning threat if he gets playing time.

4. Andrew Oliver, SP

Oliver has major league experience, but I’m not his biggest fan. The Tigers pushed the 2010 second round draft pick to the majors after just 23 minor league starts in 2010, but neither of Oliver’s two big league stints has gone particularly well (6.32 ERA in 33 1/3 major league innings). Admittedly, the sample size is small. I’m not a fan of Oliver from a fantasy perspective because his walk rate is so high, over 4.00 BB/9 in his minor league career, but Detroit clearly thinks he can be of use. I don’t think he’s ready to be a solid contributor, and that’s why he lands at number four.

5. Jamie Johnson, OF

Johnson was voted as having the best strike zone discipline by Baseball America, and that’s enough for me to rank him among the top five most fantasy relevant prospects in the Tigers’ system. His walk and strike out rates are impressive, and he played a full season at double-A last year. Johnson should be a high-OBP style player, and he has enough speed to steal at least 10-15 bases. That could mean a good number of runs in a strong Detroit offense.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #91: Adam Wainwright | SP | STL

By on February 2, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

At this time last year there were many people, myself included, touting Adam Wainwright as a top five starting pitcher and maybe the best pitcher overall. But that all changed when Wainwright walked off the mound one fateful February day last spring and baseball fans, Jonny Gomes aside, heard the two words they hate the most…Tommy. John. The good news, though, is that Tommy John surgery has a high recovery rate these days, and when Opening Day, 2012 rolls around, we will see the (likely) triumphant return of one of baseball’s best pitchers. You needn’t look any further than Wainwright’s stats pictured below, particularly his 2010 end-of-season rank. Wainwright had the surgery early enough in the offseason that he was able to start throwing with max effort in September. He even felt good enough to plead with the team to add him to the postseason roster, though they wisely declined. Losing Albert Pujols will hurt the Cardinals’ repeat chances, but adding a player of Wainwright’s caliber will lessen the blow.

Best case scenario: 160 innings of vintage Wainwright, which was equal to Zack Greinke’s (MIL) 2011 stats
Similar players: Stephen Strasburg (WAS), Josh Johnson (MIA), Greinke
Worst case scenario: Injuries/ineffectiveness lead to a top-200 caliber season

Strengths

W, K, ERA, WHIP…he’s just that good. There’s only one knock on Wainwright, which we’ll get to below. When he’s on the mound and he’s feeling right, he challenges Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, et al for the title of Game’s Best Pitcher.

Weaknesses

Injury, innings. This is the one knock. Maybe it’s two knocks, but they’re related so it’s more like one and a half. Wainwright is an unknown. We know who he was, but who is he now? Is he ready to be the elite starter he was in 2010? Will it take a month or two? Will he have the same kind of command? How much will the Cardinals monitor his innings? I feel great about Wainwright in 2013. In fact, I’d go so far as to proclaim him a top five starter in 2013 before 2012 even starts, but there are definitely questions about this season.

ADP Report (103.5)

Let’s play the game of “What If” that we played with Stephen Strasburg. What if Wainwright tosses just 160 innings similar to the production we saw in 2009 (2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)? He’d end with 13 wins, 146 strikeouts and, of course, a 2.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP (the ERA might be a little on the low side but the WHIP seems high so I think it evens out). That season would have ranked 114th last year. Given Wainwright’s upside, I’m willing to gamble on him as a top 100 player, making this ADP a good value.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Player Profile #92: Billy Butler | 1B/DH | KC

By on February 2, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Billy Butler might more aptly be named Billy Boring, but there’s something to be said for a player who bats .300 with moderate totals in everything else. Considering his ranks the past three seasons, never straying from the 85-92 range, it’s appropriate that we find Butler ranked a number 92 in our rankings. He’s an xBA outlier, likely due to his complete lack of speed since our equation does have a foot-speed component, but Butler is a career .297 hitter in the heart of what should be a good Kansas City lineup.

Best case scenario: Pablo Sandoval (SF)
Similar players: Eric Hosmer (KC), Carlos Lee (HOU), Jhonny Peralta (DET)
Worst case scenario: Gaby Sanchez (MIA)

Strengths

Home. Butler has a better career batting average at home, .314 to .279, which isn’t all that surprising. What is surprising is that in two of the last three seasons his home batting average has been almost 50 points higher or more.

Weaknesses

Position? Butler played and started just 11 games at first base last season. If your league’s eligibility requirements are stricter than this, Butler’s value takes a hit because he can only be started at utility.

ADP Report (122.7)

It’s not exciting to draft Butler, but given how deceptively shallow first base is (again, if he qualifies), this ADP is a steal. If Butler doesn’t qualify at first base in your league, he’s still someone I would take at 123rd overall, and probably a bit higher. You can see from both the chart above and the intro that Butler’s yearly numbers are very stable, so another repeat season seems like a logical conclusion.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • About BaseballProf
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Contact
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009