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Player Profile #1: Miguel Cabrera | 1B/3B | DET

By on March 8, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

I’m just going to go out and say it, there’s nothing wrong with Miguel Cabrera. First, he’s as consistent as they come having hit the .300-30-100 mark in five of his eight seasons. He’s also adding third base eligibility, which is always a boost to a player’s value. He’s proven that no matter the situation he can hit for an elite average, power and drive in a ton of runs and for that he’s an elite player worthy of a top-two draft pick. Did I mention that he’s only 29? Well, he’s only 29.

Best case scenario: Top first baseman
Similar players: Albert Pujols (LAA), Prince Fielder (DET), Joey Votto (CIN)
Worst case scenario: Finishes behind Pujols in ranks, but that’s about it

Strengths

Consistency. Cabrera is almost a carbon copy of Albert Pujols in terms of consistency, batting average and power (maybe slightly less power).

Weaknesses

None. Not a chink in his armor.

ADP Report (3.1)

It used to be if you don’t get Pujols you can always get Cabrera who is “Pujols light.” Now that they are on the same level, and Cabrera is three years younger, he seems like the better investment.

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Player Profile #2: Albert Pujols | 1B | LAA

By on March 8, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

What is there to say about Albert Pujols? For eleven seasons, he has been one of the best players in baseball and a quick exercise will show you just how good. Here are his career low’s in every standard offensive category: 99 runs, 32 home runs, 99 RBI, one steal, .299 batting average. Are you freaking kidding me? He’s also played in at least 143 games every season and those worried about his “down” season last year can look to his second half power numbers (19 home runs, .959 OPS in final 69 games).

Best case scenario: Top first baseman
Similar players: Prince Fielder (DET), Miguel Cabrera (DET), Joey Votto (CIN)
Worst case scenario: Evan Longoria (TB)

Strengths

Consistency. Anyone can put up a .310-110-34-115 season (OK, not anyone), but in Pujols’ 11-year career he’s put up that line or better in eight and the other three weren’t that far off.

Weaknesses

Age? He’s 32 (as far as we know), but that should only worry you in keeper leagues and even then he should have at least four great years left in him.

ADP Report (3.3)

Pujols is one of the most low-risk picks you can have in the draft. The fact that you’d have to take him in the top-three and he’s still low risk means he’s just that damn good.

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Player Profile #3: Matt Kemp | OF | LAD

By on March 8, 2012 | Comments { 2 }

Matt Kemp had a career worst season in 2010, but came back in a big way in 2011. While he didn’t win the NL MVP reward (although maybe he should have) he can take consolation that he was fantasy baseball’s MVP. He comes into this season as our top outfielder and many people’s top overall pick. The combination of home runs and steals is very rare in a player and he says he’s aiming for a 50/50 season. Remember when we all thought he was crazy when he predicted a 40/40 season two years ago?

Best case scenario: Top outfielder
Similar players: Ian Kinsler (TEX) with a better BA, Curtis Granderson (NYY) with a better BA, Ryan Braun (MIL) with a worse BA
Worst case scenario: He gets back together with Rhianna

Strengths

Power/speed, all counting stats, walks.  Kemp can easily rank among the top-five across all positions in every offensive category in standard leagues and that kind of upside is very rare. He improved on his plate discipline last season as his walk percentage rose almost three percentage points.

Weaknesses

Contact. This tends to be true with most elite power hitters, but Kemp’s approach at the plate leads to a lot of swings and misses. His O-Swing% (32.9), Contact% (73.3) and SwStr% (12.8) are all worse than the league averages and pose a threat to him repeating a season like 2011. Last year was the first time Kemp posted a GB/FB ratio under one (which is crucial to hit a lot of home runs) so it would be nice if he put more balls in play.

ADP Report (2.0)

Kemp is the public’s consensus number one pick, but I’m a little hesitant to put him over perennial juggernauts Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols. Sure Kemp can match them at every category and then obliterates them in steals, but he’s the only player of the three to have a below-average season. Hey, when you get this high you have to pick nits.

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Player Profile #4: Troy Tulowitzki | SS | COL

By on March 5, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Knock Troy Tulowitzki for his injuries, but he’s proven that he’s the game’s best shortstop. Sure he may not steal as many bases as he used to, but when he chooses to run he usually succeeds (80% success rate). Last year he cut down his swinging strike percentage (4.5%) for the third straight season and he continues to draw walks at an above average rate (9.7 BB%). Over the last three seasons, Tulowitzki has averaged 90 runs, 30 home runs and 97 RBI with a .304 batting average. Those are numbers you usually find at first or third base so that’s not too shabby for a shortstop.

Best case scenario: Top-ranked shortstop
Similar players: Robinson Cano (NYY), Evan Longoria (TB), Joey Votto (CIN)
Worst case scenario: Gets injured

Strengths

Home park, power, batting average, improved contact. Along with the rare power, he has a great home field advantage as his three-year slash at Coors Field is an impressive .324/.395/.597. He’s also been improving his contact throughout his career and posted a career high 88.5 percent rate last year.

Weaknesses

Injuries. He’s made three DL trips in his six-year career so it’s not crazy to think he could find himself back on “the list.”

ADP Report (5.2)

As long as he can stay healthy, Tulowitzki can easily put up numbers you normally see from a first baseman. Given that he plays the most shallow position known in the game he is most definitely involved in the conversation for the top overall pick.

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Player Profile #5: Jose Bautista | 3B/OF | TOR

By on March 3, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Jose Bautista‘s calling card is his power. If his 2012 season looks like the second half of 2011, Bautista owners will be in trouble. The slugger exploded for 31 homers in 299 at-bats before the trade deadline but stumbled to just 12 in 219 at-bats after. Does this have anything to do with Toronto’s Man in White? I won’t say yes or no, but the home/road splits for a number of prominent Blue Jays are pretty telling (though, admittedly, Bautista’s were pretty even last year). Third base got very deep all of a sudden, and my guess is anyone who owns Bautista will end up playing him in the outfield.

Best case scenario: 2011 with a lower BA
Similar players: Curtis Granderson (NYY), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Prince Fielder (DET)
Worst case scenario: Mike Stanton (MIA)

Strengths

HR, R, RBI, OBP, home. Most people seem to overlook how good Toronto’s offense is, but they finished sixth in the league in runs scored last season and have some fearsome hitters at the core of their lineup. That means Bautista’s 35-45 homers will inflict some damage, and he should post elite run and RBI totals again. Bautista has always walked a moderate amount, but last year he walked once every five plate appearances. That’s ridiculous.

Weaknesses

BA. Sorry, but I think Bautista will revert to his .260s ways before we see another .300 season. Last year his xBA was .287, but much of that was due to his crazy 20 percent walk rate. Assuming that regresses a little, it’ll take a moderately lucky season for him to approach that .287 average again. Last year he batted .257 after the break.

ADP Report (5.0)

I used to think Bautista was a candidate to be picked first overall, but with the expected depth at third base I’d rather look elsewhere. Adrian Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jacoby Ellsbury and Justin Upton are all players I’d pick before Bautista, who I think is better served going in the eight to 12 range.

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Player Profile #6: Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | BOS

By on March 3, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

It was a trade almost a year in the making, but the Boston Red Sox finally acquired Adrian Gonzalez and the two proved to be a match made in heaven. Gonzalez used his sweet swing to pepper the Green Monster, and the result was a career-best .338 average. Of course, that .338 mark was lucky by almost any metric — Gonzalez had just a .307 xBA and needed a .380 BABIP to do it — but no one can doubt how great that ballpark and lineup is for him. More homers are a given after A-Gon waited until May 3 to hit his second dinger of the 2011 season, but the runs and RBI will be there in droves.

Best case scenario: Miguel Cabrera (DET)
Similar players: Robinson Cano (NYY), Joey Votto (CIN), Troy Tulowitzki (COL)
Worst case scenario: Prince Fielder (DET)

Strengths

BA, R, RBI, OBP, home. Gonzalez’s BA, R and RBI are all intertwined. With a stacked lineup featuring Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz, it’ll be a  minor miracle if Gonzalez doesn’t score 100 runs with over 1oo RBI. He’s also a great OBP performer, and it’s not just because he has such a high average; he walks over 10 percent of the time. It’s also possible that .380 BABIP wasn’t that lucky. It doesn’t take much to poke one off the Green Monster, and Gonzalez made a living doing that. He could sustain BABIPs of .350-plus given his .320-.340 marks in San Diego.

Weaknesses

SB. Even when you dig into Gonzalez’s split stats, it’s almost impossible to find a weakness. His power isn’t elite, but I’m not calling 30-plus homers a weakness, so that just leaves the steals. They’re what prevent him from being a consensus first overall draft pick.

ADP Report (10.0)

Gonzalez finished ninth overall last year and hit just 27 homers, a total I expect to rise to the mid-30s. His average will probably go down, but .320-plus is a possibility given the effect the Green Monster has (I may have mentioned this already), which means we could be looking at a top-five season. I love this ADP.

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Player Profile #7: Justin Upton | OF | ARI

By on March 3, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

When a player comes up as young as Justin Upton did, it’s easy to forget just how young they are four seasons later. He’s still only 24, yet already has two top-40 PSR rankings on his resume. In 2011, he put up career-bests in all counting categories, but also in ISO (.240), Contact% (78.7) and OBP (.369). He’s still in the “improving” stage of his career (a scary thought) and possess the raw power capable of hitting the third longest home run in 2011. He’s a future MVP on the verge of breaking out in a big way.

Best case scenario: Top-three outfielder
Similar players: Matt Kemp (LAD) with fewer SB, Ryan Braun (MIL) with a lower BA, Curtis Granderson (NYY) with a better BA
Worst case scenario: I guess 2011 again?

Strengths

Power/speed, home park. He’s already a perennial 30/20 threat at the age of 24 so there are definite long-term hopes of possibly hitting 40/20 for a season or two. Upton also has the benefit of hitting at Chase Field where he has a .932 OPS over the last three seasons (.805 OPS on road).

Weaknesses

Injuries. He missed time in both 2009 an 2010 because of injuries to his oblique. Of course, we didn’t see any lingering effects of the injury last year, but it’s something to be aware of.

ADP Report (9.1)

It’s a scary thought that Upton is as good as he is at this age. He’s the youngest player in the top 10 and he looks like he’s on the verge of an MVP-caliber season. You don’t want to miss out on that.

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