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#20: Who’s the better bet, Cespedes or Harper?

By on March 23, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

The question was originally which prospect not named Matt Moore (TB), Mike Trout (LAA), Julio Teheran (ATL), Drew Pomeranz (COL) and Brandon Belt (SF) will have an immediate impact on Opening Day, but we all know there are two polarizing prospects for 2012 — Bryce Harper and Yoenis Cespedes.

The question is, who will have the better 2012 season? Let’s break it down.

We’ll start with Cespedes, a Cuban defect, who will start in center field for the Athletics on opening day. At 26, the A’s have no reason to have him peddle around the minors while he tries to figure out how to hit “American” pitching — especially when they are paying him $36 million over four years. But even if he plays a full season, what can we expect?

We’ve all seen the YouTube highlight reel that many scouts have been drooling over. The kid generates a lot of power with his thick build and is surprisingly athletic for his size. It’s not crazy to think that he has 25 home runs in him and if he can tack on15 steals that would add a lot to his value. Now for the downside — his batting average.

Scouts have claimed that Cespedes’ swing is on the long side and also there will be an adjustment as he will probably see a steady diet of breaking pitches. The one thing I will preach about Cespedes, if you choose to go with him, is to practice patience. He won’t come out and dominate right away, but with his experience (he’s 27) and apparent skill level his adjustment period shouldn’t be long. Also, the A’s aren’t going anywhere this season so they have no reason to send him down to “work things out.”

In Harper’s case, the immediate playing time is more in question. At 19 years old, th Nationals are definitely worried about starting his arbitration clock so I can almost guarantee that Harper won’t be up until at least he’s no longer eligible for Super Two status. Would the Nationals rather have a little over a month of 19-year old Harper or a full season of a 25-year-old Harper? It’s a no-brainer.

The Nationals have also put themselves in a position to compete in 2012 and if Harper is in an adjustment period, there’s more incentive for them to keep him in the minors until he’s ready. Unlike in Oakland where if Cespedes is struggling he’s only hurting the A’s alreay non-existent playoff hopes.

Harper brings the same kind of potential as Cespedes in terms of power and speed, but he also probably has more batting average upside and has shown great patience at the plate in the minors.

If you’re looking for a safe pick with some upside in 2012, go with Cespedes as he’s sure to get a full season’s worth of at-bats. Harper has the potential to be  a more well-rounded player than Cespedes, but for 2012 purposes he has more risk in terms of playing time.

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#12: How should we feel about Alex Rios?

By on March 22, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

Karl de Vries is a reporter and web producer for Newsday. He’s a lifelong Mets fan and fantasy fanatic who operates RotoDiamond, a fantasy baseball blog. If you’ve never heard of RotoDiamond, we highly suggest adding it to your fantasy repertoire. Due to the high quality of Karl’s work, we’ve asked him to contribute posts to Baseball Professor. It took some begging and pleading (kidding!) but Karl agreed to share his wisdom with us. You can email him at karl.rotodiamond@gmail.com with questions, comments or lewd pictures, though we wouldn’t recommend the latter.

Poor Alex Rios.

OK, so I don’t really mean that. Everyone should be so lucky as to get paid millions of dollars to play a children’s game for a living, and besides, the little I know about Rios makes me think he’s not the most cool-headed guy in the sport.

Still, he had a rough go of it in 2011. He finished with a .227/.265/.348 line, halved his RBI total from 2010 and posted just 11 steals, all while his walk rate fell to a career-worst 4.7 percent.

The result? A 31-year-old outfielder capable of putting up a 20-20 season has fallen to a 216 ADP this year — and he’s not even being drafted in 15 percent of mixed leagues.

As someone who used to bet on Rios to emerge as an elite outfielder, I’m not here to vouch for him as some kind of obligated sponsor. But I’d still be willing to give him a chance as a No. 3 starter if I could unearth enough evidence that he’s ready to return to his All-Star upside.

Was he hurt? Rios still appeared in 145 games and made 570 plate appearances, so if something was ailing him, it didn’t stop him from showing up for work. Instead, he was probably just a victim of some bad luck, judging by his .237 BABIP and 7 percent HR/FB rate.

He was also miscast by manager Ozzie Guillen as a power hitter. In posting one of the best seasons of his career two years ago, Rios was used almost exclusively out of the 3-hole, by far the spot where he’s spent the most time over his career. Contrast that with last year, when he made only 27 plate appearances out of that spot in the order, instead shuttling between the fifth and sixth spots.

So it’s probably not a bad thing that new skipper Robin Ventura has gone ahead and is plugging Rios back into his old spot in the order. It might also help that Ventura is shifting Rios from center back to his old position in right field.

Obviously, a manager — and new hitting coach — can only do so much, as a player’s desire to improve is ultimately what determines success. That’s why it’s encouraging that Rios, who arrived at camp four days ahead of schedule, is so far keeping an open mind about adjusting his swing.

It also stands to reason that the ChiSox will put up a better lineup this year. For one thing, Adam Dunn can only improve over this horrific 2011 season, I’m a fan of Dayan Viciedo and Alejandro De Aza and hope always springs eternal for Gordon Beckham to rekindle the magic that made him one of the hottest young players entering the 2010 season.

And even if I wasn’t optimistic, Rios’ track record — you know, the one where he averaged .284 with 19 home runs, 24 steals and 81 RBIs from 2006 to 2010 — suggests 2011 was an exception to the norm. And even with last year’s misery, Rios posted by far the best strikeout rate of his career and best line drive rate since 2008.

Sure, I’d prefer Rios to be off to a faster start this spring, but considering the meaninglessness of March’s numbers, I’m not going to fret. Instead, I’m going to reach out here and say Rios is worth drafting in all leagues — especially those populated with near-sighted owners — as a solid No. 3 outfielder with significant upside.

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#72: Team Desmond Jennings or Team Mike Trout for 2012?

By on March 9, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

Karl de Vries is a reporter and web producer for Newsday. He’s a lifelong Mets fan and fantasy fanatic who operates RotoDiamond, a fantasy baseball blog. If you’ve never heard of RotoDiamond, we highly suggest adding it to your fantasy repertoire. Due to the high quality of Karl’s work, we’ve asked him to contribute posts to Baseball Professor. It took some begging and pleading (kidding!) but Karl agreed to share his wisdom with us. You can email him at karl.rotodiamond@gmail.com with questions, comments or lewd pictures, though we wouldn’t recommend the latter.

For owners in AL-only leagues, 2012 is shaping up to be a story of the rich getting richer.

Consider: A bumper crop of Dustin Ackley, Jason Kipnis and Jemile Weeks promises to make second base as deep as in recent memory. At catcher, Chris Iannetta has joined the Angels, Salvador Perez could make noise in Kansas City and Jesus Montero will provide fantasy owners with a full season.

And don’t even get me started on first base, where the defections of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder have plundered the National League’s talent at what’s typically a deep position.

But perhaps none of these players have the intrigue of the junior circuit’s newest outfield studs, Desmond Jennings and Mike Trout. Of course, with such a plethora of options comes the hard part: deciding which player is better.

The obvious: between the two, only Jennings is currently assured a full-time job entering 2012. Vernon Wells’ contract demands he start in left field, Torii Hunter, even at age 36, is too productive to sit and Peter Bourjos offers quality defense in center field.

Beyond those three, Bobby Abreu is still with the team, Rookie of the Year runner-up Mark Trumbo needs a spot in the lineup and Kendrys Morales is supposedly rejoining the club this year, so unless some trades are made, they could conspire to keep the DH spot clogged throughout the season.

Even if the Angels’ outfield wasn’t stuffed to capacity, it’s questionable whether GM Jerry Dipoto would hand Trout a starting job after the 20-year-old’s two ugly major league stints last year. Posting a combined .220/.281/.390 line with five home runs in 135 plate appearances in the season’s second half, Trout was clearly overwhelmed, and by the end of the season, was mostly limited to starting only against left-handed pitchers.

Dipoto has already gone on record saying Trout will spend the beginning of 2012 in the minors, where he’ll likely get his first taste of Triple-A pitching. But while it stands to reason that Trout will return to the majors in 2012, he won’t do so as a part-time player, meaning the Angels will first have to start clearing away bodies to make room for the young phenom.

So that leaves the 25-year-old Jennings, whose .259/.356/.449 line in 287 plate appearances was particularly promising given his 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

The batting average leaves a little to be desired, and skeptical fantasy owners are no doubt drawn to the 20.6 strikeout rate. But we’re talking about someone who maintained a .294 mark in more than 2,200 minor league plate appearances against a very encouraging 14.3 strikeout rate. And if you’re not excited about a rookie who last year posted a nearly 11 percent walk rate in an extended major league sample size, something’s wrong.

But it wasn’t just that Jennings held his own at the MLB level; it’s the blossoming maturity you gotta adore. A .361 wOBA proves he’s not just a singles hitter, and he was able to flourish despite a ho-hum .303 BABIP, a number that’s sure to climb given his speed.

So take all that and put him back at the top of Tampa Bay’s lineup, where he’ll be backed up by B.J. Upton, a sure-to-rebound Evan Longoria, a returning Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist. In a sense, it’s a perfect lineup for him: even Upton’s inability to make consistent contact should benefit Jennings’ stolen base numbers.

So yeah, Jennings has a significant edge over Trout fantasy-wise in 2012, due to his experience, ability to succeed at the MLB level and a clear job opportunity waiting for him. Head-to-head, it’s a bit more difficult to decide; Trout has long been considered one of the best prospects in baseball, destroyed Double-A pitching last year and projects as a terrific all-around player.

More specifically, Trout has posted a 16 percent strikeout rate and stole 33 bases last season, part of a complete package that will make him the marvel of fantasy rosters in upcoming years. And one imagines the AL East’s pitching will remain top-notch in the years to come — heck, even Baltimore’s staff will give teams problems soon enough.

Obviously, this comparison could change in a hurry depending on when Trout comes up, as he, like Jennings, will have a capable supporting cast. But regardless of what happens, it’s almost certain Jennings will be a greater contributor to fantasy owners in 2012 — just make sure Trout’s on your team as your draft moves into its later rounds.

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#61: Will J.P. Arencibia improve upon his .219 average?

By on March 8, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Karl de Vries is a web producer for Newsday. He’s a lifelong Mets fan and fantasy fanatic who operates RotoDiamond, a fantasy baseball blog. If you’ve never heard of RotoDiamond, we highly suggest adding it to your fantasy repertoire. Due to the high quality of Karl’s work, we’ve asked him to contribute posts to Baseball Professor. It took some begging and pleading (kidding!) but Karl agreed to share his wisdom with us. You can email him at karl.rotodiamond@gmail.com with questions, comments or lewd pictures, though we wouldn’t recommend the latter.

Here’s a good trivia question: Which player last year finished fourth in home runs but second-to-last in FanGraphs WAR among catchers with a minimum of 400 plate appearances?

Not much drama here: it was Blue Jays backstop J.P. Arencibia, owner of 23 home runs and a .219 batting average. Coupled with dismal fielding grades from FanGraphs, he tallied a measly 0.9 WAR, just edging out Miguel Olivo for 18th in player value among qualifiers.

That’s a shame, since there aren’t too many places to find that kind of power behind the plate. Question is, can Arencibia lift his average enough in 2012 to balance out his fantasy profile?

Short answer: he can’t get much worse. Arencibia, 26, added 78 RBIs to go along with his nearly two dozen dingers in his rookie year, and was able to spread out his production over the course of the season, never slamming less than three home runs in any given month.

That follows a minor league career in which he terrorized pitchers to the tune of 83 home runs in four seasons, compiling a solid .275/.319/.507 line that was backed up by a .303 BABIP. True, he had the fortune of playing two years in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but so what? Hitting is hitting, and even if Arencibia still struck out at a more than a 20 percent pace, it’s not like he was a junior Dave Kingman down on the farm.

That changed in 2011. Whiffing at a 27.4 percent rate, Arencibia’s strikeout regularity placed him sixth among players with 400 or more plate appearances, and his 7.4 percent walk rate was not nearly enough to hoist his on-base percentage past .282.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Arencibia’s fortunes last year changed as the season went along — and American League pitchers became more familiar with him. In the season’s first two months, Arencibia hit .258 along with eight home runs and 26 RBIs. But he hit only .198 the rest of the way, despite retaining his grip on the number-one catching job.

What, exactly, changed? PITCHf/x data compiled by Texas Leaguers shows pitchers started feeding Arencibia a steady diet of sliders, accounting for more than 20 percent of the pitches he saw from June 1st onward. For a pull-hitter with a taste for hitting home runs, that resulted in a lot of groundouts to shortstop and harmless fly balls out to left field, evidenced by the spray chart below:

Texas Leaguers

 (click on image to enlarge)

He’s young, so one expects the adjustments to come. But will his luck change? Arencibia did, after all, compile a very soft .255 BABIP last year, which pretty much made it impossible for him to achieve a respectable batting average. Then again, his road BABIP was a reasonable .298, and yet, he was only able to hit .237 outside of Toronto.

Assuming a few more balls fall in for the catcher this year, the average will rise, and even if he’ll never be confused with Joe Mauer, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to expect him to put up at least a .230-.240 mark — not great, of course, but perhaps not so bad as to completely eliminate his power value.

Currently being drafted as the 10th catcher with a 179 average draft position, he’s still being valued way too high for my taste, since I’d rather roll the dice on much cheaper upside guys like Wilson Ramos, Salvador Perez and Devin Mesoraco, each of whom could put up similar overall fantasy value to Arencibia.

So while the Blue Jays don’t yet have a premier catcher, they certainly have someone who will have fantasy impact in the years to come. And besides, even if the whole baseball thing doesn’t work out, Arencibia’s other talents could still land him work.

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#72: Mike Trout or Desmond Jennings?

By on February 25, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Karl de Vries is a reporter and web producer for The Star-Ledger of Newark, NJ. He’s a lifelong Mets fan and fantasy fanatic who operates RotoDiamond, a fantasy baseball blog. If you’ve never heard of RotoDiamond, we highly suggest adding it to your fantasy repertoire. Due to the high quality of Karl’s work, we’ve asked him to contribute posts to Baseball Professor. It took some begging and pleading (kidding!) but Karl agreed to share his wisdom with us. You can email him at karl.rotodiamond@gmail.com with questions, comments or lewd pictures, though we wouldn’t recommend the latter.

For owners in AL-only leagues, 2012 is shaping up to be a story of the rich getting richer.

Consider: A bumper crop of Dustin Ackley, Jason Kipnis and Jemile Weeks promises to make second base as deep as in recent memory. At catcher, Chris Iannetta has joined the Angels, Salvador Perez could make noise in Kansas City and Jesus Montero will provide fantasy owners with a full season.

And don’t even get me started on first base, where the defections of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder have plundered the National League’s talent at what’s typically a deep position.

But perhaps none of these players have the intrigue of the junior circuit’s newest outfield studs, Desmond Jennings and Mike Trout. Of course, with such a plethora of options comes the hard part: deciding which player is better.

The obvious: between the two, only Jennings is currently assured a full-time job entering 2012. Vernon Wells’ contract demands he start in left field, Torii Hunter, even at age 36, is too productive to sit and Peter Bourjos offers quality defense in center field.

Beyond those three, Bobby Abreu is still with the team (though reportedly requesting a trade), Rookie of the Year runner-up Mark Trumbo needs a spot in the lineup and Kendrys Morales is supposedly rejoining the club this year, so unless some trades are made, they could conspire to keep the DH spot clogged throughout the season.

Even if the Angels’ outfield wasn’t stuffed to capacity, it’s questionable whether GM Jerry Dipoto would hand Trout a starting job after the 20-year-old’s two ugly major league stints last year. Posting a combined .220/.281/.390 line with five home runs in 135 plate appearances in the season’s second half, Trout was clearly overwhelmed, and by the end of the season, was mostly limited to starting only against left-handed pitchers.

Dipoto has already gone on record saying Trout will spend the beginning of 2012 in the minors, where he’ll likely get his first taste of Triple-A pitching. But while it stands to reason that Trout will return to the majors in 2012, he won’t do so as a part-time player, meaning the Angels will first have to start clearing away bodies to make room for the young phenom.

So that leaves the 25-year-old Jennings, whose .259/.356/.449 line in 287 plate appearances was particularly promising given his 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

The batting average leaves a little to be desired, and skeptical fantasy owners are no doubt drawn to the 20.6 strikeout rate. But we’re talking about someone who maintained a .294 mark in more than 2,200 minor league plate appearances against a very encouraging 14.3 strikeout rate. And if you’re not excited about a rookie who last year posted a nearly 11 percent walk rate in an extended major league sample size, something’s wrong.

But it wasn’t just that Jennings held his own at the MLB level; it’s the blossoming maturity you gotta adore. A .361 wOBA proves he’s not just a singles hitter, and he was able to flourish despite a ho-hum .303 BABIP, a number that’s sure to climb given his speed.

So take all that and put him back at the top of Tampa Bay’s lineup, where he’ll be backed up by B.J. Upton, a sure-to-rebound Evan Longoria, a returning Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist. In a sense, it’s a perfect lineup for him: even Upton’s inability to make consistent contact should benefit Jennings’ stolen base numbers.

So yeah, Jennings has a significant edge over Trout fantasy-wise in 2012, due to his experience, ability to succeed at the MLB level and a clear job opportunity waiting for him. Head-to-head, it’s a bit more difficult to decide; Trout has long been considered one of the best prospects in baseball, destroyed Double-A pitching last year and projects as a terrific all-around player.

More specifically, Trout has posted a 16 percent strikeout rate and stole 33 bases last season, part of a complete package that will make him the marvel of fantasy rosters in upcoming years. And one imagines the AL East’s pitching will remain top-notch in the years to come — heck, even Baltimore’s staff will give teams problems soon enough.

Obviously, this comparison could change in a hurry depending on when Trout comes up, as he, like Jennings, will have a capable supporting cast. But regardless of what happens, it’s almost certain Jennings will be a greater contributor to fantasy owners in 2012 — just make sure Trout’s on your team as your draft moves into its later rounds.

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#82: When should you draft Cory Luebke?

By on February 16, 2012 | Comments { 4 }

When I added this question to our list of the  Top 100 Offseason Questions last fall, I thought it would be a subtle way of suggesting you target Cory Luebke as a fantasy sleeper. I definitely did not expect him to have an ADP of 137 (the 39th starting pitcher off the board), right around more established or well-known options such as Tim Hudson, Jeremy Hellickson, Shaun Marcum, Chris Carpenter and Anibal Sanchez. But, as pitchers and catchers are preparing to report, that’s exactly where we find Luebke. Perhaps his rising draft stock makes this question even more important. When should you draft Luebke?

That depends on how we project him. There are a few things we know about Luebke that pertain to his 2012 season:

  • He won’t win a lot of games pitching for the Padres
  • He pitches in a pitcher-friendly park
  • He has elite strikeout potential, fanning 9.72 batters per nine innings in 116 1/3 career innings as a starter
  • He has a career 1.13 WHIP as a starter, fueled by a .226 OBA (product of a respectable .282 BABIP)
  • He has never topped the 139 2/3 innings he threw last season
  • He will be 27 years old in March

Adjusting for the grind of a full season, something Luebke hasn’t really experienced, we could reasonably expect a WHIP in the 1.15-1.20 range and a strikeout rate over 8.00 K/9. Let’s also say he throws 175-190 innings, about 35-50 more than last year (this isn’t an unreasonable total for a young starter because, in reality, Luebke isn’t that young).

Tim Stauffer won nine games for the Padres last year, throwing 185 2/3 innings with a 3.73 ERA. Clayton Richard won five games in a half-season of work (99 2/3 innings, 2.88 ERA). San Diego hasn’t really improved much, so it would be reasonable to expect Luebke to win games at the same rate assuming he finishes with a similar ERA to Stauffer and Richards’ high-3.00 marks. Given the success he’s had in the majors thus far and his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio, I’d be surprised if Luebke’s ERA approaches 4.00.

That gives us 9-11 wins with a 3.20-3.50 ERA (in my estimation), 1.15-1.20 WHIP and 160-190 strikeouts depending on how high his strikeout rate is and how many innings he throws (160 Ks would be an 8.00 K/9 over 175 innings, 190 Ks would be a 9.00 K/9 over 190 innings).

How do those high- and low-end projections rank at the position? The nine wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 160 strikeouts yields a PSR of 1.50, which would have ranked 48th among all starting pitchers last season (interestingly, one spot ahead of Sanchez, the man who Luebke is getting drafted right behind in mid-February mocks). The 11 wins, 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 190 strikeouts would yield a PSR of 3.61, which would have ranked 25th among all starters last season.

So, at worst, Luebke ranks as the 48th-best starting pitcher, and in a reasonable best case scenario he barely cracks the top 25. Is that worth drafting as the 39th starter? Definitely, but should you reach any higher on Luebke?

Here’s a shortlist of pitchers currently getting drafted before Luebke that I would take after the Padres’ starter:

  • Jonny Cueto
  • Matt Garza
  • Hellickson

That’s about it. I wouldn’t take Luebke over Brandon Beachy. I wouldn’t take him over Jordan Zimmermann. I wouldn’t take him over Matt Moore, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright or Michael Pineda. Yu Darvish and Gio Gonzalez are close, but I still think I’d take those two over Luebke.

That makes Luebke the 36th starting pitcher off my personal draft board. According to Mock Draft Central, the pitcher getting drafted 36th at the position is Carpenter with an ADP of 125. That makes Luebke a 10th-13th round pick depending on how deep your league is, and likely makes him a low-end number three or a solid number four for most fantasy rotations.

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#28: Will Ryan Vogelsong repeat?

By on February 13, 2012 | Comments { 4 }

If you saw Ryan Vogelsong winning 13 games in his first MLB season since 2006, then you should have my job…except I don’t really get paid, so I don’t think I can really call it a job. You can have my hobby.

Regardless, I’m guessing you’re as surprised as I am that Vogelsong had as productive a season as he did. He was so much better than he’d ever been that we can’t even call it a throwback season, and like I say here somewhat frequently, I’m pretty sure the only person who thought Vogelsong was capable of being among the league leaders in ERA was his mom.

But I’m also guessing the Vogel-momma doesn’t play fantasy baseball, which means her son’s success doesn’t really impact her in any tangible way (unless Vogelsong plans on putting her in a retirement home in her waning years — then she actually does have a vested interest). But if you’re like me and you’ve got money riding on your fantasy season, then you really want to know if Vogelsong is someone you can count on in 2012. Thankfully, that’s what question 28 in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series asks.

First, let’s get the basic stats, peripherals and advanced metrics out of the way:

The first thing we need to look at is Vogelsong’s ERA/FIP/xFIP relationship, and his 2.71 ERA is almost a full run lower than his FIP. This is the most concerning stat above. FIP accurately shows how much we should adjust his ERA due to an unusually low BABIP (.280) and an unusually high strand rate (80.4%). Because Vogelsong plays his home games (and a lot of his road games by virtue of his division) in some of the league’s more pitcher-friendly parks, it’s not surprising that his FIP is lower than his xFIP (because, as you know, xFIP normalizes for a league-average HR/FB rate).

The easy thing to do is to project Vogelsong’s 2011 FIP (3.67) as his 2012 ERA. Before we do that, maybe we can uncover something by looking at his month-by-month stats!

Vogelsong posted his best strikeout and walk rates of any month in April, but it should be noted that these April rates came in just 10 1/3 innings. What is of particular note is how his FIP rose each month until August as did his walk rate. Was that because hitters were finally seeing him a second or third time (remember, it was his first season in the majors since 2006) or was he just wearing down as the season wore on? I’ll rule out the latter because Vogelsong had his best full month in September, posting a 3.30 FIP with 1.93 BB/9, and actually saw his velocity rise ever-so-slightly as the Giants’ hopes began to fade.

Looking at his PitchFX numbers, including start-by-start velocity, pitch selection and pitch movement data, there’s only one noticeable change I can see: Vogelsong dramatically upped his slider usage in his last 11 starts. What’s interesting, though, is that Vogelsong’s slider was his worst pitch last season, valuing at 2.04 runs below average per 100 sliders thrown.

Please know that at this point I’m starting to get very frustrated. Vogelsong’s 2011 season is just one giant corn maze. Every time I think I’ve found the key to understanding his monthly trends, it turns out to be a dead end. Maybe Vogelsong’s slider was actually really good in the last month of the season and his -2.04 pitch value doesn’t accurately show how effective the pitch was, but I can’t find the data to actually find out if this is true. The closest I could get is looking at his start-by-start slider movement, which actually does reveal something useful.

Source: Fangraphs.com (click to enlarge)

The black line I drew on the chart separates Vogelsong’s last 11 starts from the rest of his season, and his horizontal slider movement is illustrated with the red line. It’s subtle, but it looks to me that his slider had a great deal more consistency in his last 11 starts than it did during the rest of the season. Perhaps this is why he began using it more, and perhaps it actually was an effective pitch during that 11-start span. Considering those 11 starts make up about a third of his season and they occurred at the end of the year, I’m optimistic that Vogelsong can carry that success into 2012.

But I’m not optimistic enough to project a drastic improvement in his FIP. It’s boring, but I’m going to project Vogelsong for a 3.60 ERA this season but with a slightly higher strikeout rate of 7.25 (given his strikeout rates in three of the last four months). He’ll start the season in the San Francisco rotation as opposed to triple-A, which he did last season, so he’ll come closer to 200 innings pitched.

For 2012 I’m projecting Vogelsong for 12 wins, a 3.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 153 strikeouts in 190 innings. Those numbers would yield a PSR of 1.36, lower than last season’s 2.70. That PSR would have ranked him 183rd overall last season, lower than his 116 rank last year, and make him a borderline top-50 starting pitcher.

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