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2009 In Review: Third Base

By on December 30, 2009 | Comments { 3 }

As it turns out, I was on the road all day yesterday picking up my car which had broken down in New Jersey last week. Merry Christmas to me. Unfortunately this prevented me from taking a look back at third base as I had planned, but don’t fret! Today you get another double-dose of 2009 recaps with both third base and outfield, but before we move on, let’s not forget how get got here:

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Outfield
Pitchers

What a crazy year we saw at third base. The consensus preseason top two (Alex Rodriguez and David Wright) barely clung onto top 10 status, and three of the top five could legitimately have their success referred to as a nice surprise. Don’t take my word for it. Have a look for yourself.

PSRPlayerRHRRBISBAVG
13.57Reynolds, Mark984410224.260
11.05Longoria, Evan100331139.281
11.01Cabrera, Miguel96341036.324
10.94Zimmerman, Ryan112331072.293
10.04Figgins, Chone11455542.298
9.74Youkilis, Kevin9927947.305
9.33Rodriguez, Alex783010014.286
8.81Sandoval, Pablo7925905.330
8.10Wright, David88107227.307
6.68Young, Michael7622688.322
4.32Cantu, Jorge67161003.289
4.02Blake, Casey8418793.280
3.91Kennedy, Adam65116320.289
3.21Rolen, Scott7611675.305
2.74DeRosa, Mark7823783.250
2.50Jones, Chipper8018714.264
1.99Inge, Brandon7127842.230
1.87Lowell, Mike5417752.290
1.86Ramirez, Aramis4615652.317
1.74Stewart, Ian7425707.228
1.70McGehee, Casey5816660.301
0.59Beckham, Gordon5814637.270
0.55Prado, Martin6411481.307
0.47Kouzmanoff, Kevin5018881.255
0.45Headley, Chase6212649.262
0.40Teahen, Mark6912508.271
0.26Uribe, Juan5016553.289
0.26Feliz, Pedro6212820.266
-0.68LaRoche, Andy6412643.258
-0.84Peralta, Jhonny5711830.254
-1.20Beltre, Adrian5484413.265
-1.65Bonifacio, Emilio7212721.252
-2.38Counsell, Craig614393.285
-2.47Hairston Jr., Jerry6210397.251
-3.67Mora, Melvin448483.260
-3.83Bautista, Jose5413404.235
-4.43Carroll, Jamey532264.276
-5.00Blum, Geoff3510490.249
-5.05Crede, Joe4215480.225
-5.20Harris, Brendan446370.261
-5.41Fox, Jake2311440.259
-5.40Fontenot, Mike389434.236
-5.88Baker, Jeff274241.288
-6.07Keppinger, Jeff367310.259
-6.12Encarnacion, Edwin3513392.225
-6.42Atkins, Garrett379480.226
-7.04Helms, Wes183331.271
-7.52Pena, Ramiro171104.287
-8.05Gordon, Alex286225.232
-8.16Ojeda, Augie381163.246
-8.15Crosby, Bobby356292.223
-8.38Fields, Josh297302.222
-8.47Vizquel, Omar171144.266
-8.74Tolbert, Matt282196.232
-8.80Hall, Bill328362.201
-9.10Dobbs, Greg155201.247
-9.38Thurston, Joe271254.225
-9.64Gamel, Mat115201.242
-10.15Loretta, Mark190251.233
-10.40Hannahan, Jack274191.213
-10.70Rosales, Adam234191.213

(use arrows to scroll)

MVP of 2009

Mark Reynolds (ARI) – It pains me to name a .260 hitter the position’s MVP, but the numbers don’t lie; Reynolds muscled 10 more HR than anyone else at the position, finished third in SB, fourth in RBI, and fifth in R. No other player at third base finished top five in more than three of those categories, so despite the shortcomings in the AVG department, he was still one of the most well-rounded players fielding the hot corner in 2009.

Honorable Mention: Evan Longoria (TB)

Comeback Player of 2009

Chone Figgins (LAA) – Remember how disappointing Figgins was in 2008? He only managed 453 AB, struggled to post a .276 AVG, and while you don’t draft him for his power numbers, he put up only 1 HR and 22 RBI. Twenty. Two. Needless to say, seasons like he had in 2009 are what made him one of the most exciting players to watch (and own) since he broke out in 2004. In fact, last year he had his best season as a professional, setting career marks in plate appearances (729), runs (114), doubles (30), walks (101), and OBP (.395). To illustrate how much he stepped up his game, consider that his previous career high in walks was only 65, and he also added five HR and 54 RBI to get back to that “respectable” threshold where he no longer kills you in power categories. As long as he’s scoring runs and stealing bases though, most people won’t care how many runs he drives in.

Honorable Mention: Adam Kennedy (OAK)

Breakout Player of 2009

Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – Let me preface this selection by saying this: Evan Longoria did not break out in 2009. He did that in 2008. If you look at his per-game averages, expected BABIP, HR/FB%, WAR/game, and many other stats, you’ll see he had a nearly identical season to the year before, the only difference being he played 35 more games in ’09. Zimmerman, on the other hand, finally became a fantasy star. The addition of Adam Dunn to the lineup undoubtedly helped, but Dunn can’t take all the credit. Zimmerman saw a lower percentage of strikes this season (60.5%) than any other year in his career, but an improved eye yielded career highs in walks (72) and AVG (.292). At only 25 years old, this is the first of many more 30/100 seasons to come.

Honorable Mention: Pablo Sandoval

Most Disappointing Player of 2009

David Wright (NYM) – Entering 2009, Wright had all the indicators of a monster season. His HR totals had increased every year for four straight years, his lowest average in a full season was .302, he averaged 114 runs in ’07 and ’08, and he had never finished with fewer than 102 RBI. In short, he was as sure a bet as there was, but after posting only 10 HR and 72 RBI in the Mets’ first season at Citi Field, there are obviously numerous questions surrounding his underwhelming performance. Of all those questions, one is more pressing than all the rest: Why? Most blame it on Citi Field, but is that really the answer. In the coming days, we’ll try to answer that question by looking into whether or not Citi Field really is where homeruns go to die. While that answer is as of now unknown, one thing is for sure. If Wright slips to the end of the first round, get him.

Dishonorable Mention: Chipper Jones

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The Curious Case of Nick Markakis

By on December 30, 2009 | Comments { 0 }

Last offseason, the Baltimore Orioles signed Nick Markakis, who was coming off a career year, to a six year, $66 million contract. They thought they were locking up a perennial all-star, but Markakis did not live up to expectations in 2009 as he regressed back to his rookie season rather than continue with his upward trend over the past two seasons.

Markakis posted a 6.45 position scarcity rating (PSR) in 2009, which ranked 87th overall. That ranking pegs him as a late ninth round pick, but most owners drafted him somewhere between rounds three and five. Before we delve into why 2009 was such a down year, let’s take a look at his career stats so far:

YearABRHRRBISBBAOBPOPS
20064917216622.291.351.799
2007637972311218.300.362.848
2008595106208710.306.406.897
200964294181016.293.347.801

The most telling stat here is on-base percentage, which rose from .351 to .406 from 2006-2008, but then dipped back down to a career-low .347 in 2009. In 2008, Markakis brought a patient approach to the plate and came away with a near-.900 OPS and 99 walks—great in both fantasy and reality. In 2009, he strayed away from his approach that pegged him as a patient, power-hitting corner outfielder and returned to his more pedestrian and less attractive rookie form.

To further illustrate this point I took a look at his plate discipline statistics and found that in 2009 Markakis swung at more pitches outside of the strike zone and hit less line drives—all of which resulted in a lower BABIP—and made him no better than Jason Kubel (6.41 PSR) or Curtis Granderson (6.41 PSR). Here are the stats so you can see for yourself:

(Note: O-Swing corresponds to swings at pitches outside of the strike zone and Z-Swing corresponds to swings at pitches inside the strike zone.)

YearO-Swing%Z-Swing%BB%BABIPLD%FB%HR/FB%
200623.8%65.9%8.1%.31519.6%29.2%13.1%
200723.4%64.1%8.7%.33517.7%37.4%11.6%
200818.0%64.2%14.3%.35121.1%32.9%12.6%
200923.0%60.9%8.0%.32316.6%40.6%8.0%

Markakis posted a career year in 2008 thanks to a great improvement in his batting eye. He swung at a career-low 18 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, which led to a career-high 14.3 percent walk rate, which ranked 17th in the league. Also by swinging at more pitches in the zone, Markakis made better contact thereby increasing his BABIP to .351, which was ninth-highest in the majors.

Fast forward to 2009 and two things that jump out at me are the increase in fly ball percentage and a sudden dip in HR/FB percentage. You would think that with more fly balls come more home runs, but in Markakis’ case only eight percent of his fly balls turned into home runs when his previous career-low was 11.6 percent.

It’s fair to assume that Markakis’ 2009 HR/FB rate is an aberration and that he will return at least close to an 11 percent rate, if not higher, so I did some math. In 2009 Markakis hit 225 fly balls and if 11.6 percent of them left the yard he would have hit 26, not 18, home runs. Not bad right?

So now it’s time for the million dollar question—what can we expect in 2010?

If 2009 is any indication of what direction Markakis is headed in then it’s not going to be pretty, but lucky for us he should have a nice bounce-back season  if he can fix some key issues that plagued him last season. For some reason Markakis’ eye wasn’t as sharp last season as it was previously in his career and if he can swing at more pitches in the strike zone, like he has done in the past, he will see an increase in line drives and a better BABIP.

Also we shouldn’t expect a walk rate of 14 percent or a BABIP or .351, but he should improve on his ridiculously low HR/FB rate which would increase his power output and thus make him a more valuable fantasy corner outfielder.

At 26 years old, Markakis is the cornerstone in a very young Orioles lineup, but with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, Noland Reimold, Matt Wieters and new addition Garrett Atkins as protection we should expect numbers in the ballpark of .300 BA—95 R—23 HR—100 RBI—8 SB.

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Deviation From Career Norms: First Base

By on December 29, 2009 | Comments { 1 }

Yesterday I looked at the catcher position and identified players whose past year deviated from their career averages.  Today I will do the same for first basemen and determine if last year’s stats are the start of a new trend or merely an anomaly.

Kendry Morales

While Kendry Morales seemed to come out of nowhere last year, he was actually a member of the Angels for parts of the ‘06, ‘07, and ‘08 seasons.  In those 3 seasons he averaged 126 AB’s, 13 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI, and a .249 AVG.  With these paltry numbers it was no wonder Morales had a hard time cracking the lineup.

To be fair, Morales was behind Mark Teixeira for half of the ’08 season.  But in 2006, Morales received the most AB’s of any Angels 1B (196) and could not muster more than a .230 AVG with 5 HR and 21 RBI.  And in 2007, Morales gave way to Casey Kotchman, a player known more for his glove than his bat.

That brings us to 2009.  With Teixeira and Kotchman both gone, the keys to first base were once again given to Morales.  But this time he took advantage.  Last year Morales batted .306 with 34 HR and 108 RBI while scoring 86 R.  Certainly a pleasant surprise for those fortunate enough to take a chance on him last year.  But will he do it again next year?  Absolutely.  We know Morales can hit for average because his career minor league AVG is .332.  However, he did not hit for much power in the minors, registering only 1 HR every 22.18 AB’s.  He was even worse in the majors, registering 1 HR every 31.41 AB’s.

All changed last year due to an improvement in his plate discipline.  Morales walked once every 12.3 AB’s last year compared to once every 13.96 AB’s from 2006-2008.  He also only swung at only 46% of pitches thrown to him.  His previous low was 48.3%.  Morales also saw more pitches per plate appearance.  He saw 4.01 pitches per plate appearance, besting his previous high of 3.64.  With a firmer grasp of the strike zone, Morales was better able to look for his pitch and use his natural hitting ability to drive the ball.  An improved batting eye bodes well for Morales in 2010 to put up numbers similar to the ones he put up in 2009.

It also helps that nobody will be threatening him for playing time.

Lance Berkman

Recently, a fellow writer here at Baseball Professor pegged Lance Berkman as the most disappointing 1B of 2009.  He finished the year with 73 R, 25 HR, and 80 RBI to go along with a .274 AVG.  Not good at all for someone who averaged 98 R, 32 HR, and 105 RBI and batted .303 during the 2000s.  Was last year just a blip in his stellar career or the beginning of the end for Lance Berkman?

To answer this question we must take a closer look at Berkman’s 2009 statistics. In March, Berkman battled bicep tendonitis.  It is no surprise then why Berkman posted a line of 10/5/10/.162/0 in the month of April.  Excluding that month, he posted a line of 63/20/70/.295/7.  He put up those numbers in only 386 AB’s as he battled left wrist soreness, a strained left calf muscle, and back spasms.  Although these injuries are a concern, Berkman has showed that he can be productive while battling various ailments.

After looking at Berkman’s line again, it doesn’t look so bad considering he only had 460 AB’s.  In fact, his AB/HR ratio were not all that different last year (18.4) than from 2007-2008 (17.7).  It is also encouraging that Berkman put up these numbers despite posting a BABIP that was .24 less than his career average (.300 vs. .324).  Although Berkman is getting up there in age (he’ll be 34 by opening day), he still has at least one more year before we can count him out as a perennial 30 HR 100 RBI threat.  As a result he should become a nice value target on draft day and, with a full season’s worth of AB’s, should revert back closer to his career norms.  If you miss out on Pujols, Fielder, Cabrera, Howard, or Teixeira then don’t be afraid to draft Berkman.

Russell Branyan

Raise your hand if you had Russell Branyan in your 30 HR pool.  Didn’t think so.  One of the biggest surprises at the first base position, Branyan batted .251 with 31 HR, 76 RBI, and 64 R which were all career highs.  Not coincidently, he had the most at bats of his career with 431.  His previous high in at bats was 378 way back in 2002.

Could it be that simple, that all Branyan needed was more playing time in order to become a viable fantasy source of power?  At first glance it seems like this may be the case.  The difference between his actual BABIP (.307) and his expected BABIP (.295) was not all that great last year indicating that his numbers were indicative of his performance and not based on luck.  Also we know his power is for real considering that his AB/HR ratio last year was right in line with his career average (13.9 vs. 14.8).  These numbers seem to indicate that Branyan will be able to duplicate his ‘09 numbers if given the at bats.

However, there is cause for concern.  Here is a breakdown of Branyan’s month by month AVG totals: .333, .317, .265, .159, .206.  Note, he missed all of September with a herniated disk.  Not surprisingly, his career batting average is .234.  Maybe his former employers were onto something by not giving him 400+ AB’s.  With batting averages that low coupled with his putrid career batting average, Branyan will surely not be given as many at bats next year as he was given with the Mariners last year.  Last year was an aberration for Branyan.  He was thrust into a starting role because the Mariners were desperate for some power in the lineup.  Fantasy owners don’t need to be that desperate with so much power available at first base.

No matter where Branyan signs next year, his 2010 numbers will be closer to his career averages than his 2009 numbers.  Whether it be the injuries that have plagued him throughout his career or the fact that he will be forced into a platoon role, Branyan simply won’t accumulate enough at bats to be fantasy worthy.  Then again do you really want 30 HR if you have to take on a batting average south of .250?

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Where Will Jason Bay Land?

By on December 28, 2009 | Comments { 0 }

The market is still wide open for Jason Bay, who most analysts agree is one of the top three free agents available this offseason. Surprisingly, he has not been highly sought after, and has only received two known offers from the Red Sox and the Mets. Both offers are for four years and between $60MM and $65MM.

He rejected the Sox offer early in hopes of receiving a fifth year, but that has not happened yet and now he is leaving the Mets in limbo by not making a decision on their offer. It was thought that the Mariners would be a good fit, but they have since acquired Milton Bradley from the Cubs and do not appear to be in the running anymore. The Angels have yet to focus on Bay, but have not ruled him out so they could be another potential suitor down the road. The Giants have shown interest earlier in the month as well, but as they near a deal with Mark DeRosa (who can be placed in left field if necessary) it seems less likely, but not impossible, that they land Bay.

In summary, to me there are four potential teams for Bay to play for next year: the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Giants. His fantasy impact next season hinges on his decision, and I offer my predictions for each of the four teams.

Boston Red Sox: Clearly, Jason Bay has shown that he can handle the pressure cooker that comes with being a member of the Red Sox. In his year and a half in Boston, Bay clubbed 45 home runs and drove in 156 runs as the replacement for Manny Ramirez. It does not seem likely that the Red Sox will re-sign him given the agreement they reached with Mike Cameron, but he is still a free agent and his market is very thin. Being the dead pull hitter that he is, the Green Monster was very inviting for Bay, and I predict another 30 plus home run, 100 plus RBI season with Boston on the off chance that he returns.

New York Mets: It is becoming more and more clear every day that Bay does not want to play for the Mets. They have offered him a contract very similar to that of Boston’s, and he is in no hurry to accept it. Because of his success in Boston, the pressure of playing in New York should not get to him, so his numbers will not drop for that reason. However, the problem is home run eating Citi Field. No Met hit more than 12 home runs last year, and obviously that is due in large part to injuries of Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes. Those numbers still must raise a red flag for Bay, and I see a drop in power next  year if he ends up a Met. He will not have a 30-100 season, hitting around 25 homers and driving in around 95. Still a solid year especially if the rest of the lineup is healthy.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels have lost Chone Figgins to the Mariners, and do not plan on re-signing Vladimir Guerrero, so expect the offense to be a little less productive next season. Erick Aybar or Maicer Izturis could be placed leadoff and Bobby Abreu is back, but I still would not count on Bay having as productive a year as 2009 with those guys setting the table. I predict the power will still be there at 30 plus homers, but his RBI total will dip under 100.

San Francisco Giants: Bay has some experience at AT&T Park, logging 52 plate appearances. He has done well there, hitting .318 with a two homers and nine batted in in nine games. As mentioned above, I do not see the Giants landing Bay, but he has spent the majority of his career in the National League, and on the chance that the Giants do go after him, I expect him to have success. I predict a 30-100 season if he goes to San Francisco.

This analysis means that Bay would be best suited to either return to Boston, or head to the Giants if he wants to have another year like 2009.

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2009 In Review: Shortstop

By on December 28, 2009 | Comments { 1 }

Recapping two positions in one day? I must be a madman! No, well maybe, but I’m just really excited about the upcoming baseball season. Only four months away!

We’ve already taken a look back at three positions, and we still have three ahead, meaning our look at how shortstop shook out in 2009 marks the halfway point of our seven positions in seven days. If you’d like (and we hope you would) take a look back at what we’ve already done:

Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Third Base
Outfield
Pitchers

We saw lots of variety in the top 5 in ’09 including a fantasy superstar (Ramirez), a veteran that defies Father Time (Jeter), an emerging slugger (Tulowitzki), a surprise performer (Bartlett), and an all-world fielder (Rollins). Was there any value to be had after those guys? Sure, but not much.

PSRPlayerRHRRBISBAVG
15.50Ramirez, Hanley1012410727.342
12.36Jeter, Derek107186630.334
12.21Tulowitzki, Troy101329220.297
9.70Bartlett, Jason90146630.320
8.57Rollins, Jimmy100217731.250
5.93Tejada, Miguel8414875.313
4.90Cabrera, Asdrubal8166817.308
4.81Escobar, Yunel8914765.299
4.80Scutaro, Marco100126014.282
4.09Cabrera, Orlando8397713.284
3.55Theriot, Ryan8175421.284
3.54Ramirez, Alexei71156814.277
3.44Izturis, Maicer7486513.300
3.03Aybar, Erick7055814.312
2.98Andrus, Elvis7264033.267
1.84Furcal, Rafael9294712.269
0.39Drew, Stephen7112655.261
0.25Uribe, Juan5016553.289
-0.25Guzman, Cristian746524.282
-0.74Ryan, Brendan5533714.292
-0.82Peralta, Jhonny5711830.254
-1.07Bloomquist, Willie5242924.265
-1.07Bloomquist, Willie5242924.265
-1.22Cabrera, Everth5923125.255
-1.62Bonifacio, Emilio7212721.252
-2.34Counsell, Craig614393.285
-2.43Hairston Jr., Jerry6210397.251
-3.59Renteria, Edgar505487.250
-4.17Punto, Nick5613816.228
-4.31Lugo, Julio403219.280
-4.52Valbuena, Luis5210312.250
-4.75Hardy, J.J.5311470.229
-4.99Izturis, Cesar3423013.256
-5.02Betancourt, Yuniesky406493.245
-5.12Harris, Brendan446370.261
-5.28Hernandez, Anderson393377.252
-5.43Pennington, Cliff274217.279
-5.51Wilson, Jack375393.254
-5.57Santiago, Ramon297351.267
-5.59Gonzalez, Alex428412.238
-5.71Everett, Adam433445.238
-6.09Reyes, Jose1821511.279
-6.18Escobar, Alcides201114.304
-6.75Gonzalez, Alberto311331.265
-7.10Green, Nick356351.236
-7.23Cedeno, Ronny3210385.209
-7.26Cora, Alex311188.251
-8.03Ojeda, Augie381163.246
-8.34Vizquel, Omar171144.266
-10.05Andino, Robert312103.222
-10.07Janish, Paul361162.215
-10.56Greene, Khalil216242.200
-10.69Vazquez, Ramon171161.230
-10.85Wilson, Josh193131.222
-11.98Rodriguez, Luis182161.203

(use arrows to scroll)

MVP of 2009

Hanley Ramirez (FLA) – Hanley Ramirez is to shortstops what Denzel Washington is to movie detectives. They’re so good at what they do that no one else even compares. Ever since his move to third in the order, Ramirez has added the ability to drive in runs to what was already a fantasy owners’ dream. Barring injury, he will be a top 2 fantasy draft pick for a long, long time.

Honorable Mention: Derek Jeter (NYY)

Comeback Player of 2009

Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – I wasn’t a believer. I should have been. Before last season I seriously debated who I wanted heading into 2009: Tulowitzki or Stephen Drew. Honestly, at the time it was a legitimate question. Tulo was coming off a terrible, injury-plagued season and something about the whole 2007 Rockies team seemed like they had peaked. Plus Drew had a .502 SLG% in 2008 and seemed to be trending up. Wrong and wrong. Tulowitzki was Tulo-jit-2-quit (I saw that somewhere, but for the life of me I can’t remember where) and had the breakout year we all hoped we’d see sooner or later.

Honorable Mention: Jimmy Rollins (PHI)

Breakout Player of 2009

Jason Bartlett (TB) – Even after raking for a few months, many people still regarded his success as a prolonged hot streak. He had 11 HR in 1702 career AB before hitting 14 in 2009 (which is both the year and the number of AB it should have taken for him to hit 14 HR). He had a career high .393 SLG% entering last season and proceeded to slug .490. Nothing about 2009 made sense people lucky enough to own Bartlett (although it probably made less sense to those who didn’t), so advice for 2010 is to be cautiously optimistic.

Honorable Mention: Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)

Most Disappointing Player of 2009

Stephen Drew (ARI) – The younger brother of Red Sox OF, J.D. Drew, and former 15th overall draft pick in 2004, expectations for Stephen Drew were understandably high. As it turns out, he wasn’t ready to break out as he parlayed a promising 2008 into a disappointing 2009 to the tune of 71/.261/12/65/5. If there is a positive to be found, it’s that he did increase his BB rate, but that was about it. Seriously. Check it out.

Dishonorable Mention: Alexei Ramirez (CHW)

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Deviation From Career Norms: Catchers

By on December 28, 2009 | Comments { 0 }

There is a certain amount of comfort in fantasy baseball.  Although we don’t know exactly what a player’s stats will be at the end of the year, we generally have an idea of how a player will perform.  Some players  always hit .300 and other players always hit 30 home runs.  We know these things because a player has consistently put up these numbers throughout his career.  They are called trends and every fantasy manager must identify these in order to be successful.

But what happens if a player deviates from his norm?  If he has an unexpected power surge does that mean we can expect more of the same power going forward?  If a player has a down year is it just a blip in his career or the beginning of a new trend?  It is important to identify possible new trends before your draft because you don’t want to overpay for a player who probably won’t duplicate his career year or spend a high draft pick on someone who you think can rebound but is not a good candidate to do so.

In the coming days I will be doing a series where I will highlight players from each postion whose past year was different from their career norms and determine if it is the beginning of a new trend or just an aberration.  Here are the highlights from the catcher position.

Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer is the best catcher in fantasy, period.  He finished last year with a PSR (Position Scarcity Rating) of 12.75.  This was 57.8% higher than the next best backstop. But if he is head an shoulders above every catcher, then why is he on this list?  Mauer is on this list because he hit 28 HR last year, 15 more than his previous high of 13 back in 2006.

Now before drafting Mauer in the late 1st, early 2nd round (where it will take to get him), you need to determine if he is the guy who hit almost 30 HR or  the guy who averaged 9.5 HR from 2005-2008.  I’m more inclined to believe that Mauer will not approach 30 HR next year.  Last year his home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) was a staggering 20.4%.  His career average is 11.4%.  And his isolated power rating (ISO) was .222, significantly higher than his career average of .156.  While it is probable that Mauer is developing more power, his spike in HR seems more like an aberration than a new trend since his HR/FB ratio and ISO were much greater last year than in any other year.

In addition to a power surge, Mauer also hit .365, which was much higher than his career AVG of .327.  This can be attributed to the highest BABIP of his career.  His BABIP was .377 which is much higher than his career BABIP of .349.  This suggests that Mauer was a bit lucky last year in that more of his batted balls resulted in hits than in any other year.

Although Mauer had a year for the ages at the catcher position last year, he will be hard pressed to repeat his performance in 2010.  While still the best catcher in fantasy, he is not worthy of a 1st round or early 2nd round pick.

Russell Martin

Russell Martin made his share of enemies last season.  Many fantasy managers made Martin the 2nd catcher off the board on draft day and with good reason.  From 2006-2008 Martin averaged 80 R, 14 HR, 74 RBI, 16 SB, and a .285 AVG.  However, last year Martin disappointed with 63 R, 7 HR, 53 RBI, 11 SB, and a .250 AVG.  Yikes.

Which Martin can we expect in 2010, the 2006-2008 version or the 2009 version?  I believe the 2010 version will be similar to last year’s version, thus 2009 was not an aberration but rather the beginning of a new trend.  Martin was able to put up good R and RBI numbers from 2007-2008 due his position in the Dodgers lineup.  In 2007, Martin hit 2nd 56 times, 3rd 170 times, 5th 56 times, and 6th 248 times.  In 2008, Martin hit 1st 73 times, 3rd 163 times, 5th 79 times, and 6th 98 times.  However, 2009 saw more of Martin’s at bats coming from lower in the order.  He hit 5th 98 times, 6th 130 times, 7th 128 times, and 8th 80 times.

The lower a player is in the order, the fewer chances he has to score or drive in runs.  In 2010 I expect Martin to again hit mostly in the bottom half of the order.  I find it hard to believe that he will hit at the top of the order with Rafael Furcal on the roster or hit above guys like Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, James Loney, or even Casey Blake.  This means that he is unlikely to approach 80 R or 74 RBI.

As for Martin’s HR, SB, and AVG, they have all decreased in each of the last three years.  His OPS has also decreased in each of the last three years culminating in an .680 OPS in 2009.

Another alarming note on Martin is his second half splits.  He is a career .287 hitter before the All-Star break but only a career .263 hitter aftee.  I’m sure Joe Torre and the rest of the Dodgers staff are aware of this and may reduce Martin’s workload throughout the season, something that will surely hurt his counting stats.

When drafting Martin in your upcoming fantasy draft, understand that you’re not getting the 2006-2008 version, but someone closer to the 2009 version.

Geovany Soto

Last year, Geovany Soto’s owners would have killed for Russell Martin’s stats.  That’s how bad your catcher position was if you were unfortunate enough to draft Soto last year.  After bursting onto the scene in 2008, Soto stumbled in 2009 and never recovered.  What gives?  Is he the player in 2008 who scored 66 R, hit 23 HR, drove in 86 runs, and batted .285 or the shell of that version who hit .218 with 27 R, 11 HR, and 47 RBI in 2009?

I think 2009 was an aberration and that the real Soto will stand up and perform closer to the 2008 version.  Since Soto has only 2 years of 300 or more at bats it’s harder to determine how well he will perform in 2010.  However, I am more inclined to believe that his poor performance  in 2009 was a result of injury.  He began the year battling shoulder issues and later strained his oblique muscle which resulted in a rather lengthy DL stint.  It’s no surprise then why Soto wasn’t able to duplicate his 2008 stats.

Although this doesn’t prove that Soto will regain his 2008 form, there are other encouraging signs that point towards a rebirth for Soto.  Even though Soto had a high BABIP of .337 in 2008, his high LD% (Line Drive Percentage) of 21% suggests that it is somewhat attainable.  Also, Soto showed tremendous hitting ability in the Minor Leagues.  For the Cubs Triple A team in 2007, he hit 25 HR with 107 RBI while posting a .349 AVG.  Although I wouldn’t recommend drafting Soto as top 5 catcher, don’t be afraid to take a chance on him after that.

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Dec. 28: High Upside, FA/Late-Round Picks

By on December 28, 2009 | Comments { 0 }

I stumbled across an interesting thread on Fantasy Baseball Cafe today that attempted to identify who some late-round players to draft might be. There were many good suggestions (and many bad ones) but I thought I’d post the link for anyone to read through.

As I note in a post I made on the thread, you should be swinging for the fences with late-round picks. Who cares if you get a third first baseman that has zero chance to break out. He may play once a week, and he is extremely replaceable. Go after the Kendry Morales-type players, ones that could really surprise. If they don’t pan out, who cares. Drop them and get that third first baseman you wanted so bad. Anyway, here’s the link:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=398661&sid=a1bb5e13fa10cf6feb49dd338ef76cf7&p=3173132#p3173132

Who are your potential sleeper, late-round picks?

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