Archive | Professor’s Blog RSS feed for this section

Fantasy Impact: Updated Closer Situations

By on April 4, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

Closers are the most unpredictable position in fantasy baseball and rather than scouring over the internet for the latest injuries and closer-related news you can check our 2012 MLB closer chart, which we will update daily, and you can follow us on Twitter (@BaseballProf) or like us on Facebook where we will post the most recent fantasy-relevant news.

Now let’s get to some of the most recent bullpen developments from the past week as we get ready to kick off the 2012 season.

Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds

Marshall was wisely named the Reds’ Opening Day closer by Dusty Baker, and I think he runs away with the job. Marshall has pitched 150 1/3 innings in the setup role over the last two seasons and has put up a 2.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.12 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9. He absolutely has the makeup of a top-five closer and if he keeps the job all year, which I think he will, that’s exactly where he will finish. If you can convince the Marshall owner that Baker is a wildcard as a manager (not hard to do) and the presence of the flame-throwing Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen poses as a risk to Marshall, there’s a chance you can still grab him at a discount.

Andrew Bailey, Boston Red Sox

What a mess this bullpen situation is. The obvious choice to man the closer role while Bailey recovers from thumb ligament surgery is Mark Melancon, who saved 20 games for the Astros last year, but don’t rule out Alfredo Aceves and possibly even Vicente Padilla. None of these pitchers really fit the prototypical description of a closer, but they all have experience late in games. Bobby Valentine has yet to name a closer, and there’s a chance that he gives the situation time to settle before making a final decision. Monitor this situation closely, but I actually think that Aceves is the man to get the first crack at closing games in Boston, so stash him away if you have the bench spot. I wouldn’t spend many FAAB dollars on anyone until the picture clears up a bit.

UPDATE: Valentine has named Aceves as the Red Sox closer so you should go out and get him, but this by no means makes him a lock for 20 saves. The Red Sox still have other options to close, and I can’t imagine the leash on Aceves is going to be very long if he struggles out the gate. If you are in a deeper league, Melancon and possibly Padilla should be stowed away on the bench.

Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays

It was only a matter of time before the 36-year-old Farnsworth succumbed to some type of injury, so now the closing duties will fall upon the shoulders of Joel Peralta and Fernando Rodney. While Peralta is the better pitcher (not saying much) and closed at the end of last year, Rodney has a lot of closing experience. I wouldn’t be surprised if Joe Maddon decides to let both close games until Farnsworth can return from the DL.

Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals

There’s no question to me who the best pitcher in the Royals’  bullpen is, and that’s Greg Holland. His 1.80 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 74:19 K:BB ratio in 60 innings last year are exactly the type of numbers you’d love to see out of your closer, but Broxton is the man with the experience. However, Broxton is also the man that had elbow surgery as recent as last September and hasn’t been an effective pitcher since 2009. I find it hard to believe that Broxton is going to all of a sudden have some type of resurgence and become an effective closer, and it’s only a matter of time before Ned Yost has no choice but to use Holland in the ninth inning. Stash him on your bench, and at the very worst you’ll get elite numbers from a setup man with a good chance of saves in his future.

Drew Storen, Washington Nationals

With Storen starting the season on the DL, the ninth-inning duties will fall upon Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez. While Rodriguez had a very impressive spring (3 saves, 12:2 K:BB in 12 IP), Storen’s absence shouldn’t be more than three weeks, which means Davey Johnson has no reason to name a permanent closer. I expect Lidge and Rodriguez to share the duties based on rest and situation, which only makes them useful in NL-only leagues or if you’re absolutely desperate for saves.

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Download Your FREE 2012 Preseason Draft Guide Now!

By on March 15, 2012 | Comments { 7 }

Our 2012 Preseason Draft Guide is finally finished and ready to download! It will cost you absolutely nothing to get your copy, all we ask is that you Like us on Facebook.

Like us on Facebook to get your FREE copy of our Draft Guide!

What will the guide include?

Seven Steps to Winning Your Fantasy League

Those of you who read the site from last season will know what this is. It’s basically seven in-depth articles on how to dominate every facet of your league through knowing your settings, understanding the important hitting and pitching sabermetrics, drafting, trading, dominating your waiver wire and of course keeper/dynasty league strategies. We got a lot of positive feedback on it last season so we brought it back with updated stats and information.

Positional Previews (Graphs, Auction Values, Player Profiles, Projections)

The first set of graphs we chose to showcase for each position are three-year statistical trends for each of the five standard categories and the Positional Scarcity Rating (PSR). These graphs will give you a better look at what categories are available at each position and whether there’s a big, medium or small drop-off in the different tiers.

The second set of graphs are scatterplots that show batter’s xBA vs. BA and pitcher’s xOBA vs. OBA (in case you didn’t know, xBA is expected batting average and xOBA is expected opponent’s batting average used for pitchers). This is a cool visual way of showing which players were lucky and unlucky according to our xBA formula.

We then delve into our own auction values for each player and also give you an in-depth look at the position via some superlatives.

Finally we get into the player profiles (over 400!) where we have their stats from the last three seasons along with our projections and a short blurb on their 2012 outlook.

Prospect Watch

We highlight over 50 prospects that you should keep an eye on for both 2012 and beyond.

Read full story · Comments { 7 }

The Baseball Professor 2012 Draft Guide Coming Soon!

By on March 14, 2012 | Comments { 4 }

UPDATE: We hit a minor technological snag yesterday and will be getting the draft guide online hopefully around 5 p.m. to  6 p.m. EST tonight. Thank you for your patience and hopefully you don’t have a draft tonight!

It might be later than we anticipated, but our 2012 draft guide is just around the corner! Hey, better late than never right? Anyways here is what you can find included in the draft guide that should be available this evening/night. Oh, and it’s free!

Seven Steps to Winning Your Fantasy League

Those of you who read the site from last season will know what this is. It’s basically seven in-depth articles on how to dominate every facet of your league through knowing your settings, understanding the important hitting and pitching sabermetrics, drafting, trading, dominating your waiver wire and of course keeper/dynasty league strategies. We got a lot of positive feedback on it last season so we brought it back with updated stats and information.

Positional Previews (Graphs, Auction Values, Player Profiles, Projections)

The first set of graphs we chose to showcase for each position are three-year statistical trends for each of the five standard categories and the Positional Scarcity Rating (PSR). These graphs will give you a better look at what categories are available at each position and whether there’s a big, medium or small drop-off in the different tiers.

The second set of graphs are scatterplots that show batter’s xBA vs. BA and pitcher’s xOBA vs. OBA (in case you didn’t know, xBA is expected batting average and xOBA is expected opponent’s batting average used for pitchers). This is a cool visual way of showing which players were lucky and unlucky according to our xBA formula.

We then delve into our own auction values for each player and also give you an in-depth look at the position via some superlatives.

Finally we get into the player profiles (over 400!) where we have their stats from the last three seasons along with our projections and a short blurb on their 2012 outlook.

Prospect Watch

We highlight over 50 prospects that you should keep an eye on for both 2012 and beyond.

Details on how to download it will be announced once the guide is released on the site.

Read full story · Comments { 4 }

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: 11 Pitchers With SP/RP Eligibility

By on February 20, 2012 | Comments { 1 }

I’m a serious proponent multi-position eligibility. It’s one of the reasons I love Ben Zobrist (2B/OF) and Michael Young (1B/2B/3B), and it keeps Emilio Bonifacio (2B/SS/OF) from becoming another name on the list of player’s I refuse to own.

However, multi-position eligibility doesn’t end with batters. There are many pitchers who have both starting pitcher and relief pitcher eligibility, and owning a few guys with SP/RP eligibility is something you can use to your advantage if you find yourself in any of a number of fantasy formats. Will you find yourself in any of these situations this year?

  • You have more starting pitchers going in one day than you have available starting pitcher spots to put them.
  • You want to add an extra pitcher to spot start on a given day but you don’t have a free starting pitcher spot (think head-to-head leagues).
  • You want to add an extra closer to make a late-week (or late-season) push in saves and you want to start more relievers than your league allows.
  • You’re in a roto league and, toward the end of the season, you find yourself under the starting pitcher innings max.
  • You’re in a league with some funky rules that are too specific to your league for me to care about.

That may cover the majority of the situations where you’ll need to start a starting pitcher in a relief pitcher spot. It might not. Those are situation I know I’ve found myself in over the last few years when I’ve thought to myself, “Damn, I really wish Josh Collmenter was available,” and I promise you that’s not a thought I’ve had often.

Here are notable pitchers who, in 2012, will have both starter and reliever eligibility in most leagues.

Josh Collmenter, ARI

I just mentioned him above because he’s the first guy that came to mind, but Collmenter had a pretty awesome season last year. He only threw 14 innings as a reliever last season versus 140 1/3 as a starter, and that makes his 3.38 ERA all the more impressive. He was able to pitch is way to a .255 BABIP and 7.7 percent HR/FB rate last year, and conventional wisdom would suggest those rates would regress to the league average, but Collmenter has a particularly unique delivery that might make him a statistical outlier.  He doesn’t strike out many batters, just 100 in over 150 innings last year, but his 1.83 BB/9 helps make up for this. He posted FIPs under 4.00 in all but one month last season.

Cory Luebke, SD

If Luebke stays on his current career trajectory, he’ll establish himself as a top-25 starting pitcher very early in 2012. But that doesn’t mean you have to start him as a starting pitcher. If Clayton Kershaw had relief pitcher eligibility and I wanted to go with four starters in a league with just three starting pitcher spots, you better believe I’m moving Kershaw to a reliever spot. Luebke struck out 9.92 batters per nine innings while walking just 2.84 per nine. He won’t win games in San Diego, but if he gets enough innings you can pencil him in for borderline elite ERA and WHIP numbers.

Neftali Felix, TEX/Chris Sale, CHW/Daniel Bard, BOS

Feliz, Sale and Bard will make the transition from reliever to starter, which means they’ll have to be used exclusively as relief pitchers until they gain starter eligibility about a month or so into the 2012 season. Of the three, I like Feliz the most, but Bard is a close second because he’s demonstrated good control in the majors and has a good team backing him up, but all three have extremely high ceilings, though they’ll likely pitch limited innings (and that could hurt their win totals).

Alexi Ogando, TEX

Ogando looks to be in the Texas bullpen, but after starting in 29 of his 31 appearances last season, it will take him a couple weeks (maybe two?) to gain the required number of appearances in relief depending on your league’s rules.

Jason Hammel, BAL

We already gave our review of the Hammel-Jeremy Guthrie trade for fantasy purposes, and it doesn’t look like Hammel will fare too well in Baltimore. Still, maybe a change of scenery is all he needs and he can actually become a relevant fantasy contributor (read: someone with a WHIP under 1.40).

Jordan Lyles/Aneury Rodriguez, HOU

These two starters get grouped together because they’re minor league pitchers who started a few games for the Astros last season with mostly unimpressive results. Lyles was 2-8 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 94 innings while Rodriguez was 1-6 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings. Lyles got most of his work in the rotation (15 starts) whereas Rodriguez was primarily a reliever (eight starts). Lyles has the higher ceiling and could be worth something. Rodriguez is more of a long shot.

Alfredo Aceves, BOS

It remains to be seen what will be done with the back end of Boston’s rotation, but Aceves is certainly a candidate for the last starting spot. He has a knack for winning games (career 24-3 record) but he’s started in just nine of his 114 career appearances. Boston’s offense should yield some win opportunities, but Aceves might struggle to go the requisite five innings to qualify. In those nine career starts he’s last just over five innings per start.

Anthony Bass, SD

I wasn’t going to write a little blurb about Bass until I saw his strikeout (4.47 K/9) and walk (3.91 BB/9) rates last season. His 1.68 ERA is just another case of relievers having suppressed ERAs, so if he gets a chance in the majors don’t start him because of his 2011 numbers. Start him because of his good control in the minors (2.36 BB/9) and the improvements he made transitioning to a starter’s role in the Padres system last year.

Other names to be aware of:

  • Marco Estrada, MIL
  • Everett Teaford, KC
  • Kyle McClellan, STL
  • Kyle Kendrick, PHI
  • Carlos Villanueva, TOR
  • Tommy Hunter, BAL
  • Dellin Betances, NYY
Read full story · Comments { 1 }

Complete xBA and xBABIP Data Now Available!

By on February 4, 2012 | Comments { 0 }

At the request of some of our readers, we’ve finally posted all of our xBA and xBABIP data from the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons. You can access the data by clicking the link on the navigation bar at the top of the page, or you can just click here: xBA/xBABIP by Year.

In case you’re not familiar with xBA or xBABIP, they’re stats we’ve developed here at Baseball Professor. They’re calculated using over a dozen peripheral stats for each player including batted ball, speed and plate discipline data.

Because one equation is used to illustrate the true performance of various types of hitters ranging from speed-first players (Michael Bourn) to pure sluggers (Adam Dunn), there are some players who tend to post actual batting averages or BABIPs that are consistently higher or lower than their xBAs or xBABIPs, but we see this phenomenon in all stats designed with the same purpose of shedding light on a player’s actual performance (think Matt Cain and his ability to consistently outperform his FIPs). That said, xBA and xBABIP are great ways to see just how lucky or unlucky a player was in any given season.

Good luck in your upcoming drafts!

Read full story · Comments { 0 }

Using Average Home Run Distance to Project Home Run Totals

By on January 3, 2012 | Comments { 5 }

Yesterday I wrote a post concerning Jacoby Ellsbury‘s sudden power surge last season. In that post I concluded Ellsbury would see his home run total decline in 2012 (shocking!) but I found some interesting connections between a player’s HR/FB rate, his average home run distance and his average ball speed off the bat. As it turns out, when a player’s HR/FB rate is disproportionately greater than the other two stats, he tends to suffer a drop in home run production the following season. This is what we’d expect and it’s what the numbers suggest.

One of our commenters wondered if the opposite was true. If a player’s HR/FB rate was disproportionately lower than his average homer distance and average speed off the bat,  does he tend to have a better power season the next year? I looked into that today.

But first, here’s a quick recap of the data we saw yesterday regarding expected home run decliners. In that Ellsbury post I noted 44 potential home run decliners whose HR/FB rates were disproportionately high (minimum 15 home runs hit during the 2010 season). Today I narrowed that number down to 29 by only including players who had at least 400 plate appearances in both 2010 and 2011. I also added a comparison of HR/FB rates from year to year to take into account fluctuations in plate appearances among these 29 players. The results are below.

For our pool of potential home run decliners, the average home run total fell from 26.9 in 2010 to 21.9 in 2011, an 18.2 percent drop. The average player’s HR/FB rate fell from 15.6 percent to 13.8 percent, a gap which represents an overall 12.2 percent decline. As a group, 23 of the 29 players hit fewer home runs (79.3 percent) and 21 of 29 had a lower HR/FB rate (72.4 percent). Those numbers seem significant enough to me.

As for our pool of potential home run gainers (those with disproportionately low HR/FB rates), there were 35 players who fit our criteria. Those players are listed below.

Rather unexpectedly, this group of players also averaged fewer home runs from one year to the next, 21.2 to 20.1 (a 5.2 percent decline). However, despite the overall drop in home runs, they averaged a slightly greater HR/FB rate, 12.1 percent to 12.5 percent, an overall 3.3 percent rise. As a group, just 15 of 35 hit more home runs (42.9 percent) but 19 of 35 (54.3 percent) did manage a greater HR/FB rate.

I was a bit surprised/dismayed at these results, hoping for something a little more eye-popping. It’s possible (nay, likely) that these numbers are skewed by sample size so in the future I’d like to take a more comprehensive look at the data. Fangraphs, the source for the HR/FB data, has numbers on hand for the last 10 seasons, which will allow me to look at nine different seasons with nine different sets of potential home run gainers and potential home run decliners. Assuming group sizes similar to above (about 30 players per season) that should mean around 300 data sets for each group, a much more error-friendly number.

What are your thoughts on the numbers above or my method? Anything I missed. Let me know in the comments section.

Read full story · Comments { 5 }

A Quick Look at BABIP and the Adrian Gonzalez Problem

By on December 3, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Adrian Gonzalez started 2011 strong batting .314 on May 1, .329 on June 1 and .352 on July 1. No one was surprised to see him among the league leaders in average in his first year with the Red Sox — Fenway Park was built in 1912 with Gonzalez in mind — but the .390 BABIP Gonzalez sported on July 1 seemed too good to be true. Surely A-Gon’s luck would change and his average would drop accordingly.

That wasn’t really the case as Gonzalez cooled off a tad in the second half but finished the year at .338 with a .380 BABIP, easily new career highs. Entering 2011 Gonzalez had a career BABIP of .310 in his seven seasons with Texas and San Diego, but in 2011 with the Red Sox he posted a BABIP under .347 in just one of the season’s six months.

We know that BABIP fluctuates from year to year for every player, but every once in a while a player puts up a season that defies his career norms. Sometimes it’s the result of a change in ballpark (as in Gonzalez’s case) and sometimes it seems like dumb luck (Alex Gordon‘s .358 BABIP in 2011). As fantasy owners the trouble is deciding at which point we can reasonably expect these fluky seasons to continue. Ryan Howard was batting .290 on May 1 last season thanks to a .354 BABIP. Is May 1 too soon to conclude that Howard’s in for a good season or do we need to wait a little longer? Common wisdom tells us that yes, one month does not a season make, but what about two months? Three?

To help answer this question I looked at BABIPs of the 145 qualifying batters from 2011. I calculated each player’s BABIP for six different days on the season: May 1, June 1, July 1, August 1, September 1 and October 1 (essentially every month). Then I compared their BABIPs at each point to their end-of-season BABIP to see what kind of correlations there were. The results are below. The closer the r-squared values are to 1.0, the greater the degree of correlation.

What we see here is both predictable and exciting. As we’d expect, as the year progresses a player’s BABIP becomes more and more representative of what we’ll see at the end of the season. What I didn’t expect to see was the large increase from June 1 to July 1. This jump tells me that after the first three months of the season we really get an idea of how much luck goes into a player’s BABIP.

When Gonzalez had a .361 BABIP on June 1, we should have still remained rather skeptical about his ability to continue such an off-the-chart season, and for the most part we did; the correlation between BABIPs after two months (June 1) and end-of-season numbers is just .335. When Gonzalez had a .390 BABIP on July 1, we can really start to feel comfortable with his ability to continue hitting at that rate.

If luck was the only factor causing fluctuations in a player’s BABIP, then we’d expect a straight, linear line above that rose at a constant rate from beginning to end. Because luck is not the only factor that causes BABIP to fluctuate (changes in approach, ballpark or skill also enter the equation), we see the non-linear curve above. From this curve we can draw one real, usable conclusion that should prove helpful as you look to make trades during the season. When the calendar turns to July, you pretty much know who each player is for that season. Because you read this post today you know this but your league mates don’t. Use that to your advantage.

For more great stuff like this, subscribe to Baseball Professor by email or through your favorite feed reader!

Read full story · Comments { 0 }
  • 2012 MLB Closer Chart
  • About BaseballProf
  • 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings
  • xBA/xBABIP By Year
  • Contact
  • #TheseAreStats
  • 2011 Draft Preview
  • 2012 Fantasy Preview
  • Buy/Sell
  • Daily Dozen
  • Daily SP Matchup Ratings
  • Draft Strategies
  • FAAB Five
  • Player Movement
  • Podcast
  • Power Rankings
  • Professor's Blog
  • Top 100 Offseason Questions
  • Top 200 Fantasy Rankings
  • Twice is Nice
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009