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Using Average Home Run Distance to Project Home Run Totals

By on January 3, 2012 | Comments { 3 }

Yesterday I wrote a post concerning Jacoby Ellsbury‘s sudden power surge last season. In that post I concluded Ellsbury would see his home run total decline in 2012 (shocking!) but I found some interesting connections between a player’s HR/FB rate, his average home run distance and his average ball speed off the bat. As it turns out, when a player’s HR/FB rate is disproportionately greater than the other two stats, he tends to suffer a drop in home run production the following season. This is what we’d expect and it’s what the numbers suggest.

One of our commenters wondered if the opposite was true. If a player’s HR/FB rate was disproportionately lower than his average homer distance and average speed off the bat,  does he tend to have a better power season the next year? I looked into that today.

But first, here’s a quick recap of the data we saw yesterday regarding expected home run decliners. In that Ellsbury post I noted 44 potential home run decliners whose HR/FB rates were disproportionately high (minimum 15 home runs hit during the 2010 season). Today I narrowed that number down to 29 by only including players who had at least 400 plate appearances in both 2010 and 2011. I also added a comparison of HR/FB rates from year to year to take into account fluctuations in plate appearances among these 29 players. The results are below.

For our pool of potential home run decliners, the average home run total fell from 26.9 in 2010 to 21.9 in 2011, an 18.2 percent drop. The average player’s HR/FB rate fell from 15.6 percent to 13.8 percent, a gap which represents an overall 12.2 percent decline. As a group, 23 of the 29 players hit fewer home runs (79.3 percent) and 21 of 29 had a lower HR/FB rate (72.4 percent). Those numbers seem significant enough to me.

As for our pool of potential home run gainers (those with disproportionately low HR/FB rates), there were 35 players who fit our criteria. Those players are listed below.

Rather unexpectedly, this group of players also averaged fewer home runs from one year to the next, 21.2 to 20.1 (a 5.2 percent decline). However, despite the overall drop in home runs, they averaged a slightly greater HR/FB rate, 12.1 percent to 12.5 percent, an overall 3.3 percent rise. As a group, just 15 of 35 hit more home runs (42.9 percent) but 19 of 35 (54.3 percent) did manage a greater HR/FB rate.

I was a bit surprised/dismayed at these results, hoping for something a little more eye-popping. It’s possible (nay, likely) that these numbers are skewed by sample size so in the future I’d like to take a more comprehensive look at the data. Fangraphs, the source for the HR/FB data, has numbers on hand for the last 10 seasons, which will allow me to look at nine different seasons with nine different sets of potential home run gainers and potential home run decliners. Assuming group sizes similar to above (about 30 players per season) that should mean around 300 data sets for each group, a much more error-friendly number.

What are your thoughts on the numbers above or my method? Anything I missed. Let me know in the comments section.

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A Quick Look at BABIP and the Adrian Gonzalez Problem

By on December 3, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

Adrian Gonzalez started 2011 strong batting .314 on May 1, .329 on June 1 and .352 on July 1. No one was surprised to see him among the league leaders in average in his first year with the Red Sox — Fenway Park was built in 1912 with Gonzalez in mind — but the .390 BABIP Gonzalez sported on July 1 seemed too good to be true. Surely A-Gon’s luck would change and his average would drop accordingly.

That wasn’t really the case as Gonzalez cooled off a tad in the second half but finished the year at .338 with a .380 BABIP, easily new career highs. Entering 2011 Gonzalez had a career BABIP of .310 in his seven seasons with Texas and San Diego, but in 2011 with the Red Sox he posted a BABIP under .347 in just one of the season’s six months.

We know that BABIP fluctuates from year to year for every player, but every once in a while a player puts up a season that defies his career norms. Sometimes it’s the result of a change in ballpark (as in Gonzalez’s case) and sometimes it seems like dumb luck (Alex Gordon‘s .358 BABIP in 2011). As fantasy owners the trouble is deciding at which point we can reasonably expect these fluky seasons to continue. Ryan Howard was batting .290 on May 1 last season thanks to a .354 BABIP. Is May 1 too soon to conclude that Howard’s in for a good season or do we need to wait a little longer? Common wisdom tells us that yes, one month does not a season make, but what about two months? Three?

To help answer this question I looked at BABIPs of the 145 qualifying batters from 2011. I calculated each player’s BABIP for six different days on the season: May 1, June 1, July 1, August 1, September 1 and October 1 (essentially every month). Then I compared their BABIPs at each point to their end-of-season BABIP to see what kind of correlations there were. The results are below. The closer the r-squared values are to 1.0, the greater the degree of correlation.

What we see here is both predictable and exciting. As we’d expect, as the year progresses a player’s BABIP becomes more and more representative of what we’ll see at the end of the season. What I didn’t expect to see was the large increase from June 1 to July 1. This jump tells me that after the first three months of the season we really get an idea of how much luck goes into a player’s BABIP.

When Gonzalez had a .361 BABIP on June 1, we should have still remained rather skeptical about his ability to continue such an off-the-chart season, and for the most part we did; the correlation between BABIPs after two months (June 1) and end-of-season numbers is just .335. When Gonzalez had a .390 BABIP on July 1, we can really start to feel comfortable with his ability to continue hitting at that rate.

If luck was the only factor causing fluctuations in a player’s BABIP, then we’d expect a straight, linear line above that rose at a constant rate from beginning to end. Because luck is not the only factor that causes BABIP to fluctuate (changes in approach, ballpark or skill also enter the equation), we see the non-linear curve above. From this curve we can draw one real, usable conclusion that should prove helpful as you look to make trades during the season. When the calendar turns to July, you pretty much know who each player is for that season. Because you read this post today you know this but your league mates don’t. Use that to your advantage.

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12 Early Thoughts on Starting Pitching in 2012

By on November 8, 2011 | Comments { 5 }

True to our site’s name, we’ve been doing a lot of stat-heavy, intensive articles here at Baseball Professor. They aren’t crazy in-depth studies like you’ll find on other sites because we do our best to keep them around 1,000 words and manageable for people of all levels of baseball knowledge, but they aren’t 20 minute fluff pieces either.

That’s what this article is!

To break up the long prose and sometimes convoluted stats, I thought I’d sit down and write a bunch of thoughts I have about the state of starting pitching in 2012. I’ll avoid just asking questions since we’ve already gone and listed a bunch of those in our Top 100 Offseason Questions series, so my hope is that this article inspires a little discussion in the comments section. To our frequent commenters (yeah, there’s a few of you) we thank you for reading our articles and contributing your thoughts. To our hundreds of loyal readers who don’t comment frequently, what are you waiting for?! Anyway, here are some of my early offseason thoughts on starting pitching for your (hopeful) commenting pleasure:

  1. It came across the news wire yesterday that Melky Cabrera has been shipped to San Francisco in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez. If you read yesterday’s other article regarding Alex Gordon‘s value next season, you already know I downgraded his run and RBI potential because it’s likely that Cabrera was going to regress. Now, with his bat completely removed from the lineup, we have to wonder where all that extra production is going to come from. As for Sanchez, he finished with the 48th best home run rate last season out of 145 pitchers that threw at least 100 innings and he’s actually moving from a park that discourages home runs to one that downright punishes home run hitters. The average non-San Fran NL West offense last season ranked 16.5 in the league in runs scored whereas the average non-KC AL Central offense ranked 15.8th. There’s not a ton of difference here. If anything I sort of like the move since the Royals have a better chance at a stronger offense as of today.
  2. Do you know Yu Darvish? Over the last five years in Japan he’s compiled a 75-28 record and a sub-2.00 ERA. Many believe he’d be the ace of many current MLB rotations. It’s not decided if/where he’ll pitch, but if he does become available it’s going to be something to keep an eye on.
  3. With the Rays picking up James Shields‘ extension, it looks unlikely that they’ll trade their ace. Who are some names to watch for offseason movement? Gio Gonzalez, Wandy Rodriguez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Ricky Nolasco, Jeremy Guthrie and some less important names have been rumored to be available. Of those names I think Gonzalez has the most to lose from a fantasy perspective. In the unlikely event he’s traded, he’ll likely go to a contender with a better offense, but I’d hate to have him leave that ballpark.
  4. I’m bullish on Jon Lester in 2012. Maybe it’s the Red Sox fan in me, but Lester was the only member of the team’s rotation to come forward and really acknowledge their lack of effort, and with his semi-contrite half-confession (at this point I’ll take what I can get) and the team’s new management, I can’t help but think it’s all systems go heading forward. I’m willing to gamble on Lester being a low-tier ace (read: top 10 SP) next season.
  5. Speaking of the Red Sox, it’s no surprise that they were again among the league’s most potent offenses, but with John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka victims of Tommy John, two-fifths of the Boston rotation is currently vacant. The Yankees are having issues of their own, so is it any surprise that the Red Sox and Yankees are bumbling big money teams while the Rays, and their dearth of young pitching, continue to threaten for the division and the Rangers have made back-to-back World Series appearances, this time on the back of a top-10 starting rotation? Enough with the ranting. From a fantasy perspective, whoever wins those rotation spots in Boston and New York are likely to stumble into a few wins, but don’t let that change how you value them as fantasy contributors. Somehow Lackey ended up with 12 wins and a .500 record, besting Doug Fister‘s 11-13 mark (but not his 2.83 ERA). Wins suck.
  6. The more I look at Brandon Beachy‘s stats, the more impressed I am with him as a pitcher. He had a 3.19 FIP, the eighth best O-Contact% (percent of pitches outside the strike zone that batters swing and miss at) of the 145 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings and the 16th best strikeout-to-walk ratio. Expect big things from this kid.
  7. Justin Verlander finished with a .236 BABIP against, the fourth lowest rate of said 145 pitchers. We know this rate fluctuates wildly for pitchers from year to year, so how much regression should Verlander see? His previous career low was .279. If the relationship between his FIP, xFIP and ERA tells us anything, it says we should expect an ERA over 3.00 next year. Either way, that will certainly be elite.
  8. I don’t understand Matt Cain. 2011 was the first time I had ever conceded that Cain was as good as his inexplicable peripherals indicate and then he replicated them again. His .260 BABIP is now the norm and not an outlier (career .265) and his while his career 4.26 xFIP depicts a pitcher better suited to be a team’s number three, Cain is every bit the ace that Tim Lincecum is. Between Cain, Lincy and Madison Bumgarner, it’s no wonder why the Giants felt they could let Sanchez go.
  9. Who’s the real Justin Masterson? Is it the guy who can’t get lefties out and masquerades as a legitimate part of a major league rotation or the guy who shuts down elite offenses and masquerades as the ace of a rebuilding team’s rotation? I have no friggen clue…yet.
  10. I do not believe in Josh Collmenter so don’t even think about drafting him next year. He allows too many fly balls (47%) for the park he plays in and his BABIP (.255) is too low.
  11. Even though I badmouthed him all season, it might be time to buy Vance Worley. His end-of-season BABIP (.283) isn’t awfully low and his FIP (3.32) is actually very good. He’s always had great control in the minors, but I do wonder if he’ll replicate that 8.13 K/9 from last season. My thought is no.
  12. I feel bad for anyone in a keeper league who needs to decide what to do with Ubaldo Jimenez. I wouldn’t wish that kind of mental torture on anyone. He has so much potential but we haven’t seen him pitch well since early 2010. That’s like nine months of baseball without a stretch that gives you any semblance of confidence. Seriously, how do you evaluate this guy? Do you take the chance that he’s the Jimenez of old and hold onto him or do you cut your losses and play it safe with someone like Aramis Ramirez? Maybe you roll the dice and go with the uber-talented Colby Rasmus. I do think Toronto is a good situation for him. By the way, I’ve been describing my offseason dilemma this whole time. Tell me what to do!
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BaseballProf's Almost-End-Of-World Series Update

By on October 26, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

It’s been awhile since you’ve heard from us here at Baseball Professor, but that doesn’t mean the behind-the-scenes work came to a hault. Here are some things we’ve done since you last saw us:

  • Completed the SportsProfs Fantasy Sports Network which you can find at www.sportsprofs.com. On our main site you’ll see all of our updated posts from both Baseball Professor and Football Professor as well as our most recent tweets which George Fitopoulos does a great job of updating (especially on NFL Sundays). You can follow us @BaseballProf and @PigskinProf if you ever need some quick advice.
  • Completed our rough ranking of the top 200 players for 2012 fantasy baseball. We’ll be releasing these players with 200 individual posts starting around the holidays and leading up to draft time.
  • Begun work on our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which will be available in the spring of 2012. In combination with our top 200 posts series, this will be one of the most comprehensive fantasy draft guides available. We’re even working on our state-of-the-art Blob Rater, which will help you get a quick, yet complete look at any player in the league. Sounds awesome, right?
  • Compiled our official list of offseason questions, aptly named BaseballProf’s Top 100 Offseason Questions. Over the next five months we’ll use these 100 questions as the backbone of the research work we’ll be doing to prepare you for 2012. These questions range from player-specific queries such as “Is Danny Espinosa’s HR/SB combo worth the hit in average?” to more in-depth probations such as “With hitting down across the league, are save chances on the rise?” You won’t want to miss our answers to any of these (and if you subscribe to Baseball Professor, you won’t have to!).

So don’t put your fantasy team on the back burner just because the year is almost over. Stay tuned here at Baseball Professor for up-to-date fantasy baseball advice while the hot stove is keeping us warm, and stay tuned at SportsProfs.com for your fantasy football coverage, too.

Remember, champions know there’s never an offseason.

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Preseason Predictions Revisited: NL East

By on October 2, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

This post represents the two-thirds mark of our Preseason Predictions Revisited series and while we haven’t done too awfully forecasting an entertaining 2011 season, there have been a few predictions we’ve missed badly on. Hindsight is 20/20, but it’s also pretty hilarious. Let’s see what other awful prognostications we missed on, this time focusing on the NL East.

48. Craig Kimbrel will claim the closers role for the Braves by May and strikeout 100 batters. His K/9 was an astonishing 17.42 last year in 20.2 innings.

  • Kimbrel recorded his first of 46 saves back in March and never looked back. Those saves and his ridiculous 127 strikeouts (not to mention his 2.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP) made Kimbrel the game’s best closer in 2011.

49. Chipper Jones will play in 140 games and bat .300 with 20 home runs and 80 RBI, providing great value for those fantasy owners who took a chance on him.

  • Chipper played in 126 games and hit .275 with 18 homers and 70 RBI. Over 140 games that line improves to 20 homers on 78 RBI so on a per-game pace Chris was right on target.

50. Dan Uggla will disappoint with a batting average in the .250s. A low line-drive percentage and a lack of speed didn’t support his career high .330 BABIP last year.

  • “Disappoint” would be putting his first half nicely, and overall his .233 average fell below Chris’ range. How the heck did this guy put that hit streak together?

51. Mike Minor may not have won a rotation spot out of spring training but he’ll still contend for the NL rookie of the year. In 40.2 innings last year his K/9 was an impressive 9.52 and he showed good control (2.43 BB/9).

  • Umm, we meant Brandon Beachy.

52. Anibal Sanchez will have more strikeouts than teammate Josh Johnson. He finally pitched close to 200 innings last season and has no health questions entering the year. He had a K/9 of 7.25 last year and he threw harder than any other year of his career, averaging a career best 91.3 MPH on his fastball.

  • Sanchez’s K/9 jumped from 7.25 to 9.26 as he racked up 202 punchouts. Even if Johnson didn’t get hurt those 202 Ks probably would have been enough to top the Marlins ace anyway. Johnson’s career best is 191 strikeouts.

53. Logan Morrison will hit 10 times as many home runs as last year. Although he only hit two home runs in 244 at-bats he did have 20 doubles and seven triples. At 6-foot-3 and 237 pounds there’s definitely more room for him to grow in the power department.

  • Chris hit a home run on this prediction. Morrison hit 11.5 times as many home runs as last year in twice as many at-bats.

54. Ricky Nolasco’s ERA will be under 3.50. The average pitcher had a K/BB ratio of 2.17 last year while Nolasco’s was 4.45. Sure, home runs are a problem for him but he let up a career high 28 in 2008 and he still had a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Plus, his K/BB ratio that year wasn’t as good as it was last year.

  • Nolasco finished with a 4.67 ERA and has officially landed on my “do not draft due to perennial disappointment” list.

55. Brad Emaus will have double digit home runs and stolen bases for the Mets. His on-base percentage in the minors the last two years was .402 and .395, respectively.

  • How about zero home runs and zero RBI. At some point you need playing time.

56. Jose Reyes will score 100 runs, steal 40 bases and hit double-digit home runs. He knows those numbers might make him baseball’s next $100 million man in the offseason.

  • Make it 101 runs, 39 steals and seven home runs. Those numbers were just a tick short of what Chris predicted, but his .337 average and overall good health will still make him baseball’s next $100 million man.

57. Lucas Duda will hit 15 home runs. Carlos Beltran is going to miss games and the Mets really like Duda’s bat. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound Duda hit 27 home runs last year in 509 at-bats last year splitting time between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors.

  • Beltran did not miss time and Duda was forced to wait until the All-Star Break before really getting a chance. He did manage 10 homers in 301 at-bats, but it’s not quite what we expected.

58. The news on Chase Utley is certainly ominous but he’s defied the odds before by returning from both hip surgery and thumb surgery earlier than expected. He gets 400-plus at-bats this year.

  • Utley finished with 398 at-bats, but while the at-bats were there, the production still wasn’t.

59. I’d rather have Cliff Lee pitching game seven of the World Series, but Cole Hamels will be the better fantasy pitcher. Their ERAs will be similar but Hamels will have a lot more strikeouts. He’s also younger and he doesn’t have chronic back problems.

  • Lee finished as the eighth-ranked starting pitchers. Hamels finished 20th. Their ERAs were similar (2.79 for Hamels, 2.40 for Lee), but Lee racked up the strikeouts as he K-ed 238 batters this year…over a batter an inning.

60. Jimmy Rollins will hit 20 home runs and steal 25 bases. He’s finally healthy after being plagued by injuries last year. The Phillies will need Rollins, who’s in a contract year, to come up big in a lineup missing Jayson Werth and Chase Utley.

  • I suppose 16 home runs and 30 steals (46 combined) is pretty close to what Chris predicted (45 combined).

61. Michael Morse will hit 25 home runs. He hit 15 home runs in 266 at-bats last year and he locked up a starting spot in left field after a strong spring. He’ll also bat fifth in the lineup behind Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche.

  • Morse exceeded 25 homers as he hit 31 with a .303 average. Those totals were pretty much in line with his per-game averages from 2010 so we may see more seasons like this from Morse in the future.

62. Jordan Zimmermann will have an era under 3.75, a WHIP in the 1.20s and 175 strikeouts. He’s over a year removed from Tommy John surgery and his fastball is back in the mid-90s.

  • Zimmermann was better than 3.75 and 1.20 (3.18 and 1.15) but he didn’t approach 175 Ks (just 124).

63. Nationals manager Jim Riggleman is using the dreaded closer by committee approach, but Drew Storen will end the year with 30-plus saves.

  • Jim Riggle-who? Storen saved 43 games. Just like the rest of these predictions, I’d say Chris did a pretty good job. Hopefully we did just as well with our NL Central predictions, but we’ll look at those next.
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James Shields And 11 Other Players I'm Skeptical Of After 2011

By on September 30, 2011 | Comments { 0 }

The season’s just ended and already I’m raising my eyebrow at the season James Shields just had. And I mean that literally. I’m actually raising my eyebrow as we speak. It’s no secret that everyone here at Baseball Professor loved Shields’ value at the start of the season — he was coming off a disastrous 2009 season after all — but is he really as good as his 2.82 ERA suggests? His previous career-best ERA was 3.56, and even with his awesome numbers from this year his career ERA is still just a tick under 4.00 at 3.96.

Shields isn’t the only player whose 2011 success will be met with skepticism. Here are 11 other guys who’s great years will be tough to follow.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox

Guys call him Tacoby Ellsbury, ladies call him the Navajo Prince and surely many fantasy owners were calling him Savior after the stunningly awesome year he put together. If you had Ellsbury in your “Who will lead the Red Sox in home runs?” pool then we’d love to have you write for us. Can you believe he just had the first 30/30 season in Red Sox history? Ellsbury’s 2011 numbers thrust him into the debate over who should go in the first round next year, but is his stat line repeatable? And how many question marks did I just use?

Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

I swear I’m not going to name all the best players from 2011, but Kemp’s 39-homer, 40-steal season is going to be hard to replicate. He finished with career bests in BABIP and HR/FB rate, and while we expect someone of Kemp’s caliber (who’s also in his prime) to get better each year, his ability to match those two numbers will go a long way toward whether we look at his 2012 as a disappointment or the start of something very special.

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees

Seriously. I’m not going to just name all the best players. Skepticism in Granderson’s case is more than warranted, though. When he first moved to Yankee Stadium last season we expected it to be a boon to his power totals, but the Grandy Man (I hate John Sterling) once again struggled against left-handed pitchers. This season he clobbered lefties, finishing with a higher average and a better home run rate versus southpaws. Much of that has been credited to a change in approach, and we’ve seen players like David Ortiz, Nelson Cruz and Jose Bautista become stars after tweaking their mechanics, but is Granderson next in line? (Oh, Ortiz also makes this list. A .300 average? Yeah, right.)

Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers

Avila came out of nowhere to finish the year as the third-ranked catcher in fantasy. Can he repeat a .295/18/82 season? There’s still about five months between now and next year’s fantasy drafts so we’ll see what Avila’s ADP looks like next year, but my guess is people are going to remain very skeptical of him. I have a hard time seeing him get drafted any better than seventh or eighth among catchers next year, meaning he’ll probably fall to somewhere in the 150s to 180s overall. That could make him a good value…if he can repeat.

Michael Young, 1B/2B/3B, Texas Rangers

Young had his best year since 2006. It was his first 200-hit season since 2007 and just his second 100-RBI season. On top of that, his .338 average was a new career best. Young is in a great lineup and a great ballpark, but his .367 BABIP was also a new career high and he finished with just 11 home runs. It wouldn’t take much for that .338/11/103 line to fall to something resembling .300/11/85 and even though third base is shallow, that’s a very replaceable line.

Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals

You’re seriously surprised to see Gordon on this list? Any time someone falters for as long as Gordon had, his success is bound to be met with skepticism. Just like we said with Young, Gordon’s .303/23/101 season (with 17 steals) could pretty easily become .280/18/80/15, and while that’s still very useful, it’s not quite as impactful. Thankfully, the skepticism surrounding Gordon will likely prevent his draft stock from rising too high.

Ian Kennedy, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Kennedy is one of the few players who’s playoff performance will likely have a major impact on his 2012 fantasy draft positioning. If he pitches like the 21-win ace he was this year, then people will be fighting to draft him. If he falters, that will only give skeptics like myself more than enough reason to doubt him. Luckily for you, and regardless of how Kennedy performs, we’ll be taking a nice, long look at his 2011 season in the coming months so you’ll know exactly what to make of him next year.

Josh Beckett, SP, Boston Red Sox

Beckett is injury prone, and we witnessed that once again as the Red Sox righty missed a few starts here and there with some minor injuries. The good news is that Beckett was so good when he was pitching that he was the only starter ranked in the top 10 at the position who tossed fewer than 200 innings. In fact, Johnny Cueto was the next sub-200 inning starter and he finished 18th.

Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

There will likely be less skepticism surrounding Hellickson’s 2011 success than there ought to be because so many people predicted he’d pitch well. What’s bothering me is three-fold. First, his home/road splits show some unnerving signs that he’s not quite there yet. Second, his 2.95 ERA isn’t a true indicator of how well he pitched this season. Third, he still pitches in the AL East, and New York, Boston and Toronto are three of the top five or so offenses in baseball.

C.J. Wilson, SP, Texas Rangers

Wilson has proven he can be an effective starter, something that I wasn’t sure he’d be able to do after so many years as a reliever. What worries me here is that Wilson is going to be a free agent and he seems like the perfect candidate for some team to overpay to get and then watch implode. Then again, I’ve watched the Red Sox do this on three occasions over the last few years (Beckett, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka) so maybe I’m just jaded.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, San Francisco Giants

Amazingly, Vogelsong had an ERA over 3.03 in just one month this whole season (August) as he proved doubters wrong again and again. Now with a whole offseason of doubt ahead of him, it’s going to take something special for him to put together a similar year.

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7 Things I Learned In 2011

By on September 28, 2011 | Comments { 2 }

Well here we are, the final day of the regular season (for most teams at least). Whether you came in first, last or somewhere in the middle it was one hell of a ride. There were definitely plenty of shockers with Jacoby Ellsbury not only leading the Red Sox in home runs (32), but becoming the team’s first ever 30/30 player and Adam Dunn out-producing his batting average (.159) with strikeouts (177). I don’t think that’s ever happened before. What about Ian Kennedy being tied for the most wins (21) in the National League with Clayton Kershaw? Or Matt Kemp making a run at the triple crown!

Baseball is a great numbers game, which is what makes it the best fantasy game to play, but no one is perfect at it. We all must keep learning every year and hopefully one day we crack the secret to eternal success in fantasy baseball (if there even is one), but until that time you are stuck with my silly observations. So here are some things that I learned from the 2011 baseball season: (Note: Keep in mind this was written before any games were played on the final day.)

Observation #1: Pitching is plentiful, but that doesn’t mean the top guys don’t matter.

If you thought last year was the year of the pitcher then 2011 was a step towards the decade of dominance for pitchers. This year, a whopping 16 pitchers had an ERA under 3.00, which is up from 15 last year, but only one pitcher accomplished the feat in 2007. Now does that mean that you should wait on pitching? At first glance, you would think yes because there are more fish available to catch in the proverbial sea so why should you waste an early pick on a pitcher? However, I learned this year that it’s better to go the other way and target top talent because they will separate you from the rest of the league in terms of pitching.

In the Professor’s league, I built a rotation of Clayton Kershaw (keeper), Cliff Lee (trade), James Shields (trade), Mat Latos (trade) and Tim Hudson (trade) and rode those guys all the way to championship week. Obviously other factors were part of the run, but my pitching set me apart from the rest of the teams. If you had a rotation consisting of an ace and then pitchers like Daniel Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Ivan Nova and Hiroki Kuroda you definitely had a good staff, but it would be more ordinary than extraordinary. Now obviously you can’t draft all of that top talent in pitching, which is why you must read on.

Observation #2: Streaming hitters (not pitchers) might be a better strategy than you think.

We always talk about streaming pitchers as a great strategy these days because of the abundance of options, especially in a 10-team league. It’s time to throw that strategy out the window. It’s a good strategy for maybe a certain week in a head-to-head league, but if you plan on doing it on a regular basis then you are going to get burned. Streaming hitters on the other hand is where it’s at. I won’t get into the draft strategy (that’s for next preseason), but I’m not saying to draft pitching over hitting next year. You know how I assembled my super staff? Trade hitting for pitching during the season. You assemble the hitting in the draft and trade it once you know think you know who is going to be good. Hey, if you read Baseball Professor in March/April you would have been turned on to guys like Shields, Kennedy and Josh Beckett early.

Here’s the reasoning for streaming hitters: It’s almost a hidden curse when you assemble too many good hitters on one team. You know the book called “Everyone Poops,” well everyone also slumps. Instead of benching a cold bat for a hot player off waivers, you are stuck starting a stud like Evan Longoria, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Teixeira and others because they can go off at any second. Now, I’m not saying it’s bad to have stars on your team (they are stars for a reason), but if you are an owner who pays close attention all year, you could be better off trading some of those stud hitters for an edge in pitching. As always, strategies are dependent on league size/style, but I find that this works for 10-team leagues and probably works better for head-to-head than roto.

Observation #3: Closers are still as unpredictable as ever.

The league leader for this year’s crop of closers? Jose Valverde, who at this time is a perfect 48 of 48 in save opportunities. Other names that eclipsed the 40-save mark were Craig Kimbrel, John Axford, J.J. Putz, Mariano Rivera, Heath Bell, Drew Storen and Joel Hanrahan. Case closed.

Observation #4: Never rely on rookies!

A lot of rookies will have short-term value during a season, but you should never go into a year and expect a rookie to start for you every day. Even Eric Hosmer went through stretches where he wasn’t worthy of a starting spot, but if you picked him up and decided he was the guy you wanted to roll with then you were stuck with a .250 hitter with no power in the month of June. Of course, Hosmer was the exception this year because there was a lot more good than bad, but that was not the case for guys like Brandon Belt, Mike Moustakas and even Danny Espinosa (unless you didn’t mind the sub-.220 average for three months). On the pitcher’s side we saw a lot of first half success with guys like Michael Pineda, Brandon Beachy and Alexi Ogando, but only Beachy really carried it through to the end.

Observation #5: Injury history should be noted, but don’t overrate it.

This one hits home for your ol’ Professor George because I’ve been a long time owner of Ian Kinsler and despite my efforts to tout him as a great second baseman I would always be shot down with the same argument, “He’ll be lucky to play 130 games.” Well talent is talent and Kinsler definitely has it. If you draft him you should note that his injury history is there, but never bank on a player getting injured. If you like a player’s talent then draft him and have a backup plan in the draft as well. If he ends up getting hurt then you at least aren’t caught off guard, but if he stays healthy (like Kinsler did this year) then you probably got a nice bargain on draft day. Just remember that Jimmy Rollins led the league in plate appearances in 2009 after playing just 137 games in 2008, Rickie Weeks led in 2010 after just 37 games in ’09 and now Kinsler is third this year after just 103 games in ’10. Injuries aren’t always consistent.

Observation #6: Speed guys are EVERYWHERE.

The amount of speed that was available by the All-Star break was ridiculous this season. We had call ups like Ben Revere (34 SB/116 G), Tony Campana (24 SB/ 94 G), Desmond Jennings (19 SB/65 G), Dee Gordon (23 SB/55 G) and Jemile Weeks (22 SB/96 G) to name a few and several other rookies, like Espinosa (17 SB) and even Mark Trumbo (9 SB) running the bases effectively all season. To compare to last year, there were a total of 48 players that stole at least 20 bases this year (that doesn’t include Jennings’ 19 in 65 games), which is 13 more than in 2010. What this tells us is that you don’t need to draft speed-only guys early in your draft, just pay attention (read: #8) to who’s swiping the bases and snag them as needed.

Observation #7: If you pay attention, you will do just fine.

This is the most basic of all observations, but a lot of people don’t realize how much it can benefit them. In this day and age we have mobile alerts, emails, mobile apps, plenty of ways to check on our teams and league happenings. If someone drops Jennings or Stephen Strasburg you should know. If someone trades for a starting pitcher and leaves himself weak at third base, make him an offer to help fix that hole. If you have a replacement-level outfielder on your bench and he isn’t playing on typical slow Thursday drop him and pick up someone that’s playing. Don’t just sit around and wait. It’s the little things that separate owners over the season and if you missed the playoffs in a head-to-head league or lost by a couple of roto points you have to ask yourself if you did everything you possibly could to win. Hopefully the answer will be yes.

Do you agree with my observations? Do you think they suck? Have any observations of your own? Let’s have a conversation in the comments section! Remember, champions know that there’s never an offseason.

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